India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[LakshmanPST]

Ramana and others, I would be interested in what you think of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds4sQ4npYDY

This is a YT link to a Paki TV show discussing these events (India-China clash in Ladakh). The fellow talking is Dr. Shahid Masood (SM), who I think is well-known to us BRFites. The thing is, unlike what Pakis usually do when discussing India (dismiss us with contempt and say China will kick our azzes and laugh about it) this guy sounds seriously panicked about what India is capable of doing to China in this theater of operations if war breaks out. His voice is screaming and hysterical in fear. And where does his sense of panic stem from, you ask? Well, he keeps referring to an analysis/assessment from Harvard University, written just a couple of months ago, about the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Indian and Chinese orbats in theater.

I'm not exaggerating, SM's conclusion from this Harvard report is that India will absolutely destroy PLA and PLAAF in Ladakh if war breaks out. The panic in his voice was quite delicious and amusing to me at first, but then I thought: What the hell!! Where is this guy getting all this? What is this mysterious Harvard report?

So here I am putting this matter under the scrutiny of the BRF brain trust. Is there anything to what SM says? Anything at all?

Everyone: Serious comments only, please. No dismissive one-liners, rhetorical questions, dhoti-shivering or chest-thumping triumphalism.

This is the study---> https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/defa ... stures.pdf

[SSridhar]

. . . Well, he keeps referring to an analysis/assessment from Harvard University, written just a couple of months ago, about the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Indian and Chinese orbats in theater.

I'm not exaggerating, SM's conclusion from this Harvard report is that India will absolutely destroy PLA and PLAAF in Ladakh if war breaks out. The panic in his voice was quite delicious and amusing to me at first, but then I thought: What the hell!! Where is this guy getting all this? What is this mysterious Harvard report?

I have a summary of that report. Nothing that we don't know of. It was even discussed here. I remember the astonishment of several members as to why ~200 missiles are needed per base every time.

a. IA

i. 34000 Northern Command (Ladakh) including 3000 personnel of T-72 brigade (150 Tanks) XIV Corps (14 Corps Located Leh, 1 Division)
ii. 15500 Central Command (Himachal & Uttarakhand) IX Corps (9 Corps located Yol, 2 Divisions)
iii. 175,500 Eastern Command (Arunachal Pradesh) including 1000 personnel of BrahMos regiment (100 missiles) XXXIII Corps (33 Corps Siliguri 3 Divisions), IV Corps (4 Corps West Arunachal Tezpur 3 Divisions) III Corps (3 Corps East Arunachal 3 Divisions)
iv. Ammunition shortfall issues

b. IAF

i. 75 Fighters + 34 Ground Attack + 5 ALGs Western Command (Ladakh)
ii. 94 Fighters + 34 Ground Attack + 1 ALG Central Command (Himachal & Uttarakhand)
iii. 101 Fighters + 9 ALGs Eastern Command (Arunachal)

c. PLAGF

i. 40,000 troops in Tibetan Military District (MD)
ii. 76th & 77 Group Armies (each with 3 divisions) are located at Chonqing & Baoji at the edge of eastern Tibet.
iii. Two disadvantages for China: mobilization + acclimatization

d. PLAAF

i. 157 aircraft + drone armoury
ii. MTOW reduced to half because of rarer atmosphere in Tibet based airfields. These are the four airbases Ngari-Gunsa, Shigatse, Lhasa/Gongaar & Hotan
iii. IAF planes have no such limitation.
iv. Lack of blast pens in two of the four Tibet-located Chinese airbases
v. PLAAF training & experience inferior to IAF’s
vi. PLAAF would need to use SRBM/MRBM rockets to attack IAF bases (220 missiles needed per base).

e. India Nuclear Forces

i. 10 Agni-III (3200 Km) all China , 8 Agni-II (2000 Km) missiles central China, 8 Agni-II Tibet
ii. 51 Aircraft capable of carrying nukes

f. China Nuclear Forces

i. 104 Missiles (DF-31, DF-31A, DF-21

[williams]

Folks these tunnel structures are more serious than what I thought. I just scanned through the map on a branching road from G219 in Aksai Chin that leads to a Chinese base that is in the middle of Galwan valley in the north and Pangong Tso to the south. This is close to the LAC and I found tunnel-like structures throughout the road in the following coordinates:

34.3589,79.2729
34.3643,79.2668
34.3505,79.2494
34.3272,79.2500
34.3193,79.2498
34.3412,79.1960
34.3497,79.2046
34.3530,79.2019
34.3513,79.1859
34.3342,79.1195
34.3295,79.1104 - Chinese Military Base

This is just one road. It seems like these tunnels do have some sort of military significance. I am adding a rough map of that road here.

[KLNMurthy]

...
I am quite worried because no single scenario sounds very convincing which means there's something we are unable to see.

I don’t have any specialized knowledge or insight but my read of what happened is that the Chinese plan was that the Galwan attack would traumatize the army and the nation (PTSD of 1962) and make India hold off on becoming closer with the US. The attack would have been one element of a multi-pronged assault including internal chinese-sponsored voices urging more distance from US and “neoliberal” economic model.

The failure of the attack and the national backlash is a setback to this plan. That doesn’t mean, from the Chinese pov, the plan itself is a bad one. It just means that the quick-and-dirty “fool’s mate” attempt didn’t work. Even though the other elements of this gambit did their job, namely the Congress / left beat the drum that the Chinese can occupy anything they want, and Modi is scared and helpless and useless in the face of that, he just talks and nothing else. There is of course the economic and social factor which was a part of the gambit: Wuhan virus and a global recession, which would make economic or military retaliation unaffordable.

Going forward, I see their modified strategy as including some or all of the following elements, in no particular order:

- physically eliminate Modi

- subversion of BJP higher echelons and Modi’s inner circle

- high-impact drone attacks

- high-impact cyberattacks

- street violence of the kind for which the CAA battle was only a preview

- naxal attacks

- false-flag attacks on Muslims and Christians

- intensified attacks by Pakistan

- intensified propaganda / psywar / subversion efforts to make a relationship with India unacceptable to the christians as well as woke elements of America, both of whom share a hatred of Hindu India.

- psychological warfare to break the will of the people

- and of course, invasion or at least territorial attacks. This element is actually the most costly as well as most chancy.

Overall, their concrete goal would be regime change, it seems to me.

This forum needs to be doing more Red-teaming of the Chinese. The knowledge and skills are there in the members, but our focus has been mainly on the nitty-gritty of military maneuvers. At least some energy should go into systematic honest to goodness role-playing, assessment and evaluation at a high level.

[LakshmanPST]

Folks these tunnel structures are more serious than what I thought. I just scanned through the map on a branching road from G219 in Aksai Chin that leads to a Chinese base that is in the middle of Galwan valley in the north and Pangong Tso to the south. This is close to the LAC and I found tunnel-like structures throughout the road in the following coordinates:


This is just one road. It seems like these tunnels do have some sort of military significance. I am adding a rough map of that road here.

I plotted all the Chinese roads recently on Google Earth 2 days back... I also noticed them... I noticed them even while plotting G219 highway...
These tunnel like structures along the road seem to be passage-ways for water... Coz. most of the roads are built on Rivers, Rivulets and Nalas... So, if these passageways are not provided, there will be flooding of road...

However, these are different from tunnel-like structures posted earlier in the thread which are built on hill side...

[pankajs]

^^
Some of them at least are on raised ground on side of hills. These are mostly likely to be ammo dumps to protect them from air strikes being so near the LAC.

Many portions of the LAC are more up to date on platforms other than Google maps. I haven't yet checked Bing maps. Would be an interesting project for someone with time on hands.

[LakshmanPST]

^^
Many portions of the LAC are more up to date on platforms other than Google maps. I haven't yet checked Bing maps. Would be an interesting project for someone with time on hands.

Yes, most of the images on Google Earth are from 2010 in the whole area, that too only 1 or 2 images... Some are from 2006...
No latest images available...
I had a hard time locating the roads, particularly to Galwan PP14...

[g.sarkar]

I don’t have any specialized knowledge or insight but my read of what happened is that the Chinese plan was that the Galwan attack would traumatize the army and the nation (PTSD of 1962) and make India hold off on becoming closer with the US. The attack would have been one element of a multi-pronged assault including internal chinese-sponsored voices urging more distance from US and “neoliberal” economic model.

The failure of the attack and the national backlash is a setback to this plan. That doesn’t mean, from the Chinese pov, the plan itself is a bad one. It just means that the quick-and-dirty “fool’s mate” attempt didn’t work. Even though the other elements of this gambit did their job, namely the Congress / left beat the drum that the Chinese can occupy anything they want, and Modi is scared and helpless and useless in the face of that, he just talks and nothing else. There is of course the economic and social factor which was a part of the gambit: Wuhan virus and a global recession, which would make economic or military retaliation unaffordable.

Murthyji,
Just as we in the BRF are anal-izing the Ladakh situation, I am sure most other powers are doing the same, only with far greater resources under their command. Before this incident, it was an acceptable fact that Cheeni maal was do number ka, inferior products, not anywhere in quality of US or Russian stuff. This incident has shown that the Sugar forces are physically weak and their jernails are risk averse in a war like situation created by themselves. This will encourage them to treat Sugarland far more aggressively in future confrontations, knowing that Cheen will retreat rather than fight.
Gautam

[RaviB]

...
I am quite worried because no single scenario sounds very convincing which means there's something we are unable to see.

I don’t have any specialized knowledge or insight but my read of what happened is that the Chinese plan was that the Galwan attack would traumatize the army and the nation (PTSD of 1962) and make India hold off on becoming closer with the US. The attack would have been one element of a multi-pronged assault including internal chinese-sponsored voices urging more distance from US and “neoliberal” economic model.

The failure of the attack and the national backlash is a setback to this plan. That doesn’t mean, from the Chinese pov, the plan itself is a bad one. It just means that the quick-and-dirty “fool’s mate” attempt didn’t work. Even though the other elements of this gambit did their job, namely the Congress / left beat the drum that the Chinese can occupy anything they want, and Modi is scared and helpless and useless in the face of that, he just talks and nothing else. There is of course the economic and social factor which was a part of the gambit: Wuhan virus and a global recession, which would make economic or military retaliation unaffordable.

Going forward, I see their modified strategy as including some or all of the following elements, in no particular order:

- physically eliminate Modi
- subversion of BJP higher echelons and Modi’s inner circle
- high-impact drone attacks
- high-impact cyberattacks
- street violence of the kind for which the CAA battle was only a preview
- naxal attacks
- false-flag attacks on Muslims and Christians
- intensified attacks by Pakistan
- intensified propaganda / psywar / subversion efforts to make a relationship with India unacceptable to the christians as well as woke elements of America, both of whom share a hatred of Hindu India.
- psychological warfare to break the will of the people
- and of course, invasion or at least territorial attacks. This element is actually the most costly as well as most chancy.

Overall, their concrete goal would be regime change, it seems to me.

KLNMurthy ji, your points make a lot of sense. The attack on Modi is actually very likely to have been at least a secondary, if not primary goal. The Chinese name for Modi is something like "sweet flute" or "pied piper". He basically plays a tune and keeps the people of India fooled. They also have a very poor understanding of how democracy works (obviously) so usually take our TV channels as reflecting the government line. There is also no understanding of the slant of various channels, or commercial considerations. That's why a major demand was that the government should reign in nationalist media. Another important belief they have is that India is full of what Nehru called "fissiparious tendencies", ready to split apart at the first sign of external pressure. The Delhi riots were for them a clear sign of impending civil war, and the CAA protests were as dangerous to the Indian government as the Tiananmen protests had been to the CCP.

When (I think if wasn't considered) they humiliate India at the border, they directly demonstrate to the Indian public that Modi is weak and break his hold on the Indian people's imagination. They would definitely have indirectly sounded out the Congress on this. Would an incursion threaten the strong image of Modi and lead the opposition to attack the BJP? We all know what the Congress would have answered. The all party meeting and support from opposition including from sworn enemies like Mamta di, undermined this belief about being able to worsen the political faultlines. The public also wasn't cowering in fear. And Galwan was a game changer because it began to raise uncomfortable questions within China and turned all their assumptions on their head: India wasn't backing down, SHA soldiers were getting killed, India was also retaliating economically, USA was distracted but not distracted enough. So a failure to achieve their political goals would indeed be a cause for retreat.

This forum needs to be doing more Red-teaming of the Chinese. The knowledge and skills are there in the members, but our focus has been mainly on the nitty-gritty of military maneuvers. At least some energy should go into systematic honest to goodness role-playing, assessment and evaluation at a high level.

I think this is a fantastic idea. We could have a war game thread where members form teams to simulate India, China, Pakistan, third party actors. I think the members have all the necessary knowledge and will be able to do a very realistic simulation. I have no experience with war gaming but I'm sure several members do and I would be happy to role play from the red side. I'm reading Deans ji's book right now and I'm finding his scenario building a very illuminating exercise. It would be a lot more substantial contribution than simply sharing links and idle speculation individually. For example Ramana ji posted a link to the logistics thread which I found eye opening, so combining the expertise of members would be a learning experience for all of us

What do the mods think? Should we create a thread and do a war game? Would there be interest?

[Aditya_V]

Guys is it a mere coincidence that the Chinese did their dastardly act on Colonel Santhosh Babu on 15 June which is the same date as Xi Jinping's Birthday, was killing him and 3 Indian Soldiers some preplanned Birthday gift for dear leader by the PLA which all went wrong once the Indian soldiers did not take it lying done but gave it back.

BTW some twitter sources say that an S-300 system has been deployed behind Tso Tang lake in Aksai Chin/ Gosthana, anyone else heard of this?

[srin]

I just had an interesting thought - what's the probable response from the bat-eaters if we do the real-estate encroachment on them ? Like push back beyond PP14 or go to Finger 8 and stay there ?
Are they going to leak to media and then publicize like we did ?
Or are they going to push back silently ?
Or are they going to swallow their pride and fall back ?

[Aditya_V]

What is this twitter post quoting CCTV from Docji saying. We have Helipad at bend at Galwan and built our posts across?

https://twitter.com/bennedose/status/12 ... 5318803462

https://twitter.com/bennedose/status/12 ... 7504694272

Indian Helipad at Galwan river right angle bend from which India allowed 40 Chinese helicopter sorties evacuating 2 stretchers per sortie after the Galwan clash

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/fravel/status/1280694316067930112

1. A new thread on China’s maps and claims in the Galwan Valley on the China-India border
2. Bottom-line up-front: An authoritative map shows that China’s claims in the Galwan Valley end around what India views as the LAC at PP14, where the Galwan river bends before reaching the Shyok river. This map also clarifies references to the “estuary” in PRC statements.
3. My assessment from this thread about an expansion of China’s claim in the area has now changed.
4. Background: PRC statements have highlighted the significance of the “estuary” in the Galwan Valley, which in Chinese is 河口 (hekou) and could also be translated as “river mouth.”
5. On June 25, PRC ambo Sun said that in the 6/6 disengagement agreement, India “promised that they would not cross the estuary of the Galwan river to patrol and build facilities” and that the “two sides agreed to build observation posts on either side of the Galwan river mouth.”
6. The references to estuary and river mouth were puzzling, if they referred to where the Galwan meets the Shyok. It is unlikely India would have agreed to withdraw 5km from PP14 or allow China to build a post so close to its position on the Shyok and the DSDBO road.
7. However, the maps below place the Galwan estuary not where the Galwan meets the Shyok but instead at the bend in the river at the LAC / PP14 and where the clash occurred on June 15.
8. The source is the China's National Platform for Common Geospatial Information Services (国家地理信息公共服务平台), which is under the Ministry of Natural Resources. This should be viewed as authoritative.
9. This map shows the boundary line between China and India around the Galwan Valley, noting the location of the Galwan and Shyok Rivers. Consistent with previous maps, it does not show China’s boundary extending to where the Galwan meets the Shyok, falling a bit short.
   
10. These two maps highlight the area around PP14 on the LAC. Note the Chinese characters for “estuary” (河口), which appear southeast of where the Galwan River bends or PP14, on the Chinese side of the LAC.
    
11. Thus, the extent of China’s claim appears to end around the LAC at PP14 and does not extend all the way to Shyok. In other words, China's claim does not appear to have changed, given where the estuary is marked on the map (if the map is accurate). /END

Notes ...

• LAC is beyond PP-14 (triangular ledge @ the bend) on the Chinese side but just beyond. My calculation, based on "The Hindu" report that Chellaney had used to buttress his absurd narrative, is that LAC is about 250 m from the PP-14 on the Chinese side.
• Remember, GOI acting surprised when the Galwan became the center of action because that area the "perceptions" of both sides are in agreement.
• The Chinese "estuary" claim is the area around the LAC and not the junction of Galwan/Shyok.
• The Chinese did intrude into our area by about 250-400 meters and pitch tents.
• When the Indian forces took the fight to the Chinese, they did cross the LAC to hit back.

Based on the above, we can conclusively debunk Chellaney and his narrative that the dis-engagement @ Galwan is unequal.

[ranneel]

I think this is a fantastic idea. We could have a war game thread where members form teams to simulate India, China, Pakistan, third party actors. I think the members have all the necessary knowledge and will be able to do a very realistic simulation. I have no experience with war gaming but I'm sure several members do and I would be happy to role play from the red side. I'm reading Deans ji's book right now and I'm finding his scenario building a very illuminating exercise. It would be a lot more substantial contribution than simply sharing links and idle speculation individually. For example Ramana ji posted a link to the logistics thread which I found eye opening, so combining the expertise of members would be a learning experience for all of us

What do the mods think? Should we create a thread and do a war game? Would there be interest?

I had planned to do a similar exercise for simulating different scenarios (but was focused more on the LoC) with the goal to understand effective infiltration from Pok side and responses. It is still in works.
The rudimentary plan/framework was the following:
1. Digitalize a open-street map (xml) into sectors of say (100 m by 100 m).
2. A single sector has information regarding the entity present in it whether it is a part of a road, house,etc along with the terrain detain on mean height.
3. Start with simple actors like either a battalion,vechicles,etc present in certain sectors based on actual deployments.
4. A set of real life rules like if a truck needs to go from sector A1 to sector B1 then it needs to follow the roads connecting A1 and B1,etc.
The whole point was to create a framework where different scenarios could be played out in a "turn based" fashion.

Some work has been done...not sure if this works out. Ofcourse the computation/memory requirements would be quite large.
I just though I would bounce this off here to understand the problems that would be faced by such a system.
Suggestions are welcome esp the realism that would be needed to be factored in.

[RaviB]

I had planned to do a similar exercise for simulating different scenarios (but was focused more on the LoC) with the goal to understand effective infiltration from Pok side and responses. It is still in works.
The rudimentary plan/framework was the following:
1. Digitalize a open-street map (xml) into sectors of say (100 m by 100 m).
2. A single sector has information regarding the entity present in it whether it is a part of a road, house,etc along with the terrain detain on mean height.
3. Start with simple actors like either a battalion,vechicles,etc present in certain sectors based on actual deployments.
4. A set of real life rules like if a truck needs to go from sector A1 to sector B1 then it needs to follow the roads connecting A1 and B1,etc.
The whole point was to create a framework where different scenarios could be played out in a "turn based" fashion.

Some work has been done...not sure if this works out. Ofcourse the computation/memory requirements would be quite large.
I just though I would bounce this off here to understand the problems that would be faced by such a system.
Suggestions are welcome esp the realism that would be needed to be factored in.

I was thinking more at the strategic level, in any case keeping the resolution no higher than 1 sq. km or maybe even 10 sq km would massively reduce the computation required. Although, I think we should try something more like a game and less like a computer simulation.

[chola]

The mil side we can always wargame with known units. (I wouldn't want to play the Red Team unless it is a long war. Numbers too stacked for the Blue.)

Now it is the political side that is hard to game. The only reason the Blue military was not unleashed during Doklam and the immediate aftermath of 16 Bihar was political concerns not military ones. Now if it is hard to figure out the GOI then what chance do we have for a proper understanding of the CCP and a realistic Red side?

People project our logic or our stereotypes onto them. The average desi expects the human wave chinis to attack during both Doklam and Galwan but I found that unlikely just by looking at their war record. They haven't fought in 40 years. No experience. Why doesn't the GOI take advantage of that?

In BR, most of us would have taken the mil side advantage and attacked. In real life, no. No gaming here will be accurate because not many of us really fathom the political decisions of the GOI. And pretty much none of us can figure out the inscrutable chini man.

[SRajesh]

https://youtu.be/bEA7I7n6o6k
Modi the 'Shaolin Monk'

[ks_sachin]

In BR, most of us would have taken the mil side advantage and attacked. In real life, no. No gaming here will be accurate because not many of us really fathom the political decisions of the GOI. And pretty much none of us can figure out the inscrutable chini man.

O bearer of the famous name Cholaji what makes you say that we have a mil side advantage?

[ks_sachin]

I think this is a fantastic idea. We could have a war game thread where members form teams to simulate India, China, Pakistan, third party actors. I think the members have all the necessary knowledge and will be able to do a very realistic simulation. I have no experience with war gaming but I'm sure several members do and I would be happy to role play from the red side. I'm reading Deans ji's book right now and I'm finding his scenario building a very illuminating exercise. It would be a lot more substantial contribution than simply sharing links and idle speculation individually. For example Ramana ji posted a link to the logistics thread which I found eye opening, so combining the expertise of members would be a learning experience for all of us

What do the mods think? Should we create a thread and do a war game? Would there be interest?

I had planned to do a similar exercise for simulating different scenarios (but was focused more on the LoC) with the goal to understand effective infiltration from Pok side and responses. It is still in works.
The rudimentary plan/framework was the following:
1. Digitalize a open-street map (xml) into sectors of say (100 m by 100 m).
2. A single sector has information regarding the entity present in it whether it is a part of a road, house,etc along with the terrain detain on mean height.
3. Start with simple actors like either a battalion,vechicles,etc present in certain sectors based on actual deployments.
4. A set of real life rules like if a truck needs to go from sector A1 to sector B1 then it needs to follow the roads connecting A1 and B1,etc.
The whole point was to create a framework where different scenarios could be played out in a "turn based" fashion.

Some work has been done...not sure if this works out. Ofcourse the computation/memory requirements would be quite large.
I just though I would bounce this off here to understand the problems that would be faced by such a system.
Suggestions are welcome esp the realism that would be needed to be factored in.

IF it was that easy sir then based on our experience of sand models and simulations we would have the 3 Div near abouts Beijing,,,,
While this exercise is interesting try to get the input of someone senior who has served in the area in questions Sir.

[KL Dubey]

@KLDubey-ji, it isn't that easy. Giving Pak a shock, yes but terrain is against us in GB. GB without rest of POK is going to be difficult as I showed. Even if we win the ground maintaining and keeping it with us will be hard. Good to speak of, warns the heart but I would be happier if we had a concrete plan. I don't see us having the logistic logistic withal for this at the moment.

What's your proposed solution?

I didn't pose any "problem" I'm describing the background events as documented and known, which are the most likely cause of the Chinese deployment. I am sure GoI has a concrete plan so why second-guess the people who are doing their job...since you and I do not know the details of logistics and operational plans of the armed forces. We can only make general statements here. And BTW, I am talking about both POK and GB together, not just one of them. Also, I do not believe/understand the "2-front" war doctrine...to me it is a single front from Gujarat to Arunachal. The enemy is now pretty much a single entity using the same equipment and with the same goals.

[KL Dubey]

This forum needs to be doing more Red-teaming of the Chinese. The knowledge and skills are there in the members, but our focus has been mainly on the nitty-gritty of military maneuvers. At least some energy should go into systematic honest to goodness role-playing, assessment and evaluation at a high level.

It sounds like a great idea when you first write it down, but isn't every item on your list the job of the NSA and his staff to analyze in the painstaking detail and prevent using their full knowledge of the situation, tools, and methods ? To my knowledge, "red team" gaming has to be done by seasoned experts on the topic in order to be effective. And results from it have to be confidentially given to the "blue team", not publicly seen. I tend to agree with "Chola"....Now if you want knowledgeable folks on BRF to do our small part, have a confidential gaming activity and report, and submit the results to PMO (e.g., through Mygov.in) as our "humble contribution", that would be great.

[vijayk]

https://youtu.be/bEA7I7n6o6k
Modi the 'Shaolin Monk'

this was shown on Japanese TV it seems

[Vivasvat]

cross posting from "Understand the US - Again" thread

China's Attempt to Influence U.S. Institutions: A Conversation with FBI Director Christopher Wray
Video starts after 6:00 minutes. His speech starts after 7 minutes, 45 seconds

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The US is now bringing out what has been known for years into the open.
A case against the lizard is being made, and it's picking up pace.

Questions are:
a) Is it just for elections? I would think and hope not.
b) How will this manifest? Via just economic curbs/sanctions or accompanied by direct military action?
c) Is this being done with the Quad behind the scenes?
d) Has Europe/Scandinavia done any open accusation of the lizard like this?

[KLNMurthy]

...

I think this is a fantastic idea. We could have a war game thread where members form teams to simulate India, China, Pakistan, third party actors. I think the members have all the necessary knowledge and will be able to do a very realistic simulation. I have no experience with war gaming but I'm sure several members do and I would be happy to role play from the red side. I'm reading Deans ji's book right now and I'm finding his scenario building a very illuminating exercise. It would be a lot more substantial contribution than simply sharing links and idle speculation individually. For example Ramana ji posted a link to the logistics thread which I found eye opening, so combining the expertise of members would be a learning experience for all of us

What do the mods think? Should we create a thread and do a war game? Would there be interest?

I had wondered, even as I was posting, whether the Strategic forum was a better place for it, but decided that, with a Chinese hat on, the Mil-Strat distinction is a bit blurry in this case.

We can’t afford to make the unkil mistake of underestimating the Chinese. We have to assume that their best strategic minds are on the job of assessing and evaluating the Galwan affray. (In reality, their very best minds are probably on the US desk, but we mustn’t assume that.)

I agree that there seems to be a strong parallel between Rahul Gandhi’s Modi-strategy of “shredding” his enemy’s reputation and the Chinese Galwan gambit. Unlike Rahul Gandhi, however, the Chinese can be expected to learn and improve. For Star Trek fans, the Borg would be a useful analogy. In the medium-term (5-10 years?) we might expect them to raise a significant number of divisions that are not afflicted with cowardice in the battlefield. (Maybe use prisoners to role-play Indian troops in training? Or use some kind of neurochemical conditioning?)

If I were them, I would certainly work to improve my understanding of modern Indian culture and politics, recognizing that my own limitations of perspective are hindering me. I would probably recruit some US-based Chinese (because of knowledge of open societies) to start with something as simple as mining BRF to generate processable intelligence data for my simulation and war-gaming departments.

BRF is a great resource for higher-order OSINT. We would have to assume that, sooner than later, the enemy will know at least as much as BRF about India. Right now, we are protected by their lack of respect for India. Modi is on course to change that.

[KLNMurthy]

This forum needs to be doing more Red-teaming of the Chinese. The knowledge and skills are there in the members, but our focus has been mainly on the nitty-gritty of military maneuvers. At least some energy should go into systematic honest to goodness role-playing, assessment and evaluation at a high level.

It sounds like a great idea when you first write it down, but isn't every item on your list the job of the NSA and his staff to analyze in the painstaking detail and prevent using their full knowledge of the situation, tools, and methods ? To my knowledge, "red team" gaming has to be done by seasoned experts on the topic in order to be effective. And results from it have to be confidentially given to the "blue team", not publicly seen. I tend to agree with "Chola"....Now if you want knowledgeable folks on BRF to do our small part, have a confidential gaming activity and report, and submit the results to PMO (e.g., through Mygov.in) as our "humble contribution", that would be great.

Yeah in another post I was talking myself to the same conclusion that, if BRF got too good, it may pose a security risk, if it isn’t one already, being that OSINT is all the rage.

I don’t know the answer, but for sure we have to factor in the reality that an open society has its own strengths and vulnerabilities when fighting a closed one. Is it realistic to expect that the collective mind of BRFites will forever consciously avoid growing to higher levels in the rakshak domain which is a passion for its members?

[KLNMurthy]

This forum needs to be doing more Red-teaming of the Chinese. The knowledge and skills are there in the members, but our focus has been mainly on the nitty-gritty of military maneuvers. At least some energy should go into systematic honest to goodness role-playing, assessment and evaluation at a high level.

It sounds like a great idea when you first write it down, but isn't every item on your list the job of the NSA and his staff to analyze in the painstaking detail and prevent using their full knowledge of the situation, tools, and methods ? To my knowledge, "red team" gaming has to be done by seasoned experts on the topic in order to be effective. And results from it have to be confidentially given to the "blue team", not publicly seen. I tend to agree with "Chola"....Now if you want knowledgeable folks on BRF to do our small part, have a confidential gaming activity and report, and submit the results to PMO (e.g., through Mygov.in) as our "humble contribution", that would be great.

Agreed that NSA team would have the job of gaming and is better qualified. However the nature of the organization brings its own strengths and vulnerabilities. NSA office is a bureaucracy, as is the CMC of China. BRF is different, more open-source. A BRF exercise could add value.

[vijayk]

'You cannot withdraw all your money,' Amid financial crisis, China puts withdrawal limit on frightened citizens
https://tfipost.com/2020/07/you-cannot- ... -citizens/

Amid the growing number of cases of bank run and talks of an upcoming financial crisis, the Chinese government has put restrictions on large cash withdrawals. In the last few weeks, many local banks have been unable to pay back customers as a large number of people gathered to withdraw their deposits.


The rumours (probably reality) about the collapse of the Chinese economy and its financial systems has started a rush to withdraw the deposits. First, the local governments and the police in both Hebei and Shanxi provinces have pleaded with customers to not withdraw cash from banks on ‘unsubstantiated rumours’.

But, when the assurance from the local governments and warnings from police did not work, the government launched a pilot program in Hebei province requiring the businesses and public to seek approval from authorities to withdraw their own money. The two-year pilot program will be expanded to Zhejiang and Shenzhen provinces in October this year, encompassing 70 million people in three provinces.

Local police have started arresting people who talk about the collapse of the Chinese economy and the failure of the banks to pay back the deposits. The 40 trillion dollars banking system- arguably the largest in the world- is under strain due to growing defaults from companies and business, and this led to insecurity among the depositors.

The non-performing assets (NPAs) of China’s local banks have grown exponentially in the last few years as the artificial real estate boom went bust and a number of companies defaulted on loans.

A few days ago, a gold scam worth billions of dollars was reported in China. Kingold Jewelry Inc, China’s largest privately-owned gold processing and jewellery company headquartered in Wuhan, took a loan of more than 20 billion Yuan, that is, 2.8 billion dollars with pure gold as collateral. But, when the shadow banks claimed the gold after the company was unable to pay back, they found that what the company claimed as pure gold was actually copper.

This sent shockwaves in the Chinese shadow banking industry and the shares of shadow banks, known as Trusts in China, collapsed. In the latest developments, Sichuan Trust, one of China’s largest shadow banks, apologized to investors for missing the deadline for payments on financial products.

The Chinese companies have lost the market worth trillions of dollars due to the Coronavirus lockdown and sentiment against Chinese goods in the last few months. This means that these businesses would be unable to pay back and therefore prone to default, which will fuel distrust in banks leading to panic withdrawal of deposits.

Therefore, the Chinese economy is set to suffer a big jolt in the next few days, shockwaves of which would be felt around the world. And as we have said before, China’s counterfeit culture and forced demand creation are to be blamed.

Wondering if this has anything to do with these scums trying all shenanigans at the border. They may become more belligerent to cover up unrest

[ramana]

@KLDubey-ji, it isn't that easy. Giving Pak a shock, yes but terrain is against us in GB. GB without rest of POK is going to be difficult as I showed. Even if we win the ground maintaining and keeping it with us will be hard. Good to speak of, warns the heart but I would be happier if we had a concrete plan. I don't see us having the logistic logistic withal for this at the moment.

What's your proposed solution?

I didn't pose any "problem" I'm describing the background events as documented and known, which are the most likely cause of the Chinese deployment. I am sure GoI has a concrete plan so why second-guess the people who are doing their job...since you and I do not know the details of logistics and operational plans of the armed forces. We can only make general statements here. And BTW, I am talking about both POK and GB together, not just one of them. Also, I do not believe/understand the "2-front" war doctrine...to me it is a single front from Gujarat to Arunachal. The enemy is now pretty much a single entity using the same equipment and with the same goals.

Even a simplified Red team game is very useful. And should be done to sharpen analytic skills and reduces whines.
The GDF needed login and gave some modicum of privacy. It went south for various reasons.

In reality after 1962, India faced three front war. West, East Pakistan and China.
1965 war extreme care was taken to keep East Pakistan quiet and 1971 removed the threat.
The Afghan jihad and fall of Soviet Union energised the 0.5 front. This internal 0.5 front is 0.15 jihadi+0.1 Naxal+0.25 Sold out politicians of all shades.
After Balakot, the Pakistan front reduced to a theater of the giant China-Pak front.
In this axis, there are peculiarities.
China can't afford a defeat even in a skirmish for that will ensure loss if face for the Emperor in Beijing.
Pakistan like Ghazni or Ghori can sustain a defeat repeatedly and come back. For them the last battle matters not the past lost battles.

Raja Suhel Dev showed the way by defeating Sala Mahsud Ghazni and brought peace for 150 years till Ghori.

Indira Gandhi bought peace for 20 years with liberation of Bangladesh.

N^3 gave the slogan "Give peace a chance destroy Pakistan" Sounds drastic but Cato gave same slogan about Carthage "Delando est Carthage!"

Some threats need total destruction.
China will see reason after its foil is removed.

[pankajs]

Unverified but something I wanted to know ...

https://twitter.com/FrontalAssault1/sta ... 2973003776

FrontalAssault @FrontalAssault1

As per reports, the special reps talk on Sunday between Doval-Wang was requested by Chinese side to descalate tensions. While most places have witnessed disengagement, much is still left to be done in Pangong by PLA.

[V_Raman]

Stamp of raja suheldev



Looks like Amish published a book on him!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legend_of ... aved_India

[pankajs]

^^
Wrong thread ... another post on this page too should have been posted else where ...

https://twitter.com/SVOjha/status/1280808173398642688

Sumedha V Ojha @SVOjha

A Journey To LAC Which Took Indian Army 16-18 Days Now Takes Just 24 Hours, Here's Why China's Frustrated https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/a-jo ... frustrated via @swarajyamag

A twitter post by GT too showed concern about the Indian infra buildup.

[ramana]

Unverified but something I wanted to know ...

https://twitter.com/FrontalAssault1/sta ... 2973003776

FrontalAssault @FrontalAssault1

As per reports, the special reps talk on Sunday between Doval-Wang was requested by Chinese side to descalate tensions. While most places have witnessed disengagement, much is still left to be done in Pangong by PLA.

Yes. It was requested by China.
They had their own kauf naak night.

[CRamS]

Gurus, can you decode Mike Pompeo's statement, especially th bolded part:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indi ... SKBN2492D7

“The Chinese took incredibly aggressive action. The Indians have done their best to respond to that ,” Pompeo said in a news conference at the State Department.

What does 'doing their best' mean? Pappu and his slaves like Ajai Crooklaw will now sieze on this and say 'no evidence' of Chincom troops killed as crooklaw said in his NYT propaganda attack on ModiJi.

Among all the asinine attacks on ModiJi, the most asinine of all of them was from some Hindu reporter asking "who will bring justice to the 20 troops killed" to a BJP spokesman on a debate. Even assuming the question has validity for those martyred in war, the insinuation that somehow ModiJi must be punished as justice for the troops martyred is most seditious and shameful.

[pankajs]

Modi stand tall on the latest Indo-China ruckus... let the rest bark. Listen to the General below where he make that point and much more.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dA2KE2IzPZk
The World Against China - Why Did China Disengage in Ladakh? | Lt Gen Ata Hasnain and Sanjay Dixit

[williams]

What does 'doing their best' mean? Pappu and his slaves like Ajai Crooklaw will now sieze on this and say 'no evidence' of Chincom troops killed as crooklaw said in his NYT propaganda attack on ModiJi.

I think it is the GOI stance conveyed to Pompeo through EAM Jaishankar that Indian response is very restrained to Chinese aggression. This is actually true, we could have gone kinetic in Galwan after the 15th incident. I don't know if GOI cares much about what Shukla thinks or for that matter what Pappu thinks. They will keep harping the same thing even if we go all the way to Johnson's claim line.

IMO It is better to show China as the aggressor to the world and that provides us the right to respond aggressively whenever we want. To an extent opposition harping for more blood is useful when we want to take more action. The thing is we have the best team in GOI right now. They will use every means to keep the Chins in check.

[Sanju]

Modi stand tall on the latest Indo-China ruckus... let the rest bark. Listen to the General below where he make that point and much more.
<snip>

Thanks for posting the Jaipur Dialogues link. It is worth a listen. At around the 32 min mark, it is discussed how in 5 mins the Galwan tactical battle turned Strategic, very much in India's favour.

[Anujan]

^^
Wrong thread ... another post on this page too should have been posted else where ...

https://twitter.com/SVOjha/status/1280808173398642688

Sumedha V Ojha @SVOjha

A Journey To LAC Which Took Indian Army 16-18 Days Now Takes Just 24 Hours, Here's Why China's Frustrated https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/a-jo ... frustrated via @swarajyamag

A twitter post by GT too showed concern about the Indian infra buildup.

I followed GT articles and their editor. It is nothing more than a rag in the lines of national enquirer, it is certainly not "china's mouthpiece". I think other papers closer to the actual power centers are worth following.

[Mort Walker]

IMO It is better to show China as the aggressor to the world and that provides us the right to respond aggressively whenever we want. To an extent opposition harping for more blood is useful when we want to take more action. The thing is we have the best team in GOI right now. They will use every means to keep the Chins in check.

The Chinese and TSP have taken this position due to India's strategic weakness. Even if 5 years back the decision was made to go full throttle with mass domestic manufacturing of the LCA Tejas Mk1, Mk1A, Arjun, Dhanush and Akash+Rajendra, the situation would be very different today. Doklam wouldn't have happened, the Pakis would not have sent suicide bombers to Pulwama, and the standoff in Ladakh would have not occurred. Of course the budget is a concern where health care, sanitation, water, and education are very important, but at the same time domestic mass manufacturing of defense goods must be a priority as it will raise the tide that lifts all boats.

The video of Sanjay Dixit and retired general Hasnain is disturbing in the fact they count the US on India's side. This may not be true in a little over 6 months from now where the US will be hostile to India and lecture it on Cashmere and human rights where the next administration sets the clock back to 1993.

[SriKumar]

^^
Wrong thread ... another post on this page too should have been posted else where ...

https://twitter.com/SVOjha/status/1280808173398642688
A twitter post by GT too showed concern about the Indian infra buildup.

I followed GT articles and their editor. It is nothing more than a rag in the lines of national enquirer, it is certainly not "china's mouthpiece". I think other papers closer to the actual power centers are worth following.

Which is why some of us call Global Times as 'Gobar Times'.

'Gobar' means cow-dung in Hindi, so technically speaking, it would also mean 'bullshit', which may be a more accurate description of the contents ofGlobal Gobar Times.

[anupmisra]

Many of you are into cartography. Here's a link to the detailed contour map which shows the area in dispute and where India's claims extend. Note the date and origin of this map. Use it as you deem fit. Draw your own conclusions.

I hope this proves to be a useful tool .

http://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/jog/i ... -india.pdf