India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby mihir.mehta » 11 Sep 2020 10:58

arshyam wrote:Someone (Deans or tsarkar?) had clarified that the Manali-Leh route even today is not used much for replenishment given the time it takes and the multiple passes that need to navigated. It's rather used for de-induction like activities, while the main route is still via Srinagar-Zoji La-Kargil. One hopes the new route via Nimmoo-Padam-Darcha would be a more viable and alternative option (for both fronts in a crunch), given its relatively easier terrain and only one tunnel under Rohtang pass, which is also ready. Gen Anbu had mentioned in one of his talks about the need for a tunnel near Lumayuru, which would add to the all-weather connectivity.


Let me clarify - i meant - not just military replenishment of arms and ammunition - but also other supplies (restocking). Thousands of trucks do use the Manali-Leh route still.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby arshyam » 11 Sep 2020 11:02

pankajs wrote:On the deescalation ... the current agreement seems broad, generic in nature and the details will need to be filled in during some future marathon negotiations.

So it is not a done deal yet but just an expression of interest. And on a Global stage one usually takes a conciliatory rather than a strident position.

This is still an unfolding situation.

It also depends on how much "pull" Wang Yi has within the CPC establishment. Given the PLA's WTC itself is issuing press updates, and the CMC now directly overseeing the border, I am not sure any agreement between the EAMs would lead to any movement. In any case, that "five-point" statement seemed more like a marking time for chai-biskoot statement, i.e. nothing new.

Does anyone know who all constitute the CMC? Unlike our CCS, the CMC seems to be a purely military body, and Wang Yi is not listed being a part of it.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby banrjeer » 11 Sep 2020 11:28

Karan M wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:Rs. 150 Cr works out to about $7.5 billion a year. I think India can do just that for at least a few years and it would also spend more to quickly build road infrastructure and airports in the border states. Yes, expensive, but less than 0.2% of GDP. It would signal to China not invest too much in western and southern Tibet in terms of military capacity since it will result in very little for them. India simply has too many people and assets in the border to make it worth their while.


High initial costs are always there in the initial phases of a deployment. Once infra is set up, stabilizes, costs come down to a lower threshold.



Pretty cheap investment vs then nation building risk and expense of the the US and colonial Britain. Chini have tricked and managed to redirect the flow of capital back to themselves after a few centuries. Only India lags.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby V_Raman » 11 Sep 2020 11:32

KLNMurthy wrote:
V_Raman wrote:Other way to think about this is that this ties India down without resorting to any mischief while China takes on USA. This is chump change for them to achieve that.

Except that it is based on a stupid assumption that India would have gotten involved in a US war with China.

By making that idiotic and ignorant assumption and acting on it, they have turned India from a neutral power to a hostile power, making it more likely to work with the US against China.

These are the people we are supposed yo fear?


Well this will pause India from making a play for Gilgit-Baltistan - that is good insurance for CPEC.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Suraj » 11 Sep 2020 11:33

KLNMurthy wrote:When Afghans with US support ousted the FSU from Afghanistan, with Pakis playing messenger boy, that didn’t Pakis from getting their heads swollen with the delusion that they alone brought down the FSU. That led directly to 9/11 and all the mess that followed.

So, Sugarland asking for Paki help against India will have a hundred times that head-swelling effect on Pakis. Poof goes any CPEC racket, and China will be lucky if mujahids didn’t start going after Xinjiang. (If they don’t, RAW could nudge them). But this scenario will happen only if India loses to s Cheeni-paki axis.

But I think that’s an unlikely contingency. If we arr strong enough to take on China alone, adding a Pakistan isn’t going to place that much of a higher demand to take us out of our factor of safety zone.

Of course. And the Hans will face the result of the head swelling first thing. Put yourself in TSP's position. They're literally borrowing from Chinese Peter to pay Saudi Paul lately. Suddenly great mightly Middle Kingdom comes to them for help. First thing they'd do is demand CPEC debts be erased, free milk and honey and that would be the start. The Chinese aren't stupid as to let the kept canine get too emboldened. It means they'd never be able to deal with TSP the same way again.

That is essentially the power dynamic a bully has to deal with. To understand TSP and PRC, one must think from a bully's perspective and discard our own conditioned world view that has absolutely no relation to this. China is a bully. TSP is also a bully. Bullies deal in the currency of the appearance of power, established through careful acts of bravado and control over levers of freedom of the other. TSP willingly does GUBO to the extend that Chinese bully's actions help them.

The moment China asks them for help, that dynamic falls apart, and China then will have to figure out how to later take TSP behind the barn and soundly thrash them . And no, PRC cannot easily threaten to take away freebies now if TSP doesn't help - that will make TSP instead go to its other sugar daddies. Or TSP will threaten PRC's Xinjiang as you said. One thing I'll give TSP credit for, they are very good at negotiating like a bully.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby putnanja » 11 Sep 2020 11:33

Baba's and other twitter handlers reporting that chinese tried to intrude into finger 3 area yesterday night when the FMs of India china were meeting.

#BREAKING : At the time when the foreign ministers of India and China were talking in Russia last night , at the same time PLA tried to move its troops towards Finger 3 of Pangong Tso. The Indian Army has foiled the infiltration attempt. (Sources)

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Rsatchi » 11 Sep 2020 11:41

arshyam wrote:
pankajs wrote:On the deescalation ... the current agreement seems broad, generic in nature and the details will need to be filled in during some future marathon negotiations.

So it is not a done deal yet but just an expression of interest. And on a Global stage one usually takes a conciliatory rather than a strident position.

This is still an unfolding situation.

It also depends on how much "pull" Wang Yi has within the CPC establishment. Given the PLA's WTC itself is issuing press updates, and the CMC now directly overseeing the border, I am not sure any agreement between the EAMs would lead to any movement. In any case, that "five-point" statement seemed more like a marking time for chai-biskoot statement, i.e. nothing new.

Does anyone know who all constitute the CMC? Unlike our CCS, the CMC seems to be a purely military body, and Wang Yi is not listed being a part of it.

As per Wiki Chacha the 2015 Military reforms order by Xi 15 departments within it created but all very secretive n the Party Congress a rubber stamp approving Xi's order. So in effect all presumably handpicked by Xi to sit on it!!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby AshishA » 11 Sep 2020 11:45

Okay one layman question. Why do the brigade commanders of both countries keep meeting under these situations? I mean what do they even talk in those meetings? Accuse each other of violating agreements and peace? I don't get what's the need for Chai-Biskoot session for armies. Isn't that diplomat's job?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2020 11:52

They work on modalities or SOP to maintain peace even while they jockey to enhance their respective positions. Also used as a forum to communicate messages face to face.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby mihir.mehta » 11 Sep 2020 12:18

Some interesting details here: https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... s-6591327/
The Finger 4 knuckle is called Green Top, and it is where the PLA troops are stationed. From this position, they have a dominant view of India’s Dhan Singh Thapa Post, just west of Finger 3, near the base.

About 1 km north of Green Top is another height called Pimple. The PLA has occupied this as well. The knuckle of Finger 3 is around 1 km northwest from Pimple, and this is the stretch where the situation is tense, according to sources in the security establishment.

Sources said Indian forces have been trying to get to the top of Finger 3, but are being prevented by the large number of PLA troops close to it. Indian troops, sources said, have made at least two attempts over the last few days to dominate the top of Finger 3, only to come up against a show of flags by PLA troops.

Army sources maintained that India is in a dominant position as it has occupied heights to the north and west of PLA positions.

He said Chinese troops are occupying the Finger 4 ridgeline at four different heights, and that “we have also occupied multiple features and are dominating”.

A source said: “The assessment was that sooner than later, the Chinese would descend to cut off our access to Dhan Singh Thapa Post. We had to make sure they were blocked. Now along the entire Finger 3 ridge, Indian troop strength has been increased at different places to match the Chinese. Even on the mother ridge, we have increased our strength.”

“We are also holding some positions of great advantage above Finger 3. From some of these, we have a clear sight of Fingers 6 and 7 which are currently under Chinese control. Earlier, these fell in the shadow area for us,” the source said.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2020 12:31

^^
Going by the details in this report, likely positions

Green top: 33°44'16.41"N, 78°46'28.50"E
F4 Pimple: 33°44'47.32"N, 78°46'33.28"E
F3 Knuckle: 33°45'7.22"N, 78°45'56.17"E

Seems at F3 Knuckle, where the F3 ridge joins the main F4 ridge, the Indian and Chinese forces faceoff, the situation is tense and Indian forces are still trying to move past the Chinese forces at this point.

That accounts for 3 Chinese position on F4 ridge-line. Will have to locate the 4th.

We "may" have climbed the other ridge(s) and occupied position(s) further back of the Chinese position on F4 to its north. Also, seems we have occupied the F3 ridge in strength except for the F3 Knuckle.

We are on the "mother ridge" in strength that would be the main F4 ridge. Again confirming that we are behind all the 4 Chinese positions on F4 AND we have created multiple positions on F4.

So our main position are on F3 and further back of F4. Does not hint at any position to the east of F4.
Last edited by pankajs on 11 Sep 2020 12:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Denis » 11 Sep 2020 12:41

arshyam wrote:
mihir.mehta wrote:Someone (Deans or tsarkar?) had clarified that the Manali-Leh route even today is not used much for replenishment given the time it takes and the multiple passes that need to navigated. It's rather used for de-induction like activities, while the main route is still via Srinagar-Zoji La-Kargil. One hopes the new route via Nimmoo-Padam-Darcha would be a more viable and alternative option (for both fronts in a crunch), given its relatively easier terrain and only one tunnel under Rohtang pass, which is also ready. Gen Anbu had mentioned in one of his talks about the need for a tunnel near Lumayuru, which would add to the all-weather connectivity.


It was me who had posted that earlier. Both the Srinagar Leh route and the Manali Leh route are single lane roads for most part. Both the routes are closed for close to 6 months. So in Summer, there is a rush to induct new troops and weapons from peace areas / plains, de-induct troops having completed their Siachin / LOC / LAC tenure back to plains, and also winter stocking not only from military perspective but also from civilian perspective (Leh/Kargil + major towns and villages in these areas + Lahaul Spiti). Since the roads are mostly single lane, to manage all this, Leh Manali is mostly used to de-induct troops and Srinagar - Leh for induction of troops and winter stocking. The reason Srnagar route is used for induction is that it is much closer to rail heads of Jalandhar, Pathankot and Jammu Tawi. Also this route has only one bad patch (Zozila). Once you cross it, you are in rain shadow zone. In fact, once Zozila tunnel is made, this will allow 24x7 access. The incline is gentler and it is good for acclimatising people as no high elevation passes need to be crossed.

On the Padam Darcha Nimo road, the good news is that, it had been opened for military use. Connectivity has been made on the entire stretch and barring 30 KMs area around Shinku La, there is a double lane black top road on both sides. This 30 KM stretch can be done by 4x4 and higher drive vehicles including heavy vehicles. The tunnel of around 7 KMs will take 3 years to build and this 30 KM stretch will be a relic. So Yes, this axis has been made operational. Since this winter Atal tunnel will be open, we can replenish our forces for most part of winters by routine snow clearing and road opening operations on this 30 KM stretch. Not an ideal thing, but better then where we were last year.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby jamwal » 11 Sep 2020 13:10

mihir.mehta wrote:
arshyam wrote:Someone (Deans or tsarkar?) had clarified that the Manali-Leh route even today is not used much for replenishment given the time it takes and the multiple passes that need to navigated. It's rather used for de-induction like activities, while the main route is still via Srinagar-Zoji La-Kargil. One hopes the new route via Nimmoo-Padam-Darcha would be a more viable and alternative option (for both fronts in a crunch), given its relatively easier terrain and only one tunnel under Rohtang pass, which is also ready. Gen Anbu had mentioned in one of his talks about the need for a tunnel near Lumayuru, which would add to the all-weather connectivity.


Let me clarify - i meant - not just military replenishment of arms and ammunition - but also other supplies (restocking). Thousands of trucks do use the Manali-Leh route still.



OT. That's why ! :idea:
I had taken a lift in a civilian truck from Baralacha La to Rohtang area few years back. It was hired by a army unit which had just shifted to Laddakh. The driver had taken all their potted plants :lol: to the new deployment area through Jammu Kargil route and was going back via Rohtang - Manali route.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nam » 11 Sep 2020 13:31

Chini MoFA statements included that India consider it's regular relation with China will not be effected by the border dispute.

The Chinis are actually more worried about the economic and political effect of the standoff. Now they are really worried about loosing market access and India getting in to US camp.

Probably the biggest factor stopping any Chini attack is that irrespective of the result, India will become a permanent enemy, in the US camp, along with economic barriers for Chini companies.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby manjgu » 11 Sep 2020 13:35

Denis wrote:
arshyam wrote:


It was me who had posted that earlier. Both the Srinagar Leh route and the Manali Leh route are single lane roads for most part. Both the routes are closed for close to 6 months. So in Summer, there is a rush to induct new troops and weapons from peace areas / plains, de-induct troops having completed their Siachin / LOC / LAC tenure back to plains, and also winter stocking not only from military perspective but also from civilian perspective (Leh/Kargil + major towns and villages in these areas + Lahaul Spiti). Since the roads are mostly single lane, to manage all this, Leh Manali is mostly used to de-induct troops and Srinagar - Leh for induction of troops and winter stocking. The reason Srnagar route is used for induction is that it is much closer to rail heads of Jalandhar, Pathankot and Jammu Tawi. Also this route has only one bad patch (Zozila). Once you cross it, you are in rain shadow zone. In fact, once Zozila tunnel is made, this will allow 24x7 access. The incline is gentler and it is good for acclimatising people as no high elevation passes need to be crossed.

On the Padam Darcha Nimo road, the good news is that, it had been opened for military use. Connectivity has been made on the entire stretch and barring 30 KMs area around Shinku La, there is a double lane black top road on both sides. This 30 KM stretch can be done by 4x4 and higher drive vehicles including heavy vehicles. The tunnel of around 7 KMs will take 3 years to build and this 30 KM stretch will be a relic. So Yes, this axis has been made operational. Since this winter Atal tunnel will be open, we can replenish our forces for most part of winters by routine snow clearing and road opening operations on this 30 KM stretch. Not an ideal thing, but better then where we were last year.


what beats me is they didnt make a tunnel thru zoji la after 1999 ..shows the lack of strategic culture in indian govt. the srinagar leh road is actually v good now... innova etc often do 90-100 kmph on these roads...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pushkar.bhat » 11 Sep 2020 13:36

Rishirishi wrote:
China used to care too much about India's dignity. Such dignity has eventually been taken advantage by Indian nationalist forces. They have forgotten who they are. This time, everything should be put on the table. If India wants peace, China and India should uphold the LAC of November 7, 1959. If India wants war, China will oblige. Let's see which country can outlast the other.


[url]
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1200560.shtml[/url]

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/47/Aksai_Chin_Sino-Indian_border_map.png

Does this mean the Chinese accept the 1959 line???? It must be a bargain for India.


They are asking for Arunachal or South Tibet as they call it in return. Not a bargain. This proposal was tabled by Zhou Enlai during the pappi jhappi days to Banditji. So the proposal is a non starter and dead on arrival.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nam » 11 Sep 2020 13:40

The standoff needs to continue.. It is not in our interest to have regular relationship with the Chinis.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby jamwal » 11 Sep 2020 13:43

Not 1959, but 1949 with China out of Tibet.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2020 13:48

The 1959 offer is not really an offer even on its own. It is just a way to entice India to the table and plug the drift in the relationship in with a show of "concession".

Only to give China time till they are ready to stike a decisive blow on India.

Ploy to buy time while keeping India neutral til they are ready for us.

But is does seem to suggest that leadership in China does accept it's recent push as a tactical blunder. Of course Xi/China can do not wrong.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2020 13:52

nam wrote:The standoff needs to continue.. It is not in our interest to have regular relationship with the Chinis.

Relationship.is broken. One can fool Modi once but not a second time. That much credit must go to Modi from all my experience looking at his actions.

So while progress on the boder might soften him, he will never forget that China punched him in the face and he will plan to pay back some day.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Pratyush » 11 Sep 2020 13:58

KLNMurthy wrote:
V_Raman wrote:Other way to think about this is that this ties India down without resorting to any mischief while China takes on USA. This is chump change for them to achieve that.

Except that it is based on a stupid assumption that India would have gotten involved in a US war with China.

By making that idiotic and ignorant assumption and acting on it, they have turned India from a neutral power to a hostile power, making it more likely to work with the US against China.

These are the people we are supposed yo fear?


I have never understood this aspect of CCP thinking. That pushing India regularly and nibbling Indian territory will get them a neutral India.

If the want Indian neutrality in any future conflict with United States. The simplest way to achieve that would be to make sure that following conditions are met.

1) at minimum, grant sufficient autonomy to Tibet that his holiness Dalai Lama can reside in Lahsa with total freedom.
1a) maximum, total independence for Tibet.
2) of it is position 1 then pull out of Aksai chin and recognise it as Indian land. Once that is done we can in the spirit of panchsheel accommodate PRC road traffic on the g 219. Which will now be renamed as per Indian National highways naming convention. It is 1a this step doesn't have to happen.
3) given up all claims on Arunachal Pradesh.
4) share their claim line and and we can in the spirit of coexistence make adjustments here and there.

But we don't see CCP doing any of this. Instead every year they push and nibble on Indian land.

They are the biggest idiots in the world. Hitler was a strategic genius compared to the blithering idiots that populate CCP.

PS the stupidity of Hitler lost him the war both in East and West. When he invaded USSR and declared was on the United States post Perl Harbor. The Communist Bandits are worst then Hitler.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Aditya_V » 11 Sep 2020 14:09

They are bullies and think like Hitler, Hitler expected Britain to sue for peace after the Batlle of Britain and the Blitz- the Chinese are doing a similair ploy with us. '

From a Bully perspective, you dont fight on morality but attack whoever is weak and show you are strong, the Chinese as MAO in the 1950's stated Tibet is the Palm of the Hand Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim , Bhutan and NEFA are its 5 fingers which CCP should capture. If sufficiently indoctrinated the PLA might still be pursuing this.

http://www.tibetanjournal.com/mao-described-tibet-right-palm-ladakh-sikkim-bhutan-nepal-arunachal-five-fingers/

Imagine if enough CCP and PLA are brainwashed this is what they might be aiming at.

Perhaps we have not understood the CCP who are the Tibet 5 fingers approach and will only back down if they get a very bloody nose, but it would be foolish for us to voluntarily climb up the ladder, war is unpredictable and thier will be Indian causualties, so unless forced on us , we will try and avoid it.
Last edited by Aditya_V on 11 Sep 2020 14:16, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Lohit » 11 Sep 2020 14:15

On the FM talks, let us firmly hammer this thought into our heads - any diplomatic or political "assurances" from China, at least for now are absolute BS. They only serve the purpose of creating a feint for mil maneuvers.

I also welcome the abandoning of "status quo ante" BS. Let us stick to the heights we have captured. Giving those up is unthinkable and let us grab more if we possibly can.

And now that we are in a position of strength, like the Pakis, we mist talk on "comprehensive agenda" to include human rights /democracy in Tibet, data related issues, maoist support and others including the "core agenda" of CCP support to Pakistan and CPEC.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshan » 11 Sep 2020 14:42

No such thing as neutral India that chinese are looking for. They are doing what they do best and that's to buy time to get back pliable India. They are essentially looking to minimize any long term gains by arrival of modi and co. No US angle involved. Similar to India they have many termites in US too. They won't worry about US till US voters send a clear message to chinese termites within US. Neutral India would have never figured in chinese game plan. Only pliable or broken India would have. Any alignment with US won't fix what's ailing India internally and making India pliable and weak. Lot of internal issues within India are caused by US itself to begin with. There's a long list of internal problems to be fixed and dealt with by Modi and any slowdown due to border issues will be an okay trade for chinese as they can wait out given that they are ruled by dictators.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Deans » 11 Sep 2020 15:16

vimal wrote:If we have the whole Pangong-TSO lake along with Kailash mansarovar then the tourism alone will pay for the money invested in this area. Imagine camping and kayaking at P-TSO lake and then hiking up to Kailash. What a great memorable vacation. Jai Shiv Shankar.


That is what the Bilaspur-Mandi-Leh rail line will do (which is what China has done with high speed rail in Tibet - tourism increased from 0.5 million to 30 million people per year). I wrote an article on it back in 2016 and happy that the right people took it seriously enough to get the project revived.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 11 Sep 2020 15:25

Joint Press Statement - Meeting of External Affairs Minister and the Foreign Minister of China (September 10, 2020)

September 10, 2020

H.E. Dr. S. Jaishankar, External Affairs Minister of India met H.E. Wang Yi, State Councillor and Foreign Minister of China on 10th September in Moscow on the side-lines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting. Both Ministers had a frank and constructive discussion on the developments in the India-China border areas as well as on India-China relations and agreed as follows:

1. The two Ministers agreed that both sides should take guidance from the series of consensus of the leaders on developing India-China relations, including not allowing differences to become disputes.

2. The two Foreign Ministers agreed that the current situation in the border areas is not in the interest of either side. They agreed therefore that the border troops of both sides should continue their dialogue, quickly disengage, maintain proper distance and ease tensions.

3. The two Ministers agreed that both sides shall abide by all the existing agreements and protocol on China-India boundary affairs, maintain peace and tranquillity in the border areas and avoid any action that could escalate matters.

4. The two sides also agreed to continue to have dialogue and communication through the Special Representative mechanism on the India-China boundary question. They also agreed in this context that the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China border affairs (WMCC), should also continue its meetings.

5. The Ministers agreed that as the situation eases, the two sides should expedite work to conclude new Confidence Building Measures to maintain and enhance peace and tranquillity in the border areas.

Moscow
September 10, 2020


The statement is notable for what it leaves out - specifics:

- No reference to LAC : Looks like both sides have recognised that given all that has happened on the ground in the past few weeks, LAC as it existed before April 2020 has no relevance now. And neither side is willing to consider the current respective positions as the "new/de facto" LAC.

- No reference to status quo ante: China has never agreed to it in the previous statements, India seems to have dropped this approach as well. Presumably because we are occupying better positions now, and are in no mood to give up.

- "Consensus of leaders" presumably refers to the outcome of Wuhan and Mamallapuram summits that have been far from consensual.

So this consensus part refers to no specific point, but actually points back to Xitler directly to take full responsibility for the current situation and his spurning of Modi's extended hand of friendship, saying one thing to Modi and doing something else, often hiding behind the rest of the Chinese establishment which keeps making statements contrary to what was discussed. Above all, it puts the spotlight on Xitler to own up to the consequences of what happens next.

- "Abide by all existing agreements" makes it clear who has not been abiding.

- More talks through SRs - Shri Doval & the same Wang Yi who discussed with S Jaishankar just now ? What will Wang do with Doval that he could not with SJ ? Looks like a good cop / bad cop routine.

- More talks through WMCC - Our Mil rep.s are clear that they won't back off, China Mil Reps/Commissars are remote controlled by CCP. At best this will prevent immediate escalation and keep some talking going on, but no breakthrough can be achieved unless Xitler decides to change some positions.

- CBMs - again very vague, and more talks will be needed between different levels to determine what these CBMs should be, even before coming to how to implement them in what timelines.

If immediate cooling down of the situation and pullback is expected, the outcome of these talks will not result in that. And thats actually quite OK. If China expected India to blink, that has not happened.

The purposefully vague references indicate that India is playing a different game now. We are telling them time is on our side, we are in no hurry. We will continue to take 1s and 2s in these middle overs, when winter power play starts we will have enough wickets in hand to hit the ball all the way to pacific sea board.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby rsingh » 11 Sep 2020 15:38

Agreed to not to agree.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby IndraD » 11 Sep 2020 15:53

https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/india/sto ... ssion=true
A state of highest alert is being maintained along the LAC in Ladakh with the Indian troops now matching the 50,000 troops that have been deployed by China.


Indian forces with an expertise in high altitude warfare are deployed in forward locations at Ladakh across friction points at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

The Indian Army has consolidated its forces and defences in the last few days with escalation on both northern and southern banks of the Pangong Lake, sources said.

Units specialising in mountain warfare are scattered across, but focus remains on Pangong Lake areas on north and south banks. The Chinese troops have made multiple attempts to dislodge Indian troops from the mountain heights.

“Movement of Chinese troops, vehicles and new defence of the Chinese army are visible in north and south banks of Pangong Lake. In some places heavily armed troops are in close proximity,” said an official.

The official further said that “highest alert” is being maintained. Describing the fragile ground situation, an official has said, “A little trigger could spiral the situation out of control.”

Sources have said the Chinese deployment of close to 50,000 is being matched by the Indian Army.

While the focus of the confrontation is Pangong Lake, not much has changed in other trouble spots. In the Gogra-Hot Springs areas, Depsang and Daulat Beg Oldie, the buildup continues but there has been no faceoff.


The ongoing standoff has been continuing for over four months and despite various levels of talks the deadlock continues. In fact since August 29, when there was a confrontation on the southern bank of Pangong Lake, the situation has become even more volatile with a fresh buildup of troops, weapons systems including tanks by both sides.


Since then, the Indian Army has occupied some crucial mountain heights both at the south and north of Pangong Lake that has prompted aggressive manoeuvres by the Chinese army.

With the Chinese resorting to firing gunshots in the air while trying to take over an Indian position north of Rezang La on September 7, Indian Army has also conveyed that it will respond in the same manner.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby manjgu » 11 Sep 2020 16:05

what does Xi tler have to show in the October meeting of Party? can he sell the present situation as a victory?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 11 Sep 2020 16:10

Xitler has purged all competing/contrary voices in the CCP and PLA since he came to power. He is in an echo chamber full of yes men now, and doesn't need to sell anything to anyone. This will be the cause of his downfall and that of CCP.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SSridhar » 11 Sep 2020 16:14

Xitler still has time. IMHO, there is dangerous period still ahead. Between now and the PLAGF actually begins withdrawing, we can still expect some surprise moves from them and should be on guard. The neo-Ladakh Panchsheel has a long way to go to implement, if at all it is implemented.

BTW, Xi hasn't been able to purge all opponents. Even the PSC has three likely opponents who have probably taken to Deng's 24-character exhortation of 'biding time . . .' etc.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 11 Sep 2020 16:31

The body language is telling !

Image
External affairs minister (EAM) S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi are seen in this photo.(HT Photo)

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Lohit » 11 Sep 2020 16:34

Hope next time Modi addresses nation he refers to Kailash parvat and our foreign policy works from this new reference point. Heck Chins themselves call Trans-Himalayas as Gangdise Shan ie Moutains of Ganga-desh. We have an absolute civilizational and historical right over all heights that overlook Tibet.

Like Pak which went on backfoot when we started talking about re-assimilating PoK similarly, we need to shift the conversation.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby rajpa » 11 Sep 2020 16:38

amar_p wrote:The body language is telling !

Image
External affairs minister (EAM) S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi are seen in this photo.(HT Photo)


manspreader vs womansplainer :mrgreen:

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshan » 11 Sep 2020 16:38

chinese can't be trusted about anything. Including their body language. They could be out there with begging bowl and on their knees but they still can't be trusted. Treachery is in their suntzhu.
After the Moscow meeting between the Indian and the Chinese Foreign Ministers, China releases statements not made by India
https://www.opindia.com/2020/09/china-r ... r-meeting/


Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2020 17:18

pankajs wrote:The 1959 offer is not really an offer even on its own. It is just a way to entice India to the table and plug the drift in the relationship in with a show of "concession".

Only to give China time till they are ready to stike a decisive blow on India.

Ploy to buy time while keeping India neutral til they are ready for us.


But is does seem to suggest that leadership in China does accept it's recent push as a tactical blunder. Of course Xi/China can do not wrong.

The Chinese might want to buy peace for a few weeks to a few months or a few years but they are going to come after Indian sooner or later. India needs to start preparing in earnest for a decisive battle on the LAC within a decade plus skirmishes in between.

The Chinese absolutely hold to their saying "One Mountain Cannot Contain Two Tigers" as an article of faith.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby shyamd » 11 Sep 2020 17:24

My reading of what's happened is they've agreed to 'disengage' to remove the threat of escalation, then thin out the troops over the next month or 2.

Problem is the process of 'disengagement' was actually agreed in detail previously by 2/3*s military discussions. The technical agreements need to be updated for the current situation given the number of troops/movements in troops/arms. All of this takes time.

IA has more of a bargaining chip with the recent military maneuvres so there is a greater chance of success in theory.

I suspect both sides will agree to replace the Brigadiers at some of the sectors... Let's see. This will play out over the next few months.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pushkar.bhat » 11 Sep 2020 17:26

Its best to avoid reading too much into the GT.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Davidrock » 11 Sep 2020 17:34

This is so good, locations of IA positions at heights on North Pangong tso

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/13 ... 64/photo/1

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby vivekmehta » 11 Sep 2020 17:41

They have lost there face , October meeting is critical to Xi .. now depending on his position in CCP a insecure Xi will look to escalate the situation as he knows that current Indian leadership will not take things in his way.
i have firm belief in current leadership ,they have best measure of Xi ambitions . most of times i feel they are reading him well. readjustments + strengthening of current positions on LAC will become a norm in coming days. i feel (readjustments + strengthening)= reclaiming of Indian territory from china will continue in small small portions.
Last edited by vivekmehta on 11 Sep 2020 17:49, edited 1 time in total.


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