India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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nam
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by nam »

For those asking for immediate military action, what should be the objective? Push them back from lake & depsang? What next? Guard every inch on LAC, otherwise Chinis can intrude again.

The fact of the matter is GoI (irrespective of the party in power) has been caught in "there will be no war" delusional peace. They have just spend money to import shiny toys as demanded by the services, as political response, as they were confident of no war.

Now they have suddenly woken up to see how tangled we are with the Chini exports and unprepared to deal with a two large fron "loc" situation. I am not talking about one off action against the Chinese, but defending two VERY LONG borders.

We cannot make LAC another LoC. It is cost prohibitive. GoI have been throwing men at LC defending every inch, as the threat was assumed to be only from Pak. This was manageable, cost wise.

Infiltration on west and salami on east, cannot be defended by "every inch". This requires technology, in mass, using local production to be cost effective. And we have spectacularly failed in this.

A realization is dawning that it might be "no peace, no war", even during peace time.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by k prasad »

manjgu wrote: During winters if we damage their airstrips in tibet not sure if they can repair it easily? Experts pl weigh in
I'm no expert, but here's my 2 Naya paisas...

I don't think we can adequately damage their airfields enough to cause any major dent in their capabilities, just as they can't do the same to ours, as a retd Air Marshal mentioned in the news a week or so back. Their airfields are fairly far away from ladakh, so I'm not sure we have enough cruise missile assets to cause major disruption. In any case, given the altitude and distance of their airfields from SSN, their air combat capabilities are probably limited anyway. No point wasting valuable strike assets or risking deep strike aircraft and pilots on these.

The bigger fish will probably be the railway lines and strategic bridges along the G-219. As much as the terrain on the Tibet side is somewhat better than in Ladakh, the G-219 around the Tinet-Aksai Chin-Xinjiang area does pass through fairly treacherous terrain where we could target supply convoys, assuming we have precision strike assets (esp Brahmos). But that's just my (quite uninformed) opinion :-)
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Kakarat »

https://twitter.com/livefist/status/1294562952629035008
In 20 minutes, we're posting first videos just in of the Light Combat Helicopter on its current deployment in Ladakh. (Used with permission, before you ask!).


Image
Aditya_V
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Aditya_V »

Stupid question- is the landing gear of the LCH retractable?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Kakarat »

Aditya_V wrote:Stupid question- is the landing gear of the LCH retractable?
No
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by williams »

nam wrote:For those asking for immediate military action, what should be the objective? Push them back from lake & depsang? What next? Guard every inch on LAC, otherwise, Chinis can intrude again.
Very good question. Let me attempt to answer it.

1. Send a message to the Chins this kind of annual exercise to intrude into LAC and change the status quo will no longer be tolerated and they will have to bear costs. To that end destroy some of those border posts, infrastructure and occupy some of the territories that can give our troops an advantage. This will enable us to watch future such intrusions and respond in kind.

2. Remove any observational capacity the Chins may have to interdict our DS-DBO road. In spite of the difficulty, we will have to make sure this road is operational at all costs. And whatever infrastructure we built here should never be questioned.

3. Destroy their logistics capabilities - Food and ammunition storage facilities, power plants, bridges, tunnels, radar stations, etc.

Now Chins will counter attack for sure. Our biggest advantage is the mountains and we should stay in the mountains. Any counter-attack can be very well defended in most areas. There are a few places we are at the disadvantage, those are the places we should focus and occupy.

Then prepare for larger escalation. We have the IN and western front forces. We just need to play defensive here with the threat to a larger response if the Chins try anything more funny like using the nukes.

Results
1. The world will see that all these copy-paste Chinese equipment can be countered.
2. Chins will think 4 times before doing these kinds of casual intrusion.
3. Our perspective on LAC can become stronger in future negotiations
4. Chinese public will see that a complex democracy like India can also be strong inspite of criminal freedom provided to its citizens.
5. Ultimately it will burst the perspective ballon the Chins have created that they are too powerful to mess with.
6. We will also shut up most of the liberal propagandists on our side making our masses have a inflated belief in Chinese power.

Costs
1. There will be military and civilian casualities. It will be bad, but it is better than letting thugs enter into our house and willy nilly bully us.
2. We will see some depletion of our assets and equipment for sure. But it will help the case of more efficient domestic production of weapon systems and more power to the decision makers who really matter in this regard. It is a reset we need very badly.
3. Our economy is bad. But it is more of a demand side issue than supply side issue. Such escalations will actually help improve demand if the policies are set right
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by nam »

The assumption here is that any military action by us will be "short & localized". Any war with the Chinis may or may not be short, but it will not be localized. It could as well be a two front war.

Even if we achieve whatever Pangong or Depsang objectives, why should China accept defeat? It may decide to continue the war and bring in Pak as well.

War is not decided by own objectives. It is decided by your enemy's will to continue the fight.

The issue is, war at this time may not give us an ideal outcome. And the ideal outcome for us is to NOT make LAC another LoC, with 10's of divisions holding a 3500km disputed defensive line, 24/7, after all the bloodshed.

The current standoff is not a problem just for us. PLA has to hold the intruded line even in winter, otherwise we will move in. I have no issue going for a war, but we should be clear what we want to do and is it achievable. It cannot be just pushing PLA to Finger 8 or out of depsang plains.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhik »

Folks who are suggesting that we should not do anything kinetic, should also have the honesty to admit that the areas the Chinese have grabbed are gone. No need to come up with chunkian "intellectual" discourse or theories like the Chinese will freeze over in the winter.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhik »

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 3973272581
d-atis
@detresfa_
Indian media reports suggest the PLA #China has begun drawing up Fibre-Optic cables to its frontlines positions part of the #IndiaChinaFaceOff, coupled with earlier spotted power lines in the same areas the move could greatly enhance both manned & unmanned all weather operations
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfiWpn-UcAAV90h?format=jpg
Haven't seen any reports stating as such, but interesting if true, as always the Chinese come prepared, won't be surprising if the end up building one of their high density apartments in some of the grey zones.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by SidSoma »

abhik wrote:Folks who are suggesting that we should not do anything kinetic, should also have the honesty to admit that the areas the Chinese have grabbed are gone. No need to come up with chunkian "intellectual" discourse or theories like the Chinese will freeze over in the winter.
I think that the answer is somewhere in between.

1. There are still a ton of non kinetic actions that we can take. Like warn of strikes on CPEC in PoK, reject one China policy, Openly critise the South China sea policy. etc etc.
2. Kinetic need not be done against the chinese alone, it can be done against the Pakis as well
3. We can grab some land in the Sikkim or Arunachal region as well.

Well, I think there are options, we are just waiting for the expression of Political will...... and we are waiting to see it.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Deans »

When we talk of taking action against China, I'm not sure we are looking at this the right way.

While they are occupying our territory, which is not an acceptable situation, I don't believe the onus is on us to evict them, or initiate military
action. The question to ask is weather China's gains are more than their losses.

China's `gain' is physical control of 8 km of the Pangong Tso fingers. This was territory where we had no presence (barring patrols that were
less frequent than the Chinese) and no infrastructure. It is not of as much military value as other parts of the LAC in Ladakh.
They have possibly gained a couple of sq km in the Gogra-Hot springs area too.

To achieve this - it has cost them the mobilisation and long term deployment of 2 divisions (more will have to be deployed if this gets
serious). It has caused GOI to take a series of measures to improve our military readiness, which otherwise might have been delayed for years.
It will cause more economic harm to China than to India. If we play our card right, the economic actions against China, can lead to a resurgence of Indian industry. The opposite is true for China - India standing up to them can have a domino effect with other countries joining in.

China's action has also also a larger than ever proportion of public opinion (reflected in political statements) that regards China as our principal adversary and not Pakistan. It has also increased India's engagement with the Anti China coalition (US, Japan,Taiwan) to levels than would not have been imagined a year ago. China has made an enemy of us, in additional to several other countries with whom their relationship is at an all time low.
They can only retain their allies by throwing increasing amounts of money at them (which they will be less able to afford and which will give diminishing returns). The longer this lasts the more all the above will be irreversible.
It is for China to figure out if this is the price they are willing to pay to squat in Pangong Tso.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by RaviB »

SidSoma wrote:
I think that the answer is somewhere in between.

1. There are still a ton of non kinetic actions that we can take. Like warn of strikes on CPEC in PoK, reject one China policy, Openly critise the South China sea policy. etc etc.
2. Kinetic need not be done against the chinese alone, it can be done against the Pakis as well
3. We can grab some land in the Sikkim or Arunachal region as well.

Well, I think there are options, we are just waiting for the expression of Political will...... and we are waiting to see it.
We have been a bit diffident about a lot of the things but we did start doing some of the things in a low key way. The Chinese get the message.

For instance, there is always a token statement supporting one China policy that all governments are supposed to make in joint communiques with China. We stopped doing this in 2011 I think. We did not have relations with Taiwan earlier but we have had a de facto embassy in Delhi for at least 15 years or more and apart from quite comprehensive people to people contacts, we also have intelligence exchanges with them. We just upgraded the status of the envoy to Taiwan. Suraj ji mentioned elsewhere that a diplomatic recognition of Taiwan is something the Taiwanese might not even want.

We also support freedom of navigation operations in the SCS and have already made statements about settling territorial claims in line with international law, meaning supporting Philippines against China. We have ONGC working in the SCS with a recognition of Vietnamese authority in an area the China claims, etc.

A lot of this messaging is intended for China and it registers there. None of it makes headlines of course.

Even the status of Arunachal Pradesh was changed from NEFA and AFAIK we do occupy some posts beyond the McMahon line at some places.

I think we could also invite the Dalai Lama to a heads of state meeting, which is again doable and very strong messaging.

We could be doing a lot more, but let's not overlook what we've already been doing.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by nam »

We should create enough noise, so that a "face saving" deal become impossible. China as our own "Cold war" adversary is very important for us to growth our economy and military power.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by darshhan »

Deans wrote:When we talk of taking action against China, I'm not sure we are looking at this the right way.

While they are occupying our territory, which is not an acceptable situation, I don't believe the onus is on us to evict them, or initiate military
action.
The question to ask is weather China's gains are more than their losses.

China's `gain' is physical control of 8 km of the Pangong Tso fingers. This was territory where we had no presence (barring patrols that were
less frequent than the Chinese) and no infrastructure. It is not of as much military value as other parts of the LAC in Ladakh.
They have possibly gained a couple of sq km in the Gogra-Hot springs area too.

To achieve this - it has cost them the mobilisation and long term deployment of 2 divisions (more will have to be deployed if this gets
serious). It has caused GOI to take a series of measures to improve our military readiness, which otherwise might have been delayed for years.
It will cause more economic harm to China than to India. If we play our card right, the economic actions against China, can lead to a resurgence of Indian industry. The opposite is true for China - India standing up to them can have a domino effect with other countries joining in.

China's action has also also a larger than ever proportion of public opinion (reflected in political statements) that regards China as our principal adversary and not Pakistan. It has also increased India's engagement with the Anti China coalition (US, Japan,Taiwan) to levels than would not have been imagined a year ago. China has made an enemy of us, in additional to several other countries with whom their relationship is at an all time low.
They can only retain their allies by throwing increasing amounts of money at them (which they will be less able to afford and which will give diminishing returns). The longer this lasts the more all the above will be irreversible.
It is for China to figure out if this is the price they are willing to pay to squat in Pangong Tso.
What the hell? If we do not take any action in the near future against China, the whole credibility of Indian state will disappear. You have no idea of what you are suggesting. If anything instead of being reactive, we should initiate the action and not only across ladakh region but also wherever possible in Himachal, uttarakhand, sikkim and Arunachal regions.

Domestically anyways Indian state is a failure. Whether it is Kairana or Kashmir or Kerala, Bengal or Bangalore, Kamlesh Tiwari or Naveen, Indian state is a big disaster where interests and safety of Hindus is concerned. If they are failures on external front too, then what exactly is the justification of Indian state's continued existence? They might as well pack up and go home.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by shyamd »

shyamd wrote:IA has issued stern warning to political estab

1) This needs political/diplomatic solution. i.e. Phone call to Xi
2) If green light is not provided, it is highly likely we will lose some more territory during winters (some locations are favourable to PLA)
Finally, it looks like pro-govt journos are coming out with the truth and what the IA has informed senior GOI officials.

PLA still at LAC, India plans new ways to counter China’s wolf-warrior diplomacy
With the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) holding out on de-escalation at some points of its transgressions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh -- Gogra-Hot Springs as well as Pangong Tso -- the Narendra Modi government is considering new ways to counter China and ensuring that the troops are back to their peacetime locations.
.....
The situation in the Gogra-Hot Springs area near Kongka La is no different -- the PLA is where it transgressed, with an objective to come up to the Kugrang River, a tributary of the Shyok River.
..........
“The Chinese projection of normalcy with India is a suggestion that New Delhi must accept the PLA ‘s aggression and move on with resuming diplomatic dialogue. This is totally unacceptable.”
...........
While another round of diplomatic parleys between the two countries at joint secretary-level are expected soon, Indian troops are now ready to call the PLA’s bluff, the Indian officials said. The Indian military has decided that the Ladakh transgressions are unacceptable, and this includes the hindrance to Indian Army patrols in the crucial Depsang Bulge area, they added.

But India has to play it cool, they said, adding that the PLA’s obstinacy in moving back may be designed to provoke a reaction from the Indian Army and use it to further escalate the situation along the LAC.
This is going to be one expensive winter - get ready for some new equipment programme funds to be diverted for Ladakh ops. Next few weeks will be critical.

Russian proposal.....

Kremlin renews push for Modi-Xi-Putin trilateral
China backs Russia’s offer to minimise tension, India yet to respond
PM is expecting PLA to fully pull back before any trilateral or else India comes out looking bad... Russia want a successful summit.. GOI saying if you want success then get PLA to pull back.. PLA saying happy to talk.

CPC inner circle is now openly calling for a small clash with US/allies to send message to the US.

Some tough decisions need to be made - all of them look bad.

***Update***

India not to give in to any PLA demand over disengagement. Restore status quo ante is the mantra
Despite a number of meetings at both military and diplomatic level, the Xi Jinping regime is adamant on its positions and posture on LAC with all dialogues showing hardly any progress.
With the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) drawing up optical fibre cables to the transgressions spots at Pangong Tso and Gogra-Hot Springs, the Indian Army has decided to stay put at dominant positions on the ridge-lines of the Kugrang River till such time China does not restore status quo ante on the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

National security planners are quite clear that the May transgressions by PLA in the Ladakh sector had the approval of Chinese Central Military Commission (CMC), headed by General Secretary Xi Jinping, as it involved both the Tibetan as well as Xinjiang Military district with troops being inducted from outside the Western Theatre Command.

Deciding to put an end to Chinese unchecked expansionism, the Indian Army draws parallel to the 1984 Operation Meghdoot to claim Saltoro Ridge and Siachen Glacier. “We are used to sitting on heights since 1984. Even 36 years later, a full Indian brigade is sitting on the heights and guarding all the ingress points to Siachen glacier from any Pakistani attack. Any unilateral change in ground position on LAC is unacceptable to the Indian Army,” said an Indian diplomat.
“Whether China wants the $80 billion bilateral trade with India which is hugely tilted in favour of Beijing to steadily come down is a call that Xi Jinping’s military ambition has to take. The ball is in the Chinese court,” summed up another Indian diplomat.
Further measures across the spectrum (defence, security, econ, political) will be announced in due course... covert option will be used in a bigger way.

All PLA is doing is making sure significant economic resources are diverted from development...
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by SidSoma »

RaviB wrote:
We could be doing a lot more, but let's not overlook what we've already been doing.
Oh No Doubt that we are doing. However there is a lot more we could and should do. Although we have not taken part in BRI, we have to constantly announce that PoK is ours and CPEC is trespassing. We have to openly reject One China policy. We have to have some Naval exercise with Taiwan and Japan etc etc. Its time we esculated.....
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Nihat »

At this point, the GOI has clearly formed some kind of consensus regarding not taking open kinetic action. The enemy is prepared and we would be behind the curve, though I don't believe that we have no intentions on them.

The right place at the right time is most critical in this situation. While this stand off will be great for our industry and trade deficit with China, we do need to send a military message right up the central command.

IMHO this will be in the form of SF action in one form or another and may very well be far away from eastern Ladakh.

Let time tell us more on this and have faith in the most strong willed GoI in decades
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by darshhan »

Every situation cannot be resolved by use of special forces or other covert/clandestine means. And exactly what covert means are we going to use to force China to vacate occupied territory? Hijack their ocean freighters(should be anyways done)? Or kidnapping the daughter of Jinping himself? I am sorry but killing Chinese labourers in balochistan or Congo will not make any difference.

The point is covert operations have extremely limited utility until unless you start targeting senior cpc officials themselves.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by kumarn »

India should join OBOR. And the best way to do is to retake gilgit-baltistan.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by nam »

Firing the first bullet is the easiest part. Once the balloon goes up, every tom, dick & harry will talk peace and try to stop the war. Irrespective of the result of the war, we will end up making a deal where invariably the Chinis will be allowed back in our market. Not to mention back to non-alignment nonsense.

The best part of the standoff is that our media dominated the narrative. Everyone (except Paks) thinks the Chinis started it all. We are the innocent victim and standing against the bully. Our economic measures are making news and giving ideas to other countries.

The land is not going anywhere. No future Chinese weapon is going to overwhelm us in a war. It is more important to have powerful nations on our side, militarily and economically. We got to be the "global example of a victim of Chinese aggression".

There is money to be made, money which will allow us build the military. Just like the Chinis made money by being the "victim of Soviet aggression".
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by nam »

Watched some youtube documentary on Gulf war air campaign. Really good stuff on youtube.

Amazing stats. Iraq airforce deliberately tried to save their jets. And they were pretty successful. In a week of air campaign, involving 2000 jets, only 20 Iraqi jets were shotdown! 80% of airforce still intact!

Conclusion is that it is not easy to eliminate an alert airforce. The Egyptians were not alert. This gives me hope that Chini BM & CM strikes might create fireworks and some losses, however it will not give a knock out blow to IAF.

Large amount of fake HAS & storage forcing the Chini to allocate BM & CM towards them would greatly help. Just increase the number of targets on a airbase..
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by darshhan »

nam wrote:Firing the first bullet is the easiest part. Once the balloon goes up, every tom, dick & harry will talk peace and try to stop the war. Irrespective of the result of the war, we will end up making a deal where invariably the Chinis will be allowed back in our market. Not to mention back to non-alignment nonsense.

The best part of the standoff is that our media dominated the narrative. Everyone (except Paks) thinks the Chinis started it all. We are the innocent victim and standing against the bully. Our economic measures are making news and giving ideas to other countries.

The land is not going anywhere. No future Chinese weapon is going to overwhelm us in a war. It is more important to have powerful nations on our side, militarily and economically. We got to be the "global example of a victim of Chinese aggression".

There is money to be made, money which will allow us build the military. Just like the Chinis made money by being the "victim of Soviet aggression".
All this is your opinion. Those who can fight will fight. Economic prosperity will only give you a very limited amount of respect. So is the case with various technological achievements especially in nuclear and aerospace sectors.

The only way to gather serious respect and hence achieve your geopolitical goals is by fighting and shedding blood(both your own as well as your enemies'). This is what America does. This is what Russia does. This is what even France does on a smaller scale. This is also what history suggests.

In case you do not have it in you to fight for eg lacking in courage. Then it is better to settle in a role akin to current day Germany or Italy or Japan and shed all pretensions to occupy an expansive role on a global level. In this scenario it will be better to further limit our defence budget plus military should be downsized. Instead that money should be given to an ally like US who will fight on our behalf. Sure they will want that their leftist wokes and evangelicals have free run in this country in return and possibly within one decade you will have a church infested wonderland full of gays, trannies and paedophiles.

And by the way what is this thinking that says" one day we will have an ideal military after we complete our economic progress. Then we will have 1000 tejas aircrafts, 5000 howitzers, and 8 a/c carriers and then we will fight." It doesn't happen like that. You fight with what you have and then you improvise on fly. This is what both US and Russia did it in ww2. And China did not wait to become an economic power before it fought against US in Korean war in early 1950's. They did not hesitate before drawing out American blood or making their own sacrifices. Even your enemies respect you for that. That is why in less than 20 years Nixon was engaging China with mutual respect. And China was even admitted to UN with permanent seat on security council.

Cowards only get contempt. They are only prey for the predators. Fit to be robbed and raped. Unfortunately this is how the world works.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by RaviB »

darshhan wrote:Every situation cannot be resolved by use of special forces or other covert/clandestine means. And exactly what covert means are we going to use to force China to vacate occupied territory? Hijack their ocean freighters(should be anyways done)? Or kidnapping the daughter of Jinping himself? I am sorry but killing Chinese labourers in balochistan or Congo will not make any difference.

The point is covert operations have extremely limited utility until unless you start targeting senior cpc officials themselves.
If you look at past Chinese responses, the strongest impact has been not of the death of Chinese citizens, but to their abduction. As you say, they see their labour as dispensable, but hostage situations build up considerable pressure on them.

Prior to the Lal Masjid incident in Pakistan under Musharraf, local islamists had kidnapped a few "masseuses" from a parlour meant exclusively for local Chinese. The CCP would have ignored that incident as well, but it became public in China and there was considerable pressure on them to act. People actually sent vitamin bottles to the MFA and Ministry of Defense. The pressure then led them to pressure Mush and then the storming of Lal Masjid and all the islamist opposition that Mush later got.

So, I think if someone in Pakistan were to abduct a few Chinese engineers, and the news got out on the internet, it would put a lot of pressure on China to cut a secret deal. Also damage to Chinese machinery or infrastructure in the CPEC would have a cascading effect, making work on the projects difficult, maybe lead Napak Army to assign more soldiers to protect the Chinese, etc.

They do have their weaknesses which could be easily exploited. There is already considerable resentment in Pakistan against the Chinis for eating pork and frequenting unislamic establishments. All of this just needs a small trigger to set off a three sided fight between the awaam, Napak army and the Hans.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by RaviB »

nam wrote:Firing the first bullet is the easiest part. Once the balloon goes up, every tom, dick & harry will talk peace and try to stop the war. Irrespective of the result of the war, we will end up making a deal where invariably the Chinis will be allowed back in our market. Not to mention back to non-alignment nonsense.

The best part of the standoff is that our media dominated the narrative. Everyone (except Paks) thinks the Chinis started it all. We are the innocent victim and standing against the bully. Our economic measures are making news and giving ideas to other countries.

The land is not going anywhere. No future Chinese weapon is going to overwhelm us in a war. It is more important to have powerful nations on our side, militarily and economically. We got to be the "global example of a victim of Chinese aggression".

There is money to be made, money which will allow us build the military. Just like the Chinis made money by being the "victim of Soviet aggression".
This is very very true. I am worried many people see war as a question of honour or even a tool measuring contest. War has a price, and from what we see of the Balakot incident and how public opinion swung towards peace soon as Wg. Cdr. Abhinandan was captured, there is absolutely zero appetite for fighting a war. To start a war simply because the public is baying for blood would be highly irresponsible. Unless we have clear objectives and are willing to pay the price to achieve those in our soldiers' blood and the potential for losing the war, it does not make any sense to start something that only the enemy can end.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by RaviB »

darshhan wrote:
All this is your opinion. Those who can fight will fight. Economic prosperity will only give you a very limited amount of respect. So is the case with various technological achievements especially in nuclear and aerospace sectors.

The only way to gather serious respect and hence achieve your geopolitical goals is by fighting and shedding blood(both your own as well as your enemies'). This is what America does. This is what Russia does. This is what even France does on a smaller scale. This is also what history suggests.

In case you do not have it in you to fight for eg lacking in courage.

<snip>

And by the way what is this thinking that says" one day we will have an ideal military after we complete our economic progress. Then we will have 1000 tejas aircrafts, 5000 howitzers, and 8 a/c carriers and then we will fight." It doesn't happen like that. You fight with what you have and then you improvise on fly. This is what both US and Russia did it in ww2. And China did not wait to become an economic power before it fought against US in Korean war in early 1950's. They did not hesitate before drawing out American blood or making their own sacrifices. Even your enemies respect you for that. That is why in less than 20 years Nixon was engaging China with mutual respect. And China was even admitted to UN with permanent seat on security council.

Cowards only get contempt. They are only prey for the predators. Fit to be robbed and raped. Unfortunately this is how the world works.
States do not get respect for fighting but for winning. Fighting for individuals might be about courage, but for a state it is about calculation.
Fighting and shedding blood achieves absolutely nothing unless you win and achieve your objectives. Was Nehru courageous for telling the IA to "throw out the Chinese"? We suffered a defeat from which we suffered a reputation loss that lasted for decades. It was just plain irresponsible. What did the US achieve by starting a war in Afghanistan? They're struggling to end it somehow. China losing to Vietnam led them to focus on the economy and today they're in a much better place militarily.

Again victory does not go to the richest country, otherwise we would not have any wars. But the country that has the best mix of weapons, armed forces, strategy and resolve wins. Vietnamese had the strategy, trained forces and resolve, so they won. US in Afghanistan had fantastic weapons, well trained soldiers but they had terrible strategy and little resolve and there was never any clarity on objectives.

For us we have fantastic soldiers, adequate weapons, possibly some resolve but I'm not so sure about clarity of objectives, or strategy. Are we ready to fight a comprehensive war where the entire combination of our Armed Forces, covert capabilities and economic and diplomatic actions are well coordinated? I think we need some time to get up to the mark on that.

This is good reading on the inadequacy of our current doctrine https://carnegieindia.org/2020/08/10/ar ... -pub-82426
nam
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by nam »

RaviB wrote:
This is very very true. I am worried many people see war as a question of honour or even a tool measuring contest. War has a price, and from what we see of the Balakot incident and how public opinion swung towards peace soon as Wg. Cdr. Abhinandan was captured, there is absolutely zero appetite for fighting a war. To start a war simply because the public is baying for blood would be highly irresponsible. Unless we have clear objectives and are willing to pay the price to achieve those in our soldiers' blood and the potential for losing the war, it does not make any sense to start something that only the enemy can end.
Luckily for us, we don't have nutcases in our establishment, who go to war for honor & dignity like Pak & Turkey. We don't have a proper objective on LAC, the line is all vague along the 3400KM line and we have people calling for getting in to a attrition war against a 14T country, who have a massive local MIC. Even the US never went in to a one on one fight with the Soviets.

If LoC is anything to go by, then we will just end up with a inflated defense budget. No real gain, but thousands of Indian soldiers holding a 3400KM line. If we don't bother to clean up our local MIC and acquire capability to decimate Chinese forces on LAC, without LoC style defensive line, the we should NOT be getting in a war.

The land is going nowhere, India's claim will not change. Let relation with China be held hostage to PLA leaving the place. Prepare our-self militarily or anything else that is required.

When to fire the first round, sould be our choice.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by darshhan »

RaviB wrote:
darshhan wrote:
All this is your opinion. Those who can fight will fight. Economic prosperity will only give you a very limited amount of respect. So is the case with various technological achievements especially in nuclear and aerospace sectors.

The only way to gather serious respect and hence achieve your geopolitical goals is by fighting and shedding blood(both your own as well as your enemies'). This is what America does. This is what Russia does. This is what even France does on a smaller scale. This is also what history suggests.

In case you do not have it in you to fight for eg lacking in courage.

<snip>

And by the way what is this thinking that says" one day we will have an ideal military after we complete our economic progress. Then we will have 1000 tejas aircrafts, 5000 howitzers, and 8 a/c carriers and then we will fight." It doesn't happen like that. You fight with what you have and then you improvise on fly. This is what both US and Russia did it in ww2. And China did not wait to become an economic power before it fought against US in Korean war in early 1950's. They did not hesitate before drawing out American blood or making their own sacrifices. Even your enemies respect you for that. That is why in less than 20 years Nixon was engaging China with mutual respect. And China was even admitted to UN with permanent seat on security council.

Cowards only get contempt. They are only prey for the predators. Fit to be robbed and raped. Unfortunately this is how the world works.
States do not get respect for fighting but for winning. Fighting for individuals might be about courage, but for a state it is about calculation.
Fighting and shedding blood achieves absolutely nothing unless you win and achieve your objectives. Was Nehru courageous for telling the IA to "throw out the Chinese"? We suffered a defeat from which we suffered a reputation loss that lasted for decades. It was just plain irresponsible. What did the US achieve by starting a war in Afghanistan? They're struggling to end it somehow. China losing to Vietnam led them to focus on the economy and today they're in a much better place militarily.

Again victory does not go to the richest country, otherwise we would not have any wars. But the country that has the best mix of weapons, armed forces, strategy and resolve wins. Vietnamese had the strategy, trained forces and resolve, so they won. US in Afghanistan had fantastic weapons, well trained soldiers but they had terrible strategy and little resolve and there was never any clarity on objectives.

For us we have fantastic soldiers, adequate weapons, possibly some resolve but I'm not so sure about clarity of objectives, or strategy. Are we ready to fight a comprehensive war where the entire combination of our Armed Forces, covert capabilities and economic and diplomatic actions are well coordinated? I think we need some time to get up to the mark on that.

This is good reading on the inadequacy of our current doctrine https://carnegieindia.org/2020/08/10/ar ... -pub-82426
Weak. If this is how Indian state thinks then it is truly tragic. Truly beta thinking.
darshhan
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by darshhan »

nam wrote:
RaviB wrote:
This is very very true. I am worried many people see war as a question of honour or even a tool measuring contest. War has a price, and from what we see of the Balakot incident and how public opinion swung towards peace soon as Wg. Cdr. Abhinandan was captured, there is absolutely zero appetite for fighting a war. To start a war simply because the public is baying for blood would be highly irresponsible. Unless we have clear objectives and are willing to pay the price to achieve those in our soldiers' blood and the potential for losing the war, it does not make any sense to start something that only the enemy can end.
Luckily for us, we don't have nutcases in our establishment, who go to war for honor & dignity like Pak & Turkey. We don't have a proper objective on LAC, the line is all vague along the 3400KM line and we have people calling for getting in to a attrition war against a 14T country, who have a massive local MIC. Even the US never went in to a one on one fight with the Soviets.

If LoC is anything to go by, then we will just end up with a inflated defense budget. No real gain, but thousands of Indian soldiers holding a 3400KM line. If we don't bother to clean up our local MIC and acquire capability to decimate Chinese forces on LAC, without LoC style defensive line, the we should NOT be getting in a war.

The land is going nowhere, India's claim will not change. Let relation with China be held hostage to PLA leaving the place. Prepare our-self militarily or anything else that is required.

When to fire the first round, sould be our choice.
Flawed and suicidal arguments.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhik »

nam wrote:Watched some youtube documentary on Gulf war air campaign. Really good stuff on youtube.

Amazing stats. Iraq airforce deliberately tried to save their jets. And they were pretty successful. In a week of air campaign, involving 2000 jets, only 20 Iraqi jets were shotdown! 80% of airforce still intact!

Conclusion is that it is not easy to eliminate an alert airforce. The Egyptians were not alert. This gives me hope that Chini BM & CM strikes might create fireworks and some losses, however it will not give a knock out blow to IAF.

Large amount of fake HAS & storage forcing the Chini to allocate BM & CM towards them would greatly help. Just increase the number of targets on a airbase..
Lol, I think you are missing some thing here... fighters not flying in the war zone is as good as not having any fighters. The US and allies had an almost free run destroying Iraqi military from the air.

And IAF is prepared for Chinese missile attacks, of course how effectively they mitigate it is something only a real war will tell.
https://indianexpress.com/article/opini ... versaries/
To avoid the Chinese missile saturation attacks on known airfields, the IAF deliberately operated from scattered satellite airfields and ALGs.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by RajaRudra »

nam wrote:Watched some youtube documentary on Gulf war air campaign. Really good stuff on youtube.

Amazing stats. Iraq airforce deliberately tried to save their jets. And they were pretty successful. In a week of air campaign, involving 2000 jets, only 20 Iraqi jets were shotdown! 80% of airforce still intact!

Conclusion is that it is not easy to eliminate an alert airforce. The Egyptians were not alert. This gives me hope that Chini BM & CM strikes might create fireworks and some losses, however it will not give a knock out blow to IAF.

Large amount of fake HAS & storage forcing the Chini to allocate BM & CM towards them would greatly help. Just increase the number of targets on a airbase..

Sad to know Iraq lost 20 percentage. They could have saved 100% by not having them.
I can understand, Both China and India calculating and pushing the D date as far as possible both to prepare and stare at. But is it correct to find some non existing Chankyan logic for not acting when territory is molested?

I hope govt is really taking its time for preparation.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by RajaRudra »

RaviB wrote:
This is very very true. I am worried many people see war as a question of honour or even a tool measuring contest. War has a price, and from what we see of the Balakot incident and how public opinion swung towards peace soon as Wg. Cdr. Abhinandan was captured, there is absolutely zero appetite for fighting a war. To start a war simply because the public is baying for blood would be highly irresponsible. Unless we have clear objectives and are willing to pay the price to achieve those in our soldiers' blood and the potential for losing the war, it does not make any sense to start something that only the enemy can end.

A simple confident statement from Govt that "In War, There will be captures/losses and we will not stop till the victory is achieved" would turn the narrative quite opposite and the same people would have mentally stronger.

In the background same thing had happened. I don't really even imagine Pakis would have released Abinandan as a good will gesture. Even they know, once govt gave that type of pointed/precise statement , it would be impossible to stop a full fledged war from us. If Modi, really wanted he could have taken the war there to Karachi. That option, is even now in the hands of PM(if so, he wishes)
nam
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by nam »

RajaRudra wrote:
Sad to know Iraq lost 20 percentage. They could have saved 100% by not having them.
I can understand, Both China and India calculating and pushing the D date as far as possible both to prepare and stare at. But is it correct to find some non existing Chankyan logic for not acting when territory is molested?

I hope govt is really taking its time for preparation.
The point is not that Iraqi airforce didn't participate. It is that, even with first attack and almost complete aerial superiority, 2000 fighters at it's disposal, the collation could only knock off only 20% of the jets.

The Iraqis managed to save the jets, using HAS and other means on the ground. This is an important data point as the first wave of Chini attack will involve BM & CM. It also applies as us as well, if anybody among us is delusional to think, we will sweep off PLAAF airbases.

And regarding the way GoI is dealing with the incursion, there is no special logic. It is common sense. For those who like Erdogan's way of going in to war, the Turkish Lira just create a new low, against the dollar.
RajaRudra
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by RajaRudra »

nam wrote:
RajaRudra wrote:
Sad to know Iraq lost 20 percentage. They could have saved 100% by not having them.
I can understand, Both China and India calculating and pushing the D date as far as possible both to prepare and stare at. But is it correct to find some non existing Chankyan logic for not acting when territory is molested?

I hope govt is really taking its time for preparation.
The point is not that Iraqi airforce didn't participate. It is that, even with first attack and almost complete aerial superiority, 2000 fighters at it's disposal, the collation could only knock off only 20% of the jets.

The Iraqis managed to save the jets, using HAS and other means on the ground. This is an important data point as the first wave of Chini attack will involve BM & CM. It also applies as us as well, if anybody among us is delusional to think, we will sweep off PLAAF airbases.

And regarding the way GoI is dealing with the incursion, there is no special logic. It is common sense. For those who like Erdogan's way of going in to war, the Turkish Lira just create a new low, against the dollar.
100 % agreed.
Govt should decide the timing based on many things without under pressure(both for/against war) and i really hope a non kinetic option works(first chance). Let's see
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by williams »

I could not glean how confident is our Army and Airforce in taking on China when we go kinetic. Hopefully, the caution shown here does not reflect what our military leaders think. If it does then, that would question the significant expenditure our country is incurring to maintain these forces (However inefficient is our equipment supplies). Don't tell me we need such forces just to deal with the Pakis. Anyway, Admiral Mehta simply laughs at the perceived superiority of the Chin Navy. Watch it from 7:45. Admiral thinks we are technically way ahead. Perhaps the first bullet will come from our Navy if we can only stare at the Chins in the LAC. At any cost, we need to respond. These economic and diplomatic steps are good but we need to violently show the consequences of breaching the status quo in LAC. That is what real powers do when provoked.

BTW I don't believe Civilian leadership is out of sync with the military not with the MAD team in the helm of affairs. This divide between military and civilian leadership is propaganda that is systematically promulgated by the Lutyens deep state. This needs to be debunked ruthlessly

Last edited by williams on 17 Aug 2020 23:26, edited 2 times in total.
abhik
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhik »

For what it's worth, lets see what comes out of todays meeting.
ANI: With China reluctant to disengage, top Indian political, military leaders to discuss way forward in Ladakh
With China not disengaging in Finger area, Depsang plains and Gogra after multiple rounds of military talks, top Indian political and military leaders are scheduled to meet on Monday to discuss the way forward there.
Chinese troops have been camping in the Finger area for over three months now and have even started fortifying their bases there with construction of bunkers and sangars.
"Top political leadership along with the military leaders are scheduled to discuss the strategy to deal with the ongoing situation in Eastern Ladakh sector where the Chinese had transgressed into multiple locations," government sources told ANI.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by arshyam »

Fpr those who are advocating kinetic action, could you please go beyond 1-liners and define the objective would be? Also, what kind of escalations that could comes out of such an action? This is not to say we should smoke the peace pipe, but that military campaigns initiated without a specific objective is sure to flounder.
abhik
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by abhik »

Things are getting interesting :)
d-atis
@detresfa_
2 x Chengdu J-20 stealth fighters were spotted at #Hotan airbase recently, this as the #IndiaChinaFaceOff continues

-- image via chinese social media
[img=https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfoyKegUwAAiDPO?format=png][/img]
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by shyamd »

GOI to announce economic measures against PRC soon and politicians/CSG want to exhaust other measures before military option is considered.

Army presented to CSG today. Navy presenting on Wednesday looks like. The Doval-Wang border committee meets this week.

There is a theory that Xi is asking for a summit level meet to show domestic audience that India agreed to vacate certain areas....
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by schinnas »

arshyam wrote:Fpr those who are advocating kinetic action, could you please go beyond 1-liners and define the objective would be? Also, what kind of escalations that could comes out of such an action? This is not to say we should smoke the peace pipe, but that military campaigns initiated without a specific objective is sure to flounder.
Background:
This is not a kinetic action we choose as aggressors. This is thrust upon us by the expansionism and intransigence of Cheen and after exhausting all other options other than totally caving in.

Objectives:
1. Send a strong message that our borders are sacrosanct, words of our leaders carry weight and put an end to the policy of salami slicing by Cheen.
2. Fix tactical shortcomings in LAC and also get back some of the earlier occupations / salami slicing.
2.1. Get more territory than we want, to give room in the negotiation table.
3. Avoid getting into a full blown war but be prepared if it's thrust on us in the course of things.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Post by Ashokk »

Ready to work with India to manage differences: China :roll:
NEW DELHI: China stands ready to work with India to enhance political mutual trust, properly manage differences, step up practical cooperation and “safeguard the long-term development” of bilateral ties, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Monday.
The remark by spokesperson Zhao Lijian was in response to a query on PM Modi’s Independence Day speech in which he had said the Indian Army had given a fitting reply to acts of aggression challenging India’s sovereignty, “from LoC to LAC”.
Responding to the question, Zhao said China had “noted” Modi’s speech.
“We are close neighbours, we are emerging countries with over one billion people. So, the sound development of bilateral ties not only serves the interest of the two peoples but also stability, peace, prosperity of the region and the whole world,” he said.
"The right path for the two sides is to respect and support each other as this serves our long-term interests," Zhao added.
In his speech, Modi also said “whether it is terrorism or expansionism, India is fighting both with determination”.
Referring to the Galwan Valley clashes in eastern Ladakh, the PM said respect for India’s sovereignty was supreme and the world had seen in Ladakh what its brave jawans could do to maintain this resolve.
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