India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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SidSoma
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SidSoma » 07 Jul 2020 18:56

Yagnasri wrote:Why do we assume that we have given any concessions?


May be its an acceptance to hold some of the planned actions (like banning all chinese plastic toys and household goods). 1. it is a negiotiation which went of for 2 hours allegedly. So Chinese must have had a few demands

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 07 Jul 2020 19:01

williams wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
Sir, it's not possible for Pakistan to take away Ladakh through a land grab. Salami slicing/ "aman ka tamasha" accompanied by our naivette, yes.

I am not clear about what you mean buy the last two sentences. Mind elaborating a little?


I am saying if the Chinese opt for a shooting war, the terrain in Ladakh and J&K does not allow a 2 front offensive from Pakis and the Chinese at the same time. Pakis can do something only further south through the IB. That means we might have some troops tied up in the west to defend and focus on the Chinese side for offensive operations. So this threat of 2 front war is not as big as it seems after reading your post and looking at the maps.


Some points about a two front war - I'll focus mostly on the army part.
There are very few formations that have the option of fighting either on the Pak, or Chinese front. We can take on Pak without any of the Chinese tasked divisions moving out and vice versa.

We have the equivalent of 43 divisions (taking 3 independent brigades to be 1 division). China can deploy at best 13-14 divisions (which us half
their army) while Pakistan can deploy 30, assuming none are deployed for counter insurgency.
There are very few Indian formations that have the option of being deployed either against Pak or China. These include part of IX corps in Yol
6th mountain div in Bareilly and perhaps a division from III corps in the North east.

We have 65 tank regiments, of which I would assume upto 9 would be based in eastern Ladakh/ Sikkim. Our 56 regiments deployed against Pak
have 45 tanks each, against the 50 Pak regiments with 42 tanks each. That gives us a small numerical superiority, which would not be enough
for a decisive breakthrough in any sector in the West (especially keeping in mind the need for reserves against the Chinese). The PLA in theory has numerical superiority in tanks but very limited scope for deployment due to the terrain - which favors the defender. At best they can hope to wear out our armour in a long war of attrition - that is the opposite of the battle Pak needs to fight, which is short war, where they can claim they won because they did not visibly lose and before their economy collapses.

Since our doctrine is not to claim enemy territory in a war (where we occupy territory like in POK/ Aksai Chin, the terrain makes it extremely difficult), our existing strength and deployment is adequate to defend our country in a 2 front war (while inflicting heavier casualties on the enemy). We win by not losing (which would also be Pakistan's objective in a war against India without Chinese support).

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pushkar.bhat » 07 Jul 2020 19:06

SidSoma wrote:
Yagnasri wrote:Why do we assume that we have given any concessions?


May be its an acceptance to hold some of the planned actions (like banning all chinese plastic toys and household goods). 1. it is a negiotiation which went of for 2 hours allegedly. So Chinese must have had a few demands


Wang Yi had asked Doval what the 5 lettered hashtag starting with C meant. He said it had been trending for a long time. Doval Ji was just trying to explain it in a language that the Chinese understand. That act took about 90 mins. The rest of the 30 mins were for Chai-Biscout being served by respective staff. :rotfl:

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SidSoma » 07 Jul 2020 19:22

pushkar.bhat wrote:Wang Yi had asked Doval what the 5 lettered hashtag starting with C meant. He said it had been trending for a long time. Doval Ji was just trying to explain it in a language that the Chinese understand. That act took about 90 mins. The rest of the 30 mins were for Chai-Biscout being served by respective staff. :rotfl:


Oh Boy.... I hope there are a few recording of that conversation.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chetak » 07 Jul 2020 19:33

schinnas wrote:Long term, India needs to accelerate the internal unraveling of Pakistan so that it stops being a threat. One misses the good old days when their TTP would raid PAF base and take out a few airplanes or take out an ISI HQ. The Balochi freedom fighters, while brave, haven't been able to mount spectacular attacks that TTP did to fight for Pashtun freedom from Pakistan.

If only their TTP can take out half of the PAF awacs, it would be more than enough.



looking at niazi and his daily breast beating about "yevil mudi", we have already got into their heads and messed with their psyche.

that niazi is not being replaced means that this hit wicket serial disaster has put bajwa in an untenable position.

The pakis have got afghanistan to majorly worry about and they just cannot afford to take their eye off the ball there. eyeran, India, taliban, china, russia and the amerikis are all heavy weight contenders in afghanistan that bajwa has to watch out for and if he does not, then the tightrope could just as easily change into a hangman's noose.

bajwa needs a paki friendly dispensation in afghanistan else the afghans will end up doing to the pakis what the pakis are doing to India. The ISI needs to control the drug trade and flow of weapons as well.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 07 Jul 2020 19:39

Deans wrote:
williams wrote:
I am saying if the Chinese opt for a shooting war, the terrain in Ladakh and J&K does not allow a 2 front offensive from Pakis and the Chinese at the same time. Pakis can do something only further south through the IB. That means we might have some troops tied up in the west to defend and focus on the Chinese side for offensive operations. So this threat of 2 front war is not as big as it seems after reading your post and looking at

Since our doctrine is not to claim enemy territory in a war (where we occupy territory like in POK/ Aksai Chin, the terrain makes it extremely difficult), our existing strength and deployment is adequate to defend our country in a 2 front war (while inflicting heavier casualties on the enemy). We win by not losing (which would also be Pakistan's objective in a war against India without Chinese support).

While Tanks are ok, what has been deceive in all operations in the last 100 years from Gulf war 1, Arab Israeli wars, German Blitzkrieg to German defeat and a little later Japanese defeat with the exception to the Vietnam and Afgan war has been Air superiority. And even in these cases Vietnam and Afgan infrastructure was in shambles and they took far more causalities than the Americans or the Russians. Something our babus and Politicals have behaved in a very criminal manner. They were twiddling their thumbs when Pakis acquired Nukes or getting Amraams with good F16 radar's. Some of these people acted in enemies Interests by denying us superiority in critical areas.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Raveen » 07 Jul 2020 19:51

SidSoma wrote:Just want to highlight. There were multiple predictions that post Modi's speech. War will happen in 24 hours and 72 hours etc.

Yet the opposite happened. It would be interesting to know what concessions we have given china to achieve this....


Ha - this is not the end of the story. Its the end of one chapter, there's more to this. No concessions were given, read the clear and concise demand made by Doval to the Hans in today's news.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 07 Jul 2020 20:56

https://twitter.com/AbhishekBhalla7/sta ... 5166234624
Defence Minster @rajnathsingh

reviews roads projects in Ladakh. Instructions to expedite work amid #IndiaChinaFaceOff

-Rs 20,000 crore infrastructure currently planned, including 30 bridges

- Reallignment of track on Durbuk-Shyok- Daulat Beg Oldie road to continue

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Barath » 07 Jul 2020 21:09

Deans wrote:
Since our doctrine is not to claim enemy territory in a war (where we occupy territory like in POK/ Aksai Chin, the terrain makes it extremely difficult), our existing strength and deployment is adequate to defend our country in a 2 front war (while inflicting heavier casualties on the enemy). We win by not losing (which would also be Pakistan's objective in a war against India without Chinese support).


http://www.ssri-j.com/MediaReport/Docum ... ne2018.pdf Pg 13.

Our Land Warfare doctrine is force centric deterrence on the Northern border and force/space centric on the western border,

"Our response along the Western Front will be sharp and swift with the aim of destroying the centre of gravity of the adversary and securing spatial gains"

The doctrine will not/does not touch upon whether we claim and occupy that territory after the war.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 07 Jul 2020 21:12

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/12 ... 9690673156
IMPORTANT UPDATE: Patrolling by Indian Army up to Galwan's PP14 will restart after ALL disengagement phases. Currently joint verification (drone/sat) is on to check relocation of camps and to see if 'landform is restored'. Present buffer zone mutually agreed to avoid friction.
Lets see ... but the real test would be the area between F4-8 on Pangong Tso that the Chinese have occupied.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby schinnas » 07 Jul 2020 21:30

All indications are that India is not being complacent. From conducting night time war exercises (how good are Cheen airforce and hlps in night warfare) in Ladakh to expediting Ladakh road construction very publicly, India is not giving any space to Chinese or internal Chinese to spread FUD and save face. So far it seems nothing has been given in exchange for Cheen withdrawal.

On their part, Cheen seems to be in no mood to leave fingers 4 to 8. I think they will make all arrangements to occupy that area during winter as well. India may occupy some other critical area of China to force a withdrawal. Going kinetic is unlikely to happen.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby LakshmanPST » 07 Jul 2020 21:40

In Pangong negotiations, I guess the starting point of Chinese proposal will be permanently stopping Indian patrols beyond Finger 2...
The lowest Chinese may come down to is allow Indian patroling upto Finger 8 on the condition that they won't remove the Chinese flag and China name markings made on ground... They can then show it as a victory...
-
India's starting point in the negotiation will ofcourse be return of pre-April status and that will include removal of those markings as well...
What I fear is, there will be one group of ppl on the Indian side who would want the Govt. to accept that 2nd proposal of China coz. technically it is return of status quo as the flag and name are not military installations but only markings on the ground...
-
I really hope Govt. will stand its ground of restoring pre-April status and not listen to this camp...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 07 Jul 2020 21:49

ks_sachin wrote:
Rs_singh wrote:
Rs_singh Sir,

The reason we are reactive is because of our defensive posture/ doctrines or is there something lacking in our assessment of the enemy?


ks_sachin, please no Sir for me. The reason we are defensive is political. We do not lack assessment of EN but suffer from self delusion. we expect them to abide by laws, treaties, protocols in the face of history. We will never learn.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby AshishA » 07 Jul 2020 21:55

Rs_singh wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:


ks_sachin, please no Sir for me. The reason we are defensive is political. We do not lack assessment of EN but suffer from self delusion. we expect them to abide by laws, treaties, protocols in the face of history. We will never learn.


We can always learn. Just like chinis like to do legal warfare by making numerous treaties and finding loopholes to take advantage of it, we can do the same. Just because we haven't done it doesn't mean we can't do it. If the Chinis think they are non contact warfare experts, we need to them how wrong they are.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby williams » 07 Jul 2020 22:01

LakshmanPST wrote:
AdityaVM wrote:How can we exploit this to deliver a brutal takedown in return for the blood spilled on 15th of June.?
Because , as far as I am concerned, we haven't yet retaliated against that atrocity.


Our Army retaliated that very night and took out many lizards...
Saying that we haven't retaliated is problematic for two reasons...
1) It is IMHO disrespect to the soldiers who fought that night...
2) It is giving credence to Chinese narrative that they simply killed our soldiers and we did nothing...

Besides, if this way of thinking crosses limits, which Congis are trying to do, it will create unnecessary pressure on Govt. to escalate things when the govt.'s primary objective now is deescalation...


Sir, I think the provocation is planned at the highest level from the Chinese side and our boys responded to it with unimaginable courage and lost their lives out of it. While we respect their sacrifice and give them the highest honor, we cannot go back to the status quo anymore. For the Chinese leadership, their casualties might be plain cannon fooder. For us, it is precious lives lost for silly Chinese adventure in the LAC. What should we do to deter the Chinese from such future planned provocation is the real question. The fear of retaliation should be real. I hope after de-escalation we permanently throw the old no firearms RoE away. The basic right that we give to our soldiers who volunteered to live in these hights and guard the motherland is the right to defend themselves with the training and weapons we provide. Hope GOI understands that now.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 07 Jul 2020 22:22

SidSoma wrote:Just want to highlight. There were multiple predictions that post Modi's speech. War will happen in 24 hours and 72 hours etc.

Yet the opposite happened. It would be interesting to know what concessions we have given china to achieve this....


On the contrary, China is the one that made the concessions: withdraw from four points of contention :Galwan, 2 @ Garga, and at Hot Springs.

And restore all positions to pre-May 5th.
And not Wang Li made the phone call to NSA and not to Foreign Minister.

After the speech only the most checked out person will think everything will be hunky dory.

Speech was followed by preparation and intimation to the world powers.

The Chinese blinked as they did not want forceful eviction.

Thanks for expressing the lurkers views.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 07 Jul 2020 22:26

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/1280430809690673156
IMPORTANT UPDATE: Patrolling by Indian Army up to Galwan's PP14 will restart after ALL disengagement phases. Currently joint verification (drone/sat) is on to check relocation of camps and to see if 'landform is restored'. Present buffer zone mutually agreed to avoid friction.
Lets see ... but the real test would be the area between F4-8 on Pangong Tso that the Chinese have occupied.



This is one of the leading FCs in media.*
Any one posting his news will get three day ban.

On Feb 27th he posted pictures of Wing Cdr. Abhinandan Varthaman without waiting for IAF to inform the family.
Abhi's family was upset but took it in stride as its fauji family.
And one of our admins contributed to the mess with his database.
So any way this is my stance.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Ashokk » 07 Jul 2020 22:30

As per Baba
PLA is building artillery positions at its new camp setup constructed yesterday & day b4 yesterday,This camp is 1.5 km away from face-off point of Galwan.
If China want de-escalation from India then what is the need of artillery positions?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 07 Jul 2020 22:34

Deasn, The following points to be understood after Galwan.
- India is ready to go head to head or toe to toe with China..
- India is ready to take on TSP and its jihadis in Kashmir while taking on China.
- India imposed restrictions on China to reduce the trade surplus by $40 B from $60 B.
- India used the aftermath of confrontation to clear up long pending arms procurements.
- India mostly cleaned out the 0.5 front in the war. Made it 0.10.
- India confronted the dreaded 2 front war and showed its just 1 front war with many theaters.
-The biggest take away is CDS system worked. This is first crisis after CDS was appointed.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 07 Jul 2020 22:36

Williams, Col Babu's and the soldiers parents said it best.
And we are not greater than them.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby schinnas » 07 Jul 2020 22:54

Ramana Sir, not clear what role CDS played, but this event would be most helpful in evolving the working model for CDS. Several gaps from surveillance to intelligence sharing to inter service collaboration would have come out in the open for them to be resolved and improved upon.

This would also reinforce the need for aatmanirbhar bharat. It may catalyse a follow through order for additional 36 or so Mirages. But don't expect the order to be signed before our forces get some good hands on experience with the first lot of Mirages.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sanju » 07 Jul 2020 23:12

I beleive you meant Rafale.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 07 Jul 2020 23:24

From R Rajagopalan

7-7-2020

EXCLUSIVE

Insider secrets revealed
Modi Team resolved
Indo-China stand off

R RAJAGOPALAN
from New Delhi.

At 8.45am on Sunday, July 5 2020 history was made.

Indian army chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane called up defence minister Rajnath Singh to inform him that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was moving out troops from the Y-junction of Galwan Valley, towards its base camp in the rear. Insider is Ajit Doval. And he shared few tips to Shishir Gupta Editor. Confirming details to me Shishir who authored May books on China got first tip off. Similarly Nitin Gokhle Editor of Strategic World an expert on China gave a live video commentary much before Indian news channels brought out salient features. But there was a silent celebrations at PMO. Politically BJP functionaries did not come out to hail this. Naturally the political leadership might have foresaw not to provoke China. At any point of time there are always many slips between the cup and the lip. This correspondent got privileged behind the scene activities thanks to sources. And here are few observations of Shishir Gupta which are reproduced.

The same Sunday evening, between 5pm and 6pm, National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval, also the Special Representative (SR) on the Boundary Dialogue between the two countries, had a candid conversation with Chinese SR Wang Yi (also the country’s foreign minister). Writes Shishir in his despatch.

Ajit Doval at the age of 75 years is active. Unfortunately he was on a self quarantine due to Corona during the month of May got lots of inputs from RAW india’s external spy agency and analysis from joint intelligence committee. Needless to say top brains in Cabinet Committee in Security adopted a political approach. To this victory.
Modi silenced loud mouth frustrated Congress leaders. Who issue often pro China narratives.

Coming out of more than two weeks of quarantine and indisposition during which he monitored the LAC developments from home, NSA Doval stressed the need to restore patrolling rights of the Indian Army on these four points in order to bring peace and tranquillity along the 1597km long Line of Actual Control (LAC) in east Ladakh.

People aware of the matter said that, by Monday evening, the Chinese started moving back at the four contested stand-off points between the two countries — Galwan, Gogra, Hot Springs and Pangong Tso. The PLA and the Indian Army had withdrawn to their respective base camps in the Galwan sector; initial troop withdrawal had begun in Gogra (patrolling point 15) and Hot Springs (patrolling point 17); and the PLA was in the process of dismantling some structures on Finger 4. People aware of the developments said that till such time as the withdrawal is complete, there will be no let up from the Indian forces, which will continue to be deployed, as an “accident” cannot be ruled out.

While these are the first steps taken towards disengagement on the LAC leading to de-escalation, Doval and Wang agreed that both sides will have patrolling rights on the contested points, but will avoid any friction or clash in the future. While the joint secretary-level Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) on border issues will meet soon to implement these decisions on the ground, the two SRs are scheduled to hold talks three weeks later, by which time the withdrawal process should have been completed, the people cited above said.

The development is a culmination of series of meetings between military commanders and diplomatic officials that began after the PLA took an aggressive posture on the LAC in May. India’s response was handed by NSA Doval under guidance from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and in close coordination with Rajnath Singh, home minister Amit Shah and external affairs minister S Jaishankar, who stood in for an indisposed Doval to talk to SR Wang Yi on June 17 after the Indian Army and the PLA clashed at patrolling point 14 in the Galwan sector.

The people said it was a tough conversation, with both sides accusing the other of initiating the border skirmish in which 20 Indian Army soldiers and an unspecified number of Chinese soldiers were killed.

While India will continue to put pressure on China to ensure that the PLA withdraws to its April positions, the country’s national security planners say that the disengagement process will take time, with each point being negotiated by the military commanders on the ground with diplomatic support.

While the PLA were at a disadvantage in Galwan, Gogra and Hot Springs in terms of military positions, the situation at Pangong Tso is in favour of the Chinese, as they have built a road up to Finger 4.

Ultimately, said analysts, it is restoration of Indian patrolling rights on the north banks of Pangong Tso which will determine the success of the Doval-Wang parleys.

“ Even if we say that PLA was showcasing the power differential between China and India, it does not make any sense strategically as the move to acquire few kilometres of territory not only riled up all India including Opposition parties but also severely hit the economic ties (between the countries),” said a senior government official who asked not to be named.

Ends.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 07 Jul 2020 23:25

Sanju wrote:I beleive you meant Rafale.


Obviously that's what he means.
36 Rafale were ordered.

M2K no longer in production

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby vijayk » 07 Jul 2020 23:38

https://twitter.com/Chellaney/status/12 ... 1092879360
By agreeing to a "buffer zone" on the Indian side of the LAC and to restrict Indian patrolling to the west of the confluence of the Galwan and Shyok rivers, India will stay out of the Galwan Valley, thus giving credence to China's freshly minted claim to the entire Galwan Valley.


Image


https://twitter.com/Chellaney/status/12 ... 8524203008
This is unlikely to end well for India, largely because the political leadership in New Delhi, in its eagerness to de-escalate, has given short shrift to the military risk factors. In effect, New Delhi is playing right into China's hands, whetting the aggressor's appetite.

Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 07 Jul 2020 23:44

^^
Hopefully people read the reports fully and carefully. Even the most favorable report can be turned upside down by omitting a few chosen words/phrases.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby BajKhedawal » 08 Jul 2020 00:26

nishant.gupta wrote:Sir, check around 800 meters NE for 4 more.

Image

All have come post 2012 before 2019. Before that, it was just barren land.

Rough calculation puts them at around 15 meters wide each. Assuming the shed next to it is around 3-3.5 meters then the depth also seems to be greater than 5 meters based on shadows falling. Theoretically good enough to fit tanks also!


Tin hat on

These could be deep earth directional tunnel-heads used to artificially cause earthquakes in border India. I believe there have been close to 40 low intensity quakes in Northern, Eastern, and Western border areas in last 3 months.

I read it a year ago, cant recall where that technology exists using explosives deep underground in directional tunnels to cause low intensity earthquakes. I guess that technology is a offshoot of fracking industry, which is know to cause such unintentional low intensity earthquakes.

Tin hat off

Edited once to include that someone in past few pages mentioned satellite sighting of big tunnel boring drill heads in neighborhood.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby LakshmanPST » 08 Jul 2020 00:38

vijayk wrote:https://twitter.com/Chellaney/status/1280393871092879360
By agreeing to a "buffer zone" on the Indian side of the LAC and to restrict Indian patrolling to the west of the confluence of the Galwan and Shyok rivers, India will stay out of the Galwan Valley, thus giving credence to China's freshly minted claim to the entire Galwan Valley.


Image


All media houses have reported that both Indian and Chinese sides are moving 1.5-2km back on their respective sides, which means buffer zone will be on both sides... Even the 2nd screenshot that he shared says the same thing...
Moreover, Shyok is 5km West of PP14... How will moving 1.5km back put us 'West of Shyok river...???
The sentence that Buffer Zone will lie on our side seems to be malicious...

Even if we put that aside, the very screenshot that he shared says that the buffer arrangement is only temporary and normal patrolling would resume after a few days... So, what exactly is Chellaney's point...???

https://twitter.com/Chellaney/status/12 ... 8524203008
This is unlikely to end well for India, largely because the political leadership in New Delhi, in its eagerness to de-escalate, has given short shrift to the military risk factors. In effect, New Delhi is playing right into China's hands, whetting the aggressor's appetite.

Image
[/quote]

Clearly, both sides won't be able to do foot patrolling at PP14 for the next 30 days, not just Indian Army... Once again, the reporter seems to have intentionally mentioned only Indian Army...
Anyway, patrolling would resume after 30 days...
So, how exactly is this arrangement "playing right into China's hands"...
Again, what exactly is his point...???

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramdas » 08 Jul 2020 00:47

@LakshmanPST: Several analysts/intellectuals (some seemed to be genuinely right wing before NaMo's rise) expected positions of influence after NaMo's rise, but did not get what they expected. Bharat Karnad and Brahma Chellaney are prominent among these. They have now taken to indirectly cheering for the INC, without looking beyond their noses to see that the INC has mutated (post PVNR) into a full fledged anti-national organization rather than a political party in the conventional sense. Hope better sense prevails.
Last edited by ramdas on 08 Jul 2020 01:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 08 Jul 2020 01:02

I'm quite sceptical about the surrent situation of disengagement.

If the Chinese objective was to end patrolling and create a no man's land, then they might have achieved this temporarily.

They have for the first time broadcasted a report on CCTV about the entire incident. I find that a little worrying. It either means that they have achieved their objectives. Which I don't really buy or much more likely they plan to attack later. There was a lot of questioning of the absence of information on Chinese SM ( they were completely relying on Indian media so far). So this shift in strategy is quite big.

Just some speculative thoughts on the logic of their current actions:
  • Their logistics might be overstretched. The Galwan is in full spate and this will continue till the end of summer. So they can bring in more stores dump them and stock up for a winter war.
  • Rs_Singh had suggested that they might have brought forward a plan to attack in the September-October period to take advantage of Covid19. They might now have decided to revert to the original timeline
  • They might have been scared off by Uncle's words. They are quite Chicken when it comes to the USA
  • They plan to attack elsewhere. The recent revived claim on Bhutan's territory might be a pointer to their intended target (Tawang?)
  • They are worried by India's economic retaliation. The app ban might not have sounded like a big deal but that shaved off 6 billion off TikTok's value, putting ByteDance's planned IPO at risk. There's bound to be a lot of CCP/SHA money tied into it. Plus it threatens to set off a chain reaction of other countries banning Chinese apps
  • Bodybag phobia: They have been unable to suppress the news of their casualties and it has created some domestic backlash. So they now realise that it might create domestic unrest when they take casualties.
  • Uncle has been sharing satellite imagery freely and it has taken away any element of surprise

The only thing that makes sense to me right now is that they lost their intended element of surprise and will now aim to recover it by attacking at a different time and place.

Their position at Finger 5 seems quite vulnerable to an amphibious attack, but Pangong Tso freezes for around 2-3 weeks during the winter so maybe they want to make a move then?

I am quite worried because no single scenario sounds very convincing which means there's something we are unable to see.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby suryag » 08 Jul 2020 01:18

RaviB sir, your post reflects my thoughts too. Am still not able to see what they achieved ? Did they do this just to gauge our response ? or was it to tire us out through repeated mobilizations ? Was it just that their plans went awry ? or was it a pre-emptive move to thwart any impending attempt from our side to get GB back(may be they got intel suggesting this was impending) but none of the above add up.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Vivasvat » 08 Jul 2020 01:36

RaviB wrote:Just some speculative thoughts on the logic of their current actions:
The only thing that makes sense to me right now is that they lost their intended element of surprise and will now aim to recover it by attacking at a different time and place.

What if their intent is to try to make India spend more on defence while the economy is dipping because of the essence of WuXi (Covid) and keep Indian forces deployed on a high state of alert permanently? They might have been advised by the tactically brilliant but strategically flawed naPaki forces' advisor that India can be bankrupted the same way naPak went bust.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 08 Jul 2020 01:37

vijayk wrote:https://twitter.com/Chellaney/status/1280393871092879360
By agreeing to a "buffer zone" on the Indian side of the LAC and to restrict Indian patrolling to the west of the confluence of the Galwan and Shyok rivers, India will stay out of the Galwan Valley, thus giving credence to China's freshly minted claim to the entire Galwan Valley.


Image


https://twitter.com/Chellaney/status/12 ... 8524203008
This is unlikely to end well for India, largely because the political leadership in New Delhi, in its eagerness to de-escalate, has given short shrift to the military risk factors. In effect, New Delhi is playing right into China's hands, whetting the aggressor's appetite.

Image
Apart from what has already been pointed out by other before ... Read the Hindu piece carefully.

1st line says China will pull back 2 km and India by 1.5 km from clash site (~PP-14). IFFFFFFFFFFFFF they have moved back equally, it means that the Chinese are acknowledging that the LAC is 250 m beyond the PP-14 on their side! Obviously Chellaney has either not read the piece fully and carefully OR he has deliberately ignored it to spin his own narrative.

Plus, as pointed out by other ...
1. This no patrolling is for the next 30 days fro BOTH sides. Will resume after that IFFF everything goes as per plan.
2. Buffer zone is on both side of PP-14, 1.5 km on the Indian side and 2 km on the Chinese side UNLESS Chellaney/IE are suggesting that the LAC is 2 km further from PP-14 on the Chinese side.
3. PP-14 is approx 4.5 km from Indian Army camp @ Shyok/Galwan junction. Moving back by 1.5 km will still leave IA ~ 3 km to the east of the Shyok.

Chellaney has a narrative to spin and he chooses to highlight points that support his narrative while ignoring the rest.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 08 Jul 2020 01:39

This is no victory. The pendulum will swing back. We should be ready for that.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Philip » 08 Jul 2020 01:53

More important than patrolling parts of the LAC on the ground is the ability and quantum of force and firepower that we can bring to bear on the sector in question. What we are seeing on the Chinko side is a huge build-up of infra on their side in their rear camps. A steady buildup of infra to support arty., AVs,what looks like tunnels for mobile tactical missile launchers,etc. in no way it looks like they're returning to peacetime ]ositions,rather that they're consolidating their " squat" and going in for the long haul.Plus we all know what happened in '62.The "withdrawal" then supported by the Chinko leadership, was masterful deception, followed up by an invasion with overwhelming numbers. Our "quantum of force", must be sufficient to destroy key Chinko positions that will determine the outcome of the battle.

Our jingo channels must stop declaring victory as some are,even quoting Chinko official statements that appear to echo our PM's position on the issue.If so,it is a definite "red flag" that must be taken as a ruse to deceive us yet again.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 08 Jul 2020 02:20

Vivasvat wrote:What if their intent is to try to make India spend more on defence while the economy is dipping because of the essence of WuXi (Covid) and keep Indian forces deployed on a high state of alert permanently? They might have been advised by the tactically brilliant but strategically flawed naPaki forces' advisor that India can be bankrupted the same way naPak went bust.


This is plausible. But the Chinese themselves have taken a hit from KungFlu. The only thing we know for sure is that their numbers for everything from cases, deaths, spread, economic recovery are all fake. I posted on another thread that the size of their economy in 2016 was overstated by 25% and their debt to GDP ratio was 2.5, instead of 2, as claimed. If that pattern has continued, their economy is possibly around 12 trillion, instead of 15 trillion. One might think, yes but still makes it around 4 times the size of India. But the thing is, that's a lot of missing trillions. The USSR was financially rosy, until they found out it wasn't. Some of the inflated growth figures are simply habitual lying but some of it is because of the provincial governments lying to the central government.

So they might be planning to make 16 aircraft carriers while having the money for 6. That's a sure shot way to financial ruin. If you think, back in the day USSR was not just a military but also an economic superpower and Afghanistan was, well Afghanistan. And yet that was the beginning of financial bankruptcy for the Russians, who in all probability weren't even themselves aware of how broke they were due to the opacity of their system. And then of course in China there's the straight up fraud like loans given out with fake gold as collateral. And that's just one case we know of which is equivalent to 4% of their entire foreign reserves. How much more of such fraud is there in their system?

China currently shows plenty of signs of imperial overstretch. The OBOR was a great trick but there was still some expectation of getting repaid. That isn't happening. Gwadar, fantastic move, except there's no cargo moving through there. The world economy is declining and that'll hit China hard. Screwing Pakistan with the CPEC by charging them twice the actual price was a great idea but right now it looks like TSP won't even be able to pay back the costs of the iron brother. You can't squeeze blood out of a stone.

If anything China might go bankrupt first. Even before Pakistan.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 08 Jul 2020 02:31

chetak wrote:food supplies can always be airdropped or helo lifted and in this case, there will be practically little or no loss because it will not be lost in crevasses or drift to the Indian side

fuel may have to be resupplied periodically by road and they will already have ammo to brace for the initial contact.


Supply 3.5 div worth of troops by air?

Possible but will have to be last resort.

I am not sure people understand here what is involved in sustaining even a brigade worth of troops over winter.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 08 Jul 2020 02:41

suryag wrote:RaviB sir, your post reflects my thoughts too. Am still not able to see what they achieved ? Did they do this just to gauge our response ? or was it to tire us out through repeated mobilizations ? Was it just that their plans went awry ? or was it a pre-emptive move to thwart any impending attempt from our side to get GB back(may be they got intel suggesting this was impending) but none of the above add up.


I had earlier posted a tentative timeline of their entire mobilisation and I think the original planning might have started in 2018 and the plan was set into motion at the latest by October 2019. The first logistics, feint exercises etc. began around then. I do not believe this had anything to do with GB. Even if there would be such an Indian plan, they wouldn't bother to help out the Pakistanis. They are deeper than the Himalayas in the public but many senior Chinese privately refer to it as "minibus". The only utility of Pakistan for China as a counter to India. There's no friendship involved.

Imagine if you see a big elephant kicking the street dog you occasionally give stale rotis to, would you go and fight the elephant? Not worth the risk. China has never come to the aid of Pakistan regardless of how deep the Himalayas are or how high honey is.

Testing our response is possible, doing a real life simulation for the PLA is another. But this entire mobilization isn't easy for them either, so if the intention is to tire India out, isn't it too much effort?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 08 Jul 2020 02:44

Sachin, Maybe you should educate us? People don't understand logistics
In old days needed 500 tons of supplies by road to sustain a division on the march.

Thread on Logistics:

viewtopic.php?p=2446035#p2446035



Guys today was a day of victory that the Galwan Heroes got us.
And without even being happy for a minute, like Jambavan types in Ramayana, you are predicting doom and gllom.
Relax. We have the whole year to while and predict doom and gloom.

Brahma Chellaney types are dime a dozen.
His upset for he thought India will be new American Gungadin egged on by him.
Are Cassandra morons go listen to Jaishankar in March 2019 at the Raisiana Hill dialogs.
Petraeus was ginging ultimatum that India must choe.
And SJ said "India has chosen. Its to be on India's side"

RaviB, The few kilometers they would have gained are not strategic or tactical.
They are political to energize the beaten Congress pidis.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby vijayk » 08 Jul 2020 03:19

ramana wrote:Sachin, Maybe you should educate us? People don't understand logistics
In old days needed 500 tons of supplies by road to sustain a division on the march.

Thread on Logistics:

viewtopic.php?p=2446035#p2446035



Guys today was a day of victory that the Galwan Heroes got us.
And without even being happy for a minute, like Jambavan types in Ramayana, you are predicting doom and gllom.
Relax. We have the whole year to while and predict doom and gloom.

Brahma Chellaney types are dime a dozen.
His upset for he thought India will be new American Gungadin egged on by him.
Are Cassandra morons go listen to Jaishankar in March 2019 at the Raisiana Hill dialogs.
Petraeus was ginging ultimatum that India must choe.
And SJ said "India has chosen. Its to be on India's side"

RaviB, The few kilometers they would have gained are not strategic or tactical.
They are political to energize the beaten Congress pidis.


Thanks for knocking it into me.

I think I was too swayed by Chinese treachery and our ability to get surprised every time


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