India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

The Military Issues & History Forum is a venue to discuss issues relating to the military aspects of the Indian Armed Forces, whether the past, present or future. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21054
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Philip » 13 Jul 2020 10:39

Mahesh,don't shoot the messenger,counter the message.Personal like or dislikes result in subjective judgement.

Hindu frontpage today.
Months of planning went into XI's Himalayan gambit launched at Ladakh and at several places along the Indo- Sino LAC.
Under the guise of training exercises ,the Chinks masked their operations with large numbers of troops trained far away from the border who moved in ostensibly for the trg. exercises.
The careful advance planning was evident as at all flashpoints,the Chinks operations took place almost simultaneously,at least within a few hours of each other. This revealed that this was a well-planned campaign against India that had months of advance preparations to catch us unguarded,which they did.

According to the report quoting unnamed sr
defence / security sources,the GOI is worried that this is the typical Chink dodge of " many steps forward and only a few back" and that we have not seen the end of the story with more nasty events to come.This is exactly what SSM has said and what many of us on BRF have been saying and predicting for the future.

The clear undisputed fact is that our entire China policy over the last few years has gone up in smoke. Apart from a reset with China,the MEA needs a huge cleanup.Another report in the media says that we are swiftly changing our HC in Dacca because he has allegedly earned thf displeasure of the Hasina govt.,our closest ally in hhf neighbourhood,who is v.heavily being wooed by China with goodies for a foothold in Chittagong! India willthus be rncircled at sea by Chink bases in B'desh ,Burma,Sri Lanka,the Maldives- if they get their way,Djibouti, Pakistan and now Iran too.

We are now also openly seeing the emerging contours of the Sino- Pak JV masterplan to defeat India in a future war.
Thanks to the asinine Yanquis and their unilateral sanctions against Iran despite Iran signing on the western N-accord.In addition intense pressure on friendly nations like India to boycott Iran on oil supplies,etc.,almost capsising our joint Chahbahar port project, China has gleefully stepped in.A massive $ 500 B deal for oil supplies,military training,weapons to obviously follow,has outflanked the cretins in Wasington. Iran now has two powerful backers,Russia and China at a time when it is RETREATING from the region! India should've never sscrificed its Iranian interests to any diktat from Washington. China sitting pretty in Geadar at the mouth of the Gulf has now cemented an alliance with Iran and will in the future station a huge number of troops in Gwadar to look after its interests,plus make use of whatever Iranian fzcilities become part of the deal.There is f..k all that the US can do to stop the Iran- China deal.It couldn't even stop NATO ally Turkey from buying Ru S- 400 SAM systems!

A Q must be asked by the GOI of the day to the MEA how it has "lost" almost every regional neighbour of ours to the Chinese,unable to prevent them from planning to or establishing military facilities on their soil,erstwhile friends of India for whom India has done a lot forthese nations especially in times of crisis/ natural disasters. Is it because we began to sacrifice our own legitimate interests to those of Uncle Sam,meekly toeing his line,as they might've been in conflict with his?We are still at loggerheads with the US over issues like visas,etc. despite thf fnormous support we've given it.

PS: China's "string of pearls" are solid bases. Djibouti,Gwadar/Kiwani,etc. are going to be major military outposts for China ,where they will have leased sovereignty over the bases just as the US has in some ME countries,where they havf created their own little Yanqui outposts, not just " pit stops" as ours are.We do not have a single squatting right base agreement even with close all Vietnam because of our MEA's erstwhile top policy priority, " don't annoy China".

kirpalbasra
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 31
Joined: 23 Jun 2020 23:49

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kirpalbasra » 13 Jul 2020 13:28

Philip wrote:Mahesh,don't shoot the messenger,counter the message.Personal like or dislikes result in subjective judgement.

Hindu frontpage today.
Months of planning went into XI's Himalayan gambit launched at Ladakh and at several places along the Indo- Sino LAC.
Under the guise of training exercises ,the Chinks masked their operations with large numbers of troops trained far away from the border who moved in ostensibly for the trg. exercises.
The careful advance planning was evident as at all flashpoints,the Chinks operations took place almost simultaneously,at least within a few hours of each other. This revealed that this was a well-planned campaign against India that had months of advance preparations to catch us unguarded,which they did.
rity, " don't annoy China".


To make matters worse if Trump does not get in November you will have unfriendly USA who will play the Kashmir and human rights card to the full,

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 13 Jul 2020 14:22

Philip wrote:<snip>

A Q must be asked by the GOI of the day to the MEA how it has "lost" almost every regional neighbour of ours to the Chinese,unable to prevent them from planning to or establishing military facilities on their soil,erstwhile friends of India for whom India has done a lot forthese nations especially in times of crisis/ natural disasters. Is it because we began to sacrifice our own legitimate interests to those of Uncle Sam,meekly toeing his line,as they might've been in conflict with his?We are still at loggerheads with the US over issues like visas,etc. despite thf fnormous support we've given it.

PS: China's "string of pearls" are solid bases. Djibouti,Gwadar/Kiwani,etc. are going to be major military outposts for China ,where they will have leased sovereignty over the bases just as the US has in some ME countries,where they havf created their own little Yanqui outposts, not just " pit stops" as ours are.We do not have a single squatting right base agreement even with close all Vietnam because of our MEA's erstwhile top policy priority, " don't annoy China".
Wrong on many counts ...

1. Our MEA don't drive policy! It is the PM's of the past and the present PMO that is to be blamed for our lack of correct policy. I had written before and will say it again. Modi thought he could charm Xi/China to create a win-win for both! The stumble, if any, should be laid at the PMO.

2. BUT before that, as I have written before on this very thread, not more than a week or so back, in reply to another of your rants, India is loosing to China because of the gap in the economic muscle that China is able to deploy was compared to India!

China has deployed its economic power / trade surplus to its geo-strategic advantage, the effects of which are not just visible in our neighborhood but across the world. It is able to buy its way to economic and political power around the globe. Does one need proof of that? This subject can be more "objectively" rather than emotionally understood if we look at an area that is NOT our neighborhood. Take the case of Africa. Has India been beaten by China is Africa? YES. Has ONLY India been beaten in Africa? NO ... A whole host of countries and regions including America, EU, Russia, India, etc has lost relative to China in Africa.

Lets take the case of a country closer to your heart than America ... Russia! Has China intruded into Central Asia, the traditional backyard of Russia at its cost? YES ... So is Russia and its MEA equivalent as useless as India and MEA? The answer to that question should tell you much about India/China games in out neighborhood.

How can we do correct analysis and figure out the correct antidote without identifying the root of the problem? The greatest PMO/MEA would not be able to counter China's economic muscle coupled with local greedy and compromised politicians around the world including our neighborhood.

3. Again, ranting about MEA and US is NOOOOT going to solve our problems. It is wrong/illogical to attribute our internal weakness re:economy to the US. To your way of writing, it seems, all of our problems will vanish the day we pick an unnecessary fight with the US just to show our independence!

With China leaning Russia or at best neutral Russia, China would love for India to get into a fight with US and ease it path to IOR dominance! BUT is that in our interests? This is a wrong as some saying/writing on the internet I saw the other day that the US has dispatched the 2 US carrier task force to the Champa sea to help India. Kya logic hai!

This is getting repetitive.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 13 Jul 2020 14:45

Deans wrote:With these agreements, we have virtually got ourselves a `string of pearls' for free.
The flaw in China's own strong of pearls strategy, is that is dependent on coercing host countries into giving up land, because they can't pay up loans issued on unviable terms. There is a big risk that a change in strongman/dictator/general in the host country will put their whole BRI investment at risk. When they do operate a base, there is a risk of putting vessels thousands of miles of home without any support. They have done this because small groups of soldiers intruding across the LAC have intimidated us. If we change our mindset, we should view the strong of pearls bases as being under a serious and permanent threat from IN/IAF or an amphibious landing.

On the other hand, China will have to devote considerable resources to guard against the possibility that we MIGHT use any of the bases we have agreements for. A single P-8i aircraft in Seyshelles or Deigo Garcia, or an indication that we can refuel a sub there, will lead to re-routing for a thousand Chinese ships passing through the area, allocation of surface ships for convoy escort etc. We, in contrast, have a negligible number of merchant ships to worry about.
Agree

1. A change in guard, like happened in Maldives, can upend the whole BRI/base project unless China is willing to back its play with "substantial" force and forcefully invade and occupy a foreign land. This is easier said than done.

2. String of pearls also represents a string of targets nearer our shore, created on borrowed parcel of land, without having a friendly hinterland to fall back upon, not easily re-supplied, easily covered by our Army/Airforce/Navy.

3. The only exception to the above pt.2 is the base at Gwadar. As I had written before, Gwadar is likely to the be fulcrum around which the Chinese IOR project is going to build and sustained. It has a "friendlier" hinterland and host in the form of PA, who would go to any extent to put India down. It also provides a convenient direct re-supply land/air route direct from China.

It too can be taken care by simultaneously targeting Gwadar base as well as the land/air re-supply route via GB. A ruckus with China in the IOR, primarily driven from Gwadar, would be an appropriate time to make a bid for the whole of GB and cut that route permanently.

4. Once the Chinese re-supply route via Malacca strait and Gwadar is cut, it would strand the Chinese "string of pearls" and PLAN vessels deployed thousands miles away from home base. Gwadar is an insurance for Malacca. IF we are able to seal both, we should be able to deal with PLAN in the IOR no matter how many other pearls are there on the IOR string.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4891
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chola » 13 Jul 2020 15:02

KLNMurthy wrote:
Now this part I am really confused by. The OP only gave his insights into the Chinese mentality. Where do you get that he was recommending that we accept China as the all-powerful Middle Kingdom which should not get a pushback?

Of course India as well as China are going to depart from their ideal vision, we live in the real world after all. But that doesn't mean it isn't valuable to think about what those ideal visions might be.

Don't really understand your ire and abuse here.


My point, not ire, is we go into the same analysis each and every time and we end up in the same place.

The OP stated that we expect equality and they expect subservience. I find that to be the same lazy and stereotypical answer that we ALWAYS had.

Again, the fact is we don't treat them the same way we treat others. For example, the US has a far larger presence in the IOR but we don't complain. With Cheen we do. So that should be taken into consideration in any analysis or gaming. They are hostile to us because we are hostile to them.

Secondly, there isn't a nation on earth that is subservient to Cheen. Not even Taiwan or Hong Kong. So why do we expect Cheen to follow a strategy that never works? Cheen cannot get to where it is today by making making nations "subservient" to it. The countries that created modern Cheen are all nations that are far more advance than Cheen -- Japan, Korea, Taiwan and the US and the West themselves. You think Cheen could have gone anywhere by making them "subservient"?

My biggest issue with the stereotypical analysis is we never go into realistic gaming of cause, effect and response. Nothing more, nothing less.

Adrija
BRFite
Posts: 317
Joined: 13 Mar 2007 19:42

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Adrija » 13 Jul 2020 15:10

Not sure if I am getting this completely wrong, but I find this whole "China as super smart able to hoodwink the world" a bit exaggerated:
1. Africa: yes of course China has outbought and out-purchased everyone else......... guess what it reminds me of- Japan buying (and then massively having to write off) huge tracts of land in CA in the 1980s; and destroying capital to the extent that they are still not able to recover from it. What we have seen is capital destruction by China on a scale unknown to any economy so far.... they can very well suspend the laws of economics but can't avoid it... someday the chickens will come home to roost. And mind you, the denouement will be on a scale much deeper and scarier than JP
2. String of Pearls: Yes of course, it is a major issue. Had we not intervened in Sri Lanka, and either of (then) US or UK had (China at that time was relatively smaller) we would have opened up a new front in peninsular India which would have resulted in a peacetime location becoming a full fledged front, so intervention IMVVHO was an imperative. And now the same risk is there with China buying the port at Humbontota. So now the chances of us having to manage on these fronts is something we need to manage. But, again IMVVHO, China is far far far from being a US in the seas....... a country which cannot even mount an invasion of Taiwan and is effectively locked in by hostile (or perceived hostile) powers within the first and second island chains, and then having to maneouvre through the choke points held by (again, perceived) hostile powers like India (Andamans), Australia (Sunda), and of course US (Gulf) is far from being an offensive power which India needs to dhoti-shibir about today.......... I would rather submit that the boot is actually on the other foot

And not to forget that China is really really vulnerable both short term and long term - they have in their tactical brilliance sabotaged their relationship with their prime markets (US, EU) and face a demographic implosion much much before they cross the hump on graduating to developed status..

Of course, none of this underplays the current situation of managing and strengthening our position on the border so that we can hold, and then at some indeterminate time in future, and Ishwar willing, take back our lands as is demanded by dharma

Just my 2 paise and IMVVHO of course

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4050
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 13 Jul 2020 15:21

One aspect we need to remember is that we are not really dealing with China as a country. We are dealing with an entity called CCP. So it is not a case of what China expects of the world.

It is what CCP expects. CCP expectation is based on their experience with their people. They seem to have understood that if you pay people enough money, they will handover their rights. This allows for long terms rule of CCP. Hitler used war, CCP uses money. Their responses are exactly like how they would respond to their own people. "Shut up and do exactly I say, because I am allowing you to make money".

It is a simple logic. It is all about making money. Rights are secondary. It is capitalism in CCP form!

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 13 Jul 2020 15:35

pankajs wrote:3. Again, ranting about MEA and US is NOOOOT going to solve our problems. It is wrong/illogical to attribute our internal weakness re:economy to the US. To your way of writing, it seems, all of our problems will vanish the day we pick an unnecessary fight with the US just to show our independence!
Just saw this tweet ...
https://twitter.com/chitraSD/status/1282379786606784525
Chitra Subramaniam @chitraSD

The logic behind disengagement with China on crucial supply chains is obvious. India’s response should be political muscularity along its borders and obsessive nurturing and growth of the economy write @samirsaran & @akhildeo94

. #mustread #trade #marketaccess
Chitra is quoting the crux of Samir Saran's writeup ... it is THE economy.

Again, for the nth time, unless India or Russia can economically challenge China, China will continue pushing the boundary in their respective backyards. Every other kind of influence flows from the economic clout. It is as simple as that!

RaviB
BRFite
Posts: 210
Joined: 09 Jun 2020 14:32

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 13 Jul 2020 16:11

chola wrote:
The OP stated that we expect equality and they expect subservience. I find that to be the same lazy and stereotypical answer that we ALWAYS had.

Again, the fact is we don't treat them the same way we treat others. For example, the US has a far larger presence in the IOR but we don't complain. With Cheen we do. So that should be taken into consideration in any analysis or gaming. They are hostile to us because we are hostile to them.


I agree to this. The Chinese perspective of India is as a (wannabe) regional hegemon. In fact this is the lesson they took away from Doklam. Chinese foreign policy in theory has the principle of equality, meaning they deal with all countries on an equal footing. The reality is of course that they are overwhelmingly large and inequality is built into their relationships with for instance, African countries. They use other tools like subversion of political structures of target countries, lobbying in Western countries, bribing in other countries. Their relations with their neighbours relies on inequality of course, they want pacified neighbours. Subservience is one aspect of it. But we don't deal with Nepal or Bhutan or Bangladesh as equals either. On this very forum I have heard absurd suggestions like "let's just annex Nepal".

Our interests impose a competition with China and there is mutual suspicion which also leads to hostility. I think our strategy should emerge from our vision for a future India. We tend to get sidetracked into a gun measuring contest. A competition about whose gun is bigger and proving to China that ours is bigger. I think the entire bilateral trade idea with China was a good thing, until India lost control. War costs lives and there is a massive opportunity cost. The money we spend fighting a real war now is money we can use to grow instead.

IMO we have so many competing interests that war is inevitable but it is in our interest to delay it for as long as possible.

Secondly, there isn't a nation on earth that is subservient to Cheen. Not even Taiwan or Hong Kong. So why do we expect Cheen to follow a strategy that never works? Cheen cannot get to where it is today by making making nations "subservient" to it. The countries that created modern Cheen are all nations that are far more advance than Cheen -- Japan, Korea, Taiwan and the US and the West themselves. You think Cheen could have gone anywhere by making them "subservient"?

My biggest issue with the stereotypical analysis is we never go into realistic gaming of cause, effect and response. Nothing more, nothing less.


China has subverted enough countries to make them beholden, many small African countries for instance. Of course, domestic politics can change and China's favorite dictator might be replaced by someone who comes to power on an anti-China platform.

Adrija wrote:Not sure if I am getting this completely wrong, but I find this whole "China as super smart able to hoodwink the world" a bit exaggerated:
1. Africa: What we have seen is capital destruction by China on a scale unknown to any economy so far.... they can very well suspend the laws of economics but can't avoid it... someday the chickens will come home to roost. And mind you, the denouement will be on a scale much deeper and scarier than JP

The entire orientalist trope of the inscrutable wily Han reading Sun Zi, playing Weiqi and planning for the next 100 years is best left in the rubbish bin. The reason they got rich was partly because of being in the right place at the right time but also due to the greed of western corporations and superfluous capital in Japan. Then there is the gold rush effect where because some corporations were moving to China, all of a sudden everyone had to move to China. There was IP theft, bribes to be paid but no environmental or labour regulations, what the Chinese call win-win. This was not some far reaching strategy but simply two parties trying to get rich by cutting corners.

2. String of Pearls: Yes of course, it is a major issue. Had we not intervened in Sri Lanka, and either of (then) US or UK had (China at that time was relatively smaller) we would have opened up a new front in peninsular India which would have resulted in a peacetime location becoming a full fledged front, so intervention IMVVHO was an imperative. And now the same risk is there with China buying the port at Humbontota. So now the chances of us having to manage on these fronts is something we need to manage. But, again IMVVHO, China is far far far from being a US in the seas....... a country which cannot even mount an invasion of Taiwan and is effectively locked in by hostile (or perceived hostile) powers within the first and second island chains, and then having to maneouvre through the choke points held by (again, perceived) hostile powers like India (Andamans), Australia (Sunda), and of course US (Gulf) is far from being an offensive power which India needs to dhoti-shibir about today.......... I would rather submit that the boot is actually on the other foot

This sums it up perfectly. The string of pearls is not a noose of pearls, and at the same time in case of conflict, it is also a plate of Gulabjamuns

And not to forget that China is really really vulnerable both short term and long term - they have in their tactical brilliance sabotaged their relationship with their prime markets (US, EU) and face a demographic implosion much much before they cross the hump on graduating to developed status..

Of course, none of this underplays the current situation of managing and strengthening our position on the border so that we can hold, and then at some indeterminate time in future, and Ishwar willing, take back our lands as is demanded by dharma

A lot of Chinese foreign policy is driven by domestic politics. Several policies like the OBOR are more a result of grandiosity rather than being too well thought by practicing on a Go board. Like all countries sometimes China gets things right, sometimes it gets them wrong and in recent times it often got lucky.

The biggest threat to China really is not democracy but Elite Competition. The common narrative is that due to an implicit social contract CCP guarantees economic growth and people accept its legitimacy. The reality is that PRC's internal security is better funded than its external defense, so the CCP has nothing to fear from the people. But as the economic pie shrinks, the opportunities for money-making shrink, which leads to unhappy people within the CCP. Also Eleven has set up a pressure cooker, there are plenty of competitors for the top but very little room. Normally opportunities for top positions became free every five years and everyone got to rise to the level of their political competence, ability to pick the right faction and so on. Now those opportunities are gone and when the avenues for corruption shrink due to absence of growth there will be greater infighting.

A lot of international projects are simply about finding avenues for corruption abroad as those in China shrink. Geisha Xi got rid of 2.3 million people from the golden tap and brought in his own to guarantee loyalty. If the tap runs dry, lots of people are going to be unhappy and Eleven is going to be dead.

Even the current conflict might be more about buying PLA loyalty and giving them more money to fight since territorially there is very little chance of any long lasting change, everyone will have to go home in winter. https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/tensi ... se-border/

I highly recommend reading this article to get an understanding of capital, economic growth and Chinese domestic politics https://zeihan.com/a-failure-of-leaders ... -of-china/

James
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 93
Joined: 13 Sep 2009 16:48

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby James » 13 Jul 2020 16:34

pankajs wrote:4. Once the Chinese re-supply route via Malacca strait and Gwadar is cut,


Nothing to do with with military supplies, but at least as far as crude oil imports by China are concerned, 50% of the oil imported by China in 2019 already did NOT / need NOT have passed thru Malacca straits. To that extent, (i) it will not be impacted; (ii) represents alternative routes which are more stable and from where supply can be increased even if Malacca AND Gwadar are blocked off.

These 15 countries account for 90% of China's crude oil imports. The ones in bold represent alternative routes either overland or thru the Pacific or potentially south of Indonesia.

1. Saudi Arabia: US$40.1 billion (16.8% of China’s total imported crude oil)
2. Russia: $36.5 billion (15.3%)
3. Iraq: $23.7 billion (9.9%)
4. Angola: $22.7 billion (9.5%)
5. Brazil: $18.5 billion (7.8%)
6. Oman: $16.4 billion (6.9%)
7. Kuwait: $10.8 billion (4.5%)
8. United Arab Emirates: $7.3 billion (3.1%)
9. Iran: $7.1 billion (3%)
10.United Kingdom: $6.3 (2.7%)
11.Congo: $5.54 billion (2.3%)
12. Malaysia: $5.5 billion (2.3%)
13. Colombia: $5.4 billion (2.3%)
14. Libya: $4.8 billion (2%)
15. Venezuela: $4.4 billion (1.9%)

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 13 Jul 2020 16:52

James wrote:
pankajs wrote:4. Once the Chinese re-supply route via Malacca strait and Gwadar is cut,


Nothing to do with with military supplies, but at least as far as crude oil imports by China are concerned, 50% of the oil imported by China in 2019 already did NOT / need NOT have passed thru Malacca straits. To that extent, (i) it will not be impacted; (ii) represents alternative routes which are more stable and from where supply can be increased even if Malacca AND Gwadar are blocked off.

These 15 countries account for 90% of China's crude oil imports. The ones in bold represent alternative routes either overland or thru the Pacific or potentially south of Indonesia.

1. Saudi Arabia: US$40.1 billion (16.8% of China’s total imported crude oil)
2. Russia: $36.5 billion (15.3%)
3. Iraq: $23.7 billion (9.9%)
4. Angola: $22.7 billion (9.5%)
5. Brazil: $18.5 billion (7.8%)
6. Oman: $16.4 billion (6.9%)
7. Kuwait: $10.8 billion (4.5%)
8. United Arab Emirates: $7.3 billion (3.1%)
9. Iran: $7.1 billion (3%)
10.United Kingdom: $6.3 (2.7%)
11.Congo: $5.54 billion (2.3%)
12. Malaysia: $5.5 billion (2.3%)
13. Colombia: $5.4 billion (2.3%)
14. Libya: $4.8 billion (2%)
15. Venezuela: $4.4 billion (1.9%)

While I wasn't aware of the extent of the Chinese oil supplies that do not transit IOR, I was aware that Russia and the Central Asian republic had emerged as major suppliers and IOR blockage would NOT completely cut off the oil supplies to China. I did want to make that point to someone who wanted India to proactively take the fight to China in the IOR and cripple them but forgot. In anycase good to have that data in the forum so that people can take that into account when suggesting strategy.

Anyway, another factor to consider in light of the latest Iran/China oil deal is that Iran oil "could" be pushed to China via its oil pipeline network in Central Asia! While I haven't researched it yet, and it depends on multiple variables, it is "looks" a much more viable strategy for China to bypass its Malacca dilemma than a pipeline passing through Gwadar/GB/Bakistan.

Finally, my comment was about "re-supply" of men, material and basics for PLAN deployment in IOR, its string of pearls and not the Chinese oil trade or even its normal commercial trade.

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 19840
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Karan M » 13 Jul 2020 17:25

ks_sachin wrote:
Karan M wrote:
Great find. The Tejas combat radius is ~ 700-800km assuming 20-30% for emergency fuel, loiter etc. And the oft quoted 500km combat radius then includes a fair amount of loiter, combat at range, and then return.

What the heck is wrong with the IAF that they aren't ordering more of this aircraft - it's fairly substantial against the PAF and will free up substantial number of Flankers and Rafales vs the PLAAF.

Karan that range figure is not disputed and well known. IR has also alluded to it. I was just wanting to see if our worthy poster knew what he was talking about.
With a combat radius of say 700km I would not be launching them from ND to interdict G219. We have better platforms for that role no?
Also Manpads...the Chinese know the valleys as well as us. Usinga Jag or Hawk to fly low exposes them to VSHORADs or Manpads yes more than a higher flying SU or Rafael?


That range figure is not well known. Its the first time I am seeing an IAF board with the range and the weapons profile for the same, otherwise all we had was journo speculation (and often a deliberate intent to run the platform down) or the numbers quoted w/o context, as against our informed estimates.

I am glad to see the numbers because they are slap bang Gripen C/D - something I, Kartik, Indranil and several other posters had always pointed to. After all, the LCA has similar fuel, weights and the engine. How was it being attacked as being inferior in the light fighter category.

Coming to tactical usage, if we can use MiG-21s vs the same class of targets, the LCA would do far better - why fly it down the valley? You'd use Litening and LGB from far away. But the range-payload needs to match up from which bases it launches from.

But that was not my overall point either. My point was buy more of these to base them off near the Pak oriented AFB to free up Flankers and Rafales against the PRC, save money for upgrades too.

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4322
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KLNMurthy » 13 Jul 2020 18:24

chola wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:
Now this part I am really confused by. The OP only gave his insights into the Chinese mentality. Where do you get that he was recommending that we accept China as the all-powerful Middle Kingdom which should not get a pushback?

Of course India as well as China are going to depart from their ideal vision, we live in the real world after all. But that doesn't mean it isn't valuable to think about what those ideal visions might be.

Don't really understand your ire and abuse here.


My point, not ire, is we go into the same analysis each and every time and we end up in the same place.

The OP stated that we expect equality and they expect subservience. I find that to be the same lazy and stereotypical answer that we ALWAYS had.

Again, the fact is we don't treat them the same way we treat others. For example, the US has a far larger presence in the IOR but we don't complain. With Cheen we do. So that should be taken into consideration in any analysis or gaming. They are hostile to us because we are hostile to them.


What you are terming India’s hostility towards Chilna is actually India’s expectation that, within its own periphery, it is the successor state to erstwhile British India. China’s logic is that, since the British left, we should start our relationship with a blank slate. It implies (in China’s view) that, India should bow to Chinese hegemony on land and IOR just as it is now bowing to US hegemony in IOR. Because equality, you see.

But this is nonsense. India didn’t spring forth brand new in 1947. It has a history. It has a size and heft. It has power. It has capabilities. It has a national trajectory. (All of which China also has, more in next para) And borders and periphery to stabilize and maintain.

The nonsense becomes even more blindingly obvious when we consider that China routinely bases its claims on its own history, size, and capabilities. China resolutely and firmly rejects equality for itself, in favor of dominance.

The situation is somewhat parallel to India’s internal secular politics : what’s mine is mine and what’s yours, we share, till I can be in a position to make it mine.

Historical record shows that India strenuously pursued equality with the US in the IOR, witness the fuss it made over US setting up the Diego Garcia base. It just didn’t have the power to get its way. India’s self-perception remains: Inshaallah some day we will be powerful enough to treat the US the same as Mauritius or Seychelles, maybe even somewhat lower because they are local and US is not.

The equality is a matter of self-perception. We can be everyone’s slave and that is also equality, and that is China’s logic: you were and are the white man’s slave, we are overtaking the white man, so might as well be China’s slave now, because that’s who you are. India would rather be its own master, with no desire to be anyone else’s master, and consolidate its periphery enough to make that status realistic and stable.

Secondly, there isn't a nation on earth that is subservient to Cheen. Not even Taiwan or Hong Kong. So why do we expect Cheen to follow a strategy that never works? Cheen cannot get to where it is today by making making nations "subservient" to it. The countries that created modern Cheen are all nations that are far more advance than Cheen -- Japan, Korea, Taiwan and the US and the West themselves. You think Cheen could have gone anywhere by making them "subservient"?


All this is completely irrelevant when it comes to China’s self-perception that others ought to be subservient to it. It may not be able to bring about that happy state today, and maybe even faced humiliation yesterday when it tried. But that experience only makes it more determined to work for a future state in which it can achieve that dominance.
My biggest issue with the stereotypical analysis is we never go into realistic gaming of cause, effect and response. Nothing more, nothing less.

You denied any ire, but you were pretty harsh in your language when dismissing the equality-subservience model.
So I hope you will take it in good spirit when I say the following:

The equality-subservience dichotomy is the crux of the conflict between India and China. I would have thought it would be obvious to Indians of all people. We should know India and its self-perception first-hand. We shouldn’t be reduced to reciting Chinese vision of India. (Actually it is Chinese-distorted formulation, for Indian ears, of India’s self-vision for itself, nothing great, just garden-variety bully’s tactics for manipulating the sucker. But apparently, it works well, even in BRF.)

Also, I fancy that I can now understand better the dysfunctionality of south block mandarins (what a word to describe India’s China desk!) who get too impressed by their own haute cleverness and objectivity compared to the lowly lazy-thinking peasants, and promptly talk themselves into a policy of “but we mustn’t ever-ever provoke China, no matter what, because of China’s sensibilities onlee”. Which of course doesn’t work at all (vide giving them the UNSC seat) because it is ultimately inimical to our deep-seated national drive for self-ownership *and* because China will settle for nothing short of dominance, fairness and equality be damned. Once we realize that, we panic and start doing Forward Policy and start shouting “throw the buggers out!” (But the realization is only superficial, lacking in clarity and self-awareness, therefore it’s temporary. So we doom ourselves to going through the same appease-overreact cycle again and again. Thank God for Modi, BTW.)

Our troubles, it seems, are organic-pisko in nature, not that much to do with individuals like Nehru or Krishna Menon.
Last edited by KLNMurthy on 13 Jul 2020 19:03, edited 3 times in total.

ks_sachin
BRFite
Posts: 1543
Joined: 24 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: Sydney

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 13 Jul 2020 18:37

Karan M wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:Karan that range figure is not disputed and well known. IR has also alluded to it. I was just wanting to see if our worthy poster knew what he was talking about.
With a combat radius of say 700km I would not be launching them from ND to interdict G219. We have better platforms for that role no?
Also Manpads...the Chinese know the valleys as well as us. Usinga Jag or Hawk to fly low exposes them to VSHORADs or Manpads yes more than a higher flying SU or Rafael?


That range figure is not well known. Its the first time I am seeing an IAF board with the range and the weapons profile for the same, otherwise all we had was journo speculation (and often a deliberate intent to run the platform down) or the numbers quoted w/o context, as against our informed estimates.

I am glad to see the numbers because they are slap bang Gripen C/D - something I, Kartik, Indranil and several other posters had always pointed to. After all, the LCA has similar fuel, weights and the engine. How was it being attacked as being inferior in the light fighter category.

Coming to tactical usage, if we can use MiG-21s vs the same class of targets, the LCA would do far better - why fly it down the valley? You'd use Litening and LGB from far away. But the range-payload needs to match up from which bases it launches from.

But that was not my overall point either. My point was buy more of these to base them off near the Pak oriented AFB to free up Flankers and Rafales against the PRC, save money for upgrades too.


I don’t disagree with what you have stated. I just posed some questions to the esteemed poster to which he took offence.

Valleys was not my contention as the poster wanted to fly jags and hawks for attacking the G219 - fly through the valleys in the area of operations.

RaviB
BRFite
Posts: 210
Joined: 09 Jun 2020 14:32

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 13 Jul 2020 18:50

KLNMurthy wrote:
...

Also, I fancy that I can now understand better the dysfunctionality of south block mandarins (what a word to describe India’s China desk!) who get too impressed by their own haute cleverness and objectivity compared to the lowly lazy-thinking peasants, and promptly talk themselves into a policy of “but we mustn’t ever-ever provoke China, no matter what, because of China’s sensibilities onlee”.


Actually, it's the Chinese who should be ashamed. Mandarin is derived from Sanskrit Mantrin

mandarin (n.)

1580s, "Chinese official," via Portuguese mandarim or older Dutch mandorijn from Malay (Austronesian) mantri, from Hindi mantri "councilor, minister of state," from Sanskrit mantri, nominative of mantrin- "adviser," from mantra "counsel," from PIE root *men- (1) "to think." Form influenced in Portuguese by mandar "to command, order."


KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4322
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KLNMurthy » 13 Jul 2020 18:58

RaviB wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:
...

Also, I fancy that I can now understand better the dysfunctionality of south block mandarins (what a word to describe India’s China desk!) who get too impressed by their own haute cleverness and objectivity compared to the lowly lazy-thinking peasants, and promptly talk themselves into a policy of “but we mustn’t ever-ever provoke China, no matter what, because of China’s sensibilities onlee”.


Actually, it's the Chinese who should be ashamed. Mandarin is derived from Sanskrit Mantrin


I’m well aware. No question of shame. It is just a word with fascinating many-layered connotations of a rather OT flavor when applied to India’s China desk.

LakshmanPST
BRFite
Posts: 283
Joined: 05 Apr 2019 18:23

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby LakshmanPST » 13 Jul 2020 19:22

IMO, Chinese way of doing things is very simple---> "You have power, you can do whatever you want..."
This simple logic was the basis of colonialism in the past...

The problem is, while the world largely moved away from this overt colonial mindset, it is still present in a covert way...

Just to give an example, we complain about China not following international law in South China sea by creating artificial islands and claiming the waters around them...
But down in the Indian Ocean, Britain continues to occupy Diego Garcia and US operates a base there...

The big powers often intervene in smaller countries in the name of restoring democracy or people's rights (basically all they want is a favorable Govt. in the target country)...

In our attempt to analyze Chinese mentality, I feel we are over-analyzing their history and mind-set while all they're doing is simple assertion of power and using it for their neo-colonial objectives...
-
What we have today is one regional power, which is trying to project itself as a global power, and played its cards too early, only to be branded as a neo-Nazi state...
However, it is indeed challenging the Western hegemony at some level...
The West want to bring it under control...
So, the West want us to destroy CCP on their behalf (atleast weaken it enough for them to come and mop up the rest)...

China sees Indians as foot-soldiers of West due to their own colonial experiences like Opium Wars... They also see India as a potential regional competitor, if not already one and want to put us in our place...

India, on its part, only want to be left alone... The only problems India has with China is the unsettled border, their constant bullying and their interference in Pakistan... Once these things are settled, India has no reason to fight CCP...
Infact, if China uses some actual brains and plan their diplomatic moves properly, India can even become its ally...

But I feel, due to their misreading of history, their strategy towards us is clouded and, being a narcissistic power, they refuse to see the bigger picture...

I guess, they assume that, even if present govt. don't have plans to desteoy CCP, some future Indian govt. may ally with the West and destroy them (even though it may never happen)... So, it is in their interests to keep us weak militarily and economically... And in that process they made an enemy out of us...

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 19840
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Karan M » 13 Jul 2020 19:31

Sachin, I think the OP was just playing up Tejas to point out how useful it is in the current scenario. He is super cheesed off at the lack of interest shown by the IAF/MOD/etc etc in the platform. And TBH - that part is getting more and more bizarre by the day. We are pushing for 12 more Su-30 and 21 MiG-29s but don't have the funds to order 83 Mk1A. I only hope that by when we do order it, we don't see further delays because we ordered it so late. Plus why only 83 MK1A is a question that needs to be asked. A 500km combat radius fighter with 100% buffer (2000 km range w/ 7 pylons), is definitely sufficient to take Pak on, with 4x active pylons, and 2x FT. Yes, a Rafale or Su-30 can lug far more, but for every Rafale, you get two Tejas or even more (our LSP run rate is leading to higher per unit costs).

Rs_singh
BRFite
Posts: 201
Joined: 21 Jun 2020 23:16

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 13 Jul 2020 19:52

Tejas is more than adequate to take on our friends in the west, as you rightly say. My gripe is why the army hasn’t doubled down on the LCH yet? Last I remember, some 200 odd nos were stipulated, I wonder if even 1 (4) LCH is ordered for service trials. OT for this thread, I know. Please feel free to move it.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21054
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Philip » 13 Jul 2020 20:11

Not wanting to repeat earlier thoughts, the MEA's China policy has a much longer history. It didn't start with the Modi regime,it was a mentality that existed back in the late 20th. century. I won't relate the tale,but take my word for it,despite umpteen warnings about the Chinese plans for the IOR,etc. they were repeatedly scorned at by a Paki obsessed establishment in the Delhi Durbar. All the warning signals were ignored by the MEA,because they're great talkers,but forget that foreign policy not backed by the military won't get you to "walk the talk".

Even after almost overnight their squatting in Hambantota,ironically offered to us ( TWICE!), SL was viewed with disdain by our diplomutts who thought a bark from South Block would see the Lankan leaders drop their sarongs and salute. A few millions invested in the island on gifted projects would've kept the Chinese out.At one time even the hard line JVP wanted the govt. to offer Trinco to us as a base to help defeat the LTTE. We deliberately rejected almost all gestures from SL fondly thinking it was so close to us geographically and would obey our diktat. We have NEVER leveraged our Buddhist heritage with the Sinhalese,majority who are Buddhists ,almost all who came centuries dgo from Kalinga, modern Orissa. Many of our diplomats were very arrogant when posted in smaller countries. We've just had the HC in B'desh removed in indecent haste ,replaced by a veteran ambassador, to try and save BD from going China's way too.BD and Hasina has been one of our closest allies in the neighbourhood. Let's not also talk about Nepal ,again another fiasco and black mark on the Modi report card.

I agree though that the extravagant welcomes to XI by the GOI thought to be sufficient to keep XI mellow,were an unmitigated catastrophe.Especially for Jaishankar who served as ambassador there and allegedly still knows no mandarin.
I warned after the Mahabalipuram tamasha that Modi would get backstabbed just like Nehru and it happened. Our entire China policy as I said is now in ashes and sadly for the PM a huge black mark against his record. He has to weild the broom to sweep out the cobwebbed minds still squatting in the MEA and bring in more military men into the drawing up our foreign policy in an era of great insecurity.

It is true that China will not have an easy time against the IN even with their bases at Gwadar/ Jiwani,Djibouti,etc.,but theywill be able to permanently station at least a dozen subs in addition to another dozen+ of the PN. Together,China and Pak can outnumber our fleet of subx planned for only 24 by the next decade,when we need at least 36 to 40+ . If we are going to take thf battle to the ICS ,plan ops against Hainan and other major Chinese ports, then we will need to have our own full-fledged naval bases in the ICS plus more SSGNs/ SSNs.There are two options ,Vietnam and the Phillippines. Indonesia has also agreed to give us unspecified port facilities at Sabang too,which needs considerable development.

Remember that apart from oil- and I mentioned the latest $500B deal with Iran,another loss for the MEA, for massive oil shipments
plus investment inthat country,military training,arms sales,etc. Here too I predicted a decade ago that Iran and China would become close allies because of thf stupid US policies against it. Our still incomplete port at Chahbahar now looks v.unimportant to Iran after the new Chinese deal.

We do forget though that interdicting Chinese tankers and MVs which carry their trade must bd a key priority and objective of the GOI. Like the Germans in WW2,the IOR must be turned into an Indian lake where dozens of IN subs apart from other surface combatants and aircraft can sanitise the region. Onf of the key requisites is possessing LR supersonic maritime strike aircraft like Backfires or more expensive Blackjacks ,which can carry at least a dozen+ super and hypersonic missiles.The range of these aircraft from mainland India ,with refuelling if reqd., can carry out offensive strikes in the ICS. IAF/IN fighters like MKIs operating from the ANC at the Campbell Bay air baee,can also provide cover for the the bombers. Our obsession with ouf land frontiers and rarely thinking outside the box only plays into the hands of the Chinese. We must be extremely unpredictable in our military operations,always hitting the enemy where he is weakest. A few flaming datums in the IOR will have a huge effect on Chinese trade,exports,oil supplies ,hitting it at its soft underbelly in the IOR.
Last edited by Philip on 13 Jul 2020 20:19, edited 1 time in total.

Rs_singh
BRFite
Posts: 201
Joined: 21 Jun 2020 23:16

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 13 Jul 2020 20:17

Thought I would leave this here as something to ponder over when looking at large force deployment and mobilization for sustained ops along the eastern front(s) :
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Location-of-existing-strategic-oil-reserve-bases-in-China-Red-boxes-indicate-SPR-sites_fig2_318636518

ks_sachin
BRFite
Posts: 1543
Joined: 24 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: Sydney

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 13 Jul 2020 20:36

Karan M wrote:Sachin, I think the OP was just playing up Tejas to point out how useful it is in the current scenario. He is super cheesed off at the lack of interest shown by the IAF/MOD/etc etc in the platform. And TBH - that part is getting more and more bizarre by the day. We are pushing for 12 more Su-30 and 21 MiG-29s but don't have the funds to order 83 Mk1A. I only hope that by when we do order it, we don't see further delays because we ordered it so late. Plus why only 83 MK1A is a question that needs to be asked. A 500km combat radius fighter with 100% buffer (2000 km range w/ 7 pylons), is definitely sufficient to take Pak on, with 4x active pylons, and 2x FT. Yes, a Rafale or Su-30 can lug far more, but for every Rafale, you get two Tejas or even more (our LSP run rate is leading to higher per unit costs).


You are preaching to the converted Karan.
But I look at posts sometimes and cannot resist....

Rs_singh
BRFite
Posts: 201
Joined: 21 Jun 2020 23:16

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 13 Jul 2020 20:49

Philip,

24 subs operating at out of Gwadar? Yum!
Our hungry fishes would love that meal given the shallow and narrow channel it really is. Or did I misunderstand you and you meant IOR?

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 9781
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rakesh » 13 Jul 2020 21:56

k prasad wrote:@Ssridhar... whats the reason for the warning to SidSoma? Great explanation btw.

k prasad wrote:Just trying to understand the forum rules thats all... esp if the warning was for anything in the posts openly readable on the forum.

I've been here for nearly 13 years, but sometimes the rules are still confusing.

The most important rule you should know is to NOT question a moderator's decision on the forum. Everything else you will learn (if you already have not) along the way. You have been here 13 years. You should know that by now.

There was no need for you to get involved when SSridhar Sir was disciplining another member. Take this advice as a warning. Next time, there will be a ban. And I am not interested in listening to any feedback from you either on this issue. Move On.

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 9781
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rakesh » 13 Jul 2020 22:04

SidSoma wrote:If provoking thought deserves a ban please fire away. :)

Since you want to be snarky about it, your wish has been granted. Enjoy a one month time off.

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4050
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 13 Jul 2020 22:17

I am hearing emergency purchases of American rifles, Israeli SAM, loitering UAV, Russian Mig29s, Manpads etc...

No emergency purchase of Indian kit. LCA, LCH, 155MM ULH. No extra purchase of LCA FOC...nothing. :roll:

Only gyaan on need to go local by the stakeholders. Since 2016, it has been almost a state of war and emergency foreign purchases. But nothing local.

I am really curious to know if our military & political leadership believes we can win a war with urgent purchase of foreign kit. We are a bigger Saudis, aren't we.

Rs_singh
BRFite
Posts: 201
Joined: 21 Jun 2020 23:16

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 13 Jul 2020 22:21

nam wrote:I am hearing emergency purchases of American rifles, Israeli SAM, loitering UAV, Russian Mig29s, Manpads etc...


I am really curious to know if our military & political leadership believes we can win a war with urgent purchase of foreign kit. We are a bigger Saudis, aren't we.

No sir. Bigger Pakistan. We are not true believers.

Mukesh.Kumar
BRFite
Posts: 1183
Joined: 06 Dec 2009 14:09

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 13 Jul 2020 22:26

ramana wrote:Even a simplified Red team game is very useful.

Errr Ramana-ji what is a Red Team game?
Last edited by Rakesh on 13 Jul 2020 22:28, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Please DO NOT quote the entire post to put in a one-liner. Edited your post.

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4322
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KLNMurthy » 13 Jul 2020 22:29

Has China's Rise Peaked?

Author Merrick Carey (washington DC think-tank guy) says yes. Considers China as a military competitor of the US. Contains short overview of Chinese weapons systems and strategic positioning and why none of it is any good.
Last edited by KLNMurthy on 13 Jul 2020 22:33, edited 1 time in total.

Mukesh.Kumar
BRFite
Posts: 1183
Joined: 06 Dec 2009 14:09

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 13 Jul 2020 22:33

Cain Marko wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:Cain- ji, my contention is based on holding the ground. This is not Uri surgical strike. But practically holding ground. I assumed things very favorably. Assuming that we eliminate half of Pak forces we would still have 12500 odd personnel to subdue who will have a chance to regroup and play spoil sport. In mountains you need 12 times the force. Normal circumstances you need 3 times. I just assumed 2.4 X @ 30K Indian troops. Can't be more optimistic. Once big thing you forget about Tangail air drop were the objectives and the fact that the Pakistanis were operating in hostile situation. May not be so easily compared.


I agree with the premise that you need to outnumber the opponent by large numbers in the mountains so as to capture territory. Holding however is not the same as taking over.

My point is that this works both ways. After initial barrage, airdrops like tangail will ensure that 2-3 key nodes, say GB and Skardu airport will be in Indian control in a few hours. the pakistanis need to first get their bearings together, then regroup. Where? All usual locations will be fodder for IAF and missile strikes. At this point they'll have to scatter in order to avoid providing juicy targets. Using the mountains for cover, which means that they are already operating as a rag tag force. Their biggest problem now is not even regrouping, it is actually managing supplies. Remember there is only one real highway into this area from tsp. And that can be monitored.

IOWs, the burden of taking over now becomes theirs, and as you say that is not easy.


(Sorry for the late response. )

Sir, in theory I write line the idea. But with hostile civvies and at least 10K odds armed men who know the land better it will not be easy. Here's my reasoning:
1. We will have a supply issue also. At best it's going to be a Mexican standoff. You only have air to reapply from
2. To breakout from the pockets you will need to hunt down a substantial subset of these remaining armed fighters. For that you need numbers. Air power does not cut it in normal circumstances, definitely in mountainous terrain. Rather than a victory march I foresee a Black Hawk down tedux on a massive scale.

No you need numbers to break through.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 13 Jul 2020 23:47

Philip wrote:I agree though that the extravagant welcomes to XI by the GOI thought to be sufficient to keep XI mellow,were an unmitigated catastrophe.Especially for Jaishankar who served as ambassador there and allegedly still knows no mandarin.
I warned after the Mahabalipuram tamasha that Modi would get backstabbed just like Nehru and it happened. Our entire China policy as I said is now in ashes and sadly for the PM a huge black mark against his record. He has to weild the broom to sweep out the cobwebbed minds still squatting in the MEA and bring in more military men into the drawing up our foreign policy in an era of great insecurity.
I don't mind the extravagant welcomes for Xi by Modi. I would possibly arrange for a bigger one if I could. My problem with this GOI as well as the rest is that they think that saam, daam, danda and bheda should be applied sequentially. I differ. They can ALL be applied simultaneously! The same attitude has been on display when dealing with Bakistan in the past. I simply don't understand that mental model!

I would have thrown a bigger welcome for Xi if that was possible BUT from day 1 would have implemented reciprocal non-tarrif measures against China till the balance of trade was restored.

The measures would keep escalating till either Chinese imports came down to the level of Indian exports or Indian exports jumped up to the Chinese imports level or they met and balanced somewhere in the between. This could have been conveyed to China without even talking to them. The Indian importers and Chinese exporters would have delivered the message to the CCP via the import/export data.

Similar policy wrt border issues and IOR.

Subs are hidden during patrol but they too need to return to their home port to re-replenish. IIRC, there is hardly any Naval facility at Gwadar as it stands now.

India is unable to lock the IOR and we are dreaming of going to Champa sea? India simply cannot afford such an extravagant plan in the short-term of 10-15 years. Our best bet still remain aligning with like minded parties i.e. America, Japan, Australia, French, Indonesia and other able and willing IOR countries to create grid that will be able to track all Chinese subs in the region while leaving the defense of Champa sea to America/Japan and its allies in that region.

Chinese already get a lot of oil and gas from Russia and Central Asian republic and Iran oil too could be routed over land, through the central asian republic, bypassing the IOR completely. While such a scenario would cripple their economy, China would have access to ample oil to prosecute a long war on its borders even if 25% (just a number that seems resonable) of its oil imports are met.

AdityaM
BRFite
Posts: 1980
Joined: 30 Sep 2002 11:31
Location: New Delhi

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby AdityaM » 14 Jul 2020 01:55

Fairly balanced and interesting talk by Gen Panag related to LAC
Hear him without any bias.

https://twitter.com/rwac48/status/12826 ... 96961?s=21

Recommended by another veteran.
https://twitter.com/realkaypius/status/ ... 58369?s=21

Should hear from 40 min onwards.

banrjeer
BRFite
Posts: 350
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 14:39

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby banrjeer » 14 Jul 2020 02:32

Deans wrote:
williams wrote:
I think we have a logistics agreement with Singapore, Australia, the US, Russia, France, South Korea, UK, and Japan. In theory, we can refuel in all the US bases in the region. I am not sure about subs though. Here is a map of the bases where our ships can refuel. Credit: https://idsa.in/idsacomments/military-logistics-agreements-rthomas-261119

Image

According to the below article, USN ships can replenish IN ships;

https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/us-merchant-marine-ship-replenishes-indian-navy-ship-in-south-china-sea/


With these agreements, we have virtually got ourselves a `string of pearls' for free.
The flaw in China's own strong of pearls strategy, is that is dependent on coercing host countries into giving up land, because they can't pay up loans issued on unviable terms. There is a big risk that a change in strongman/dictator/general in the host country will put their whole BRI investment at risk. When they do operate a base, there is a risk of putting vessels thousands of miles of home without any support. They have done this because small groups of soldiers intruding across the LAC have intimidated us. If we change our mindset, we should view the strong of pearls bases as being under a serious and permanent threat from IN/IAF or an amphibious landing.

On the other hand, China will have to devote considerable resources to guard against the possibility that we MIGHT use any of the bases we have agreements for. A single P-8i aircraft in Seyshelles or Deigo Garcia, or an indication that we can refuel a sub there, will lead to re-routing for a thousand Chinese ships passing through the area, allocation of surface ships for convoy escort etc. We, in contrast, have a negligible number of merchant ships to worry about.


Then CPEC road and Gwadar is their other logistical link. Lets discount any military intervention, how efficient is the overland route? Is it an all weather?

Vivasvat
BRFite
Posts: 336
Joined: 11 May 2005 08:03

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Vivasvat » 14 Jul 2020 02:38

Posting here as it might be relevant to the current situation
Admins, pl. remove if you feel it does not belong
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

@Joyce_Karam
·
2h
BREAKING: US Rejects All Major #China Claims in South China Sea .
Serious escalation. Mike Pompeo’s statement just now:

Image

Jarita
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2492
Joined: 30 Oct 2009 22:27
Location: Andromeda

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Jarita » 14 Jul 2020 03:07

This is great twitter thread on how India's indigenous development has been strangled by the import lobby which exists in both the babu community as well as some of the armed forces (we can see residue of that with the likes of Phhoookla and such). I see that the indigen thread is dead hence posting here.
https://twitter.com/drukkk/status/1281867978733023232

Story of Prahaar Battlefield Missile developed by DRDO. Proved in 2011. Army Orders ZERO even after 10 years

Prahaar missile length of 7.3 metres , diameter of 0.42 metres and weight 1280kg. Warhead of 200 kg. Range over 150 kilometres.


Story starts with Govt permission to start developing Ballistic Missile Defence System in 1990s.

Two interceptor SAM missiles were developed for BMD systems AAD & PAD/PDV

AAD was publically shown in 2007 as fully developed missile

AAD Became the basis of Prahaar. The missile was already fully developed & was simplified for its use as Prahaar.

Seeker was removed & warhead size was increased. Voila we have fully developed Prahhar, successfully tested in 2011

Battlefield missiles are produced, exported & used by many nations like

USA ATACMS
Russia Tochka
ISRAEL Lora etc
China SY400

China has its own WS32 & SY400 equivalents which is not only deployed on Border with PLA But also exported to numerous nations

So What does Our Indian Army do? looking at importance of inductiong equivalent indigenous systems?

It refuses & asks for Improvements. So Prahaar becomes Pragati with range increase to 170km+

It strongly seems Army is delaying all surface to surface missile production & induction

1. Guided Pinaka-2 range 90km

2 Prahhar Guided missile Range 150km

3. Pralaay Guided missile Range 400-800km

So we are left with only few Pinaka Unguided Rockets 40-60km range only

Miltary has long history of moving the Goal posts to spite indigenous developments. Let me give you extract from CAG report for Air Defence Guns

Remember A famous German Co. Was trying to supply Air Defence Gun, in those days. (Subsequently black listed)

Brahmos is 2000% or 20x more costly than Prahaar. Brahmos is a very costly system & hence can be used for important targets & not routine battlefied support.

In any case, as I said Army loves imports & Brahmos is imported


Please read through his tweets.

suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3828
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby suryag » 14 Jul 2020 03:15

Jarita ji - please post in appropriate thread(r&d thread), your post is irrelevant in this thread

Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4701
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Manish_Sharma » 14 Jul 2020 04:09

Former Deputy Chief of Indian Army Staff Lt General Gurmit Singh exposes pro-China lobbyists on incursions in Ladakh with a pointwise rejoinder
|12-Jul-2020|

https://www.organiser.org/Encyc/2020/7/ ... inder.html

Lt General Gurmit Singh, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, VSM ( Retired) is a Former Deputy Chief of Army Staff. He was Corps Commander at Srinagar and Additional DGMO. He is also a Distinguished Fellow at CLAWS and is a well known face on TV Debates & Seminars as an Defence Expert.

As most of us know, while the Indian Army has officially said that the Chinese PLA has moved back by 1-2 kms from the flash point at Galwan, a pro-China lobby within India has tried to lampoon the Indian Army and official position of India with unproved claims and insinuations. They have repeatedly towed the Chinese line in the recent incursions by the PLA and have undermined the efforts and sacrifice of the Indian Army.

In a 12-point rejoinder, Lt General Gurmit Singh (Retd) has exposed the pro-Chinese cabal including the likes of self-proclaimed defence experts Ajai Shukla and anchors like Karan Thapar.

In his rejoinder, Lt. General says the assertions of Ajai Shukla that government briefings as untrue, that LAC has shifted several kilometers Westwards and that there has been no Disengagement are matters of national security. Saying that his points are from the Chinese Deep State, Lt. General points to Ajai Shukla's other allegations like: Chinese have intruded 2.4 Kms; or that the Entire Buffer Zone will be set up in Indian Territory; that Chinese are refusing to vacate Indian Territory and that the Indian Troops have been pushed back.

He then says that such confusions and doubts are being planted by the Chinese. The target of such allegations are the government, Army and the Media too, he says. The government version is brushed aside as misleading the media or as putting pressure on the Army. The Army version is lampooned as a sporting line given by the NSA. The media version that is not to his liking is charged as no culture to question the Army, writes the Lt. General.

Lt. General then says that accusation of Intelligence Lapse or Operational Lapses are 'Total, Absolute & Accusative Lies'. He then questions the anchor Karan Thapar as one who supports such accusations as he had thanked Ajai Shukla for 'Speaking Truthfully'. How can the anchor know if Ajai Shukla's assertions were Truthful/ Lie/ Concoctions/ asks the Lt. General.

He then says that such people are part of China Proxies and are Anti India. 'Just an OGW - Over Ground Worker', says the Lt. General.

Writing about the situtation at the LAC, Lt. General writes "LAC Clarification is still Unfinished Process between India and China. Attempt to Exchange Maps with Respective LAC marking of East Ladakh failed in 2002. Negotiations & Discussions still to be done", he tweeted. Since these matters are still Sub Judice still, Ajai Shukla's assertions may jeopardizes the Process, writes Lt General Gurmit Singh.

He finally tweets about his background on the matter in order to provide his credentials to speak on the matter. He wrote that he was Director China in Military Operation Headquarters from 2000, has Researched Two Years on India China Border Issue between 2004 and 2006, has Visited China Seven Times from 2000 to 2012 as part of Annual Dialogues and Military Delegations. He also wrote that he has done a course at Taipei, Taiwan in PLA and PRC.

Below is the rejoinder tweeted by the decorated Lt. General from his handle @LtGenGurmit.

Ajai Shukla (Business Standard) is 96% WRONG & is just a Front Face of #China Lobby/Proxy/#AntiIndia Syndicate. 12 Points to Prove The Subverses of Subversion:

1. His Assertions : * GOVERNMENT Briefings : Untrue... * LAC shifted...* LAC shifted several Kilometers Westwards...* No Disengagement at ... That too, when, #Chinese Challenge & Conflict still Not Over - Matter of National Security...

2. His all Points are from #Chinese Deep State...* #Chinese intruded 2.4 Kms...* Entire Buffer Zone will be set up in #Indian Territory...* #Chinese refusing to vacate #Indian Territory...* #Indian Troops pushed back...

3. Confusion/Doubt being planted by #Chinese...* #Chinese side will NOT even accept Buffer Zone...* #China PLA has refused to withdraw...

4. His TARGETS...* GOVERNMENT : Misleading Media...Putting Pressure on ARMY...* ARMY : Sporting Line given by NSA... MEDIA : No culture to Question Army...*@PMOIndia : PM Statement contradicted...

5. Total, Absolute & Accusative Lies : * Intelligence Lapse...* Operational Lapses...* False Pucture...

6. Karan Ji, as Support, Moulder & Anchor...*@ajaishukla : Very Confident of His Claims...* Multiple Sources...* Thanked Him for Speaking Truthfully...(How does He know ?... Truthful/Lie/Concoctions/ ?)...

7. 93 % : He is part of #China Proxy & Anti #India : Just an OGW - Over Ground Worker...

8. Only CHINESE relate to East #Ladakh as Boundary & 1962 References...#India relates it to LAC & Obviously, His Notes originated from the #Chinese...

9. Conflict & Response to #Chinese Challenge is Still Not Over...Status of National Security Moments....Strategic Timing of His Assertion is Hugely Suspect...

10. LAC Clarification is still Unfinished Process between #India & #China...Attempt to Exchange Maps with Respective LAC marking of East #Ladakh failed in 2002..Negotiations & Discussions still to be done..Sub Judice still...His Assertions may jeopardizes the Process

11. My Humble Background on This Topic:

* Director China in Military Operation Headquarters from 2000...
* Researched Two Years on India China Border Issue...2004-6
* Visited China Seven Times...2000-12..for EG, JWG, Annual Dialogue, Military Delegation....
* Course at Taipei, Taiwan in PLA & PRC

Raveen
BRFite
Posts: 835
Joined: 18 Jun 2008 00:51
Location: 1/2 way between the gutter and the stars
Contact:

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Raveen » 14 Jul 2020 04:21

AdityaM wrote:Fairly balanced and interesting talk by Gen Panag related to LAC
Hear him without any bias.

His Congi background, mixed with her Aapiyaness are pretty apparent.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54822
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 14 Jul 2020 04:25

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
ramana wrote:Even a simplified Red team game is very useful.

Errr Ramana-ji what is a Red Team game?



Red Team gaming is put yourself in the opponents' shoes and see how things are
Or in N^3 words think like a Paki.

banrjeer
BRFite
Posts: 350
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 14:39

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby banrjeer » 14 Jul 2020 04:59

kirpalbasra wrote:
Philip wrote:Mahesh,don't shoot the messenger,counter the message.Personal like or dislikes result in subjective judgement.

Hindu frontpage today.
Months of planning went into XI's Himalayan gambit launched at Ladakh and at several places along the Indo- Sino LAC.
Under the guise of training exercises ,the Chinks masked their operations with large numbers of troops trained far away from the border who moved in ostensibly for the trg. exercises.
The careful advance planning was evident as at all flashpoints,the Chinks operations took place almost simultaneously,at least within a few hours of each other. This revealed that this was a well-planned campaign against India that had months of advance preparations to catch us unguarded,which they did.
rity, " don't annoy China".


To make matters worse if Trump does not get in November you will have unfriendly USA who will play the Kashmir and human rights card to the full,



India has been a vacillator hedging a peanut here another there with no with no long term vision or gain. It needs successive kicks in the nuts to make choices.

We should thank China for fulfilling that.

Chahbahhar was always going to fall into the Chinese lap. So a clean break is cheaper in the long run than this wistful ... "what a rollicking time India would have had with Iran" and what not...
With allies like Pakistan and Iran China is not doing that great.

Yes India has to live with the reality of a Biden win, with some chance of funds leaking back to our west. So other cards are available. Remember Obama and Trump were equally zealous in bombing Houthis. Part of the reason was to keep US defense cos in business.

And this is where arms deals can be used strategically. All large sales should come with an exclusivity rider. applying to both the US and USSR. Out of the two the US is not going to sell to China. The USSR will sell to anyone china, Assad , Turkey , but out of self interest there will be limits since it shares a large border with China.

Yes it may means a loss for desi production, but it's not just about the edge in weaponry but the differential edge and the leverage then spend gives us in checking proliferation in the neighborhood.


Return to “Military Issues & History Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Kritavarman, nandakumar and 60 guests