India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[SSridhar]

Lt Gen N, definitely represents views of CSG. I earlier thought that he was defending the Govt response but now I have a feeling that he is defending views of CSG.

CSG is the advisory group to GoI on China. Period.

He says that Sumurdong Chu has been vacated by China, Has it? Or I heard it wrong?

No you heard it right. But, he said 'only after seven years'.

I also feel that CSG is still viewing the situation as a serious border patrol scuffle rather than China moving to emerge as world power & being ready to make necessary sacrifices.

I don't think so.

(I may be wrong in my reading of CSG.)

Yes. Composition has changed with times and superb minds are there.

[nam]

Except for opposite the Depsang plains, such a situation is not there on the LAC in the Ladakh sector. Just as an example, in 1962 Rezang La was crested against Indian artillery support because of the intervening Pt. 18300. And looking at the terrain in Depsang, if we have to break up massed armor formations, I would choose rocket artillery, not tube artillery.

And even in Kargil, the tube artillery batteries were dispersed in twos and threes due to lack of space or crowded together wheel to wheel.

It is not sufficient to clear peaks, it is also necessary to have the needed trajectory on the other side to be able to hit targets at depth. The higher the angle of fire to clear crests, the narrower the range on the other side. That is why direct fire mode was used in Kargil, because we were targeting bunkers on the mountain tops.

That number does not sound right - source please. Rather, 80% of PA casualties were caused by our artillery fire. And that was because they were stationary targets, not moving columns.

Non sequitur. The question is not about lateral length and even if that were the case, what is the relevance of 3400 km when we are talking about a less than 100 km frontage in Ladakh now?

It is also worth thinking why there is the purchase of limited number of M-777 ULH (even if it is 155 mm caliber), a USP of which is its ability to be transported between valleys.

What does that say about how many artillery tubes are expected to be employed as full battery detachments?

This is not to discount the use of artillery. Merely to suggest that to prevail over the Chinese in Ladakh, that is not likely to be the decisive arm.

I agree high angle reduces range, however modern 155MM which comes in 45+ KM range is obviously better than older FH77. This longer ranges allows deployment in depth, which means counter battery by PLA becomes even more difficult. They have to hit us at higher angle, means lower range. PLA has D30 variant as their towed and it is a field gun!

In those rarefied env of LAC, our ATAGS would probably get close to 60KM. I understand there will be accuracy issue, but it would have been an phenomenal capability, if it was resolved and inducted. If the guns are to deployed in various location, it is probably good from an counter battery point of view. As long as they can concentrate on specific target, it will be fine.

I did read that majority our casualties were men getting hit by artillery while doing frontal assault.Needless to say PA had artillery spotter on the posts. This would apply to the PLA as well, as majority of their attacks would be infantry driven. There are only few areas where armor can come in. All their propaganda videos have PLA attacking Indian positions at heights by their infantry and support elements.

We also cannot make the mistake of limiting our response to only Ladakh. It will be playing in the Chinese hand, who want a short, localised fight to overwhelm us with their kit. Hence my view that with 3400KM LAC, mass firepower will be key to knock off any PLA offensive & mobilisation.

[Gyan]

Lt Gen N, definitely represents views of CSG. I earlier thought that he was defending the Govt response but now I have a feeling that he is defending views of CSG.

He says that Sumurdong Chu has been vacated by China, Has it? Or I heard it wrong?

I don't know much about border situations but I know a bit about economics & industry. CSG indicated views are wrong & out dated. I think CSG is China love Group.

I also feel that CSG is still viewing the situation as a serious border patrol scuffle rather than China moving to emerge as world power & being ready to make necessary sacrifices.

(I may be wrong in my reading of CSG.)

Note:- I am against initiating military action but feel that its time we begin all out economic decoupling.

Your reading of CSG is insightful. Please also correlate to comments by previous foreign secretaries, ambassadors. You will find that our institutional understanding of China is through rose tinted glasses. It does not help that many (not all) military officers who rise to Lt Gen rank and above tend to be a little risk averse. Therefore the advice that political leadership is given is defensive, 'let's defuse the situation'. Offensive options are also given but not often as recommendations.

Do we understand Chinese intentions, are we underestimating our military capabilities, are we being too defensive, what is our desire for deescalation signalling to China ?

All these questions need serious consideration. Personally I find the clearest thinking coming from Mr Jayadev Ranade and Maj Gen GD Bakshi.

These are my personal views only.

I think even as (serious) amateurs we have to be careful talking lightly about military action. Ultimately China has put us on backfoot using a few trucks & soldiers armed with baseball bats & rods. It does require introspection about our Military procurement planning. I have been saying since 1999, on this forum that Kargill should be lesson for Indo China border, but as obvious no one cared.

Anyhow, my main expertise is in Economy & industry where China is absolutely smashing us. We will lose Delhi while fighting for Pangsong Tso.

What China is doing to India is 10x of What AG Barr talked about their activities in USA.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/video/attor ... ial-museum

After Pranab Mukherjee, we have noone in India who has even 1% understanding of modern economics. And yes, I know about allegations against Pranab but look at results, see Reliance.

I have serious issues with ability of Bureaucrats or Military Generals to do visionary planning at Macroeconomic & Geopolitical level, but any criticism will invite a ban. So suffice to say, they should follow Gen Manekshaw principles.

For instance, Army seemed to have made intelligent & careful tactical move when they retaliated at Galwan. I feel CSG group has lost the plot & is floundering but their view seems to be in drivers seat.

Note:- If any moderator has problem with my post, pls watch AG Barr Video first.

[pankajs]

Xpost -> Relevant to the evolving situation in Ladakh

Brig. Chatterji (Retd.) Interviewing Maj Gen Karki (Retd.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyIUThJac6s
Anti-Tank Missiles: Stopping Tanks in their Tracks

[RaviB]

V.good analysis in the Hindu by Antara Singh. Researcher at the Delhi Policy Group.Sudied at Tsinghua Univ.PRC, Chinese Language Fellow at the National Central Univ. Taiwan.
She says we must study what the Chinese top Indian watchers are saying to understand their motives.

Xcpts:

The PRC must take all opportunities to " take down " India,hit hard whenever possible. It will produce the same effects as in '62.India will buckle down to PRC diktat. A weak India succumbing to PRC pressure. A well-known Delhi analyst has told me that it has been " total surrender" so far from our side. That is debatable but from inside knowledge.
.

2. The Delhi based analyst has definitely redefined "total surrender"

The original publication on which this article is based, has cited all sources and this Delhi based analyst is never mentioned, so it's at best RUMINT

https://www.delhipolicygroup.org/public ... -1852.html

I would recommend reading the original policy brief because it is a bit more comprehensive and has links to all sources

Antara Singh had written another article based on an analysis of Chinese strategic writers back in April which is worth a read.

Starting high, ending low
...
To summarize, China in the last five years has defined and redefined India’s status and role in its strategic planning. Back in 2013-14, still largely unconvinced about India’s great power potential, China had aspired to ‘win over’ India and secure its support for a China-led regional order in Asia. However, with the passage of time, China is now better convinced of India’s role as its principal challenger in the secondary strategic direction, and has thereby rationalized its expectations from the bilateral relationship. The principle of ‘strategic competition and tactical cooperation’ is most likely to dominate China’s India policy in the coming years. ‘Appeasement’, ‘strategic patience’ and ‘teaching India a lesson’ are all considered viable options, as China awaits the ‘right time for these different means.’

My only quibble about the Hindu article is that the sources analysed are chosen rather indiscriminately (PhD students to Professors to retired diplomats, no military guys) which might give the wrong impression about what strategic thinking is being taken seriously. That is largely understandable since many of the most serious people will wait a few months before writing anything substantial. The discussion right now, based on my own sampling of sources is rather shrill and incoherent.

But there is a clear divide that's already apparent between PLA and MFA. The MFA wants deescalation, the PLA wants disengagement, for now.

[RaviB]

https://www.republicworld.com/india-new ... roops.html

Frankly speaking, the fork tongued lizard while talking about de-escalation will be preparing to start troubles in areas not dominated by IA.

Time to do the following:

1. Get Dalai Lama to come down to Rashtrapati bhavan.
2. Stop this one China crap
3. Start raising human right violations against this commie thugs
4. Stop cheap imports.
5. Recognize Taiwan
6. Provide anti ship missiles and corvettes to Vietnam


They are not dragons, but slimy lizards. Treat them with contempt, not respect.

Asgkhan ji, I think we shouldn't exoticise the Chinese, they are certainly not Sun Tzu citing, cone hat wearing, weiqi players. But we shouldn't get into the double forked tongue betrayers idea. Should we expect sincerity from the enemy? Frankly, if we get betrayed, it is our weakness and naiveté. As Dubya said fool me twice, shame on me.

They are a country with their own interests, several of which run counter to ours. They are analysable and understandable. Jayadev Ranade made the point that we should be aware of strategic shifts in China and anticipate what they are up to. If they surprise us, it's their success (and our failure, something for us to learn from)

1. Get Dalai Lama to come down to Rashtrapati bhavan.
I agree.

2. Stop this one China crap
We stopped doing this by 2017, or maybe even 2013. There is a ritual statement that all countries making joint statements with China are supposed to make respecting One China, we don't do this and haven't been doing this for quite some time. Gen. Narasimhan mentions this point in this fantastic interview with Cmde Vasan after the 60 min mark
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rYX51d7qNA&t=34s
This link was posted earlier, those who haven't watched it, please do. It's the most thorough, no-nonsense discussion I've seen so far

3. Start raising human right violations against this commie thugs
We've made a start with some weak statements on HK but of course we need to go stronger on this and match China's diplomatic noise on Kashmir by raising Xinjiang and HK

5. Recognize Taiwan
I don't agree with this. a) Taiwan has done nothing to earn this, b) Suraj ji mentioned elsewhere that Taiwan might not even want this, c) we incur a huge diplomatic cost to spite China. Spiting is for children, when we expend diplomatic capital, it should be to hurt China

I think military cooperation with Vietnam is already underway and coming along nicely. Deans ji in his book mentions an even deeper form of military cooperation with Vietnam, I don't know if it's based on reality.


They are not dragons, but slimy lizards. Treat them with contempt, not respect.[/quote]
This is fine for Republic TV and it's ok as a temporary expression of anger but we should treat the Chinese neither with respect, nor with contempt but with seriousness. We should analyse the hell out of them, we should understand every weakness, be able to exploit every chink (I know) in their armour. We should aim to understand them better than they understand themselves. If they are lizards, we should become Herpetologists. That IMO is how to treat a powerful enemy, not with emotional outbursts that cloud our judgment.

[Y I Patel]

Were we caught napping? Gen Narasimhan mentions in the interview with Mr Gokhle and Gen Anbu that “we picked up Chinese formations but could not match their speed of movement towards Finger 4”. Given that the Chinese have a metaled road while we have a precarious foot track, this is not surprising.

Letting them make the first move has been the standard practice anyway, right? It has the benefit of revealing Chinese aggression for what it is. So long as the response is quick and proportionate, India cannot be faulted for the way the situation has unfolded. Is blaming the victim justified?

[SSridhar]

6. Provide anti ship missiles and corvettes to Vietnam

BrahMos has long since arrived in Vietnam. Rest assured of that.

[RaviB]

https://twitter.com/antaragsingh/status ... 2373310464

There was concern [in China] about India’s procurement of Storm Shadow air launched, long-range cruise missiles (Anglo-French origin), which in the Chinese assessment, is the most powerful tactical weapon obtained by the Indian military in this round of military purchases.

This is the information I found about it

The Storm Shadow / SCALP is a long-range, air-launched, stand-off attack missile designed and developed by France-based MBDA Systems. The missile was developed primarily for the UK and French armed forces. It is derived from the MBDA Systems’ Apache anti-runway missile.

The missile is intended to strike high-valued stationary assets such as airbases, radar installations, communications hubs and port facilities. The Storm Shadow is capable of engaging the targets precisely in any weather conditions during day and night. The long range and low attitude combined with subsonic speed make the Storm Shadow a stealthy missile.

The Storm Shadow is also in service with the air forces of Italy, Greece, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It is referred to as Black Shaheen in the UAE Air Force service.

The Storm Shadow can be integrated into Tornado GR4, Tornado IDS, Saab Gripen, Mirage 2000, Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft.

Wikipedia

Maybe knowledgeable members can tell us about use cases and why the Chinis are afraid of this?

[RaviB]

Lt Gen N, definitely represents views of CSG. I earlier thought that he was defending the Govt response but now I have a feeling that he is defending views of CSG.

He says that Sumurdong Chu has been vacated by China, Has it? Or I heard it wrong?

I understood him as saying that both India and China withdrew from Sumdorong Chu and the entire situation lasted 7 years.

I don't know much about border situations but I know a bit about economics & industry. CSG indicated views are wrong & out dated. I think CSG is China love Group.

I also feel that CSG is still viewing the situation as a serious border patrol scuffle rather than China moving to emerge as world power & being ready to make necessary sacrifices.

Cmde. Vasan was quite emphatic about the necessity for economic decoupling. He even gave the example of the 2nd round of nuclear tests for which we paid the price of 3 years of economic sanction but ultimately emerged with massive strategic gains [and our economy was a whole lot weaker back then]. He said several times that economic decoupling will be painful but necessary. Gen. Narasimhan said that they had been discussing strategies about import dependence of APIs since last year. He also said that it's not one sided since a lot of these drugs are finished and then exported to China

[ParGha]

Maybe knowledgeable members can tell us about use cases and why the Chinis are afraid of this?

I am not too familiar with air systems, but I have worked with the vendor and one of its controlling firms. I couldn't understand the Tweet very clearly. Does it mean that India is buying Storm Shadow missiles on an emergency basis now?

[RaviB]

I am not too familiar with air systems, but I have worked with the vendor and one of its controlling firms. I couldn't understand the Tweet very clearly. Does it mean that India is buying Storm Shadow missiles on an emergency basis now?

According to this article Rafales are coming equipped with Storm Shadow missiles, with the first ones expected in Ambala in 2 weeks.

[ParGha]

According to this article Rafales are coming equipped with Storm Shadow missiles, with the first ones expected in Ambala in 2 weeks.

Ah, ok. If it is part of regular Rafale acquisition, then I am not so worried for India.

[Y I Patel]

I believe Gen Narasimhan is a member of NSAB in charge of China. CSG is different and he might also be part of it. Not sure

[D.Mahesh]

How exactly...[/u][/b]?

a. What....

... Media contacts where reporting that the PM is "very angry" at being back stabbed....complain via media.

Voices in your head don't count as media contacts And media contacts means BS.

[Gyan]

Its largely believed ( I have no source) that Sumurdong Chu is Still in Chinese Hands. Though its also believed that Gen Sundarerji retaliation by Operation Chequerboard & Falcon compensated way more than adequately, area wise.

[Suresh S]

https://twitter.com/Tiny_Dhillon/status ... 76834?s=20

A picture is more than a thousand words

[Gyan]

Lt Gen N, seems to be member of both NSAB & CSG. His whole tone & tenor makes me uncomfortable. He does not seem to have any solutions except narrating that historically talking solved the issue. Its interesting to see his style in contrast with Gen Maneckshaw. So I have to agree with views of Vidhur about him. I am afraid he has missed the drift of present day China.

His individual views would have been immaterial except for the fact that he seems to represent the views of two Institutions which may be the main Govt think tanks on the matter.

[Gyan]

Were we caught napping? Gen Narasimhan mentions in the interview with Mr Gokhle and Gen Anbu that “we picked up Chinese formations but could not match their speed of movement towards Finger 4”. Given that the Chinese have a metaled road while we have a precarious foot track, this is not surprising.

Letting them make the first move has been the standard practice anyway, right? It has the benefit of revealing Chinese aggression for what it is. So long as the response is quick and proportionate, India cannot be faulted for the way the situation has unfolded. Is blaming the victim justified?

Helicopters? Chinooks? We missed the boat by failing to be aggressive in May 2020. Galwan type limited retaliation should have been done at all the 5-7 points in mid May itself.

Army simply did not have escalation ladder prepared. Its either nothing except Bhajans or World War III.

What things did Major Gen Sam Maneckshaw ask PM Nehru when asked to take over Eastern front in 1962 ?

(Though war ended before he could do anything)

[Gyan]

Gen. Narasimhan said that they had been discussing strategies about import dependence of APIs since last year. He also said that it's not one sided since a lot of these drugs are finished and then exported to China

APIs has become a pretext to sit on our hands & do nothing even in economic front. Most of drugs made by using Chinese APIs are exported. Also some goods/APIs if required from China can always be smuggled through UAE, Singapore, Taiwan etc.

If APIs are so important then why no funds have been released to set up API factories which can come up in 6-8 months as Pvt Sector was earlier already manufacturing APIs.

All this gave me a feeling that CSG, NSAB feels helpless, has no knowledge of economic angle of subject at hand & hence no action due to confusion is the policy.

[Y I Patel]

^^^ An interesting question to ask is, when would it be most advantageous to be aggressive? May, or a few/several months later?

[RaviB]

Its largely believed ( I have no source) that Sumurdong Chu is Still in Chinese Hands. Though its also believed that Gen Sundarerji retaliation by Operation Chequerboard & Falcon compensated way more than adequately, area wise.

Based on the history section in BR, this is not the case, both sides withdrew simultaneously in 1995 and are now separated by 1 km or more

https://www.bharat-rakshak.com/ARMY/his ... ident.html

Rising tensions were lowered after a visit to China by the Indian External Affairs Minister in May 1987, where both sides reaffirmed their desire to continue talks on the border issue and to cool things down on the border. In August '87, Indian and Chinese troops moved their respective posts slightly apart in the S-C valley, after a meeting of the field commanders. During the 8th round of border talks on November '87, it was decided to upgrade the talks from the bureaucratic to the political level. Following Rajiv Gandhi's visit to China in 1988, a Joint Working Group (JWG) was set up to discuss, among other things, the alignment of the LAC [15]. In 1993, an agreement was inked between the foreign ministers of the two countries on the reduction of troops along the LAC. It was decided to pull back from respective forward check posts in the S-C valley from a situation of "close confrontation" and in 1994, the Indian MEA described the situation as one of "close proximity" where the respective posts were 50-100 yards apart [16]. Following the JWG meeting on April 1995, the two sides agreed to a simultaneous withdrawal of their troops from the four border posts - two Indian and two Chinese - in the S-C valley [3,15,17]. As of June 1999, the valley was unoccupied by either army, and their respective posts in the area were close to a kilometre apart [18].

[Y I Patel]

I hope people here appreciate the deep symbolism behind the Raksha Mantri's visit to Ladakh. Among other things, he was right there on Pangong Tso, probably where his line of sight included Chinese incursions.

[Iyersan]

Issue not resolved and has hit a roadblock. The only point remaining is does India have the political will to forcefully evict the chinese

[abhik]

Were we caught napping? Gen Narasimhan mentions in the interview with Mr Gokhle and Gen Anbu that “we picked up Chinese formations but could not match their speed of movement towards Finger 4”. Given that the Chinese have a metaled road while we have a precarious foot track, this is not surprising.

Letting them make the first move has been the standard practice anyway, right? It has the benefit of revealing Chinese aggression for what it is. So long as the response is quick and proportionate, India cannot be faulted for the way the situation has unfolded. Is blaming the victim justified?

I don't get this, we have metalled roads till finger 3 (<3Km away) with motorable track upto <1km form finger 4 edge. Yes the chinese have a metalled road till finger 4, but that does not explain how they even took the ridge line at F3/F4 - which at least to my armchair opinion we should not have a disadvantage. I don't see how there was no intel failure, plus once we realised what they were upto, we could clearly not mobilize anywhere fast enough to compensate.

[Gyan]

I don't think there was Intel failure. We saw them coming immediately. Maximum we would be a day behind. But what to do?, was the issue. No escalation ladder was planned. Now the Bureaucrats have talked themselves into in-action.

[Gyan]

^^^ An interesting question to ask is, when would it be most advantageous to be aggressive? May, or a few/several months later?

Till August rain, water, wet, muddy. Ground will start hardening from September. Time of action is September to November unless we can keep roads open even in December. January to March very difficult due to snow. April onwards again manageable perhaps.

Our helicopters without MAWS, DIRCM, Jammers will be sitting ducks. Kargill???

[arshyam]

What things did Major Gen Sam Maneckshaw ask PM Nehru when asked to take over Eastern front in 1962 ?

Interesting, what did he ask for?

[k prasad]

Does anyone have a full OSINT list of the 73 Indo-China Borde Roads projects? I'm trying to create a consolidated map of them, with all the passes and OSINT tunnels marked.

Unfortunately, the standing committee reports provide an incomplete list, and the BRO website seems to be down.

[Guddu]

Some nice maps in this NYT article
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ogin=email

[pankajs]

Popped up in my twitter feed today. Haven't read it myself 'cos long reads bore me.

https://www.orfonline.org/research/pla- ... 61735/?amp
PLA joint exercises in Tibet: Implications for India {26 February 2020}

[Gyan]

What things did Major Gen Sam Maneckshaw ask PM Nehru when asked to take over Eastern front in 1962 ?

Interesting, what did he ask for?

Well you fell into the trap. Major Gen Maneckshaw asked for "Nothing". He told Nehru that he was waiting for 18 months to join Action. He went into Operations Room, asked Army to stop withdrawing & start moving forward. Indian Army only lacked "Orders". (SOURCE: His Interview)

Every General today is expert on Geopolitics, Foreign Affairs, Domestic Politics, Economic Policies, procurement policies, Imports, Gardening etc etc.

Everything except Military action.

Army does not seem to be least bit embarrassed that few dozen unarmed Chinese soldiers pushed them back at multiple points on a hotly contested border. & we get gyan (on record) that negotiations for 7 years is best way to address the issue.

Bureaucrats seem to be completely subverted into inaction. (See AG Barr Video)

[nam]

A simple fact in this standoff is that the entire narrative is driven by us. The Chinese cannot show what is going on..And obviously our media is constantly feed..

The media focus is on Chinese intrusion in 4 places. It is not focused on the remaining part of LAC.. The Chinese cannot show any Indian intrusion, as it will cause pressure from their population to respond militarily, which they really don't want.

[Gyan]

Our Policy to vacate Kargill Peaks in winter was to do counter intrusion if Pak occupied something. But Kargill was so extensively intruded on such a broad front that we had to do well known hard work in 1999. I don't think India has done any counter area occupation to trade with China in present instance.

So Govt is driving the narrative abusing Modi & tweeting through Rahul Gandhi?

[nam]

If people take Rahul Gandhi seriously, he would have won the election.

All stories are through Indian media.. if GoI wanted something to NOT come in to the media, it will not come.

When the Chinis intruded in to Depsang in 2013.. IA went across Demchok. We came to know about this in 2020!

[Manish_Sharma]

I hope people here appreciate the deep symbolism behind the Raksha Mantri's visit to Ladakh. Among other things, he was right there on Pangong Tso, probably where his line of sight included Chinese incursions.

Anti Modi posters like Rs_singh are making fun of it. Calling it "politicians doing photo op, chai biskoot."

[Y I Patel]

I hope people here appreciate the deep symbolism behind the Raksha Mantri's visit to Ladakh. Among other things, he was right there on Pangong Tso, probably where his line of sight included Chinese incursions.

Anti Modi posters like Rs_singh are making fun of it. Calling it "politicians doing photo op, chai biskoot."

It's a free country, people can support who they want and believe what they believe. Now consider who will catch the signals it was supposed to send: our soldiers, aam aadmi, India's friends or those whose partnership India desires (e.g. Australia, Japan), Chinese leaders (including closet Xi opponents) powerful enough to have access to it, China's minions, America, profit hungry but militarily ineffectual Europeans, fence sitters, ASEAN countries too small and afraid of speaking out, Brishits... more than anything, this has been recorded for posterity and whatever follows will give context and real meaning to what has been said first by the PM and now by the RM.

Coming to the substance of what has been said, the RM said something important that is butchered in translation, but it is based on swaabhiman (self-respect). He said that if someone insults you, your personal swaabhiman is challenged, and you respond. In this case, he told the soldiers, your motherland's swabhimaan was challenged, and the country has full faith that you will respond appropriately. And he said it within sight of the location of first affront.

Just think for a moment what that symbolism means.

If it was an isolated mention of swaabhiman, that is notable in itself. But, very importantly, the PM himself used the same wording in his address to the nation after the all-party meeting.

At the very least, what this means to me is that this is no longer about the actual incursion or the deceitful manner in which the Chinese have conducted themselves. Unlike previous incursions, this has been taken as an affront that someone has dared to carry out against India. It means that status quo ante is just about maintaining peace for here and now, and even that will not be sufficient unless honor has been satisfied as well. So there are not going to be any face-saving compromises, because they cannot restore the sense of lost honor from the national affront that these actions represent.

[Guddu]

Anti Modi posters like Rs_singh are making fun of it. Calling it "politicians doing photo op, chai biskoot."

Coming to the substance of what has been said, the RM said something important that is butchered in translation, but it is based on swaabhiman (self-respect). He said that if someone insults you, your personal swaabhiman is challenged, and you respond. In this case, he told the soldiers, your motherland's swabhimaan was challenged, and the country has full faith that you will respond appropriately. And he said it within sight of the location of first affront.

Just think for a moment what that symbolism means.

If it was an isolated mention of swaabhiman, that is notable in itself. But, very importantly, the PM himself used the same wording in his address to the nation after the all-party meeting.

At the very least, what this means to me is that this is no longer about the actual incursion or the deceitful manner in which the Chinese have conducted themselves. Unlike previous incursions, this has been taken as an affront that someone has dared to carry out against India. It means that status quo ante is just about maintaining peace for here and now, and even that will not be sufficient unless honor has been satisfied as well. So there are not going to be any face-saving compromises, because they cannot restore the sense of lost honor from the national affront that these actions represent.

I noticed it too. Rajnathsingh ji has used the word "swabhimaan" some 1 month back in an interview too and said more or less the same thing at that time. He had also mentioned that this incursion by Chinese is "different" (bhinn) from before. In Ladakh he made a second strange comment, basically said he was not sure that diplomacy would work (very odd for someone used to saying "kadi ninda" and followed up by saying not even an inch of land will be given to China.

What all this means to me is that India and Modiji has decided that China MUST withdraw and failure to do so will result in military action. We are giving them time for talks to work out, action will be taken at a time of our choosing perhaps Sept/Oct. If this were not so, Modi/Rajnathsingh ji would not be going to the forward areas and raising troop morale. It is important to take action this year, so that the Chinese are on the backfoot. This will also be helpful when India goes for Gilgit-Baltistan and keep the Chinese away. I think China too realizes that CPEC is gone and they are making a back up play in Iran (Chabahar).

[Y I Patel]

There is more to timing a response than just weather. There are huge additional considerations, including preparing the country for the economic aspect of worsening India-China relationship and making sure that the current cultivation season passes off without a hitch. Right now, a bountiful harvest is India's great big hope in tiding it through some of the worst impacts of the Covid crisis.

Lastly, but very importantly, is the international dimension. US - China relations are at their worst point since Nixon reached out to them, but there is still a huge question mark as to what will happen after the elections - even if Trump gets re-elected, there are good reasons for India to worry that after the elections the winner will strike a deal with China which will free Xi up to focus hostilities against a more isolated India. On the other hand there is also cause to consider that the current US-China relationship will, if anything, worsen over the next several months and that state of affairs will continue under the next US admin (regardless of who wins). In that case, the stars will align for a continued coordinated and forceful response to China's bullying (and note that such a response would not directly imply that either US or India, jointly or separately, gets into a shooting war with China)

India has already crossed a huge mental block in this qualitatively different response to Chinese aggression, and it is wise for PM Modi to make haste slowly. Indira Gandhi waited a full six months after the onset of genocide in East Pakistan despite all the pressures on India at that time. PM Modi faces no comparable pressure, and thanks to the timely response, no one is sitting on the ridges directing arty fire at DSDBO road. With all that he has already done for India, ordinary Indians will trust him and give him all the time he needs to initiate the most appropriate response. And if the response does not involve shooting, that should be okay too. He does not have to impress Pappu or anyone on BRF.

[Y I Patel]

I left out the biggest timing consideration of them all - the Covid crisis. India is only now entering the most dangerous phase of community outbreak. Not the best time to get into a panga with a country that does not display the same level of concern for ordinary citizens