India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

The Military Issues & History Forum is a venue to discuss issues relating to the military aspects of the Indian Armed Forces, whether the past, present or future. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
VinodTK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2395
Joined: 18 Jun 2000 11:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby VinodTK » 11 Sep 2020 07:39

CRamS wrote::
I am not Dhothi shivering, but heard none other than retd. general Jaswal say that we are spending upwards of Rs. 100 crore (or is it 150) per day in Eastern Ladakh confronting the Chincoms. This is unsustainable and will ruin India IMO. I wish both sides cut a face saving deal and move on. Enough of this nonsense.


Nothing against your CRamS

Maybe it is time to die with honor rather than always saying there is no money and we cannot fund the armed forces needs. What is the point of all the development if the country cannot defend itself!
How come there is always money for farm loan wavers and subsadies from A through Z

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21055
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Philip » 11 Sep 2020 07:41

I agree with many analysts who say that the issue is not military positions in inhospitable Himalayan heights but a much greater
"great game". It is China's rightful place as overlord of Asia and in the future the globe. China,rather the PRC,Taiwan is democratic China, wants Asian nations and the globe to kowtow to it, hand over territory which it clains as tribute, and enter into economic servility so that the PRC can feast forever at the world's expense.

Unfortunately,India irritatingly , isn't willing to lie down, roll over, and like a dog who's come off second best in a bone fight, accept a thrashing for being impudent,refusing to accept the status of a vassal. The old lion Uncle Sam,leader of the pack for a century,is tired after innumerable conflicts that has bled him both physically and economically. His tribe are snarling at themselves viciously in their lair. His cave is in disarray, he is in retreat across the globe with little stomach for a fight."
Pretender to the throne,Ping- Pong Xitler, is seizing the moment and opportunity to upend Uncle Sam. Irritating India snapping at his heels ,impeding his "one belt,one road " ⁰highway to glory, needs to be flicked away with one swipe of his paw.Well ,that's what he believes is what is required.

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 19840
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Karan M » 11 Sep 2020 07:45

CRamS wrote:Looks like Chincom foreign minister and EAM Jayshankar have reached some kind of a break through. Can the gurus please decode:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... loh4H.html

I can bet you ModiJi haters including the Pappus and Crooklaws, as also super hawks like Brahma Chellaney and Bharat Karnard will pooh pooh this, but I am optimistic.

I am not Dhothi shivering, but heard none other than retd. general Jaswal say that we are spending upwards of Rs. 100 crore (or is it 150) per day in Eastern Ladakh confronting the Chincoms. This is unsustainable and will ruin India IMO. I wish both sides cut a face saving deal and move on. Enough of this nonsense.


Go look up how much India spent on Siachen and where it is today. The need for a "face saving deal" because "enough of this nonsense" is exactly why India is in a precarious state with its opponents as many in the past have positioned it as always looking for a cheap deal as versus the hard-nosed admin today.

Please don't post further on this thread if you are going to post more on these lines. This is not the thread for you to drag in negativity as oft seen on the TSP thread.

Please take this as an admin unofficial warning and cease and desist from posting in this thread unless you have something serious to contribute. Any more arguments and you will be back only once the crisis is over. Your call. Admins have enough on their plate without having to manage all the self-flagellation for PRC bots to pick up.

V_Raman
BRFite
Posts: 831
Joined: 04 Sep 2008 22:25

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby V_Raman » 11 Sep 2020 07:46

Other way to think about this is that this ties India down without resorting to any mischief while China takes on USA. This is chump change for them to achieve that.

CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6865
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54
Contact:

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby CRamS » 11 Sep 2020 07:53

Karan M wrote:
Don't post further on this thread if you are going to post more on these lines. This is not the thread for you to drag in your negativity as oft seen on the TSP thread.


You know there is always the ignore option. Mine is one opinion among many. Feel free to accept others and disregard mine. I am not going to get into a waste of time fight with you.

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 19840
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Karan M » 11 Sep 2020 07:54

When an admin requests you to do something, please follow it. See you after a week. Ideally it would have been more. Please dont abuse the leeway and take us for granted.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8933
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Mort Walker » 11 Sep 2020 08:11

Rs. 150 Cr works out to about $7.5 billion a year. I think India can do just that for at least a few years and it would also spend more to quickly build road infrastructure and airports in the border states. Yes, expensive, but less than 0.2% of GDP. It would signal to China not invest too much in western and southern Tibet in terms of military capacity since it will result in very little for them. India simply has too many people and assets in the border to make it worth their while.

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 19840
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Karan M » 11 Sep 2020 08:12

A simple reminder for all the folks posting on this thread. Please don't bring in needless fears here. If you think you need to vent about something, hold off for a while.

Indian citizens elected the Govt of India to handle such incidents and its decision makers and arms of action such as the Armed Forces are engaged in a near conflict situation.

The PRC guys datamine the net to figure out how and where to bring in talking points to coerce public opinion. Please don't give them that.

Karan M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 19840
Joined: 19 Mar 2010 00:58

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Karan M » 11 Sep 2020 08:13

Mort Walker wrote:Rs. 150 Cr works out to about $7.5 billion a year. I think India can do just that for at least a few years and it would also spend more to quickly build road infrastructure and airports in the border states. Yes, expensive, but less than 0.2% of GDP. It would signal to China not invest too much in western and southern Tibet in terms of military capacity since it will result in very little for them. India simply has too many people and assets in the border to make it worth their while.


High initial costs are always there in the initial phases of a deployment. Once infra is set up, stabilizes, costs come down to a lower threshold.

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3102
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshan » 11 Sep 2020 08:15

Math is not black and white as all the other side effects would have to be accounted for. It's also not clear if it will always be the same number. I had posted some time back about a trade of saving money due to 370 removal and economy being introduced to north east. Numbers make nice comments and headlines but are just linear first order analysis.

Net gain overall if local MIC and systematic infrastructure skills are acquired. Also this leadership can be trusted to make things set in stone in such manner than tomorrow no MMS or pappu can easily hand things over to enemies.

samirdiw
BRFite
Posts: 184
Joined: 18 Jul 2017 22:00

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby samirdiw » 11 Sep 2020 08:28

He is also believed to have told Wang that the Indian Army never tried to transgress the LAC, refuting a frequent Chinese allegation.


This bullshit has not stopped? The Chinese never apologize when they enter any area what they consider is their territory, this side of LAC or that side. Then why is Jaishankar bending over backwards? If we treat LAC like IB then why not just draw the border there instead of fooling the Indian people.

schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1759
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby schinnas » 11 Sep 2020 08:30

Actually during temporary economic contraction, governments spend. Most of the spend is benefiting local people of Ladhakh and northern states in terms of construction labor, drivers, porters and the like. For the Army, the money earmarked for some other large exercise or wasteful import would be used for building critical military set up in the border heights. Think of it as different sort of army exercise with huge positive return on investment in terms of learnings, power projection and defense impact.

So economic cost is NOT a factor. Govt has already made sure the economic cost to China is 10x more by killing their global digital app dominance plans and slowly nibbling at the mobile phone manufacturing plans and lost access to Indian market for their power, telecom, transport, shipping and construction companies.

It is China that is facing a disproportionate cost impact. Not us.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8933
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Mort Walker » 11 Sep 2020 08:30

Does the Chinese FM have any sway in the PLA? If there is no statement from 11, then any agreement means nothing. Wang Yi seems like a face for foreigners and maybe out of the power loop. When the DMs met, the Chinese side had stone faces and didn't agree on anything. This agreement seems more like buying time for a PLA buildup and then an assault come October/November.

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3102
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshan » 11 Sep 2020 08:34

chinese can't be trusted even if they head back to han border. All it means is that they have weapons to target India from far but they haven't changed and their mindset will not change till they get punched on regular basis from all directions. Just the way hans roll. This CCP lot plans things on centennial basis so trusting them is foolish. They will just wait.

Jarita
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2492
Joined: 30 Oct 2009 22:27
Location: Andromeda

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Jarita » 11 Sep 2020 08:41

Looks like Chincom foreign minister and EAM Jayshankar have reached some kind of a break through. Can the gurus please decode:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... loh4H.html

I can bet you ModiJi haters including the Pappus and Crooklaws, as also super hawks like Brahma Chellaney and Bharat Karnard will pooh pooh this, but I am optimistic.

I am not Dhothi shivering, but heard none other than retd. general Jaswal say that we are spending upwards of Rs. 100 crore (or is it 150) per day in Eastern Ladakh confronting the Chincoms. This is unsustainable and will ruin India IMO. I wish both sides cut a face saving deal and move on. Enough of this nonsense.


Sounds a bit like 'not a blade of grass grows there". That's not the stuff civilizations are made of.

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4891
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby chola » 11 Sep 2020 09:03

Eh, not unexpected. I didn't have high expections that the chinis will fight. Unless we bring the fight to them, it wouldn't happen. Hopefully we keep manning the high places we took.

Roop
BRFite
Posts: 389
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Roop » 11 Sep 2020 09:06

Anujan wrote:The only possible move for them is to get into a short sharp conflict, kill a few Indians, declare victory and declare unilateral ceasefire.


And you think this would "work" for them because... why???

Your scenario would only work for the Chinese if India meekly and obediently acquiesced in this garbage and said, "Oh, okay, we have suffered huge casualties but now the Chinese have declared victory and withdrawn, I guess we should just bury/cremate our dead, stand down our military forces and meekly pay tribute to China".

What is there, in the observed behaviour of the Modi govt and the Indian military, that makes you think this would be an "acceptable" (to India) outcome of this months-old clash? The heavy deployment of IA, IAF and IN was what? A joke? A bluff?

Let me give some of my thoughts here. PM Modi has shown (over and over) that he means business -- he will not take this bullsh!t lying down. If deadly force is used against India, we will respond with deadly force anywhere and at any time we choose (and believe me, the "any time" part doesn't mean we'll have to wait long for India's reaction). China can pull this ch*tiya crap that you postulate and expect that India will meekly accept it, but we will massively disappoint their expectations/assumptions. Under the scenario you postulated, Chinese positions in Depsang, air bases in Tibet and ships in the IOR will learn what it means to have the hostile attention of a competent military force that can, and will, fight back. No longer will they be facing Vietnamese and Phillipino fishing vessels, but armed warships of a supremely professional Navy that actually knows how to fight and is not intimidated.

Your "scenario", and attendant assumptions that we would meekly acquiesce in this Chinese reckless lunacy, are just panicky FUD. What you're really saying is, "I'm scared, I'm nervous, I'm shivering in my dhoti. I'm telling you, the Chinese are going to pull some cunning trick on us and get away with it. I just have this awful feeling in my gut". Well, that feeling in your gut is probably just your lunch -- take some antacid pills. Time to grow a backbone and a pair of b@lls and face the enemy with courage and without panic.

Raghunathgb
BRFite
Posts: 149
Joined: 23 Apr 2019 18:16

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Raghunathgb » 11 Sep 2020 09:16

I see this conflict with China on a more positive note. Without this conflict we would have been busy importing all Chinese goods and it seemed like there was no stop to it. This conflict has made India rethink of its FTA with south east Asian countries who were milking us in the name of free trade agreements. Yes there will be few billion dollars spent if the conflict is dragged for a year. However it is paid handsomely by reduced Indian imports. After all we have 538 billion dollars in forex. So even of 10 billion dollar is spent it will be a drop in ocean and will give us immense respect in global community for standing up to a bully. Have we noted how many billions we donate each year. So let's stop thinking on cost for now.

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21175
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Prem » 11 Sep 2020 09:22

ramana wrote:CRS why do you watch those has been experts and raise your BP?

BRF years are wasted if some one still watch Desai and BC to take them seriously .

ks_sachin
BRFite
Posts: 1545
Joined: 24 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: Sydney

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ks_sachin » 11 Sep 2020 09:29

VinodTK wrote:Nothing against your CRamS

Maybe it is time to die with honor rather than always saying there is no money and we cannot fund the armed forces needs. What is the point of all the development if the country cannot defend itself!
How come there is always money for farm loan wavers and subsadies from A through Z


I don't want our boys and girls to die for my country. I want them to help the Chinese die for their country!!!

mihir.mehta
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 37
Joined: 09 Sep 2020 11:11

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby mihir.mehta » 11 Sep 2020 09:32

mihir.mehta wrote:Deleted


@Suraj, Why was this post deleted. I think this was where i had put a comment about Doklam ? - in reponse to Ramana's comments
There was no rant here. Besides - ppl are entitled to their opinions.

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1359
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Deans » 11 Sep 2020 09:43

Karan M wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:Rs. 150 Cr works out to about $7.5 billion a year. I think India can do just that for at least a few years and it would also spend more to quickly build road infrastructure and airports in the border states. Yes, expensive, but less than 0.2% of GDP. It would signal to China not invest too much in western and southern Tibet in terms of military capacity since it will result in very little for them. India simply has too many people and assets in the border to make it worth their while.


High initial costs are always there in the initial phases of a deployment. Once infra is set up, stabilizes, costs come down to a lower threshold.


Correct. This is not a point understood by most of the media, or even the retired general types who have doom and gloom messages.
I have several concerns about the effectiveness of our defence spending (e.g. pensions) but the deployment in Ladakh is not one of them.

The cost may well be 100 (or 200 cr) a day. Almost all of that is for infrastructure which has to be built at some point. Some of it - like roads, have a multiplier effect on the economy (by increasing tourism). All the infrastructure spend should get apportioned over a number of years and a large part of it is not in the defense budget. If for e.g. movement from Leh to DBO now takes much less time, that is a saving not just fuel, but in man hours. That does not get factored into the `returns' part of the cost equation - e.g if 10 crore of spend on road, helps save X man hours of our jawans who would otherwise be sitting unproductively in a truck and the value of that saving (in terms of their `cost to army') is 2 crore p.a, the return of 20% is justified). The deployment does not increase the size of the army or expenditure on firepower, over what has been budgeted.

30 years ago there was a fear that Siachen deployment would bankrupt the army, then it was the cost of stationing a whole division in the Kargil area.

vimal
BRFite
Posts: 641
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby vimal » 11 Sep 2020 09:50

If we have the whole Pangong-TSO lake along with Kailash mansarovar then the tourism alone will pay for the money invested in this area. Imagine camping and kayaking at P-TSO lake and then hiking up to Kailash. What a great memorable vacation. Jai Shiv Shankar.

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4322
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby KLNMurthy » 11 Sep 2020 09:54

mihir.mehta wrote:
pankajs wrote:^^
We will hear on that soon enough given what Shiv Aroor has hinted in one on his tweets that I had posted on the last page. He seemed to be suggesting re-adjustment in the Dumchule/Domcheck area.

What is heartening to hear is that GOI, once it made up its mind to counter the Chinese, it has gone about it in a systematic way and across the board step by step. I am not complaining!


This is my first post - Thanks Admin for adding me.
I just hope India has a clear strategic objective. Are we going to sit on some of these tops should the Chinese agree to go back. At the end of this all - where does India want to be. Do we have that clarity.

That whole strategic thinking is missing i believe. Everybody is talking about PLA's concern about their highway G219, we hardly hear anybody talking about giving depth to DSDBO road or the road along the Indus south of Pangong near Fukche-Demchog.

What do we do to ensure that (assuming this is sorted amicably) Chinese don't do this in the future. Their economic capability to bear the cost is enormous. We just don't have the financial muscle to be in a prolonged conflict.


I don’t understand big words like Strategy, but it seems to me that essentially your views are the same as the Gobar Times line that India is weak, China is strong, and India mindlessly blundered into an untenable position with no thought as to why and to what purpose they are doing anything.

The Gobar Times conclusion is that India should just admit its mistake, beg pardon from the mighty Chinese, send all its LAC troops to re-education camp, and maybe shoot the Dalai Lama as proof of brotherly goodwill.

I’ll assume you don’t share that conclusion and share my way of looking at what India is doing.

If you have played chess, you know that there a middle game where the players play for position, called, funnily enough, “position play.”

This is position play, end game is nowhere in sight.

tsarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3263
Joined: 08 May 2006 13:44
Location: mumbai

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby tsarkar » 11 Sep 2020 09:58

I seriously hope leadership + bureaucracy + military do not vacate any ridgelines & heights for "de-escalation" since now that the Chinese know the Indian response, they'll start by occupying these ridgelines & highpoints next time.

Like Kargil, we dont have any option remaining but to occupy all ridgelines and heights all year round given repeated Chinese attempts to occupy them when we trust them and de-escalate

Luytens is infested with Track 2 chaps like Aspen India Group and Ottawa Dialogue. And we've done enough self goals in the past by giving away Haji Pir at Tashkent and other advantages during the Shimla Agreement of 1972

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13757
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Suraj » 11 Sep 2020 10:03

mihir.mehta wrote:
mihir.mehta wrote:Deleted


@Suraj, Why was this post deleted. I think this was where i had put a comment about Doklam ? - in reponse to Ramana's comments
There was no rant here. Besides - ppl are entitled to their opinions.

There’s no entitlement here , I’m afraid . Posting here is a privilege and noise gets deleted . Please use the forum feedback thread for questions like these and avoid posts like the one deleted.

mihir.mehta
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 37
Joined: 09 Sep 2020 11:11

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby mihir.mehta » 11 Sep 2020 10:13

Deans wrote:
Karan M wrote:
High initial costs are always there in the initial phases of a deployment. Once infra is set up, stabilizes, costs come down to a lower threshold.


Correct. This is not a point understood by most of the media, or even the retired general types who have doom and gloom messages.
I have several concerns about the effectiveness of our defence spending (e.g. pensions) but the deployment in Ladakh is not one of them.

The cost may well be 100 (or 200 cr) a day. Almost all of that is for infrastructure which has to be built at some point. Some of it - like roads, have a multiplier effect on the economy (by increasing tourism). All the infrastructure spend should get apportioned over a number of years and a large part of it is not in the defense budget. If for e.g. movement from Leh to DBO now takes much less time, that is a saving not just fuel, but in man hours. That does not get factored into the `returns' part of the cost equation - e.g if 10 crore of spend on road, helps save X man hours of our jawans who would otherwise be sitting unproductively in a truck and the value of that saving (in terms of their `cost to army') is 2 crore p.a, the return of 20% is justified). The deployment does not increase the size of the army or expenditure on firepower, over what has been budgeted.

30 years ago there was a fear that Siachen deployment would bankrupt the army, then it was the cost of stationing a whole division in the Kargil area.


True. Also - I think in a few years time - once the rail line to Srinagar is ready - that route would be more preferable for supplies to Ladakh than the Manali route. From the plains all the way to Srinagar - transport by train will be cheaper, faster, safer, less polluting.

Also - the Srinagar - Leh route is much easier with only 2 treacherous patches - Zoji-La - Mattayan & the area around Lamayuru - otherwise the route is fairly easy. Manali-Leh - is tough till the Tanglang La crossing. WIth the Atal tunnel - its a bit easier.

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4322
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby KLNMurthy » 11 Sep 2020 10:26

Suraj wrote:If PRC asks TSP for help, it makes PRC look weak to TSP - "wait, you're not the deeper than the tallest mountain, taller than the deepest ocean big brother keeping us safe from India anymore ?? You want *us* to help *you* deal with India ?"

And it makes them both look like a pair of rogues willfully conspiring towards war if that conversation is intercepted and leaked. That would not help them much at all, given that they've been leaking confidential internal conversation like a sieve lately.

Don't think about this from win vs lose alone. Think about what a bully must do in order to maintain his aura. China fundamentally needs to assert clear dominance. If it fails, or looks weak in how it does things, it emboldens multiple other enemies. China problem is not about the specifics of winning/losing as much as the fact that having turned to wolf warrior approach it cannot afford to look weak, either to friend or to foe. Their main goal is to not look weak.

When Afghans with US support ousted the FSU from Afghanistan, with Pakis playing messenger boy, that didn’t Pakis from getting their heads swollen with the delusion that they alone brought down the FSU. That led directly to 9/11 and all the mess that followed.

So, Sugarland asking for Paki help against India will have a hundred times that head-swelling effect on Pakis. Poof goes any CPEC racket, and China will be lucky if mujahids didn’t start going after Xinjiang. (If they don’t, RAW could nudge them). But this scenario will happen only if India loses to s Cheeni-paki axis.

But I think that’s an unlikely contingency. If we arr strong enough to take on China alone, adding a Pakistan isn’t going to place that much of a higher demand to take us out of our factor of safety zone.

manjgu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2483
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 10:33

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby manjgu » 11 Sep 2020 10:31

samirdiw wrote:
He is also believed to have told Wang that the Indian Army never tried to transgress the LAC, refuting a frequent Chinese allegation.


This bullshit has not stopped? The Chinese never apologize when they enter any area what they consider is their territory, this side of LAC or that side. Then why is Jaishankar bending over backwards? If we treat LAC like IB then why not just draw the border there instead of fooling the Indian people.


sorry...no side admits to crossing the LAC..i dont see any bending. jaishankar is merely stating indian position on the matter...

bharathp
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 90
Joined: 24 Jul 2017 03:44

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby bharathp » 11 Sep 2020 10:34

the 5 point agreement between EAM and Wang cites that India and China will have to withdraw simultaneously. How many times has this line been used and how many times have the chinese done this in the last 30 days? The fact that India wont back off until china does seems to have been lost in translation.
1) which other country in china's periphery can say that to the Chinese? (apart from maybe russia!)
2) I have no doubt that the chinese wont back off after all these circus acts. why will they back off now? it will only embolden India if that happens (look, chinese went back without us having to fight!)

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2020 10:37

tsarkar wrote:I seriously hope leadership + bureaucracy + military do not vacate any ridgelines & heights for "de-escalation" since now that the Chinese know the Indian response, they'll start by occupying these ridgelines & highpoints next time.

Like Kargil, we dont have any option remaining but to occupy all ridgelines and heights all year round given repeated Chinese attempts to occupy them when we trust them and de-escalate

Luytens is infested with Track 2 chaps like Aspen India Group and Ottawa Dialogue. And we've done enough self goals in the past by giving away Haji Pir at Tashkent and other advantages during the Shimla Agreement of 1972
Has been my worry too as noted few posts back.

We have given out our defensive plans and our capacity to execute it too. Now they will specifically plan/target it next time to beat us to those objectives.

I too support a Kargil like round the year posts of the ridge-line both on the north and south of the Pangang tso areas.

BUT it is India which is keen to restore status quo from way back that could only mean India vacating all new positions. GOI needs to think hard.

However, it is early days and there are minefields on the path to disengagement. Plus once cannnot rule out baki like tactical brilliance that will lead to the collapse of the process.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2020 10:42

vimal wrote:If we have the whole Pangong-TSO lake along with Kailash mansarovar then the tourism alone will pay for the money invested in this area. Imagine camping and kayaking at P-TSO lake and then hiking up to Kailash. What a great memorable vacation. Jai Shiv Shankar.

Lets keep that as a nice to have long-term plan.

Prem Kumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2658
Joined: 31 Mar 2009 00:10

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Prem Kumar » 11 Sep 2020 10:43

Anujan wrote:The only possible move for them is to get into a short sharp conflict, kill a few Indians, declare victory and declare unilateral ceasefire. I fear that casualties are going to be worse than Kargil.

My heart goes out to the bravehearts manning the cold heights.


My fear too. This is where we hopefully abandon all thoughts of "proportional retaliation". Their 1st salvo, if/when it comes, is likely to be overwhelming.

Our response should be disproportionate both in terms of kill ratio & in terms of type/volume of firepower used. Importantly, we should end it. Not let them get away with some sort of unilateral ceasefire. We should cease our fire, when we have taught them a big enough lesson.

Its becoming clear that we have to start treating the Chinese like the way we've started treating Pakis. We kill 10 Pakis for each loss of ours, blow up their staging areas, border posts etc. We also controlled the escalation ladder by bringing in the IAF in Balakot. These approaches have seriously upset their wargaming calculations. Will work with China too.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8100
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nachiket » 11 Sep 2020 10:45

I do not think the present government is one which will ask the Army to withdraw from any positions they want to keep occupying for tactical reasons. They will leave such decisions to the Army itself. Not to be too political but we're not in the UPA era anymore.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2020 10:47

Raghunathgb wrote:I see this conflict with China on a more positive note. Without this conflict we would have been busy importing all Chinese goods and it seemed like there was no stop to it. This conflict has made India rethink of its FTA with south east Asian countries who were milking us in the name of free trade agreements. Yes there will be few billion dollars spent if the conflict is dragged for a year. However it is paid handsomely by reduced Indian imports. After all we have 538 billion dollars in forex. So even of 10 billion dollar is spent it will be a drop in ocean and will give us immense respect in global community for standing up to a bully. Have we noted how many billions we donate each year. So let's stop thinking on cost for now.

All crisis are opportunities ... to improve and grow.

While the economic angle is important, the military angle is important too. A major conflict was in the offering and while Modi was aware of it while CON was blissfully asleep, he too was lulled into thinking it was way off. This has or should act as a wake up call and start preparation in earnest.

At least that is my hope.

arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3939
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby arshyam » 11 Sep 2020 10:47

mihir.mehta wrote:
Deans wrote:
Correct. This is not a point understood by most of the media, or even the retired general types who have doom and gloom messages.
I have several concerns about the effectiveness of our defence spending (e.g. pensions) but the deployment in Ladakh is not one of them.

The cost may well be 100 (or 200 cr) a day. Almost all of that is for infrastructure which has to be built at some point. Some of it - like roads, have a multiplier effect on the economy (by increasing tourism). All the infrastructure spend should get apportioned over a number of years and a large part of it is not in the defense budget. If for e.g. movement from Leh to DBO now takes much less time, that is a saving not just fuel, but in man hours. That does not get factored into the `returns' part of the cost equation - e.g if 10 crore of spend on road, helps save X man hours of our jawans who would otherwise be sitting unproductively in a truck and the value of that saving (in terms of their `cost to army') is 2 crore p.a, the return of 20% is justified). The deployment does not increase the size of the army or expenditure on firepower, over what has been budgeted.

30 years ago there was a fear that Siachen deployment would bankrupt the army, then it was the cost of stationing a whole division in the Kargil area.


True. Also - I think in a few years time - once the rail line to Srinagar is ready - that route would be more preferable for supplies to Ladakh than the Manali route. From the plains all the way to Srinagar - transport by train will be cheaper, faster, safer, less polluting.

Also - the Srinagar - Leh route is much easier with only 2 treacherous patches - Zoji-La - Mattayan & the area around Lamayuru - otherwise the route is fairly easy. Manali-Leh - is tough till the Tanglang La crossing. WIth the Atal tunnel - its a bit easier.

Someone (Deans or tsarkar?) had clarified that the Manali-Leh route even today is not used much for replenishment given the time it takes and the multiple passes that need to navigated. It's rather used for de-induction like activities, while the main route is still via Srinagar-Zoji La-Kargil. One hopes the new route via Nimmoo-Padam-Darcha would be a more viable and alternative option (for both fronts in a crunch), given its relatively easier terrain and only one tunnel under Rohtang pass, which is also ready. Gen Anbu had mentioned in one of his talks about the need for a tunnel near Lumayuru, which would add to the all-weather connectivity.

SidSoma
BRFite
Posts: 144
Joined: 16 Feb 2018 15:09

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SidSoma » 11 Sep 2020 10:49

tsarkar wrote:I seriously hope leadership + bureaucracy + military do not vacate any ridgelines & heights for "de-escalation" since now that the Chinese know the Indian response, they'll start by occupying these ridgelines & highpoints next time.

Like Kargil, we dont have any option remaining but to occupy all ridgelines and heights all year round given repeated Chinese attempts to occupy them when we trust them and de-escalate

Luytens is infested with Track 2 chaps like Aspen India Group and Ottawa Dialogue. And we've done enough self goals in the past by giving away Haji Pir at Tashkent and other advantages during the Shimla Agreement of 1972


Lets look at it from the other side as well. This incident has given us a clear insight into the Chinese Modus operandi and the depth of their appetite for a conflict. We also know their movements and their supply lines. I am pretty sure that all this was studied and the response was communsurate with it. We now know how much Russian intelligence is to be trusted. How Chinese 'exercises' are to be monitored and the quality of their soldiers.

I believe Indian army has displayed that it is smarter than the enemy and we are forcing them to either lose their strategic objective or cross their self imposed line of winning their objectives without a firefight.

I have no reason to believe that such a smart army can be taken for a ride .....

"Like Kargil, we dont have any option remaining but to occupy all ridgelines and heights all year round given repeated Chinese attempts to occupy them when we trust them and de-escalate"


its going to be a cat and mouse game..... We just need some kicka$$ ISR and Infra in that area, so that the chinks find it difficult to surprise us.

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4322
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby KLNMurthy » 11 Sep 2020 10:50

V_Raman wrote:Other way to think about this is that this ties India down without resorting to any mischief while China takes on USA. This is chump change for them to achieve that.

Except that it is based on a stupid assumption that India would have gotten involved in a US war with China.

By making that idiotic and ignorant assumption and acting on it, they have turned India from a neutral power to a hostile power, making it more likely to work with the US against China.

These are the people we are supposed yo fear?

sum
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10098
Joined: 08 May 2007 17:04
Location: (IT-vity && DRDO) nagar

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby sum » 11 Sep 2020 10:51

^^ For whoever interested, Trishul blogspot has a new article on the SFF. Very , very long one but lots and lots of info.

Very interesting read to know about all our efforts to use SFF and the missions they undertook within Tibet etc

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2020 10:53

On the deescalation ... the current agreement seems broad, generic in nature and the details will need to be filled in during some future marathon negotiations.

So it is not a done deal yet but just an expression of interest. And on a Global stage one usually takes a conciliatory rather than a strident position.

This is still an unfolding situation.


Return to “Military Issues & History Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 42 guests