India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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KL Dubey
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KL Dubey » 09 Jun 2020 01:33

Rakesh wrote:Sravan, in light of your strong background & experience, I think it is best that you touch base with the decision makers in India.

:rotfl:

https://mod.gov.in/dod/officer_directory

Your good self may kindly provide above information to help future visitors.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby shaun » 09 Jun 2020 01:43

Considering Gobar Times , deterrence might work with Chinese , using both mobilization of assets and it's relevant PR , magnifying it 10 times while GOI can play test matches at the negotiation table. It definitely will give bargaing power to us.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 09 Jun 2020 02:03

khan wrote:Its a low risk, high-reward thing for them. There is almost no risk of India starting a war over 8 km of desert and until the roads are built, India can't really do the same thing.

The only way India can retaliate is indirectly, by boosting the forward deployment and forcing the Chinese to match the deployment levels.

India needs to finish building the roads ASAP and get logistical parity with the Chinese. Then India can also start playing this game.


The chini can only get the reward if the intrusion was never made public. It was all behind the scene. Once it was public, GoI cannot be seen to give away any land.

The Chini ambassador would know this simple fact.

If we didn't have enough troops, the Chini would not have brought in more men in civilians flights. The Chinis know we maintain large amount of troops on LAC.

What if the "bad & evil modi" escalate? Any sane general in PLA would have prepared for all possible eventualities before creating a standoff.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ManuJ » 09 Jun 2020 02:39

khan wrote:India needs to finish building the roads ASAP and get logistical parity with the Chinese. Then India can also start playing this game.

Exactly. And get its economy booming again and build its MIC ecosystem.

BTW, even with the new road, the fact is that the DBO plateau is physically separate from the rest of Ladakh and a natural part of the Aksai Chin area and the larger Tibetan plateau. Which means its going to be a difficult area for India to defend in a major conflict. India needs to create more options for itself that would allow it to quickly induct a large number of forces into the DBO and Aksai Chin area.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 09 Jun 2020 02:48

Here is another gem.

China mobilises thousands of troops, armoured vehicles near border with India

Major Colonel Mao Lei, head of a PLA Air Force brigade training department that led the operation in the northwest, said it had made “significant breakthroughs” in terms of the scale of mobilised troops and how they were transported.

“[Using civilian transport] substantially expanded our means of transporting forces and increased efficiency in manoeuvring an entire organisation of troops,” Mao told CCTV.


Using civilian transports to move troops is a significant breakthrough. In 2020.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Vips » 09 Jun 2020 03:03

Mort Walker wrote:So far only 145 Dhanush have been ordered and more like 1,450 are needed. If weight is an issue, the DRDO with the gun carriage factory in Jabalpur could have made a lightweight version, this would have been better than buying the M777. Neither the M777 or Dhanush are in enough numbers. When will India's leadership wake up?


In the India china border it is the M777 that will be a game changer. US has a lot of surplus M777 lying around in Afghnaistan. As far as Dhanush is concerned 90% of its parts are local. It will all come down to how fast the OFB can crank it out in numbers.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chola » 09 Jun 2020 03:15

nam wrote:
khan wrote:Its a low risk, high-reward thing for them. There is almost no risk of India starting a war over 8 km of desert and until the roads are built, India can't really do the same thing.

The only way India can retaliate is indirectly, by boosting the forward deployment and forcing the Chinese to match the deployment levels.

India needs to finish building the roads ASAP and get logistical parity with the Chinese. Then India can also start playing this game.


The chini can only get the reward if the intrusion was never made public. It was all behind the scene. Once it was public, GoI cannot be seen to give away any land.

The Chini ambassador would know this simple fact.

If we didn't have enough troops, the Chini would not have brought in more men in civilians flights. The Chinis know we maintain large amount of troops on LAC.

What if the "bad & evil modi" escalate? Any sane general in PLA would have prepared for all possible eventualities before creating a standoff.


What are you hinting at, Nam ji? Either the chini generals are crazy or the "bad & evil modi" might have put them in this position with some chankian maneuvers!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Philip » 09 Jun 2020 04:01

The pic. of a 155mm gun in the mountains.What's happened to the145 M-177 light howitzers? Have all come? Another batch of the same is required.There was also a desi light gun by one of the pvt. players developed.M-177s are in service with some countries.
We should aim for leasing some urgently until new ones arrive. When we acquired the SU-30s,the first few sqds. were not of the eventual MKI std. They were all returned after new Flankers were built and received by the IAF. I don't know why in the Rafale deal we did not ask for at least one sqd. of vanilla Raffys to be despatched first,until the new-built ones to IAF specs arrived.
If I was one of the decision makers,I would advise this course of action.Lease sev. sqds. of aircraft,helos,arty,maritime strike Backfires,subs,etc.as of yesterday. I remember a report that even F-18SHs were available at short notice. If memory serves me right,they didn't perform too well at high alt. in the MMRCA 1.0 trials ,the latest version may have higher powered engines/ performance,but it shows what is possible. India has to build our own " Great Wall" of steel against the Chin barbarians.

One item has proved exceptionally useful in the mountains,the C-130J. These provide the air bridge,the lifeline along with other transports,but the Hercules has exceptional ability to land and take off from short airstrips. Some are also tasked for our spl.forces,etc. We need more of them,plus a large qty. of AVs too,from light tanks ,ICVs,and MBTs like T-72 s where operable.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 09 Jun 2020 05:42

Troop movements halted at India-China standoff points but defences are up deep inside

Interesting

There hasn’t been any activity at the four standoff points along the Line of Actual Control after Indian and Chinese military commanders held a 7-hour-long ice-breaking meeting over the weekend, people familiar with the developments told Hindustan Times on Monday.

India, which was the first to speak about the meeting at the Moldo-Chushul border meeting point some 14,000 feet above sea level, had underlined on Sunday that the two sides had agreed to peacefully resolve the situation. On Monday, the Chinese foreign ministry statement about the discussions over the weekend made the same point.

To be sure, the two sides are not anywhere close to a resolution of the standoff at three points in the Galwan valley and the fourth, near Pangong Lake.

Saturday’s meeting between Lt Gen Harinder Singh, commander of Leh-based 14 Corps, and a Chinese delegation headed by Maj Gen Liu Lin, commander of the South Xinjiang military region, agreed to keep talking at the brigade and battalion commander level.

The Indian assessment is that the shortest time frame that one could look at for a resolution is next month, if not later. That would be comparable to the time taken to end the Doklam standoff that lasted 73 days and ended only after conversations at the highest level.

The Indian side, however, has taken note of a defensive military buildup by the People’s Liberation Army in places such as Kashgar, the headquarters of the PLA’s Xinjiang military district some 480 km from the standoff points along the LAC.

An Indian official said the buildup at the district headquarters had happened over the last few weeks and days, around the time that China had been talking about dialogue to resolve the standoff that started from a May 5 clash between soldiers at one location in eastern Ladakh.

According to senior indian officials, India had responded and mobilised its troops also.

“Our buildup matches the Chinese deployment, if not more, in terms of troops, support elements, force multipliers and aerial support,” a senior official said.

Chinese troops did have an advantage in the initial days of the standoff when its soldiers took the first steps to adopt an aggressive stance at Pangong lake and Galwan valley. But the Indian deployment was beefed up rapidly after additional troops underwent the seven days of acclimatization required to enable them to operate at 16,000 feet height.

One official said the Chinese forces had been putting pressure on the Chip Chap river-Karakoram-Trig heights-Galwan-Depsang bulge axis after the Indian Air Force revived the Daulat Beg Oldie airfield by landing an AN-32 transport aircraft in May 2008. After a standoff with Chinese troops in April 2013, the Indian Air Force had landed the Lockheed Martin C-130J Super Hercules four-engine military transport aircraft as well.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby samirdiw » 09 Jun 2020 07:13

nam wrote:Here is what will happen if we "liberate" let's say Lhasa.

With PLA been driven out of Lhasa, it will become open season for the Chinese. All they have to do is keep firing their BM & CM from Chengdu fundamentally ravaging the entire city. Along with Tibetans, we will loosing troops, who have to be deployed to counter any future PLA invasion.

And what do we get in return? The "joy" of liberating what would be a barren Lhasa?


If China can fire BM & CM from Chengdu to Lhasa what prevents us from firing missiles back at Chengdu? They have a lot more to lose. Two can play the same game.
There is nobody being childish here just those limited by their thinking.

There are two strains of thought and both should be discussed at length. Discussion here doesn't mean that that's the action the govt will take.
1. Plan for defending well and give the Chinese a bloody nose. Let China decide the time, place and narrative in case of any success in war then return the land captured. In case we lose land then patrol upto the new LAC until the next attempt by China. Public will find reasons to forget bad stuff. This seems to be the method since '62 and most folks seem to be comfortable with this.

2. Take the battle to the enemy's hand. Capture and hold land until there is about equal distance from the populations from both sides making it difficult for both to attack the other. This probably needs more planning both strategically, tactically, logistically, specific weaponry and willpower and looks like most in the establishment and public are not comfortable with this.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby suryag » 09 Jun 2020 08:31

Folks too much of fantasy going on here, curtail it please(I am surprised no one has captured Beijing). I will revive the military scenarios thread where creative people can line up their thoughts. Please limit this thread to factual and analytical assessment of deployments etc not unobtainium options

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby khan » 09 Jun 2020 08:56

I would be more interested in more realistic scenarios to roll back the gains and then some. Take advantage of a snowstorm & in the dead of winter quietly smuggle in 2000 people for week and have them take apart the Chinese infrastructure with some crowbars? It will take the Chinese at least that long to bring in 2000 people of their own to fight back.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ShauryaT » 09 Jun 2020 09:14

nam wrote:Would anyone have a theory on why does the PLA think it can create a standoff and get what it wants? Why are they so confident that India will not escalate? or even do a counter incursion?

I am trying to understand the reason behind their confidence.

I can see Chinis doing something like this with smaller countries. They could not get what they in Doklam. It is not as if India will agree to change a status quo so openly, specially a one which was using force.

They may have demands, but i am not sure why are they so confident of getting whatever they want.

Trying to understand why would Chini make a enemy of a it's second largest market after US.
It is to show us our place! It is to demonstrate to us that PRC is 5 times our GDP and everything it entails. It is to show to us that they can come in at a time and place of their choosing and stake their claim. It is to keep us rattled and confined to south Asia.

Their confidence stems from the assessment that if India escalates, then the PLA has the wherewithal to do so also and with enough advantages to dissuade such action by New Delhi. New Delhi can ill afford such an action but PRC can.

Deng Xiaoping had said something to the effect, that if you mess with a buffalo, you better be ready. Maybe PLA feels that it is ready and taking on India sends a loud and clear message to all else in the neighborhood.

Tactically, messing around in Tibet keeps the PLAN off the hook, who may have to deal with a long haul, the USN et al. Air-Sea power is not their forte, yet. Air-land they feel more confident.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pandyan » 09 Jun 2020 09:17

Couple of questions for which I don't have answers
What role would drones play in high altitude warfare? Given a not so friendly terrain and weather, drones can provide all-weather monitoring, defensive and offensive capability. How are chinese long range drone capabilities vis a vis India's?

Now that lot of attention is towards NE border, actions in paki border would really hurt the testimonials while the troops in NE stare each other and have discussions.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby yensoy » 09 Jun 2020 09:33

NRao wrote:Using civilian transports to move troops is a significant breakthrough. In 2020.

Civilian transport, yeah right! Some of these obscure airlines like China United Airlines and Sichuan Airlines (and quite possibly Tibet Airlines) are owned by the PLA and exist for the express purpose of moving army personnel under their SoE cover & to provide commercially unviable/technically challenging routes (which also means that they can keep making small operational losses and nobody will care).
But yes, they use commercial aircraft. In particular A319 which has the requisite power for high altitude airports.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 09 Jun 2020 09:39

yensoy wrote:
NRao wrote:Using civilian transports to move troops is a significant breakthrough. In 2020.

Civilian transport, yeah right! Some of these obscure airlines like China United Airlines and Sichuan Airlines (and quite possibly Tibet Airlines) are owned by the PLA and exist for the express purpose of moving army personnel under their SoE cover & to provide commercially unviable/technically challenging routes (which also means that they can keep making small operational losses and nobody will care).
But yes, they use commercial aircraft. In particular A319 which has the requisite power for high altitude airports.


The funny point is that they consider that to be a breakthrough. I guess they were transporting their troops on yaks all these years.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby veejey » 09 Jun 2020 10:24

I have certain observations for recent developments.

1. Both Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh saying that India won't bow to China's muscle flexing

2. Reports in media about around 12k workers being recruited by BRO for infra development at Chinese border and arrangements being made to transport them in special trains. Had government wished, this could have been stopped from being reported.

3. Rajya Sabha TV interviewing Tibetian PM in exile.

4. Saw a tweet by @drapr007 that MEA officially briefed some countries.

"#BREAKING : MEA officially briefed to Russia, USA, Australia, Japan, South Korea & Israel, Vietnam about ongoing tension between India and China along the LAC in Laddakh.

#IndiaChinaStandoff"

All these suggests that we have upped the ante in our responses after 1st round of talks. I won't be surprised if the standoff continues, next step will be somewhere in Indian Ocean.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby khan » 09 Jun 2020 10:33

Veejay - I agree that the ante has been upped. Not sure about Indian Ocean. They did the same type of diplomatic stuff pre-Balakot. Interesting days ahead.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 09 Jun 2020 10:42

arshyam wrote:
Deans wrote:Rather that pipe dreams of liberating Tibet, what is doable is taking back some of the 600 odd Sq km we allowed the chinese to take,
during UPA 1 & 2. Its possible in the Demchok area in southern Ladakh - which can threaten to cut the G-219 highway and their base at Ngari.
The opening of the Rohtang tunnel will simplify logistics if we have to station a force in Demchok.

Do we know where all this 600 sq km is distributed?

Demchok seems to be hardly 50-60km from G-219 and Ngari. Close to artillery range. So a good area to focus on. But it looks like there is some work to do here - G maps has the road from Fukche marked as a minor road and seems to be mostly un-metalled. While the connection to Hanle (and a better road) is shorter, it also goes via what's marked as Photi La, and seems steep. Compared to this route, the route via Dungti is along the Indus, so upgrading it should be doable and would provide a viable alternate route. The Fukche ALG still seems to be unpaved - hope further upgrades are on the cards.


600 km is speculative, that is what current govt claims was conceded in UPA time. You are right in suggesting that a lot of transport infrastructure
work has to be completed before we can think of any reverse salami action. Apart from the ALGs, Thoise has a good runway but needs a better
road to Durbuk and Leh. My understanding is that the other `lost areas' are the Pangong fingers 5-8 and Depsang - opposite DBO.
Last edited by Deans on 09 Jun 2020 10:51, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 09 Jun 2020 10:47

yensoy wrote:
NRao wrote:Using civilian transports to move troops is a significant breakthrough. In 2020.

Civilian transport, yeah right! Some of these obscure airlines like China United Airlines and Sichuan Airlines (and quite possibly Tibet Airlines) are owned by the PLA and exist for the express purpose of moving army personnel under their SoE cover & to provide commercially unviable/technically challenging routes (which also means that they can keep making small operational losses and nobody will care).
But yes, they use commercial aircraft. In particular A319 which has the requisite power for high altitude airports.


We have been using private airlines to transport the Army to Thoise and Leh for years. Flights to Thoise are exclusively for the army. The
airlines do these flights on a purely commercial basis.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 09 Jun 2020 11:04

I fully agree with Hari Nair's earlier post about us having unrealistic dreams about liberating Tibet etc. I have not been in the service, but did some basic research for my book, which make very obvious some of the points Hari makes. To get a basic understanding of what the terrain is like, I visited North Sikkim (going upto 17000 ft at Gurudomgar lake) and Ladakh - apart from getting gyan from my former operations head who was an instructor in HAWS and a Kargil war hero. It would be a challenge for even infantry platoons to survive and be supplied at high altitude posts. The terrain favours the defender - it took 2 divisions 2 months to evict a few hundred intruders at Kargil (backed up by several times that number). In many places, on both sides, a single broken down vehicle (which happens when engines have reduced oxygen at high altitude) can block a road. They are also blocked due to snow, or landslides caused by rain, or for no reason. Quite often the weather - which can change rapidly, does not permit air activity.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby williams » 09 Jun 2020 12:52

Deans wrote:I fully agree with Hari Nair's earlier post about us having unrealistic dreams about liberating Tibet etc. I have not been in the service, but did some basic research for my book, which make very obvious some of the points Hari makes. To get a basic understanding of what the terrain is like, I visited North Sikkim (going upto 17000 ft at Gurudomgar lake) and Ladakh - apart from getting gyan from my former operations head who was an instructor in HAWS and a Kargil war hero. It would be a challenge for even infantry platoons to survive and be supplied at high altitude posts. The terrain favours the defender - it took 2 divisions 2 months to evict a few hundred intruders at Kargil (backed up by several times that number). In many places, on both sides, a single broken down vehicle (which happens when engines have reduced oxygen at high altitude) can block a road. They are also blocked due to snow, or landslides caused by rain, or for no reason. Quite often the weather - which can change rapidly, does not permit air activity.

You are right. We need more roads, food, and fuel storage facility. That in itself is the game-changer in SSN. Once we have the roads in place, we can station more troops and equipment. At the present time, we need to focus on building our MIC. In spite of Modi govt, progress is still in the snail phase. It is just impossible to punch the Chinese where it hurts until we can scale both civilian and military manufacturing capacity.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RajaRudra » 09 Jun 2020 13:05

1 - Indian govt TV channel interview of CTA President (Tibet Govt in Exile)
2 - Bulking of troops in Eastern border(more than matching china)
3 - The so called wise Chinese reacting crazy for a border development activity.
4 - Indian Govt playing it coolly and Global times barking like a mad dog.
5 - For a change, Indian media showing confident(except rNDTV, ShookLaws)
6 - Utter chaos in the congress party reactions.

- My take is, some thing is getting planned for Winter. The above points are just controlled chaos
getting created as rhythmic as possible. May be actual target is some chunks in POK or Gilgit Baltistan and this skirmishes and bulking in eastern border is just to make sure Chinese will not be coming to help the pakis when time comes(snow also play its part in dissuading chinese) .

Just my guess, may be my desire is driving this guess.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chola » 09 Jun 2020 13:30

NRao wrote:
yensoy wrote:Civilian transport, yeah right! Some of these obscure airlines like China United Airlines and Sichuan Airlines (and quite possibly Tibet Airlines) are owned by the PLA and exist for the express purpose of moving army personnel under their SoE cover & to provide commercially unviable/technically challenging routes (which also means that they can keep making small operational losses and nobody will care).
But yes, they use commercial aircraft. In particular A319 which has the requisite power for high altitude airports.


The funny point is that they consider that to be a breakthrough. I guess they were transporting their troops on yaks all these years.


Yes they were, Rao ji.

Velly interlesting pictures of PLA on yaks.
https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/why-china-s-army-still-rides-yaks-1837046487


Why China’s Army Still Rides Yaks

Kyle Mizokami
8/08/19 3:45PM
The People’s Liberation Army—the official name of the Chinese Army—still rides yaks to patrol some of the country’s most difficult borders. The use of yaks, basically hairy cows adapted to mountain life, allows the PLA to go places tanks and armored vehicles can’t.


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Manish_Sharma » 09 Jun 2020 14:28

TWITTER

@SJha1618:

Because you fought in 1962, howsoever badly, you got the Line of Actual Control. Because you gave them a bloody nose in 1967, Mao signalled a detente of sorts. Because you moved in 1987, they changed their strategy. Fight now & they will come to the table in earnestness.


https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/127 ... 95010?s=19

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby AshishA » 09 Jun 2020 15:23

I have few questions for the knowledgable posters in this forum as I don't know anything about military affairs. It will be greatly helpful for me in understanding the problems facing us.

Q1) Can we take back Aksai Chin or not? Is it feasible? Because I have been hearing the political leadership every now and then mention about taking back PoK, Aksai Chin and Gilgit Baltistan.

Q2) Will it be better for us to ally with the USA in view of possible future confrontation with China or is USA too unreliable of an ally to partner with?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kit » 09 Jun 2020 15:36

NRao wrote:Troop movements halted at India-China standoff points but defences are up deep inside

Interesting

There hasn’t been any activity at the four standoff points along the Line of Actual Control after Indian and Chinese military commanders held a 7-hour-long ice-breaking meeting over the weekend, people familiar with the developments told Hindustan Times on Monday.

India, which was the first to speak about the meeting at the Moldo-Chushul border meeting point some 14,000 feet above sea level, had underlined on Sunday that the two sides had agreed to peacefully resolve the situation. On Monday, the Chinese foreign ministry statement about the discussions over the weekend made the same point.

To be sure, the two sides are not anywhere close to a resolution of the standoff at three points in the Galwan valley and the fourth, near Pangong Lake.

Saturday’s meeting between Lt Gen Harinder Singh, commander of Leh-based 14 Corps, and a Chinese delegation headed by Maj Gen Liu Lin, commander of the South Xinjiang military region, agreed to keep talking at the brigade and battalion commander level.

The Indian assessment is that the shortest time frame that one could look at for a resolution is next month, if not later. That would be comparable to the time taken to end the Doklam standoff that lasted 73 days and ended only after conversations at the highest level.

The Indian side, however, has taken note of a defensive military buildup by the People’s Liberation Army in places such as Kashgar, the headquarters of the PLA’s Xinjiang military district some 480 km from the standoff points along the LAC.

An Indian official said the buildup at the district headquarters had happened over the last few weeks and days, around the time that China had been talking about dialogue to resolve the standoff that started from a May 5 clash between soldiers at one location in eastern Ladakh.

According to senior indian officials, India had responded and mobilised its troops also.

“Our buildup matches the Chinese deployment, if not more, in terms of troops, support elements, force multipliers and aerial support,” a senior official said.

Chinese troops did have an advantage in the initial days of the standoff when its soldiers took the first steps to adopt an aggressive stance at Pangong lake and Galwan valley. But the Indian deployment was beefed up rapidly after additional troops underwent the seven days of acclimatization required to enable them to operate at 16,000 feet height.

One official said the Chinese forces had been putting pressure on the Chip Chap river-Karakoram-Trig heights-Galwan-Depsang bulge axis after the Indian Air Force revived the Daulat Beg Oldie airfield by landing an AN-32 transport aircraft in May 2008. After a standoff with Chinese troops in April 2013, the Indian Air Force had landed the Lockheed Martin C-130J Super Hercules four-engine military transport aircraft as well.


If I am not wrong such defensive buildups are for offensive manoeuvres? Or they are just scared of the Indian buildup opposite ?..and hence "show of force" of PLA running around in civvie buses !!.,

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kit » 09 Jun 2020 15:47

deleted

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Nihat » 09 Jun 2020 16:14

It's certainly a good time to at least have a back channel engagement with Taiwan.

Even a leak to the extent of increasing collaboration with Taiwan will massively ruffle Chinese feathers and frankly there is absolutely nothing there for India to loose.

China has already established themselves as our adversary, by arming Pakistan to the teeth and any trade sanctions imposed on India will be very beneficial for us in the long run, as it will compel our entrepreneurs to be atma nirbhar

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby mody » 09 Jun 2020 16:23

The most important thing at the moment is to try and understand China's motives in all this.
Maybe they are trying to do a reverse Doklam and stop the infrastructure building on the Indian side. However, the DS-DBO road has been under construction for a long time and was completed last year. Only a small bridge probably remains.

Also, China obviously knows our force levels in the region and would have a decent idea about our ORBAT for eastern ladakh and the Sikkim-AP border region. Also, about the reserves that we have and can call up. In fact recently IA had also conducted an exercise with the newly created IBG, simulating offensive action on the eastern front.
Also, after doklam they also know that we have the resolve to stand up to them and would not give in easily.

Maybe the Chinese have only small localized goals in the sector, like taking control of some hills or dominating heights, so as to negate the new roads being built by India, or have a much larger design, which we need to decipher and counter accordingly.

In today's TOI, Maroof Raza says its more about water and Chinese desire to try and link KK pass with Aksai cheen and further westerward to Shaksgam valley.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blo ... c-designs/

The Chinese are funding 5 dams in Gilgit-Baltistan, with the latest being $5.4 billion for the Diamer-Basha dam (previously the foolish Niazi was trying to get it built with crowd funding :-)). They wouldn't be putting in so much money, just to generate electricity and to sell to bankrupt power discoms in porkiland.


What the Chinese action is also doing is what India did with Paki nuclear bluster. They are showing that limited conventional conflict is possible between nuclear armed countries, especially if one feels that they have an advantage in conventional weapons. For example, if the Chinese were to somehow capture say upto 2,000-3,000 SqKms of Indian territory in eastern ladakh, would India threaten to use nuclear weapons? Our Nuclear posture espouses NFU anyways. Realistically, India would not think of this option, even if we loose that sliver of territory.

At this juncture understanding what the Chinese are after is most important and our response should be commensurate with that. If the Chinese are looking for just some small regional gains, then negotiated de-escalation should be the route. However, if there is much larger Chinese strategic objective in all this, then escalating the conflict and giving the Chinese a bloody nose (throw in a black eye and few broken teeth as well), should be the way forward. In the second option, we have to be prepared for a longer conflict raging over a few months, which would have serious implications for our economy. Perhaps also opening up of the western front by the pakis or worse still paki-cheen combined force on the western border.
Some reports have indicated Chinese troop mobilisation near Kashgar in Xinjiang. Happens to be 480 Kms from LAC, but what if the Chinese move that force in Gilgit-Baltistan, via the Khunjerab pass? Maybe all this LAC noise could also be preparing the ground for permanent PLAGF presence in GB!!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby mody » 09 Jun 2020 16:41

People have been talking about the Quad and Quad+ and whatnot. Personally I don't think anyone will really come to India's aid. The most that we can expect is if the US were to sell a dozen or so C-130's from their bone yard, just for the cost of upgrading the old planes to the latest standard. Say about $30-35 million each and increasing their own P8N flights and surveillance and giving us intelligence and satellite data etc.


A real Tom Clancyish plot if anyone really wants to play it out, would be an Indo-Chinese armed conflict in eastern ladakh, where India starts gaining an upper hand and the Chinese are forced to get in much larger forces from the central and even eastern military region to avoid a complete disaster and Taiwan formally declaring Independence (under US guidance), taking advantage of the situation. The Chinese would be furious. On one had they would be loosing a regional war with India and on the other the US would be positioning its 7th fleet on their eastern seaboard and Taiwan declaring independence. A slew of Western and US-allied countries could if forced by the US, recognise Taiwan as an independent country. China has stated many times that it would take military action if Taiwan were to formally declare independence. This would put it in a real bind. Even smaller countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Phillipines etc., would try to take advantage of the situation to bolster their position in the SCS.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Abhisham » 09 Jun 2020 16:42


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RajaRudra » 09 Jun 2020 17:10

mody wrote:The most important thing at the moment is to try and understand China's motives in all this.
Maybe they are trying to do a reverse Doklam and stop the infrastructure building on the Indian side. However, the DS-DBO road has been under construction for a long time and was completed last year. .......
Some reports have indicated Chinese troop mobilisation near Kashgar in Xinjiang. Happens to be 480 Kms from LAC, but what if the Chinese move that force in Gilgit-Baltistan, via the Khunjerab pass? Maybe all this LAC noise could also be preparing the ground for permanent PLAGF presence in GB!!


What we are seeing is Chaos(usually followed by economic turmoil/war), Satisfying to see the govt is not panicking and letting the army take certain decisions. Chaos are needed and usually lead to long lived peace, personally hoping we will make use of the upcoming chaos.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ShauryaT » 09 Jun 2020 17:22

A reasonable and needed response, which is in the realm of our capabilities to do and at the same time achieves our near term objectives to thwart the chinese aggression would be, to build permanent structures all along our version of the LAC providing a fait accompli to the PRC.

Will any govt muster up the will to do so and deal with its commmensurate risks and rewards?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ArjunPandit » 09 Jun 2020 17:28

modyji
my sense is china is making moves to protect its CPEC investments if GB goes away then entire investment in paksitan for highways and gwadar is threatened and nullified, in addition to losing face and theoretically gives india a foothold in afghanistan.

What US based allies can provide us and we may be in shortage from ideal
1. M777s
2. C130/C17
3. Apache/Chinooks
4. Real time intelligence, naval movements, ELINTs: remember we were spooking with americans for chinese nuclear tests
5. Not sure if we would need american style humvees
All for an off the shelf price of course

Nations broadly follow broadly consistent behavioural patterns in their dealings unless deterred/pushed back. China is no exception. My viewpoint is that they are quite likely to do something on our border than other borders
1. Taiwan too risky to begin with, US support, too fierce resistance, and bullying
2. Vietnam: Had been bloodied so wont mess again apart from cartographic/naval aggressions
3. Nepal/Myanmar/Phillipines/Thailand/Malaysia: Nothing much to be done apart from buying corrupt leaders
4. Australia: Browbeat.sanction, nothing else to be done
5. India: We may not believe in it but chinese believe in "beating monkey to scare cat" or something similar stupid. It's their psyche, just like pakis have anti india hatred. No one can accuse them of bullying a small nation. Not many military friends of india. Have a ready opponent against us in loyal pakistan. Global narrative against hindu nationalists, anti muslim (distraction against ughyrs), pliable corrupt media that, barring few exceptions, is largely already against the govt. The only 3 spanners are geography which is largely in india's favor, our military forces that have are not as bad as rest of govt areas and this govt.

In all next 1-2 years are going to be quite interesting. Lot of moves/countermoves will be made on the drawing board. If things are going according to our plan outside india, it will be better to prepare for more terror attacks and CAA like protests in India. The govt already knows this

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 09 Jun 2020 17:36

Reports of disengagement on Galwan and Hot Spring.

I am yet to understand what are the Chinis trying to do... :roll:

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rkirankr » 09 Jun 2020 17:47

nam wrote:Reports of disengagement on Galwan and Hot Spring.

I am yet to understand what are the Chinis trying to do... :roll:

Real time exercise . It is like a python. I heard a story, here it goes. Once a man rescued a small baby python, fed it and looked after it. After some days it would sleep next to him, completely stretched in a straight line. In the morning it would cuddle up with him. As it grew this went on. The man was curious and once visited his friend who was some kind of expert on snakes. His answer shocked him. He said the python was measuring itself daily , to see if it could swallow its master. One day it will.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ArjunPandit » 09 Jun 2020 17:50

^^link please

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Kritavarman » 09 Jun 2020 18:10

https://twitter.com/ani_digital/status/1270319244006154240

Indian, Chinese troops disengage at three locations in Eastern Ladakh; China moves back troops by 2-2.5 km

https://aninews.in/news/national/general-news/indian-chinese-troops-disengage-at-three-locations-in-eastern-ladakh-china-moves-back-troops-by-2-25-km20200609170633/

New Delhi [India], June 9 (ANI): Ahead of the next round of military talks scheduled to start this week, troops of India and China have disengaged on the ground at multiple locations in Eastern Ladakh.

The talks between the two armies are going to be held this week at multiple locations including Patroling point 14 (Galwan area), Patrolling point 15, and Hot Springs area, top government sources told ANI.

Because of the talks to be held in the next few days and the Lt Gen-level talks held on June 6, the Chinese Army has pulled back its troops from the Galwan valley, PP-15 and Hot Springs in Eastern Ladakh area by 2 to 2.5 kilometres, they said.

The sources said to reciprocate the Chinese disengagement, the Indian side also brought back some of its troops and vehicles from these areas.

Sources said the talks are being held on these points at the battalion commander level and they have had hotline talks with their counterparts.

The initial talks are being held in these areas, the Chinese activities had also started in Eastern Ladakh from this location only, they said.

Indian military teams are already in Chushul to engage the Chinese in talks and are coordinating with the senior officials in this regard. (ANI)

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RohitH » 09 Jun 2020 18:26

An objective analysis of India and China's defense capabilities. It was published in March this year.
The only caveat is numbers quoted are from January 2018 but the larger picture is very much in line with what folks have been sharing here.

https://www.belfercenter.org/publicatio ... sual-guide

What does this data tell us? We assess that India has key under-appreciated conventional advantages that reduce its vulnerability to Chinese threats and attacks. India appears to have cause for greater confidence in its military position against China than is typically acknowledged in Indian debates.


Now the question is why China, with the disparity in conventional forces and logistical challenges on its western front, is pushing the envelope.
I believe it has all to do with Pakistan and it's OBOR projects. This is to make India back off from its belligerence on LOC and cajole to join OBOR.
China and Pakistan are aggrieved parties here. India is the one kicking the apple cart and acting as a "pain in Chinese/Pakistani butt".
This strategy makes perfect sense from a Gujarati mind's perspective.

Harder one kicks and creates problems ( e.g road constructions, offensive troop build-ups, threatening Karakoram highway ) and raise the cost of maintaining the status quo, better the bargaining power in negotiations, that too without firing a shot. So all this talk of a hot war and grabbing Tibet etc is total humbug. These border negotiations or some future ones might lead to India getting all that it wants in Kashmir along with China getting secure access to the Arabian sea. If not, then all those troops will deliver it by force when the time comes. But India should not lose patience.
With China backing off this time, this round of the game is complete. Let's wait for the next one. :D :D


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