India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

[rpartha]

Deleted.

Really?? This is BRF sir. Please think twice before posting such gems.

??? Pardon my ignorance... this is been discussed for a long time... no one says go and invade... in fact I have also correlated Sikkim here... I know during independence Bhutan wanted to be a sovereign state but given the new reality of China encroaching Bhutan territory and as an independent state we can do only so much.. I thought BRF should be the site to discuss it right??

[Y I Patel]

There is a very overt insinuation by vested interests that India needs external support to successfully deal with China. One major success in settling this issue without too much bloodshed will be a demonstration that India can push back China by itself. That would be a huge gain for India's international standing, and increase its bargaining power tremendously.

[schinnas]

The right of a nation to remain Independent isn't determined by if there is a bully around. It should be based on whether they have a unique culture and civilisation that can be self sustaining and flourish independently. Bhutan is such a unique kingdom and India should help it remain independent.

What may be needed is a treaty of protection and permanent stationing of Indian troops in Bhutan (at the pleasure of Bhutanese sovereign govt of course) to deter the Chinese from swallowing up Bhutan.

[rpartha]

The right of a nation to remain Independent isn't determined by if there is a bully around. It should be based on whether they have a unique culture and civilisation that can be self sustaining and flourish independently. Bhutan is such a unique kingdom and India should help it remain independent.

What may be needed is a treaty of protection and permanent stationing of Indian troops in Bhutan (at the pleasure of Bhutanese sovereign govt of course) to deter the Chinese from swallowing up Bhutan.

Agreed. And we have respected that till now... and in fact we have a treaty to protect them too... but this bully seems to be senseless... anyway let's see how it goes...

[Philip]

Without specifying or identifying individually the various programmes on the crisis and the very renowned generals,air marshals,admirals,diplomats, etc.,on our options,there are some new realities that have taken place which is tectonic in effect. I am briefly outlining the various conclusions upon which almost all are in agreement.

1.The so-called LAC has now been thrown into the dustbin in reality,even if at these innumerable talks both sides trot out their respective positions on the map,we can expect no meaningful response from the PRC which for decades has consistently REFUSED to spell out on the map what their perception of the LAC/ border is.They have deliberately kept it fluid in order to establish their physical linkage with Pak, now revealed as part of their OBOR/new Silk Road great game. Secondly,the control of Bhutan,Nepal,Sikkim replacing India as their protector.

2. The PRC has changed its previous tactics on the ground from previous quiet " skinching" or limited "border creep" ,where we were vulnerable or took our eye off the ball,to one of deceitful ,direct,outright hostility with a massive military build-up in all dimensions. Instead of border patrol and control,their forces are now prepared for an invasion of India all along the LAC/border from Ar.Pr. in the east to Ladakh in the west,and as we have seen over the last few months in Ladakh attempts to ingress into Indian territory in depth and with substantial force.

3.After the surprise attack at Galwan,our pro-active actions in taking heights overlooking the Pangong Tso indicates that we have also dumped our defensive policy which held sway for decades.

4.With both sides approx. equal in strength and dug in,it is going to be v.difficult to launch frontal attacks to take positions/ territory. The window of opportunity in these specific areas have closed,as the element of surprise is over.We will have to look for weaknesses along the now fluid border and take them by surprise again.

5.There are 2 options for us,a war of attrition lasting months,perhaps years too,with associated economiccost to us and the second ,a swift attack with definite territorial objectves in mind on the ground ,and in the maritime sphere other objectives from interdicting its MVs in the IOR to also assisting the Quad should the ICS boil over. All forms of naval maritime warfare will be open to us both inthe IOR and the ICS.

6.It is unlikely to expect that despite the PRC's aggression in the ICS,island takeaways,etc., bullying the littoral nations, active assistance like joining in the battle will be forthcoming from the anti- PRC grouping. It is sufficient if war material and intel support is provided to us.Many sympathetic smaller nations are too heavily engaged with the
PRC ,or worried about the military consequences to join in a firefight. As for the Quad members,a closer relationship is beneficial to us even if none join in. As several former many starred military men have said,we can fight the PRC on our own with logistic war material and intel help from the others.

7.We need to expand and improve our diplomatic campaign and outreach globally to expose the nature of PRC aggression and its gameplan for Asia and the globe. Few if any countries have openly come out and condemned the PRC in the current crisis for obvious reasons. In the months preceding the'71 war, Mrs.G.made
a cooncerted effort to muster the western nations in restraining and ending the Paki genocide in E.Pak which sent 10 million refugees into India.

More open support for the Tibetan cause and Taiwan is urgently reqd. We MUST play both the" T" cards in haste and keep a very careful eye on the little protectorate of Bhutan which is in great danger of being annexed by the PRC.Control of the entite Himalatyan " ranges and its water resources is one of its principal objectives.

[rohitvats]

[Admins, please remove if inappropriate]

- Gentlemen, I'v finally created a YouTube channel of my own.
- And here's the first analysis which discusses strategic importance of Chushul Sector.


Video Link -




A summary of what the video discusses and explains:

- In the intervening nights of 29th and 30th August, and then subsequently on 30th and 31st August, the Indian Army took a series of steps to control the ridge-line along the Kailash range in the Chushul sector.

- This development is being seen from a narrow perspective of its impact only on the Chushul and Pangong Tso sector.

- As is shown in this analysis, by taking the ridge-line along with important features like Rechin La, Rezang La, Mukhapari, Gurung Hill, Black Top (possibly), Indian Army has removed a major threat to our India's defenses in the Eastern Ladakh sector.

- Location of Chushul is such that any break-out by the Chinese from Spanggur Gap gives them an option to mount offensive against Indian positions towards north as well as south.

- The Chinese army has in theory isolate Indian positions and troops in the Chang Chenmo river valley (Hot Springs, Gogra), Ane La pass, Fingers Area, block DSDBO road, or mountain an offensive against Leh along Darbuk-Chang La axis.

- Towards south, Indian positions and troops in various sectors like Demchok, Ukdungle, Chumur etc can be isolated, their road link with Leh broken and troops attacked from the rear.

- And the biggest threat is that Chinese break-out from Spanggur Gap gives them a possibility to develop a major offensive towards Leh through the highway which runs along the Indus river.

Please have a look and do share your feedback and comments.

[g.sarkar]

Removed as already posted. Beaten again!
Gautam

[Y I Patel]

Rohit

Congratulations on your amazing progress - groundbreaking journalism on SFF for IT, interviews on TV... your expertise is now being recognized well beyond BRF, but I know I speak for all over here that we are very proud of you! Best wishes for your new initiative to post on Youtube.

[RamSuresh]

[Admins, please remove if inappropriate]

- A summary of what the video discusses and explains:

So nice of you to summarise the video, even though it may reduce the view count of Video.

Thank you and wishing the best for the effort

[RamSuresh]

and in fact we have a treaty to protect them too.

I am not able to locate this part. The 1949 treaty does not talk about India protecting Bhutan at all. Could you share the reference.

[Sanju]

[Admins, please remove if inappropriate]

- Gentlemen, I'v finally created a YouTube channel of my own.
- And here's the first analysis which discussed strategic importance of Chushul Sector.

<snip>

RV, congrats on your channel!! I have been following your appearances on TV & other media like the Jaipur Dialogues. Wishing you continued success.

[IndraD]

so proud of you rohit vats! May your Kesari Dhwaj flies high forever!

[Philip]

Bhutan is technically not an Indian protectorate,but an unwtitten understanding exists that India will "protect" it. The PRC is now reigniting the Doklam spat after being stymied in Ladakh,hoping to put pressure upon Bhutan. Thus far Bhutan has resisted giving into PRC demands of formal recognition/ relations,etc.

[KLNMurthy]

Latest gyan from Gobar times

https://twitter.com/Hiranyareta/status/ ... 9123793920

Gandhian Gyan from @HuXijin_GT, Gobar Times fella.


" If we win on the battlefield at the expense of our international morality, we might mistakenly help the US build an anti-China alliance that challenges our strategic position even more."

Downhill skiing, China edition?

[Lohit]

It is sufficient if war material and intel support is provided to us.

Indeed. India must build consensus on a New Lend and Lease program. With our socialist history, while access to bases to the US is far fetched and perhaps inadvisable as well, we can explore creation of a proxy arrangement wherein we source "material" from say, Japan, France or Australia along with access to select bases with US monetary support to such a program. Our gov must convince the democratic world that its defense rests in the defense of India.

The biggest impediment to this is obv western fear that India becomes "too powerful" and overcomes its carefully placed counter-balance to India, which is Pakistan.

However this fear will become redundant, as Pak becomes more and more of a Chinese satellite. Then infact, "neutralising" Pak will become a western imperative.

Such a program could perhaps provide some immediate, short-term succour for a decade or two.

Increasingly though it is getting clear that are indeed a far better "fit" with Western democracies vs other alternate groupings which involve "strong man" dictatorships.

As an aside, congrats to Vatsji, subscribed!

[Guddu]

As we suspected earlier on this thread they will go for Bhutan, bcowards

How long before Bhutan merges with India. They cannot fight China, and India apparently only defends the areas with strategic importance. Anyone think that is possible. Hopefully not too OT for this thread.

[VinodTK]

[Admins, please remove if inappropriate]

Congratulations RV great job please keep it going.

[vijayk]

https://twitter.com/tanganzhu/status/13 ... 42688?s=21

Sep 12
Is China socializing its people to prepare for war?

H/T
@niubi
for highlighting a recent meeting of the Central POLITICAL and LEGAL AFFAIRS Commission which uses the term “战” – "war" - 16 times (and Xi Jiniping 18 times).

A THREAD

http://legal.people.com.cn/n1/2020/0910 ... 56891.html
Drew Thompson 唐安竹
@TangAnZhu
·
Sep 12
CCP political discourse constantly uses the “war” metaphor, partly because of its historic and cultural perspective that all relationships are a form of struggle.

/2
Drew Thompson 唐安竹
@TangAnZhu
·
Sep 12
China’s gov’t regularly declares war on social challenges – war, pollution, food waste, drugs, etc.

(It’s not just China – remember Johnson’s war on poverty in 1964).

/3
Drew Thompson 唐安竹
@TangAnZhu
·
Sep 12
Years ago I met with Hu Jia, then a public health advocate, asking why he wore a camouflage outfit in the office. “It’s a war on AIDS,” he responded.

Around that time, in 2005, I wrote a paper about the “People’s War Against Drugs and HIV/AIDS.”

/3
https://jamestown.org/program/the-peopl ... d-hivaids/
Drew Thompson 唐安竹
@TangAnZhu
·
Sep 12
A “People’s War” is more significant than a plain old war, signalling greater government commitment, and consequences for Party members or people who do not enthusiastically take up “arms” against the target issue.

In February, Xi Jinping declared a “People’s War” on COVID.

now what? Chinese and Jihadis are same?

[KL Dubey]

The right of a nation to remain Independent isn't determined by if there is a bully around. It should be based on whether they have a unique culture and civilisation that can be self sustaining and flourish independently. Bhutan is such a unique kingdom and India should help it remain independent.

The stretch from west Nepal to eastern Arunachal is a continuum of Hindu-Buddhist culture based on shared Indian roots, the same as what you find if you compare neighboring Indian states. Bhutan is no more unique than Kerala. And it is certainly not self-sustaining.

[vijayk]

Latest gyan from Gobar times

https://twitter.com/Hiranyareta/status/ ... 9123793920

Downhill skiing, China edition?

Don't believe in these scums. could be a way to lull us

[vijayk]

If these scums don't pay any price, they might come back again. We need to squish few thousand PLA buggers and also make them fear in Bhutan. I think once they close their tail, India will be more aggressive in Bhutan border too

[Philip]

We have no alternative when it comes to protecting Bhutan.The PRC would love nothing better but to subjugate Bhutan,Nepal,Sikkim,etc.Remember Mao's words way back in the '50s, "first the hand,then the five fingers",meaning after conquering Tibet,we take over Ar.Pradesh ( NEFA then), Bhutan,Sikkim,Nepal and Aksai Chin/ Ladakh. Xitler Ping Pong has delusions of being another Chairman,Mao's successor. Once that is understood, the PRC's moves on the global chessboard and in our border areas is clearly understood.

[SSridhar]

Warning

I have deleted posts that call for India 'annexing' another country. Be mindful of what language is used. Further discussion using such words would invite warning.

[Suraj]

Downhill skiing, China edition?

Don't believe in these scums. could be a way to lull us

Not a question of believing them.

This must be seen from their perspective. “India is a weaker regional power hat must periodically be shown its place at a time and manner of Beijing’s choosing.” The notion of such a tributary state rising up and making things hard for the Middle Kingdom doesn’t exist. There is only one known language in such situations and that is harsh penalties imposed by Beijing.

Now the Chinese cannot do their Sun Tzutiapa at will . They could attack but it will cost them a lot and the optics of damaged infrastructure like their showpiece Qingzang Railway, Chinese POWs and dead is impossible to hide. For a nation that’s pivoted to overt bullying as its foreign policy approach (‘wolf warrior’), this reflects an attempt to manage domestic perceptions to avoid what might otherwise be the war that fatally wounds their control over Tibet and Xinjiang.

[Sidhant]

Not a question of believing them.

This must be seen from their perspective. “India is a weaker regional power hat must periodically be shown its place at a time and manner of Beijing’s choosing.” The notion of such a tributary state rising up and making things hard for the Middle Kingdom doesn’t exist. There is only one known language in such situations and that is harsh penalties imposed by Beijing.

Now the Chinese cannot do their Sun Tzutiapa at will . They could attack but it will cost them a lot and the optics of damaged infrastructure like their showpiece Qingzang Railway, Chinese POWs and dead is impossible to hide. For a nation that’s pivoted to overt bullying as its foreign policy approach (‘wolf warrior’), this reflects an attempt to manage domestic perceptions to avoid what might otherwise be the war that fatally wounds their control over Tibet and Xinjiang.

+1 Suraj sir... Also if I may add if a war does breaks out, winning the war will give CCP at max a few 100 sq kms of territory but since India China equation perception is so skewed in front of world and their domestic audiences (SDREs vs great hans), they won’t gain any other points. On the other hand if they loose or even if there is a stalemate, that can truly be the beginning of the unraveling of CCP at the minimum and the state of china as a whole.

[Mandeepsajwan]

Deleted

[SSridhar]

Mandeepsajwan,

Your links make no sense. You can post the original link for example to Hindustan Times in the above case. You post a long Google handle which goes to the Website IndianHawk which sources from other sites. Stop posting like this.

[SSridhar]

- Gentlemen, I'v finally created a YouTube channel of my own.
- And here's the first analysis which discussed strategic importance of Chushul Sector.

Rohit Vats, brilliant.

[Dilbu]

??? Pardon my ignorance... this is been discussed for a long time... no one says go and invade... in fact I have also correlated Sikkim here... I know during independence Bhutan wanted to be a sovereign state but given the new reality of China encroaching Bhutan territory and as an independent state we can do only so much.. I thought BRF should be the site to discuss it right??

Saar apologies if my reaction was a bit callous. That was not the intention. The logic behind the decision to remain as a small independent country in the neighborhood of a bully like China is certainly worth discussing. However it is my opinion that we shouldn't suggest *the word that shall not be used* into India as a solution to this problem. It is too strong a word to use and makes India look like another bully if you do not understand the context. Ultimately it is the decision of the people of Bhutan as to how deeply they want to engage with India.

[KL Dubey]

^^This is the Banditji worldview. That is not how the neighboring state of Sikkim was integrated into India. Nor was it how Sardar Patel went about unification of India. The "decision of the people" was strongly and actively "influenced" by the Indian goremint. OK, follow due process after the conflict is over, but don't leave the result to chance.

The fact here is that large powers do have a territorial interest as one basis for their existence. The difference between India and China lies in how that basis is defined and what is the vision behind integration of territory and its people. Chinese claims over Tibet are basically founded upon "some Chinaman conquered some part of Tibet earlier, so it's ours". Now if you have to ask me what the Indian basis is, there is no point of this discussion in the first place. The moderator apparently does not like a particular word to be included in the discussion, since it is said that makes us look callous.

Anyway, back to regular programming. I hope more kungfu artists have been dispatched back on stretchers. I have been informed that Jackie Chan and Jet Li have been promoted to PLA brigadiers and are deployed via G-219 at Ngari. They are in charge of training the kungfu personnel to form human bridges over sections of G-219 that could be damaged by IAF raids or missiles. Flexing of their rock-hard muscles allow PLA trucks to roll over them.

[pankajs]

Warning

I have deleted posts that call for India 'annexing' another country. Be mindful of what language is used. Further discussion using such words would invite warning.

[Cain Marko]

Okay - this might be a very naive line of thought but - Who will come and from where to repair said craters saar? As I understand it, this is not like an airfield but a superlong highway without too many human settlements in sight for 100s of km.
If it takes them 24 hours to repair on area, India could create another crater in 10 minutes in some other spot. They can play whackamole for a long time before they get a clear path to bring in supplies.

What do you think Rutog and Ngari are?

How will you play "whackamole"? Presumably IAF? Will IAF be able to enforce complete air dominance about 100-150 km from the LAC for it to create the scenario that you suggest?

Rutog has about 1000 population. Entire county is 10000. As far as range is concerned, 219 is literally within MLRS range and in some places even artillery units could cause massive damage.

IAF enforcing air superiority 150km from LAC? There is no such need - they could stay within Indian border and bang away with Garuda/Garuthama/Spice/Saaw types.

[pankajs]

^^ Again a one sided scenario analysis ...

Somewhere I read that the Chinese have emulated the Soviet strategy of Arty heavy ground attack forces. I haven't researched that bit but IFF that is true it means that the Chinese have more Arty per soldier than Indian forces. Atry here includes MLRS other rockets ..

Add to that fact, that China has modernized its forces in the past 20 years. What is the number of Arty pieces that Indian Army has inducted in the past 20 years? We could take the scenario forward from this point on. So let us begin with the basic question, which portion of G219 is within Arty range and which Indian Arty piece?

Lastly wrt IAF, how many Garuda/Garuthama/Spice/Saaw types have been inducted into the IAF inventory? Before anyone talks about Spice/Hammer or SCALP, remember these are very expensive rounds that have been procured in limited quantities and for special situations. They will not cover our "wackamole" scenarios.

Most of the facts are staring us in the face yet we continue to build scenarios that are divorced from ground realities.

Oh ... forget the first bit about Rutog having 1000 people ... I mean the Chinese HAVE assembled 50,000 troops in the general area and we are still stuck at 1000 people at Rutog? Have they come into the area without their engineers and support crew? I have to shake my head at such things.

[rpartha]

??? Pardon my ignorance... this is been discussed for a long time... no one says go and invade... in fact I have also correlated Sikkim here... I know during independence Bhutan wanted to be a sovereign state but given the new reality of China encroaching Bhutan territory and as an independent state we can do only so much.. I thought BRF should be the site to discuss it right??

Saar apologies if my reaction was a bit callous. That was not the intention. The logic behind the decision to remain as a small independent country in the neighborhood of a bully like China is certainly worth discussing. However it is my opinion that we shouldn't suggest *the word that shall not be used* into India as a solution to this problem. It is too strong a word to use and makes India look like another bully if you do not understand the context. Ultimately it is the decision of the people of Bhutan as to how deeply they want to engage with India.

No issues sir... Thanks for your words too... I know moderator doesnt want me to use a particular word but even other words like integration , merging etc etc will have the same negative connotation.. all means the same - addition of something to the pre- existing... anyway the question is the intent here - what would be the intent of India, what would be the intent of Bhutan, intent of China etc in this changed scenario... i am taking an ex of Taiwan and US as I dont want to use the negative word in terms of Bhutan and India. Say suppose US has annexed Taiwan, will China dare do all these things that they are trying to do now in SCS? Being a part of the nation is different than being provided an umbrella of security... under the umbrella of security protector nation may not go beyond a certain point if assured even a reasonable destruction or an impact when bully wants to take chances given their economic scenario... but being part of the nation if makes even the bully thinks twice to do anything... that's the intent of me posting the above...

[rpartha]

This is completely flaming tweet by Shooklaw.. I dont know why he has to do this...

https://twitter.com/ajaishukla/status/1 ... 71105?s=20

Express cites Chinese monitoring as "hybrid warfare".

Says: "hybrid warfare seeks to incite social discord, disrupt economic activities, undermine institutions, and discredit political leadership and intelligentsia."

Arent the bhakts already doing that?

[V_Raman]

Given we are a status quo power, our biggest fault is not having a dominating airpower. We waste money on keeping people employed in DPSU and imports..

Asking Gurus here , what is the reason for 42 Squadrons. I mean such a strange number. Why not 50 or even aim for 100. Every squadron need not have Gen 5 . Good number of Gen 3 with upgrades also fine.

In that case we could order combat hawk in numbers as we already have the production line. But that is OT...

[rpartha]

Moderators, pls feel free to delete my posts on Bhutan... I see people are coming up with Sikkim which is completely not necessary... not sure whether my post on Bhutan caused it.. Sikkim is an integral part of India. Period. Jai Hind!

[pankajs]

https://www.ft.com/content/ecd85303-981 ... 3e88f7b7f5
India and China are edging towards a more serious conflict

It is no longer possible to dismiss the conflict between India and China as a skirmish. The understanding reached last week between the countries’ foreign ministers points to a pause. But it does not address the underlying issues that have pushed the countries closer to serious conflict. The American historian Barbara Tuchman is often cited as observing: “War is the unfolding of miscalculations.” The next few months might prove a test case for that hypothesis.

Right reading of the situation as has been discussed in this forum.

[SSridhar]

Moderators, pls feel free to delete my posts on Bhutan... I see people are coming up with Sikkim which is completely not necessary... not sure whether my post on Bhutan caused it.. Sikkim is an integral part of India. Period. Jai Hind!

I am happy you have understood.

[Larry Walker]

If India looses max few more square kms of land abutting the land already lost to China vs CPC or even PRC unravelling if they loose or even stalemate in this limited conflict - then is it not in our interest to press on for this conflict and hedge our bets? Imagine if we are able to remove the most serious threat to our well being and prosperity (including neutering Pakis by default) by fighting this limited war - then maybe this is a sacrifice worth paying for in blood.
I am just trying to extend the thought process i see on this forum that any setback for PLA in this conflict will spell doom for CPC or XiPing at the minimum.