India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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srin
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby srin » 05 Jul 2020 06:41

fanne wrote:We come full circle then don't we- Free Tibet!!
Perhaps not our fight (then whose it is? Our dharmic brothers are getting crushed), if it is because we don't have the might yet, then yes, but it is our fight. Tibet has been a buffer and better made one asap, this will then perhaps allow both China and India to rise. Else the choice is only for 1 to rise, and if that is the case, 1 has already risen. It cannot be both, and if we have to rise, sorry China has to leave Tibet.


Say, we take Tibet. The problem then becomes keeping Tibet. Imagine the number of troops all along the southern and eastern mountains to hold Tibet.
Yes, a neutral and friendly Tibet is useful as a buffer state but like we see in Nepal, it is possible for buffer states to turncoat after many decades. So, we need to take full control of Tibet and keep the supply lines flowing.
I don't see it as feasible.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby fanne » 05 Jul 2020 07:00

Tibet has a population of 3 million. 10 percent of it 3 lakh can be trained to man their border. We provide air support and perhaps man artillery and armor for them. In return we get (with their permission) a decent chunk of land that safeguard ou water interests and some land interest (like land above jk). These will not be some 100 km from the current border and safeguard it vigorously, perhaps keep some 3-4 lakh of mountain specialized soldiers. We will be the only army training at this height and we can beat the Chinese for the next many millennium. Doable you bet, but you have to uninstall your excel sheet where you have written 15 trillion economy.
I see Chinese deployment, funny it is not for war, for show of supposed strength yes but tactically very badly placed. All fingers can be cleared perhaps in half an hour in a kinetic war with almost 100% Chinese causality (and proportional loss at our exposed troops that are manning each inch to satisfy the whims of like of Raul Gandi (spelling mistake on purpose) and ajai shuklaas and the Kanwals

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 05 Jul 2020 07:39

Can we leave Tibet fantasies out , we don't have the capability today.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby srin » 05 Jul 2020 07:50

Is G219 really important for Cheen ? Why would they build a critical highway all along the border right where we can interdict it ? Why not through the plateau of Tibet ?
Xinjiang seems to have G315 also from mainland.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Anoop » 05 Jul 2020 07:51

YIP,

Thank you again for providing food for thought. Here are some of my own:

Why are those two passes (marked as Na-La Shan Kou and Dumchele La on the map) critical for the Chinese when they have a black top road passing along the Indus river valley on the West Bank of the river

https://imgur.com/6fUN8S4

and and ending at a place called Dianjaiocun that sits right across Demchok ?
https://imgur.com/a/yDbuZcI

There are several installations that look to be military (Woluo, Jiangji, Zhaxigangxiang) along this road. This road is about 20 miles and then crosses over to the Eastern bank of the Indus with an approx 100 ft span bridge that links up to to G-219 and then to Ngari.

https://imgur.com/a/pNF0CwI

The West bank of the Indus river all along the 20 mile length is a wide plateau that lends itself to tank and APC movement. This plateau then rises sharply to the West with many valleys running across it roughly SE-NW.

https://imgur.com/RXAHjx0

From the following article https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/why-the-indian-army-has-deployed-tanks-in-ladakh-that-were-seen-in-a-military-exercise-this-month

‘With tanks, we can cross the Demchok funnel (where Indus enters India) and intercept the highway in case of hostilities,’ Major General (retd) Sheru Thapliyal, former commander of the Ladakh-based 3rd Infantry Division, said in 2016.


However, given the Chinese lines of communication, any Indian armored breakout from Demchok will run the entire gauntlet of Chinese armor also. Can it be supported by attack helicopters flying through the valleys of the mountain range referred above?

Edited to provide images.
Last edited by Anoop on 05 Jul 2020 08:57, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SSridhar » 05 Jul 2020 07:54

srin, G219 is important for them because the WTC controls both Xinjiang & Tibet and if they do not have the shortest and direct logistics means that interconnects these two adjacent regions, it becomes a nightmare. The alignment of G219 is the easiest and direct.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Anoop » 05 Jul 2020 08:13

In my opinion, G219 is very difficult to interdict permanently i.e. we cannot hold on to any stretch of it (referring only to the Ladakh section). The reason is the Chinese lines of communication to G219 are interior whereas our approach is funneled through the Indus river valley. Please look at the terrain on Google Earth. If an Indian ground force is cut off after having run the gauntlet along this valley and reached the bridge, it can't be retrieved or reinforced except through this single approach.

The Chinese hold an approximately 40 mile wide, 80 mile long relatively flat plateau bounded on the South East by Mansarovar, and on other three sides by high mountain ranges. This "valley" is a bowl protected from Indian reinforcement by the mountain range and can hold a lot of troops that can form a pincer and reinforce the G219 from the S-W near a place called Menshicun.

https://imgur.com/c663CNW

This is quite apart from their main interior lines of communication from the N-E direction.

https://imgur.com/LFBreLn
We can of course try to interdict it from the air, but in the end game we wouldn't have any solid gains to show for it apart from damage to property.
Last edited by Anoop on 05 Jul 2020 09:07, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby samirdiw » 05 Jul 2020 08:32

amar_p wrote:IFF India wants to really go all out, we must go kinetic in Arunachal. If G219 is cut off there, Lhasa and AC will be impossible to hold on to.

When that happens China will quickly ditch its NFU.



60 4MT City Busters would have made sure that China sticks to its NFU and not make a sound of intimidation in this area. Unfortunately we obviously haven't gamed this scenario or else we would have had these by now.

Aditya_V wrote:Can we leave Tibet fantasies out , we don't have the capability today.


Aditya ji what is the gap in the capability that is needed?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Anoop » 05 Jul 2020 09:36

https://tinyurl.com/yc6v6md6

The Indian Army on Saturday termed as "malicious and unsubstantiated" criticism in some quarters about a medical facility in a military hospital in Leh where Prime Minister Narendra Modi interacted with the soldiers injured in the Galwan Valley clashes. In a statement, the Army said "it is unfortunate that aspersions are being cast on how our brave Armed Forces are treated. The armed forces give the best possible treatment to their personnel."

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rajpa » 05 Jul 2020 10:48

Dileep wrote:What would be our objective when we go kinetic with SHA?

To answer this, we need to know what was agreed by us in 1962 ceasefire. Our objective will not be beyond what we formally agreed. Our nature prevents us from going beyond. Dharma does that to us onlee.


Our objectives:

1. Push the Chinese back to pre April positions
2. Strongly discourage Chin from taking offensive positions against us again
3. Keep options open for taking back Aksai Chin/GB

There can be defensive or offensive tactics used to achieve these objectives.

Defensive:
Just wait it out.. diplomatic and military talks to sort out the matter as amicably as possible
Economic actions against Chin
Build global coalition against Chin

Offensive:
Limited skirmish over F4-F8, capture upto F8
Economic actions against Chin
Build global coalition against Chin

Pls feel free to add/delete as per your own analysis.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 05 Jul 2020 11:10

F4-F8 without amphibous assault is tough, more important to clear the Chinese from Spangur and in the Demchok area, they too the area only because it is flat land.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rajpa » 05 Jul 2020 11:39

Yes limited skirmish at Demchok, Spangur and F4 to F8 to drive them behind the mountains could be a good start. We would need a true triservice offensive to achieve this.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby williams » 05 Jul 2020 11:45

IMO we should not do anything that they would have gamed already. So we should not do anything in F4 or Demchok. We should choose a spot where we can go behind them and cut them off their forward deployment. Going behind Galwan valley forward positions might be a good spot. I think we have access to the southern part of Galwan valley from the North of Pangong lake. Sort of do a flanking maneuver and cut off the land supply route and position troops in the hights to interdict any supply by air. Then sit and talk to enforce pre-April status.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 05 Jul 2020 12:16

williams wrote:IMO we should not do anything that they would have gamed already. So we should not do anything in F4 or Demchok. We should choose a spot where we can go behind them and cut them off their forward deployment. Going behind Galwan valley forward positions might be a good spot. I think we have access to the southern part of Galwan valley from the North of Pangong lake. Sort of do a flanking maneuver and cut off the land supply route and position troops in the hights to interdict any supply by air. Then sit and talk to enforce pre-April status.

How do you know what they have gamed?

The thing is they know what options are open to us and we know what options are available to them.

The terrain dictates the options.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 05 Jul 2020 12:18

rajpa wrote:Yes limited skirmish at Demchok, Spangur and F4 to F8 to drive them behind the mountains could be a good start. We would need a true triservice offensive to achieve this.

What if they open something in Tawang?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 05 Jul 2020 12:31

We have to defensive in Arunachal and Sikkim Sectors also and be ready. Not only tawang, Tuting, Kibithoo, we must be ready. It all depends what kind of war Mr. Xi wants, thats why we need to build up capabilities. Longer we take better prepared we are for various scenarios including PLARF , PLAAF plans etc.

But Moonsoons will impact this sector unlike Ladakh where it affects on the CHinese side also, not only our side.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rajpa » 05 Jul 2020 12:33

ks_sachin wrote:
rajpa wrote:Yes limited skirmish at Demchok, Spangur and F4 to F8 to drive them behind the mountains could be a good start. We would need a true triservice offensive to achieve this.

What if they open something in Tawang?


That would just be another front for us to handle. Besides nothing has happened there yet and yes we must be on our full defence there to stop anything from happening.
Last edited by rajpa on 05 Jul 2020 12:34, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby williams » 05 Jul 2020 12:34

ks_sachin wrote:
williams wrote:IMO we should not do anything that they would have gamed already. So we should not do anything in F4 or Demchok. We should choose a spot where we can go behind them and cut them off their forward deployment. Going behind Galwan valley forward positions might be a good spot. I think we have access to the southern part of Galwan valley from the North of Pangong lake. Sort of do a flanking maneuver and cut off the land supply route and position troops in the hights to interdict any supply by air. Then sit and talk to enforce pre-April status.

How do you know what they have gamed?

The thing is they know what options are open to us and we know what options are available to them.

The terrain dictates the options.

They escalated in F4 and they are preparing for a skirmish in F4. All I am saying is don't do the obvious. Terrian in the LAC actually provides wide-open opportunities. We should choose the spot where they least expect and inflict maximum pain.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rajpa » 05 Jul 2020 12:35

Sometimes doing the obvious may be the least expected and possibly the best option.

(I suggest building a public toilet on the spot where they put the china map on F5 to inflict maximum pain.)

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby sanjayc » 05 Jul 2020 12:51

abhik wrote:



The build up happened due to "higher Political direction" onlee. There is no need to facilitate an agreement "between the two militaries", neither PLA not IA are rouge forces not under respective political control, the agreement need to be between the political heads. And maybe the respected diplomutt should give us insights on how we can get them to disengage via "give and take" negotiations unless we will have to do most of the giving and the chinese will do most of the taking.


This lady is a Nehruvian pacifist and Congress stooge. She keeps mouthing inanities (essentially using diplomatic jargon to recommend our submission to other countries). She was the ambassador to China who was dragged out of bed at 2am by Chinese to complain about something -- she was a walkover for foreign diplomats.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby AshishA » 05 Jul 2020 12:57

PM Modi is meeting with the President.

President of India
@rashtrapatibhvn
Prime Minister @narendramodi called on President Kovind and briefed him on the issues of national and international importance at Rashtrapati Bhavan today

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Dileep » 05 Jul 2020 13:43

abhik wrote:Added: Going by tweets of a lot of ex-forces, they are still mostly singing disengagement/deescalation (it will be a long process blah blah), I get the feeling most are not mentally ready to accept the possibility of a war with China.


Years of conditioning within a rigid frame work will do that to anyone. A few generations of our forces worked under the "don't poke the chinese" view. Maybe there is a Hanut Singh or Jimmy Singh to take an exception.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Hari Nair » 05 Jul 2020 14:06

ks_sachin wrote:This thread is sounding like it is taking our adversary a bit lightly.

All this talk of Aksai Chin or Tibet being a walkover !!!!

And speeches was bloody good but now we need systemic change to back the rhetoric...

The fact is that 6 years in the Modi's sarkar we still cannot do military acquisitions properly. Hence we are in this pickle....


Define - "Pickle", may I request?
Exactly what sort of "pickle" are we in? And the Bat Eaters, I presume are starting their picnic into Ladakh??
Its also a bit surprising that one feels the speech is just simply rhetoric...
Mil acquisitions is one part of the picture, really. In that part of 'Down Under' (where your appear to be), just check on the state of readiness of the forces and the problems therein.
It not a perfect world, 'mate'.

And the Bat Eaters may just be advised to prepare for a R-E-A-L-I-T-Y check.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rajpa » 05 Jul 2020 14:39

Dileep wrote:
abhik wrote:Added: Going by tweets of a lot of ex-forces, they are still mostly singing disengagement/deescalation (it will be a long process blah blah), I get the feeling most are not mentally ready to accept the possibility of a war with China.


Years of conditioning within a rigid frame work will do that to anyone. A few generations of our forces worked under the "don't poke the chinese" view. Maybe there is a Hanut Singh or Jimmy Singh to take an exception.


After surgical strikes and Balakot, most military folks shouldn't be surprised if the GoI picks up a kinetic option.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 05 Jul 2020 14:49

Chinese PLA’s rear defences in Ladakh’s Galwan valley face an icy challenge

Some notable bits of new information:
China’s People’s Liberation Army, which had amassed a large number of troops 5 km from the standoff points in Galwan, may need to shift around its soldiers after its rear positions on the Galwan bank have been flooded due to a sharp rise in water levels,

To the contrary, there are reports that the People’s Liberation Army was laying fibre optic cables at its locations in the Galwan valley. There is also a report with the army that the PLA is seeking to build a tunnel in the finger area of Pangong lake.

Tunnel in Pangong? Are they talking about bunkers drilled into the mountain face?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby abhik » 05 Jul 2020 14:53

rajpa wrote:
Dileep wrote:
Years of conditioning within a rigid frame work will do that to anyone. A few generations of our forces worked under the "don't poke the chinese" view. Maybe there is a Hanut Singh or Jimmy Singh to take an exception.


After surgical strikes and Balakot, most military folks shouldn't be surprised if the GoI picks up a kinetic option.

This is probably going to be 100x bigger and more difficult decision than surgical strikes and Balakot on scale. Let's see how it turns out, PM Modi met with the President today in other news.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby schinnas » 05 Jul 2020 15:12

If they have tunnelling machines, they may create all weather, middle and artillery proof ammo dumps and other storage facilities inside of the mountains to prevent tents from getting washed away in floods. They may also try tunneling into the ridge protrusion around finger 3 to enable a motorable way into our side.

Any tunnelling in our side of LAC (finger 4 to 8 is our side) should invite some Excalibur shells on those tunnel machines. This is a strict red lines we shouldn't allow Chinese to cross.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rs_singh » 05 Jul 2020 15:33

Hari sir,

We are just trying to point out the sheer lack of people on this forum without actual mil exp. jingoism comes at a cost. The purpose of this forum is to impart strategic thought but the thoughts of many here are simply fantastic, ks_sachin means well and is trying to guide this thread to realism.

When I was stuck fighting the good fight, we kicked up a lot of dirt, sure, but it was grounded in realism sir, something acutely missing here. Just my view.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 05 Jul 2020 16:16

Rs_singh wrote:Hari sir,

We are just trying to point out the sheer lack of people on this forum without actual mil exp. jingoism comes at a cost. The purpose of this forum is to impart strategic thought but the thoughts of many here are simply fantastic, ks_sachin means well and is trying to guide this thread to realism.

When I was stuck fighting the good fight, we kicked up a lot of dirt, sure, but it was grounded in realism sir, something acutely missing here. Just my view.

Thank you sir. I am one of those guilty of having no mil exp. I just have very good teachers!!
Hari Sir I am too steeped in the OG to doubt what the forces can do...
However apologies If I came across as anything but patriotic..
Modiji is a man I admire but....I am a big fan of Yes Prime Minister...There are a lot of Humphrey Appleby's in New Delhi.
Last edited by ks_sachin on 05 Jul 2020 16:50, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 05 Jul 2020 16:16

fanne wrote:TSP has 2 div worth of army in Balistan (not including Giligit). We perhaps need force to stop them. What could be their axis of advance if they want to do a tango with chinese. Going through high mountains through saltoro/siachin is impossible. What could be other routes? Maybe force is needed to stop that possibility.


Pakistan's FCNA - which roughly handles the area from Muzaffarabad, upto the Siachen Glacier, has 5 brigades. Against that, we have 28th Inf division in the Gurez area and 8th Mountain Div at Dras. That is the normal ORBAT for both sides. Any extra deployment for either side could not make much sense, as the terrain rules out any offensive operations unless there is overwhelming superiority.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 05 Jul 2020 16:23

ks_sachin wrote:
Deans wrote:
Yes, No way it can be 4 divisions. My guess would be 1 extra division with (at best) elements of a 2nd, making it between 2 and 3 divisions in
Eastern Ladakh,

There is no real estate. They would have made 3 Div conc on Demchok area with another div plugging the gap between say Pangong and above to Glacier. Or vice versa. 8 Div of XIV is tasked for glacier and surrounds.


That's actually what I had in mind. By `elements of a third division', what I looked at was an armored brigade (of IX corps), in the Demchok area, to back up our infantry, in case it comes down to mechanised warfare. I'm assuming the existing armored brigade of XIV corps would cover the Depsang plains area in the north.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 05 Jul 2020 16:32

Deans
News reports talk about a div being inducted?
Are we seeing the first deployment in anger of 17corps?
Also Demchok already had Mech Inf. Would it be illogical to expect armr already being there without an armr bde.
While depsang and Demchok are condusive to Armd / Mech forces what volume of these can the area sustain?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 05 Jul 2020 17:24

OT. Just read that Rommel's 7th Divsion broke through the Maginot Line in a night raid and continued non stop. Shooting French tanks in the dark, whose crew were quietly sleeping. By morning he was 50KM inside French territory and then he alone drove all the way back, because the German army was still on the other side of Maginot line!

I don't think we will see anything like this on LAC :D

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby rpartha » 05 Jul 2020 17:28

Pls check the below article on how interpretations of the situation by few people who inimical to govt is undermining the govt effort... like Ajaai etc... can we do something?

https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/theprint ... 519/%3famp

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Aditya_V » 05 Jul 2020 17:50

nam wrote:OT. Just read that Rommel's 7th Divsion broke through the Maginot Line in a night raid and continued non stop. Shooting French tanks in the dark, whose crew were quietly sleeping. By morning he was 50KM inside French territory and then he alone drove all the way back, because the German army was still on the other side of Maginot line!

I don't think we will see anything like this on LAC :D


No German Tank or soldier went directly across the Maginot line, they bypassed the Maginot line, did you ,mean the River Meuse?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 05 Jul 2020 17:58

Aditya_V wrote:
nam wrote:OT. Just read that Rommel's 7th Divsion broke through the Maginot Line in a night raid and continued non stop. Shooting French tanks in the dark, whose crew were quietly sleeping. By morning he was 50KM inside French territory and then he alone drove all the way back, because the German army was still on the other side of Maginot line!

I don't think we will see anything like this on LAC :D


No German Tank or soldier went directly across the Maginot line, they bypassed the Maginot line, did you ,mean the River Meuse?

The credit must go to General Heinz Guderian.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 05 Jul 2020 18:14

Aditya_V wrote:
nam wrote:OT. Just read that Rommel's 7th Divsion broke through the Maginot Line in a night raid and continued non stop. Shooting French tanks in the dark, whose crew were quietly sleeping. By morning he was 50KM inside French territory and then he alone drove all the way back, because the German army was still on the other side of Maginot line!

I don't think we will see anything like this on LAC :D


No German Tank or soldier went directly across the Maginot line, they bypassed the Maginot line, did you ,mean the River Meuse?


Rommel did. on 16th May night. He created ONE lane through the extended Maginot line defense and pushed his division through.

By morning, he had created chaos in 1 armor division and no less than 5 infantry division of the French army! All of this under order, not to advance! :D

Here is a nice video on this story. Total unreal action.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOpQSUwF45w

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 05 Jul 2020 18:22

Was Guderian under him or were they peers?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby nam » 05 Jul 2020 18:45

They were peers, commanding different panzer divisions during the French campaign.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pushkar.bhat » 05 Jul 2020 18:55

Just read multiple posts on the Indian Objectives if conflict was to break-up.

My assessment is that any action that the Indian's or the Chinese initiate will be very localised. My reasons for this is as follows:

1. The Chinese have been asked to settle the dispute and not expand the conflict because there can be repercussions. The current conflict is in the Western Tibet theatre (Sub Sector North) and they are advised to keep it localised to this area and sort it out locally. This means that his options are down to actions along 2-3 axis (which have been discussed adequately on this forum).

2. In the eastern we are tactically in a better position and any "Miscalculations" will come at a heavy cost.

3. Expanding the conflict beyond Sub-sector North can mean that conflict goes multilateral and a coalition of forces beyond India may open up additional fronts to support Indian operations.

Currently, India, Bhutan, Philippines, Vietnam, Japan and possibly Nepal are already complaining about the Chinese nibbling at their territories. Big Khan US has already adopted a forward posture with regards to China.

Emperor 11 is therefore in a bind. He needs to show something back home for all these misadventures (Another Dhoklam is not an option) and cannot open additional fronts and show some gains elsewhere since this will precipitate things. He knows that we are mirroring any deployments in Western Tibet so any action started by him will be costly to both sides, since we will throw everything into the fight and may even open additional fronts. He also knows that the Wuhan spirit is dead so there are no more deals with Modi and India will keep decoupling from China for at least the next few years and possibly decades. The bigger risk is that with India going "atmanirbhar" it can increase competition for Chinese firms. The Emperor should ideally be looking for a scapegoat to hang right now.

If I was in his place I will disengage, let the winter set in, allow public memory to fade away and the quietly go home. He does not have any other options on the table. Everything else is an escalatory ladder with massive implications for PRC.

Happy to hear comments.


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