India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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abhishekm
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhishekm »

I don't know if this has been posted here earlier. If not, it's an interesting free to read PDF book by a Chinese army "Indian specialist" (a Hindi translator) who served in 1962. Though it's full of his one sided views on the performance of the Indian army, the political establishment and interaction with Indian POWs after the 1962 conflict it's a useful view from across the Himalayas:

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/re ... #pageNum=1

Gen. Panag posted his review of this book today on The Print:

https://theprint.in/opinion/what-plas-i ... ks/475890/
pankajs
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by pankajs »

I wasn't going to post this initially but now I am to illustrate deficit in our mental model (way of thinking) ...

https://twitter.com/FrontalAssault1/sta ... 8729257984
FrontalAssault @FrontalAssault1

Chinese request of stepping back equal distance in Pangong has been rejected by India. Any further stepping back would have left Indian positions in the area vulnerable. Talks at SR/Diplomatic level to solve the issue likely.
Our mental model (way of thinking) has been the cause of this self goal.

So, F4 was the line of contact between the Chinese and the Indian forces after the Chinese intrusion @ pangang Tso. Initially both sides agreed to backoff some, probably equal, distance to create a buffer. We retreated to between F3/F2 while the Chinese retreated bot between F5/F6. Forget the F4 green top post that the Chinese are adamant on keeping for the moment.

1. Now when we agreed to back off from F4, probably equally, what signal were we sending to the Chinese?
2. AND what did we expect the Chinese to comeback when we demanded that they retreat behind F8 in the next round?

1. The Chinese went away from the 1st round Pangang Tso disengagement understanding that India was equally if not more desperate to avoid a faceoff! We further reinforced the message that was delivered following the Galwan clash when we withdrew further back into the Indian side behind PP-14! THIS is a very crucial mistake in that the Chinese are reading our desperation to avoid Galwan type clash.

2. Once the Chinese have read our offer as our desperation to avoid Galwan type clash, they are quite right in demanding that we go back equally from between F3/F2 for them to shift back further. Effectively they have asked us to vacate the northern bank of Pangang Tso!

Our response to disengagement should have been that we are going to stick around F4 while the Chinese need to withdraw beyond F8. We should have let them know that we are ready for another Galwan type clash. There is nothing called good faith or fair negotiation. The earliest we learn that the better it is for us.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by pankajs »

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/natio ... tso-122756
India snubs China, says won’t pull back from Pangong Tso

The headline is laughable!

We should have stayed put at F4 with eyeball to eyeball deployment and put the onus of avoiding any clash around F4 on the Chinese. That was the stand we should have taken but we agreed to create a buffer zone and avoid a Galwan type clash!

I mean look at the commentary coming from China. Inspite of all implicit threats, they are the ones wanting to avoid a clash and prevent decoupling between the Indian and the Chinese economies. It would have been perfectly fine for India to have put the onus of avoiding a clash on the Chinese at Pangang Tso and stay put at F4 while asking them to move back.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by suryag »

Pankajs ji am not sure where you are getting this withdrawal from F4, please do not peddle this theory.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by pankajs »

^^
From memory .. 1st step of disengagement around Pangang Tso was that India backed off from F4 to between F3/F3 and the Chinese to between F6/F5. However, even the link in my previous post talks of a buffer ...

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/natio ... tso-122756
India snubs China, says won’t pull back from Pangong Tso
Instead, China asked India to move back to break the deadlock. The area west of Finger-4 was always firmly under Indian control and Beijing asking the Indian Army to move back was not acceptable, sources said. The 3-km buffer zone between troops of either side had been established already at Finger-4 as part of the disengagement process. “To ask us to move further away from the LAC was not acceptable,” added the sources.
Now plot that 3 km buffer equally on both sides of F4 and we will probably reach what I had written based on my recall.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Manish_Sharma »

abhishekm wrote:I don't know if this has been posted here earlier. If not, it's an interesting free to read PDF book by a Chinese army "Indian specialist" (a Hindi translator) who served in 1962. Though it's full of his one sided views on the performance of the Indian army, the political establishment and interaction with Indian POWs after the 1962 conflict it's a useful view from across the Himalayas:

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/re ... #pageNum=1

Gen. Panag posted his review of this book today on The Print:

https://theprint.in/opinion/what-plas-i ... ks/475890/
panag's AAPian + congi agenda is clear; panag, rahul & urban naxal crowd want to do equal equal between '1962 nehru' with '2020 Modi'

If they succeed it will bring nehru congi reputation a bit up and pulls Modi down few notches:
panag writes in the end:
It is hard to resist comparing the present situation in Eastern Ladakh with the happenings of 1962. The immediate strategic casusbelli — our development of border infrastructure (that is perceived by the Chinese as threatening “their territory”) without deploying troops to defend the same. Our initial actions being driven by an erroneous assessment of Chinese intent. And the political and military leadership pursuing a strategy to challenge a superior adversary without an ethical assessment of the differential in military capabilities.
https://theprint.in/opinion/what-plas-i ... ks/475890/
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by pankajs »

^^
Yup .. CONMafia + AAPiyas + Sickulars + Media + "Intellectuals" want to equate the Nehru blunder with Modi's temporary setback. There is simply no comparison and I have full faith in Modi to restore status quo as it existed before this year.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhik »

For OSINT gurus, this is in near Gogra/Hot Springs area, from Aug 2017 (as per Zoom earth). Looks like a significant PLA deployment/exercise or building staging areas fro future ops.
https://zoom.earth/#view=34.350799,79.1 ... ayers=esri
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by rsingh »

Doesn't make sense. What those military sats were for?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by VinodTK »


Indo-China Faceoff: Daulat Beg Oldie Road, India's Crucial Highway To North Ladakh That Jolted China

^^ Very impressive road
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhik »

LakshmanPST wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 383206.cms
The Chinese side transgressed in the areas of Kugrang Nala (near Patrolling Point-15, north of Hot Springs), Gogra (PP-17A) and north bank of Pangong Tso on May 17-18
In the above, Gogra and Pangong Tso are well known... But Kugrang Nala is not showing up on Google Maps...
However, Kugrang Nala has been marked in one of the old maps shared in this thread few pages back...

Based on that map I have located the Nala on Google Earth... I'm sharing the screenshot of the same below...

https://i.imgur.com/5Vr7mFJ.png
Green lines are Indian Roads
Blue/Cyan lines are Chinese Roads visible on Google Earth
Orange lines are Chinese Roads not visible on Google Earth and are approximately plotted based on various newspaper articles.
Red Line is Google Earth LAC
Yellow Lines are Indian claims of LAC plotted based on the Chinese links posted few post back by RaviB.
PP Points are based on a Sketch shared by Ajai Shukla :roll:

Kugrang Nala is the Nala that is starting in the West and flowing to PP16 and further to PP17/Gogra, where it meets Chang Chenmo RIver. There is an Indian road/track from PP17 upto PP16. Remaining part of the Nala has no Road/Track as per Google Earth.

At PP16, another Nala (Changlung Nala) flowing from Chinese side of LAC joins the Kugrang Nala...
The straight distance of PP16 is 3.5km from LAC. However, the Changlung Nala flows almost parallel to the LAC for a distance of almost 18 km inside Indian side of LAC...
This Nala has a Chinese road running along it upto PP16... There is also a Chinese post almost near PP16...
Basically, Chinese already have an existing road and post for 18km on our side of Google Earth LAC way before 2015.

Looks like this is another case of 'different perceptions' of LAC.
----
The more I'm plotting the roads, the more I realize how messed up the LAC situation is... There is no way this mess is going to be sorted out peacefully...
Thanks, that clears a lot for me, they have essentially gobbled up ~80-100 Sq Km. And that PP15 road eventually joins up with the Galwan valley road, everything is nicely interconnected on the Chinese side. And our post there faces a pincer from the north as well as the east. And I was having wet dreams of an IA offensive there :x looks like we might actually be quite vulnerable here.

Any idea on our road connectivity to the posts in Gorga? All I see is a mostly dirt track until it meets the Phobrang-Pangong north shore road (of course this is based on imagery from 3 years ago).Only other way to reach would be along the river that joins shyok (~53 Km from Galwan as the crow flies) - no signs of any roads here though.
abhik
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhik »

The Chinese have created a similar build up all along the LAC opposite Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh but the Chinese troops there are in depth areas. In the Ladakh sector, the defence ministry has now admitted that the Chinese troops have transgressed into Indian territory at multiple locations.
Err... this is the more significant news no? :roll:
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by LakshmanPST »

abhik wrote: Thanks, that clears a lot for me, they have essentially gobbled up ~80-100 Sq Km. And that PP15 road eventually joins up with the Galwan valley road, everything is nicely interconnected on the Chinese side. And our post there faces a pincer from the north as well as the east. And I was having wet dreams of an IA offensive there :x looks like we might actually be quite vulnerable here.
Yes, this road at PP15 is connected to both Chinese Hot Springs post and Galwan road...
Chinese have a very robust road network in the area... It would take atleast another 5 years for us to match them... Almost half the main roads on Chinese side are Black Top Roads, some even 10 years back...
Chinese Road network is like a Grid... They have 9 branch roads coming from G219 highway towards various locations in Aksai Chin area... And all these branch roads are interconnected by 2-3 Cross-roads...
If one road is blocked, they can access it from another route...
Example, if road from Hot-Springs to PP15 is blocked, they can still access it from behind, though it will take 120 km additional distance...

It is not the case with us... If they block 2-3 main roads, we do not have alternate access...
Any idea on our road connectivity to the posts in Gorga? All I see is a mostly dirt track until it meets the Phobrang-Pangong north shore road (of course this is based on imagery from 3 years ago).Only other way to reach would be along the river that joins shyok (~53 Km from Galwan as the crow flies) - no signs of any roads here though.
Yes, there is only one road visible on Google Earth, which seems to be a dirt track as per GE image, connecting to the entire Gogra area... That is branching from the main road going to North shore of Pangong Lake from Lukung at Phobrang...
If Chinese were in our position, they would have built a road directly from Shyok-DBO Road to Gogra along Chang Chemo River 20 years back...

Our roads are quite good only in Demchok area and near population centers in central Ladakh area... In the main Aksai Chin frontier, we are way behind the Chinese...
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by williams »

VinodTK wrote:
Indo-China Faceoff: Daulat Beg Oldie Road, India's Crucial Highway To North Ladakh That Jolted China

^^ Very impressive road
It is impressive but seems like it is still not complete and it only takes you until DBO. We need such a road all the way to the KK pass and we need branching roads to critical patrol points and junctions to be of any real threat to the Chinese. The fact that we are doing this in 2020 in itself shows the lethargy/or reluctance to deal with the Chins.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by RKumar »

I remember a very short discussion with my army friend, may be 3 year or so back he told me Modi wants us to fight China as GoI is pushing army hard to build roads till the border.

I was not sure what he meant but it is getting clearer with time.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Kakarat »

VinodTK wrote:
Indo-China Faceoff: Daulat Beg Oldie Road, India's Crucial Highway To North Ladakh That Jolted China

^^ Very impressive road
It would be nice if they pave the DBO ALG also
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by pankajs »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DubwKd9ABO0
At Dokla China's Build Up Has No Military Logic, Say Sikkim Sector Specialists


1. [07:00] In any future conflict the Chinese would like to secure their Chumbi valley because this is their critical venerability. The calculus of our military equation should be how do we keep our military option open ... very good option for us to do some quid pro quo should we get under pressure in some other sectors...

2. [11:00] The place that China is sitting {on Doklam plateau] does not give him any tactical advantage .. the strategic configuration of the ground is such that we are dominating from 3 sides and the kind of firepower we can bring to bear in that area any {Chinese} operation wil get aborted at the very outset.

3. [15:30] Areas where we could do quid pro quo .. many many place in Sikkim and Arunanchal pradesh.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by k prasad »

Kakarat wrote:
It would be nice if they pave the DBO ALG also
They're planning for that, I believe.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by SSridhar »

It need not only be lack of space-based assets, but also interpretation skills, communication up the chain, decision-making etc.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Prasad »

Correct. HALE uavs, ISTAR aircraft, more ground-based elint etc.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by pankajs »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... e-6541551/
India to China: Proposal to step back further is untenable, not acceptable
“The focus of the latest round of talks was on the Pangong lake area but the Chinese side refused to undertake any further disengagement unless Indian soldiers also step back by an equal distance. That is untenable as it would mean forsaking our longstanding historic posts on the bank and de facto accepting the Chinese version of the LAC in the area. It was conveyed to the Chinese that status quo ante remains our aim and their proposal was not acceptable,” sources said.
The Chinese forces, sources said, had stepped back from Finger 4 on the northern bank of the lake towards Finger 5, even as the Indian side agreed to step back by an equal distance towards its post near Finger 2. “But any further stepping back would mean vacating the Indian posts in the area and that was untenable,” sources said.
According to sources, the disengagement process followed so far — on PP14, PP15, PP17 and PP17A — was based on the principle of “mutual and equal” stepping back from friction points.
Sources said that at PP17 and PP17A in the Gogra-Hot Springs area, the Chinese side had not followed the disengagement process, leaving soldiers from both sides separated by one kilometre. Because of the Chinese stance, sources said, the possibility of further progress at these two points remains slim.
During Sunday’s meeting, sources said, India also raised the issue of Depsang plains where its patrols have been blocked from accessing five points — 10, 11, 11A, 12 and 13. The Chinese side has been blocking Indian soldiers at a site called “Y-junction” or “Bottleneck” in the area, 18 km inside the LAC. This, however, is not linked to the current crisis.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by k prasad »

^^^ How is this status quo ante? One would assume that status quo ante means we move back to finger 2/3 and the Chinese move back to finger 8, where their base was pre-April, right?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by williams »

k prasad wrote:^^^ How is this status quo ante? One would assume that status quo ante means we move back to finger 2/3 and the Chinese move back to finger 8, where their base was pre-April, right?
No, it is not. China is provoking us to react or accept the current state as fait accompli. It is a testing time for GoI.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by k prasad »

I'm specifically referring to our own principle for disengagement mentioned above:
According to sources, the disengagement process followed so far — on PP14, PP15, PP17 and PP17A — was based on the principle of “mutual and equal” stepping back from friction points.
... By simple mathematics, mutual and equal stepping back puts us in a more disadvantageous position considering the Chinese are the transgressing party. Status quo ante requires an UNequal step back.

My question is, why are we shooting ourselves in the foot with this equal step back nonsense even before we give the Chinese a chance to do that?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by williams »

k prasad wrote:I'm specifically referring to our own principle for disengagement mentioned above:
According to sources, the disengagement process followed so far — on PP14, PP15, PP17 and PP17A — was based on the principle of “mutual and equal” stepping back from friction points.
... By simple mathematics, mutual and equal stepping back puts us in a more disadvantageous position considering the Chinese are the transgressing party. Status quo ante requires an UNequal step back.

My question is, why are we shooting ourselves in the foot with this equal step back nonsense even before we give the Chinese a chance to do that?
The original idea was to disengage, deescalate and de-induct or whatever other de..s we wanted. My take is the Chinese are laughing their way out of these chai biscuit sessions. If we know that then the powers at various levels know it. They are not saying it publicly. I think they have a plan, I don't think it is just plain stalemate. But you are not going to know the plan from the Media or even OSINT. We can probably speculate. But the situation is quite complex and it is hard to do even that.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Manish_Sharma »

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/indian-na ... dian-ocean

With a considerable increase in the deployment of its warships in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), the Indian Navy is providing strategic support to its fellow services in the ongoing activities related to the border tensions with China.

The Indian Navy is said to have increased deployment of warships in the IOR since the border tensions with China began, government officials said. Some estimates indicate that the increase is almost 25 per cent.

The officials said that past 100 days have seen the Indian Navy operating from the Ladakh (with its P-8I surveillance aircraft) in the north to Mauritius, 7,000 km to the south, and from the Red Sea in the west to the Malacca Strait in the east, a distance of nearly 8,000 km.

Indian Navy deploys ships on Mission Based Deployments at key locations in the IOR so as to build a comprehensive maritime picture and respond to developing situations.

At any time, there are warships patrolling the Bay of Bengal, the Malacca Straits, the Andaman Sea, the southern and the central Indian Ocean Region, the Gulf of Aden and the Persian Gulf.

Additionally, following maritime security incidents, a combat-ready warship has also been deployed on Operation Sankalp since June 2019 for protection of Indian merchant vessels passing through the Persian Gulf.

"Being a network-enabled force, the Navy maintains total awareness of the IOR by using the IFC-IOR (Information Fusion Centre-Indian Ocean Region), ships on Mission Based Deployments, P-8I and Dornier surveillance aircraft and other high-end surveillance tools," a senior government official said.

Near-coast surveillance is also coordinated by the Indian Navy by coordinating the resources of nearly 20 government agencies to draw an electronic fence over our coastline, to deter any 26/11-type incident.

After Chinese People Liberation Army's activities in eastern Ladakh increased in the months of May and June, culminating in June 15 clashes in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed, the chiefs of the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force are meeting on a daily basis to coordinate the joint response.

Since then, the Indian Navy has been at the forefront of strategic signalling to the Chinese forces.

Signing of the Mutual Logistics Support Agreement in June with Australia gave the Indian Navy access to the strategically located Cocos and Keeling Islands in the southern Indian Ocean, which will enable ships and aircraft to keep watch on Chinese Navy ships and submarines entering the Indian Ocean Region.

Similarly, the agreement provides Australian ships and aircraft access to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, to extend their reach into the South China Sea.

The Indian Navy conducted four joint exercises with foreign navies during the Galwan crisis to signal intent to the Chinese Communist Party Navy.

The India-Indonesia coordinated patrol was conducted along the maritime boundary line on June 15 by ships and aircraft of both nations, while Japanese and Indian Navy ships also jointly exercised in the Indian Ocean Region on June 27.

Passage exercises were also conducted with French Navy in June and between the Indian Navy's Eastern Fleet and US Navy's Nimitz Carrier Strike Group in July.

These joint exercises were an affirmation of the resolve of the global comity against China's recent aggressions. The combination of joint resolve on the Line of Actual Control coupled with strategic signalling at sea seems to have had the desired effect, for now.

With the disengagement at Ladakh slowing down, the Indian armed forces are aware that this could be long drawn-out affair.

"Adequate operational tempo tempered with maintenance of readiness of men and materiel is the order of the day," the official said.

While the Indian Army mobilised on a war-footing in Ladakh and other areas along the LAC, the Air Force has forward deployed its top-of-the-line aircraft.

Indian Navy deployed the P8I Poseidon aircraft to Ladakh to provide valuable intelligence on PLA's mobilisation on the LAC.

"Aptly named after the Greek god of the sea, the P-8I is an all-weather aircraft with latest sensors and weapons, and is a maritime domination platform," said a senior government official.

The cutting-edge performance of the aircraft has now prompted the Indian Navy to place orders for another 10 of these aircraft, which will soon increase its inventory to 18.

The Indian Navy is now set to induct the carrier-borne strike aircraft Mig-29K to fly combat air patrols along with Indian Air Force jets in Ladakh - a credit to the joint pilot training programme of the Indian armed forces.

The story has been published via a syndicated feed, only the headline has been changed

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/indian-na ... dian-ocean
________________________

2 hours back Baba ji writes on Twitter that LAC may be hot any time.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by k prasad »

I'm also wondering if the 'leak' on the MoD website that admitted Chinese transgressions and was then deleted within an hour wasn't just a simpull mistake wonlee situation but something more Chankian?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhik »

abhik wrote:
LakshmanPST wrote:...
Thanks, that clears a lot for me, they have essentially gobbled up ~80-100 Sq Km. And that PP15 road eventually joins up with the Galwan valley road, everything is nicely interconnected on the Chinese side. And our post there faces a pincer from the north as well as the east. And I was having wet dreams of an IA offensive there :x looks like we might actually be quite vulnerable here.

Any idea on our road connectivity to the posts in Gorga? All I see is a mostly dirt track until it meets the Phobrang-Pangong north shore road (of course this is based on imagery from 3 years ago).Only other way to reach would be along the river that joins shyok (~53 Km from Galwan as the crow flies) - no signs of any roads here though.
Just for reference these are the OSINT images for this area (from last couple of months):-
June 22: https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 0774615041
June 23: https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 3713430528
July 13: https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 7819808773
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhik »

pankajs wrote:https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... e-6541551/
India to China: Proposal to step back further is untenable, not acceptable
...
The Chinese forces, sources said, had stepped back from Finger 4 on the northern bank of the lake towards Finger 5, even as the Indian side agreed to step back by an equal distance towards its post near Finger 2. “But any further stepping back would mean vacating the Indian posts in the area and that was untenable,” sources said.
According to sources, the disengagement process followed so far — on PP14, PP15, PP17 and PP17A — was based on the principle of “mutual and equal” stepping back from friction points.
...
This is literally the Chinese taking two steps forward and one step back (rather 4 fingers forward and 1 back).
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by SSridhar »

Something has to give way, sooner than later. The first commander-level marathon meeting was on May 5 and there have been 5 meetings, there had been discussions between the two FMs (at least twice), two SRs and the WMCCs. Nothing has changed the ground level. If there are feelers from Xi, they will most certainly be rejected (or have already been done so) by Modi. The only way forward left is for IA to physically eliminate the aggressors/aggression. Can't see any other way.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by YashG »

Pressure on Chinese is increasing. The longer they dribble this, they will get more and more boiled.

Their best chance out of this would be to make some new status quo and cool down. Question is will Modi allow this. If the political fallout of this compromise is not a lot, he will and just buy his peace. At the end he needs time to fix his re-election, spend time on party work.

Because from Modi's POV - When Biden get elected, the liberal bench in washington will get more active. It will put pressure on Modi's agenda. He can deflect that pressure only if he doesnt have Chinese breathing down his neck. Even pre Laddakh, his original move was to keep Xi/China close enough to be able to deflect American pressure on his his domestic policies. That move has now gone turtle.

This calculation will not go well with jingos - but we jingos aren't numerous enough to vote anyone into or out of power. We're a strategic minority. Most people do not come to Bharat Rakshak to form their opinion. They hear it on media - which falls into line.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Prem Kumar »

SSridhar wrote:
It need not only be lack of space-based assets, but also interpretation skills, communication up the chain, decision-making etc.
Absolutely! Its likely an across-the-board failure. Lack of enough space/air assets, lackadaisical attitude towards China, focus on Pakis, misunderstanding of Chinese intent .... we can go on.

The Chinese pretending to do an exercise & intruding is like our movies of the 70s/80s where the hero, heroine & sidekick pose as the dance troupe in the villain's big party, mix sleeping pills in their drinks and take them down.

Am still waiting for the police to show up after the fight scene is over
williams
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by williams »

YashG wrote:Pressure on Chinese is increasing. The longer they dribble this, they will get more and more boiled.

Their best chance out of this would be to make some new status quo and cool down. Question is will Modi allow this. If the political fallout of this compromise is not a lot, he will and just buy his peace. At the end he needs time to fix his re-election, spend time on party work.

Because from Modi's POV - When Biden get elected, the liberal bench in washington will get more active. It will put pressure on Modi's agenda. He can deflect that pressure only if he doesnt have Chinese breathing down his neck. Even pre Laddakh, his original move was to keep Xi/China close enough to be able to deflect American pressure on his his domestic policies. That move has now gone turtle.

This calculation will not go well with jingos - but we jingos aren't numerous enough to vote anyone into or out of power. We're a strategic minority. Most people do not come to Bharat Rakshak to form their opinion. They hear it on media - which falls into line.
WADR Balakot happened right before the 2019 election that did not deter Modi to act. That time we all were saying the same thing. Modi will stop short of some strong military action. Secondly, the assumption Biden will win, based on whatever polls we see in August is plain naive. American's do not change wartime Presidents that easily and they are in a situation that is more than a war now. US liberal media wet dreams cannot become a reality. Not just yet. Finally, while we can be happy the world is supporting us now, none of them is going to do the dishes for us. All we can expect is some level of neutrality for the first few weeks of hostilities before things become serious and there is panic in Wallstreet. Plus there is a long list of non-jingo/semi jingo options that are available to prick the Chins before throwing the towel or starting the Armageddon.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by YashG »

williams wrote:WADR Balakot happened right before the 2019 election that did not deter Modi to act. That time we all were saying the same thing. Modi will stop short of some strong military action. Secondly, the assumption Biden will win, based on whatever polls we see in August is plain naive. American's do not change wartime Presidents that easily and they are in a situation that is more than a war now. US liberal media wet dreams cannot become a reality. Not just yet. Finally, while we can be happy the world is supporting us now, none of them is going to do the dishes for us. All we can expect is some level of neutrality for the first few weeks of hostilities before things become serious and there is panic in Wallstreet. Plus there is a long list of non-jingo/semi jingo options that are available to prick the Chins before throwing the towel or starting the Armageddon.
Balakot was a fabulous thing. I want Modi to not let it go without something of the same flavor, even if a tiny bit.

Biden win is no longer a mere wet dream. Its looking more and more a mathematical certainty. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... s-in-2016/ Some analysis on why Biden numbers are not fragile like Hillary's in 2016. The problem is US public aint seeing trump as a wartime president.

Anything other than a cool-down with lost territory - non-jingo, semi-jingo or jingo option is fine.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by chetak »

why is china so whiney in its tone.

Have they not realized as yet as to what is happening to them :mrgreen:

and it's not just the US, china's relations' are at their worst point in decades with many many countries.

Global Times@globaltimesnews China state-affiliated media · Aug 3

China-US relations are at their worst point in decades. From Huawei to TikTok, from Covid-19 to trade feud, from HK to S.China Sea, the US is lashing out at China on almost all fronts. But who bears the brunt of souring China-US ties? https://globaltimes.cn/content/1196571.shtml
Last edited by chetak on 08 Aug 2020 01:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by williams »

** Irrelevant post deleted **
Last edited by SSridhar on 08 Aug 2020 08:18, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: OT Post
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Indrajit »

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by LakshmanPST »

abhik wrote: Just for reference these are the OSINT images for this area (from last couple of months):-
June 22: https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 0774615041
June 23: https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 3713430528
July 13: https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 7819808773
These locations pertains to Hot-Springs and Kongka La...
For the record, all Chinese camps shown in these images are well inside Chinese side of Google Earth LAC. Even if we consider Indian claim LAC marked in those Chinese links shared by RaviB, these camps are on Chinese side only...
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