India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

The Military Issues & History Forum is a venue to discuss issues relating to the military aspects of the Indian Armed Forces, whether the past, present or future. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1736
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby schinnas » 09 Aug 2020 15:46

Baluchi brothers are determined to stop CPEC which attempts to colonise and plunder Balochistan's natural resources. India needs to just defeat Cheen. Pakis have been defeated so many times already. Once their sponsor is beaten up, Pakis will shut up themselves.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1553
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Gyan » 09 Aug 2020 16:05

We need Baloch, Sindh brothers to join hands. Also I don't mind Shia Freedom fighters of POK to be more successful

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14553
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 09 Aug 2020 16:53

k prasad wrote:
pankajs wrote:The Chinese have blocked us from patrolling but haven't YET "transgressed" with temporary or permanent structure like they have done at Pangang Tso.

Also, after 2013 they did not move back fully but have claimed/occupied right up to the patrolling points when the Indian version of LAC extends further beyond the patrolling points.


If our perception of the LAC extends beyond the patrol points, and the Chinese are blocking us from patrolling, then, as far we are concerned, that's a transgression. Period.

Temporary or permanent structures goes beyond transgression... That becomes occupation.

Why are we softening our language for the enemy's benefit? That's half the battle lost even before it begins.
Exactly what our "establishment" has sought to avoid talking about.

From the time the GOI/its statements have peddled the line "differing perceptions" they made the mistake of trying to underplay the severity of the crisis and it continues to date. This language of underplaying the seriousness is where our babus and establishment has gifted our GOI. While I am not in favor of "fighting talk" we could have done much better than "differing perceptions" speak.

One reason why I am happy that the Chinese have, to put it bluntly, punched Modi in the face. I just wish they had done this a couple of years back.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14553
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 09 Aug 2020 17:32

amar_p wrote:China's lizard brain is now convinced that it has obtained certain degree of rights on all these areas and they are only protecting their "rights" and the current mobilisation is just a routine matter of trying to secure those "rights".

If this is indeed the matter, then India backing off or making ANY concession whatsoever will only reinforce China's belief that it can and must try to wrestle control of all of this territory.
This is a misreading of the Chinese way of doing stuff ... Chinese, in line with the missionary and the umma way of thinking, have right over the whole earth!

The Chinese recently have claimed half of Tajikistan AFTER having settled their border dispute a few decades back. Gajab!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2% ... tan_border
In 2011, Tajikistan ratified a 1999 deal (and a 2002 supplementary agreement) to cede 200 km2 (77 sq mi) and 1,122 km2 (433 sq mi) respectively[7] of land in the Pamir Mountains to the People's Republic of China, ending a 130-year dispute. In the treaty, China also relinquished claims to over 28,000 km2 (11,000 sq mi) of Tajikistani territory.[8][9][7] The Republic of China had historically made similar claims in the area.[10][better source needed] Tajik attitudes toward the boundary treaty varied significantly among different interest groups, ranging from overt opposition to overt support.[11]

In July 2020, repeated publication of an article by Cho Yao Lu[who?] in Chinese domestic media which suggested Tajikistan should give China more land was met with sharp disapproval in Tajikistan and Russia.[12][13][14][15][16]


amar_p wrote:China knows India will defend J&K with everything it has, and after initially greedily biting into the Paki offer, they must have realised that Pak has in fact palmed off a poison apple to it. China thinks it has the might to deal with it, but has also realised that it will take time and effort, and might be worth it in the long run. However, to not stake the progress of OBOR on wresting J&K from India, a derisking agreement was made with Iran.

Resolving this current standoff has a lot more at stake for India than simply being able to push Chinese troops back on this patrolling point or that. Entire J&K is at stake and this problem will not go away by getting China to simply pull back to status quo ante.

A comprehensive military defeat of China & Pak rendering their CPEC agreement caduc is the only lasting solution for India.

1. OBOR does not rest of J&K. OBOR is much more than CPEC, CPEC rests entirely in PoJK. Therefore Iran deal is not about OBOR but rather about getting a foot on a strategic piece of real-estate that is Iran as it sits at the neck of the Persian gulf. Plus the overland oil pipeline from Iran, if it fructify, will essentially be to derisk sea driven oil trade that goes via Malacca strait.

2. The threat to Indian border areas not only in Ladakh but also along Himachal, Uttrakhand, Sikkim and Aruanchal pradesh is not going to vanish overnight nor it the malignant influence of the Chinese in our neighborhood or in the IOR region.

A defeat of the Chinese/Baki axis leading to a collapse of the CEPC is also not going to stop the Chinese. Only a comprehensive weakening of the Chinese from the inside OR the breakup of China is finally going to stop it. Now that is something that India, on its own, cannot achieve.

Therefore,
a. In the short-term, we aim to restore the status quo at the LAC back. A successful pushback @ the LCA will cause a loss of face to the Chinese. Will help put some steel in the backs of its other neighbors. Will increase likelihood of their co-operating/co-ordinating with India in future. Will perhaps also lead to some clipping of wings in China. Perhaps also to a few years of peace at the LAC.

b. In the medium-term, aim to get back GB. Will cripple the China/Baki axis. Will allow us direct access to Afghanistan & CA. Will cripple Bakistan perhaps leading to its breakup. Will enhance the prestige of India in the neighborhood and beyond. Make our other neighbors wary of trying to plot against India and play India vs China.

c. In the long-term, aim to grow and dominate our neighborhood and IOR. Push China out of our neighborhood and IOR. Able to mount a sustained "extended" campaigns in the Persian gulf, Antarctic ocean and Near Pacific ocean including Champa sea (SSC).

d. Hope China sorts China out while India works on India's growth.

rpartha
BRFite
Posts: 108
Joined: 24 Sep 2016 00:04

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rpartha » 09 Aug 2020 19:03

Watching Avrodh based on Shiv Aroor in Sony.. there will be a scene where a reporter will be set up by leaking a fake news that there is a difference between PM and NSA...now our beloved Shook is saying the same that NSA and CDS has messed up... any relation? :) :) I am putting it here in this theead as the news is relevant to border tensions...

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1553
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Gyan » 09 Aug 2020 20:34

How to Come Across as Sissy in front of Whole world? Learn from our MEA.

https://m.hindustantimes.com/india-news ... ssion=true

Guddu
BRFite
Posts: 978
Joined: 01 Dec 2008 06:22

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Guddu » 09 Aug 2020 20:42

I read Shooklaw's blog post on his site, sure reads a lot like a movie script. This statement "Hope of accountability lies only in reports that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has quietly made his displeasure clear at the handling of matters by National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval and Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Bipin Rawat", certainly looks fake. His post actually gives me hope, because I have a hard time relating to Shooklaw's flights of fantasy.

Guddu
BRFite
Posts: 978
Joined: 01 Dec 2008 06:22

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Guddu » 09 Aug 2020 20:45

Gyan wrote:How to Come Across as Sissy in front of Whole world? Learn from our MEA.

https://m.hindustantimes.com/india-news ... ssion=true


Agree...even diplomats need to show spine. Looks like India is desperate to make peace.

amar_p
BRFite
Posts: 505
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 09 Aug 2020 21:12

I saw the online discussion in which EAM Jaishankar made those remarks, and I don't agree with the comments above. Being jingoistic is fine on BRF. The EAM was speaking as a diplomat. India is playing a good cop - bad cop routine. We need to chill.

amar_p
BRFite
Posts: 505
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 09 Aug 2020 21:45

pankajs, India is no Tajikistan. China has its greedy ambitions, but they can't go about it in the same way with every neighbour.

The point I'm making is collusion between Pakis and Chinese regarding Indian territory of J&K. The Pakis have a compulsive need for it and the Chinese have an obsessive greed for it. Their CPEC agreement is that collusion.

The whole OBOR drama is nothing but getting control on strategic pieces of real-estate everywhere. Does anyone think inclusive development of impoverished nations is CCP's goal with OBOR ?

On the way forward, your a b c d steps are not making sense. China is playing this like a game of GO. Place a stone here, place a stone there with the aim of gobbling an area around it. Their main objective will be to grab Ladhak sector to grab control of the rest of J&K. Other areas can be distractions/bargaining chips/bonus gains if India defends them any less.

I'm willing to bet they won't de-escalate in Ladakh any time soon, nor will they go aggressive until US elections are over and the attitude of the next dispensation - be it DT 2nd term or Biden - becomes clear. They hope to tire India out, wait for a moment when our friends are distracted, and make a move. If China moves first in the coming months, it won't just be for salami slicing, and will also force Pak to get active. On the international stage they will claim that J&K is a historically disputed territory.

If India moves first and with great force to evict the intruders/transgressors, it can achieve a decisive outcome, and redraw many borders at once.

abhik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3059
Joined: 02 Feb 2009 17:42

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 09 Aug 2020 22:34

Guddu wrote:I read Shooklaw's blog post on his site, sure reads a lot like a movie script. This statement "Hope of accountability lies only in reports that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has quietly made his displeasure clear at the handling of matters by National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval and Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Bipin Rawat", certainly looks fake. His post actually gives me hope, because I have a hard time relating to Shooklaw's flights of fantasy.

I think there might be some element of truth in this. In my view (FWIW) Modi was never too interested in military conflict with either Pak or China. He has relied on Doval to guide and do much of the legwork on national security, which has worked out mostly fine for internal security. But at a time when the nation is already in a crisis due to the pandemic, he suddenly finds himself in situation where he is left holding a bag of turd with no easy way of disposing it. there was failure in the national security establishment in A) Anticipating this situation B ) Mitigating it once the Chinese set the ball rolling. After getting blindsided like this, I would expect (and hope) some sort of manthan to happen (like reviewing the role of China study group etc.), what form this might take time will tell.

YashG
BRFite
Posts: 184
Joined: 22 Apr 2017 00:10

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby YashG » 10 Aug 2020 00:25

abhik wrote:I think there might be some element of truth in this. In my view (FWIW) Modi was never too interested in military conflict with either Pak or China. He has relied on Doval to guide and do much of the legwork on national security, which has worked out mostly fine for internal security. But at a time when the nation is already in a crisis due to the pandemic, he suddenly finds himself in situation where he is left holding a bag of turd with no easy way of disposing it. there was failure in the national security establishment in A) Anticipating this situation B ) Mitigating it once the Chinese set the ball rolling. After getting blindsided like this, I would expect (and hope) some sort of manthan to happen (like reviewing the role of China study group etc.), what form this might take time will tell.


Ur suggesting that Modi ended up being fooled by Doval's incompetence ?

A Sharma
BRFite
Posts: 1152
Joined: 20 May 2003 11:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby A Sharma » 10 Aug 2020 00:48

IAF night flies Chinook over DBO as PLA ramps up troops in occupied Aksai Chin

The Indian Air Force’s rapid deployment Chinook helicopters have flown in the night over 16,000 feet Daulet Beg Oldi, Indian Army’s last outpost near Karakoram Pass, after the deployment and road building activity of China’s People’s Liberation Army deployment increased in the area across the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

According to authoritative sources, the divisional commander level meeting at Teinweindien (TWD) post in occupied Aksai Chin was to lower the temperatures in the DBO sector with the Indian Army demanding that patrolling in Depsang Plains should be allowed unhindered. The DBO dialogue is separate from the military commanders on-going dialogue on Chushul-Moldo area with the specific task of disengagement and de-escalation of troops on the four friction points.

The decision to fly Chinook over DBO advance landing ground during night time was taken to test the Indian Army’s capability of rapid insertion of special forces and infantry combat vehicles in case the situation deteriorates in the sub-sector north (SSN) area. “ While Apache attack helicopters have been patrolling Chushul area, the US made Chinook flew over DBO to test its night fighting capabilities…..we have already deployed T-90 tanks and artillery guns in the area,” said a senior commander. The US built Chinook has a proven record of night flying in Afghan mountainous terrain and is used for rapid military retaliation by the special airborne forces. The twin rotor platform has two heavy calibre machine guns deployed at the front and back of the chopper to suppress ground fire.

While the Chinese have raised objections to the deployment of tanks and guns at DBO, the Indian Army have pointed to recent accretion of PLA troops in the area along with air activity across the SSN. Both sides are matching each other’s deployment in the area even as the PLA is indulging in fast paced construction of roads in the area for rapid deployment. The interesting part is that while China raises objections to India building border infrastructure, there is no slowing down of the same all along the LAC---from occupied Aksai Chin to Kibuthoo in Arunachal Pradesh.


At the divisional commander level meeting on Saturday, India has also raised the issue that both sides should be allowed to do unhindered patrolling of their respective claim lines in the area including the Depsang Bulge, south of DBO. This was a clear indication of the Indian intent that it is not going to back down from patrolling rights at the Bulge or at any other place on the LAC.

amar_p
BRFite
Posts: 505
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby amar_p » 10 Aug 2020 00:52

I think Modi's hand of friendship to Xi was genuine. Chinese aggression in Ladhak was a surprise for Modi, MEA, NSA everyone, more due to its timing - coming after Dokhlam and right in the middle of the Covid pandemic, than the fact that the Chinese would do it.

The big question is why our military and civil intelligence did not detect and forewarn the Govt despite having eyes in the ground and in the sky ? There could have been intelligence passed on by Unkil and others which was ignored ? Or despite getting these intelligence reports the PMO was not appraised correctly or accurately?

Something somewhere did not work as it should and its conceivable that Modi is pissed off about it.

Modi is a dharmic thinker, will exhaust all other options before resorting to offensive-defence.

And our enemies know it.

Sanju
BRFite
Posts: 1196
Joined: 14 Aug 2005 01:00
Location: North of 49

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sanju » 10 Aug 2020 02:13

I am quite sceptical of the idea that our top folks got fooled.

The whole spirit of Wuhan-Mamalapuram was our folks buying time. If we at BRF knew that it was matter of "When" rather than an "If" of a border war with China, then our folks surely would have been aware too. Knowing the current dispensation, they have a timeline, a sequence and set of goals.
Article 370 abrogation, Ram Mandir, CAA... all these followed in quick succession.

We make our asssumptions based on what is available in the open source domain. Probably just the tip of the iceberg. I am willing to believe that GOI was hoping for more time, but the chances of that diminished with Doklam.

Geopolitcally, the whole world will be watching the US elections in the coming months. The timing seems to coincide with the timing of the Cuban Missile crisis, when the Chinese choose to attack us in '62. Weather wise it is the same time.

In the run up to the US presidential elections, it seems that the US Pres has painted a large bulls eye on the Chinese and using Trade and the Chinese Virus Pandemic to put pressure on the Chinese. In the coming months the pressure is only going to increase. Who is going to blink first?

If the Chinese don't back down at the LAC, India will go kinetic. The longer the Chinese stay the greater chance of us going kinetic.

Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10608
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Vayutuvan » 10 Aug 2020 06:13

And our enemies know it.


May be it is time to change it. Once in a while changing the strategy would work wonders, especially in a two-player game (which is what it is for now). China obviously wants to introduce more players - Paxistan and Nepal - into the mix where as we want to separate them out into three two-player games which are mildly linked.

Guddu
BRFite
Posts: 978
Joined: 01 Dec 2008 06:22

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Guddu » 10 Aug 2020 07:17

amar_p wrote:I think Modi's hand of friendship to Xi was genuine. Chinese aggression in Ladhak was a surprise for Modi, MEA, NSA everyone, more due to its timing - coming after Dokhlam and right in the middle of the Covid pandemic, than the fact that the Chinese would do it.

Modi is a dharmic thinker, will exhaust all other options before resorting to offensive-defence.
And our enemies know it.


I agree with Modi being a dharmic thinker. I listened to Modi's speech at Ayodhya, while it was primarily a Ram Rajya oriented speech in pure hindi, a BRFite could draw other lessons too. I have full faith in Modi. India is biding its time, getting rid of COVID, getting war preparations ready. We are ready to wait the winter out, unless China attacks first. Modi has the power to give one speech and rouse the nation against China and I am not sure our godless enemies know it.

LakshmanPST
BRFite
Posts: 259
Joined: 05 Apr 2019 18:23

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby LakshmanPST » 10 Aug 2020 14:00

rohitvats wrote:Posting some corrections for reference:


Sir thanks for your corrections...

(1) First and foremost, Ajai Shukla had come out with two maps. First one he posted on his Twitter TL and second one he used in his article. The first one is grossly incorrect in terms of marking of some key locations. Second one is much better and accurate. I think you've marked the PP on the map basis the first map from his TL.

(2) Quick corrections on the placement of PP as per his second map:

- PP 17A is at Gogra which is opposite Kongka La
- PP 17 is behind Gogra and to west of the Chang Chenmo river (Chang Chenmo and Kugrang rivers meet opposite this point)
- PP 15 is on the north-west extremity of Kugrang river and not on the LAC on the nullah which you've termed as Changlung nallah.


Yes, I mostly followed his first sketch map... Also some newspaper articles...
There is no clear information about PPs in public domain... So, PPs were only assumptions from my side...

(3) If you go by old topographical maps, the nallah which flows from PP15 to PP16 (of YOUR map) is NOT the Changlung nallah.

(4) Topographical maps depict the nallah coming along the PP17A (of YOUR map); so the alignment of this nallah, starting from PP17A (of YOUR map) would be green-->cyan-->orange-->cyan.

(5) However, my research shows that when IA patrols from 1/8 Gorkha Rifles first went about looking for a route to reach the upper reaches of Galwan river, they went along the this second nameless nullah. The place where PP16 is marked on your map (same as AS's map) was the nullah junction.


I merely followed the Chinese road coming from Galwan-Changlung confluence... Hence, I assumed that the entire Nala stretch parallel to the road is the Changlung Nala...
So, Changlung Nala took a sharp turn few km before LAC... After this turn, the road is laid along the X-Nala which ended up 18km inside Indian side of GE-LAC...

(6) The situation along the alignment of this 'X' nullah (where you've drawn a cyan road from PP15 to PP16) is not exactly this; while GE shows a road coming from the Chinese side inside LAC on Indian side, it seems the Chinese intrusion was/is no more than few meters here.


Sir, I didn't understand the sentence, "Chinese intrusion was/is no more than few meters here"...
Can you explain more on this...? You're saying there is no fresh intrusion here or there is no instrusion at all...?

Coz. what I see here is road laid 18km on Indian side of GE LAC... This road is connected to the road on Chinese side and not connected to any road from Indian side, so I assumed it to be Chinese road...
I can understand that this is not a new intrution and the road has been there for many years now...

(7) Chinese claim opposite PP17A (of YOUR map) - Actually, the alignment shown on GE is the original and correct alignment. To depict NEW Chinese claim, you'll have to inverse the yellow triangle on Indian side of this red colored LAC. So, the red colored LAC will have a dip in this area as per new Chinese claim. And this will bring them close to Kugrang river.

Which is a problem because from here, they can turn south and attack Indian positions in Gogra from rear and also cut-off the entire area to north along the Kugrang river.

(8) Second yellow line - Again, the red colored LAC depicts the correct alignment of the Chinese claim line. There is no difference in perception in LAC in this sector (as far as I know).


These yellow lines are marked based on the maps from the links posted here--->
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7810&start=6680#p2452144

It is some analysis done by some Chinese guy...

LakshmanPST
BRFite
Posts: 259
Joined: 05 Apr 2019 18:23

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby LakshmanPST » 10 Aug 2020 14:01

Overall, there is too much confusion about LAC... Four things are possibly & simultaneously happening at LAC now--->

1) China physically occupying new areas on Indian side of LAC (till now this is not confirmed in any sector in any media)
2) China already had physical control on lot of areas where Indian troops used to patrol. China denied permission to Indian patrols, amassed troops & building new infrastructure in these areas (happening in Pangong Tso and possibly Bottleneck area)
3) China making new claims on Indian side of LAC, though not physically occupying them (happened in Galwan)
4) China already has physical control on certain areas of Indian side of LAC, but didn't amass troops or change staus quo at these locations (which I hopefully assume is the situation at X-Nala)...

But problem is, Shukla types are reporting even 2, 3 and 4 as 1...

RaviB
BRFite
Posts: 197
Joined: 09 Jun 2020 14:32

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 10 Aug 2020 15:07

LakshmanPST wrote:
These yellow lines are marked based on the maps from the links posted here--->
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7810&start=6680#p2452144

It is some analysis done by some Chinese guy...


LakshmanPST ji, sorry I haven't had the time to translate the maps. If you tell me which one is the most interesting for you, I will translate the names, etc. Some names are quite different in Chinese, e.g.

巴里加斯 Balijiasi, Demchok village
天南河 Tiannan he, Raki Nalla
加勒万河谷 Jialewan hegu, Galwan valley; 加勒万河 Jialewan he, Galwan river
什约克河 shényuēkè hé, Shyok river

If you use Google translate, 空喀山口 Kōngkā shānkǒu, Kongka La will often be mistranslated as Empty kazan pass

RaviB
BRFite
Posts: 197
Joined: 09 Jun 2020 14:32

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 10 Aug 2020 16:40

I have translated some of the maps by a Chinese guy that I had linked to earlier and one of which was then analysed by LakshmanPST ji
It might be useful to see this from the Chinese side.

The original link to the map https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/150959735
I only translated one section. Based on your interest and my time availability, I could do more. Please point me to a specific link or map in the list that you would like translated.

I have added the images on imgur to avoid clutter here https://imgur.com/a/u1oqb1r and used only one here

The yellow line is the Xinjiang/Tibet boundary. The blue dotted line is the LAC versions of both India and China. Below the map I have translated the Chinese names to Indian usage
Image

① The main stream of the Chang Chenmo River or Changchenmo. It is a tributary of the Shyok River
② Kugrung River.
③ Changlong River.
④ Kyapsang River. [This is somewhat questionable, AFAIK, Kyapsang river does not cross Kongka La. Might be due to there being Kyapsang Tardad (halting ground) around here ]
⑤ Silung Barma River.
⑥Stathrao River.

A Superior Han Army (SHA) hot spring post.
B SHA Kongka La post, the road from Tianwendian to Kongka La, ends here. The Kongka La - Hongshan road goes east from here, and connects with the G219 national highway in the Hongshan Daban [daban=mountain pass] area. The Pangong Lake-Yingjilong (also called Ying Keelung), near the Kongka La) road comes from the direction of Pangong Lake in the southwest and ends at Yingjilong. There is also a simple road to the south along the Stathrao Valley. See also this google map satellite image
C Kongka La (Pass)/Ying Keelung.
D Indian Army Kiamu [??] hot spring position.
E Karam Singh post of the Indian army.


For location confusion, this link on wikipedia might be useful, though not authoritative https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... Aksai_Chin
Also links to lots of old and excellent maps

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14553
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 10 Aug 2020 21:08

amar_p wrote:pankajs, India is no Tajikistan. China has its greedy ambitions, but they can't go about it in the same way with every neighbour.

The point I'm making is collusion between Pakis and Chinese regarding Indian territory of J&K. The Pakis have a compulsive need for it and the Chinese have an obsessive greed for it. Their CPEC agreement is that collusion.

The whole OBOR drama is nothing but getting control on strategic pieces of real-estate everywhere. Does anyone think inclusive development of impoverished nations is CCP's goal with OBOR ?

On the way forward, your a b c d steps are not making sense. China is playing this like a game of GO. Place a stone here, place a stone there with the aim of gobbling an area around it. Their main objective will be to grab Ladhak sector to grab control of the rest of J&K. Other areas can be distractions/bargaining chips/bonus gains if India defends them any less.

I'm willing to bet they won't de-escalate in Ladakh any time soon, nor will they go aggressive until US elections are over and the attitude of the next dispensation - be it DT 2nd term or Biden - becomes clear. They hope to tire India out, wait for a moment when our friends are distracted, and make a move. If China moves first in the coming months, it won't just be for salami slicing, and will also force Pak to get active. On the international stage they will claim that J&K is a historically disputed territory.

If India moves first and with great force to evict the intruders/transgressors, it can achieve a decisive outcome, and redraw many borders at once.

1. While India is no Tajikistan, you spoke of the generic Chinese mindset when you wrote "China's lizard brain is now convinced that it has obtained certain degree of rights". I am pointing out their generic mindset NOT what they will do with India or to Russia or America or even Tajikistan or Bakistan.

2. My comment was to your specific thoughts "However, to not stake the progress of OBOR on wresting J&K from India, a derisking agreement was made with Iran."

OBOR and CEPC are not the same. J&K will NOT determine the success or failure of OBOR, a much larger project than CEPC. OBOR will not be derisked by the Iran agreement.

3. IF India is able to get China to restore status quo ante, then our Ladakh is back with us. We are not discussing ways to get Aksi Chin back here.

China may well not de-escalate BUT that was not the matter of your original post where you wrote "Entire J&K is at stake and this problem will not go away by getting China to simply pull back to status quo ante.

A comprehensive military defeat of China & Pak rendering their CPEC agreement caduc is the only lasting solution for India."

to which I replied "A defeat of the Chinese/Baki axis leading to a collapse of the CEPC is also not going to stop the Chinese. Only a comprehensive weakening of the Chinese from the inside OR the breakup of China is finally going to stop it. Now that is something that India, on its own, cannot achieve."

In a sense, I am going further than you in postulating that even a "comprehensive military defeat" of the China/Baki axis in PoKJ/PoGB/CPEC is NOT going to stop China! This is based on my understanding of their generic mindset.

With China we have to be prepared for the long haul. China thinks in terms of comprehensive national power and till we are far behind China on that metric, there is always a risk of a Chinese gambit on our border and in our neighborhood. A "comprehensive military defeat" of Chin/Bakis will fetch us a few years to a few decades of peace but the Chinese will not stop trying to get their way till they believe they have more "comprehensive national power" than India and may be not even then.

4. Finally, better to reply to posts even if you delete all the text inside because it notifies the other party. I don't everyone reads every post on every thread.

shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6881
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby shyamd » 10 Aug 2020 22:53

ramana wrote:
Boss don't go into Coupta mode.
IA or any service won't give any warning stern or otherwise to govt.

Of course things are said with respect/politeness but the warning has been given and it'll be released to the public after this episode.
I think your issue is more to do with the word warning...think of it as impact and current trajectory has been explained.

As for the phone call to Xi, he wants that.
It undercuts our own local commanders.

Boss, the local commanders are saying the talks are waste of time and kicking it up a level. Doval and counterpart are exposing the situation and directions are issued back down through normal routes.

Russia is involved in back-channel talks now - it won't happen unless the situation is bad...

abhik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3059
Joined: 02 Feb 2009 17:42

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 11 Aug 2020 23:58

A good illustration of the current or under construction airfields near the LAC region. Of special interest are the 4 airfields in Xinjiang in that are all at relatively low altitudes. Hotan and Kashi are already militarised, I'd expect they might do the same for the other two (Shache and Keriya) in a couple of years - that will wipe out any air power advantage we have now, and might actually put us in a disadvantage at least with respect to northern Ladakh.
Image

VinodTK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2382
Joined: 18 Jun 2000 11:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VinodTK » 12 Aug 2020 01:20



PLA rocket forces - an analysis
Good analysis by Shiv

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4774
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby vijayk » 12 Aug 2020 04:24

Deleted ... dated
Last edited by vijayk on 12 Aug 2020 05:43, edited 1 time in total.

Thakur_B
BRFite
Posts: 1700
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Thakur_B » 12 Aug 2020 04:34

vijayk wrote:

Any truth?


24th June report.

SidSoma
BRFite
Posts: 144
Joined: 16 Feb 2018 15:09

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SidSoma » 12 Aug 2020 14:06

two thing that I am surprised has not happened to a greater degree.

1. Official version of Galwan clash with details of release of Chinese Prisioners: I have no clue why any agreement with Chinese is to be respected.
2. Official and robust rejection of the One China policy: with the proclaimation that someday if taking back PoK means action against CPEC then So Be It.

I dont think I have seen any official statements on this so far.

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2721
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby darshan » 12 Aug 2020 18:43

Pakistan Gives Illegal Gold, Uranium Mining Contracts To China In India's Gilgit Baltistan Territory
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/pakistan- ... -territory
Pakistan, in violation of international laws and defiance of its own Constitution, has given a free hand to Chinese mining companies to plunder natural resources in the occupied Gilgit Baltistan (GB) area. Not only that, Islamabad has also signed a multi-billion dollar contract with Beijing to build a mega dam in the Daimer division, an area that legally belongs to India.

Over 2,000 leases for mining of gold, uranium and molybdenum have been illegally awarded to Chinese firms by the Pakistan government in Gilgit and Baltistan, also known as Northern Areas.

manjgu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2455
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 10:33

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby manjgu » 12 Aug 2020 19:51

SidSoma wrote:two thing that I am surprised has not happened to a greater degree.

1. Official version of Galwan clash with details of release of Chinese Prisioners: I have no clue why any agreement with Chinese is to be respected.
2. Official and robust rejection of the One China policy: with the proclaimation that someday if taking back PoK means action against CPEC then So Be It.

I dont think I have seen any official statements on this so far.

Lets wait for aug 15 speech ...

YashG
BRFite
Posts: 184
Joined: 22 Apr 2017 00:10

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby YashG » 12 Aug 2020 21:50

** Irrelevant **
Last edited by SSridhar on 13 Aug 2020 07:54, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54707
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 12 Aug 2020 22:30

SidSoma wrote:two thing that I am surprised has not happened to a greater degree.

1. Official version of Galwan clash with details of release of Chinese Prisioners: I have no clue why any agreement with Chinese is to be respected.
2. Official and robust rejection of the One China policy: with the proclaimation that someday if taking back PoK means action against CPEC then So Be It.

I dont think I have seen any official statements on this so far.



Things are not so cut and dry.
Xi JinPing is playing for very short term goals
India is playing for longer goals.
So lets see.
Do watch Jaishankar's statements about this aspect.

yensoy
BRFite
Posts: 1818
Joined: 29 May 2002 11:31
Location: USA

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby yensoy » 12 Aug 2020 23:00

** Irrelevant **
Last edited by SSridhar on 13 Aug 2020 07:55, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Do not post irrelevant stuff here.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4774
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby vijayk » 12 Aug 2020 23:46

** Irrelevant **
Last edited by SSridhar on 13 Aug 2020 07:56, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Do not post irrelevant stuff here.

Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4701
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Manish_Sharma » 13 Aug 2020 00:01

YashG wrote:Just wanted to bringup that an Indian American is now most likely going to be VP of US. I'm yet to figure out how that plays. But this person has a strong Indian connection. While that does mean the community is strong - but doesnt necessarily mean will benefit India. Desire to show loyalty to US/dispel any myth of being pro-india would mean, we might have surprises....


It'd be OT here

So Answered here:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7355&start=4240#p2453729

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 24117
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SSridhar » 13 Aug 2020 07:58

* Final Warning: No American Politics Here. *

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 24117
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SSridhar » 13 Aug 2020 08:04

Hope India won't complicate border issue: China - ToI
Reacting to reports that the LAC stand-off may not get resolved any time soon, China on Wednesday expressed hope that the “Indian side can meet the Chinese side half-way” and not do anything to further complicate the situation.

The Chinese embassy spokesperson tweeted late on Wednesday that China hoped India will refrain from any action that will complicate the border situation and that it will create “favourable conditions” for maintaining peace and stability in the border areas and healthy development of bilateral relations.

The statement was apparently in response to a query about an “Indian source” saying that the “confrontation” will last long. The official also said the two countries had been maintaining close communication through military and diplomatic channels and that the overall situation at the border is getting “stable and de-escalated”.

The Chinese statement is understood to be Beijing’s response to reports in Indian media quoting government sources as saying that the Indian army is preparing for a long haul in eastern Ladakh where the Chinese have refused to withdraw from Pangong Tso and Depsang Plains areas.

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3889
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 13 Aug 2020 14:13

Just for perspective the Chinese defence budget for 2006, when they were 3T GDP... 35B! I understand there will element of under reporting.

They used to maintain a much larger force than us, with almost fully local weapon system

Our budget at 3T: 70B! There will element of inflation. However there is also how inefficient out defense spending is. Bar a sprinkle of induction with low numbers, we haven't augment any offensive capability compared to 2006. No mass BM or 155MM or modern fighters in numbers.

Despite this we have inflation in our defence budget..

schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1736
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby schinnas » 13 Aug 2020 18:38

After the Chinese Ambi's statement, India is left with no option but to go kinetic either overtly or covertly. Let's just wait to see how events unfold. Given the propensity of this leadership to spring a surprise, Cheen may get blindsided and end up having to withdraw.

samirdiw
BRFite
Posts: 172
Joined: 18 Jul 2017 22:00

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby samirdiw » 13 Aug 2020 18:58

In my simple opinion, If we are looking to completely make a wedge between the US and China/Pak there is no other better opportunity than this. China/Pak is already against us. Why not force US hand?

1. Britain govt is pro-India or at least neutral
2. France is on our side
3. Russia still not fully on China/Pak side. Still trying to play both sides
4. US has pro-India govt
5. China has a pending problem on its East coast and cannot afford a long war with India even if it is not doing badly

A long Indian war with Pak/China (more than a month) will
1. Force US to take a anti-Pak stand from its neutral or prop up stand. If US enters the war the relation cannot be mended for the next 30 yrs (if Pak exists).
2. Britain wouldn't know what to do and that is exactly what we want
3. Show to the rest of the world that we are ready to play this out.
4. In a long battle US cannot let China win. A loss in a long term battle for an ally all but ends the American century. India is the only country with the manpower to take on China in a protracted battle. We are the only country to be in a situation to initiate a battle. If US doesn't join it will not get another opportunity. US has to unwillingly enter for its own benefit if the war drags on for close to a month.
5. Force China to push more and more resources on this side to finish the battle quickly. Any stalemate will only benefit us and reduce Chinese reputation.
6. We cannot afford to wait till China initiates a battle, gets initial victory by eliminating our forces in a certain area, declare victory and ceasefire, returning some land as a sign of magnanimity and keeping others(while saying no land taken). This would be disaster for the next 60 years.

For this we have to be ready to fight a long battle and not worry about some loss of land here and there during the process of the war. Don't miss the forest for the trees.

For this we should have planned the situation out a while ago and taken the measures to increase our military fighting capability for a long war. Chai Biscuit with Xi could have happened in parallel.
Our
1. Panic buying and hurried up defense policies
2. Broken defense procurement and lack of vision by the military (light tanks only thought of now? - Is Chinese artillery for show? heavy tanks useless because Pak has 40T bridges?, 6 apaches will do what?, LCH/LCA where?). Is the plan to fight for 2 weeks and then say no oil?

All these show that we will not miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.


Return to “Military Issues & History Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Avinash Rav, sarulan and 79 guests