India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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Cain Marko
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Cain Marko » 04 Jul 2020 11:48

dinesh_kimar wrote:From ldev's posts above, asking about a 1000 km range solution, I can't believe our learned gurus are talking about a supposed long range brahmos or Shaurya.

Have all forgotten the single stage Agni -1, which DRDO identified, tested and productionised for just such a gap of between 700 to 1000+ km ?

It has been inducted in forces for a while now.

Another solution is the submarine launched K-15 /B-05 which is again inducted, and can reach this range. It is cannisterised system, land launch is possible.

Both the above options are easier to produce,being single stage, and are indigenous solutions, which reduce foreign interference, critical in the present situation.

Also, there are American sources on the internet which say that existing Agni 3 can reach Shanghai (3300 km) when launched from Assam, part of OSINT.

Learned gurus know that Beijing is much closer than Shanghai.

BMs are way higher up in the escalation ladder and hence the fire should be kept on the burner until needed. Fire blooms are different petals altogether.

Below that rung we have shaurya, quasi ballistic trajectory and still below is the Brahmos. These will be used before fire petals bloom.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KLNMurthy » 04 Jul 2020 11:56

Pratyush wrote:With claim on Vladivostok, eleven has just poked the bear.

Enemy to the East,
Enemy to the south.
Enemy to the west.

Now

Enemy to the North.

The one word for this is called being surrounded.

Can the PRC really be that stupid???

Or they think that they will succeed where Nazi Germany failed in fighting both the USA and USSR, and defeating both in the same war.

Vladivostok? When was this? Surely not even the Cheenis...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rpartha » 04 Jul 2020 12:00

KLNMurthy wrote:
darshan wrote:The main difference between Modi and kukarmi nehru is that while nehru would have made brave soldiers touch his feet, Modi would not think twice before bowing down and touching brave soldiers feet that are defending the motherland.

I think this kind of endless obsession with Nehru is pointless and unhealthy. At least on this forum, no one needs to be convinced that Nehru was an inadequate leader in many ways and we are fortunate to have Modi today.

I am sure Modi’s goals don’t include wasting his mental energy trying to prove that he is better than Nehru who has been dead and gone for a longer time than most brfites have been alive. India’s challenges are serious; we should take our lead from Modi and cultivate the mental discipline and focus to avoid this kind of mental and emotional sidetracking.

Thank you.


I agree... The failed policy of Nehru should be used only for reference and analysis - not per se should be used to attack him (not that I am against it but we can be more useful). How do we move forward from here? That should be the question...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rpartha » 04 Jul 2020 12:02

Has this been posted before? Pls ignore if already posted as I couldnt find a link for this in earlier posts... sounds like Hans are trying to come down from their high horse or could be a tactic?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/indianexpr ... 9118/lite/

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KLNMurthy » 04 Jul 2020 12:05

mukkan wrote:I believe more the GOI make noise of the border situation, more China will be happy. This could be China's effort to scare any investment coming to India to move manufacturing from China. If India is also perceived to be unstable, the golden opportunity India got to grab some of the manufacturing from China will be lost. All those will go to far east countries.

Troll alert.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 04 Jul 2020 12:06

From 2018 on exercise Gagan Shakti, just leaving it here for those with dhoti shibbers.
The Indian Air Force has just conducted a massive war drill. In sheer scope and scale this matches the legendary military manoeuvres like Brasstacks (1987) and Op Parakram (2001-02). It was a massive exercise and involved over 1150 aircraft that generated a blistering rate of 11,000 sorties in 13 days. Some 1400 officers and 14,000 men were pulled out of training establishments to participate in this gigantic exercise.

In the intense Bangladesh war of 1971, the IAF had generated a sortie rate of 500 per day and some 7000 sorties overall in 14 days in both theatres. In just the first three days of this exercise the IAF notched up 5000 sorties and launched 11,000 sorties overall (including 9000 by its fighter aircrafts alone) in 13 days. The Chinese media was awed and commented that only the US Air Force was hitherto capable of generating such massive sortie rates....

Exercise Gagan Shakti was a highly professional and well thought out war drill. Its aim was to validate our war plans and streamline SOPs and procedures. It played out the worst case scenario of a two-front war. In Phase One, the western front against Pakistan was activated. In just 72 hours (three days ) the IAF generated an incredible 5000 fighter sorties. This was twice the number of sorties the Pakistani Air force can generate and would have sufficed to decimate that Air Force. The IAF also undertook maritime ops in the Arabian sea and IOR that were vectored by the Navy’s Boeing MR aircraft.

In one such operation Su- 30 aircraft flew an incredible 4000 km non-stop with the help of midair refueling. It also launched special heliborne operations and the paradrop of a battalion group. Having dealt with Pakistan the IAF switched around to face the Chinese front. It took just 48 hours to switch resources to the north and east by using its heavy lifter aircraft like C-17s and IL-76s, rail and smaller aircraft and civil air line resources. {Now Imagine just hitting the Chinese in a single front war}

To avoid the Chinese missile saturation attacks on known airfields, the IAF deliberately operated from scattered satellite airfields and ALGs. Inter-valley transfer of troops and resources was practised and all conceivable scenarios played out. Mass casualty evacuation drills were also rehearsed to cater for the contingency of even a nuclear strike.A SU-30 simulated a Bramhos cruise missile attack over The Malacca straits.

So far, the SU-30s had been operating on a 50 per cent serviceability rate. These glitches have been fully ironed out and a serviceability rate of 80 per cent plus has been achieved with massive help from the PSUs like HAL, BDL , DRDO etc. The SU-30s, the Mirages, Jaguars, the Mig- 21s, Mig- 29s, the Hawks and even the indigenous LCA were pushed to the limits and managed to generate an incredible rate of six sorties per day for each aircraft. With the radars and air guided weapons an incredible serviceability rate of 97 per cent was achieved. Incidentally, this included some legacy systems that were over 40 years old. Combat Support elements like the Airborne Early Warning Aircraft and air-to-air refuellers put in a stellar performance and achieved a tremendous combat multiplier effect.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 04 Jul 2020 12:14

fanne wrote:TSP has 2 div worth of army in Balistan (not including Giligit). We perhaps need force to stop them. What could be their axis of advance if they want to do a tango with chinese. Going through high mountains through saltoro/siachin is impossible. What could be other routes? Maybe force is needed to stop that possibility.

Along the Shyok river: Turtok-Thoise axis. But I'd tell them good luck with that - they'll still need to deal with Diskit, followed by the long arduous route via Sasoma - Saser La - Murgo - Depsang La - <wherever the heck the PLA stages from>, while dealing with entrenched own troops. So at best, they can mount a shallow probe toward Turtok.

Other options:
1. Along the Indus to Batalik
2. Shingo river to Kargil.

Both non-starters, having already tried in '99.

But if they want to commit suicide, all of the above routes are well developed.

Of course, they could hike along the Shaskgam and Yarkhand valleys and join up north of the Karakoram - to what end, I don't know. But that's the only feasible way for them. But note that the much vaunted Chinese with all their civil engineering might still haven't built a road via this route, so even that feasibility is quite difficult in reality.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby arshyam » 04 Jul 2020 12:19

KLNMurthy wrote:Vladivostok? When was this? Surely not even the Cheenis...

This was posted a few pages ago:

Now, Russia faces China's ire over Vladivostok founding day celebrations - WION

Shen Shiwei 沈诗伟 @shen_shiwei
This “tweet” of #Russian embassy to #China isn’t so welcome on Weibo
“The history of Vladivostok (literally 'Ruler of the East') is from 1860 when Russia built a military harbor.” But the city was Haishenwai as Chinese land, before Russia annexed it via unequal Treaty of Beijing.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby YashG » 04 Jul 2020 12:22

arshyam wrote:
fanne wrote:TSP has 2 div worth of army in Balistan (not including Giligit). We perhaps need force to stop them. What could be their axis of advance if they want to do a tango with chinese. Going through high mountains through saltoro/siachin is impossible. What could be other routes? Maybe force is needed to stop that possibility.

Along the Shyok river: Turtok-Thoise axis. But I'd tell them good luck with that - they'll still need to deal with Diskit, followed by the long arduous route via Sasoma - Saser La - Murgo - Depsang La - <wherever the heck the PLA stages from>, while dealing with entrenched own troops. So at best, they can mount a shallow probe toward Turtok.

Other options:
1. Along the Indus to Batalik
2. Shingo river to Kargil.

Both non-starters, having already tried in '99.

But if they want to commit suicide, all of the above routes are well developed.

Of course, they could hike along the Shaskgam and Yarkhand valleys and join up north of the Karakoram - to what end, I don't know. But that's the only feasible way for them. But note that the much vaunted Chinese with all their civil engineering might still haven't built a road via this route, so even that feasibility is quite difficult in reality.


Thank you. Insightful. More of this!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 04 Jul 2020 13:06

Any talk of the Chinese smoking the peace pipe or saving face is premature.

Let them withdraw beyond finger 8 and then we can discuss. As of yesterdin, it was being pointed by OSINT folks that permanent structures have started appearing between F4-8.

Btw, the baki move to induct additional forces into GB might be defensive too. India, having amassed so much troops, it will be easy to divert them for a campaign into GB IFFFF and when the LAC stabilizes.
Last edited by pankajs on 04 Jul 2020 13:14, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 04 Jul 2020 13:13

We must act as if we believe them but not believe them, no need to be honest in talks. Media should keep the public expecting a Chinese attack.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Cain Marko » 04 Jul 2020 13:37

pankajs wrote:Any talk of the Chinese smoking the peace pipe or saving face is premature.

Let them withdraw beyond finger 8 and then we can discuss. As of yesterdin, it was being pointed by OSINT folks that permanent structures have started appearing between F4-8.

Btw, the baki move to induct additional forces into GB might be defensive too. India, having amassed so much troops, it will be easy to divert them for a campaign into GB IFFFF and when the LAC stabilizes.

What if India just maintains the current status on LAC and goes full throttle on GB? Following objectives:
1. Permanently Control or disrupt Pok terror infrastructure
2. Ditto with cpec.

How crucial is it for desh to get China totally out of finger 4-8 area? Compared to say, getting above objectives accomplished.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Pratyush » 04 Jul 2020 13:48

pushkar.bhat wrote:
For Operation Falcon, Maj Gen Jimmy asked for mules but Army chief Sundarji gave helicopters

Let me say that we did use the FH77 to good effect. BTW they do find mention in the article.



Read this article, it only talks about the efforts made by the forces to prepare for an offensive, if the PLA, continued with its activities. But the offensive itself not taking place due to the PLA moving back from its positions.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SSridhar » 04 Jul 2020 14:08

mukkan wrote:I believe more the GOI make noise of the border situation, more China will be happy. This could be China's effort to scare any investment coming to India to move manufacturing from China. If India is also perceived to be unstable, the golden opportunity India got to grab some of the manufacturing from China will be lost. All those will go to far east countries.

mukkan, so, what are you suggesting as a solution? Either you suggest something quickly or you will be out.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 04 Jul 2020 14:10

Pratyush wrote:
pushkar.bhat wrote:
For Operation Falcon, Maj Gen Jimmy asked for mules but Army chief Sundarji gave helicopters

Let me say that we did use the FH77 to good effect. BTW they do find mention in the article.



Read this article, it only talks about the efforts made by the forces to prepare for an offensive, if the PLA, continued with its activities. But the offensive itself not taking place due to the PLA moving back from its positions.


That was when CCP had full control of the media, today news will go from Twitter to Weibo, it not be good for Xi's image. BTW some of posts in Tawang sector are North of the google demarcated Border.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 04 Jul 2020 14:42

Cain Marko wrote:
pankajs wrote:Any talk of the Chinese smoking the peace pipe or saving face is premature.

Let them withdraw beyond finger 8 and then we can discuss. As of yesterdin, it was being pointed by OSINT folks that permanent structures have started appearing between F4-8.

Btw, the baki move to induct additional forces into GB might be defensive too. India, having amassed so much troops, it will be easy to divert them for a campaign into GB IFFFF and when the LAC stabilizes.

What if India just maintains the current status on LAC and goes full throttle on GB? Following objectives:
1. Permanently Control or disrupt Pok terror infrastructure
2. Ditto with cpec.

How crucial is it for desh to get China totally out of finger 4-8 area? Compared to say, getting above objectives accomplished.
Note, I used the word "stabilizes" instead of "cleared" or some such words that imply definitive outcome. LAC could "stabilizes" around the current positions or around pre-April positions or a new position. Who knows?

F4-8 is not even tactical blow where as GB would be strategic blow to China, Bakistan and China/Bakistan co-operation. I would gladly trade F4-8 for complete control of GB and thus cutting off the Land/Air corridor between China and Bakistan but more importantly between China and its likely IOR hub of Gwadar.

It would also allows us direct access, by land and air, to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Also allow India to dominate Bakistan from its north and in the adjoining areas of PoK and NWFP where most of the terror training camps are located plus the terror camps in Afghanistan.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 04 Jul 2020 14:44

pushkar.bhat wrote:
nam wrote:The last time bullet fired were not 45 years before.. It was in 1987. No wonder it took 9 years to resolve.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/army-officer-scales-peak-stumbles-across-outpost-named-after-her-dad/articleshow/63225642.cms


Let me only say that in 1987 at Sumdorong Chu Valley there was not just a infantry attack but a Artillery duel that lasted 4 days and the attack was so vicious that the PLA withdrew about 25 Km and did not return to the area for many years. Gen Krishnaswamy Sundarji is a Chief that both the PA and the PLA wished we never had.


Are you sure you are not mixing it up with 1967 ?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 04 Jul 2020 15:18

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 9558711301
The Wolfpack @TheWolfpackIN

Andaman and Nicobar: Force accretion and military infrastructure development at the A&N Islands have gained a sense of urgency. Runways of INS Baaz and INS Kohassa to be extended to 10,000ft to support all kinds of aircraft. Air defence enclave also to be created at Kamorta island
Chinese are pro-active in building infra while we are reactive!

I would suggest GOI conduct a Malabar exercise around A&N command at the earliest.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby srin » 04 Jul 2020 16:13

I'm quite surprised to hear talk of taking GB. I see multiple problems with that.

First is "causus belli". It is important to have our own countrymen support the military whole heartedly. It is important for international community to help us - with intel, with spares and so on. We don't have causus belli to take over GB *right now* (wait for a few months and the Bakis will offer it one way or the other by doing their usual stupid). We have the causus belli to hurt China and get the LAC straightened out in our favor.

Second, a two-front war is not in our interest. I'm sure we're ready for it - and it may involve striking one front while keeping the other deadlocked. But when things are really hot with China, why do we want to open another front ?
Now, of course, it is possible for Bakis to try to fish in troubled waters by trying some foolishness themselves. However, the number of Indian forces required to defend and stop any TSP offensive is going to much less compared to the number of forces that need to take over GB.

So - focus on giving the Chinese a bloody face and take them out of the equation. Then when inevitably TSP does a terrorist attack, use the opportunity to build a causus belli and then look at GB. No two front war - keep one front quiet.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 04 Jul 2020 16:23

I don't think the time for action has arrived yet @ Pangang Tso. Modi's speech may have been to convey restlessness/dissatisfaction with Chinese stalling and push them to speed things up.

All this is mere speculation till somethings moves on the LAC.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pushkar.bhat » 04 Jul 2020 16:26

nam wrote:
pushkar.bhat wrote:
Let me only say that in 1987 at Sumdorong Chu Valley there was not just a infantry attack but a Artillery duel that lasted 4 days and the attack was so vicious that the PLA withdrew about 25 Km and did not return to the area for many years. Gen Krishnaswamy Sundarji is a Chief that both the PA and the PLA wished we never had.


Are you sure you are not mixing it up with 1967 ?


Absolutely not. 1987 Falcon happened. May be after the current crisis is over we need to open up about it.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 04 Jul 2020 17:54

Documentary on 62 war. Something I didn't realize was that China's conflict with us was the last straw of Soviet China split!

Last edited by nam on 04 Jul 2020 18:20, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 04 Jul 2020 17:56

pushkar.bhat wrote:
Absolutely not. 1987 Falcon happened. May be after the current crisis is over we need to open up about it.


I wonder if Brasstack was meant to remove 1 out of the 2 front war. Especially in LoC at Ladakh.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nishant.gupta » 04 Jul 2020 18:23

I dont think its shared here yet. Nice article with good infographics also.

https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/world/article/3091480/China-India-border-dispute/index.html

The Sino-India war of 1962 resulted in China redrawing the border as the Line of Actual Control in its own favour, while the second Sino-India war of 1967 saw India push China back, further obfuscating the location of the Himalayan border.


Never heard any media agency describe '67 as a war not to mention one where India pushed back China.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Y I Patel » 04 Jul 2020 18:26

Anoop wrote:
What this does is put the onus squarely on the PLA to escalate, if it wants to. He has signaled to them that he is confident of handling any internal political dissent about the incursions in Fingers 4-8 and he is under no pressure to fire the first shot. Essentially telling Xi Jinping, "Your move, chief. Let's see what you got". This is taking the Chinese playbook and turning it on its head similar to what they had done with their unilateral withdrawal in 1962 after declaring victory, knowing that further conflict does not suit them.

He visited after taking concrete actions like banning the Chinese apps, completing or continuing the construction of bridges and roads in the region, disallowing them from 4G extension and from infrastructure projects. These are proof he can take to the frontline soldiers that the Govt and the public sentiment is behind them.



Very perceptive post Anoop

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby hanumadu » 04 Jul 2020 18:38

mukkan wrote:I believe more the GOI make noise of the border situation, more China will be happy. This could be China's effort to scare any investment coming to India to move manufacturing from China. If India is also perceived to be unstable, the golden opportunity India got to grab some of the manufacturing from China will be lost. All those will go to far east countries.


Chinese strategy could be to prolong the tensions till the corona virus is over and things are back to normal in the hope people will forget it, the angst against it dies, people forget about the supply chain dependence on china and the calls to boycott china. Profits and greed take precedence once again and china can continue to be the factory of the world.

But I don't think things will return to as they were before.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Bart S » 04 Jul 2020 18:42

rpartha wrote:Has this been posted before? Pls ignore if already posted as I couldnt find a link for this in earlier posts... sounds like Hans are trying to come down from their high horse or could be a tactic?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/indianexpr ... 9118/lite/


The expert analysis is that it is the exact opposite of your conclusion. The term 'strategic miscalculation' is rarely used by PRC and usually used before an attack. Whether it is a calculated bluff remains to be seen, but it wasn't conciliatory language.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Bart S » 04 Jul 2020 18:47

Cain Marko wrote:
pankajs wrote:Any talk of the Chinese smoking the peace pipe or saving face is premature.

Let them withdraw beyond finger 8 and then we can discuss. As of yesterdin, it was being pointed by OSINT folks that permanent structures have started appearing between F4-8.

Btw, the baki move to induct additional forces into GB might be defensive too. India, having amassed so much troops, it will be easy to divert them for a campaign into GB IFFFF and when the LAC stabilizes.

What if India just maintains the current status on LAC and goes full throttle on GB? Following objectives:
1. Permanently Control or disrupt Pok terror infrastructure
2. Ditto with cpec.

How crucial is it for desh to get China totally out of finger 4-8 area? Compared to say, getting above objectives accomplished.


Forget Pakistan for a moment. The more critical thing will be to stay the course on delinking from and punishing China on all areas (borders/military is just one of half a dozen areas where we must fight them). Do that, and build up supply chain, local industry and strategic agreements with Western and Quad nations and then we will be much better placed to deal with Pakistan, and rest assured that Pakistan will give us casus belli at some point to do so. The key thing is not that we happen to have a major deployment currently, but that we build the roads and infrastructure in peace time to do a rapid deployment when needed.

If you look at the two goals that you listed as well, 1 is definitely something that we need, but we can probably need to finish stabilizing our side first.

For CPEC is it really worth disrupting it? The Chinese are screwing the Pakis over and it is already leading to tensions both between the Chinese and the Pakis and internally between Pakis, not to mention economic collapse. We can and shout cut off GB but we can do that at the time and place of our choosing.

Better to let POK and Pak in general fester for some more time till the time is ripe. People there are already slowly moving to a point where they would revolt, due to mismanagement of COVID and the tall claims of the Paki military and jihadis falling flat after Aug 5.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rajpa » 04 Jul 2020 19:49

piskology hat on...

Generally speaking, Chinese shopkeepers are known to fight with their customers. It is the attitude that says I am providing the thing that you need and you should be eternally grateful to me for that. It is the same with the Chinese leadership as well. This attitude is an offshoot of the socialist/communist model where the benevolent state is bestowing upon the needy citizens a favor by providing them the goods they need, want, desire. (See the smug self-appreciative look on Eleven Dingaling's face to understand this clearly.)

After having become the manufacturing hub of the world, Chin feels that they are doing the world a favor through their great Communist system, except that it is the global free market economy that paid them for their goods and the customers will move to other vendors if they continue to disgruntle them.

The world is just learning its lesson having made a manufacturing monopoly out of China. Corrective actions will be taken and China will be put in its place.

Fact of the matter is that communism is irrelevant outside of their country and they cannot continue to have a mercantilist policy with other nations while pretending to be communist. That is a contradiction in terms.

Internally as well, when the shit hits the fan because of global economic reaction, CCP centralised control will be unable to handle the socioeconomic chaos that will follow and their current system will collapse.

CCP's days are numbered for sure.

I am predicting that Li Keqiang will oust Xi and offer a mea culpa and a perestroika with Chinese characteristics. That will be the beginning of the end of the CCP.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby prasan » 04 Jul 2020 20:21


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Dileep » 04 Jul 2020 20:33

What would be our objective when we go kinetic with SHA?

To answer this, we need to know what was agreed by us in 1962 ceasefire. Our objective will not be beyond what we formally agreed. Our nature prevents us from going beyond. Dharma does that to us onlee.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Anoop » 04 Jul 2020 20:53

Thank you, YIP. Please provide some more pointers on the geography and possible axes of attack as you had done a few pages before. They were very useful for me to start looking at the terrain more closely.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 04 Jul 2020 20:55

In 2 cents, first objective would be to attack Demchok area and Spangur, move south from Dungti and try and cut of G219 near Ngari, then if possible logistics permitting try and break out from the Denspang plains moving towards G219, try and knock out Rutog logistic chain with artillery and airstrikes.

The sit for peace talks.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 04 Jul 2020 21:59

Aditya_V wrote:In 2 cents, first objective would be to attack Demchok area and Spangur, move south from Dungti and try and cut of G219 near Ngari, then if possible logistics permitting try and break out from the Denspang plains moving towards G219, try and knock out Rutog logistic chain with artillery and airstrikes.

The sit for peace talks.


I was just wondering how the Chinese are going to provide air defence (much less air support) to areas in south Ladakh and adjoining HP and UK. Their one base in Ngari will be wholly inadequate (extremely high altitude, poor weather, lack of infrastructure). Support from Hotan, Kashgar will be difficult because of distance and the fact they will have to overcome CAP from Leh and J&K airbases. Beyond that they will be completely reliant on SAMs. And against this we can throw every fighter from bases in Punjab, Haryana, UP - which is probably at least 1/4 of our tier 1 airbases. Using the Gagan Shakti stats as baseline we could generate 1000+ sorties in first 3 days, given the number of PLA troops based there (which is not really that many) plus if we are able to interdict any additional support or re-enforcements, I don't see how they will be able to hold off an offensive. We could even be bold and conduct air assaults across HP/UK axis (like here) - no enemy air support plus thinly deployed ground forces should make it a perfect candidate no? Of course these are my armchair views onlyee :wink:

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 04 Jul 2020 22:06

Dileep wrote:What would be our objective when we go kinetic with SHA?

To answer this, we need to know what was agreed by us in 1962 ceasefire. Our objective will not be beyond what we formally agreed. Our nature prevents us from going beyond. Dharma does that to us onlee.


This is the problem we are facing. The moment we take military action, we cannot be seen changing the status quo. example we cannot push the PLA back to Sirijap. It also undermines our claim over Aksia Chin.
I guess this is the reason GoI has not clearly announced what is the "status quo" in it's official communication.

From my perspective, our objective should be to push back PLA to finger 8 "publicly", but importantly decimation of PLA forces & infra all along the LAC.

PLA will hit targets deeper on our side from day 1. So we are under no obligation to keep it very localized. There needs to be a visual demonstration of PLA defeat. That is the only way to deter them.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 04 Jul 2020 22:14

A few interesting things to note:

1. CCP using the phrase “strategic miscalculation”. Several former diplomats and servicemen have pointed to this as a sign of impending action.
2. Refusal of The Man to name Middle Kingdom explicitly. IIRC, he stopped naming our friends to the west before strikes were conducted.
3. My favorite RM used to say “bina naam liye andhra ki mirchi lagi na”.
4. “Official” IAF videos coming out from ops in Leh. (I wonder what the unofficial videos showed, who else would be operating 29s and apaches #sarcasm)
5. Sugarland taking a diplomatic, almost reconciliatory tone through GT. This is 100% bluff. Lull the En into thinking nothing is happening.
6. Our friends to the west are absolutely quiet. No kashmir, no modi, RSS yelling.
7. The 0.5 front activated , intentional and directed subversive activities to question integrity of the highest office and of the services. Sow doubt, confusion in the masses. I wish we had a thread to document these folks. Perhaps there is one, and I am unaware.
8. I don’t know why we still keep referring to this treaty or that accord. The CCP can’t wait to wipe their ass with it. According to them, all treaties signed were unequal unless they have an advantage and so all treaties are subject to renegotiation from a position of strength.

A smoke screen has been created, now I’d wait for the SHA to follow through.
RaviB, agree with your assessment, Kargil redux.
AbhiK, no BMs. Warhead ambiguity. Range is not a factor.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Dileep » 04 Jul 2020 22:23

We must distinguish between 'objective' and 'tactics'. We may take land as a tactic, but after the war, we still need to sit across a table with the chinis to make a settlement. What we demand there is the 'objective' and that is what matters.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby srin » 04 Jul 2020 22:24

I think Dileep's question is quite profound. Think beyond this current situation.

Where do we want the Indo-Tibet border to be ? Forget all the claim lines. Which is the line that will give us the most strategic advantage, is most strategically defensible for next many decades ?

If wishes were horses, I'd want to have the border in Ladakh near the Kun Lun mountains to the west, take over the valley north of KK pass and thence onto the Shaksgam valley - bordering Xinjiang, and in the south, extend the line to the *east* of Pangong all the way to Mt. Kailash.
In Sikkim sector, I want to take over the Chumbi valley.
In Arunachal Pradesh, I want the border to be much much north and east to encompass the Brahmaputra valley before the "great bend".

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby CRamS » 04 Jul 2020 22:31

Seeing how Xi Jinping betrayed ModiJi despite all the surface level Bonhomie is very similar to my experience with Chincoms in US barring some exceptions.

In general, what I found is that they may show overt friendship but under the hood they are viscous manipulators to protect their self interest. And their behavior also stems from a Paki TFTAisque feeling of superiority over us SDREs. And they do this in a way that its difficult to pin point the fraudulent nature of their behavior, and it is also cold blooded. In other words, I was not capable of doing the same kind of cold calculations towards them. And this continues until the relationship sours irrevocably and then turns ugly.

I feel this is exactly what we are seeing. While ModiJi's intention during all the bonhomie at Mallapuram or Wuhan was pure, Xi was calculating differently. Leaving aside internal attacks on ModiJi as to whether Chincoms occupied Indian territory, the fact is Chinese have built up aggressively along the LAC and encroached for sure into disputed territories. Maybe, initially, like I did towards my associations with chincoms, India did not push back on the Chincom encroachments so as to not spoil the bonhomie, but now they have amassed big time, and we are bitter.

While I still don't buy the crooklaw propaganda that Chincoms have encroached en masse on Indian territory proper (in any case his intention is malafide to attack ModiJi than Chincoms), they sure have pushed the the limits of the LAC. And more importantly signaled an acute aggressive stance quite in dissonance with the friendship on display at all the summits Xi had with ModiJi.

My own feeling is that both sides need something. Xi will not just tuck his tail between his legs and run. And ModiJi will be roasted alive if he lets the Chincom encroachments pass off as 'different perceptions on the LAC'.
Last edited by CRamS on 04 Jul 2020 23:02, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 04 Jul 2020 22:33

I do not see the Chinis agreeing to any line, unless we physically occupy it.

A 15T GDP country giving away land under it's control has never happened, nor I see it happening in the future.


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