India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[Sravan]

Walmart does arm the Civilian US population. This is fact. The base in Nevada is the biggest arms depot in the world.

Hawthorne Army Depot (HWAD) is a U.S. Army ammunition storage depot located near the town of Hawthorne in western Nevada in the United States. It is directly south of Walker Lake. The depot covers 147,000 acres (59,000 ha) or 226 sq. mi. and has 600,000 square feet (56,000 m2) storage space in 2,427 bunkers.

We can supply Tibet because of the roads the Chinese built to pressure us. The simple answer is the right answer. If the Chinese can use these roads to rush their APCs and Tanks, we can also use them. Connect the BRO roads to Chinese roads after the initial surge.

That means that TAR road connectivity with the Himalayas is well built and only about 2-3 highways connect the TAR region to mainland China. What other breakdown do you need? You drive your trucks up the Chinese build roads in the Himalayas. You don’t need a complicated strategy that is convoluted. Use their roads against them and cut off connectivity to TAR. That’s it.

Present me with a better strategy to stop China or don’t neg.

[arshyam]

As long as Global Times keeps attacking India, things are good. Be suspicious if things improve too quickly, it means a sellout has happened.

What we are seeing now is good, right wing people like Bhrama Chellany are attacking Modi to keep the Government honest, which is making any temptation of a sellout less likely. On the military front we are seeing inconclusive meetings which again means sellout isn’t happening. Hope this pattern is continued for months of inconclusive diplomatic talks.

Eventually when the Chinese get tired of this s**tty forward deployment on a freezing desert for 8 km of barren land that isn’t serving its purpose of deterring India from building roads, they will go back into their holes.

This is the ideal outcome.

I said this earlier and would say again. We have experience in winter ops. We have experience in mountain ops. We are more than familiar with deploying in hitherto-impossible places like Saltoro/Siachen. So this winter, we should conduct an Op Meghdoot-style operation and occupy a few commanding heights that the Chinese vacate/occupy empty ones. These should either be a) points dominating some Chinese facilities in Tibet, or b) points that could dominate/threaten our own rear positions. Of course, it goes without saying that we should not end up spreading people too thin neverwho-style (cc chetak-ji), but only take those points where we can supply our people by air reliably and can build roads to those areas quickly, say within a year (we have to up our game here). Given the long border, I am sure there are more than a few such points we can occupy.

The risk is that the Chinese would try to occupy the remaining points we will not be able to occupy (there will be a few such points due to geographical and logistical challenges from our side). To some extent, it can't be helped and we should be ready to occupy/defend at the next convenient location and not fall into the neverwho-vian trap of defending every inch. The idea is to not station men at each peak, but to secure the overall border to our advantage.

There are some other challenges to us, especially in terms of manpower and cost. We'll need more manpower to deploy with all its attendant costs, so I'd suggest taking a leaf from Deans sir's proposal in his book and merge the BSF, ITBP and SSB, and use the saved monies to recruit more border police units. The army has anyway gotten rid of, or in the process of, military farms, support staff (sahayaks) as well as reduced the officer strength at command HQs, deploying them to forward locations, so that should make more troops available for deployment. If needed, we can raise more pahari battalions who'd be better equipped to deal with the weather conditions. We'll need more helicopters for supplies (while the roads are built), so that's something we need to look into (increase orders for LUH, maybe?). Net result, such an op would end up costing us more than today's deployment, but given our objective as "securing our border to our advantage", it would be worth it.

The Chinese will definitely lose face, come to the negotiating table, or worse, accept the status quo since they don't have the men or the experience with mountain warfare and weather conditions. Get them out of their comfortable hyperbaric oxygen chambers or air-conditioned buses. Without under-estimating them, they may, in a few years, gain that experience, but we'd also be well dug in by then.

There will be a cost to our people. Nature and weather don't forgive too many mistakes and we are talking about the tallest mountains in the world. But we have the experience in holding such positions, and we will be securing our own borders by this move. Not to mention we have been provoked by the Chinese into such an action. So the question of morale won't arise.

[khan]

I said this earlier and would say again...

If the Chinese don’t back down once they see that roads are still being built - I say, yes absolutely, that’s not a bad idea.

But if they leave on their own once the going gets tough, then what’s the point in doing this. Might as well keep building roads and directing resources towards RMA instead of turning the whole northern border into LOC.

[arshyam]

Walmart does arm the Civilian US population. This is fact. The base in Nevada is the biggest arms depot in the world.

Hawthorne Army Depot (HWAD) is a U.S. Army ammunition storage depot located near the town of Hawthorne in western Nevada in the United States. It is directly south of Walker Lake. The depot covers 147,000 acres (59,000 ha) or 226 sq. mi. and has 600,000 square feet (56,000 m2) storage space in 2,427 bunkers.

My earlier point regarding Walmart was that it is not relevant to us - Nevada is literally on the other side of the world. If they had such a base with easy access and supply lines in Bagram, then may be we can talk. Fact it, despite such shackinaw infra, the might khan himself is struggling in Afghanistan? Why? (btw, this is the third time I asking you this question, since you don't bother to/can't answer)

We can supply Tibet because of the roads the Chinese built to pressure us. The simple answer is the right answer. If the Chinese can use these roads to rush their APCs and Tanks, we can also use them. Connect the BRO roads to Chinese roads after the initial surge.

Simple answers also run the risk of becoming too simplistic. How many roads exist across the Himalaya that can connect the Chinese roads close to the border? How much traffic can they handle? How many months in a year would they remain open?

Most importantly, are the Chinese roads built to defend the choke points between Tibet and China, or for their rapid deployment into Tibet from other areas? Any planner worth his salt would do the latter, and I'd give that much credit to the Chinese. So roads like G-219 and G-318 are simply built to move gear from the east or the north (Golmud, Hotan, Kashgar, etc.), and as much as possible, are across easier terrain. These would have to be defended by our troops in your fantasy scenario, and that won't be easy (at minimum, we'll need an overwhelming level of air superiority). In conclusion, there are no roads to the defensive locations between China and Tibet, so how do you plan to hold and supply them? Simple question onlee, isn't it?

Present me with a better strategy to stop China or don’t neg.

Since you came up with a fantastical and improbable scenario, the onus is well on you to either develop it realistically, or present a serious one that takes into account ground realities. I don't know what "don't neg" means, but I did point you to the scenario thread where you could indulge these fantasies without "neg", though even there, scenarios like vivek_ahuja's were far more realistic. Either way, I am done talking to you, and don't want to waste any more time on your childish nonsense.

[arshyam]

I said this earlier and would say again...

If the Chinese don’t back down once they see that roads are still being built - I say, yes absolutely, that’s not a bad idea.

But if they leave on their own once the going gets tough, then what’s the point in doing this. Might as well keep building roads and directing resources towards RMA instead of turning the whole northern border into LOC.

True. It goes back to the question of what the objective is, and if our hand is forced. Fact is, if we can defend the border with minimal troop deployment, GoI would always go for that option (any sensible govt would do the same).

[Sravan]

Walmart does arm the Civilian US population. This is fact. The base in Nevada is the biggest arms depot in the world.

Hawthorne Army Depot (HWAD) is a U.S. Army ammunition storage depot located near the town of Hawthorne in western Nevada in the United States. It is directly south of Walker Lake. The depot covers 147,000 acres (59,000 ha) or 226 sq. mi. and has 600,000 square feet (56,000 m2) storage space in 2,427 bunkers.

My earlier point regarding Walmart was that it is not relevant to us - Nevada is literally on the other side of the world. If they had such a base with easy access and supply lines in Bagram, then may be we can talk. Fact it, despite such shackinaw infra, the might khan himself is struggling in Afghanistan? Why? (btw, this is the third time I asking you this question, since you don't bother to/can't answer)

We can supply Tibet because of the roads the Chinese built to pressure us. The simple answer is the right answer. If the Chinese can use these roads to rush their APCs and Tanks, we can also use them. Connect the BRO roads to Chinese roads after the initial surge.

Simple answers also run the risk of becoming too simplistic. How many roads exist across the Himalaya that can connect the Chinese roads close to the border? How much traffic can they handle? How many months in a year would they remain open?

Most importantly, are the Chinese roads built to defend the choke points between Tibet and China, or for their rapid deployment into Tibet from other areas? Any planner worth his salt would do the latter, and I'd give that much credit to the Chinese. So roads like G-219 and G-318 are simply built to move gear from the east or the north (Golmud, Hotan, Kashgar, etc.), and as much as possible, are across easier terrain. These would have to be defended by our troops in your fantasy scenario, and that won't be easy (at minimum, we'll need an overwhelming level of air superiority). In conclusion, there are no roads to the defensive locations between China and Tibet, so how do you plan to hold and supply them? Simple question onlee, isn't it?

Present me with a better strategy to stop China or don’t neg.

Since you came up with a fantastical and improbable scenario, the onus is well on you to either develop it realistically, or present a serious one that takes into account ground realities. I don't know what "don't neg" means, but I did point you to the scenario thread where you could indulge these fantasies without "neg", though even there, scenarios like vivek_ahuja's were far more realistic. Either way, I am done talking to you, and don't want to waste any more time on your childish nonsense.

Air support from IAF and the Quad strike carrier groups in the Arabian Sea will deny any air support. We send paratroopers to sabotage the TAR <> Mainland China connectivity. We then deploy our forces via the Chinese roads. Internalize this: Tibet only has 2.5 people per sq. Km. Their forces number 50,000 to 60,000 troops. Total population of Tibet is 3 million people. If we do a surge with 200,000 to 300,000 troops with air dominance, we can exert full control over TAR. We can surge and hold ground in TAR and cut off those highways. Our rate of movement would exceed the Chinese if we move now. If we wait until they redeploy reinforcements from different provinces, we lose that opportunity.

In other news, Hong Kong activists are reaching out to India for support.

[Aditya_V]

Surge to 200000 to 300000, we cant afford it now . It takes time acclimatize such soldiers give enough heavy weaponry air support , long range cruise missiles, Logistics, Vehicles, fuel, trained engineering divisions etc.

We are 10-15 years away from all this. Today it is clearly impractical. What is practical is while dealing with the Pakistanis - where a majority of resources will go through, it too build our infrastructure and over a period of 5-6 months, strengthen our posts logistics chain , slowly nibble away at territories and restore status quo in about 6 months.

The other side is trying to do salami slicing, we must do that, no point fighting from a disadvantageous situation. Nothing is built in a day.

And this thread is focusing only on China while ignoring what the Pakistanis are upto. First squeeze them while slowly dealing with the Chinese. We can take on China only when we have dealt with the Pakistani threat

[NRao]

Pressures increasing on Indonesia and Malaysia in the South China Sea

[Philip]

How do we support paras in inhospitable terrain? We don't have enough air-droppable ICVs/ light tanks,field guns to back them up.
I urge those who have access to it,AVM Arjun Subramaniam's excellent book," India's Wars" 1947- 1971,written when still in service at the NDC.

He quotes Blainey: " Wars usually end when the fighting nations agree on their relative strength, and wars usually begin when fighting nations disagree ontheir relative strength."
In the current scenario, the unexpected huge buildup of Chin forces indicate the mindset of their fuhrer XI.Overwhelm Indian forces and seize territory. It has done so. It's politico-military aim clearly understood to be; " stop your border infra. immediately and beware of threatening our OBOR masterplan for global domination in this part of the world",indirectly also telling us,if our MEA mice can't read betweenthe lines," forget about POK chum,it belongs to the Pakis and us". Now how will the GOI respond?
We've already said," no wayee yellow-face XI!" ,conveyed by our military corps commander. All the static about the positive nature of the talks by the MEA must be treated as mere roti spin,inedible to be flushed down the latrine.

There is no alternative for India but to prepare for a long hard conflict that China with its vast resources can drag on indefinitely,with side support to keep us off balance with Pak and now unexpectedly Nepal! The speed with which oily Oli is passing his constitutional amendment regarding the territorial dispute is to engineer some sort of clash between our two nations.Big bully India bullying tiny sweet Nepal,you get my drift. Not big bully China bullying democratic India! That would gravely endanger the excellent relationship the two armies have for each other. Destroying the Indo-Nepal ancien friendship and ties has been the priority of the Chins and yet again our flat-foots in the MEA were unable to combat it! Just imagine an incident on the Indo- Nepal border at this time.This is the card that China is playing right now against us but we have bugger all in our hands ,no Tibet card at all as a counter!

The GOI should pension off the Chin appeasement lobby in the Delhi Durbar with indecent haste.It should integrate the services into our foreign policy strategic planning,viewing our FP primarily from the military standpoint in the light of Chin global ambitions.
Right now the perception of the Indian military strength and more importantly will to fight in the minds of XI and his chief advisers is crucial.We must take immediate measures as earlier spelt out to acquire critically required weapon systems,ammo,spares,etc. and let the Chins know that our strength is such,enough to give them more than a bloodynose,but a blooody thrashing! Who will blink first ? Let's act fast to make it the Chins .

[Prem]

Walmart does arm the Civilian US population. This is fact. The base in Nevada is the biggest arms depot in the world.
Hawthorne Army Depot (HWAD) is a U.S. Army ammunition storage depot located near the town of Hawthorne in western Nevada in the United States. It is directly south of Walker Lake. The depot covers 147,000 acres (59,000 ha) or 226 sq. mi. and has 600,000 square feet (56,000 m2) storage space in 2,427 bunkers.We can supply Tibet because of the roads the Chinese built to pressure us. The simple answer is the right answer. If the Chinese can use these roads to rush their APCs and Tanks, we can also use them. Connect the BRO roads to Chinese roads after the initial surge.
That means that TAR road connectivity with the Himalayas is well built and only about 2-3 highways connect the TAR region to mainland China. What other breakdown do you need? You drive your trucks up the Chinese build roads in the Himalayas. You don’t need a complicated strategy that is convoluted. Use their roads against them and cut off connectivity to TAR. That’s it.
Present me with a better strategy to stop China or don’t neg.

It was the largest Ammunition depot in 2nd WW. 2 Hours from there is Tonopah and US building underground storage facility for spent Nuclear fuel. Special forces also use the area for training as terrain resembles that of Afghanistan.

[arshyam]

Air support over Tibet from carrier borne aircraft in the Arabian sea? What next, flying tanks and Avengers style heli-carriers?

What's BRF coming to these days?

[Sravan]

Air support over Tibet from carrier borne aircraft in the Arabian sea? What next, flying tanks and Avengers style heli-carriers?

What's BRF coming to these days?

Whether we like it or not, this is happening. Do we want to be caught with our pants down or should we go after them on our terms.



Looks like the participants of the forum aren’t able to see the writing on the wall. This conflict is happening. We need a strategy and status quo = defeat. We need to strike on our terms.

[arshyam]

^^ You are just trolling at this point. I'd suggest getting a nice wall map (TTK still makes some) and studying it well over a few hours. Maybe start with identifying where India is on the map, then Arabian sea, followed by Tibet's eastern frontier with China, wherever you think it should be. A scale is also recommended so you can consider the distances you are blithely strategizing over. Maybe, just maybe, you might then get the point I am trying to make.

All the best for your studies.

EDITED: That second video from Wion is just re-hash of the #BoysWithToys nonsense that was discussed in the previous page. "Large-scale" manoeuvres, right.

[Kati]

Admin, please feel free to delete this post if it deems too sensitive.

1. In case of a limited / unlimited war, or border skirmishes, where a punitive ingression into TAR might rerequired, a lot will
depend on our secret Tibetan division manned fully with the Tibetan exiles who can easily vanish into the local population. These
foot soldiers will be essential for setting up ambushes and/or carrying out behind the enely line subversive activities.

2. However, a major stumbling block will be HH Dalai Lama. Some people think that during his numerous trips to the west,
His Highness has been prodded by the western leaders to maintain a conciliatory stance toward Panda. He was urged not to
ruffle the Panda's feathers too much. During any conflict if he makes any similar statement then the Tibetan themselves would be
half demoralized. This is a major concern.

[kit]

Air support over Tibet from carrier borne aircraft in the Arabian sea? What next, flying tanks and Avengers style heli-carriers?

What's BRF coming to these days?

That's the reason I asked for a discussion on how exactly the QUAD can help... unless you create pressure points on its eastern sea board China is not going anywhere

[Deans]

PS.: Now may be a good time for people to buy/read poster Deans' book (written a year ago) now on AMazon: 2022- India's Two-front War
https://www.amazon.com/2022-Indias-two- ... 1091617422

Thank you for plugging it. The book does indeed deal with all that we have been discussing here. Its free on kindle unlimited (physical copy not available in India) and Kindle unlimited itself has a 30 day free trial.
Royalties go to our Army battle casualties fund and I get a royalty even on free copies sold under Kindle unlimited.

[Sravan]

PS.: Now may be a good time for people to buy/read poster Deans' book (written a year ago) now on AMazon: 2022- India's Two-front War
https://www.amazon.com/2022-Indias-two- ... 1091617422

Thank you for plugging it. The book does indeed deal with all that we have been discussing here. Its free on kindle unlimited (physical copy not available in India) and Kindle unlimited itself has a 30 day free trial.
Royalties go to our Army battle casualties fund and I get a royalty even on free copies sold under Kindle unlimited.

Can you post a summary?

[chetonzz]

Admin, please feel free to delete this post if it deems too sensitive.

1. In case of a limited / unlimited war, or border skirmishes, where a punitive ingression into TAR might rerequired, a lot will
depend on our secret Tibetan division manned fully with the Tibetan exiles who can easily vanish into the local population. These
foot soldiers will be essential for setting up ambushes and/or carrying out behind the enely line subversive activities.

2. However, a major stumbling block will be HH Dalai Lama. Some people think that during his numerous trips to the west,
His Highness has been prodded by the western leaders to maintain a conciliatory stance toward Panda. He was urged not to
ruffle the Panda's feathers too much. During any conflict if he makes any similar statement then the Tibetan themselves would be
half demoralized. This is a major concern.

one major thing that prevents "tibetan jihad" is, the concept of "jihad" itself being absent from tibetan nationalism/ culture

for an intense insurgency- many things should be in place
1. brain washing destructive ideology/religion
2. people adhering to above point being in majority in region being discussed
3. weak democratic system allowing leeches and presstitutes to exist-grow-multiply- they form the protective wall for scum (from above two points) to survive in innermost places
4. outside support for arms and training

all of them are present in J&K and completely out of Q in TAR

[arshyam]

Air support over Tibet from carrier borne aircraft in the Arabian sea? What next, flying tanks and Avengers style heli-carriers?

What's BRF coming to these days?

That's the reason I asked for a discussion on how exactly the QUAD can help... unless you create pressure points on its eastern sea board China is not going anywhere

It's just easier to dream on, no?

[Deans]

Air support over Tibet from carrier borne aircraft in the Arabian sea? What next, flying tanks and Avengers style heli-carriers?

What's BRF coming to these days?

That's the reason I asked for a discussion on how exactly the QUAD can help... unless you create pressure points on its eastern sea board China is not going anywhere

The Quad (or quad +, if Vietnam and Taiwan are added) can help in a number of ways and some of these have, as I understand, quietly started.

1. Mapping the acoustic signatures of Chinese subs and comparing notes on tracking them. No one does this better than the USN and the Japanese
The Japanese spent decades tracking Soviet subs who were a lot quieter and tactically aware than the Chinese.
The biggest threat the Quad faces is the Chinese submarine fleet.

2. Mapping the movements of the Chinese merchant fleet. They have 8000 ships (we have 400). If ships of both countries pass through the same choke points (e.g. strait of Hormuz, Malacca strait etc) the probability of a Chinese ship being targeted is 20 times higher. China depends a lot more on global trade than India and Chinese ships carry a far higher proportion of their country's trade than India. Even the threat of targeting Chinese merchant shipping, can cause a serious loss of confidence in the Chinese economy.

3. Sharing satellite imagery and Humint within China (the Taiwanese presumably have tons of it)

4. Securing our networks against cyber attacks and sharing electronic intel on the Chinese (US, Japan and Taiwan are decades ahead of us).

5. Sharing bases for logistics. refueling etc ( which will massively extend the reach of our subs, drones & P8i in intercepting Chinese merchant shipping or tracking subs.

6. More aggressive joint exercises. e.g. Sub tracking with the US and Japanese navies. Exercising with Taiwanese F-16s.

None of these cost the Quad countries anything.

[Deans]

Thank you for plugging it. The book does indeed deal with all that we have been discussing here. Its free on kindle unlimited (physical copy not available in India) and Kindle unlimited itself has a 30 day free trial.
Royalties go to our Army battle casualties fund and I get a royalty even on free copies sold under Kindle unlimited.

Can you post a summary?

Pls google. The book is almost 500 pages.

[mody]

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindi ... spartandhp

PLAGF conducts large scale exercise to move men and material quickly to the Tibetan plateau.
PLA tryint to show off its capability to rapidly deploy troops from the central provinces to the western theater.
Also, using commercial jets for the purpose.

Remember last year PLA and the pakis had conducted military exercise in winter at an undisclosed location. The location was probably somewhere in Tibet, as the terrain was described as mountainous and high altitude. The pictures showed a lot of snow around. Could have been in prepartion for this type of adventure by the PLA.
Also, to be noted is that Winnie the Poo has personally taken a lot of interest in the re-organisation to the PLAGF over the past 7-8 years and has taken personal credit for the modernisation and reorganisation of all the three arms of the PLA.
After Doklam, the chinese know that Indians are no pushover and I am sure they know about our force levels in Ladakh and in the North East. Hence, if the chinese are still pressing on, it would mean that they have been planning this for a while and have planned for all contigencies.
We also should be prepared for a joint Sino-Porki action in the western border, along with action against the chinese on the eastern front.
Our tactically brilliant neighbour to the west would be more then eager to do his master's bidding.

[Deans]

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindi ... spartandhp

PLAGF conducts large scale exercise to move men and material quickly to the Tibetan plateau.
PLA tryint to show off its capability to rapidly deploy troops from the central provinces to the western theater.
Also, using commercial jets for the purpose.

The average PLAGF soldier has spent all of 2 days (or weeks if I have to be generous) at high altitude. The average Indian infantryman has spent a couple of years. Moving men quickly to Tibet is an oxymoron - they need time to acclimitize. Moving them without equipment, ammunition, POL and places to house these men, is pointless. We have been using commercial jets to fly the army to Leh and Thoise for year now.

[chola]

Eh, like at Doklam nothing will come of it despite all the posturing. Was disappointed from the start that we engaged in nothing but sticks-and-stones fighting like school yard kids.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/india-a ... sions.html

India and China have agreed to peacefully settle their border tensions in the Himalayas through diplomatic and military channels.

“Both sides agreed to peacefully resolve the situation in the border areas in accordance with various bilateral agreements and keeping in view the agreement between the leaders that peace and tranquility in the India-China border regions is essential for the overall development of bilateral relations,” India’s foreign ministry said in a statement on Sunday after bilateral talks between the two countries.

[Nihat]

It's good that news has come out in the public domain regarding 11k plus workers heading out to the border to speed up the works. The Chinese very much keep an eye on our media and this should send a nice signal.

After it came out from the army level talks that the Chinese have demanded a stop to border works, this is exactly the news that needed to come out. They should know now that a powerful and resilient India is here to stay and push back if needed.

Once complete, our road and air network along LAC will insure that any advantage that the Chinese had in deployment speed has been negated.

My only concern is regarding their superiority in GLCM and they can bring to bear saturation attacks using the same that can disrupt supply lines and we currently do not have either a counter GLCM or enough Sam coverage to vulnerable area coverage.

[abhik]

This is from Nitin A. Gokhale (@nitingokhale) yesterday

https://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status ... 93472?s=20

Since China is bent on trying to create an impression that its terrocotta warriors are ready for high altitude battle, perhaps it is time to talk about an imaginary table top exercise some military enthusiasts have authored and played out in their minds

Not long ago, in 2018, they held a table-top exercise painting a likely scenario along the Northern Frontier. Both the Northern and Eastern Commands were made to assume the role of Blueland (India). The 'Yellowland (China)' was depicted by the Army Training Command (ARTRAC)

Built into the scenario was the possibility of multiple Yellowland probing along the India-China border under an overhang of a global crisis (the nature of the crisis was not specified). It was assumed that major global powers would be distracted and India would also be affected

On the 1st day of the exercise, Blueland forces got busy in countering multiple moves along the border by Yellowland: attempted intrusion in Arunachal Pradesh; a provocation in Sikkim; helicopters coming closer to the border in Uttarakhand and substantial build up opposite Ladakh

Added to the mix was a natural disaster to India's east and a crisis in a fictitious Indian Ocean country, keeping Indian decision-makers busy in organising HADR as well as rushing help in the form of substantial elements of India's only Para brigade to that country in the IOR!

So how did Blueland deal with the crisis? Realising that Yellowland strategy was to tire out Indian forces by triggering multiple mini-crises, Blueland's military leaders played it smart: They just ordered forward posturing by existing forces closer to the LAC in respective zones

So in Northern Command, brigades normally positioned in depth got deployed closer to the border; armour regiments carried out visible manouvres; In Eastern Command, elements of the Mountain Strike Corps moved to their Operational locations; The message was more than loud

Reserve brigades, stationed in the plains of Punjab and Himchal Pradesh and in West Bengal and Assam, were airlifted, accalamatised and deployed by turns. In short, a massive display of force was evident. The result: Redland, after an assumed lapse of three weeks, sought talks

The Yellowland tactic was by now familiar to Blueland: Show aggression and test resolve of the adversary. If the adversary didn't buckle, offer talks; appear reasonable in the negotiations. After prolonged negotiations, restore status quo ante. Rinse. Repeat.

The authors of the war game concluded that Yellowland would employ these tactics twice or thrice before launching a massive strike two-three years after the first probe but only after assessing if the risk in taking on the Blueland adversary was worth it.

Cut to 2020. Any resemblance to current events across the globe, and along India's northern borders is purely coincidental

In the 8th tweet, for Redland please read Yellowland

[Cyrano]

Deans,
The PLAGF can surely drag the discussions for a couple of months while all the time increasing its buildup and allowing its troops to acclimatise by end August in bases close to LAC or further away in Tibet. That still leaves them a 3 month window to attempt some serious action.

India's advantage in this matter will not last very long. So dragging the negotiations is not to our advantage.

[arshyam]

None of these cost the Quad countries anything.

Thanks - all of these can be thought of as intelligence sharing and cooperation among friendly countries. At best, some level of institutionalized info sharing and training exercises. While definitely useful, that's all we can expect from this grouping for now.

What are your thoughts on our occupying some positions and do some salami slicing ourselves? While the current talks would be resolved, China won't be made to pay a price for their periodic antics. We need to impose a cost on them somehow.

[arshyam]

It would be foolish to think these quad+ countries would send men and materiel to fight China alongside us, given the current threat levels to countries other than us. Heck, even we are not going to war for a few fingers - any democratic govt would need public support for such an action, or an immediate external threat. China has so far operated under that threshold, so it would be very hard for GoI to justify any big military action. So unless China does something incredibly stupid and causes an existential problem for all of us, a combined military response to China is not happening.

Since India and China are immediate neighbours and China perceives some sort of superiority w.r.t. us, the maximum threat from China is to us. Only us. So whatever we can do with our own resources (men + materiel) is what we should be focusing on. That's what I'd been saying over the past couple of pages here, but the thread got derailed with fantastic scenarios about liberating Tibet and what not.

[Sravan]

It would be foolish to think these quad+ countries would send men and materiel to fight China alongside us, given the current threat levels to countries other than us. Heck, even we are not going to war for a few fingers - any democratic govt would need public support for such an action, or an immediate external threat. China has so far operated under that threshold, so it would be very hard for GoI to justify any big military action. So unless China does something incredibly stupid and causes an existential problem for all of us, a combined military response to China is not happening.

Since India and China are immediate neighbours and China perceives some sort of superiority w.r.t. us, the maximum threat from China is to us. Only us. So whatever we can do with our own resources (men + materiel) is what we should be focusing on. That's what I'd been saying over the past couple of pages here, but the thread got derailed with fantastic scenarios about liberating Tibet and what not.

Typical desi line of thinking. What’s in it for me?

The Quad countries don’t think like this. Their goal is how to shape the world to be beneficial to their goals. What business does the US have in Latin America? Yet it provides a military for Costa Rica. What business does Japan have in space defense, yet they just created a space defense force. The flaw is we apply our desi mindset to foreign powers. These powers don’t think like this. Their focus is on shaping the world in a way that they get an unfair advantage. Right now that means beating up China.

[NRao]

There is nothing called Quad beyond dialogues. The closest they come to a coordinated military activity (exercise) is the Malabar, which is a tri-national one only since 2015. The 'roo may join this year. Up to India.

The IN and USN do share a lot of info in the IOR.

[Aditya_V]

In 1962 Nehru thought this and sent his troops in small groups without backup or proper preparation- nobody came. In 1939 Poland assumed the same thing. Nobody puts their life on the line unless it is in their strategic Interest and defending India is not one of them.

China is now provoking Indonesia, Malayasia, Philipines, Vietnam are also being provoked in Chinese waters, why they are not attacking them ? Chinese planes are flying over Japan- why are they attacking them. Why the USA allowing its allies airspace is being violated.

[Sravan]

I give up. There is no benefit to fighting alone and maintaining no. Alignment. When you fight someone you want to bring your friends and their friends to jump someone. This is how WWII was won. American ships would jump Superior German ships by outnumbering them. That turned the tide of WWII. If you want to limit the scope to India’s capacities, then that is a self imposed limit on the operating envelope. It’s the same reason Hindu kings didn’t help each other during invasions and this line of thinking is flawed.

[NRao]

There are no military alliances, that I know of, that India belongs to. In fact, Jaishankar, has made that very clear, no sides as he calls it.

India has been reluctant to join the USN in FONOPS in the SCS!

India could ask and get assistance, in the form of ammunition, etc. But, i doubt anything beyond that.

You just may have better luck if you can convince the CEOs of Google, IBM, Microsoft, Master Card, Pepsi, etc to stop doing business with China.

[darshan]

No military alliance will solve each country's internal issues. Especially India's. Chinese have been spending lot of money to weaken institutions in each country for awhile.

[samirdiw]

My point exactly. I think we should fire the first salvo at our time of choosing, get a strategic gain and call a cease fire. If they escalate, take Aksai Chin & Tibet

Taking all of Tibet may be next to impossible considering that Nehru isn't ruling China.

We should try to take half of (historical) Tibet. Then the logistics problems will be comparatively equal on both sides and then holding on to the new line will be a doable task. We might need to rapidly increase our amount of mobile artillery to be on par as the chinese.

The Tibet we rescue, that will include Lhasa, should be called Western Tibet or something. The land upto Brahmaputra/ Yarlung Tsangpo (which anyway is not far from the border wrt Tibet) should be incorporated into the other bordering states of India with or without agreement from Dalai LAma. There will be a cost attached to our shedding blood. The part opposing Nepal might be a new union territory. The remaining part of rescued Tibet should be made into another TAR on our side with the Tibetans controlling everything excluding Military and Economy with partially independent foreign affairs. This will bring forth Tibetian land still captured by china more international focus.

Why is this not doable for India without external support? Today all it theoretically takes is one chinese guy to border all of the Tibetian border to keep our jawans stuck to their positions. We should have some shame?

[NRao]

China, to their credit, has gamed every detail, trade, financial, military, etc, extremely well. And now has a huge boost from a badly distracted world and a comical US President. And, China gamed this situation too and is executing and gathering data for future moves.

Imho, China will go back to pre April positions in this "dispute". But, would have gained a boat load of info - worldwide - to game the next moveS.

China is not only taking on multiple nations in military, but is taking on Canada and the UK in telecommunication, Australia and the US in trade. And, all the while keeping a lid on her other partner's in Africa, south Asia, etc.

[sanjayc]

^^ Chinese are trying to take on the whole world by themselves -- they against everyone. Hitler did the same and look where it landed him. World's patience is running thin

[darshan]

US election isn't over yet. US and China have in the past killed each other and moved on to be allies again. Heck, even my coworkers are not as anti Chinese as they are anti Russian. So not sure why people think that there would be anything more than logistics support from US. US would keep everything under tight leash to make sure that India doesn't go far. There's no feeling in US to demand the blood of Chinese for any politician to go far.

[Deans]

Deans,
The PLAGF can surely drag the discussions for a couple of months while all the time increasing its buildup and allowing its troops to acclimatise by end August in bases close to LAC or further away in Tibet. That still leaves them a 3 month window to attempt some serious action.

India's advantage in this matter will not last very long. So dragging the negotiations is not to our advantage.

Amar ji, We can reinforce Ladakh faster than the Chinese. We can bring the equivalent of a division from the North East - either by stripping a brigade from each of our 3 corps, our moving one division form III corps in Dimapur which has a mostly Counter insurgency role. Doing both gives us 2 more divisions of mountain infantry. In addition 39 Div at Yol is dual tasked and can move into South Ladakh.
To counter that, China has to move its entire Western theatre command to Ladakh. That force has to move along a single highway (G219). There is no construction in place near the LAC to house a force close to that size - or store their supplies. Even by Chinese standards, that construction effort will take months. Getting the labor in place (who will have difficulty adapting to the altitude, unlike our pro-India local porters) will take weeks and will be at the cost of rail and road capacity required to move an army. The time required for acclimitizing is only a small part of the total time they will need. If they work on a war footing starting now, they will finish in winter, when conditions make combat next to impossible. Also China cannot move this force and withdraw it, without a huge loss of face, unless they start and win a war. It has taken us decades to put our existing infrastructure in place. Apart from this, insurgency in the valley, cross LOC firing and stone pelting etc have been at their lowest level in years, giving us a reserve of infantry (unlike during Kargil).