India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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vera_k
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby vera_k » 01 Jul 2020 10:08

Ban China-backed news apps, Indian publishers tell govt

Reasonable enough, although I wonder what these news apps and platforms are.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby bharathp » 01 Jul 2020 10:08

NRao wrote:Before you think of clearing that map, here is the first salvo from chine. No text beyond the title.

India-China standoff updates: Banning apps violates WTO rules, says Chinese Embassy

That statement was made on Indian soil. And, not in Ladakh or J&K, etc.

China has gamed this extremely well. Enough said.

Real stuff, ground reality. No analysis.


I know the user is banned, but I really dint quite get the pulse of this user.

he says this is "first salvo from chine"
but the banning of the apps was done by india. so fist salvo was India?

then he says China says this is against WTO rules.
so what? china has banned how many apps now? google/twitter/fb have china specific versions, no? data privacy is a serious concern. GDPR etc

then he says,the statement was made on Indian soil by china.
so? what effect will that have? its free speech in India - you wont get arrested for it - i say thats a positive in India. try saying that in China and see what happens - we have to show the difference btw India/china - here it is.

"real stuff, ground reality, no analysis"

the ground reality is - India is taking some concrete steps to limit Chinese apps in India - giving our IT devs/app devs some real space to grow and utilize the market. out MIC or manufacturing may not be par with China, but the IT and app dev sector is absolutely top notch. a few notches higher than chin i can hazard a guess. so we can make money there and prevent anyone else (read chine) to mint money.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby skumar » 01 Jul 2020 10:09

Raveen wrote:
skumar wrote:For the 1000th time, the deal on the planes was closed last year and RS's visit was agreed to before this drama. As much as you want to paint our leadership in a negative light your assertions are made up.


Nothing to do with RS's visit, did we request for early delivery of planes after the clash?

It is our misfortune that we have to choose between the insidious and the competent making bad choices intent on scoring self-goals (while definitely a welcome change from the traitors).

What part of defense spend reduction as % of GDP is made up?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby vera_k » 01 Jul 2020 10:27

^ The past 5 years have seen some of the lowest defense spending as a percentage of GDP. Lower than the previous 5 years, and those 5 years were lower than the 5 years before that. In fact, this latest stunt by the PRC could just be a way to get India to spend more of its money on defense. Used to be that the Pakistanis would serve that purpose, but they are no longer that much of a factor to goad India into diverting resources to defense.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pushkar.bhat » 01 Jul 2020 10:35


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pushkar.bhat » 01 Jul 2020 10:39

vera_k wrote:^ The past 5 years have seen some of the lowest defense spending as a percentage of GDP. Lower than the previous 5 years, and those 5 years were lower than the 5 years before that. In fact, this latest stunt by the PRC could just be a way to get India to spend more of its money on defense. Used to be that the Pakistanis would serve that purpose, but they are no longer that much of a factor to goad India into diverting resources to defense.


Defence spend has to increase to create a MIC that can support a all out war with China, but in doing so we need to ensure that the technology learnings are also ploughed back to create competition for the Chinese in the High Technology sectors. Provide a cost effective alternative for Africa with Indian technologies which come with no attached strings.. Bleed China economically and see how the dragon becomes a common house lizard.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Prem Kumar » 01 Jul 2020 11:14

vera_k wrote:Ban China-backed news apps, Indian publishers tell govt

Reasonable enough, although I wonder what these news apps and platforms are.


A fast-growing news app is DailyHunt. One of its investors is ByteDance, the maker of TikTok

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2020 11:16

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1278014511971274753
ANI @ANI

Federal Communications Commission designates Huawei&ZTE as companies posing national security threat to United States. As a result,telecom companies can't use money from our $8.3B Universal Service Fund on equipment or services produced or provided by these suppliers:FCC Chairman

I guess this will happen in Indian too sooner or later.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2020 11:22

Per rumors on the twitter, Oli of Nepal was honey trapped by the Chinese.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 01 Jul 2020 11:28

pankajs wrote:1. Our PM is not ready to occupy the vacated PP-14 and you expect him to launch a volley of missiles to target China's strategic oil reserves?

It is a matter of political will. If not today and not this PM then some other Indian PM on some other day will have to do it when India really has it's back against the wall.

2. Our PM is not ready to make it a fight on the LAC and you expect him to interdict China bound oil tankers off the coast of India?

Same answer as one above.

3. IFFFFF missiles come into play, do you believe we can throw more missiles and ordinance at China than China can throw at India?

It is not a question of who has more missiles. It is a question of does India have enough missiles to cover (with redundancies) the targets that need to be covered i.e. oil storage, refineries, power plants, communication nodes.

4. I am not an expert BUT I think such facilities are usually are caves in hard rock formations. Do you believe conventionally armed Cruise missiles will do the job? Last I heard, Tomahawk type had warhead of about 1k pounds.

With the kind of CEPs that today's CMs have and the right kind of penetrating warhead it may not be necessary to plough through many feet of rock. Furthermore not all of Chinese strategic reserves are in rock caverns.

5. Do we have sufficient # of sufficient range?

Not as of today. Because it was never a priority. National security and the Indian Air Force operated in different silos and maybe still do. A strike option such as described here does not today fit into the operational plan of the IAF and hence they do not have the weapons for it. Supposedly one of the reasons for the lukewarm reception of the Nirbhay was that the IAF did not know what use it would be to them. But a Nirbhay with a 2000km-2500km range will open up these kinds of targeting options. Similarly a 1000 km ship or air launched Brahmos will complement the Nirbhay from the South China Sea and the East China sea. US tomahawks cost less than $ 2 million per unit that is less than Rs 15 crores. If a 2500 km range Nirbhay can be produced at the same cost, 500 of them will cost $ 1 billion. And that will get the IAF more deep strike options in China compared to the entire Rafale fleet.

To me the above scenario looks highly improbably all things considered.

It is improbably because firstly the IAF does not have the strike weapons for it ready. But they are not unattainable. Brahmos range extension is a work in process. Nirbhay work has to be re-started. The main hurdle is a small fuel efficient turbofan that will provide the range.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Prem Kumar » 01 Jul 2020 12:08

VinodTK wrote:What China Thinks Of Galwan Valley Clash?; Chinese Military Scholar Yun Sun Exclusive


Interesting terminology. Everyone in China is a "scholar".

"Mouthpiece" or "Propagandist" would be a more appropriate word. Our newspapers would carry the article with the appropriate gravitas because it came from a Chinese "scholar"

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rkirankr » 01 Jul 2020 12:17

I am not the expert here or very knowledgeable in Strategic or Defense matters. 10 years back when I joined BRF, learned a lot from Gurus here. My activity declined due to work pressure . Came back recently to see this thread which oscillates between let us capture Lhasa to china will walk in into Leh and Ladhak.

My question is if in case shooting starts, with pakis also doing mischief, what are the chances of India. Remember India already has fought two front war with single enemy in71. One more aspect is , do we think china will adhere to international norms and not use chemical or biological weapons.
I am sure they will do it.
A defeat , in this case will not just means losing a piece of territory but it will set free internal demons in India of regionalism, jihadism, naxalism under the garb of sickularism. 10 years of UPA will look like golden rule. This will be narrative for most part of the century. Remember 62 setback and then the language disturbance. Thrashing pakis united us. China was not number one all these years. It will be so in future. A defeat for them here, will be a huge set back.
I believe the politicians in power very well know that they have no chance of return if they are defeated. In this information age, they will be torn to shreds. Defeat is not an option here

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 01 Jul 2020 12:48

Paxis didn't want to be left out I guess.
Pakistan moves 20,000 soldiers to Gilgit-Baltistan LoC

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RCase » 01 Jul 2020 13:05

NRao wrote:Image of the above topic (that I believe is at Finger 5):

Image

What prevents IAF/ IA doing an airstrike/ dronestrike if China doesn't 'correct their mistake' and take down the structure? India can always say 'we are vely solly'. At least should be given a try when it is winter.
Last edited by RCase on 01 Jul 2020 13:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Prem Kumar » 01 Jul 2020 13:06

I really hope that the "ban 59 Chinese apps" is a permanent move & not some babu's idea of generating a chip that can be bargained away in exchange for the Chinese moving back to their April positions.

Chinese apps need to stay banned for their own sake. The same for Chinese hardware - mobiles, Huawei etc. These actions were long overdue, Galwan or no Galwan.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rajpa » 01 Jul 2020 13:17

RCase wrote:
NRao wrote:Image of the above topic (that I believe is at Finger 5):

Image

What prevents IAF/ IA doing an airstrike/ dronestrike if China doesn't 'correct their mistake' and take down the structure? India can always say 'we are vely solly'. At least should be given a try when it is winter.


Once they leave, this structure will look like a chicken or can be modified as such.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Prem Kumar » 01 Jul 2020 13:19

The cheap stunt of engraving a Chinese character on the lake bank shows 2 things:

1) It shows that the Chinese are rattled by the actions of 16 Bihar & the 59-app banning. They respond in the typical commie fashion - by an artificial show of strength. Its like a dog peeing on a lamp-post

2) Its a reminder to Modiji that the Chinese are very much squatting on our land and daring you to throw them out. Ball is in India's court. Economic actions or diplomacy won't make them leave. Military action will.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby hanumadu » 01 Jul 2020 13:24

Interesting take on China's objectives for the border stand off. It wan'ts to condition Indians into not antagonizing China on trade, technology and its world power ambitions. A psychological conditioning that will shackle us into not doing things that we should be doing if we perceive it may anger China.

So far, it seems to be having an opposite effect.

Added Later: I see a link for the tweet has already been posted above by user pushkar.bhatt.

Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 01 Jul 2020 13:40

Tales if salami slicing (from the ThePrint so TIFWIW)
Ladakhi nomads not allowed to graze herds along LAC, warned of Chinese intrusions

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chola » 01 Jul 2020 13:50

vinod wrote:
chola wrote:
You won't announce a war but you can ready a nation for war.

IMHO probably covid and covid-related economics with some anti-chinese bans. But if it is a big across the board ban on chini products then it would be close to war settings and the nation has to be prepared.

If the ban or chini retaliation cuts off APIs for our pharma then it will impact everything from the chini fight to our covid response to our exports. Ban on parts can disrupt or close down the auto and electronics industries.


You worry too much unnecessarily. The chinese companies want to sell stuff. They will sell it through third parties and Indian govt can look away when convenient to them.


Not worry but readying the nation to take the necessary steps and pain to break away from dependence on chini components. Looking the other way will not fix the issue. Industries that are dependent will have to take losses and be pressured to reorient their supply chains.

There are things like the APIs that the GOI might want to look the other way because those will impact lives immediately. But there is no guarantee that the supply chain will stay intact after the first shots of the hindi-chini trade war.

(The chinis have not gone into generic end products but stayed in the API components space so they can supply major Western brands. They didn't want to soil those relationships by competing against them. Why do you think they sell our pharma industry the APIs but not go into making the generic drugs themselves?)

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Venkarl » 01 Jul 2020 14:08

Prem Kumar wrote:I really hope that the "ban 59 Chinese apps" is a permanent move & not some babu's idea of generating a chip that can be bargained away in exchange for the Chinese moving back to their April positions.

Chinese apps need to stay banned for their own sake. The same for Chinese hardware - mobiles, Huawei etc. These actions were long overdue, Galwan or no Galwan.


No matter which Babu proposed this idea, I am guessing that Doval's approval is required as a part of bigger response.
Now, talking about Doval, he is fierce and methodical in his earlier interviews w.r.t national security with his offensive defense approach.
Galwan incident wouldn't be easy on him definitely. I am counting on him rather than Modiji or Anti-Modi parties or Trump :P .

https://zeenews.india.com/india/exclusive-nsa-ajit-doval-warned-7-years-ago-on-china-pakistan-teaming-up-against-india-2292559.html
Last edited by Venkarl on 01 Jul 2020 14:25, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2020 14:15

Ignore the channel ... the commentator is legit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l_aAPCtn5A
How Can India Fight China's Cyber Attack? Jayadeva Ranade Explains | The Quint
President of Centre for China Analysis & Strategy, Jayadeva Ranade


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chola » 01 Jul 2020 14:41

Anyone who thinks the chinis want to fight can read this. They are scared sh!tless of taking casualties. This is not Uncle Mao's human wave army.

If you let them, they will want to squat in the gray zone ala LAC and outbuild you with infrastructure.

The way to deal with a bovine race of non-warriors that wins by crowding you out is to fight them. And you have to instigate, waiting for them to attack you first is like waiting for a buffalo to bite you for meat.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/china-veterans-hurt-by-regime-may-challenge-xi-leadership-dissident-2254958


China Fears Admitting Galwan Casualties May Lead To Unrest: Dissident

Jianli Yang, a Chinese dissident and son of a former Communist Party leader, said "The CCP leadership cannot afford to undermine the veterans' potential to launch a collective and armed anti-regime action"

World ANI
Updated: July 01, 2020 11:28 am IST

Washington DC: Disgruntled retired and serving Chinese Army cadres, who are hurt by the treatment meted out by the government, can launch an "armed" anti-regime action against Xi Jinping's government, said Jianli Yang, a Chinese dissident and son of a former Communist Party leader.
In an opinion piece in The Washington Post, Jianli Yang, the founder and president of Citizen Power Initiatives for China, writes that Beijing fears that the admitting that it had lost troops, that too more in number than its opponent, could lead to major domestic unrest that can even put the regime of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at stake.

...

Jianli is of the view that at the root of this fear is the simmering resentment running in the hearts and minds of 57 million veterans of China's PLA.

He explains that veterans are holding frequent mass protests across China hoping to shame the government into recognising its obligation towards those who battled along the country's borders in the past.

...

Jianli says the country which has the world's largest army, does not have a central agency to administer pensions and other benefits to its veterans. Resultantly, veterans are forced to depend on local governments for pensions, medical care and other basic benefits.

"However, due to wide disparity in the financial standings of the local governments, there is no standard or uniformity in what the veterans receive. After having given their youth and shed blood for the country, the veterans find themselves left by the CCP to the mercy of often corrupt local officials, making them feel like donkeys slaughtered after they are too old to work a grindstone," he adds.


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 01 Jul 2020 14:47

If we want to fight, we need to fight when we can guarantee victory by having decent local MIC. No point going in to war with a 15T economy with imported kit.

If GoI really wants in the next year or two, local MIC can provide the bread & butter of artillery, rockets and A2G weapon. The Chinis are not going anywhere and as long as we don't agreed for status quo and keep the stand off going we will have the opportunity.

Once you are ready, create an incident..

If the Chini attack us first, we throw whatever we have got..

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby AshishA » 01 Jul 2020 14:49

hanumadu wrote:Interesting take on China's objectives for the border stand off. It wan'ts to condition Indians into not antagonizing China on trade, technology and its world power ambitions. A psychological conditioning that will shackle us into not doing things that we should be doing if we perceive it may anger China.

So far, it seems to be having an opposite effect.

Added Later: I see a link for the tweet has already been posted above by user pushkar.bhatt.

Image


I don't understand this psychology. If someone hurts me I am not supposed to anger him more? And avoid crossing paths with him? Instead of doing everything to pummel that bully down or hurt him innumerable ways? What sort of thinking is this?

Anyway, in case of this incident, I am glad that it's having an opposite effect instead of the psychological conditioning that the Chinese hoped for.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 01 Jul 2020 14:58

It is Psychology of Nazis and Hitler, after Battle of Britain they thought the British will sue for peace and then attack the Soviet Union. In fact they got so desperate that Hitler sent Rudolp Hess in April 1941 to try and make peace.

The CCP has the Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan brains- they will keep pushing boundaries, if initial actions are good they will get victory disease and start a world war, if it is bad, regime will collapse due to its own propoganda.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby vishvak » 01 Jul 2020 15:05

Protests in Japan for democracy in China

Hopefully it happens minus the same bad lacuna in another form.
Last edited by SSridhar on 01 Jul 2020 16:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chola » 01 Jul 2020 15:16

nam wrote:If we want to fight, we need to fight when we can guarantee victory by having decent local MIC. No point going in to war with a 15T economy with imported kit.

If GoI really wants in the next year or two, local MIC can provide the bread & butter of artillery, rockets and A2G weapon. The Chinis are not going anywhere and as long as we don't agreed for status quo and keep the stand off going we will have the opportunity.

Once you are ready, create an incident..

If the Chini attack us first, we throw whatever we have got..


Nam ji, the longer you wait the less feasible the offensive option becomes. They went from three brigades to adding at least two new mech divisions in Tibet and growing.

Remember, we have the numbers now. It would be different if the numbers were balanced before. Since Doklam, the numbers have been reversing because the chinis had taken advantage of the "no shoot" agreement to go cheap on a the border as a dividend.

That 15T economy will come into greater and greatee affect every year we wait. The idea is to take advantage of the remaining advantages we have now before they dissipates and create pain for them in casualties as the article suggests. They can deny the 43 but can they deny 430 or 4300?

We haven't released pictures of bodies or prisoners yet because Modi seems to want peace. There is no reason not to unless the idea is to allow them space to back down. And that worried me because it plays into their game.

They don't want to fight and take casualties. They want to crowd you out of the disputed zone by making war unlikely.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby AshishA » 01 Jul 2020 15:29

Okay I was reading about Gen Schwarzkopf. And reading about the gulf war portion I found something interesting.

U.S. commanders from the beginning wanted a quick conflict characterized by decisive, overwhelming force, as opposed to the gradual escalation of U.S. involvement as had been seen in Vietnam


Most of the US and allied forces, however, were not combat veterans, and Schwarzkopf and the other allied commanders wanted to fight cautiously to minimize casualties


The above statements explain the Chinese obsession with Gulf war. The major problems faced by the SHA in any war will be it's inability to take high casualties because of one child policy and its lack of combat veterans. But as we can see by using the methodologies used in the gulf war, SHA can actually fight and win. (Atleast that's what they think)

Which is why the Chinese are obsessed with that war.
.
So how does it relate to the recent scenario? I believe Beijing will not launch a full scale war unless and until they have overwhelming forces in the region. Thus, I doubt they are even going to contest the local areas if we forcibly remove them.

I think the Modi-doval duo are bidding their time and building up forces just in case full scale war happens. But I am pretty confident that we are currently building up economic pressure which will culminate into retaking the finger areas militarily.

Then let China decide if it wants to go to war for a few finger areas and risk putting it's cities under missile attacks or hide it's casualties, erase every trace of it from social media and pretend it never happened.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby chola » 01 Jul 2020 15:38

Aditya_V wrote:It is Psychology of Nazis and Hitler, after Battle of Britain they thought the British will sue for peace and then attack the Soviet Union. In fact they got so desperate that Hitler sent Rudolp Hess in April 1941 to try and make peace.

The CCP has the Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan brains- they will keep pushing boundaries, if initial actions are good they will get victory disease and start a world war, if it is bad, regime will collapse due to its own propoganda.


Japan and Germany are warrior races. The chinis are the direct opposite. The Axis were fighting way before WWII. They had a track record of wars in Spain and Manchuria. The CCP hadn't fought a war in 40 years.

We are according the 10-foot tall Wehrmacht and Samurai images to a shorter even more rice-eating race than our own. BULL MANURE.

Cheen will not fight. That is what makes them dangerous. They are a prudent cowardly race that became a power by NOT fighting but by manufacturing and by crowding in the gray zones. Forget the pseudo science psychology mumble jumble. Great Powers become great by repeating what works for them. Fighting wars doesn't work for Cheen so they didn't do it for 40 years while its power grew to unprecedented heights. Now suddenly it will change that strategy?

No, that's not going to happen. What is happening now is that it wants to build up the chini-bharati border just like the SCS. Instead of artificial islands and ships in the sea, it will be bases and vehicles in the mountains. They are banking they can get more machines and infrastructure there than we can and that is where the 15T economy and their MIC will come into play.

We can fight their logistics fight or we can fight our kinetics one. But the longer we wait, the less feasible the kinetics one becomes because logistics speeds up force placements which reduces our numbers advantage.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2020 15:48

abhik wrote:Paxis didn't want to be left out I guess.
Pakistan moves 20,000 soldiers to Gilgit-Baltistan LoC

Bakis are begging for a trashing ... sooner or later they are going to get it.

Going after GB will take the fight both to the Chinese and the Baki even while we hold the Chinese back in Ladakh.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Dilbu » 01 Jul 2020 15:55

There are news reports that an agreement has been reached according to which china will withdraw from Galwan. No agreement on Pangong Tso yet.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2020 15:59

AshishAcharya wrote:
hanumadu wrote:Interesting take on China's objectives for the border stand off. It wan'ts to condition Indians into not antagonizing China on trade, technology and its world power ambitions. A psychological conditioning that will shackle us into not doing things that we should be doing if we perceive it may anger China.

So far, it seems to be having an opposite effect.

Added Later: I see a link for the tweet has already been posted above by user pushkar.bhatt.

<snip image>

I don't understand this psychology. If someone hurts me I am not supposed to anger him more? And avoid crossing paths with him? Instead of doing everything to pummel that bully down or hurt him innumerable ways? What sort of thinking is this?

Anyway, in case of this incident, I am glad that it's having an opposite effect instead of the psychological conditioning that the Chinese hoped for.
Strange but true ... happens all the time in international relationship.

It is also called "appeasement" so that one is left alone in the future. India till Modi came long was mostly in an appeasement mode definitely with China but also with Bakistan on many occasions. We i.e. our "intellectuals" would even invent excuse for Bakistan.

To take another example, Philippines has been under appeasement mode under their current president. And these are not unique examples.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Shivaji » 01 Jul 2020 16:00

abhik wrote:Paxis didn't want to be left out I guess.
Pakistan moves 20,000 soldiers to Gilgit-Baltistan LoC


I had been thinking as to why we are pounding on LOC while remain vigilant on LAC. Coupled this with sudden spurt of attacks in Pakistan proper, are we expecting Pakistan to do some mischief in J&K which we can respond by going kinetic in Gilgit-Baltistan. Two birds in one stone. If Chinese intervene, they would look like supporting terrorist action.

This movement seems to be coupled to that fear.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Manish_Sharma » 01 Jul 2020 16:13

TWITTER

@SJha1618

I don't like what I am seeing. The PLAGF has clearly moved to block some of the possible retaliation/riposte axes in Eastern Ladakh. How long before they build up some more for a move into Depsang ? They are clearly acting in phases.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/127 ... 22720?s=19

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2020 16:18

AshishAcharya wrote:Okay I was reading about Gen Schwarzkopf. And reading about the gulf war portion I found something interesting.

U.S. commanders from the beginning wanted a quick conflict characterized by decisive, overwhelming force, as opposed to the gradual escalation of U.S. involvement as had been seen in Vietnam


Most of the US and allied forces, however, were not combat veterans, and Schwarzkopf and the other allied commanders wanted to fight cautiously to minimize casualties


The above statements explain the Chinese obsession with Gulf war. The major problems faced by the SHA in any war will be it's inability to take high casualties because of one child policy and its lack of combat veterans. But as we can see by using the methodologies used in the gulf war, SHA can actually fight and win. (Atleast that's what they think)

Which is why the Chinese are obsessed with that war.
.
So how does it relate to the recent scenario? I believe Beijing will not launch a full scale war unless and until they have overwhelming forces in the region. Thus, I doubt they are even going to contest the local areas if we forcibly remove them.

I think the Modi-doval duo are bidding their time and building up forces just in case full scale war happens. But I am pretty confident that we are currently building up economic pressure which will culminate into retaking the finger areas militarily.

Then let China decide if it wants to go to war for a few finger areas and risk putting it's cities under missile attacks or hide it's casualties, erase every trace of it from social media and pretend it never happened.


1. The Chinese want a contact less war and victory therefore they fantasize about Gulf war but China is not US and India is not Iraq.

2. A contact-less war is only possible by using rocket forces but that is escalation and they will get a response in kinds, at least at the border.

3. Plus once war starts Indian will lose their current reticence and go on attack on the ground. That can only be countered by Chinese men willing hold ground and die in the process.

4. Therefore, Chinese want victory without a fight. Therefore, occupation by stealth (Pangong Tso) and a show of force to deter India.

Current action by India are not sufficient by themselves to force China to pull back. However, by launching a frontal attack on the Chinese economic interest in India, we are forcing the Chinese to react.

1. China not react will be spun as Chinese weakness both in India and within China plus the world. It will set a template for other countries to follow. Very risky for China. Remember, India was the lone big country on BRI but later that position was endorsed by most major countries of the world. From Chinese pov, such actions need to be forcefully be put down lest it ignite the world.

2. Chinese reacting will mean the Chinese will create long-term memories in India of their back-stabbing in Ladakh. The longer this drags the more it will be imprinted on the collective consciousness of Indians. This is a challenge to China because it is the only major single market that will not only grow but also is under penetrated form their pov.

So what the GOI has done is that while holding the line in Ladakh, GOI has thrown a challenge to the Chinese that may not be apparent to many of us here on the forum. The Chinese now have a dilemma of trying to teach Modi/India a lesson at the same time not trying to turn Indian against China for the next 2 generations AND make the Chinese people and the world feel that they have shown India its place.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Dilbu » 01 Jul 2020 16:19

China Agrees Parameters for Galwan Valley Pullback, But No Breakthrough on Pangong in Round 3 of LAC Talks
Lieutenant General Harinder Singh, the commander of India’s Leh-based XIV corps, and his People’s Liberation Army counterpart, South Xinjiang military region chief Major-General Liu Lin, have agreed on broad parameters to disengage troops in some contested zones along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, government sources familiar with the negotiations have told News18.

The two commanders met on Tuesday at the frontier outpost of Chushul, for talks that ran twelve hours. This was the third in a series of meetings so far. Neither New Delhi nor Beijing have issued any official communiqué or comment on the negotiations.

Parameters, the sources said, have now been agreed to disengage troops at Patrolling Point 14, 15 and 17, running from the Galwan Valley to the Hot Springs area, involving the PLA pulling back some hundreds of metres from territories claimed by India.

Government sources, however, said there had been little progress on ending the confrontation along the Pangong lake, the site of the largest build-up on the LAC, the source of a violent clash on May 5 that left soldiers on both sides severely injured.

“PLA commanders have shown no flexibility on Pangong so far,” an official said. “I think the reality is we’ll see piece-by-piece progress over a period of time… not the kind of one-shot settlement some might be hoping for,” the official added.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Vadivel » 01 Jul 2020 16:26

Dilbu wrote:China Agrees Parameters for Galwan Valley Pullback, But No Breakthrough on Pangong in Round 3 of LAC Talks
Lieutenant General Harinder Singh, the commander of India’s Leh-based XIV corps, and his People’s Liberation Army counterpart, South Xinjiang military region chief Major-General Liu Lin, have agreed on broad parameters to disengage troops in some contested zones along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, government sources familiar with the negotiations have told News18.

The two commanders met on Tuesday at the frontier outpost of Chushul, for talks that ran twelve hours. This was the third in a series of meetings so far. Neither New Delhi nor Beijing have issued any official communiqué or comment on the negotiations.

Parameters, the sources said, have now been agreed to disengage troops at Patrolling Point 14, 15 and 17, running from the Galwan Valley to the Hot Springs area, involving the PLA pulling back some hundreds of metres from territories claimed by India.

Government sources, however, said there had been little progress on ending the confrontation along the Pangong lake, the site of the largest build-up on the LAC, the source of a violent clash on May 5 that left soldiers on both sides severely injured.

“PLA commanders have shown no flexibility on Pangong so far,” an official said. “I think the reality is we’ll see piece-by-piece progress over a period of time… not the kind of one-shot settlement some might be hoping for,” the official added.


Two steps forward on step back.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rsatchi » 01 Jul 2020 16:26

pankajs wrote:
abhik wrote:Paxis didn't want to be left out I guess.
Pakistan moves 20,000 soldiers to Gilgit-Baltistan LoC

Bakis are begging for a trashing ... sooner or later they are going to get it.

Going after GB will take the fight both to the Chinese and the Baki even while we hold the Chinese back in Ladakh.

Pankajji
I wonder whether the Chinese are egging the Bakis.
And use them as cannon fodder in case hostilities break out in Galwan, ask the Bakis to attack from the West.
Last edited by Rsatchi on 01 Jul 2020 16:28, edited 1 time in total.

pankajs
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2020 16:27

Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER

@SJha1618

I don't like what I am seeing. The PLAGF has clearly moved to block some of the possible retaliation/riposte axes in Eastern Ladakh. How long before they build up some more for a move into Depsang ? They are clearly acting in phases.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/127 ... 22720?s=19

The Chinese can block but we cannot block?!!

This is what makes me wary of Indian analyst. Most are either, India attacks and the opponent falls flat for a weaker adversary or the converse!

OTOH, the Chinese will have to fight instead of just winning by intimidating. Once a battle starts, there will be casualties and there will be a winner and looser. IFF the Chinese loose, there will be hell to pay for CCP, both at home, the Champs sea and around the world.

Would the Chinese like to roll the dice on that?


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