India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Locked
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by kit »

nam wrote:Just for perspective the Chinese defence budget for 2006, when they were 3T GDP... 35B! I understand there will element of under reporting.

They used to maintain a much larger force than us, with almost fully local weapon system

Our budget at 3T: 70B! There will element of inflation. However there is also how inefficient out defense spending is. Bar a sprinkle of induction with low numbers, we haven't augment any offensive capability compared to 2006. No mass BM or 155MM or modern fighters in numbers.

Despite this we have inflation in our defence budget..
That perspective is good , what India does not want is to over spend on defence and try make local and boost up defence manufacturing capabilities . Most in BRF want this or that to be bought but we have gross inefficiencies and the bureaucracy need to pruned down and made simpler
manjgu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2615
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 10:33

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by manjgu »

given scale of our requirements , india should be exporting and utilising that revenue stream to fund def modernisation..but alas ..har shaakh be ulu baithe hain ..anjame gulistan kya hoga.
g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4382
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.news18.com/news/india/disci ... 85561.html
‘Discipline Your Troops, Stop Provocative Acts’: China Tells India Onus of Galwan Clash is Not on Them
Sun Weidong, Chinese ambassador to India, has urged the Narendra Modi government to 'conduct a thorough investigation, hold the violators accountable, strictly discipline the frontline troops, and immediately stop all provocative acts to ensure such incidents will not occur again.'
NEWS18.COM, AUGUST 14, 2020

Nearly two months after China’s People’s Liberation Army assault teams attacked troops of the 16 Bihar Regiment killing 20 soldiers, Chinese ambassador to India, Sun Weidong, has said that the “onus is not on China” for the June 15 Galwan Valley incident.
According to an Indian Express report, the Chinese envoy penned his opinion in China-India review, a Chinese embassy’s magazine that is published in Delhi.
“If one analyses this incident carefully, it’s quite clear that the onus is not on China. The Indian side crossed the LAC for provocation and attacked the Chinese border troops. The Indian forces seriously violated agreements on border issues between the two countries and severely violated basic norms governing international relations,” Weidong wrote in the magazine.
He urged the Narendra Modi government to “conduct a thorough investigation, hold the violators accountable, strictly discipline the frontline troops, and immediately stop all provocative acts to ensure such incidents will not occur again.”
The savage combat in June, with few parallels in the history of modern armies, claimed the lives of 20 Indian soldiers, including 16 Bihar’s commanding officer, Colonel Santosh Babu, many because of protracted exposure to sub-zero temperatures.
.....
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 0DLLK.html
PLA still at LAC, India plans new ways to counter China’s wolf-warrior diplomacy
The situation in the Gogra-Hot Springs area near Kongka La is no different -- the PLA is where it transgressed, with an objective to come up to the Kugrang River, a tributary of the Shyok River.
Shishir Gupta, Aug 14, 2020

With the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) holding out on de-esclataion at some points of its transgressions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh -- Gogra-Hot Springs as well as Pangong Tso -- the Narendra Modi government is considering new ways to counter China and ensuring that the troops are back to their peacetime locations.
According to people familiar with the matter in the government and the military, contrary to China’s public posture that building trust with India is one of its diplomatic priorities, the PLA continues to sit on the green top of the Finger 4 feature on the north bank of Pangong Tso. This allows China a dominant sweep from Finger 3 to Finger 8. All the PLA has done is to vacate the saddle and the ridge beyond the brown top on the contested Finger 4.
The situation in the Gogra-Hot Springs area near Kongka La is no different -- the PLA is where it transgressed, with an objective to come up to the Kugrang River, a tributary of the Shyok River.
This obstinacy is matched only by the Chinese portrayal of even a routine meeting between the Indian ambassador to Beijing and a deputy director in the Foreign Affairs Commission as path-breaking, the people, none of whom wished to be identified, added. Meanwhile, they said, Beijing’s refrain about meeting India halfway is beginning to grate because “it is the PLA that is the aggressor, not the Indian army” as one official put it.
The official added that this would appear to be part of China’s strategy. “The Chinese projection of normalcy with India is a suggestion that New Delhi must accept the PLA ‘s aggression and move on with resuming diplomatic dialogue. This is totally unacceptable.”
...........
Gautam
suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4040
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by suryag »

REading and reflecting on our current situation increases my BP.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by pankajs »

That is because India tried to "normalize" transgression with phraseology like "differing perception" .. why are we now surprised?

While the template for such word jugglery was developed during the UPA times the NDA wholeheartedly adopted and endorsed it.
Prem Kumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4215
Joined: 31 Mar 2009 00:10

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Prem Kumar »

Every 2-bit Chinese writer is a "scholar"
Their diplomats are "wolf warriors"

What's next: their hackers are "black hat ninjas", their premier is "Kung Fu Panda"?
sanjayc
BRFite
Posts: 1091
Joined: 22 Aug 2016 21:40

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by sanjayc »

^^ China is a bully needling India. Bullies back off after getting a bloody nose. That is what China needs
the Narendra Modi government is considering new ways to counter China and ensuring that the troops are back to their peacetime locations.
This shows excessive desire for peace .. which is perceived as a weakness by bullies and thugs.
williams
BRFite
Posts: 874
Joined: 21 Jun 2006 20:55

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by williams »

Folks sorry for a long post. I think there is a lot of clutter in the information that is coming through and I am posting the summary of our standoff with the Chins so far.

1. Are we prepared to take on China in the TAR theatre given they are trying to change the status quo?
From official GOI channels: Yes but we will give diplomacy a chance. In the meantime, we will prepare for it, make emergency purchases, prepare for the winter, etc.
From the real experts: Yes, but be cautious, we should avoid larger escalation if possible.
Other voices: No can't do. Chinese have occupied our territory and will do it again. We don't have the military capacity. We just need to swallow our pride and take it.

2. Will GOI take military action if China does not budge?
From official GOI channels: Silent (They have to if we need to maintain some element of surprise)
From the real experts: We can and we should if necessary.
Other voices: GOI will not take any action. GOI is hiding the depth of the Chinese border incursion and Modi govt is not interested in fighting the Chinese they want peace at any cost..

Will other countries support our action diplomatically?
From official GOI channels: Yes
From the real experts: Yes
Other voices: Yes, but it is not worth anything

4: Will other countries including the US support us militarily?
From the official GOI channels: We are not asking for it but we have been gladly accepting intelligence inputs.
From the real experts: No except for maybe intelligence input.
Other voices: We should not do anything unless the US and other countries support us militarily. With the US elections, we will lose such support soon. Modi govt has miscalculated a lot.

The rest of the arguments are irrelevant but I will list them here:
1. We don't have a MIC like China and their GDP is so high, we are losers only.
2. We do emergency imports a lot and we need to provide domestic industries more orders. Where is the order of LCA, LCH etc
3. Our PSUs and Ordnance boards produce low-quality weapons, we should let the private industry provide us quality defense products.
4. Trump is losing US elections, we will lose US support soon. And there goes our plan to take on China
5. Chinese will storm us with their mijiles. Our population will not have the stomach to take it and we will lose only.
6. We need long-range mijiles. Our Agni series weapons are duds or we don't have the range. Chinese will use nukes what will we do?
5. Xi and his CMC cronies are super human villains, they can do a lot and we cannot do much.
7. Pakistan will attack us and let us do something to the Pakis. Chinese are too big.
8. We need to take China on trade. GOI is slow to improve our domestic manufacturing. Just decreasing trade deficit will scare China to go back.
9. Let us make some diplomatic statements like we no longer believe in one China policy.
g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4382
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by g.sarkar »

Self deleted.
Gautam
g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4382
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/294- ... 200814.htm
294 ITBP troops get DG's commendation for thwarting PLA
Source: PTI, August 14, 2020

In its first official account of the standoff between the two militaries, the ITBP revealed how its troops "not only effectively used shield to protect themselves but also responded fiercely to advancing PLA (Chinese People's Liberation Army) troops and brought the situation under control".
“The ITBP has recommended the names of 21 men who faced the Chinese during the face-offs and skirmishes in May-June this year for gallantry," it said.
"Also, 294 personnel have been awarded with the DG's commendation rolls and insignias by ITBP chief S S Deswal on the eve of Independence Day," the force said.
It said ITBP troops displayed the highest order of professional skills and “fought shoulder-to-shoulder and also brought the injured Indian Army troops to the rear”.
Twenty Indian soldiers were killed in a violent faceoff with the Chinese troops in the eastern Ladakh area on the intervening night of June 15-16.
While China has accepted that it also suffered causalities during these clashes, it has not given out exact numbers.
....
Gautam
mody
BRFite
Posts: 1362
Joined: 18 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: Mumbai, India

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by mody »

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/ch ... d=msedgdhp

China asking for a probe into Galwan incident and punishment for IA soldiers who "transgressed".
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by darshan »

Yes they should be punished by naming many areas of LAC after them and by receiving medals.
Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14331
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Aditya_V »

mody wrote:https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/ch ... d=msedgdhp

China asking for a probe into Galwan incident and punishment for IA soldiers who "transgressed".
Next they must give a deadline otherwise PLAAF aircraft should cross the LAC.
rajpa
BRFite
Posts: 437
Joined: 04 Aug 2004 09:35
Location: Chennai

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by rajpa »

suryag wrote:REading and reflecting on our current situation increases my BP.
It will take atleast a couple of years before this gets "resolved". So we just have to chill till then.

In these two years the following are very likely to happen:
1. Chinese economy should weaken significantly from global backlash
2. CPEC should become a distant dream, with Balochi/Sind movement taking the upper hand
3. Indian military procurement should reach a stable level for a limited two front skirmish

These events will significantly improve the situation for us. No need for any tactical premature ejaculation. This is going to require a long foreplay.
AshishA
BRFite
Posts: 543
Joined: 07 Feb 2018 22:10

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by AshishA »

Reports of ITBP being involved in a clash with PLA in Eastern Ladakh are coming in.

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1294290060012068865
AshishA
BRFite
Posts: 543
Joined: 07 Feb 2018 22:10

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by AshishA »

AshishAcharya wrote:Reports of ITBP being involved in a clash with PLA in Eastern Ladakh are coming in.

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1294290060012068865
Okay it was related to galwan clash not any new clash. ANI put out a tweet without context which led me to believe some new clash has happened. Mods please delete my post.
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7101
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by shyamd »

shyamd wrote:IA has issued stern warning to political estab

1) This needs political/diplomatic solution. i.e. Phone call to Xi
2) If green light is not provided, it is highly likely we will lose some more territory during winters (some locations are favourable to PLA)
Finally, it looks like pro-govt journos are coming out with the truth and what the IA has informed senior GOI officials.

PLA still at LAC, India plans new ways to counter China’s wolf-warrior diplomacy
With the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) holding out on de-escalation at some points of its transgressions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh -- Gogra-Hot Springs as well as Pangong Tso -- the Narendra Modi government is considering new ways to counter China and ensuring that the troops are back to their peacetime locations.
.....
The situation in the Gogra-Hot Springs area near Kongka La is no different -- the PLA is where it transgressed, with an objective to come up to the Kugrang River, a tributary of the Shyok River.
..........
“The Chinese projection of normalcy with India is a suggestion that New Delhi must accept the PLA ‘s aggression and move on with resuming diplomatic dialogue. This is totally unacceptable.”
...........
While another round of diplomatic parleys between the two countries at joint secretary-level are expected soon, Indian troops are now ready to call the PLA’s bluff, the Indian officials said. The Indian military has decided that the Ladakh transgressions are unacceptable, and this includes the hindrance to Indian Army patrols in the crucial Depsang Bulge area, they added.

But India has to play it cool, they said, adding that the PLA’s obstinacy in moving back may be designed to provoke a reaction from the Indian Army and use it to further escalate the situation along the LAC.
This is going to be one expensive winter - get ready for some new equipment programme funds to be diverted for Ladakh ops. Next few weeks will be critical.

Russian proposal.....

Kremlin renews push for Modi-Xi-Putin trilateral
China backs Russia’s offer to minimise tension, India yet to respond
PM is expecting PLA to fully pull back before any trilateral or else India comes out looking bad... Russia want a successful summit.. GOI saying if you want success then get PLA to pull back.. PLA saying happy to talk.

CPC inner circle is now openly calling for a small clash with US/allies to send message to the US.

Some tough decisions need to be made - all of them look bad.
Ashokk
BRFite
Posts: 1116
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Ashokk »

LAC stand-off: We expect China to sincerely work with us to achieve complete disengagement, MEA says
NEW DELHI: The India-China standoff in Ladakh entered its 100th day this week, and, with the disengagement having stalled, India’s envoy to China, Vikram Misri, met senior PLA officers in Beijing to explain India’s position on the border situation.
“Ambassador @VikramMisri today met Major General Ci Guowei, Director of the Office of International Military Cooperation of the Central Military Commission and briefed him on India’s stance vis-à-vis the situation on the borders in eastern Ladakh UT,” he tweeted.

Ambassador @VikramMisri today met Major General Ci Guowei, Director of the Office of International Military Coopera… https://t.co/g8nsWNtsqq
— India in China (@EOIBeijing) 1597392025000


Misri’s meeting comes even as an unsigned article in the Chinese embassy bulletin quotes the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi blaming India for the Galwan clash of June 15, asking India to conduct an investigation into the incident, “hold violators accountable, strictly discipline frontline troops & immediately stop provocative acts.”
This, Indian officials say, is China’s usual tactic of blaming India for actions that its own troops had taken.
In Beijing, Misri has been meeting think tanks, foreign ministry officials in Beijing to apprise them of India’s views. Earlier this week, Misri met Liu Jianchao, deputy director of the office of the CPC Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission, an influential official in the party. The idea behind these meetings is to let the Chinese know how important the border resolution is for India, and how a prolonged standoff could completely crater the bilateral relationship.
Questioned, MEA spokesperson said “some progress (on disengagement) had earlier been made”, highlighting the current impasse.
“While we would like the ongoing disengagement process to be completed at the earliest, it is important to bear in mind that achieving this requires agreed actions by both sides. We, therefore, expect that the Chinese side to sincerely work with us towards the objective of complete disengagement and de-escalation and full restoration of peace and tranquillity in the border areas,” he said.
Another round of military commanders’ talks will be held next week, which will be followed by another meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination (WMCC).
The Chinese embassy bulletin adds, “The adventurism of the Indian Army seriously violated agreements on border issues between the two countries and severely violated basic norms governing international relations.”
The only thing Indians and Chinese agree on is that the Galwan clashes broke the agreement of June 6 between the military commanders, though both sides have blamed the other. Indian officials say that while the Indian troops were surprised in the clash, Chinese troops came armed with reinforced sticks with nails and stones wrapped in barbed wire.
The MEA spokesperson stressed the importance of “complete disengagement along the India-China border areas.” This, he said, was “in accordance with the agreement of the Special Representatives of India and China that early and complete disengagement of the troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and de-escalation from India-China border areas in accordance with bilateral agreement and protocols and full restoration of peace and tranquillity was essential for the smooth overall development of bilateral relations.”
The MEA spokesperson said the “re-deployment of troops to their regular posts “can be done only through mutually agreed reciprocal actions.” This is a reference to the fact that India has refused to de-escalate until Chinese troops completely disengage in Pangong Tso and Gogra-Hot Springs areas.
Reiterating the foreign minister’s comments to an interview in TOI, the spokesperson quoted him as saying, “the state of the border and the future of our ties, cannot be separated”.
Seems our diplomats are convinced that a normal relationship is still possible with China. Maybe we could send them a few dossiers for good measure.
suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4040
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by suryag »

Ashokk sir is there a comprehension problem here. The last sentence clearly states future of our ties are contingent upon the state of the border being resolved.
Ashokk
BRFite
Posts: 1116
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Ashokk »

suryag wrote:Ashokk sir is there a comprehension problem here. The last sentence clearly states future of our ties are contingent upon the state of the border being resolved.
Suryag sir, while we keep repeating “the state of the border and the future of our ties, cannot be separated” the actions by our diplomatic corps on the ground seem to be quite the opposite. Our ambassador is going around trying to convince PLA officers and other officials in Beijing as if they are dealing with a normal democratic country. Are we still thinking that the actions on the border are unilateral actions by local PLA officers without sanction from the top? Or do we think that there are parties with dissenting opinions in Beijing who might somehow prevail on the leadership there to accept our point of view? How is it different from sending dossiers to our neighbors on the west. Please let me know what I am missing as I am not very "chunkian". :mrgreen:
Vivek K
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2931
Joined: 15 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Vivek K »

We show weakness and inexperience in handling the enemy at the LAC. Do we really think that talks will help to solve the issue? Really? Is that why China has invested trillions of dollars in its armed forces? So that it could get to talk?

Seems like MEA has no stomach for the fight thrust upon India. We want a solution? Then attack the enemy's underbelly or be ready to. Display your fangs if you have any and get ready to strike. Begging for disengagement does not work - that IA already found the answer to. Overwhelming, asymmetric response does.

The time for talking has washed down Galwan. Pick your target and get ready to or go ahead and attack it/occupy territory on the enemy's side. Talks show that India is weak and unprepared to go to war. The only solution this time will be war or extreme brinkmanship.
abhik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3090
Joined: 02 Feb 2009 17:42

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhik »

AshishAcharya wrote:
AshishAcharya wrote:Reports of ITBP being involved in a clash with PLA in Eastern Ladakh are coming in.

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1294290060012068865
Okay it was related to galwan clash not any new clash. ANI put out a tweet without context which led me to believe some new clash has happened. Mods please delete my post.
There were multiple clashes in May-June timeframe, just that it is coming out now.
https://theprint.in/defence/multiple-india-china-clashes-occurred-along-lac-in-may-and-june-some-lasted-all-night/481646/
Sources in the defence and security establishment told ThePrint that there were numerous physical clashes and brawls between the troops at various locations including multiple patrolling points and along rivulets and nallahs.
Even when the ITBP troops fought the whole night, they received minimal casualties and ensured fitting replies to the “stone-pelters of the PLA”, the statement said.

“At places, they gave a determined stand-off for about 17 to 20 hours throughout the intervening nights,” the force said.

“Due to the high altitude training and maneuver experience of the force in the Himalayas deployments, the ITBP troops kept the PLA troops at bay and due to the all out and befitting response of ITBP jawans at almost all fronts, many areas were safeguarded in the hyper sensitive areas,” it added.
suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4040
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by suryag »

Ashokk sir I dont believe our MEA is pussyfooting here or some chanakian theory here. I believe it is a calibrated escalation. Lets look at the steps

1. Numerous Chai-biskoot sessions between IA/MEA/NSA and the PRC counterparts, but nowhere they are saying all is good like what happened post Dokla
2. Action or reaction to Galwan delivered
3. Increased IAF deployment
4. Modi ji's Veera bhogya Vasundhara speech
5. RN ji's constant visits to the border areas
6. Tanks deployment
7. IN deployment
8. Growing import ban list
9. Creating a coalition with US, Japan and Taiwan
10. Visits of the chiefs to the forward areas and exhorting the ground cadre to be alert and be prepared.
11. Upping the ante on investment options for manufacturers in PRC

What we dont know is
1. Whats the real story on 2-front reality
2. How strong are we or how much capability to accomplish our objectives if we initiate action. Do we need to wait for winter to set in ?
3. BTW, I also dont know what the objectives would be if action was to be initiated
4. Impact of US elections on this entire mess
5. How bad is our finances due to the CovID impact
6. Do we have any other plans on GB etc that will get derailed if we start action on this front.

Am sure no sensible Govt would do items 1-11 if we were planning to back off or dont have stomach for a war. Having said the above we know wars are expensive, outcome is unpredictable and should be a last resort however, am not sure what we are waiting for given the intransigence of CCP/PLA. Would have liked to see a couple of deadly direct warnings from Modiji but jingos like us will then ask for Rambo style action.

But one thing that GoI should and is probably aware of is we have great hopes from Modi ji and we know he wont return to status quo unless PLA/CCP retreat to pre-April ground positions. It is just that it is frustrating while we wait, lets hope we do the right thing without being prejudiced by needless fear.

Jai hind
Vivek K
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2931
Joined: 15 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Vivek K »

There is a game people play that I cannot recall the name of. You put one fire and another starts. You put that out and still it starts elsewhere. Instead of putting out fires, why shouldn't India start one out where the enemy is weak?

Item 2 is exactly what I'm saying. Do you think it matters to PLA if they lost a 100 men?
Item 3 - is a penalty for IAF - increased sorties means increased attrition too. And does IAF have the luxury of additional airframes? Right now we're celebrating the addition of 3 fighters! Shows how precarious the position is.
Items 4 and 5 - Talk is cheap. The morale of the forces is good so RM's visits only helps to keep that up.
Item 6, 7: Real actions that help.
Item 8 - What %age of China's global output does India consume?
Item 9 - Significant step.
Item 10 - What is new about that? Service chiefs need to do that anyway
Item 11 - Same answer as 8.

Items 6,7 and 9 are significant. The rest are for morale or for public support.
What we dont know is
1. Whats the real story on 2-front reality
2. How strong are we or how much capability to accomplish our objectives if we initiate action. Do we need to wait for winter to set in ?
3. BTW, I also dont know what the objectives would be if action was to be initiated
4. Impact of US elections on this entire mess
5. How bad is our finances due to the CovID impact
6. Do we have any other plans on GB etc that will get derailed if we start action on this front.
When we don't know something, one usually expects the worst.

Item 1 - Do we want to wait to find out? A better question would - what is our preparedness for a 2 front war? But is this the time for that question or has that time passed?
Item 2 - I hope we know the answer to this. And if the answer is that we are not strong enough - then prayer is not the answer. Tactical surprise and pre-emptive strikes is the only way out. No way will you have either all 36 Rafales or the 33 additional roosi fighters. If some urgency had been shown, perhaps LCA deliveries could have been expedited. In either case, destruction of the enemy's offensive capability would degrade their capacity to attack effectively at a time of their choosing.
Item 3 - I'm hoping you're speaking for yourself and the forces have identified objectives.
Item 6 - Do we care more about GB then our current land? No. So forget about GB - concentrate on Tibet and smoke out Pakistan.

Marwaris have a saying - Cut your losses today so that they don't increase tomorrow. Instead of reacting to pin pricks, India should give some pin pricks to Cheen. Occupy some territory and have them respond.
Ashokk
BRFite
Posts: 1116
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Ashokk »

suryag wrote:Ashokk sir I dont believe our MEA is pussyfooting here or some chanakian theory here. I believe it is a calibrated escalation. Lets look at the steps...
Suryag sir, I am well aware of the steps being taken by the government to increase the pressure on the Chinese and fully support them. My point is that the actions of our ambassador in Beijing does not seem to fit with the statement made by the EAM. On one hand we say that “the state of the border and the future of our ties, cannot be separated” on the other hand we run around trying to find someone in Beijing who is willing to listen to our point of view. Do our diplomatic corps think that such behavior will earn us respect in the eyes of the Chinese? I am afraid that all this old world diplomacy is lost on our eastern neighbor, just look at the way their ambassador behaves in New Delhi. If we want to give a strong message to Cheen, the whole government machinery needs to work together which includes the diplomatic corps. The Chinese are probably watching our antics in Beijing with bemusement.
suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4040
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by suryag »

Ashokk Sir we are doing the right things as per book, it is always good to know what the other side is thinking. I like RB's quote here "suniye sab ki kariye mann ki". Give some credit to our MEA folks, when they talk cant they understand what is in between the lines, what is true/lies ? would you not be able to form a different picture as to the thinking of the various constituents of the establishment ?

Anyways, we have no choice to wait, one thing for sure my respect for Modi ji will not reduce if we dont have action(there surely might be a good enough reason if he ever decides to do so) but agree it is frustrating every day seeing the insults being heaped upon us. Even a cat when pushed to the corner fights ferociously and we are talking about the Indian Armed Forces here who are known for their ferocity so no choice but to wait and take insults from this neo-shishupala
arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4570
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by arshyam »

We credit the Chinese with fifth generation warfare or some such crap, wherein they say some things to lull the enemy and strike elsewhere where the enemy is not looking. They are also vaunted to try to achieve multiple aims during any engagement with a different country.

But we don't realize that we are doing that to them this time around. Not everything can be settled by a military confrontation, especially if it is at a time and place of the enemy's choosing. Something will be done at the LAC, but maybe not in the timeframe jingos here have. But the economic measures being taken in a trickle (so they constantly have to deal with new policies and hurdles) shows that GoI is indeed serious and will not let things go that easily. Regarding a military response, please recall FM Manekshaw's determination to bide time till the winter as the monsoon is not a fighting season. One wonders what pressures he would have been under during the intervening months. So let's see.
williams
BRFite
Posts: 874
Joined: 21 Jun 2006 20:55

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by williams »

Some insights into cost of winter deployment:

https://thewire.in/security/indian-army ... -expensive
manjgu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2615
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 10:33

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by manjgu »

Elected govt cant be as trigger happy as jingos on brf want ... covid...monsoon..a govt in its 1st year ..economy. ... state of mil readiness... they have to factor in so many variables..
Prasad
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7793
Joined: 16 Nov 2007 00:53
Location: Chennai

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Prasad »

Current SW monsoon is still on. After a brief period we'll have the NE monsoon. Last few years that has also been pretty devastating in many areas. So until December, the IAF & IN might be needed for relief ops within the country, however minimal it might be.
A steady twisting of the Chinese arm out of the indian economy is a result many will be willing to take, to reverse the unhealthy dependence on Chinese imports built up in the last 15 years. Cutting out Huawei out of 5G will be a massive step and I'm sure we'll do it. Anti dumping/higher duties on led panels,tvs, other imports, registration of electronic items, will be a significant permanent change for the better. Within the next six months though, we need to augment armor, isr, heli capabilities so that we can attempt anything (if at all possible given the inhuman terrain and weather).
schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1773
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by schinnas »

China is going through much bigger floods than India. This cannot be a primary deciding factor. India would lose the option to go kinetic if it does not react now. Otherwise, this becomes the new status quo and we will be seen as the aggressor.

Any local flood in any state can be handled by local administration, NDRA and coast guard with few rescue helis on loan from navy. The floods in Assam are already receding and no major cyclone is in the pipeline.
schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1773
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by schinnas »

Our PM gave them a public and clear warning from Ladakh. That leaves us with only one option, however difficult it is. We cannot afford to let go now.
arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4570
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by arshyam »

I don't think flood/rain relief efforts are the primary issue - we have enough resources to handle all that, now that a dedicated NDRF exists and is generally well provisioned. The main point about the monsoon is that supplying the border at Arunachal is going to be very difficult due to the thick mountainous forests rights from the plains all the way to the LAC. Roads would be subject to landslides, poor visibility, risk of accidents blocking supply lines, etc. The plains of Assam are not that easy to deal with either, given the Brahmaputra is prone to flooding every monsoon (it is actually a natural process as the river has a huge flood plain), and one has to cross multiple large rivers to even reach the Brahmaputra valley. So we have to deal with all this, while there is hardly any rain on the Tibet side, so Chinese supply lines stay intact. The Ladakh area is of course different, given that it is a high altitude desert, but the route via foothills in HP/J&K would again be under the vagaries of the monsoon. Yes, we have built roads, bridges, tunnels, etc. so we are not impaired too much, and that infra will definitely help us defend our territory, but for going on the offensive it may not be the best of times.

Another big factor reg the monsoons is air support - given the already difficult terrain, heavy stormy conditions would impact close air support for sure, and to some extent, air warfare at the theatre level. Same goes for the air warriors - they'll definitely do their best, but would be fighting the elements as well as the enemy while supporting a ground offensive.

In short, for an offensive action, any power would like to use all the advantages it gets, including the climate. One can say let's do a short surprise attack in Ladakh with limited objectives, as the Chinese may not expect us to do anything now due to the above reasons. Sure, that **may be** feasible, but we may not be able to control the spread of the conflict and would be under a severe disadvantage if the Chinese attacked us at Arunachal - if I were them, that's what I'd do as my logistics tail is unaffected by the weather. They don't have to come down like in '62 as they would get bogged down due to the same conditions, but can respond tactically at the LAC and try a limited offensive maximizing their logistics tail. So the services/govt have to factor in all this before going kinetic.
arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4570
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by arshyam »

schinnas wrote:Our PM gave them a public and clear warning from Ladakh. That leaves us with only one option, however difficult it is. We cannot afford to let go now.
Yes saar, agreed. But we are not letting it go, going by the piecemeal announcements on the economic front that definitely hurts them. We could have announced all these measures in one shot, but public memory being short, the effect of those measures would have worn off. By taking one step at the time, we keep stirring the pot and them guessing about our next move. The public is also kept engaged about the issue.
arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4570
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by arshyam »

There was a talk hosted by Nitin Gokhale and Gen Anbu and another general whose name I forget. Both had commanded formations in Arunachal (Gen Anbu - IV Corps, the other general - 3 Div). They explained the ground situation in Arunachal in detail, and one important point that came out of the talk was that out of 40+ passes, only 5-6 passes stay open through the year, and a few are permanently snowbound. That leaves around 30 passes we'll have to defend against any Chinese incursions till Oct, after which, the weather takes care of them for us. Why would we not use that to our advantage? This is still mid-Aug, so that leaves another 2 months before the weather becomes conducive to us.
k prasad
BRFite
Posts: 962
Joined: 21 Oct 2007 17:38
Location: Somewhere over the Rainbow
Contact:

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by k prasad »

^^^ Closing of the passes also closes our opportunity for counter-attacks, in opening new fronts. Not sure how big of an issue this might be, but a lot of commentators have mentioned that our ground situation in AP vis-a-vis China is not bad.

The winter logistics for Chinese forces in Ladakh are better than for us, so a winter assault might be easier for them, especially if it means their forces from AP can be thinned out and moved to Ladakh. We could do the same as well, but logistics movement from the Eastern to the Northern theatre are much more difficult.

The closure of action potential on the eastern sector during winter could help or hurt us, depending on whether we want to leave the option of an alternative front open, or seek to limit the conflict to the Ladakh sector.
Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14331
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Aditya_V »

This year the Rohtang tunnel is near complete, we will use it, it has a significant impact on our supply of winter logistics. Climbing up from Kargalik to Aksai CHin is not easy for them or use supply by trucks from Lhasa. This winter thier supply logistics will actually more difficult.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by pankajs »

The tunnel is complete while the finishing is under progress with a target date of September 2020 i.e. the tunnel is usable even now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgIY-cWXKSc
Rohtang Tunnel: World’s longest highway tunnel above 10,000 feet

Infact, it is fit enough for VIP inspection ...

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/r ... nmYdI.html
Rohtang Tunnel to open by September-end
Defence minister Rajnath Singh was to inspect the work at the tunnel last month, but due to the stand-off between India and Chinese troops, this trip was cancelled. Rajnath is likely to visit Rohtang tunnel in August-end.
k prasad
BRFite
Posts: 962
Joined: 21 Oct 2007 17:38
Location: Somewhere over the Rainbow
Contact:

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by k prasad »

There's still a number of passes needed to be traversed along the Leh-Manali highway, and Rohtang is just the first of them. And then, going from Leh to SSN requires passing through a few more very high, snow-bound passes.
manjgu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2615
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 10:33

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by manjgu »

Aditya_V wrote:This year the Rohtang tunnel is near complete, we will use it, it has a significant impact on our supply of winter logistics. Climbing up from Kargalik to Aksai CHin is not easy for them or use supply by trucks from Lhasa. This winter thier supply logistics will actually more difficult.
Completion of rohtang tunnel will not have any effect on winter logistics imho ... there are v high passes ahead.. rohtng tunnel was more to provide 365 days connectivity to lahul spiti. They shuld have made zojila tunnel as well.
During winters if we damage their airstrips in tibet not sure if they can repair it easily? Experts pl weigh in
Locked