India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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kirpalbasra
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby kirpalbasra » 02 Jul 2020 04:20

VikramS wrote:
kirpalbasra wrote:Just to let you know all these maps of positions of Chinese position that people keep going on about are not accurate. There is margin of error so that that when you draw the LAC it can show Indians in Chinese land and the opposite. So take the maps with a pinch of salt . Maps used by ARMY /NAVY AIR FORCE ARE MUCK MORE ACCURATE.. Cant say more or they will coming knocking at my door..


Read somewhere that the thickness of the pen used to mark the LAC corresponds to a KM or more of actual terrain....

Without getting my self in trouble you are on the right track. In armed forces you have inch maps.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nachiket » 02 Jul 2020 04:24

People need to stop with the "New X weapon from Y country will save us" narrative. No silver bullet foreign weapon system is going to suddenly arrive in India and make all the difference. We already have enough people salivating over 6 Rafales showing up in a month and somehow turning the tables on the PLAAF which otherwise has us completely outmatched apparently or the Russians magically delivering the S400 more than a year in advance.

If the balloon goes up, we will have to fight with whatever is already available. Only new purchases will be topping up stocks of existing inventory and ammunition reserves. Everything else is hot air.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Manish_Sharma » 02 Jul 2020 04:25

RaviB wrote:........ Their assumption is that we'll back down not because of what they're smoking but because of their overwhelming firepower.


1962 was "Human Waves", 2020 is opposite; soldiers are precious 'little emperors', so using their "Monster MIC" they'll attack with "Overwhelming Firepower".

Due to their superior roads network and Train they can bring Heavy MBRLs, Heavy Artillery, while we airlift Gold Plated M777.

Hope we have MBRLs on chinese border.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby fanne » 02 Jul 2020 04:26

f-35 in air superiority role will be a game changer (if we get it). We should get it if it is approved. It will be a far big game changer than Rafale. A 40-60 unit purchase will keep our top end fixed (perhaps no more extra buying of Rafale), while we bulk the airforce with LCA, mk1a, mk2, TEDBF and ORCA.

Of course do not know enough if it will make difference in the current stand off (owing to training and integration)

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Raveen » 02 Jul 2020 04:30

kirpalbasra wrote:
VikramS wrote:Folks there is some chatter of F-35 sales to India being approved by the US Senate.

Regardless of whether there is any permanent purchase, a squadron of "loaned"aircraft distributed in sets of 2-3 over a few airbases, can really help IAF. They can be the ambush bandits, firing long range AMRAAMs from the flank while the existing IAF planes wrangle with the PLAAF.

F-35 is a fly by wire aircraft, easy to fly. My wild ass guess is that an experienced IAF pilot can reach a point where they become proficient in taking BVR shots in a week...

Doesn't hurt to get that process of training going on simulators.

Really you talk a lot of crap you friend lent you his Ferrari you think you could drive it to its full potential. I joined this forum because its the best don'ts let me down.


For someone with 5 posts, I'd ask you to revisit the rules of the forum before you attack anyone personally irrespective of the view or post

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nachiket » 02 Jul 2020 04:30

Manish_Sharma wrote:1962 was "Human Waves", 2020 is opposite; soldiers are precious 'little emperors', so using their "Monster MIC" they'll attack with "Overwhelming Firepower".

Due to their superior roads network and Train they can bring Heavy MBRLs, Heavy Artillery, while we airlift Gold Plated M777.

Hope we have MBRLs on chinese border.

You have a severe case of 10 foot Chinaman syndrome. If what you say is true, we better withdraw from Ladakh entirely and let them take whatever land they want since it is impossible to fight the mighty PLA anyway. This is not the first post you have made in this vein.

You're skating on thin ice here with these ridiculous posts. Don't think the mods haven't noticed. If you continue in this manner you can expect post deletion, warnings and more.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nachiket » 02 Jul 2020 04:33

kirpalbasra wrote:Really you talk a lot of crap you friend lent you his Ferrari you think you could drive it to its full potential. I joined this forum because its the best don'ts let me down.

kirpalbasra, if you have a problem with someone's post report it to the mods. Attacking other posters will get you banned. Letting you go this time since you are new.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VikramS » 02 Jul 2020 04:37

kirpalbasra wrote:
VikramS wrote:Folks there is some chatter of F-35 sales to India being approved by the US Senate.

Regardless of whether there is any permanent purchase, a squadron of "loaned"aircraft distributed in sets of 2-3 over a few airbases, can really help IAF. They can be the ambush bandits, firing long range AMRAAMs from the flank while the existing IAF planes wrangle with the PLAAF.

F-35 is a fly by wire aircraft, easy to fly. My wild ass guess is that an experienced IAF pilot can reach a point where they become proficient in taking BVR shots in a week...

Doesn't hurt to get that process of training going on simulators.

Really you talk a lot of crap you friend lent you his Ferrari you think you could drive it to its full potential. I joined this forum because its the best don'ts let me down.


If I were a race car driver, who knows how to drive a McLaren F1 car, I should be able to get comfortable in a Ferrari F1 car in a few days.

The goal here is not to become fully proficient in using the F-35. Goal is to ambush and take long range BVR shots. Will require some basic engineering to integrate comms/data-sharing but that can be done even with a iPad stuck somewhere inside the cockpit since most modern systems are modular and follow standard bus protocols.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nachiket » 02 Jul 2020 04:49

VikramS and others, please take any wishlist for F-35's or any other super weapon of your choice to the International Aerospace or military miscellaneous threads. Further posts about them in this thread will be deleted without notice.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby fanne » 02 Jul 2020 04:53

Btw be careful, my computer has been hacked in the last few days...courtesy the usual suspect

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby LakshmanPST » 02 Jul 2020 05:06

KLNMurthy wrote:We have the analysis of the China-India conflict from a Chinese perspective, right here, it has been posted before on BRF.

https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/china ... akh-clash/



Reading this article and few other posts written in this thread, one analogy I can give for China is---> If we consider CCP ruled China as person, then China is a Narcissist...
Wiki definition of narcissism---> "Narcissistic personality disorder (NPD) is a personality disorder characterized by a long-term pattern of exaggerated feelings of self-importance, an excessive need for admiration, and a lack of empathy toward other people."

A narcissistic person considers that he is the best in the world, though he knows that he is actually not, but refuses to accept the same... He lives in this intentional self-denial mode...
He feels that he is being brought down by everyone in the world... He feels the world is constantly conspiring against him and hence is always hyper vigilant... Even a casual joke or act by anyone (even ppl close to him) is enough to infuriate them and they consider it as a slight against them...
He constantly feels the urge to 'prove' his superiority to the next person even over silly things... He also need to periodically bully the weaker person next to him just to make himself feel superior... It is the reason why narcissists have no real friends... Narcissists are never loyal to anyone but they expect loyalty from everyone...
Narcissists also project themselves onto the opposite person... Even if the opposite person does not have the same thoughts as him, they assume that the opposite person is thinking like him... That is why narcissists never trust others... He will never accept that there can be ppl with different mindsets...

You can NEVER win a narcissist's approval by appeasing him... It only feeds to his ego and he feels he has the divine right to keep bullying you...
If you keep emotionally reacting to each and every little provocation from him, it feeds into his ego... They call it their 'daily supply of narcissism'... And they keep doing it again and again...

A pure Narcissist lacks ethics... Narcissists cheat on others without any remorse or regret... Narcissists lie a lot with a straight face...
Whatever he does for his self-interest is the only right thing for him... He respects social contracts only as long as it benefits him... If he feels breaking of a social-contract is beneficial, he will do it without any second thoughts or respect for the opposite person...
-
In psychology, the opposite of a Narcissist is an Empath... Empaths constantly try to understand the opposite person, give importance to others' feelings and are often ready to sacrifice their personal interests for the benefit of others... Empaths are the most common Narcissist-magnets... Narcissists literally love (love, as in, love to use and bully) Empaths...
An Empath constantly gives concessions to a Narcissist in the hope that Narcissist will someday show trust, love and respect to him... But to the Narcissist, it feeds his ego... A Narcissist will NEVER respects the Empath, but will take full advantage of the Empath's urge to win his approval...
Often times, an Empath will try to win a Narcissist's trust forever, but in vain...

In many ways, the Gandhian way of life or Nehruvian Foreign Policy is like an Empath mindset... Frankly speaking, a pure Empath will make a bad king...
Nehru constantly appeased China during his tenure... He helped them occupy Tibet... He gave them UNSC permanent seat... He did one-sided initiatives like Panchasheel etc...
What happened in the end, we all know...
Even after Nehru, until Doklam, India kept appeasing China in the hope of befriending it... It constantly kept giving concessions along LAC, recongnized Tibet as integral part of China, agreed to their demand of not demarcating LAC, signed agreement of no-guns, ignored development of infrastructure on its borders, kept accepting new LAC positions & grey areas... Everything...
All this only gave Narcissistic supply to China... Nothing else... China considered it as their natural right to demand all these concessions from India... It never saw it as Indians trying to gain China's trust or friendship...
----
There are three ways to deal with a Narcissistic bully--->
1) Ignore low level actions and behave as if his actions are silly & childish that can't effect you in anyway... There is nothing more infuriating to a Narcissist than being ignored by others, particularly those who they consider inferior... The problem with this is, they keep increasing the intensity of bullying until you start responding...
2) Stand up to the bully's false bravado... Often times, the bully will create a fake aura of overwhelming superiority... If you stand-up to him, his bluff will be called... So, they will go back... But problem with this response is, once the tempers are cooled, he will be back to bullying you with bigger intensity...
3) Give a strong punch right in the face, so that he stops bullying you ever again... But the problem with this is, we do not know the end-result of the fight particularly if the power balance is even... Unfortunately, this is the only way to deal with them for long-lasting results...
But there is a catch here---> They often do not fight unless they're sure that they'll win... Narcissist's strength comes from projecting existent/non-existent power and he is very afraid of being seen as weak or even as equal to someone he considers inferior... So, even a drawn result is a loss from their perspective, coz. they do not want any result except overwhelming victory and dominance...
----
Many analysts try to equate Modi Govt. with previous Govts., but fact is, this Govt. brought significant shift in Chinese policy from total appeasement of previous Govts....
1) First, we ignored Chinese indirect warnings to not develop border infrastructure, ignored their minor incursions along LAC in last 5 years, hardly gave any importance to their statements on Kashmir & Ladakh, removed Article 370 inspite of their protests...
2) we went to next level when we stood-up to them in Doklam... So now they returned back with increased intensity to Aksai Chin and LAC...

If Modi goes to next level 3, i.e. punching them in the face, we have a chance to end this bullying for a really long time... However, the cost of such a move is very high... But as much as we want to avoid it, a war between China and India will happen, if not now, in future...
This is the test for Modi's resolve...
Even if we return to Status quo at LAC, they will come back again next year... However, if we hold our ground now, it is still a significant shift in our China policy...
I would consider Modi's China policy a failure only if status quo is not restored and we deescalate... As of now, he is standing up to the bully...

But there is one big mistake Modi Govt. did...
The one thing that any psychiatrist will suggest you about dealing with Narcissists is to stay away from them as much as possible, cut all ties with them and never maintain relations with them... Particularly NEVER to be dependent on them...
The mistake Modi did is increasing trade and business relations with them... Ban of Chinese Apps and not giving them business opportunities in India is a good start in reversing the trend... But one thing that SHOULD be done is complete breaking of trade-relations with China...
If we are dependent on them for any product or material, it should be our highest priority to create a local or an alternate source for the same...
----
To conclude, there should always be a balance between self-interests and giving concessions for others... Either extremes are bad... And in International relations, there are no Friends, only allies... Unfortunately, this common sense was lacking in previous Govts. and in our Nehruvian babudom...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 02 Jul 2020 05:52


VikramS
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VikramS » 02 Jul 2020 06:06

LakshmanPST wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:We have the analysis of the China-India conflict from a Chinese perspective, right here, it has been posted before on BRF.

https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/china ... akh-clash/



Reading this article and few other posts written in this thread, one analogy I can give for China is---> If we consider CCP ruled China as person, then China is a Narcissist...
Wiki definition of narcissism---> "Narcissistic personality disorder (NPD) is a personality disorder characterized by a long-term pattern of exaggerated feelings of self-importance, an excessive need for admiration, and a lack of empathy toward other people."



Nailed it.

Share it with the PMO handle on twitter or send an email..

I think by restricting Chinese companies and trade, Modi is trying to undo the embrace.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby fanne » 02 Jul 2020 06:52

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/wp-c ... at_Beg.jpg

Chinese and Pakistanis are trying to cut off this region. Draw a parllel line east to west passing Kargil. They want to cut off India area above that, of course bypassing Siachin and the mountain. Whatever land that the mountain routes would allow. The same indus river (and hence a pass for troops to move along its banks) flows from Leh to Skardu to where the CPEC road crosses it. That could be one good axis for any force to advance.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 02 Jul 2020 07:37

VikramS wrote:
kirpalbasra wrote:Really you talk a lot of crap you friend lent you his Ferrari you think you could drive it to its full potential. I joined this forum because its the best don'ts let me down.


If I were a race car driver, who knows how to drive a McLaren F1 car, I should be able to get comfortable in a Ferrari F1 car in a few days.

The goal here is not to become fully proficient in using the F-35. Goal is to ambush and take long range BVR shots. Will require some basic engineering to integrate comms/data-sharing but that can be done even with a iPad stuck somewhere inside the cockpit since most modern systems are modular and follow standard bus protocols.



Do you have an idea of what is involved in supporting a high-performance fighter?
Do you know what level of "not fully proficient" is acceptable before being able to get into a position to take a BVR shot?
What is this basic engineering that you speak of for comms/data - sharing?
If it could be done with an iPad do you not think that our existing fleet would not have been completely networked by now?


Please think things through before posting.....

Admins I will report that post..

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby bharathp » 02 Jul 2020 07:42

some posts back there was a question of "what is our objective w.r.t China?"
both short term and long term, here is what I have gathered from my understanding:

constraints:
1) LAC needs to be tranquil and peaceful until both countries agree on a defined border through talks. This was agreed in 1993.
2) The chinese side did not accept LAC, and the Indian side did not say this was "intl border" but an LAC only.

Targets:
1) short term goal: remove chinese from the LAC area of the Indian perception, but we cannot enforce the Chinese side of LAC at present (pragmatic thinking, given that they have the capability to feed supply lines and keep their side of LAC fully fed) - hence build all border infra to get our side of LAC fully defensible with whatever we have, even throw out chinese if they come into our LAC (already happened) - sub par govts have allowed the nibbling/salami slicing this stops from this govt onwards

2) medium term goal, develop India + MIC and still dont accept that LAC is intl border (even with subpar govts, the LAC was not accepted as full intl border, that gives me some warm fuzzies)

3) long term goal (diverging views): if TSP and Lizard have no problem with India's rise, then our aman ka tamasha group + Nationalist group can both be satisfied if we stop at our Intl borders are back with us. (Gosthana and Bltistan, Jammu as well)
if TSP or Lizard whoever has a problem with it, get strong enough to be able to take what is ours. in the process if TSP breaks, so be it.

stretch goal: India should be non aligned not in terms of economics (communist/capitalist) but in terms of our way of life (Sanatan dharma). while the west is heavily christianised, near east heavily islamic and ( china heavily profit motive-d), each trying to impose their "Way of life" on all countries they touch, India has uniquely let their "sphere of influence" live as they please. case in point:
Maldives is completely islamic to the point that their constitution prohibits any non-islamic citizen (anyone not islamic is not a citizen period)
Nepal for a long time was the only "hindu dharmic" country, now democracy
Bhutan is largely budhist

in the final long term, India should be the umbrella to whoever decides they dont want a religion or a way of life imposed on them. this is the grand vision and strategy. this itself will make sure that any culture or religion that has a "our way is the only right way" cannot co-exist with us.

china does not allow a dissenting voice - India does - use this in every forum - regional, global, local
India allows all religions freedom so long as they also agree every religion is equal - something no islamic, christian country can allow - a defense against BIF as well

we should not lose our dharma because we deal with a lizard. the satisfaction of cutting the lizards tail while being dharmic has a bigger and more long term strategic goal - a possibility that makes the ASEAN countries embrace their Indic past out of choice and not out of compulsion (not islamicised through petro dollars and fanaticism, not missionari-sed by vatican funds and not looted through the Han dynasty)

my 2 n.p

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby TandavBrahmand » 02 Jul 2020 07:42

LakshmanPST wrote:
Reading this article and few other posts written in this thread, one analogy I can give for China is---> If we consider CCP ruled China as a person, then China is a Narcissist...

snip



After RaviB ji posted his analysis from the cultural perspective, this is another accurate analysis of China as a person.
1000% agree.

Not to dhotishiver but if #3 fails against a bully like China, let there be no doubt that we would not have anyone coming to our rescue. We must do it on our own to provide the punch to the bully.

If they throw us MIC at us, we should play to our strength and start grabbing physical territories that we can hold on to. I am sure planners must have drawn up what that would be if the balloon goes up.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Cain Marko » 02 Jul 2020 07:51

The main objective should always be to make cpec impossible. Whether that is by taking over PoK (the pakistanis are now kind of on to this) or disrupting it via occasional strikes or by raising the spectre of Baloch army, doesn't matter. This needs to go.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VikramS » 02 Jul 2020 08:38

ks_sachin wrote:
VikramS wrote:
If I were a race car driver, who knows how to drive a McLaren F1 car, I should be able to get comfortable in a Ferrari F1 car in a few days.

The goal here is not to become fully proficient in using the F-35. Goal is to ambush and take long range BVR shots. Will require some basic engineering to integrate comms/data-sharing but that can be done even with a iPad stuck somewhere inside the cockpit since most modern systems are modular and follow standard bus protocols.



Do you have an idea of what is involved in supporting a high-performance fighter?
Do you know what level of "not fully proficient" is acceptable before being able to get into a position to take a BVR shot?
What is this basic engineering that you speak of for comms/data - sharing?
If it could be done with an iPad do you not think that our existing fleet would not have been completely networked by now?


Please think things through before posting.....

Admins I will report that post..


Are you an engineer? Have you designed systems?

We are obviously not talking about a fully functional system. We are talking about using the loaned F-35s for a very specific task. Taking long range BVR shots.

Its job is to get into a specific coordinate specified by the AWACS/Battle Controller, launch its Long Range missiles and scoot back.

Think about flying a FBW fighter: Most of the time you are providing input and the FCS is taking care of things. And we are not talking about dogfights here, but long distance shots. An experienced pilot should be able to get to that level of basic proficiency in a few days of flying.

What would it take to integrate with the existing comms system of the IAF?

A secure communication system. Now most modern systems are Modular. You can extract the system components and integrate them with the some form of display (any modern tablet would have enough processing power).

That "jerry-rigged" comms device can then get targeting coordinates and other situational awareness information from IAF AWACS or other fighters which are lighting up the sky.

Then there has to be a process of transferring those coordinates into an AMRAAM launched in the fire & forget mode. Most of these systems are integrated around databuses which have standardized interfaces. These cockpit will have some way of accessing the data-bus (think an aux port). So yes, some amount of coding and hardwire jigging but nothing which can not be done in a few day by a few avionics engineers.

In this mode the F-35 does not its use its own active sensors.

Yes, it is not an ideal situation. However, we are talking about an emergency here.

The ground support needed to keep figher operations on can be done by technicians from Friendly countries.Perhaps the sortie rates would be lower than a fully functional base. But even if you can fly at half the rate, you can ensure that your critical missions have the edge.

To your comment about existing aircraft not being integrated: I am not in a position to comment on why they have not been done. My guess is that the sense of urgency is missing and there are just too many types and versions to integrate, with most platforms without modern avionic systems which will require custom engineering for every aircraft type/version.

If you want an analogy: you can think of modern aircraft as a desktop PC where different components can be integrated using the PCI bus etc. (of course is not that simple). Older platforms simply do not have that basic backplane infra which modern avionic systems have. We are talking about systems designed 3-4 decades ago.
Last edited by VikramS on 02 Jul 2020 08:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 02 Jul 2020 08:45

VikramS wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:

Do you have an idea of what is involved in supporting a high-performance fighter?
Do you know what level of "not fully proficient" is acceptable before being able to get into a position to take a BVR shot?
What is this basic engineering that you speak of for comms/data - sharing?
If it could be done with an iPad do you not think that our existing fleet would not have been completely networked by now?


Please think things through before posting.....

Admins I will report that post..


Are you an engineer? Have you designed systems?

We are obviously not talking about a fully functional system. We are talking about using the loaned F-35s for a very specific task. Taking long range BVR shots.

Its job is to get into a specific coordinate specified by the AWACS/Battle Controller, launch its Long Range missiles and scoot back.

Think about flying a FBW fighter: Most of the time you are providing input and the FCS is taking care of things. And we are not talking about dogfights here, but long distance shots. An experienced pilot should be able to get to that level of basic proficiency in a few days of flying.

What would it take to integrate with the existing comms system of the IAF?

A secure communication system. Now most modern systems are Modular. You can extract the system components and integrate them with the some form of display (any modern tablet would have enough processing power).

That "jerry-rigged" comms device can then get targeting coordinates and other situational awareness information from IAF AWACS or other fighters which are lighting up the sky.

Then there has to be a process of transferring those coordinates into an AMRAAM launched in the fire & forget mode. Most of these systems are integrated around databuses which have standardized interfaces. These cockpit will have some way of accessing the data-bus (think an aux port). So yes, some amount of coding and hardwire jigging but nothing which can not be done in a few day by a few avionics engineers.

In this mode the F-35 does not its use its own active sensors.

Yes, it is not an ideal situation. However, we are talking about an emergency here.

The ground support needed to keep figher operations on can be done by technicians from Friendly countries.Perhaps the sortie rates would be lower than a fully functional base. But even if you can fly at half the rate, you can ensure that your critical missions have the edge.

To your comment about existing aircraft not being integrated: I am not in a position to comment on why they have not been done. My guess is that the sense of urgency is missing and there are just too many types and versions to integrate, with most platforms without modern avionic systems which will require custom engineering for every aircraft type/version.


I rest my case...

I may not be an engineer but I have enough knowledge and access to knowledge to not make this a PlayStation affair..

Please continue your PlayStation stuff.....

Last you will hear from me...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 02 Jul 2020 08:49

VikramS,

The ROE on this forum restrict me from engaging you in any meaningful way. So I’ll leave you with this:

Since you claim to be an engineer, an aerodynamicist, a pilot, EW, munition, navigation and tactical expert. Please touch base with the IAF here:

https://indianairforce.nic.in/home

You may also want to try contacting the MOD or the PMO, they can be found here :

https://mod.gov.in/
http://www.pmindia.gov.in/en/

My humble recommendation for you would be to not divulge Uber secrets on this open forum and please do share directly with the decision makers.

To others claiming mil maps delineating boundaries are Uber secret. Two words for you: stolen valor. For others, military topographical maps are NOT secret, they just have a higher resolution of the same image you are looking at via N number of sources. mil Ops maps are TS, but there is nominal topographical information in them. To the effect of, BTN1 will move using pass A2 visa rd 3. Topographical data for pass a2 or rd 3 is not detailed in Ops map.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Anoop » 02 Jul 2020 09:05

In the current situation, India's imperative to seek dialogue with China is clear since we have, for now, chosen to eschew the use of firearms. I am yet to see a good reason for China to talk. The easy explanation is that they are buying time to consolidate their positions and construction.

But they could do that even if they refused talks! Their official position is that they are constructing on their territory, not on disputed territory. Just as we are refusing to discuss our construction of the DBO road, why aren't the Chinese refusing to discuss the intrusion, which according to them, isn't an intrusion at all?

During the Kargil war, we refused to talk to the Pakis, even as we were taking losses in the early stages of the war. So why are the Chinese talking? And why are each round of talks extending for over 10 hours, suggesting that there is some serious bargaining.

All that suggests that India has some serious leverage during these talks too, something that has been kept away from the public eye here. And it's certainly not in China's interest to reveal any vulnerabilities it has either. I suspect the true story may only come out in bits and pieces, if it ever does.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 02 Jul 2020 09:20

Anoop wrote:
Rs_singh wrote:1. Incorrect. That op was a mobilization disaster. We lost all the initiative by taking 6 months. Besides the end state there was not a conflict but deterrence.
2. China wants a pure and simple land grab. All else is hogwash. That objective remains Unachieved, for now. Everything else you mention is a bonus that the EN is getting. For instance , media scrutiny has been known to force the military hand when faced with public pressure with disastrous outcomes


1. Do you believe the PLA deployment now allows them to take Indian territory beyond what they have? If so, where? And how would they be able to hold that land against counterattacks?

If not, how is their situation different from India's during Op Parakram?

2. Exactly, media scrutiny has forced poor decisions. Why do you think the Chinese are not playing that hand and hoping that India will start the shooting war? Secondly, what in your calculus is the price China is willing to pay to get the land grab? At the moment, they have paid very little. Why would they not continue this game plan next summer and the summers following that?


Anoop,

1. Yes. Creep forward will continue till we decide to call a spade a spade. All this talk of diplomatic, economic actions are good only as a combined ops approach. This is plain and simple military aggression. We need to call it for it is and respond in kind. Grab land? Ah, you see, in the army, you learn to dominate physically or dominate by obs. A quick look at PLAGF pos should reveal to you which territory they’ve denied to us and where they can move fwd. I won’t go into the details, it’s freely available on twitter.

2. I’m not sure why the persistent reference to op parakram. Op parakram was a response to an act of aggression to deter further aggression. This build up iIS the act of aggression itself. If you’re thinking along the lines of “like in parakram, we built up and they built up and it was a zero sum game”, the I would say stand back and look again. Parakram was intended to be a zero sum game. We had just come out of a war and did not want another while also not coming off as weak and deterring our EN. This sit on the other hand is where EN has encroached on own land through a deliberate and aggressive act. He showed he meant business by spilling blood. Perhaps you can explain this a bit better to me if I’ve misunderstood you but I don’t see the equivalence here.

3. Why don’t we let this slide and continue the game summer after summer? Because with each passing year we get stronger. The EN has a narrow window to hit us. Besides there are several internal political compulsions for the CCP to survive. I’ve said before, this is Soviet Union 1989.

On a different note, communist regimes do not care for human life. They will fight a border war with X number of casualties. They couldn’t give a rats ass. Our public opinion will turn sour once coffins start coming back. GOI is answerable to the people, after all. We saw this in IC814, and again in Kargil, most recently. I won’t compare KIA in CT ops to KIA in conv ops, the stakes are much much higher.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 02 Jul 2020 09:35

pankajs wrote:1. The bottomline is that we cannot sustain a rocket force vs rocket force kind of play with China at the present. Our best bet it to beat them at the border and either push them out from our area or capture some of theirs for an exchange.

India today does not have the kind of long range precision strike weapons needed to target China where it hurts. Because until this present crisis was thrust on it 75% of India's defence efforts focused on Pakistan. So yes as of today that kind of a war is a non starter with China. But imagine this. Pakistan's breadth is 400km-450km at most points from Kashmir to Karachi. Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Karachi are all less than 200 km from the Indian border, Lahore is less than 30 km. So India's strike weapons are calibrated to reach these Pakistani targets. However against China which has now emerged as India's principal threat the closest Chinese cities are 2000km-2500km away. Fighting China with India's existing non-nuclear missiles and aircraft is like fighting Pakistan with artillery with a range of 40 km. If that 40 km ranged artillery was the maximum range that India could strike into Pakistan, how deterred would Pakistan be? And even within a 40 km range of the Indian border, Pakistan has assets to lose including the city of Lahore. Against China there is nothing within 300 km of the Indian border except the Tibet plateau with very little population which in any case is Tibetan so China does not care if any of them die. So yes as of today India does not have that long range strike capability. But if it wants to confront China and deter China, there is no other option but to get it pronto.

2. Finally Crude oil is useless by itself. If ones objective is to bring fuel supplies to a stop it is better to target refineries but understand that we too will suffer similar damages in response.

Sure, I did mention refineries, communication nodes, oil storage, and yes China will respond in kind. But the point is that when China knows that India has the capability to strike those refineries and power plants it will be much more circumspect about salami slicing because it will know that India can match it all the way up the escalation ladder.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 02 Jul 2020 09:44

Idev,

I agree broadly with your post. However, I feel a certain nuance is lost in it.

For a border conflict, which is most likely to happen, there are plenty of counter force options available to IA/IAF/IN in theatre of ops. We are good for about plus or minus 500K. What I suspect you’re worried about is a counter value strike against own population centers. If that were to happen it would no longer be a border conflict and the Big Boys come into play, which again have enough range to for a counter value hit, far beyond nominal IRBM range. I find this scenario least likely to happen because it threatens the very existence of the CCP.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 02 Jul 2020 09:50

Rs_singh wrote:Idev,

I agree broadly with your post. However, I feel a certain nuance is lost in it.

For a border conflict, which is most likely to happen, there are plenty of counter force options available to IA/IAF/IN in theatre of ops. We are good for about plus or minus 500K. What I suspect you’re worried about is a counter value strike against own population centers. If that were to happen it would no longer be a border conflict and the Big Boys come into play, which again have enough range to for a counter value hit, far beyond nominal IRBM range. I find this scenario least likely to happen because it threatens the very existence of the CCP.

I do not even want to guess what the Indian response will be if the PLA Rocket Forces target e.g. refineries or power plants with SRBMs. Will it respond with nukes? Personally I do not think so. What other options does India have to respond to cause equivalent damage? All of China's equivalent high value targets are beyond the reach of Indian conventional strike capability.

I am not saying that this is all that China will do. It could launch a border attack on multiple fronts and couple that with an SRBM attack on Indian infrastructure at the same time. The thrust of my earlier post was that China has emerged as the primary threat to India and the armed forces need the tools to be able to handle this new threat. Equipment suitable to handle border wars, which India is very capable of handling, is but one part of the overall toolkit required.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 02 Jul 2020 10:01

ldev wrote:
Rs_singh wrote:Idev,

I agree broadly with your post. However, I feel a certain nuance is lost in it.

For a border conflict, which is most likely to happen, there are plenty of counter force options available to IA/IAF/IN in theatre of ops. We are good for about plus or minus 500K. What I suspect you’re worried about is a counter value strike against own population centers. If that were to happen it would no longer be a border conflict and the Big Boys come into play, which again have enough range to for a counter value hit, far beyond nominal IRBM range. I find this scenario least likely to happen because it threatens the very existence of the CCP.

I do not even want to guess what the Indian response will be if the PLA Rocket Forces target e.g. refineries or power plants with SRBMs. Will it respond with nukes? Personally I do not think so. What other options does India have to respond to cause equivalent damage? All of China's equivalent high value targets are beyond the reach of Indian conventional strike capability.

I am not saying that this is all that China will do. It could launch a border attack on multiple fronts and couple that with an SRBM attack on Indian infrastructure at the same time.


Idev,

Any BM launch at a value target like refineries, power plants. Etc. will invite a disproportional counter value response. The BM at launch will be detected by our EW systems and by declared policy invite a massive response. The defender, I.e, India, in this hypothetical scenario, does not know what warhead that BM is carrying. This is why I said, any sort of BM launches are extremely risky for either side even if armed with conventional warheads.

A better question would be, what if one of those shiny sugarland ALCMs finds its way to oil storage sites south of the queen of hills? This is when all talk of the Vikas elements, g219, et all become relevant. I won’t expand further on this.

China was always the primary threat. Our friends to the west were never a threat, ever. Those caught in the western gaze are fools. At risk of catching shit on this forum, I’ll go on to say, what our friends in the west are to us, we are to our “bhais in the East”. Myopic, dysfunctional, a nuisance. 2014 changed a lot of that, but we are only. 6yrs into it and already you see adverse and imperiling behavior
Last edited by Rs_singh on 02 Jul 2020 10:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 02 Jul 2020 10:03

Idev Saar, you cheat! You edit your post by the time I post mine and force me edit mine. You’ve got me in the constant reaction mode having overwhelmed my OODA loop. Seems a lot like China India equation. :D

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 02 Jul 2020 10:16

Rs_singh wrote:Idev,

Any BM launch at a value target like refineries, power plants. Etc. will invite a disproportional counter value response. The BM at launch will be detected by our EW systems and by declared policy invite a massive response. The defender, I.e, India, in this hypothetical scenario, does not know what warhead that BM is carrying. This is why I said, any sort of BM launches are extremely risky for either side even if armed with conventional warheads.

The thousands of SRBMs that the PLA Rocket Forces have massed opposite the Taiwan Straits are meant to overwhelm Taiwan in the event of a Chinese amphibious assault on the island. Those are conventional BMs. For your hypothetical to work, India has to have conveyed to China that any BM launch detected whether SRBM or IRBM will be treated by India as carrying a nuke warhead and India will launch on warning. That has to be an explicit warning given and received loud and clear otherwise it will not work. Has India conveyed this warning? Also India has to have mated and ready to launch missiles.

A better question would be, what if one of those shiny sugarland ALCMs finds its way to oil storage sites south of the queen of hills? This is when all talk of the Vikas elements, g219, et all become relevant. I won’t expand further on this.

You lost me here.

China was always the primary threat. Our friends to the west were never a threat, ever. Those caught in the western gaze are fools. At risk of catching shit on this forum, I’ll go on to say, what our friends in the west are to us, we are to our “bhais in the East”. Myopic, dysfunctional, a nuisance. 2014 changed a lot of that, but we are only. 6yrs into it and already you see adverse and imperiling behavior

I don't know about that. Before this crisis broke, 3 of the 5 to be delivered S400 systems were planned to be deployed facing Pakistan and 2 facing China. That to me indicates that the IAF regarded the PAF as a bigger threat than the PLAAF at least 2 months ago. I do not know if that assessment has changed in the last 60 days.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 02 Jul 2020 10:25

ldev wrote:
Rs_singh wrote:Idev,
The thousands of SRBMs that the PLA Rocket Forces have massed opposite the Taiwan Straits are meant to overwhelm Taiwan in the event of a Chinese amphibious assault on the island. Those are conventional BMs. For your hypothetical to work, India has to have conveyed to China that any BM launch detected whether SRBM or IRBM will be treated by India as carrying a nuke warhead and India will launch on warning. That has to be an explicit warning given and received loud and clear otherwise it will not work. Has India conveyed this warning? Also India has to have mated and ready to launch missiles.
I don't know about that. Before this crisis broke, 3 of the 5 to be delivered S400 systems were planned to be deployed facing Pakistan and 2 facing China. That to me indicates that the IAF regarded the PAF as a bigger threat than the PLAAF at least 2 months ago. I do not know if that assessment has changed in the last 60 days.


Well Taiwan is a non nuclear state. CCP has a stated policy of no first use. You can assume BM launches to be conventional. The populations in Taiwan is culturally Chinese, so to speak. They don’t have any advantage in permanently making that spot inhabitable.

With us, it’s a different scenario. Both nuclear states. The gamble for either side is to launch a BM with a conventional warhead hoping the enemy also believes the same, extremely low probability, unlikely to happen, besides it detracts from their assumed end state.

About the s400, deployment scenarios for theatre weapons are TS. I wouldn’t assume what you read in the news to be true. On the off chance it is, the less said the better. We don’t even need 1 s400 against the threat to the west. They neither have the strength not the will or the ability to conduct deep counter value strikes. :oops:

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SSridhar » 02 Jul 2020 10:28

S-400s are mobile and their positioning does not convey who a bigger threat is over a longer period of time, because the positioning is tactical. It has always been clear to the Indian establishment that China was the biggest threat; that was our justification too for 1998.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby VikramS » 02 Jul 2020 10:31

ldev wrote:The thousands of SRBMs that the PLA Rocket Forces have massed opposite the Taiwan Straits are meant to overwhelm Taiwan in the event of a Chinese amphibious assault on the island. Those are conventional BMs. For your hypothetical to work, India has to have conveyed to China that any BM launch detected whether SRBM or IRBM will be treated by India as carrying a nuke warhead and India will launch on warning. That has to be an explicit warning given and received loud and clear otherwise it will not work. Has India conveyed this warning? Also India has to have mated and ready to launch missiles.


Absolutely must do. There are a lot of ways to fight the war. With the Chinese posturing is important.


Rs_singh wrote:


Sir: I think the F35 thng can be done. Of course there are a 100 hurdles to cross. But purely from a systems perspective assuming you have cooperative OEMs, it is feasible. I am sure there are more capable people who can think of even better ways.

ks_sachin wrote:


With due regards sir, I think our exchange exemplified how the desi attitude can be self-defeating.

I gave you an overview of what a quick "jerry-rigged" integration for a very specific purpose could look like. Maybe what I thought of will not wok; but once you start getting creative you will come up with other ideas.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby williams » 02 Jul 2020 10:33

Do we know how many conventional SRBMS Chinese have and what is their accuracy? There is a lot of numbers floating around. If their intent is to create massive damage and if they are on the verge of gaining major territory we can use anything we want to avoid it.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 02 Jul 2020 10:36

VikramS,

NOPE!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 02 Jul 2020 10:37

Rs_singh wrote:
Well Taiwan is a non nuclear state. CCP has a stated policy of no first use. You can assume BM launches to be conventional. The populations in Taiwan is culturally Chinese, so to speak. They don’t have any advantage in permanently making that spot inhabitable.

With us, it’s a different scenario. Both nuclear states. The gamble for either side is to launch a BM with a conventional warhead hoping the enemy also believes the same, extremely low probability, unlikely to happen, besides it detracts from their assumed end state.

About the s400, deployment scenarios for theatre weapons are TS. I wouldn’t assume what you read in the news to be true. On the off chance it is, the less said the better. We don’t even need 1 s400 against the threat to the west. They neither have the strength not the will or the ability to conduct deep counter value strikes. :oops:


A lot of assumptions here:

1. That India has a robust launch on warning system. Because if there is no launch before detonation and the detonation turns out to be conventional then the entire retaliatory sequence is null and void and if India then decides not to launch then the deterrence for BM attacks on high value targets is no longer effective. Basically this is a very very finely balanced pivot. It could go either way.

2. That China has not gamed the Indian response and that China does not have a functioning ABM system to handle limited incoming BMs. They did conduct an ABM test way back in 2009-10. They would have a pretty good handle on the Indian launch capability and numbers.

I think you will have a pretty good idea of the number of Indian launchers that can strike the Chinese heartland and vice versa. Those numbers are not pretty. Are they a good enough deterrent? And are they a good enough deterrent with Chinese ABM capability?

Ultimately it is much safer and cleaner to have a long range conventional strike capability IMO.
Last edited by ldev on 02 Jul 2020 10:40, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby k prasad » 02 Jul 2020 10:40

This entire discussion about escalation, LBGs, Naval ops, etc etc.... brings to mind an old episode of Yes, Minister, which, for all its humour, still provides an excellent example of the conundrum we face in dealing with right now. The salami-creep tactics are precisely what China is doing, so any talk of escalation is a difficult one.

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2n916d

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 02 Jul 2020 10:44

I will not answer 1.

2. All these scenarios come into play at a total war scenario. We are far from it. We are not even into a declared border skirmish yet. I told you before, counter value strikes against a nuclear adversary will invite disproportionate response as stated in our nuclear policy. The same policy does not specify what kind of response.

Long range trike capability, I couldn’t agree more. There was a long and arduous battle fought with babudom who wanted India to cap range below 100km since all targets are to the west and simultaneously declare NFU policy rendering us incapable and unable to respond with a second strike.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Philip » 02 Jul 2020 11:11

Gents,I urge you to re-read the VAYU 2019 issue no.V,which has a wealth of info on the MKI by AM Masand (retd.) and a feature on the entire range of AAMs in service,planned,in the pipeline,along with comparisons of those used by our two enemies.He also mentions maintenance protocols to reduce flight inspection time before sorties and extend the aircraft's lifespan.

For those advocating a JSF buy,we had for a few years a separate td. on the subject.It is the most complex aircraft flying today,a software heavy bird which is still being refined even as it enters initial service. It will take at least a couple of years of intense training of pilots,technicians,weapons testing,etc.,then determining its place in the air power doctrine of the IAF. Deliveries will go to the US and its allies first,to those who have invested in the project,manufacturing components,etc. Even if approved today, a min. of 3 years before the first birds wing their way here.Look at Rafale deal,time taken for deliveris,the first few just arriving now.

What the IAF require in the short and immediate timeframe are "extras" of numbers in service and spares,support,etc. to add without new induction protocls as would bre done with a new bird. to This why the IAF have asked for dxtra MIG-29s readily available and extra MKIs. Leasing of a few sqds. of these types plus French Rafales, would hugely add to the capabilityright now.

We are apparently adding a doz.small fast interceptor boats at Pangong Tso to match the fast boats operated by the Chins.We need superior watercraft. Larger boats are reqd.Our MI-26s would be able to transport any fast craft the size of a Chinook! These small boats should be armed with an auto cannon,RPG/ ATGM missiles which will be able to destroy any fast craft plus MBTs ashore.IGLA MANPADS are apparently on order already from Ru. These could be mounted or shoulder fired aboard the fast craft for air defence from helos and aircraft. Some ATGMs have a range of upto 5 km, more than the range of an MBT 125mm main gun is about 4km.The Chin light tanks in the mountains use a 100/105 mm gun.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sonugn » 02 Jul 2020 11:14

Away from sight, how China developed key infrastructure along Arunachal Pradesh
Scrutiny of open-source satellite images from Google Earth and other platforms show that China has been surreptitiously strengthening its infrastructure in and around Nyingchi, a military town in the Tibet region where it has stationed two large combined arms brigades.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 02 Jul 2020 11:31

Manish_Sharma wrote:d.) Artillery: Here we have imported M777 (145) + Bofors + Dhanush (114 ??) COMPARED to us they must be far ahead of us with better infrastructure they can bring heavy artillery through Railway and Roads, compared to us having to airlift limited amount of artillery that too 'Gold Plated M777'

Please see posts by Deans and a few others on this topic: their artillery is mostly plains artillery and not suited for high angles needed in mountain warfare. While we don't have an overwhelming advantage as the number of M777s are limited, our regular artillery can still use our reverse slopes to be able to fire at higher angles. Advantages of holding heights. Their advantage due to this factor would be limited to the few places where they hold heights, but not at places like Depsang and Galwan.


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