India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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khan
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby khan » 09 Jun 2020 18:35

Nitin Gokhale’s take: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o47up6ndzx0

One key sentence toward the end which I paraphrase “The Chinese saw that the Indians were not surprised and were able to quickly match their deployment, so on May 6th they were ready to de-escalate”

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Vips » 09 Jun 2020 18:36

Just saw breaking news on Zee TV that both China and Indian soldiers have started moving back from their stand-off positions.

Chinese troops at standoff points in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley start thinning out, India also reciprocates.

China has withdrawn soldiers deployed in the Galwan area of eastern Ladakh and is thinning out troops in the Pangong Tso sector where it was locked in a standoff with Indian military for a month, people familiar with the development told Hindustan Times.

Top government officials said the process of the Chinese side withdrawing troops had started yesterday. “We have also reciprocated and moved back our troops,” a top government official said on Tuesday evening.

“The process to restore status quo ante has started at the standoff locations,” the official said.


Is the bolded part true or just a chinese ploy to lull us will become clear in the next couple of weeks.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kvraghav » 09 Jun 2020 18:38

I think the Australian deal has something to do with it. China clearly cannot go against india and australia together. They have already had a verbal spat with the Aussies.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 09 Jun 2020 18:40

khan wrote:Nitin Gokhale’s take: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o47up6ndzx0

One key sentence toward the end which I paraphrase “The Chinese saw that the Indians were not surprised and were able to quickly match their deployment, so on May 6th they were ready to de-escalate”


There is one more important thing he mentions. It has been niggling me why we did not up the hill and land on back Chinese positions on Finger 8. Gen Panag mentioned the heights were under Chinese control.

So now it is more clear. That was half truth. We were able to bypass Finger 4, last year. by coming from the top. The Chinis got scared and tried to cover up the entry from the heights :rotfl:

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 09 Jun 2020 18:44

rkirankr wrote:
nam wrote:Reports of disengagement on Galwan and Hot Spring.

I am yet to understand what are the Chinis trying to do... :roll:

Real time exercise . It is like a python. I heard a story, here it goes. Once a man rescued a small baby python, fed it and looked after it. After some days it would sleep next to him, completely stretched in a straight line. In the morning it would cuddle up with him. As it grew this went on. The man was curious and once visited his friend who was some kind of expert on snakes. His answer shocked him. He said the python was measuring itself daily , to see if it could swallow its master. One day it will.


The last cuddling act in Doklam, caused us to speed up road build. This time it will be even more furious.

The whole incident could have had only one out outcome. Chinese withdrawal. Any Chini with a bit of common sense would have understood this.

Yet they created such a drama.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ArjunPandit » 09 Jun 2020 18:48

Kritavarman wrote:Because of the talks to be held in the next few days and the Lt Gen-level talks held on June 6, the Chinese Army has pulled back its troops from the Galwan valley, PP-15 and Hot Springs in Eastern Ladakh area by 2 to 2.5 kilometres, they said.

The sources said to reciprocate the Chinese disengagement, the Indian side also brought back some of its troops and vehicles from these areas.

Sources said the talks are being held on these points at the battalion commander level and they have had hotline talks with their counterparts.

The initial talks are being held in these areas, the Chinese activities had also started in Eastern Ladakh from this location only, they said.

All v/s some. Interesting indeed.

Face saving?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RohitH » 09 Jun 2020 18:55

nam wrote:There is one more important thing he mentions. It has been niggling me why we did not up the hill and land on back Chinese positions on Finger 8. Gen Panag mentioned the heights were under Chinese control.

So now it is more clear. That was half truth. We were able to bypass Finger 4, last year. by coming from the top. The Chinis got scared and tried to cover up the entry from the heights :rotfl:


Chinese are trying hard to keep this desi monkey off their back. :D
India will continue these antics until Chinese lose either on battleground Kashmir or give it up on the negotiation table.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Vips » 09 Jun 2020 19:03

Got to be careful when the chinese start praising you.

India has the world’s largest and most experienced troops trained for high-altitude battles, a military expert affiliated to China’s leading maker of equipment for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has said, adding that mountaineering is an “essential skill” for each Indian soldier deployed in the mountains.

“At present, the world’s largest and experienced country with plateau and mountain troops is neither the US, Russia, nor any European powerhouse, but India,” wrote Huang Guozhi, senior editor of Modern Weaponry magazine.

The magazine, considered a comprehensive military and defence journal, is affiliated to the state-owned China North Industries Group Corporation Limited (NORINCO), which describes itself as “the main platform responsible for developing mechanised, digitised and intellectualised equipment for PLA”. It’s one of the world’s largest defence contractors and is also closely involved in President Xi Jinping’s legacy project, the Belt and Road Initiative.

The write-up comes in the backdrop of a stand-off between Indian and Chinese border troops along the line of actual control (LAC) in the mountainous Ladakh region. It began last month and was the topic of talks between military commanders last weekend.

Huang’s article published in thepaper.cn is a rare critique of an Indian army wing in Chinese media, which usually takes the more nationalistic tone of brandishing its own capabilities along the border with India. Huang’s take was nuanced.

“Mountaineering is an essential skill for almost every member of the Indian mountain army. To this end, India even recruited a large number of professional mountaineers and amateur mountaineers from the private sector,” Huang wrote.

“With more than 200000 troops in 12 divisions, the Indian mountain force is the largest mountain fighting force in the world,” Huang wrote. Huang said that since the 1970s, the Indian military has established and expanded the size and personnel of the mountain army on a large-scale, and also plans to create a mountain strike force of more than 50,000 troops.

Giving the example of the Siachen Glacier, Huang wrote: “The Indian army has set up hundreds of outposts in the Siachen Glacier area with an altitude of more than 5,000 metres, with 6,000 to 7,000 fighters stationed. The highest post has reached 6,749 metres.”

Huang didn’t mention the source of the information but went on to give a list of weaponry that the Indian army has deployed in the mountains suitable to high-altitude battles.

“In terms of equipment, the Indian military, through procurement from abroad and domestic research and development, has equipped a large number of main battle weapons adapted to the combat environment of the plateau and mountains.”

“The Indian military has also spent heavily on advanced heavy equipment from the US including the M777, the world’s lightest 155mm-towed howitzer, and the Chinook heavy transport helicopter that lifts the gun, to boost its fire support and anti-armour capabilities”. Huang also mentioned the high-calibre sniper rifles that Indian soldiers deployed at high-altitudes are now equipped with.

The author also listed shortcomings of the Indian army mountain troops including lack of self-sufficiency in weaponry and ammunition especially needed for western weaponry.

“In addition, there are many conflicts and differences between the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force. This has also led the Indian Army to decide to equip its own US-made AH-64E Longbow Apache attack helicopters instead of relying entirely on airfield support from the air force,” Huang wrote. Incidentally, India and the US signed an estimated $800 million contract in February this year in New Delhi for the delivery of six Boeing AH-64E Apache Guardian attack helicopters to the Indian Army’s Aviation Corps (AAC).

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 09 Jun 2020 19:15

I am X posting this from the Neutering China thread, as it would help us understand where - IMO our real leverage with the Chinese is and provide a reality check on the Govt's ability, thus far, to counter the Chinese threat. I wrote this 2 years ago for the Indian Military review and the
current situation gives me sense of Deja Vu.

The real Chinese threat.
China’s goal is to be the world’s preeminent power, replacing the US. To that end China’s GDP – in purchasing power parity terms, is set to overtake the US in 2021. China’s goal which was earlier implied and understated, been formally stated and more aggressively acted upon by Premier Xi.
A key weapon in China’s Geo political strategy is the use of its economic power. This is done to do get concessions through economic coercion, undermine a country’s economy (making it more influenced by China’s policies), or affect defence spending of a rival though a small effort of its own.

For e.g. a relatively small amount of aid & weapons to North Korea (or Pakistan) is enough for those countries to threaten their neighbours and force them into a higher military spend that might otherwise be spent elsewhere. China’s border policy towards India, is in my view, part of this strategy wherein small but regular intrusions across the LAC, remind us of the ghosts of 1962 and force us to deploy a large force on the LAC (opposite a far smaller Chinese force across the LAC in Tibet) as a deterrent. Coupled with this, is China’s effort to undermine the India’s economy through its economic policies of the last decade.

The trade deficit between India and China at $ 63 billion in 2017-8, is the 2nd highest that any country has with another – only the US, with its much larger economy has a bigger trade deficit (also with China). While India imported goods worth $ 79 billion from China, China imported only $ 16 billion from India, in 2017-18. Not only is the absolute size of the trade deficit worrying, its composition and growth has even more serious implications for the Indian economy.
In 2003-4, India’s trade deficit with China was just US$ 1 billion. This increased to US$ 16 billion in 2007-8 and US $35 billion in 2013-4 (when the current Govt. took over). Despite all the talk around `Make in India’ this deficit has almost doubled the last 3 years, to reach US$ 63 billion. Incredibly, in the year, when we had the Doklam crisis, the trade deficit increased by another $ 11 billion!
While China’s exports to India have been steadily growing, ours have stagnated. Our exports to China were actually higher in 2011-12. The problem is India’s exports to China are mostly raw materials like Diamonds, Copper & Zinc, Cotton Yarn etc. These commodities have very small margins and are subject to global prices, over which India has little control. Even when India discusses reducing the trade deficit, the items India seeks to export are agricultural commodities like sugar and grapes, which have a finite supply, because of which any change in export volumes (which China can influence), can have a sudden impact on either consumer prices or farmer incomes in India.
In contrast, China exports manufactured goods to India. It has been estimated (and stated by Govt.) that the price subsidy given to Chinese manufacturers is about 17% on average making them cheaper than Indian products. Over time, this has led to Indian companies preferring to trade (buy from China) instead of manufacture and a lot of `manufacturing’ that is done is really assembling of Chinese components. While we have 100+ units ‘manufacturing’ cell phones, the local value addition is under 6%.

By 2020, India’s net imports of electronics could surpass that of Oil. Half these imports come from China. While in theory, Chinese subsidies for exports mean lower prices for the Indian consumer (including lower cost of power due to for e.g. low priced Solar panels) China is known to sharply increase prices once they have established market dominance and ensured the importing country loses the capability to manufacture locally. Pharma is an example. A staggering 70%-80% of Drug intermediates & API’s (Active pharmaceutical ingredients) are imported from China. This China has the ability to destroy our export led pharma industry by simply stopping supply or increasing prices of ingredients. The capacity utilisation of Indian API units is barely 40% - the lowest in the world. India by contrast, cannot export in any significant quantity to China because of non-tariff barriers (drug approvals in China take 5-7 years).
We are repeating the mistake the US has made over decades when they preferred cheap consumer products from China at the cost of undermining their manufacturing base. The US dependence on China is what makes the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration so difficult and unpopular.
When faced with increasing instances of dumping of Chinese goods, India has responded with anti-dumping duties and increased tariffs. However, that has a limited impact. A lot of Chinese imports (to non govt. importers) are under-invoiced. The difference between real and declared value is remitted to China, from overseas accounts by the Indian importer (getting rid of his black money), while duties are paid on the reduced price declared in the invoice.

India has duty free arrangements with neighbours like Si Lanka. Here China’s use of the Hampantota free trade zone (given to China when Sri Lanka could not pay off Chinese debt) would mean that Chinese manufactured goods can reach India duty free (because they are notionally made in Sri Lanka). An estimated 40-50% of the textiles we import duty free from Bangladesh, have fabric of Chinese origin. It is of little comfort to us that Pakistan will face the same problem with the Gwadar free trade zone developed by the Chinese (with Pakistani money, to undermine Pakistani exports).

These are recent findings of the Parliamentary standing committee for commerce. To quote them “The committee finds it unfortunate that in the name of `ease of doing business’, we are more than willing to give market access to China, while China is smartly protecting its Industry from Indian competition”. In the case of solar power, the committee found that 2 lac jobs had been lost due to cheap Chinese imports. In the last 5 years, 40% of Indian companies making toys have shut.
To put in perspective the value of the trade deficit at US$ 63 billion – It is more than the total value of Chinese investments in Pakistan under the CPEC and the value of armaments supplied by China to Pakistan. Perversely, Indians pay for Pakistan’s development & arms, by buying Chinese goods in increasing quantities, while the Indian manufacturing sector is starved of orders for a significant part of this business. The annual trade deficit with China is also more than our defence expenditure of $ 52 billion and 7 times more than our value of imported weapons.

The economic threat from China goes beyond the trade deficit. Under-invoicing reduces import duties and launder black money held abroad. Mis-declaration and smuggling brings banned goods to India, while many consumer products fail Indian safety standards.
Recently 38 Chinese apps have been classified by the Ministry of Defence as dangerous, as they pose the risk of cyber attacks against India. While Western countries are placing restrictions on Chinese telecom firm Huawei (linked to the PLA) as it represents a significant espionage risk, India has asked them be part of our 5G network.
Data of millions of Indian consumers using Chinese owner PayTM or Chinese cellphones (4 of the top 5 brands in India), are, at the time of writing this, stored in China. This can potentially cause what intelligence agencies term – Addiction, Surveillance & Manipulation by an unfriendly foreign power.
Coupled with this, is China using its increasing clout in international organisations to hurt India’s interests. For e.g. denying India admission to the Nuclear Suppliers group, or shielding terrorist Masood Azhar.
Given how much China gains from the Indian market, India needs to realise that trade can be a strong weapon against China and one not wielded so far.

Import tariffs can be raised for items imported almost entirely from China (or Hong Kong, its proxy)
India has room to do this under its WTO obligations and it will not be seen as anti-China, since in theory all countries exporting that item to India are affected. On items where it is believed China is dumping goods below price, India should not just be more aggressive in imposing anti-dumping duties, but set a floor price below which an item cannot be invoiced at. This will prevent under-invoicing and loss of customs revenue.
Chinese goods need to conform to Indian standards. Such regulations – given the ways of our bureaucracy, can be effective non-tariff barriers. Imports from countries where there is no prior history of poor quality can be spared this process (so that imports from other major trading partner
remain smooth). Similar restrictions can be placed on granting of long term visas.

A stronger signal can be sent by banning companies that work with supporters of terrorism (i.e. Pakistan Govt. or companies where the Pak govt. or its agencies e.g. Fauji foundation, have a shareholding), from doing business in India. Exceptions can be made for `friendly countries’ (as the US did for Iranian Oil imports). Where a ban is not possible e.g. a Chinese airline operating in both countries, a `security tax’(as a percentage of turnover) can be imposed.
Just a 10% increased import duty on Chinese products and imposing a floor price on some categories of import, can yield around Rs. 50,000 crore annually in duties. More realistically, it might yield a Rs 25,000 crore duty increase (enough to give 10 million people work for 100 days under MGNREGA) and a $ 35 billion reduction in the value of Chinese imports. If half of that reduction results in increased manufacturing in India, it could, given our labour productivity, provide another 2.5 million factory jobs.
The impact of a $35 billion reduction in manufacturing may not be large given the size of the Chinese economy, but it could well have a domino effect, with more countries imposing protective measures against Chinese imports (as the US has done), or refusing to repay costly Chinese loans, or continue unviable projects, under China’s OBOR initiative - which small countries like Sri Lanka, Malaysia and the Maldives are now doing. Cumulatively, the financial impact might well be a tipping point that causes the highly leveraged Chinese economy to snap. The Chinese markets fell 25% in 2018, influenced by US tariffs on Chinese imports. China may well conclude for e.g. that its support for terrorist groups in Pakistan is not worth reduced or costlier access to the huge Indian market
The way the Chinese use trade to undermine our national security is, I believe, inadequately understood by our policy makers.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Karan M » 09 Jun 2020 19:35

Completely agree Deans. I wonder why we are so diffident when it comes to dealing with PRC.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby khan » 09 Jun 2020 20:21

nam wrote:
The last cuddling act in Doklam, caused us to speed up road build. This time it will be even more furious.

The whole incident could have had only one out outcome. Chinese withdrawal. Any Chini with a bit of common sense would have understood this.

Yet they created such a drama.


They seem to have been infected with the Pakistani disease of tactical brilliance. Now IA will be even more aggressive.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 09 Jun 2020 20:25

Or they are doing a song and dance to make the Pakis and BIF friends in India think they are helping.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rakesh » 09 Jun 2020 20:36

RohitH wrote:An objective analysis of India and China's defense capabilities

I have changed your username to RohitH. If you like another username, please advise.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 09 Jun 2020 20:42

The way the Chinese use trade to undermine our national security is, I believe, inadequately understood by our policy makers.


I am pretty sure, our policy makers understand it very well. If it is obvious to us mango people, it is impossible that our policy makers haven't heard of it.

But then when was the last time our policy makers treated any country as a threat? We were importing cement from Pak till last year, when they themselves decided not to trade!

Instead of decimating Pak economy, we were actually buying cement! "naming a enemy is making one" nonsense :roll:

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Hari Nair » 09 Jun 2020 20:50

Gen Prakash Katoch's take on the present "disengagement" is worth a read:
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/ladakh-standoff-keep-the-powder-dry/

He firstly cautions into reading too much into the present move-back of troops by 2-3 km calls it a typical Chini 'blow-hot, blow-cold" move which could go either way. He is very much correct on that one.

On territorial grab possibilities, he points out that the Chinis may be attempting to push us back west of the Shyok and take out DBO-Depsang Plains, thereby using it to link up with their road under construction in Shaksgam Valley.
Now, I am not so sure on the possibility of a Chinese link road cutting through Depsang-DBO to Shaksgam - obviously I have not flown over the Shaksgam Valley, but from images it appears to be tapering upslope and glaciated on its eastern slopes. Not so sure anybody could build roads on that portion of the valley- unless I am missing something.

He also ponders on a geo-political quid-pro-quo - access to our markets and economic concessions - which as he rightly points out will be hara-kiri for India. On that point - I really wonder whether any Desi Govt (UPA or NDA) would agree without it being roasted by the opposition and the public at large.

On the whole, what we obviously can see is build-up of capabilities by Winnie the Pooh's forces. What we are perhaps still missing (on open forums, at least) is discerning the intent of the Great Superior Army of the Middle Kingdom.

Its entirely possible that we may see a skirmish during this campaign season.

PS - he particularly points out a scribe who inflated the numbers of intruders. This scribe was also a signatory to the Track-II efforts to get India to vacate from the Saltoro massif (essentially Siachen). He also notes that the Chinese regularly pay journos.
I did meet this "scribe" a couple of times during some interviews- learnt that he actually was a CO of an armoured Regt - Poona Horse, if I recall rightly?
Last edited by Hari Nair on 10 Jun 2020 12:00, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 09 Jun 2020 20:59

If the Chinis plan to grab any land on our side or push us back, how do they intend to do it without firing a shot/ going to war?

As i said earlier, I don't understand the reason of their confidence on achieving whatever they want to achieve, without we reacting..

We got to sort our ammo production, LCH, SAM, 155MM, Astra induction because the ballon really goes up. And the ballon is trying very hard to go up..

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby manjgu » 09 Jun 2020 21:04

1. and the 'scribe' writes in South China Morning post ..so make ur guesses. 2. the so called withdrawl has not happened in Pangong Tso??!!. 3) on the economic side... what prevents us from going back on our promises later? unless they are asking GOI to sign up Huwaei before withdrawing from Pangong..which we will know v shortly.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Hari Nair » 09 Jun 2020 21:05

nam wrote:If the Chinis plan to grab any land on our side or push us back, how do they intend to do it without firing a shot/ going to war?

As i said earlier, I don't understand the reason of their confidence on achieving whatever they want to achieve, without we reacting..

We got to sort our ammo production, LCH, SAM, 155MM, Astra induction because the ballon really goes up. And the ballon is trying very hard to go up..


Good points really - as I mentioned - we have captured the build-up of capabilities very well, however a bit of floundering on analysing their intent (on open forums!).

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby manjgu » 09 Jun 2020 21:28

by slowly creeping .. a few km every year !! as they did in the past and now... reason is they believe no body wants a panga with them given their size, resources and quality of movies of PLA excercising... we all know what our problems are ... ammo, guns , etc etc ..not coming in time. I am sure chini also pay babus in MOD to go slow on things... journos to write the chini line ... intellectuals to peddle the commie lies etc.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Philip » 09 Jun 2020 22:01

Deans' piece extensively described the sad state of the Indian state standing on a chair,hanging a rope from the fan hook ,placing the noose around its neck and balancing precariously on the edge of the chair,all items described above,made in China.

One can only conclude from this suicidal policy towards China that vested interests in the corridors of power are wotking against the national interest. What is sad to see is that the nationalist NDA from whom many had high hopes of, is acting no better than a Congress coalition govt. when it comes to appeasement of China.The PM has bent backwards in embracing XI,hoping that his grand gestures would be similarly rewarded.Rewarded they have,making him and India look like a naive neophyte of a nation.

However,though backstabbed,standing firm,taking measures to redress the military situation,plus threatening even more damaging diplomatic and economic reward for China's chicanery,is the ready solution that must be put into action. China has more to lose stratrgically than India. Just one Chinese tanker turned into a flaming wreck in the IOR would be loss of face for China that would reverberate around the world,the dragon shot down,over-reaching itself. Let's plan and prepare for that eventuality.
Last edited by Philip on 09 Jun 2020 23:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ArjunPandit » 09 Jun 2020 22:08

Karan M wrote:Completely agree Deans. I wonder why we are so diffident when it comes to dealing with PRC.

with regards to dean's point..it is very valid sir..but the bigger problem is that it would always be easy to game the system as dean mentioned..best the that we as people do ourselves..

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 09 Jun 2020 22:10

Good read on the new man on Western Theater.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3088099/china-puts-rising-star-command-forces-border-face-against-india

There was another article from Epoch times, where it seems the Chinis were quite tossed to see the thrashing we gave to the PLA chap in the video from the lake.

It seems it was quite a hit on their H&D to see the armor car running off leaving the chap behind. :rotfl:

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ArjunPandit » 09 Jun 2020 22:23

Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 10 Jun 2020 00:43

During this round of standoff, PLAAF got it's AWACS in to Hotan in May, while it started also digging up Ngari. We also saw WT, moving in to Lhasa, using civilian aircraft. Slowly the missing support elements in Tibet are falling in place.

I think we are closer to getting the first shot fired.

I hope our policy makers are now realizing that there is a real threat of a short high intensity, two front war. China may not join in a Indo-Pak war, but Pak will jump in a Indo-China fight.

Either we need to disable one front of that 2 front.. i.e knock off Pak economically and militarily, or arm ourself for the inevitable.

With growing US pressure on the Chinis, it is a matter of time before they lash out. We are a threat to their dominance in Asia and a threat to their rear in Tibet. We overlook their access to IOR, from A&N and Karakoram & Arabian sea.

They will constantly try to have a obedient gov in India and create standoff, when there isn't one.

I really hope our policy makers are seeing the obvious.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Prem » 10 Jun 2020 01:17

Baba says that in precision attack, Paki lost A Chopper few minutes ago
https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/127 ... 45152?s=20

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VKumar » 10 Jun 2020 01:20

Fantastic post by Deans. Similar points I have been making in diverse forums. Very well articulated. We should email it to Piyush Goyal, Nitin Gadkari, Nirmala Sitharaman, Amit Shah, Niti Ayog, PMO.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 10 Jun 2020 01:30

China has been moving to a "Theater Command" structure for some time now, the Western/Tibet being the last theater to be upgraded - in the process I think. 2016 or so was when the earlier reports came out. The recent activities mentioned in three posts above (@nam) is part of that process.

I do not think China will engage India. What she will do is 1) Keep upgrading and testing her upgrades - to make sure that they work (IMHO, the current optics is the first part of that), and 2) use these tests to apply pressure on India.

China is doing the same thing elsewhere, in military, civilian, and institutions (WHO, UN, etc). China has built a parallel world in the area of finance (her own World Bank) and is ready to roll out her own cryptocurrency (if she has not already).

China has gamed every situation very well and built a very well-coordinated game plan, with a single point of contact (Xi) for decision making.

India, and other nations too, need to devise ways to prevent such tests. As far as the Indo-China border is concerned, this should be the last time China plays such a game. At least that should be the goal (would have been appropriate to communicate that along with the two items: move to pre April positions and India will continue with her infrastructure building). Backing that goal? Needs to be figured out.
Last edited by NRao on 10 Jun 2020 01:33, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 10 Jun 2020 01:31

Hari Nair wrote:Gen Prakash Katoch's take in the present "disengagement" is worth a read:
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/ladakh-standoff-keep-the-powder-dry/

He firstly cautions into reading too much into the present move-back of troops by 2-3 km calls it a typical Chini 'blow-hot, blow-cold" move which could go either way. He is very much correct on that one.


Good to know that's the view of the experts, the constant all-is-well, nothing to see here, move on onlee messaging made me only more suspicious.

Their mobilisation via civilian aircraft stunt was real as per twitter OSINT (via flight radar etc.) and happened recently (after the Saturday meeting?), so did not get the whole deescalation noise. We were caught with our pants down initially (at least that's the opinion of some ex-army folks), so I hope we are not playing a 1:1 force matching game with the PLA letting them take the lead.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 10 Jun 2020 01:34

How many of us have realized that Pak Army HQ in Pindi ,Isloo, ISI HQ is only 85KM from our location in Poonch?

They are within our Pinaka & Smerch range :D

Dimmer's place is 76KM..

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Vips » 10 Jun 2020 01:55

Forget using rockets just artillery will be enough for Brown pants in Isloo as the VLAP artillery round proposed by IIT Madras has range of 85 Km :twisted:

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 10 Jun 2020 02:05

If we have a Pinaka of 100-120KM with guidance, we would covering most of the important location in Pak!

Even Skardu is only 85-90KM. That is the amount of depth these jokers have.

Brahmos is waste of money for these jokers. We should be hoarding 100KM Pinakas. There is no need for IAF to carry out risky raids.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby g.sarkar » 10 Jun 2020 02:50

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/lada ... 200609.htm
Revealed! India wants China to withdraw first
By Rediff News Bureau June 09, 2020
Since China began this buildup, the Indian side says Chinese troops will have to start the de-escalation.
Only then will Indian troops go back.

The June 6 meeting agreed to this roadmap.
......
At Finger 4, India has set a precondition that the Chinese side must withdraw to its pre-May 8 positions.
Why May 8? Because when on May 5 and 6 the buildup began and the Chinese started coming in, in numbers of 300 people in the Finger 4 and Finger 8 areas, National Security Adviser Ajit Kumar Doval and his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi spoke at length on May 8 and agreed to give directions to their respective militaries to 'cool it' on the border.
The Indian side adhered to Doval's directions and did not take any buildup actions until the Chinese brought in another 200 people at Finger 4 and Finger 8. Since China began this buildup, the Indian side says Chinese troops will have to start the de-escalation. Only then will Indian Indian troops go back.The June 6 meeting has agreed to this roadmap, and the first four points on it are expected to be accomplished in a month's time.
Gautam

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby CRamS » 10 Jun 2020 03:17

GS, if you see Pappu's Shook Law, he has been very silent on this development on his twitter line claiming all along that China has invaded India and ModiJi abjectly waved the surrender flag. The other protagonist, Abhijit Iyer Mitra jokingly said that Shook Law type will now show Beijing as part of Finger 4 and claim Chinese are on Indian territory :-).

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kit » 10 Jun 2020 03:18

nam wrote:Good read on the new man on Western Theater.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3088099/china-puts-rising-star-command-forces-border-face-against-india

There was another article from Epoch times, where it seems the Chinis were quite tossed to see the thrashing we gave to the PLA chap in the video from the lake.

It seems it was quite a hit on their H&D to see the armor car running off leaving the chap behind. :rotfl:



Can you please link me to the video :D

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kit » 10 Jun 2020 03:28

NRao wrote:There is nothing called Quad beyond dialogues. The closest they come to a coordinated military activity (exercise) is the Malabar, which is a tri-national one only since 2015. The 'roo may join this year. Up to India.

The IN and USN do share a lot of info in the IOR.


I think the answer lies in China's own Art of winning wars without fighting a war. The answer is not a physical conflict but an economic one. Deans posted a very pertinent article in the above thread. Just like dealing with Pakistan, the one with China will have to a multi-pronged action on various economic fronts lessening India's dependence on China and taxing all consumer electronics imported directly or indirectly from China. FTA s with neighbouring countries must exclude consumer goods esp electronics.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ArjunPandit » 10 Jun 2020 04:01

babaji reporting, FWIW, that
"IA targeted Battalion HQ of 32nd Infantry Brigade of Pak Army in Dudhnial area of Neelum Valley with artillery and guided munitions. Large number of terrorists were present here with PA soldiers. As per ground report, 1 helicopter of enemy also destroyed in action."
There is mention of Karachi in his tweets too..apparently karachi under black out by some Twitter handles, and then PAF in frenetic action after IAF package was spotted...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ArjunPandit » 10 Jun 2020 04:01

kit wrote:Can you please link me to the video :D

you should be handed a 1 day ban to see that video only... :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sanju » 10 Jun 2020 04:24

Imac_too

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@iMac_too
A group of nine retired army officers, including Lt Gen Nitin Kohli, Lt Gen R N Singh & Maj Gen M Srivastava, said in a statement, "(his tweets) betray his lack of knowledge or are a convenient attempt to ignore historical blunders of Jawaharlal Nehru era"


Rahul's remarks on Sino-India border issue against national interest: Former army officers

NEW DELHI: A group of retired officers of the armed forces on Tuesday deplored Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's statements on India-China border issue, terming them as ill-conceived and against national interest. They said the Congress leader's tweets and statements on border dispute with China "betray his lack of knowledge or are a convenient attempt to ignore historical blunders of Jawaharlal Nehru era".


"We, as a group of senior armed forces veterans, strongly deplore the ill-conceived and ill-timed statements and tweets of Rahul Gandhi questioning the handling of India-China border disputes by our armed forces and the Government of India," the group of nine retired army officers, including Lt Gen Nitin Kohli, Lt Gen R N Singh and Maj Gen M Srivastava, said in a statement.

His statements are "patently harmful to our national interest. In the past too, Rahul Gandhi and Congress leaders questioned the Indian armed forces' ground and air strikes", they said.


To be read in conjunction with the Rediff article posted by Chetak saar.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 10 Jun 2020 05:54

1962≠2020: US study explains India's conventional edge over China

Ankit Kumar
New Delhi
June 9, 2020UPDATED: June 9, 2020 17:49 IST

India holds a conventional advantage to ward off a 1962-type setback in the event of a full-scale escalation with China primarily because of its Beijing-centric deployments across air, land and high-altitude platforms, according to a US study.

The research paper, published by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School earlier this year, analysed comparative data of Indian and Chinese strategic assets.

The study, however, noted New Delhi's conventional advantage remains "under-appreciated" in Indian discourse.


The publication introduced a new data compilation based on "published intelligence documents, private documents sourced from regional states, interviews with experts based in China, India, and the United States".

It gave a comprehensive assessment of "the location and capabilities of Chinese and Indian strategic forces". The two authors of the study are Dr Frank O’Donnell, who is a non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center's South Asia Program and Dr Alexander K Bollfrass, a senior researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich.

Conventional Forces

The research estimated that India's total available army strike forces near China’s border areas to be around 225,000 personnel against an estimated 200,00-230,000 Chinese ground forces under the Western Theater Command, and Tibet and Xinjiang military districts.

But then the study found the Chinese numbers misleading.

"Even in a war with India, a significant proportion of these forces will be unavailable, reserved either for Russian taskings or for countering insurrection in Xinjiang and Tibet," it says.

The authors observed that a majority of Chinese troops are located further from the Indian border, "posing a striking contrast with the majority of forward-deployed Indian forces with a single China defence mission".


Air Capabilities

The Chinese Air Force (PLAAF), according to the authors, also suffers from a numerical disparity to the Indian Air Force (IAF) in the border region.

China’s Western Theater Command controls all regional strike aircraft in this area, the proportion of which are needed to be reserved for "Russia-centric missions", the study said.

China, it added, hosts a total of around 101 fourth-generation fighters in this theatre, which also include Russian defence, against around 122 Indian comparables solely directed at China.

China would likely be compelled to rely more upon its rear-area air bases, which will "exacerbate its limited fuel and payload problems", the authors say.

Most PLAAF pilots are over-reliant upon ground control for tactical direction, which the study notes may turn out to be counterproductive.

According to the study, the Indian fighter pilots have a level of institutional experience in actual networked combat due to ongoing conflicts with Pakistan.

Although China has a superior missile force, it is unlikely to overcome the PLAAF disadvantage at once.

"If the PLAAF attacks just three airfields, it will require 660 ballistic missiles per day for attacking the runway and taxi track alone. China’s stock of 1,000-1,200 MRBMs/SRBMs (medium- and short-range ballistic missiles) will be over in less than two days when attacking just three airfields, with no other major target systems being addressed," wrote the authors, quoting a former IAF official.


The authors believe that China may permanently station large forces nearer to the border but it will give time for a counter-build-up by India.

LAC Stand-Off An Intelligence Failure

Frank O’Donnell, the lead author, told India Today TV that their assessment of the disposition of major Chinese and Indian combat forces has not changed since the publication in March.

That said, he pointed out that such a large movement by the PLA would have been picked up by Indian and US intelligence much in advance.

"What has happened in this episode is that a large Chinese military exercise near the border areas was used as a feint, with Chinese forces then being diverted toward the positions they occupy today," O’Donnell said.

He termed the current situation an outcome of "a significant intelligence failure" and suggested that "there should be a Kargil Review Committee-level public inquiry as to how this intelligence failure was permitted to occur and provide recommendations for preventing a recurrence"
.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Philip » 10 Jun 2020 06:02

Rahul G reminds me of the famous saying," every court must have his clown"! Inquiring about the facts on the ground as leader of his party ( or is he?),is fine,but it should've been followed by another statement saying that he supported the govt. and the armed forces to the max. in the face of Chinese aggression. Even a pro-China rag like the Chindu urged the govt. to stand firm and not give in to Chinese aggression.RG is so far out of position on the issue,time and time again when national security is at stake.Paki terror,Chinese border creep,etc.If he was a hockey player,his position would be " left out"!


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