India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[abhik]

Baba reporting LOC is indeed hot!

https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/129 ... 15523?s=19

He tweets that at least once a week, usually with some extra masala like "Something big is happening" or "This time it is different".

[k prasad]

Baba reporting LOC is indeed hot!

https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/129 ... 15523?s=19

Shiv Aroor's Twitter has some more details:

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/1291686071865085952

JUST IN: 6 civilians injured in Pakistan Army ceasefire violation in LoC Tangdhar sector of north Kashmir. Specific targeting of civilian areas, says the Army.

[Tuan]

** Tuan, irrelevant post deleted **

[KL Dubey]

** Irrelevant post, deleted **

[SSridhar]

Please do not discuss American or Lankan politics here.

[wig]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 0o5cO.html

The PLA Aggressors: China’s eight top commanders who led Ladakh adventure
The Hindustan Times has put together details of Chinese military commanders involved in the on-going Ladakh stand-off. Many are CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping’s men.

[YashG]

Because from Modi's POV - When Biden get elected, the liberal bench in washington will get more active. It will put pressure on Modi's agenda. He can deflect that pressure only if he doesnt have Chinese breathing down his neck. Even pre Laddakh, his original move was to keep Xi/China close enough to be able to deflect American pressure on his his domestic policies. That move has now gone turtle.

When I wrote this post, these two new developments had not been reported/I dint know of them. Guys just connect the dots.
1.US Congressional Panel expresses bipartisan ‘concern’ over J&K situation https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/us-congressional-panel-expresses-bipartisan-concern-over-j-k-situation/story-1AaL9wPGMgmXvavRfarGnO.html
2. Shekhar Gupta analyses that Modi has plans to fix up stuff in Kashmir https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVblojoZkVE

Modi realises he will have to re-align to US concerns over the democrat liberal agenda. With Xinping camaraderie, he was trying to create a bulwark against this pressure.Some US democrats like Pramila Jayapal (yes Indian origin) are very vocal against Indian J&K issues- perhaps trying to prove their loyalty to their imperial masters.

This all just connects. The consequences will not be rosy, especially J&K.

[schinnas]

This is just election time and grandstanding and virtue signalling are to be expected from ignorant US congressmen and women who are out to get votes. US congressional panels use prevailing public / media sentiments to grandstand especially if there is no consequence to their grandstanding. US muslims have a huge lobby and are painting a negative portrayal on Kashmir. US Hindus and Indian American community and Indian embassy have failed to create a lobby or portray the J&K reality and reality of CAA properly.

For Dems, taking a pro-muslim stance will get them more votes because they expect Indian americans to meekly vote democrats anyways. For Republications, it is an opportunity to virtue signal and showcase that they are also standing for religious rights of minorities, etc., etc.

While India and Indian Americans need to learn to win the narrative in the west, don't think too much into it. Whether Dems or Republicans, the cold war with China is a reality going forward as Xi has revealed his pangs prematurely. Going forward, with the US public mood fully against China, no US President will want to have the legacy as the one who submitted meekly to China. US will need India more than the other way but it will be part transactional and part geo strategic than true marriage of hearts regardless of who comes to power.

[schinnas]

India's action on the border will be based on whether China withdraws before winter or not. Otherwise India will take counter actions before onset of winter (which coincides with US elections) whether it is counter occupation or forcible eviction of Cheeni intruders.

It will have nothing to do with what some dimwit US congressmen / women say.

[k prasad]

A large proportion of Indian-Americans actually vote Republican. In fact, most of the middle aged Indians I know personally voted for Trump. It's just the Indian voting bloc is too small in most places to make a big difference, especially with a fairly even party split.

[pankajs]

Pressure on Chinese is increasing. The longer they dribble this, they will get more and more boiled.

Their best chance out of this would be to make some new status quo and cool down. Question is will Modi allow this. If the political fallout of this compromise is not a lot, he will and just buy his peace. At the end he needs time to fix his re-election, spend time on party work.

Because from Modi's POV - When Biden get elected, the liberal bench in washington will get more active. It will put pressure on Modi's agenda. He can deflect that pressure only if he doesnt have Chinese breathing down his neck. Even pre Laddakh, his original move was to keep Xi/China close enough to be able to deflect American pressure on his his domestic policies. That move has now gone turtle.

This calculation will not go well with jingos - but we jingos aren't numerous enough to vote anyone into or out of power. We're a strategic minority. Most people do not come to Bharat Rakshak to form their opinion. They hear it on media - which falls into line.

China does not get to decide when to cool down on the LAC but Modi does. Chinese cannot pullback without an Indian pullback and a tacit agreement on the new status quo.

As written before, while Modi will not have a political problem domestically, any compromise on the LAC will impact his international image that he has so consciously cultivated for the past 6+ years as one of the bulwark against China's expansion. The IR watchers is not so forgiving as the domestic voters or jingos.

Modi wanted to play US vs China, misread China and got caught in a bind. He probably will come under pressure from the liberal brigade if Biden gets elected. That will put India/Modi in a squeeze but India has faced worse earlier.

Modi does not have to worry about the jingos but he should worry about the coming squeeze from China/US and his international agenda getting crushed. They way out is to get rid of pressure on one side by having it out with China before Feb 2021 by the time the next US admin takes charge.

[VikramS]

I wouldn't read too much into what the progressive (sic) Democrats are doing. There is a rising undercurrent against their actions and the reaction to them is starting to emerge. More importantly most of the vocal Democrats are junior members trying to curry favors and build up their profile.

The concern I have is that there is a lot of anti-Indic discussion which is now getting more headlines. For example, caste based issues are being bought up and there is a concerted effort to paint India in a bad light. These groups are very active and well funded.

The Chinese influence within the US runs very strong and when it comes to India they have found allies among the Left, the Islamists and even the Evangelicals. NYTimes reportedly published about 200 articles which were sponsored by the CCP over the past decade.

While it is unclear what kind of policy Biden will adopt, the US-China cold war is real. Simmering tensions have boiled over due to COVID and the CCP's aggression during this period.

[shyamd]

IA has issued stern warning to political estab

1) This needs political/diplomatic solution. i.e. Phone call to Xi
2) If green light is not provided, it is highly likely we will lose some more territory during winters (some locations are favourable to PLA)

[schinnas]

There is no international squeeze on India nor there will be one in the next few years.

[Lisa]

https://twitter.com/league_of_india/sta ... 9105161217

A very good video but, I think, that they have forgotten one major detail. Like Adolf Hitler, Eleven has had the armed forces swear an oath to him in person rather than his office.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article ... xi-jinping

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... xi-jinping

"The world's largest armed forces should be "absolutely loyal, honest and reliable to Xi", said a new guideline issued by the Central Military Commission and reported by state news agency Xinhua late Sunday (Nov 5)."

IMHO, this is nether a small or minor matter and I remain surprised of how little attention this matter received. Imagine the same in India and a similar silence of the MSM.

Added later

"I swear to the leader, Adolf Hitler, as the supreme commander of the German armed forces, loyalty, and bravery."

[RaviB]

I think India is unlikely to face any significant international squeeze for acting against China. After the 1998 nuclear tests we faced the full force of international fury, including suspension of credit lines and foreign aid, sanctions, trade restrictions and what not for the next 3 years. According to estimates, the financial impact of just the first year of international sanctions was supposed to be 20 billion $ (around 2 billion $ according to Indian government). China condemned us to high heaven obviously. We were way weaker economically, militarily and diplomatically, yet we were willing to bear the costs. Today nobody can really question the logic of paying the economic costs back then for lasting strategic gains.

That's how we need to approach China right now. Know that in the short term the costs will be quite heavy but the strategic gains will include peace with China for the next 10-15 years and diplomatic gains in terms of reputation. The worst case scenario is tactical losses, minor financial costs with slight reputational gains.

[darshan]

IMHO, this is nether a small or minor matter and I remain surprised of how little attention this matter received. Imagine the same in India and a similar silence of the MSM.

Should you really be surprised?

[Prem Kumar]

A border skirmish with China to evict them, with a parallel effort by the U.S to sabre-rattle in the SCS/Taiwan will not only help us but also help in Trump's re-election.

Disavowing One-China policy and recognizing Taiwan's independence is something that the U.S will get behind.

[SSridhar]

. . . any compromise on the LAC will impact his international image that he has so consciously cultivated for the past 6+ years as one of the bulwark against China's expansion. The IR watchers is not so forgiving as the domestic voters or jingos.

Modi wanted to play US vs China, misread China and got caught in a bind. He probably will come under pressure from the liberal brigade if Biden gets elected. That will put India/Modi in a squeeze but India has faced worse earlier.

Modi does not have to worry about the jingos but he should worry about the coming squeeze from China/US and his international agenda getting crushed.

What do you mean by 'consciously cultivated international image of Modi' ? Also, explain how Modi played US against China and got caught in between? What squeeze?

[YashG]

While India and Indian Americans need to learn to win the narrative in the west, don't think too much into it. Whether Dems or Republicans, the cold war with China is a reality going forward as Xi has revealed his pangs prematurely. Going forward, with the US public mood fully against China, no US President will want to have the legacy as the one who submitted meekly to China. US will need India more than the other way but it will be part transactional and part geo strategic than true marriage of hearts regardless of who comes to power.

Correct!

This is just election time and grandstanding and virtue signalling are to be expected from ignorant US congressmen and women who are out to get votes. US congressional panels use prevailing public / media sentiments to grandstand especially if there is no consequence to their grandstanding. US muslims have a huge lobby and are painting a negative portrayal on Kashmir. US Hindus and Indian American community and Indian embassy have failed to create a lobby or portray the J&K reality and reality of CAA properly.

Indian Americans are the highest family income group among any ethnic groups, even American whites - Indian Americans are right now the most powerful demographic group. They are everywhere. Including the fact that there were even presidential candidates of Indian origin people from both parties. Indian American lobby is too strong - the trump/modi show in America was a case in point - there is nothing that muslim lobbies can muster that comes close.

Btw plenty of Indian Americans are muslims too. But I'm not here to make a case on secularism - not my thing- instead only of power equations.

Liberal democrat agenda is not transient. It will keep coming back, more so under Biden. There will always a pushback -You can manage it only by choosing what you do strategically and then steadfastly defending them. Modi will be attacked on both 370 & CAA. He would have been smarter by choosing one of these & defend that resolutely. Only Kashmir is non-negotiable.

[eklavya]

^^^^
Any foreign country attacking India on CAA is welcome to offer refuge to the “excluded categories”.

[rohitvats]

For OSINT gurus, this is in near Gogra/Hot Springs area, from Aug 2017 (as per Zoom earth). Looks like a significant PLA deployment/exercise or building staging areas fro future ops. https://zoom.earth/#view=34.350799,79.1 ... ayers=esri

Chinese infrastructure development has a certain pattern.

They've focused first on those sectors where distance from LAC to road G219 is smallest.

So, Demchok has the best infra followed by the sub-sector opposite our Gogra/Hot Springs post. From Kongka La pass to Lanak La and then onto G219 is a metaled road. Along with some nodes.

It also means that the Chinese can bring troops quickly upfront to these sectors from their rear bases.

Gogra/Hot-Springs or Kongka La sector is very critical for both; success by either party in this sector has the potential to unravel opposition defenses over a large area.

Interestingly, the DBO sector has the least developed infrastructure on the Chinese side.

[rohitvats]

<SNIP>



<SNIP>

Posting some corrections for reference:

(1) First and foremost, Ajai Shukla had come out with two maps. First one he posted on his Twitter TL and second one he used in his article. The first one is grossly incorrect in terms of marking of some key locations. Second one is much better and accurate. I think you've marked the PP on the map basis the first map from his TL.

(2) Quick corrections on the placement of PP as per his second map:

- PP 17A is at Gogra which is opposite Kongka La
- PP 17 is behind Gogra and to west of the Chang Chenmo river (Chang Chenmo and Kugrang rivers meet opposite this point)
- PP 15 is on the north-west extremity of Kugrang river and not on the LAC on the nullah which you've termed as Changlung nallah.

(3) If you go by old topographical maps, the nallah which flows from PP15 to PP16 (of YOUR map) is NOT the Changlung nallah.

(4) Topographical maps depict the nallah coming along the PP17A (of YOUR map); so the alignment of this nallah, starting from PP17A (of YOUR map) would be green-->cyan-->orange-->cyan.

(5) However, my research shows that when IA patrols from 1/8 Gorkha Rifles first went about looking for a route to reach the upper reaches of Galwan river, they went along the this second nameless nullah. The place where PP16 is marked on your map (same as AS's map) was the nullah junction.

(6) The situation along the alignment of this 'X' nullah (where you've drawn a cyan road from PP15 to PP16) is not exactly this; while GE shows a road coming from the Chinese side inside LAC on Indian side, it seems the Chinese intrusion was/is no more than few meters here.

(7) Chinese claim opposite PP17A (of YOUR map) - Actually, the alignment shown on GE is the original and correct alignment. To depict NEW Chinese claim, you'll have to inverse the yellow triangle on Indian side of this red colored LAC. So, the red colored LAC will have a dip in this area as per new Chinese claim. And this will bring them close to Kugrang river.

Which is a problem because from here, they can turn south and attack Indian positions in Gogra from rear and also cut-off the entire area to north along the Kugrang river.

(8) Second yellow line - Again, the red colored LAC depicts the correct alignment of the Chinese claim line. There is no difference in perception in LAC in this sector (as far as I know).

[Gyan]

In our Dhoti Shivering in regard to Pakistan, we have forgotten that India has maneuvered into Saudi, UAE Camp by cooling off with Iran. Saudis & Israelis have lot of influence even in Biden Camp.

If Narsimhan Rao acted with Resilience in 1991-96 against Clintons then even Modi will manage with Biden.

Point is that only next 3 months with China are important, thereafter it will be status quo whether its Trump or Biden.

[ramana]

Point is that only next 3 months with China are important, thereafter it will be status quo whether its Trump or Biden.

Even Xi Knows that.

After that, it doesn't matter who comes to WH.

[ramana]

IA has issued stern warning to political estab

1) This needs political/diplomatic solution. i.e. Phone call to Xi
2) If green light is not provided, it is highly likely we will lose some more territory during winters (some locations are favourable to PLA)

Boss don't go into Coupta mode.
IA or any service won't give any warning stern or otherwise to govt.
It's not done.

As for the phone call to Xi, he wants that.
It undercuts our own local commanders.
Right after June 15, Wang Yi wanted to talk to NSA.

Didn't happen as its a military matter.

In old days would have given an instant ban. but am in mellow mood for RM Bhoomi puja week.

[ramana]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/the-pla-aggressors-china-s-eight-top-commanders-who-led-ladakh-adventure/story-qbin0tWtJ0wgfQkal0o5cO.html

The PLA Aggressors: China’s eight top commanders who led Ladakh adventure
The Hindustan Times has put together details of Chinese military commanders involved in the on-going Ladakh stand-off. Many are CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping’s men.

Hindustan Times which cant put together a profile of AAP guys leading Delhi riots is putting together a profile of 8 Chinese PLA commanders!

[ramana]

I'm specifically referring to our own principle for disengagement mentioned above:



... By simple mathematics, mutual and equal stepping back puts us in a more disadvantageous position considering the Chinese are the transgressing party. Status quo ante requires an UNequal step back.

My question is, why are we shooting ourselves in the foot with this equal step back nonsense even before we give the Chinese a chance to do that?

The original idea was to disengage, deescalate and de-induct or whatever other de..s we wanted. My take is the Chinese are laughing their way out of these chai biscuit sessions. If we know that then the powers at various levels know it. They are not saying it publicly. I think they have a plan, I don't think it is just plain stalemate. But you are not going to know the plan from the Media or even OSINT. We can probably speculate. But the situation is quite complex and it is hard to do even that.

Put yourself in CPC shoes. If things go kinetic before November elections, DT will sneak into Indo-China Sea and sink a few Chinese junks and get landslide victory.
So Xi is biding his time till after the Nov election date.

So its not all that cut and dry.
And we should stop lungi/dhoti/ favorite underwear shivering for thats a disservice to our Military and Police forces.
I would say bring it on for NaMo will end this unreasonable fear of Chinese military prowess.
This fear has constrained India since 1962 despite the slaps on 1967, 1971 and 1986.

Just as Balakot has finisnhed of PAk Nulcear terrorism, Ladakh will end Chinese salami nibbling.

To atone for this post, I givew you some homework.
So from 2004 - 2019 plot a graph or tabulate India-China trade deficit.

[schinnas]

All the more reason for India to go kinetic in Sept / Oct of Cheen don't go back to old status quo as of April 2020. Trump cannnot allow his strategic partner to lose against China a month before US elections. Post Nov, winter will make things difficult and new status quo will continue.

Xi can avoid embarassment by withdrawing unconditionally.

[Guddu]

Biden win is no longer a mere wet dream. Its looking more and more a mathematical certainty. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/ Some analysis on why Biden numbers are not fragile like Hillary's in 2016. The problem is US public aint seeing trump as a wartime president..

I disagree, have to wait and see. Biden is demented, no chance of a win. 538 site was completely wrong the last time and predicted a massive Hillary win.

[YashG]

I disagree, have to wait and see. Biden is demented, no chance of a win. 538 site was completely wrong the last time and predicted a massive Hillary win.

Yes 538 cud be wrong. We can wait and see. But we have to prepare for whatever happens.

[YashG]

All the more reason for India to go kinetic in Sept / Oct of Cheen don't go back to old status quo as of April 2020.

Xi can avoid embarassment by withdrawing unconditionally.

Well going Kinetic is fabulous!

[M_Joshi]

Just for reference these are the OSINT images for this area (from last couple of months):-
June 22: https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 0774615041
June 23: https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 3713430528
July 13: https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 7819808773

These locations pertains to Hot-Springs and Kongka La...
For the record, all Chinese camps shown in these images are well inside Chinese side of Google Earth LAC. Even if we consider Indian claim LAC marked in those Chinese links shared by RaviB, these camps are on Chinese side only...

True..



https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 60/photo/1

Certain Indian media reports suggest areas around the “Y-Junction” & Depsang have recently come under Chinese control, geospatial research however proves Chinese infrastructure has been built in the area since the early 2000s.

[pankajs]

. . . any compromise on the LAC will impact his international image that he has so consciously cultivated for the past 6+ years as one of the bulwark against China's expansion. The IR watchers is not so forgiving as the domestic voters or jingos.

Modi wanted to play US vs China, misread China and got caught in a bind. He probably will come under pressure from the liberal brigade if Biden gets elected. That will put India/Modi in a squeeze but India has faced worse earlier.

Modi does not have to worry about the jingos but he should worry about the coming squeeze from China/US and his international agenda getting crushed.

What do you mean by 'consciously cultivated international image of Modi' ? Also, explain how Modi played US against China and got caught in between? What squeeze?

1. "consciously cultivated international image" as "one of the bulwark against China's expansion"

2. Multi-aligned vs non-aligned meaning using the US card to get a better deal with China and vice versa. Nothing wrong in that.

2a. My exact phrase was "misread China and got caught in a bind" not "caught in between". Modi's charm offensive failed and he has come face to face with the exact issues that he was trying to avoid much earlier than he expected because he misread Xi/China.

3. "Probably" is the key word. If Biden gets elected and IIRC Biden has already declared that he will be a "single-term" president, he will already be lameduck by the time he is sworn in. His likely VP pick in all probability will be a dyed-in-wool liberal who will call the shot form day one and work to get re-elected as president in 2024.

The US liberals are big into Kashmir/CAA/Victimhood of peacefools/Atrocities literature with the help of Indian "liberals". Any ways our liberals have already given up pressuring Modi from inside and are now fully into getting pressure from outside. They will now have the US megaphone to carry out their campaign from the US using the Democratic party victory.

Nothing is certain including the victory of Biden BUT if he wins and the liberals take over as I suspect, the Indian "Liberals" will use the opportunity to press Modi/India on their favorite agenda. IFF that happens then Modi will be squeezed between China on the border and US interference in out domestic affairs on the other side.

India has faced worse situations before when it was much weaker but IFF the above scenario where to pass, it will be an unnecessary distraction. Nothing much we can do except sort out the Chinese on the border to have a bit more freedom of maneuver.

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/sneheshphilip/statu ... 4420476930

Snehesh Alex Philip @sneheshphilip

So what is happening in #Depsang?

Tensions at Depsang began months before new stand off started along LAC in May

In 2013, PLA troops never went back completely across the Indian perception of AC

They stayed behind the limit of patrolling points

The Chinese have been blocking India’s patrol from bottleneck area to PP 11, PP12, PP12 A and PP 13.

This has been happening from before the current tensions at LAC

Depsang is similar to the one that prevailed at the northern bank of the Pangong Tso before intrusion this May

The Chinese have blocked us from patrolling but haven't YET "transgressed" with temporary or permanent structure like they have done at Pangang Tso.

Also, after 2013 they did not move back fully but have claimed/occupied right up to the patrolling points when the Indian version of LAC extends further beyond the patrolling points.

[k prasad]

The Chinese have blocked us from patrolling but haven't YET "transgressed" with temporary or permanent structure like they have done at Pangang Tso.

Also, after 2013 they did not move back fully but have claimed/occupied right up to the patrolling points when the Indian version of LAC extends further beyond the patrolling points.

If our perception of the LAC extends beyond the patrol points, and the Chinese are blocking us from patrolling, then, as far we are concerned, that's a transgression. Period.

Temporary or permanent structures goes beyond transgression... That becomes occupation.

Why are we softening our language for the enemy's benefit? That's half the battle lost even before it begins.

[suryag]

RM ji is to address a press conference @ 10 AM IST. The announcement for the Press conference was made just now on republic tv. Not sure what it is going to be. Hope all senior members of the cabinet are safe from Covid

[YashG]

Our perception line is the line we have grown seeing as Ind-Chn border in our textbooks all along. Perception line is the border.

[YashG]

RM ji is to address a press conference @ 10 AM IST. The announcement for the Press conference was made just now on republic tv. Not sure what it is going to be.

I hope he will announce we are declaring weapons production in war mode - buying 83 LCAs, no more holidays for those in armed forces production. Some inefficient OFBs are being kept in quality watch control, others will be corporatised.

[Cyrano]

If you look that the recent updated political map of Pak released by Dimkhan's govt, it claims large parts of J&K and Ladakh as its own territory, excepting Aksai Chin which China already controls. This could very well be due to a realisation by Pak that post abrogation of Art 370, it has no chance of gaining anything on J&K, and statements from India's leaders saying Gilgit & Baltistan is next, would have totally rattled the Pakis. So why not outsource the problem by "soft ceding" the entire territory to China as part of CPEC agreement and let China defend it ?!

There is a lot of opacity around the CPEC agreement Pak has signed with China, and I suspect in this agreement, Pak has given extensive rights to China not only on Gilgit, Baltisan & POK, but also on Indian J&K and Ladakh which it claims, and has accepted Aksai Chin (which is an integral part of J&K acceded by Raja Hari Singh to India) occupation by China.

I think this explains Pak's unusual silence since the standoff with China has begun.

China's lizard brain is now convinced that it has obtained certain degree of rights on all these areas and they are only protecting their "rights" and the current mobilisation is just a routine matter of trying to secure those "rights".

If this is indeed the matter, then India backing off or making ANY concession whatsoever will only reinforce China's belief that it can and must try to wrestle control of all of this territory.

China knows India will defend J&K with everything it has, and after initially greedily biting into the Paki offer, they must have realised that Pak has in fact palmed off a poison apple to it. China thinks it has the might to deal with it, but has also realised that it will take time and effort, and might be worth it in the long run. However, to not stake the progress of OBOR on wresting J&K from India, a derisking agreement was made with Iran.

Resolving this current standoff has a lot more at stake for India than simply being able to push Chinese troops back on this patrolling point or that. Entire J&K is at stake and this problem will not go away by getting China to simply pull back to status quo ante.

A comprehensive military defeat of China & Pak rendering their CPEC agreement caduc is the only lasting solution for India.