India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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NRao
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by NRao »

"If the PLAAF attacks just three airfields, it will require 660 ballistic missiles per day for attacking the runway and taxi track alone. China’s stock of 1,000-1,200 MRBMs/SRBMs (medium- and short-range ballistic missiles) will be over in less than two days when attacking just three airfields, with no other major target systems being addressed," wrote the authors, quoting a former IAF official.
Really? 660 BMs per day? Per airfield?

India should more airfields and distribute crafts during a conflict - which should happen anyways, I would think.

Very interesting - the plug for "US intelligence".
LAC Stand-Off An Intelligence Failure

Frank O’Donnell, the lead author, told India Today TV that their assessment of the disposition of major Chinese and Indian combat forces has not changed since the publication in March.

That said, he pointed out that such a large movement by the PLA would have been picked up by Indian and US intelligence much in advance
I am not convinced that this was an "Intelligence Failure". It looks more like a failure to extrapolate, which the author admits when he mentions "feint". BTW, someone in India addressed this as a "backstab", which it was. China has gained immensely WRT "data", but I would like to think it lost a huge amount - which should resurface in the future.
"What has happened in this episode is that a large Chinese military exercise near the border areas was used as a feint, with Chinese forces then being diverted toward the positions they occupy today," O’Donnell said.
An Op Brasstacks redux?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Guddu »

My thinking on why China did this is: It was on behest of Pak to reduce some pressure from the LOC, or more likely China is concerned about India taking back POK and losing their CPEC investments. It is possible they want to indirectly guage what happens to their investments, if India takes back POK. A third reason is that they are testing our reaction times as well as resolve for a future strike where we will be convinced that China will again withdraw, but they wont.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Aditya_V »

NRao wrote:
"If the PLAAF attacks just three airfields, it will require 660 ballistic missiles per day for attacking the runway and taxi track alone. China’s stock of 1,000-1,200 MRBMs/SRBMs (medium- and short-range ballistic missiles) will be over in less than two days when attacking just three airfields, with no other major target systems being addressed," wrote the authors, quoting a former IAF official.
Really? 660 BMs per day? Per airfield?

India should more airfields and distribute crafts during a conflict - which should happen anyways, I would think.

Very interesting - the plug for "US intelligence".
LAC Stand-Off An Intelligence Failure

Frank O’Donnell, the lead author, told India Today TV that their assessment of the disposition of major Chinese and Indian combat forces has not changed since the publication in March.

That said, he pointed out that such a large movement by the PLA would have been picked up by Indian and US intelligence much in advance
I am not convinced that this was an "Intelligence Failure". It looks more like a failure to extrapolate, which the author admits when he mentions "feint". BTW, someone in India addressed this as a "backstab", which it was. China has gained immensely WRT "data", but I would like to think it lost a huge amount - which should resurface in the future.
"What has happened in this episode is that a large Chinese military exercise near the border areas was used as a feint, with Chinese forces then being diverted toward the positions they occupy today," O’Donnell said.
An Op Brasstacks redux?
Important thing to note it is equally difficult but important we put PAF out of action, especially thier key 8-9 airfields. Making Dhaka airport in operational was key to victory for the 1971 war.
NRao
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by NRao »

I would not go back to Dhaka as an example (Dhaka, IMHO, had no teeth to bite back, Pakistan, and China for sure do. But that for a diff thread).

IF indeed it requires that many missiles, why would India, with her strength in IT depend on missiles? I would invest very heavily in electronic warfare - as the Israelis have (and India probably has or could rely on others to provide some support). Very unfortunately, that article/paper makes no mention of EW!!! And, if I were to use missiles, I would look to destroy planes and not runways.

Anyways, looking at China by itself, China in Tibet area, for the very near future is no problem (IMHO). China with her powers to manipulate everything outside of Tibet is a problem. I would not look at this as a LAC or Tibet or even an Aksai Chin issue. And certainly not (as I have posted before) a Finger 4-8 or Galwan Valley, or Hot Springs issue. It is good that China is withdrawing (NOT disengaging) her forces from the LAC, but the larger problem still exists and needs to be addressed.

With the end of this episode starts the larger episode - economical - including trade deficits, political, protection of power, etc.

I would include Google, who I am told removed an app to remove all Chinese apps and Twitter, who I am told disabled Amul's account for a day. That is unacceptable. What the Gov of China does (in threatening Google/ etc) the Indian people should do.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by ldev »

NRao wrote:
"If the PLAAF attacks just three airfields, it will require 660 ballistic missiles per day for attacking the runway and taxi track alone. China’s stock of 1,000-1,200 MRBMs/SRBMs (medium- and short-range ballistic missiles) will be over in less than two days when attacking just three airfields, with no other major target systems being addressed," wrote the authors, quoting a former IAF official.
Really? 660 BMs per day? Per airfield?
It's 660 BMs to keep 3 IAF airfields out of operation 24 hours a day. That means 220 BMs per airfield over a 24 hour period to keep the runways and taxiways inoperative. Presumably the aircraft would be in hardened shelters and safe but unable to use the airfield.

We in BRF (or at least I) have always believed that the PLAAF will try and knock out IAF airfields early in an all out war by lanching short range ballistic missile attacks on those IAF bases. It is good to know that this has been gamed by the IAF down to the number of BMs the PLAAF will need to launch every few hours at each airfield to create more craters in the runway/taxiway system as repair crews patch them up from the prior attack, and that at least according to the IAF the PLAAF's entire inventory of short range missiles,1200 or thereabouts will not cause a catastrophic hit on IAF operations.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Deans »

nam wrote:How many of us have realized that Pak Army HQ in Pindi ,Isloo, ISI HQ is only 85KM from our location in Poonch?

They are within our Pinaka & Smerch range :D

Dimmer's place is 76KM..
Apart from this, the number of villages in POK within 105/ 155mm artillery range is higher than the number of villages on our side of the LOC.
If there is an exchange of indiscriminate arty fire and assuming both sides have the same number of guns, they will incur higher civilian casualties.
(I'm assuming artillery is stationed well behind the LOC and higher trajectories to get over mountains, reduce range).
If we have civilian casualties, it will undermine any love the KMs have for Pak, so it not be altogether a bad thing.
If one of our artillery divisions is permanently stationed in the valley, we would have both a larger no of guns and more targets on the other side. If every time an infiltration attempt happens, we destroy a village (ostensibly a terrorist launch pad near that village) in POK it could lead Pak to rethink if their current infiltration strategy is viable.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Roop »

mody wrote:Our Nuclear posture espouses NFU anyways.
Not any more. The original policy of unconditional NFU was announced in the early post-Pokhran years, mostly in a desperate attempt to stave off international pressure regarding nukes etc. Since then (i.e. in the roughly 20 years since that first announcement) our declared policy on nuke use has been modified a couple of times, and was discussed on this forum too. As I recall (and I'm going from memory here) the policy in effect now is "unconditional NFU against non-nuclear-weapon states". What we will do if attacked by a NWS is sort of vague and non-specific, and deliberately so. Possibly, parts of this discussion may still exist in the "Deterrence" thread.

There is absolutely no reason for China to assume, for example, that if they suddenly launch a massive surprise conventional attack on Arunachal Pradesh and look like they may capture large parts of the state, that India would simply swallow that loss and not go nuclear.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by basant »

Source: Twitter
FrontalAssault @FrontalAssault1
11:04 AM · Jun 10, 2020

Update on Karachi:
1. Our Jets went in, to check Pak preparedness & caught them napping again.
2. Our jets moved on own side, creating panic in PAF.
3. IAF did something, which might not be revealed.
4. PAF anticipated IAF action after Indian Army targetted PA Btn HQ along LoC.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Larry Walker »

https://youtu.be/bJivedyxvVk

Watch this video - Ladakh MP Jamyang Tsering gives a blow-by-blow account of how much land UPA government lost to China by pussy-footing. Compare that to Dokalam standoff and current standoff because Modi decided to standup to China !! These congress traitors need to be dragged out and shot .. bloody hipocrites
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Hari Nair »

Ajai Shukla, the "scribe" has posted an update on the Rag on the last military level talks :

https://thewire.in/security/in-talks-ch ... angong-tso

Whereas, he does pander to his clientele with his slanted reporting skills, the article is perhaps worth a read, after applying the appropriate 'bias filter'.

Some relevant portions after filtering out the anti-Modi fluff:
However, sources on the ground paint a far bleaker picture of Chinese intransigence along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). They say that during the talks, the PLA interlocutors flatly rejected the Indian demand for Chinese troops to withdraw from areas they occupied in May and restore the status quo that prevailed in April.
In fact, during the military-to-military dialogue on Saturday, China refused to even discuss its intrusions into the Galwan River valley, instead claiming ownership over the entire area.
Underlining these sharp divergences between the Indian and Chinese positions, no joint statement was released after Lieutenant General Harinder Singh, the Leh corps commander, met PLA Major General Liu Lin, who heads the South Xinjiang Military Region in a bid to defuse the confrontation.
During the talks, the PLA indicated they were taking control of the Galwan River valley, which has traditionally been a peaceful sector where China adhered to a claim line. Now PLA negotiators have asserted ownership of the entire Galwan Valley, claiming that China had controlled the hilltops astride the Galwan River for “as long as they could remember.”
The PLA alleged that the one-kilometre-long track that India had built from the Shyok-Galwan river junction, heading eastwards along the Galwan River, was an encroachment on Chinese territory. They alleged that India was developing this track into a metal (black-topped) road.
The Indian army representatives countered that the Chinese had constructed a metal road right to where the LAC had existed up till May – that is five kilometres from where the Galwan flows into the Shyok river – and that the road would soon cross the LAC. The Chinese responded that the Galwan Valley was their area and it was legitimate for them to build a road in it.
Indian negotiators also objected strongly to PLA troops deploying in the close vicinity of India’s Gogra post. Sources say the PLA did not offer a cogent response.
Nor was there a cogent PLA response to Indian allegations that the Chinese were constructing a road on India’s side of the LAC between Hot Springs and Gogra.
Pangong Tso area
Responding to Indian charges of Chinese intrusions onto the Pangong Tso north bank, the PLA negotiators claimed they had “acted rightfully” in constructing a metalled road up to Finger 4, and preparing defensive positions in that disputed area.
Prior to May, the Indian army regularly patrolled till their perceived LAC at Finger 8, eight kilometres east of Finger 4. However, since May 5, when thousands of PLA troops blocked and savagely beat up outnumbered Indian troops in that area, Indian patrols are unable to go beyond Finger 4, which the Chinese now claim is the LAC.
The Chinese military officials accepted that the aggression with which PLA soldiers attacked Indian troops at the Pangong Tso in mid-May “was not in the right spirit,” but said it was a reaction to Indian patrols crossing the PLA’s version of the LAC.
The Indian army also brought up the need to reduce forward deployments of PLA soldiers, armoured vehicles and artillery guns. The Chinese responded they would have to refer the matter to their superiors.
Gains and losses
Army sources apprehend the PLA has gained strategically in the Galwan Valley, where they now occupy positions overlooking the strategic Darbuk-Shyok-Daulet Beg Oldi (DSDBO) road to Depsang, at the base of the Karakoram Pass.
The Chinese have also gained strategically by isolating the Depsang area, as a consequence of dominating the DSDBO road. There is currently a large Chinese armour build up opposite Depsang, which is raising apprehensions of surprise ingress in that sector by the PLA.
Chinese gains in the Pangong Tso area, however, are being seen as tactical, even though the levels of violence the PLA displayed there is worrisome.
The other PLA activities at Naku La (Sikkim) and at Harsil and Lipu Lekh (Uttarakhand) are being viewed as “red herrings”, aimed at tying down Indian troops rather than serving any larger strategic objectives.
Who, I wonder are his 'sources'? If we assume some elements of truth in his reporting of the build-up, it may appear Gen Katoch's assessment of the Chinese cutting off the Depsang-DBO portion is a serious possibility, in a skirmish this season.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by madhu »

IAF went close to karachi with attack formation

But why karachi? What msg was it giving to pak?
Last edited by madhu on 10 Jun 2020 13:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by chola »

ldev wrote:1962≠2020: US study explains India's conventional edge over China
Ankit Kumar
New Delhi
June 9, 2020UPDATED: June 9, 2020 17:49 IST

India holds a conventional advantage to ward off a 1962-type setback in the event of a full-scale escalation with China primarily because of its Beijing-centric deployments across air, land and high-altitude platforms, according to a US study.

The research paper, published by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School earlier this year, analysed comparative data of Indian and Chinese strategic assets.

The study, however, noted New Delhi's conventional advantage remains "under-appreciated" in Indian discourse.


The publication introduced a new data compilation based on "published intelligence documents, private documents sourced from regional states, interviews with experts based in China, India, and the United States".

It gave a comprehensive assessment of "the location and capabilities of Chinese and Indian strategic forces". The two authors of the study are Dr Frank O’Donnell, who is a non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center's South Asia Program and Dr Alexander K Bollfrass, a senior researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich.

Conventional Forces

The research estimated that India's total available army strike forces near China’s border areas to be around 225,000 personnel against an estimated 200,00-230,000 Chinese ground forces under the Western Theater Command, and Tibet and Xinjiang military districts.

But then the study found the Chinese numbers misleading.

"Even in a war with India, a significant proportion of these forces will be unavailable, reserved either for Russian taskings or for countering insurrection in Xinjiang and Tibet," it says.

The authors observed that a majority of Chinese troops are located further from the Indian border, "posing a striking contrast with the majority of forward-deployed Indian forces with a single China defence mission".


Air Capabilities

The Chinese Air Force (PLAAF), according to the authors, also suffers from a numerical disparity to the Indian Air Force (IAF) in the border region.

China’s Western Theater Command controls all regional strike aircraft in this area, the proportion of which are needed to be reserved for "Russia-centric missions", the study said.

China, it added, hosts a total of around 101 fourth-generation fighters in this theatre, which also include Russian defence, against around 122 Indian comparables solely directed at China.

China would likely be compelled to rely more upon its rear-area air bases, which will "exacerbate its limited fuel and payload problems", the authors say.

Most PLAAF pilots are over-reliant upon ground control for tactical direction, which the study notes may turn out to be counterproductive.

According to the study, the Indian fighter pilots have a level of institutional experience in actual networked combat due to ongoing conflicts with Pakistan.

Although China has a superior missile force, it is unlikely to overcome the PLAAF disadvantage at once.

"If the PLAAF attacks just three airfields, it will require 660 ballistic missiles per day for attacking the runway and taxi track alone. China’s stock of 1,000-1,200 MRBMs/SRBMs (medium- and short-range ballistic missiles) will be over in less than two days when attacking just three airfields, with no other major target systems being addressed," wrote the authors, quoting a former IAF official.


The authors believe that China may permanently station large forces nearer to the border but it will give time for a counter-build-up by India.

LAC Stand-Off An Intelligence Failure

Frank O’Donnell, the lead author, told India Today TV that their assessment of the disposition of major Chinese and Indian combat forces has not changed since the publication in March.

That said, he pointed out that such a large movement by the PLA would have been picked up by Indian and US intelligence much in advance.

"What has happened in this episode is that a large Chinese military exercise near the border areas was used as a feint, with Chinese forces then being diverted toward the positions they occupy today," O’Donnell said.

He termed the current situation an outcome of "a significant intelligence failure" and suggested that "there should be a Kargil Review Committee-level public inquiry as to how this intelligence failure was permitted to occur and provide recommendations for preventing a recurrence"
.
I said all this during Doklam after looking up pure numbers -- distance and bases. The numbers advantages were even greater then.

And the 101 to 122 ratio in 4th gen fighters is a false narrative. The amount of J-11/J-10 aircraft in Tibet is around 10-15. The other aircraft are much further away.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by basant »

*self-deleted*
Last edited by basant on 10 Jun 2020 15:20, edited 1 time in total.
chola
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by chola »

NRao wrote:I would not go back to Dhaka as an example (Dhaka, IMHO, had no teeth to bite back, Pakistan, and China for sure do. But that for a diff thread).

IF indeed it requires that many missiles, why would India, with her strength in IT depend on missiles? I would invest very heavily in electronic warfare - as the Israelis have (and India probably has or could rely on others to provide some support). Very unfortunately, that article/paper makes no mention of EW!!! And, if I were to use missiles, I would look to destroy planes and not runways.

Anyways, looking at China by itself, China in Tibet area, for the very near future is no problem (IMHO). China with her powers to manipulate everything outside of Tibet is a problem. I would not look at this as a LAC or Tibet or even an Aksai Chin issue. And certainly not (as I have posted before) a Finger 4-8 or Galwan Valley, or Hot Springs issue. It is good that China is withdrawing (NOT disengaging) her forces from the LAC, but the larger problem still exists and needs to be addressed.

With the end of this episode starts the larger episode - economical - including trade deficits, political, protection of power, etc.

I would include Google, who I am told removed an app to remove all Chinese apps and Twitter, who I am told disabled Amul's account for a day. That is unacceptable. What the Gov of China does (in threatening Google/ etc) the Indian people should do.
The end analysis is this:

The troops and equipment numbers mean that Cheen CANNOT go on an offensive against India unless it is insanely suicidal. Not with a 10-1 numbers disadvantage. It can act aggressive but its basic posture is defensive. They have better infrastructure and mobility but it is still shifting troops from one spot to the another to counter what they think are specific threats.

The reason for the huge numbers advantages as I always explained is both geography and geo-politics. It is hard to maintain men and equipment in Tibet and they have overwhelmingly more pressing things to protect in their East like their entire industrial complex and wealth center.

The amount of dhoti shivering we have for the chinis is misplaced. We hold the offensive card. Unless Cheen builds up its forces in an enormous way (that will be detected) we will continue to hold it.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by nam »

We have been constantly telling in here, how Chini BM might create a initial Shock & Awe, but will not make difference to the war. All IAF has to do is keep moving the assets around. Grow the forest around the airbases and create some secure location to store the weapons. The fighters can flyout with radars monitoring BM in the air.

Create more ALG, which is what IAF has been doing.

For simple numbers: USN fired 120 Tomahawks to take out a Libyan airbase. 56 at Syrian base, which was back up in 4 hours.

Iranians fired 8 BM at US base and it was difficult to even find out where the hits were in the satellite photos!

BM & CM are glorified 250, 500KG dumb bombs. If a fighter dropping 10 1000lb bomb on a airbase is not a big deal, what is special about a BM?

Now that goras have mentioned it, hopefully everyone will believe it.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Manish_Sharma »

TWITTER

@DrApr007

Unconfirmed Report

IAF shot down a PAF F-16 last night near Karachi or Pakistan Air Defence System shot down its own F-16 mistakenly when a formation of IAF jets flew near karachi last night.

https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/127 ... 69128?s=19
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Aditya_V »

Highly Unlikely, this seems pure fiction. IAf might been just keeping PAF on edge, more Opex less Capex .
Last edited by Aditya_V on 10 Jun 2020 15:28, edited 1 time in total.
nam
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by nam »

Deans wrote: Apart from this, the number of villages in POK within 105/ 155mm artillery range is higher than the number of villages on our side of the LOC.
If there is an exchange of indiscriminate arty fire and assuming both sides have the same number of guns, they will incur higher civilian casualties.
(I'm assuming artillery is stationed well behind the LOC and higher trajectories to get over mountains, reduce range).
If we have civilian casualties, it will undermine any love the KMs have for Pak, so it not be altogether a bad thing.
If one of our artillery divisions is permanently stationed in the valley, we would have both a larger no of guns and more targets on the other side. If every time an infiltration attempt happens, we destroy a village (ostensibly a terrorist launch pad near that village) in POK it could lead Pak to rethink if their current infiltration strategy is viable.
Oh yeah, I have been a constant proponent of this. Everytime there is a infiltration or an attack on our jawans in J&K or losses in COIN, we need to carry out a LC wide artillery fire assault with 155MM rounds.

Maintain a 500K 155MM rounds per year as gifts to Pak. We can easily afford it.

Deliberate delay in induction of 155MM guns must be the CBM, which our politicians has given to Pak. :roll:

The highest priority according to me should be the induction of 155MM artillery.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Ashokk »

India wants China to de-induct its 10,000 troops, heavy weapons deployed along the LAC
"Disengagement has started in the eastern Ladakh sector but what we want is de-induction of more than a division size troops (10,000 plus troops) that have been deployed by the Chinese in the rear positions in its territory along the Line of Actual Control. Disengagement is fine but the tensions can be done away with only when the Chinese de-induct their heavy build-up which includes the deployment of more than a division size of troops along with heavy artillery, tanks and infantry combat vehicles," top government sources told ANI.
The sources said in view of the Chinese deployment, the Indian side has also deployed more than 10,000 troops in the Ladakh sector to match the PLA and prevent any other activities by it.
China has also deployed fighter aircraft and fighter bombers at its rear positions on side of the LAC at the Hotan and Gar Gunsa air bases which generally don't have such high concentration of troops.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Narad »

madhu wrote:IAF went close to karachi with attack formation

But why karachi? What msg was it giving to pak?
The news source is based upon twitter chatter onlee.
ANI reporting that pakis are conducting some night training exercise for which NOTAM was already issued in advance. Maybe an intelligence gathering exercise by IAF close to borders.
https://aninews.in/news/national/genera ... 610130052/
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by khan »

IMO - this Karachi thing sounds like a message to the Pakistani’s, if they try to take advantage of the China standoff, don’t expect India to limit the fight to the LOC, International border will also be violated.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by chola »

Aditya_V wrote:Highly Unlikely, this seems pure fiction. IAf might been just keeping PAF on edge, more Opex less Capex .
Pakis shooting down their F-Sola though is highly likely with them scared stiff and on hair-trigger of the next IAF attack. lol
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by samirdiw »

ldev wrote:
NRao wrote:
Really? 660 BMs per day? Per airfield?
It's 660 BMs to keep 3 IAF airfields out of operation 24 hours a day. That means 220 BMs per airfield over a 24 hour period to keep the runways and taxiways inoperative. Presumably the aircraft would be in hardened shelters and safe but unable to use the airfield.
Seems a bit far fetched they would really need 220 BM's to put off an airfield inoperable for practical purpose? That's like 1 missile every 6-7 minutes. What if they instead decided to launch 1 every hour. Would an hour be sufficient to get in the engineers and machinery (assuming they haven't been hit in one of these), patch up the runway, get in all the aircraft of the squadron, fill up with the fuel, missiles and all takeoff for the mission without any knowledge of when the next missile comes in. You cant have a mission with a couple of planes take off, a plane on the runway blown up by an incoming missile and the remaining waiting to take off. With this way it seems more like the 3 airfields can be put off action by atleast 30 days which is more than enough time to create a lot of problems for IA against the PLA/PLAAF combo. Seems like the former IAF official's been drinking, cooked up the story or taken this too lightly.

This seems like Team India's planning for spinner Dipak Patel opening the bowling for NZ in 92 world cup. What is our plan...aaah Srikanth will take care of it. Boom end of planning. We know how that went. :D
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Vips »

Chinese lizard Uvacha: China, India taking steps to 'ease' situation along borders.
The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson's remarks came a day after officials in New Delhi suggested that armies of India and China have undertaken a "limited disengagement" in few areas in eastern Ladakh in a demonstration of their intent to end the border standoff peacefully ahead of another round of military talks on Wednesday.
This is all conditional. We have got to be careful and not trust the Chinese.They will do notional pull-off but if what shooklaw has written is true then we should make our pull out conditional to them restoring the previous status in Depsang and Finger 4-8 area.

The chinese would no doubt take lessons from the Indian response and plug the areas where they are weak. It is upto India now to do likewise and induct ATGM's, man portable SAM's, ultra light and truck mounted howitzers in good numbers.Our Armour forces also need to go up.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Yagnasri »

No one with reasonable grey matter is going to trust them anyway. Least of all this Indian administration.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Aditya_V »

Nobody in India will trust them, but we just have to over time make sure we patrol till Sirijap.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by suryag »

BTW, we did lose some amount of territory during UPA-2008 based on Ladakh MP's statement in parliament today
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by nam »

The incursion that the Chinese have been doing, is based on the historical give away that we have been doing.

Nothing else explains the confidence that they will get away with it.

Having said that, we don't know how much we "sliced". After all the LAC is 3000KM long..
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by RohitH »

All these CAPS by IAF near Karachi, India digging heels asking China to first move back and verify before India shows "some" reciprocity are all painful situations for the two neighbors. This will continue until either there is negotiated settlement in India's favor or sharp short war for which India is more than prepared. China of all countries doesn't want war.

This game will continue until China realizes or is made to realize that it can only benefit when all of Kashmir is under Indian control.
Pakistan will be settled in short order as soon as China falls in line.
The Chinese cost to maintain control of parts of Kashmir/Aksai Chin in peacetime has to increase manifolds without firing the shot.
This along with no visible benefit from their investment in Pakistan, loss of the Indian market will force them to change the track.
India should continue to show an equal amount of belligerence towards both China and Pakistan in all possible domains, diplomatic, economic, and military. More pain to China equals more gain to India.

Military belligerence will help two folds.
It will force China to keep men and material with a long logistics line in highly inhospitable terrain and bleed them financially.
My assumption is that our relative costs are low due to geographical proximity to plains.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by chola »

nam wrote:The incursion that the Chinese have been doing, is based on the historical give away that we have been doing.

Nothing else explains the confidence that they will get away with it.

Having said that, we don't know how much we "sliced". After all the LAC is 3000KM long..
What makes you think it is confidence? It could be fear. The skinny schoolboy would yell and scream and act aggressively hoping to scare off the bigger kid that he knows will cream him.

They were like that at Doklam and like this today. We are like that big boy that is looking at that screaming little chinaman calmly. When no one is looking, we'll elbow him in the ribs or grab an egg roll from his lunch pail. Maybe trip him in the school yard.

No one knows how much salami we sliced off of them. If we are getting salami-sliced with a 10 to 1 numbers advantage then we deserve it but I can almost guarantee that is not what is happening.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Karan M »

Combination of targets, missile CEP and their aims. Suppose you want to crater a runway beyond repair. You will have to put so many holes in it, that its effectively useless. It will have to be done all through the runway at specific areas to cut the runway so the minimum length for operations isn't met. Clearly more the runways, the more the challenge.

The same challenge exists for all point targets, like buildings etc. What are the most vulnerable are aircraft parked in the open w/o blast shelters. It is they which are at the greatest risk, as are personnel, fuel bowsers, vehicles, equipment.

Anyways, a RAND assessment against two long runway equipped Kadena AFB determined it would take 36 missiles to shut down the runway for fighter ops for 4 days, assuming a 8 hour repair time and 75% success rate. Additional missiles would be required against the other targets.

In IAF's situation, they would have to go after multiple AFB, both primary and satellite. So say 10 airfields and 20 runways, around 360 missiles for the runways alone.

Which is why I pointed out once that when we get the S-400s, we should buy multiple "Big Birds" to ensure each battalion become self-sufficient in terms of EW, and hence 1 can be tasked for Anti-aircraft another for a dedicated BMD role. So 5 regiments would give you around 10 batteries, or actually 10 independent squadrons worth.
samirdiw wrote:
ldev wrote:
It's 660 BMs to keep 3 IAF airfields out of operation 24 hours a day. That means 220 BMs per airfield over a 24 hour period to keep the runways and taxiways inoperative. Presumably the aircraft would be in hardened shelters and safe but unable to use the airfield.
Seems a bit far fetched they would really need 220 BM's to put off an airfield inoperable for practical purpose? That's like 1 missile every 6-7 minutes. What if they instead decided to launch 1 every hour. Would an hour be sufficient to get in the engineers and machinery (assuming they haven't been hit in one of these), patch up the runway, get in all the aircraft of the squadron, fill up with the fuel, missiles and all takeoff for the mission without any knowledge of when the next missile comes in. You cant have a mission with a couple of planes take off, a plane on the runway blown up by an incoming missile and the remaining waiting to take off. With this way it seems more like the 3 airfields can be put off action by atleast 30 days which is more than enough time to create a lot of problems for IA against the PLA/PLAAF combo. Seems like the former IAF official's been drinking, cooked up the story or taken this too lightly.

This seems like Team India's planning for spinner Dipak Patel opening the bowling for NZ in 92 world cup. What is our plan...aaah Srikanth will take care of it. Boom end of planning. We know how that went. :D
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Rakesh »

Please watch this video.

https://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status ... 13408?s=20 ---> So my team just told me that this video, a simple explainer on Indian Army's presence and preparedness along the Himlayan Frontier with China has crossed 200,000 views and counting! Thanks to everyone who watched it.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by chetak »

The hans have seemingly used a recent and huge ongoing military exercise to additionally mobilize up to the border and that exercise is why the chinese side moved heavy weapon with units like armour, arty guns and APCs as some sort of a test to see if India panics or how quickly it reacts to defend itself. The results would surely be a very unpleasant revelation to the PLA.

missile batteries because of their standoff capabilities may be lurking some safe distance away.

nitin gokhale's take

Nitin A. Gokhale@nitingokhale · 14h
Three points emerge from the trajectory of the recent standoffs at multiple locations along the India-China boundary. One, China is testing Indian military’s readiness and speed of response; Two, the PLA is unhappy with India’s improving infrastructure along the LAC;
And three, by mobilising larger numbers than ever before, the Xi Jinping-led CCP is sending a political message to India that it still has to deal with China bilaterally even if New Delhi becomes an important part of the emerging anti-China groupings and alliances


Military leadership on the ground emphatically asserts that there were no intrusions or occupation of Indian territory in these parts. We were not surprised, commanders in Ladakh said. Because we kept watch, we had a faceoff at PP-14 and PP-15, they added.

What indeed was new was the substantial numbers that were amassed on the Chinese side supported by armour, arty guns and APCs. Watching the buildup closely, India also mobilised similar or larger strength quickly with similar elements.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhik »

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1270618880461795328
Uttarakhand: An AN-32 transport aircraft of the Indian Air Force has carried out a successful landing at Chinyalisaur airstrip
Quite a bit away from the LAC but a good development never the less.
Image
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by ramdas »

This assertion of 660 BM needed to disable an airfield stems from the assumption that these conventional BM are not highly accurate: CEPs of 50 m or so. If they have missiles as accurate as the Soko Hyunmoo-2C (CEP claimed to be 1-5 m), that changes the picture altogether. Such accurate BM can target aircraft shelters, etc. Maybe the newer DF-16 is that capable.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by SBajwa »

Some are reporting that after scrambling of F-16 over Karachi last night one of the F-16 never made it back. Either shot down by IAF or shot down by friendly fire.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by ldev »

ramdas wrote:This assertion of 660 BM needed to disable an airfield stems from the assumption that these conventional BM are not highly accurate: CEPs of 50 m or so. If they have missiles as accurate as the Soko Hyunmoo-2C (CEP claimed to be 1-5 m), that changes the picture altogether. Such accurate BM can target aircraft shelters, etc. Maybe the newer DF-16 is that capable.
After the 60 Tomahawk cruise missile strike on the Shayrat Syrian Air Force Base, planes were using runways after about 4 hours according to some reports. The Russians claim that they only found 23 missiles on the air base, 36 others landed in unknown areas. Western analysts though say they found 44 targets struck within the airbase area. Regardless the runway was operational some hours later. So to keep it out of operation a repeat salvo would have been required every 4-6 hours.

Also the total PLAAF inventory of the DF-15 is about 1000 units. The DF-16 is newer and probably deployed in the mid double digits. And the PLAAF will not be able to move all of their short range missiles to the western theater from their present locations opposite the Taiwan Straits. Only a small fraction will be available to target India.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by ramdas »

Would'nt runway targeting be inefficient ? With accurate missiles (ballistic or supersonic cruise) targeting aircraft shelters would be more profitable. True that the DF-16 is not there in sufficient numbers right now, but that can change in the next 2 years or so. A large number of brahmos on our side, for starters, could help our cause and enable us to give back almost as good as we get.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhik »

I don't think any of our airbases in NE are close to the size of sprawling middle eastern bases, plus a lot of them don't appear to have HAS etc. either unlike the ones in western border, IMO lets not totally discount the damage BM strikes could do. Also PLAAF does have proper bombers, albeit based on vintage designs, IF they get free reign they have drop significant tonnage.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by nam »

Given that Iranian BM were very accurate, Chini BM will be accurate as well.

To deal with this, you just increase the target count. Built more fake shelters, buildings etc.

But then not all will be high explosives. Most of them would be clustered warhead either to drill hole on the runway, or hit shelters. We have such warheads for Prithvi.

The best way to escapre, is what the Americans did for Iranian BM attack. Emptied the buildings. We need to have a flexible approach in IAF. Able to move in to shelters, as soon as radars detect incoming BM.

Also once you a HAS which can take 2000lb hits, you need one single BM for each of them.
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