India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 06 Jun 2020 12:39

Guys, stop political debates.

Sravan · Post by **Sravan** » 06 Jun 2020 12:52

Twitter is saying talks failed

Sravan · Post by **Sravan** » 06 Jun 2020 12:59

I think the window is closing on hitting them

Karna · Post by **Karna** » 06 Jun 2020 13:10

Before 2014, our strategy against Na Pork was very defensive. However, post 2014 we have not only been very assertive on our borders we have also isolated na pork within the OIC and globally. Na pork today can only count on cheen, turkey and Malaysia. We have also increased the military envelope beyond a full scale war.

It's very clear that cheen doesn't consider us as equals and will use any opportunity to prick us or keep us engaged. Cheen has use to every multi lateral forum to oppose India if it suits its purpose. Ex : NSG council, malabar naval excercise with Aus

The suprise is always with aggressor and with us having more than 3000K border with cheen we will keep on getting suprised.

Can one throw a light as to why we have been very reluctant to take cheen head on publicly on global forums?

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 06 Jun 2020 13:32

Sravan wrote:Twitter is saying talks failed

The talks haven't even begun, have they?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 06 Jun 2020 13:46

Karna,we are yet to modernise the forces,tx. to the excruciating delays of the MOD.A few critical requirements on the verge of finalisation were dumped,with a new round right from the beginning.Snakes and ladders at play! Example,the tankers for the IAF.The existing IL- 78s ( tanker versions of the 20 or so IL-76 transports ee have) were purchased from the Sovs. all assembled in Uzbekistan .New aircraft today are all Ru built,with major upgrades.The Ru tankers are 1/3the cost of Airbus birds,but vested interests don't want the vastly cheaper Ru birds.Airbus bird rejected on cost. To exclude the new upgraded ILs ,a new requirement that only twin-engined tankers be selected! It's like the AW helo scandal,shifting the goalposts. )problems being trotted out for aircraft over 2 decades old! So the end result is yet another stalemate in the MOD.IAF still languishing for tankers,extra AWACS, LUHs even after the KA-226 has been chosen,etc.,etc. For the IA ICVs are sorely needed,plus new ATGMS,arty.,etc.The new Kalashnikov-203 deal,still to be sealed.

End result, thanks to inordinate delays in decision making,we are not totally ready both in mil.hardpware,plus,border infra. for seamless logistics,etc. Neither do we have a counter move ready as our grand strategy vs China is supposedly absent or a work in progress. China has for long worked out its strategy how to contain India by diverting its attention to countering Paki terror,encircling us in the IOR with bases,assisting the movement of its energy supplies and maritime trade through the IOR chokepoints,etc.Plus,a huge naval base coming up at Gwadar at the entrance to the Gulf threatening our very own energy supplies while we dither about the Chahbahar port development in Iran!

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Jun 2020 15:45

priceless

naruto · Post by **naruto** » 06 Jun 2020 15:49

Not sure if this video is posted before. Seems like area between F4-F8.

https://twitter.com/shiweijueye0307/sta ... 09920?s=20

nam · Post by **nam** » 06 Jun 2020 16:46

I wonder from a PR point, if the Rafale had arrived in May, armed with Metoer, would created an interesting scenario.

Our pilots are trained to fly those 4 fighters.. A load of meteors from French stocks would have created an interesting situation..

Hope IAF is thinking about speeding up the deliveries and get them in to India now.. We need an element of BVR dominance..

Only if we had signed the contract 6 months earlier..

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 06 Jun 2020 16:52

chetak wrote:priceless

Their account got temporarily disabled due to another similar graphical tweet

Twitter Blocks Amul After 'Exit The Dragon?' Topical About China; Restores Later

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 06 Jun 2020 16:56

It's amazing how Google removes the RemoveChinaApps from playstore, and Twitter censors our dear precious Amul baby - when Google and Twitter are both blocked in China. Someone needs to remind them of this fact.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 06 Jun 2020 17:19

All force commands have completed their planning. Intel/Reconnaissance ongoing in fevered pace as per usual. For now everyone waiting to see where talks go. There's still lot of diplomatic cards left on the table. In any case, once winter sets there will be some sort of drawdown.

nam · Post by **nam** » 06 Jun 2020 19:00

The Chinese send a Major General to the talks.

Jokers don't even have a Corp sized force in Xinjang and they want to go against our entire Northen Command!

chetonzz · Post by **chetonzz** » 06 Jun 2020 19:14

yensoy wrote:It's amazing how Google removes the RemoveChinaApps from playstore, and Twitter censors our dear precious Amul baby - when Google and Twitter are both blocked in China. Someone needs to remind them of this fact.

I am sure that is work of mass reporting by chinese pet dogs aka porkistan

bharathp · Post by **bharathp** » 06 Jun 2020 20:03

Philip wrote: End result, thanks to inordinate delays in decision making,we are not totally ready both in mil.hardpware,plus,border infra. for seamless logistics,etc. Neither do we have a counter move ready as our grand strategy vs China is supposedly absent or a work in progress. China has for long worked out its strategy how to contain India by diverting its attention to countering Paki terror,encircling us in the IOR with bases,assisting the movement of its energy supplies and maritime trade through the IOR chokepoints,etc.Plus,a huge naval base coming up at Gwadar at the entrance to the Gulf threatening our very own energy supplies while we dither about the Chahbahar port development in Iran!

Philip,

Not sure why everyone keeps painting the chinese with "grand strategy at work" and "amazing synchrony" with pure cold calculation that never go wrong. I get it, china has amassed a lot of development and wealth. but to get here, it has to fight its own citizens in multiple places. HK is an example where the news come out, dont forget the iron curtain that china employs in the news that come out of china. all this is to hide the incompetencies and make ppl come up with claims that nothing wrong happens with China.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 06 Jun 2020 20:29

I think these things can help us in the standoff (Maybe its too late, and we have to fight with what we have, maybe more of it). But this is just a civilian, internet warrior wish list

Within 1-2 months these can make a difference (and can be acquired)
-Rafale (8 double seater and 3 single seater are currently flying in France, that is 12 out of 36 ordered or 33% of the order, the last double seater will be used to validate India specific techs), we can get delivery of 10 Rafales now. IAF personnel have been training for them for a year now. Hopefully enough to man these 10. With Meteor, and scalp, they will make a difference.
- If we have more IAF personnel trained, can we lease some extra Rafale?
- Russians have better BVR than R-77 that we had on MKI/Mig 29 upg. We ordered some 400 last year, no one knows what variant. We should go for better variants (AWACS killer, very long range BVR). I am of course assuming, integrating them with existing SU30MKI and Mig 29 should be fast (both the radar and missile being Russian). We were able to integrated LGB and designating pod in Mirage 2000 during Kargil in weeks. It is possible. Worse is, PLAAF may have these AA missiles and not having them with us puts us at disadvantage
- More Spice kits from Israel keeping targets in North and west into account. We may have just stocked for west.
- Lease some more M777 guns on urgent basis (as our 145 order will take time to fulfill, we may have 18 guns worth of inventory now), with some smart munitions'. They could make some difference (not a lot) at very high altitude
-Apaches (leased)? Till we complete our order of 22. Trained manpower could be the constraint.

Within 6-8 months
- qualify LCA -45 sq and move north or west
- Get few more Netras flying. We have 6-7 air fronts (each wide enough to need a dedicated AEW) - Gujarat border, Mid Rajasthan and JK/punjab (most active), AKsaichin, Uttrakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal. Because of low Squadron, a force multiplier like AWACS/AEW will help - you need at least 2 for each front, ideally 3 to take care of maintenance and upgrades. So minimum of 14 to 21 needed. We currently only have 5 AEW planes. We cannot afford these many of a-50, But Netra is cheaper. The plane itself is of low cost -in 20-30 million USD range, while the costliest addition to it is made in India. A 10 plane order can cover lot of air space. While we maybe very well covered with ground radar in western border, these in east and north will be helpful.
-Akash orders can be rushed and few more can be ready
- More Astras
-Negotiate Meteor for M2K?
- Refuellers -convert cheaper low mileage civilian second hand planes instead of uber gold plated refuller. Watch out for objections if only certain kind of planes are asked, a refuller is a refueller is a refuller. It does not have to be the best.
- Few regiments of LCH

Within 1-2 years
-Faster LCA, increase the order of LCA MK1A some 200 planes, justifying increased yearly capacity and produce some 30 of them every year. Each year we can get 2 slightly understrength SQ of these.
-More Netras
- SU30MKI super 30 upgrade (we have 270 of these) - Some fleet wide fast upgrade, mainly electronic codes and qualifications (More AA weapons, EW suite, A/G weapons), some fleet changes requiring hardware changes which will take longer (like MAWS) AND limited upgrade to gold plate them (AESA radar or anything to make them perhaps as good as Rafale)
- All Rafale (if good perhaps another more order)
- 21 Mig 29
-More AWACS
-Qualify all desi A/G weapons
-FastTrack SFDR
-3rd division of MSC
-LCH in good numbers

……..

Karna · Post by **Karna** » 06 Jun 2020 21:14

Philip wrote:Karna,we are yet to modernise the forces,tx. to the excruciating delays of the MOD.A few critical requirements on the verge of finalisation were dumped,with a new round right from the beginning.Snakes and ladders at play! Example,the tankers for the IAF.The existing IL- 78s ( tanker versions of the 20 or so IL-76 transports ee have) were purchased from the Sovs. all assembled in Uzbekistan .New aircraft today are all Ru built,with major upgrades.The Ru tankers are 1/3the cost of Airbus birds,but vested interests don't want the vastly cheaper Ru birds.Airbus bird rejected on cost. To exclude the new upgraded ILs ,a new requirement that only twin-engined tankers be selected! It's like the AW helo scandal,shifting the goalposts. )problems being trotted out for aircraft over 2 decades old! So the end result is yet another stalemate in the MOD.IAF still languishing for tankers,extra AWACS, LUHs even after the KA-226 has been chosen,etc.,etc. For the IA ICVs are sorely needed,plus new ATGMS,arty.,etc.The new Kalashnikov-203 deal,still to be sealed.

End result, thanks to inordinate delays in decision making,we are not totally ready both in mil.hardpware,plus,border infra. for seamless logistics,etc. Neither do we have a counter move ready as our grand strategy vs China is supposedly absent or a work in progress. China has for long worked out its strategy how to contain India by diverting its attention to countering Paki terror,encircling us in the IOR with bases,assisting the movement of its energy supplies and maritime trade through the IOR chokepoints,etc.Plus,a huge naval base coming up at Gwadar at the entrance to the Gulf threatening our very own energy supplies while we dither about the Chahbahar port development in Iran!

Thanks Philip.

This incident at the start of this decade has made it abundantly clear that cheen is our enemy no. 1 and cannot be trusted. If there was any doubt. George Fernandes said it almost 2 decades back.

It will use its lackey to keep us bogged down while using the peace at its border to grow economically stronger.

While we cannot catch up military in a short time given our current economic situation, i hope we as citizens get more involved and improve our understanding of cheen and its policies the way we do it for our western neighbour.

As India grows and aspire to become a super power such incidents will rise both covertly and overtly.

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 06 Jun 2020 21:28

Awesome discussion on current situation on RSTV, summarizing :

1) In spite of what is going on in China in terms of Covid , Taiwan and Hong Kong, china has decided to open up three fronts against India so it is definitely well thought out plan and not some local commander taking aggressive posture.

2) Area's are Nathula near Bhutan border in Sikkim, Pangong Tso Lake in lower Laddakh, and Galwan Valley in north Laddakh near In leh border junction very close to India, porkistan and china border junction

3) They have stretched point of conflict and making us think that this is not end of it and more is supposed to come.

4) Number of troops are more backed by more number of aircrafts in 7 air based in this region.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FVF06x ... _I&index=6

Now few points to connect of my own which did not cover the discussion :

1) Bajwa getting threee year extension, PM Niazi visiting ISI HQ multiple times and false flag operation did not go through
2) India getting the new UNSC non permanent seat
3) India also getting chair position in WHO
4) President Xi talking about its military to be prepared for war
5) Nepal using the ante for Chinese

What I am missing is:
1) what is the time of action in this region,
2)I know operation meghdoot happened in April so does that mean window will close by July ?
3)Do we control today area between apsarasas se, mamstong se and shahi kangri.
4) If Chinese want to do any adventure in sync with porkies what are the force level both can muster and what we can do without opening holes else where on our borders.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 06 Jun 2020 21:47

So whats the outcome of the talks? Should have filtered out by now.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 06 Jun 2020 22:02

Nothing will come from the talks, this situation will take a couple of months to resolve. We will have to do our counter moves while keeping the chai biscuit going

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 06 Jun 2020 22:42

nam wrote:The Chinese send a Major General to the talks.

Jokers don't even have a Corp sized force in Xinjang and they want to go against our entire Northen Command!

Nope China does not do anything without a plan. If news about China sending a Major General to the meeting is true then it is to convey a message that Indian Lt general rank is not important enough to be met by a Chinese higher up and that the his rank is only equal to that of a Chinese Major General.

I know it is childish but that is what eating polk lice does to the limited grey matter in between the chinky eyes.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 06 Jun 2020 22:49

if ONLY insults could win a war, the whole world would have beeN speaking Mardrin for the last 2000 years. But yes there is method in this madness. The border dispute is very apparent and we are well prepared. Can we win some area and loose some, of course and perhaps that is the extent it can go. In a stretched war, we have more chances to gain territory than the tallel then ocean and deeper than mountain fliend. The things become interesting if it is a two front war, our risks increases exponentially, (but so does for porkis and their pork eating friends). This also increases the chance of third party to wash their hands in these troubled water, mainly in our favor.

Still could there be a hidden game that we are not aware of?

Karna · Post by **Karna** » 06 Jun 2020 23:08

Vips wrote:
nam wrote:The Chinese send a Major General to the talks.

Jokers don't even have a Corp sized force in Xinjang and they want to go against our entire Northen Command!
Nope China does not do anything without a plan. If news about China sending a Major General to the meeting is true then it is to convey a message that Indian Lt general rank is not important enough to be met by a Chinese higher up and that the his rank is only equal to that of a Chinese Major General.

I know it is childish but that is what eating polk lice does to the limited grey matter in between the chinky eyes.

By Lt. Gen Dua

It's not the rank!

On our side a Lt Gen is incharge of the LAC. On their side a Maj Gen is incharge.

15 yrs ago I served for 3 yrs in Vietnam, Cambodia & Laos. In Laos, Army Chief was a Brigadier. When he visited other countries, he met army chiefs as equals, regardless of rank

chola · Post by **chola** » 06 Jun 2020 23:14

fanne wrote:I think these things can help us in the standoff (Maybe its too late, and we have to fight with what we have, maybe more of it). But this is just a civilian, internet warrior wish list

Within 1-2 months these can make a difference (and can be acquired)
-Rafale (8 double seater and 3 single seater are currently flying in France, that is 12 out of 36 ordered or 33% of the order, the last double seater will be used to validate India specific techs), we can get delivery of 10 Rafales now. IAF personnel have been training for them for a year now. Hopefully enough to man these 10. With Meteor, and scalp, they will make a difference.
- If we have more IAF personnel trained, can we lease some extra Rafale?
- Russians have better BVR than R-77 that we had on MKI/Mig 29 upg. We ordered some 400 last year, no one knows what variant. We should go for better variants (AWACS killer, very long range BVR). I am of course assuming, integrating them with existing SU30MKI and Mig 29 should be fast (both the radar and missile being Russian). We were able to integrated LGB and designating pod in Mirage 2000 during Kargil in weeks. It is possible. Worse is, PLAAF may have these AA missiles and not having them with us puts us at disadvantage
- More Spice kits from Israel keeping targets in North and west into account. We may have just stocked for west.
- Lease some more M777 guns on urgent basis (as our 145 order will take time to fulfill, we may have 18 guns worth of inventory now), with some smart munitions'. They could make some difference (not a lot) at very high altitude
-Apaches (leased)? Till we complete our order of 22. Trained manpower could be the constraint.

Within 6-8 months
- qualify LCA -45 sq and move north or west
- Get few more Netras flying. We have 6-7 air fronts (each wide enough to need a dedicated AEW) - Gujarat border, Mid Rajasthan and JK/punjab (most active), AKsaichin, Uttrakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal. Because of low Squadron, a force multiplier like AWACS/AEW will help - you need at least 2 for each front, ideally 3 to take care of maintenance and upgrades. So minimum of 14 to 21 needed. We currently only have 5 AEW planes. We cannot afford these many of a-50, But Netra is cheaper. The plane itself is of low cost -in 20-30 million USD range, while the costliest addition to it is made in India. A 10 plane order can cover lot of air space. While we maybe very well covered with ground radar in western border, these in east and north will be helpful.
-Akash orders can be rushed and few more can be ready
- More Astras
-Negotiate Meteor for M2K?
- Refuellers -convert cheaper low mileage civilian second hand planes instead of uber gold plated refuller. Watch out for objections if only certain kind of planes are asked, a refuller is a refueller is a refuller. It does not have to be the best.
- Few regiments of LCH

Within 1-2 years
-Faster LCA, increase the order of LCA MK1A some 200 planes, justifying increased yearly capacity and produce some 30 of them every year. Each year we can get 2 slightly understrength SQ of these.
-More Netras
- SU30MKI super 30 upgrade (we have 270 of these) - Some fleet wide fast upgrade, mainly electronic codes and qualifications (More AA weapons, EW suite, A/G weapons), some fleet changes requiring hardware changes which will take longer (like MAWS) AND limited upgrade to gold plate them (AESA radar or anything to make them perhaps as good as Rafale)
- All Rafale (if good perhaps another more order)
- 21 Mig 29
-More AWACS
-Qualify all desi A/G weapons
-FastTrack SFDR
-3rd division of MSC
-LCH in good numbers

……..

Saar, to be perfectly honest, our advantages are great NOW -- they will be less in the future when all those things come to fruition.

At Doklam our advantages were even greater but not fighting then meant that we gave them time to increase their numbers.

Not fighting now will mean they will have more time to increase in the future.

The numbers were conservatively 250K in our favor to about 21K for them before the latest round began.

The odds are not going to get much better than right NOW. 10 to 1 numerical advantage plus equipment parity (at least) across the board. The best time for a fight is now. IMHO.

But with everything at sticks-and-stones level we'll end up like Doklam. With the Pakis this kind of stuff would have ended in kinetics. With the chinis it's just jaw-jaw and maybe a few stones on a couple of pointy heads.

khan · Post by **khan** » 06 Jun 2020 23:30

Sravan wrote:Twitter is saying talks failed

This is good news, means there will be no sellout.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 06 Jun 2020 23:37

somdev wrote:My dream is to see Wakhan corridor as ingress/egress route for US forces to Afghanistan with a major US base in Skardu (relocate from Bagram) and leased by India. This way we can ensure peace in AF, kick out Pakistan from GB and China from Aksai Chin. India should work towards a roadmap with US to achieve this.

The Chinese are reportedly already patrolling inside the Wakhan corridor or at least keeping a close eye on it.

WION: Exclusive: Chinese security forces caught patrolling deep inside eastern Afghanistan

WP: In Central Asia’s forbidding highlands, a quiet newcomer: Chinese troops

basant · Post by **basant** » 06 Jun 2020 23:41

Tweet from Dr.APR

Dr. APR Flag of IndiaMaple leaf
@drapr007
#BREAKING : In the discussion that ended with a very harsh atmosphere, Lt Gen Harinder Singh has clearly told his Chinese counterpart that India will not stop constructions on the border. For the peace,Chinese troops will hv to move back on their positions b4 April2020.
(SOURCES)

nam · Post by **nam** » 07 Jun 2020 00:02

Vips wrote: Nope China does not do anything without a plan. If news about China sending a Major General to the meeting is true then it is to convey a message that Indian Lt general rank is not important enough to be met by a Chinese higher up and that the his rank is only equal to that of a Chinese Major General.

I know it is childish but that is what eating polk lice does to the limited grey matter in between the chinky eyes.

You are giving way too much IQ to the Chinese. If they were thinking, they would have expanded the Ngari airport before intruding. This is a regular bullying behavior.

The bullying is done because the Chinese know two things: We will not fire first and are too eager to call for a ceasefire if things escalate.

This allows the Chinese a window to bully. What will the Chinese do if we decide to intrude in another place along the 3000KM LAC?

naruto · Post by **naruto** » 07 Jun 2020 00:05

Vips wrote: Nope China does not do anything without a plan. If news about China sending a Major General to the meeting is true then it is to convey a message that Indian Lt general rank is not important enough to be met by a Chinese higher up and that the his rank is only equal to that of a Chinese Major General.
I know it is childish but that is what eating polk lice does to the limited grey matter in between the chinky eyes.

https://twitter.com/Ptr6Vb/status/12693 ... 21415?s=20

Lt Gen Vinod Bhatia
@Ptr6Vb·
"Pak DGMO is a Major General whereas Indian DGMO a lt General. We have been talking for ages. I should know as a former DGMO. What's this issue of politicising, lt General talking to Major General. Every army has it's structures, protocol and equivalence based on responsibility."

nam · Post by **nam** » 07 Jun 2020 00:08

chola wrote: The odds are not going to get much better than right NOW. 10 to 1 numerical advantage plus equipment parity (at least) across the board. The best time for a fight is now. IMHO.

But with everything at sticks-and-stones level we'll end up like Doklam. With the Pakis this kind of stuff would have ended in kinetics. With the chinis it's just jaw-jaw and maybe a few stones on a couple of pointy heads.

Actually the odd chance of any "win" for the chinese is now. There is a pandemic raging in India and our tech build up has not happened, along with the remaining 25%.

In 3 years (if GoI have any sense), we would see good change with Rafale, Astra, LCH, MRSAM,155MM, A2G weapons etc coming on board.

Our issue is lack of numbers in the bread & butter punishing kit. 155MM, BVR, LCH with ATGM, SAM & A2G. This is what will bring pain to PLA.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 07 Jun 2020 00:25

Saw news clip on TV of Bofors guns being towed to the stand off area. Compare this to the chinese who have deployed its truck mounted 155 MM guns on the border. They have also recently sold some units to the Porkis. DRDO and BEML has jointly developed a truck mounted howitzer and have showcased it in the last two Defense Expos. But nothing moves towards operationalizing and deployment till we learn a hard lesson.

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 07 Jun 2020 00:30

https://thekootneeti.in/2020/06/06/chin ... es-alarms/

Abhijit Iyer Mitra claims that Cheeni have stopped water flow in Galwan river, he has presented satellite images supposedly showing that. Wonder why the media is silent about that.

I also note a recent interview with Rajnath Singh, where he made a cryptic remark that this standoff is different (Bhinn).

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 07 Jun 2020 00:34

fanne wrote:if ONLY insults could win a war, the whole world would have beeN speaking Mardrin for the last 2000 years. But yes there is method in this madness. The border dispute is very apparent and we are well prepared. Can we win some area and loose some, of course and perhaps that is the extent it can go. In a stretched war, we have more chances to gain territory than the tallel then ocean and deeper than mountain fliend. The things become interesting if it is a two front war, our risks increases exponentially, (but so does for porkis and their pork eating friends). This also increases the chance of third party to wash their hands in these troubled water, mainly in our favor.

Say Amen to the US fleet in the Arabian sea and a free Balochistan and Sindhu Desh. BRI is vaporware and welcome to a land-locked Bakistan and China which is forever dependent on Malacca Straits.

Sravan · Post by **Sravan** » 07 Jun 2020 00:43

Let’s do this.

nam · Post by **nam** » 07 Jun 2020 00:45

We need people who can understand Chinese..

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 07 Jun 2020 01:13

nam wrote:
chola wrote: The odds are not going to get much better than right NOW. 10 to 1 numerical advantage plus equipment parity (at least) across the board. The best time for a fight is now. IMHO.

But with everything at sticks-and-stones level we'll end up like Doklam. With the Pakis this kind of stuff would have ended in kinetics. With the chinis it's just jaw-jaw and maybe a few stones on a couple of pointy heads.
Actually the odd chance of any "win" for the chinese is now. There is a pandemic raging in India and our tech build up has not happened, along with the remaining 25%.

In 3 years (if GoI have any sense), we would see good change with Rafale, Astra, LCH, MRSAM,155MM, A2G weapons etc coming on board.

Our issue is lack of numbers in the bread & butter punishing kit. 155MM, BVR, LCH with ATGM, SAM & A2G. This is what will bring pain to PLA.

1. Chinese wont be static in those 3 years, if anything they will be increasing their combat capabilities in our in the area facing us. And they do have a vast MIC with a huge array of weapons in various phases development or productionising, for every year we wait for adding Astra in numbers, PLAAF will be adding more Pl-15s and and so on. If anything we have been lucky that the PLA ground forces have got probably the least priority for modernisation and their AF infrastructure is lacking in TAR.
2. Doklam was 3 years ago - if the scales have not tipped in the last 3 years then there is no reason to believe it will in the next 3. This government is filling some important gaps and making incremental changes but this is nowhere close to levels actually needed.
3. Most importantly only the aggressor gets to choose the timing of conflict, not one who is just interested in maintaining status quo.
4. And thank you for not saying "We must wait till we become a 5 trillion economy" - this gets my goat the most

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Jun 2020 01:37

Milan Vego,veteran maritime expert has written an intriguing piece about the fading relevance of traditional "chokepoints"
which the RN during Adm.Fisher's days dominated.The Channel,Straits of Gibraltar,Cape of Good Hope,Suez Canal and Straits of Malacca made the RN masters of the maritime world. Bases for coaling,refuelling,etc. made ports and bases straddling the chokepoints key factors fot control. At sea replenishment has negated to an extent such dependence upon shore logistic facilities ,though bases are still required for ship repair,etc.

In today's world of sat imagery for surveillance,LR missiles delivered by multiple platforms including BMs, can target assets patrolling the chokepoints.With the establishment of several bases dotted all over the ICS, the PLAN for instance could circumvent the Malacca Straits using Lombok,etc.to enter the
IOR . The latest Indo- OZ logistics agreement indicates that we're trying to plug as many gaps as possible.

Vego writes that control of "strategic seas" are more relevant today than traditional control of " chokepoints" to interdict an enemy's naval forces and merchant fleet. This would require multiple assets of all types,aircraft,warships and subs/ UUVs to prosecute. The emperor Napoleon after Waterloo attributed his defeat on land to the superiority of the RN at sea,blocking the French almost everywhere.But this was accomplished not with scores of triple- deckers and ships of the line, but a multitude of smaller vessels patrolling the channel,etc. In WW2 the RN similarly used hundreds of small vessels of all types for patrols ,surveillance and anti-sub ops.One v.successful type was the MTB armed with torpedoes. The Iranians today are taking a leaf out of the MTB's legacy and are doing a great job in their waters of the Gulf with their scores of tiny RG bumboats,some with outboards carrying missiles. Dozens of such boats ," missile shooters" can be acquired for the price of just one capital ship. It's why I've been maintaining that EVERY platform that the IN and CG possess should be leveraged to accomplish more with bolt- on weaponry during a crisis. CG assets should be trained and tasked for mine warfare ops.The French have developed a new MCM system using UUVs that can be used by different types of platforms. These could complement dedicated MCM vessels. IN fast craft similarly could be designed to be armed with missiles when needed.Merchant vessels could be modified as arsenal ships,another option.There are already designs using containers available.

I've said earlier that using STUFT as the RN did in the Falklands, Ro- Ro vessels,ferries ,etc. could serve for amphib ops. Amphib flat- tops to also serve as light carriers in a role switch with modified flight deck designs ,plus ski-jumps. F-35Bs may also be an option one day. Nevertheless,apart from leveraging our various platforms to advantage, the key factor for IOR domination is the unsinkable carrier "INS India". From our dagger-like subcontinental landmass thrusting towards the IOR's centre, long-legged land- based aircraft and LRCMs must be able to reach as we did when the Bears were in service, an arc from S.Africa in the west to OZ and the ICS in the east and the approaches to the Gulf and Red Sea. Prosecuting all Chinese naval forces and its merchant fleet in the IOR should be our goal. The PLAN to counter this is rapidly establishing its own logistic bases at Djibouti,Gwadar/Jiwani,Hambantota,the Maldives ,Burma and accouting for the same on the E.African coast.

So thanks to development of LR ordnance and delivery systems,space-based surveillance, it will be easier for navies to counter or by- pass traditional chokepoints making the maritime dimension even more challenging.Whoever controls the chokepoints and " strategic seas" will determine the fate of the land conflict. In any spat with China in the Himalayas,the three services must work seamlessly together to achieve maritime control of not only the chokepoints but also the contiguous seas and oceans.

chola · Post by **chola** » 07 Jun 2020 01:39

nam wrote:
chola wrote: The odds are not going to get much better than right NOW. 10 to 1 numerical advantage plus equipment parity (at least) across the board. The best time for a fight is now. IMHO.

But with everything at sticks-and-stones level we'll end up like Doklam. With the Pakis this kind of stuff would have ended in kinetics. With the chinis it's just jaw-jaw and maybe a few stones on a couple of pointy heads.
Actually the odd chance of any "win" for the chinese is now. There is a pandemic raging in India and our tech build up has not happened, along with the remaining 25%.

In 3 years (if GoI have any sense), we would see good change with Rafale, Astra, LCH, MRSAM,155MM, A2G weapons etc coming on board.

Our issue is lack of numbers in the bread & butter punishing kit. 155MM, BVR, LCH with ATGM, SAM & A2G. This is what will bring pain to PLA.

Cheen has NO chance to win now. Not with India holding a 10-1 troops advantage. Those weapon systems, if they come, won't improve odds for India. The odds are already overwhelmingly in our favor.

All waiting for those uber weapons does is allow Cheen to build up numbers to lower those odds.

Sravan · Post by **Sravan** » 07 Jun 2020 01:42

chola wrote:
nam wrote:
Actually the odd chance of any "win" for the chinese is now. There is a pandemic raging in India and our tech build up has not happened, along with the remaining 25%.

In 3 years (if GoI have any sense), we would see good change with Rafale, Astra, LCH, MRSAM,155MM, A2G weapons etc coming on board.

Our issue is lack of numbers in the bread & butter punishing kit. 155MM, BVR, LCH with ATGM, SAM & A2G. This is what will bring pain to PLA.
Cheen has NO chance to win now. Not with India holding a 10-1 troops advantage. Those weapon systems, if they come, won't improve odds for India. The odds are already overwhelmingly in our favor.

All waiting for those uber weapons does is allow Cheen to build up numbers to lower those odds.

My point exactly. I think we should fire the first salvo at our time of choosing, get a strategic gain and call a cease fire. If they escalate, take Aksai Chin & Tibet

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 07 Jun 2020 01:57

Some footage from Pangong Tso lake (I hope its not recycled old footage).