India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[suryag]

Dileep and Manish Sharma Sir no more on this, frankly whether a blade grows or not we should not let go of one cent of land. Any more on this will earn all involved parties warnings

[Jwala]

@Suryag..Thanks; +1. As a venerable opposition leader said (IIRC) when then PM Nehru said that, he pointed to his bald head and said " Not a hair grows on my head does that mean I should cut it off". IMHO for far too long have we tolerated the encroachment of our land and isn't it time we said no more? Shouldn't we be playing the "great power" game if we do desire to be treated as one or am I mistaken? Bullies/Hitler/Xi need to be punched not via the Wuhan spirit but one that they cannot gloss over sadly enough.

[rsingh]

This may not be popular opinion here at BRF, but I don't see much objectionable in the rhetoric "not a blade of grass grows there" in a figurative way, ie something that offers no benefit to us. ....

The fresh water lakes, source of water to Brahmaputra river and other tributaries. It's selfish malyali exceptional hindu view to see any part of India as worthless.

Since Brahmaputra doesn't give water to my kerala, no skin of my nose.

And yet China is putting 100 billion trade on stake.......QED.

[tsarkar]

precisely what benefit we get (civil, economic, military whatever) and we will discuss the cost-benefit of going kinetic there.

Historically the Indian Subcontinent has good climate and rich in natural resources making its people prosperous. Central Asia wasn't.

This disparity between resources of the Indian Subcontinent and Central Asia has led to Central Asian migrations that have often had catastrophic effect on the population of the subcontinent. The Himalayas have been the Great Wall of India.

History records invasions of West Central Asians via the Khyber Pass. Scythians (Sakas), Huns, Iranians to as recent as Nadir Shah and Ahmed Shah Durrani. The last invaders in the group, Rohillas, were forcefully settled by the British in Rohilkhand (Bareily, Moradabad, Rampur).

The East Central Asians invaded via Khunjerab and Karakoram passes. This includes Kushans and East Turkestan / Moghulistan. While Babar came from Samarkand, the Moghul people were from East Turkestan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moghulistan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Turkestan

Today, paradoxically, our frontiers are held by Pakistanis (Khyber) and Chinese (Khunjerab, Kashgar). Unless we hold them in the Himalayas, they will simply roll down the Indian hinterland where no geographical barrier exists.

This is THE reason why Ladakh needs to be defended. Otherwise Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will be at risk that will lead to a domino effect on the Gangetic valley.

Secondly, the Indus and its tributary drainage is fed by meltwater from the Himalayan ranges. From a water resources perspective, holding the Ladakh Ranges is important for irrigation via the Indus & its tributaries drainage area.

Thirdly the historical boundaries of India were the Indus and Brahmaputra drainage area originating from Mansarovar westward and eastward respectively. The north western flow of the Indus and its tributaries cover the Ladakh area.

More than history, the drainage area & river basin is economically very valuable.





This is among the most valuable perennially irrigated territory in the world. Its defence lies at Ladakh.

Anyone who said "not a blade of grass grows there" didn't count the ice and meltwater feeding the worlds most prosperous irrigation system.

[pankajs]

China refusing to even discuss Pangong Tso standoff in disengagement talks

In Depsang, China has mobilised in larger numbers than before and is continuing to mount temporary transgressions into the Indian territory with vehicles. This has happened for years, with Indian troops usually fending them off, but the transgressions have not only increased in number this year but also strength and duration.

In the past month, the Chinese Army, enjoying far better surveillance in the area than the Indian side, has kept pinpoint tabs on the Indian troop patrols.

When Indian troop teams move out on foot, the Chinese side immediately deploys vehicular convoys to intercept the patrols and block their paths. These collisions have acquired a rhythm of their own for nearly a decade, but there is marked aggression to how the Chinese are asserting the patrol blocks in the last month

THIS is why we have no satellite image from OSINT ...

1. The Chinese, on their side, have relatively smooth access up to the Y-junction/Bottleneck area approachable via vehicle.
2. OTOH, Indian access to the Y-junction/Bottleneck area from where the grey area starts is through gullies and nallas i.e. only on foot.
3. The Chinese keep 24x7 surveillance on the approach to the Y-junction/Bottleneck area on the patrol path to PP-10.
4. The Chinese keep troops and vehicles on the ready to intercept the Indian troops from their side of the grey area.
5. As soon as the Chinese spot Indian patrol approaching the y-junction/Bottleneck area, they rush to that point via vehicle and block their path at the junction.
6. Earlier, it seems from the report, the Chinese would do this once in a while to remind the Indians that they retain the upper hand as far as the area beyond the y-junction/bottleneck is concerned while allowing most patrols to go about their business.
7. What seems to have changed for the last few months is that EVERY attempt by the Indian patrol has been stopped at the y-junction/Bottleneck area.

So while the Indian army have been prevented from patrolling beyond the y-junction/bottleneck area, the Chinese haven't really squatted in the grey zone beyond what they already had previously. The reason why we don't see OSINT satellite images or hyped talk of Depsang plains being taken over by the Chinese.

However, this does not mean that the status quo has not changed or will not change further for the worse. The terrain on our side of the grey area as compared to the Chinese and our limited surveillance capability has ensured that we are at a disadvantage in this area. GOI/IA would have to work out a plan to address this disadvantage.

Depsang plains might well be the area that GOI/IA chooses to react to the Chinese aggression at Pangang Tso area.

[srin]

[...]

This is among the most valuable perennially irrigated territory in the world. Its defence lies at Ladakh.

Anyone who said "not a blade of grass grows there" didn't count the ice and meltwater feeding the worlds most prosperous irrigation system.

I agree with most of what you have said. Except that control of Brahmaputra doesn't like in Ladakh. For that we need to ensure that Arunachal Pradesh becomes a bit bigger.

I presume that you have something in mind for what we need to do to ensure water security and control of Indus. I, for one, don't think it makes too much sense to get into a war just to push some soldiers from Finger 4 to Finger 8. If we are going to go to war, then something strategic such as securing river waters would be worth it.

[abhik]

Re Depsang, we have seen sat images of their build up in depth areas, just not on the actual patrol points (but with so much confusion around the locations of these points i'm not surprised).

Also logistically we are the weakest there (being practically the end of the road for us) + the reach of our air power is also weakest vs PLAAF airbases. Putting my armchair hat on, I would choose to do it in Chumar or Demchok where they are more vulnerable or Gogra/Hot Springs to split the PLA positions into 2 and then threaten the rear of their forces deployed in Depsang.

[Manish_Sharma]

India’s options around LAC: Going north with Brigadier RJS DhillonSandeep

Mukherjee Monday 3rd of August 2020 07:23 AM

Many of our readers, by now, know about the exploits of Brigadier Rupinder (RJS) Dhillon(retired) as a daring paratrooper. However, a little-known aspect of him is that Brig Dhillon has an excellent “feel of feet” of the line of actual control (LAC) in Ladakh – all the way from the Karakoram Pass down to Galwan valley. His stint with the Ladakh Scouts gave him a unique exposure along the LAC and “across”!

He is one of the few officers who has personally visited the sites of our defeat in 1962, across the LAC, like JAK-I and JAK-II.

Against the backdrop of gloom along the LAC these days, we asked him about our options. As China’s People’s Liberation Army sits pretty in our areas, on the wrong side of the LAC, in several places, we have chosen the path of lengthy negotiations. Until now, except for Galwan, the talks don’t seem to have made any headway.



Note: there are videos in the link where you can directly listen to Brigadier RJS Dhillon


https://www.indiasentinels.com/opinion/ ... Cc.twitter

[Hari Nair]

The post above needs editing - large portions are repeated, repeatedly!
What objections will the IAF have and what doctrine objections is Brig Dhillon talking about?

"He says the army should request the government to prevail upon the Indian Air Force to go beyond their doctrinaire objections to close ground support operations. This is a prerequisite for success."

The last I heard is that there is an institution of the CDS...

OT - In any case, during Kargil, it wasnt any "doctrine objection" etc - the Army wanted the IAF to employ attack helicopters and essentially escalate what was then being assessed and reported to the GoI until that point simply as in intrusion by irregular forces / terrorists.

[Manish_Sharma]

^My apologies sir, I posted it from my mobile.

It was difficult, I will just leave the post with link so it can be read on the original website.

[Shanmukh]

Hmmm even a boontown like Iraq was a threat to Sam so much so that they created multi generational damage through their cluster bombs. India is already a threat which is why Albright way back had said it should be split up into 29 countries.

Do you have a precise reference for Albright saying that India should be split into 29 countries?

[yensoy]

There you go #panchsheel

Chinese multinational civil construction firm Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co. Ltd. (STEC) has emerged as the lowest bidder among the five bidders for the construction of 5.6 km underground section between New Ashok Nagar and Sahibabad of Delhi-Meerut RRTS corridor

https://www.urbantransportnews.com/stec ... rrts-line/

Better we get them to build infra for us than send us stuffed toys, furniture and low end consumer goods.

That was quick https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 324296.cms

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/NarangVipin/status/ ... 7148939264

Vipin Narang @NarangVipin

The Depsang incursion is an even bigger strategic problem for India. Don’t sleep on that one.

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/ ... 0894585858

Jeff M. Smith @Cold_Peace_

That's a real possibility. But I haven't (yet) seen imaging confirming where the Chinese are at Depsang/what they're doing. And I've grown skeptical of some of the anonymous source reporting. Images we do have in Ladakh (outside Pangong) show the Chinese on their side of the LAC.

Exactly the conclusion that one would reach just based on the what OSINT handles choose to focus on and what they did not! Also, confirmed by a critical analysis of the India Today report that I did a few posts back.

We have a problem at Depsang too it does not compare to the situation at Pangang Tso.

[suryag]

https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/129 ... 16/photo/2 - this is as bad ass as it gets, most of them getting rakhis tied while being barefooted/socks at close to 4deg celsius (?), shows the will and the desire to stand by values, tradition and culture despite difficulties.

[nam]

The peculiar "status quo" that we have on the LAC, means any military action to achieve "status quo" will not achieve the status quo!

If we use force to push the Chinis from F4 to F8, we would have achieved status quo. From our perspective. Pre-april status quo is Chinis having access to F4! This means we have to allow them access to F4! Otherwise we will be blamed for changing the status quo!

In case we decide to blow at F8, then we better get ready for LAC wide war.

Fundamentally there cannot be a localized "lakeside" action. It will be LAC wide land grab war.

[ramana]

One possibility is the OSINT images being posted are psy-ops to precipitate hostilities and or disinofrmation.

Only people following this OSINT garbage are Indians.

I urger people only to post RohitVats analysis.
Can follow on Twitter

@KesariDhwaj

[Jarita]

Hmmm even a boontown like Iraq was a threat to Sam so much so that they created multi generational damage through their cluster bombs. India is already a threat which is why Albright way back had said it should be split up into 29 countries.

Do you have a precise reference for Albright saying that India should be split into 29 countries?

Shanmukh - I am not certain if it is 26 or 29. Somewhere in that vicinity.
As far as the reference is concerned, it was during one of her talks on Kashmir and during the timeframe when she was Secy of State, somewhere in 1997/98. She was consistently disparaging about India as a civilizational state throughout the timeframe of her office. It's interesting to see their likes (Kissinger and her) speak with their forked tongue now.
I am afraid that this information which was available online even 5-6 years when I had posted it on BR, does not seem to be as readily available now.
Perhaps other posters will have access to this, especially those who lived and tracked that era.

[nam]

Our hollow efforts towards building a MIC has now resulted in such a lost opportunity to increase influence across ASEAN region.

PH, Indonesia etc are now facing the brunt of Chini aggression and are looking to get some good quality kit. They cannot fully depend on Russia (due to Chini influence). They are trying to get American kit, good but expensive.

They would love to have good quality kit at cheaper rate, which would allow us to build up without breaking the bank.

We are in the perfect position, except we have nothing to show for a MIC.

[pandyan]

Ladakh in winter

Migration of the Changthang Nomads | Living with the Changpas of Ladakh


Admins - hope it is okay to post occasional travel videos here. It gives a sense of the terrain and challenges.

[abhik]

India Today (Col Vinayak Bhat): China’s Kashgar airbase: Underground vaults hint at nuclear facilities, H-6 bombers seen since early June
OK this ("nuclear facilities") is a little over the top, it is probably just to store air dropped munitions (most airbases have them). Building of HAS is definitely new, we can expect them to harden the entire airbases over the next few months/year.

Also just noticed that G-Earth is updating the pics of the 2 Air bases (Hotan and Kashgar) every month or two, so something to keep an eye out for (all the famous OSINT handles are taking it off this source that is open to all).

[KL Dubey]

We have a problem at Depsang too it does not compare to the situation at Pangang Tso.

From the horse's mouth:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 333319.cms

At present, we are in a position of strength in the Depsang Plains and DBO area now and we are not in a hurry to discuss that with the Chinese. Let the disengagement (from Finger area and other friction points) first take place and then we can talk about de-escalation there also, sources said.

[Gyan]

The post above needs editing - large portions are repeated, repeatedly!
What objections will the IAF have and what doctrine objections is Brig Dhillon talking about?

"He says the army should request the government to prevail upon the Indian Air Force to go beyond their doctrinaire objections to close ground support operations. This is a prerequisite for success."

The last I heard is that there is an institution of the CDS...

OT - In any case, during Kargil, it wasnt any "doctrine objection" etc - the Army wanted the IAF to employ attack helicopters and essentially escalate what was then being assessed and reported to the GoI until that point simply as in intrusion by irregular forces / terrorists.

There was a very technical & detailed Article by Air Chief about difficulties of using attack helicopters in mountains in IDR during Kargill. IAF always understood the difficulties but Army, per him, was not understanding the operational issues involved. IAF would prove to be correct when Mi-17 was shot down as also Mig-21.

Per him, IAF had no problem with CAS, but it could not be only casual CAS, or only by Helos. It had to be large scale attacks with potential of escalation

[pankajs]

Acknowledgment of a lack of 24x7 surveillance at LAC.

https://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status ... 8233853954

Nitin A. Gokhale @nitingokhale

‘The need for ground level commanders to have domain awareness in their area of responsibility, was felt acutely during the on-going standoff with the PLA at various friction points in Ladakh.’

‘Top on the list are 200 tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to bolster the ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) capacity of frontline troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC)’ @nitingokhale

[Vips]

What is the range of these tactical UAV's ? Looking at the big number i assume these are the ones which fly short distances.If indeed these are for short distances then Chinese have already hoodwinked us into an agreement in not using UAV's within 10 km of LAC as a confidence building measure.

[k prasad]

Well, China used them during the Galwan clashes, so I guess that rule is in the paper-shredder. It might also depend upon the type of UAV specified. Maybe the ban was on MALE or fixed wing UAVs, rather than mini-drones.

[Prem Kumar]

The more news that comes out, the more the shoddiness of our military leadership is exposed:

1) "Army acutely feeling the need for CAS by the Air Force". Duh! Wasn't this the whole lesson learnt from Kargil? Yet we are here with LCH induction hanging fire, which would have given the Army the autonomy it needed. Are we so pathetic that our generals can't fight even their last wars?

2) UAVs: duh, once again! Rustom is gathering rust and our UAV holdings (across all types) are woefully inadequate for a 2-front war. Nothing has been done about it. The small/micro UAV segment is one where our private industry could have churned out drones by the 100s using COTS components. But cometh the war, cometh the emergency purchases of foreign maal.

For all their talk of a 2-front war (2.5, if you want to believe the hyperbole), the planning is barely adequate for a 1-front war. The military leadership, CSG, MoD must all hang their heads in shame.

[pankajs]

China refusing to even discuss Pangong Tso standoff in disengagement talks

THIS is why we have no satellite image from OSINT ...

1. The Chinese, on their side, have relatively smooth access up to the Y-junction/Bottleneck area approachable via vehicle.
2. OTOH, Indian access to the Y-junction/Bottleneck area from where the grey area starts is through gullies and nallas i.e. only on foot.
3. The Chinese keep 24x7 surveillance on the approach to the Y-junction/Bottleneck area on the patrol path to PP-10.
4. The Chinese keep troops and vehicles on the ready to intercept the Indian troops from their side of the grey area.
5. As soon as the Chinese spot Indian patrol approaching the y-junction/Bottleneck area, they rush to that point via vehicle and block their path at the junction.
6. Earlier, it seems from the report, the Chinese would do this once in a while to remind the Indians that they retain the upper hand as far as the area beyond the y-junction/bottleneck is concerned while allowing most patrols to go about their business.
7. What seems to have changed for the last few months is that EVERY attempt by the Indian patrol has been stopped at the y-junction/Bottleneck area.

So while the Indian army have been prevented from patrolling beyond the y-junction/bottleneck area, the Chinese haven't really squatted in the grey zone beyond what they already had previously. The reason why we don't see OSINT satellite images or hyped talk of Depsang plains being taken over by the Chinese.

However, this does not mean that the status quo has not changed or will not change further for the worse. The terrain on our side of the grey area as compared to the Chinese and our limited surveillance capability has ensured that we are at a disadvantage in this area. GOI/IA would have to work out a plan to address this disadvantage.

Depsang plains might well be the area that GOI/IA chooses to react to the Chinese aggression at Pangang Tso area.

More confirmation ...
https://twitter.com/SimTack/status/1290285814350569472

Sim Tack @SimTack

For what it's worth, in imagery that @detresfa_ and myself have been investigating over the past month, China is clearly seen expanding positions in the Depsang area, but that is located at the facilities they already had there, no evidence of a territorial expansion.

[Prem Kumar]

Let me elaborate on our generals' inability to even fight their last wars. What were some of the key lessons from Kargil:

1) Intelligence failure: the need for humint, elint/sigint, UAVs, satellites, AWACS etc. Where are we today with the Chinese incursion? Same old intel failure. Netra, UAV holdings are all woefully inadequate. What the NTRO was doing with the satellite data - God only knows

2) CAS by the Air Force: the entire impetus for LCH (& IA's independence) was premised on this. Where are we today?

3) Artillery: the God of War. Thankfully, not as bad as the LCH (thanks to M777) but still not even close to where we need to be. 20 years after Kargil!

4) Precision guided munitions: one area where the lessons learnt have been incorporated

5) War wastage reserves, ammunition holdings etc: once again, an area where we have done a good job, thanks to Parikkar. Our dependence on a capable individual rather than on institutions

This crisis will pass. We will chai-biskoot again till the next crisis.

[schinnas]

Kargil was resulted in several reforms but they were mainly towards western front and are also little dated now. Still, our relative positioning and intelligence w.r.to Western front is much better now thanks to Kargil.

Our satellite assets were pointed primarily towards western neighbor and Afghanistan. This is the first major truly serious confrontation on the Northern front with China. It will help usher in long term changes to diplomacy, economic policy, strategy and armaments and intelligence and we are already seeing evidence of it. We have very competent NSA, CDS and service chiefs and one can be sure that most of the learning wouldn't go waste.

When it comes to satellites, not all our satellites are all weather satellites and hence ineffective against northern border. The few all weather satellites we have are not geo stationary (meaning they pass through the territory only at specific timings and the frequency may not sufficient for certain intelligence. Also given the tall steep mountains, satellites may not have visibility to all areas. Besides they are likely optimized for the Western front and reorienting satellites to another path will reduce their longevity as they need to burn up their fuel. We do have good ELINT with P8-Is but what we need the most are high endurance surveillance drones that are controlled by local commanders. Even China with all its satellites is relying heavily on drones for surveillance. At a more tactical level, we need smaller cheap quad-copter drones with night vision and thermal vision cameras to detect intrusions, with enough anti-jamming and encrypted live feed capabilities. It should be available on demand to every company. There was some PR about a Bharat drone for this purpose but no further news / validation of its capabilities in public.

While expensive armed drones like Predator can be centralized, surveillance drones need to be totally decentralized. Ideally every regiment on critical duty should have access to a few MALE (medium altitude long endurance) all weather surveillance drones to ensure 24x7 surveillance of their area of operation & interest and some options for cheaper combat drones and kamakazi drones to carry out certain missions. Another huge gap India has on its Northern front is the lack of HUMINT. Primarily because those areas aren't populated and hence we cannot grooms assets there.

[pankajs]

^^
Most points raised in the last but one post are responsibility/faliure of the GOI and not the Generals. Fixing blame at the correct door is a prerequisite to a proper solution.

NDA-II was much better than UPA, it did not move fast enough on gaps even when the took care of basic and speeded infra. Our politics of hope has come back to bite us.

[habal]

Refer to Serpentza videos where he says chinese economy went into recession two years ago. He has a ground level view and not CCP-endorsed viewpoint which will say that inspite of everything China is rising etc, And now with covid pandemic their economy is surely in dire straits with no scope of recovery so the wars at the border are the ultimate distraction for Xi esp to ensure internal dissent is curbed on pretext of war.

[pankajs]

Possible but there is also another possibility ...

A heavily debt driven economy already on a weak wicket is suddenly hit by a COVID driven decoupling means that the Chinese economy is going into a tailspin and will loose the relative power differential with its neighbors and trading powers. In effect this is the best time for China to seal a deal on its own turn.

The current skirmish was to force a LAC deal on India on the Chinese terms when the power differential is best it has been or likely to be. When the $hitstorm finally takes down the Chinese dream of Global domination expect another final desperate lashing out to retrieve the situation within a decade or so.

[SSridhar]

Following from CENJWOS (Centre for Joint Warfare Studies)
EAST LADAKH LAC STANDOFFS: WINTER IS COMING - Lt. Gen. PR Kumar - Former DGMO

Opportunities will come its way for the Indian Armed Forces. Army must continue aggressive patrolling in East Ladakh and challenged areas, always posing a threat to the Chinese deployed forward. With synergized multi-service operations and invaluable support from IAF, we should in phases isolate and evict, or force Chinese troops to withdraw to status quo locations; or even look for quid pro quo options of occupying sensitive territory across the LAC, employing the integrated battle groups (IBGs). India must be more than ready to trade fire to achieve its mission of eviction. India and the Indian Army know that next summer physical eviction of Chinese will get even more challenging. It will have to be hard political and diplomatic maneuvering (again number of options like review position on Tibet, Hongkong, Taiwan) which is not going to be easy given the disadvantageous ground situation. The Chinese, one would say have boxed themselves into a corner. They did not want a conflict and will avoid one at all costs. A stalemate would definitely constitute a defeat in strategic and international parlance for China, while for India it will further showcase the emergence of a resurgent, confident new India. For this to become a reality India has to buckle down, show resolve and endurance, weather the winter and Chinese storm, and most importantly show tremendous faith in its armed forces to deliver.

It is going to be a very interesting winter to come, and as I have said before it is going to be a defining moment in our history having far greater implications than tactical, and if we come out of it achieving our national and military objective, a stronger, vibrant new India will be ready to take off in the global platform. It is not going to be easy for the very reason I enumerated and Chinese will know it better than most. But while it is a great challenge for the nation and our Armed Forces it is doable with planning, resolve and will, as failing is not an option and will set us back strategically and we must be ready for many more similar summers, this time from both China and Pakistan. So, prevail we must. Remember, even with requisite comprehensive national power, deterrence power may not be forthcoming automatically. For this we have to build Deterrence reputation where our adversaries know that we will use our deterrence capabilities when our national interests are at stake. It is time to enhance our deterrence reputation.

[nam]

Trying to achieve status quo by any means, includes NOT blocking Chinese patrols to their claim lines! Otherwise it would be a change in status quo by us.

The whole thing is convoluted because there is the no agreed LAC. There cannot be the old status quo anymore. The only way we can get back to old status quo is Chinis going back.

GoI needs to laid down clearly what is our new status quo.

[williams]

Trying to achieve the status quo by any means, includes NOT blocking Chinese patrols to their claim lines! Otherwise, it would be a change in the status quo by us.

Regimes like the Chins don't care about Moral ascendency. It is a plain land grab and power play. It is our MEA Babus types, which unfortunately includes some of the senior retired military folks in places like CSG who think that the world cares about moral ascendency. No one cares. Just do the reverse of what the Chins did, occupy whatever is strategically relevant, and then keep talking. Of course, keep the casualties to a minimum and reduce the risk of escalation. They are not going to agree on anything until you give them a reason to budge. It sounds like they don't have that reason despite whatever events occurred so far.

[Cain Marko]

Refer to Serpentza videos where he says chinese economy went into recession two years ago. He has a ground level view and not CCP-endorsed viewpoint which will say that inspite of everything China is rising etc, And now with covid pandemic their economy is surely in dire straits with no scope of recovery so the wars at the border are the ultimate distraction for Xi esp to ensure internal dissent is curbed on pretext of war.

This is what I've been thinking too. There is little reason otherwise too prosecute such misadventures. War is economics by another name....

[RajaRudra]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 340900.cms

May be, we are eagerly waiting for winter to fully set. To do one more Siachin this time in LAC.
We may have already lost Finger 5 to 8, now we need to counter this by doing Salami Slicing on somewhere.

[samirdiw]

The only value of history is what it can teach us. It seems like that we in India refuse to learn from it. If the way I used to learn history in school is any indication i.e. just learning "who did what in what year?" instead of "why it happened and what could have overcome it?" it is clear why we are stuck in this malady today. History lessons can also be learnt from the fate of others. This compounded by the fact that our diverse population makes reading history even more difficult.

There are a few specific lessons that one can observe from the past and then apply to our case
1. Whether in sports or battle one becomes stronger by keep brushing/tackling at a reasonable level with someone or something stronger. It is basic evolution. Science, Sports and History both are our teachers here.It is why sportsmen practice with better opponents, students go to better schools etc. Is there any counter to this basic thought that is proved time and time again.
Instead we have focused on Pakistan. Pakistan is weaker, smaller., never going to challenge us. Are there threats we have to bother about - Yes but it has to be tackled mostly ideologically. If I were Chinese wouldn't I want my opponent to focus elsewhere and aim lower?


2. Unite your population by giving them the a different target that is common. Alexander first consolidated his power at home and then stretched outwards. If he was content to stay at home the macedonians wouldn't see him as a potential to take their name forward and likely would have challenged him like many in the past. He gave them a new direction and potential glory to chase. To take things home a little closer in 1857 the hindus and the muslims coming together also gave shivers to the British. Focusing towards China unites us. Focusing towards Paistan divides us. Also tie with 1 above.


3. A neutral/good persons/neighbor's problem is my problem. A hostile opponent coming towards my direction will become my problem tomorrow. The whole history of Chankya is based on this. His anger towards Nanda not bothering about potential problems to the kingdoms in the border. We let go Tibet and see how it is biting us. What land exactly is important? Just a place where we can make a house? Then no wonder Indians in the past have been content in living under others as long as they are left to their own devices.
Instead of history if we want nature to teach us, the animals that have been domesticated have ended up being source of energy/food/entertainment for us. Of the ones that opposed some may have perished but the others also live independently instead of being cooped in the slaughterhouse. Are these lessons not enough for nature/history to teach us.
Why did Ram (India) help Sugreeva (Tibet) against Bali (China) if it was not his problem but a fight between two brothers. Why are Hindus reluctant to learn from their own books while Chinese and Muslims always try to draw lessons?


4. Never allow the bully to save face. Never placate the bully through weakness. Praise is different it doesn't cost anything. This is more something that is known by street kids and not PHD holders and this is why our PHD holding geek MFA's fails.
What do we do? Time and time again we look for ways to save face for China. No opponent is worthy of respect if they are so concerned about your loss of face. Understand that the bully will hit hard but the bully after a couple of bashes back will know that it will get its face muddy and think a few times before messing with you. If you keep on trying to find ways out what is the incentive for the bully to not mess with you


5. Kill the chicken to scare the monkey. Yes we can draw the lessons from our neighbor but we can apply it in the reverse. Beat the Money to kill/scare the Chicken. By pushing China away from Tibet/Xijiang, Pakistan will never have a land border with China, see what happens when you mess with India and completely have amnesia about this area. Without any external support it may also crumble on its own with very little push. Also see 1 and 2 above.

Bottom line you have to shed blood today for a better future tomorrow as long as you do it with a long term goal and with focus.

[Gyan]

We have to study how Sikhs & Marathas were able to defeat the same Muslim forces which won against bigger Hindu Kings for a millennium

[Shanmukh]

Do you have a precise reference for Albright saying that India should be split into 29 countries?

Shanmukh - I am not certain if it is 26 or 29. Somewhere in that vicinity.
As far as the reference is concerned, it was during one of her talks on Kashmir and during the timeframe when she was Secy of State, somewhere in 1997/98. She was consistently disparaging about India as a civilizational state throughout the timeframe of her office. It's interesting to see their likes (Kissinger and her) speak with their forked tongue now.
I am afraid that this information which was available online even 5-6 years when I had posted it on BR, does not seem to be as readily available now.
Perhaps other posters will have access to this, especially those who lived and tracked that era.

Thanks. Please lemme know if you do find a precise reference. Would be good to keep these bits of information archived.