India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

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vijayk
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby vijayk » 18 Sep 2020 22:17

https://www.wionews.com/photos/india-ch ... nks-328471


India-China standoff: How India's T-20 Bhishma battle tank is outflanking China's PLA at LAC
India has been quite openly reinforcing the T90 tanks in its arsenal to take on China's Type-15 tanks at LAC



According to reports, India had moved its premier T-90 battle tanks to eastern Ladakh in late June in the aftermath of the Galwan clash between Indian soldiers and Chinese troops even as India and Chinese commanders began their long drawn talks to disengage along the LAC.

The Russian-built T-90 Bhishma tanks were acquired by India in 2001. India has already been boosting its T-90 tank capacity for several years keeping in mind the growing security risk along the LAC.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby chola » 18 Sep 2020 22:33

fanne wrote:IA has superior armor in T-90 compared to T-15s. It lacks in mobility, but last I checked, there is no Olympics (Tank Biathlon) for tanks going on here. Perhaps faster tank will help Chinese for faster downhill skiing. I am assuming that the flat plateau where the war will take place can handle both 48 ton T-90 and 36 Ton T-15 (i.e. the ground is strong enough for both), IA will make a mincemeat. Both IAF planes and Apache will show up, and Hotan is not that far from here (I would say 150 miles, by Leh is 50 miles), so will expect PLAAF action as well. Chines have mobile artillery while we have fixed ones (but good for another 20-30 KM from LAC, unless we are planning to go further than that, our lack of mobility should not hurt that much). We will come on Tops at Depsang, let the war start.


The only reason for the Type 15 is to be in places a regular MBT supposedly can't.

If the MBT is where the Type 15 is then the chini crew will be peeing all over the inside of their light tank because it is not made to contest a proper main battle tank.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cain Marko » 18 Sep 2020 22:37

rpartha wrote:Pls find a new tweet from Nitin...


Nitin A. Gokhale
@nitingokhale
·
5h
I am glad
@rwac48
has revised/corrected his info on black top. Emphasising this because many of you had quoted Gen Panag to ridicule my information that Helmet and Black top heights are NOT in India’s possession. The map depicts the current positions

https://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status ... 06144?s=20

So black and helmet top are still under Chinese control? Then what was the August 31 action all about where we supposedly made some crucial gains. Can dinner guru explain?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Paul » 18 Sep 2020 22:50

https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis ... 2020-09-18

Is China avoiding conflict or secretly planning a counterattack against India?


Many within China believe that its India policy is lacking strength and its military deterrence against India is proving ineffective. The questions doing rounds among Chinese strategic circles are that despite India’s “all-out attack”, why has the government still not taken “equal” countermeasures? Some Chinese strategists say the Chinese govt is either avoiding conflict, or it is secretly planning a counterattack.
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Antara Ghosal Singh
New Delhi
September 18, 2020UPDATED: September 18, 2020 15:28 IST

(Reuters photo for representation)
India’s capturing of key strategic heights along the southern bank of the Pangong Lake during the intermittent night of August 29 and 30 and the subsequent firing incidents at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) on September 7-8 marked a new round of escalation in China-India border confrontation, which has been going on since early May.

The Chinese government expressed its displeasure at these developments by apparently changing the official communication strategy that it followed since the beginning of the stand-off and seizing the initiative to launch a public opinion offensive by releasing its own version of the developments along the China-India border first and coming up with Chinese names for contested points at the LAC.

China’s state media too issued a series of threats saying India has “crossed all lines”, “it is standing awkwardly on the edge of a cliff”, “Indian military is not even a worthy opponent of the PLA” and thereby urged it to either withdraw troops “unconditionally” or be ready to get “wiped out” at the battlefield.

Even as Beijing seems to be beating the war drums, many within China are of the opinion that China’s India policy at this juncture is lacking strength and its military deterrence against India is increasingly proving ineffective.

The questions doing rounds among Chinese strategic circles are that despite India’s “all-out attack” vis-a-vis China (political-economic-military) post the Galwan Valley incident, why has the Chinese government still not taken “equal” and “reciprocal” countermeasures on ground against India? Why is China still talking about ‘resolute opposition’ but not announcing immediate counter-attacks? Why are the diplomats of both countries still exchanging goodwill? Looking at the trend, some Chinese strategists conjectured that the Chinese government is either avoiding conflict, or it is secretly and intensively planning a counterattack against India.

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Why would China avoid conflict?

It is interesting to note that despite the charged atmosphere and heightened hostility, China’s leading India watchers like Zhang Jiadong, Lin Minwang, from the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University, Qian Feng from the Tsinghua University, Zhang Guoqing of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences among others, have been advocating that “China need not overestimate the hostility of India and overreact" as India's "pre-emptive" military actions, “provocative gestures” like firing warning shots are not really meant to seize Chinese territory or mount a war against China, but to obtain a more favourable bargaining position in subsequent negotiations with China.

India’s strategy towards China, they say, is like ‘fighting without breaking, harmony but with differences’- the same strategy that China adopts vis-a-vis the United States.

Some of them are even not ruling out a sudden “turn-around” in China-India ties as a fall out of the ongoing border crisis. It is being argued that be it 1987 border conflict followed by the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s China visit in 1988 and the subsequent opening of a new chapter in China-India ties, or the 1998 India’s nuclear test followed by the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s China visit in 2003 and major decisions taken on the border issue, China-India relations have always emerged stronger from the brink of war.

The present confrontation too, they argue, may lead to similar major consensus, if the leadership of both countries seek to turn this “crisis into an opportunity” by further communicating, solving problems and reaching new consensus.

So, why are some of China’s top strategists still talking peace?

The concern over international pressure and China’s isolation apart, yet another key reason behind Chinese government’s unwillingness to “take the bait of a military conflict under Indian pressure” could be due to its perceived “serious quantitative disadvantage” in terms of military deployment along China’s western frontier.

China’s internal debates and discussions made repeated references to how unlike India which has always considered its northern and north-western borders with China and Pakistan as the gravest national security challenge and made meticulous preparations all along, and where the same deployment can provide defence against both the adversaries to some extent at the same time, China’s national defence focus in the last 70 years have shifted from north to south and southeast but never so much to the southwest.

Since the Doklam incident of 2017, many Chinese strategists have been flagging the concern that China may not be adequately prepared for a military conflict in its southwest, that it still does not have a local military advantage along the China-India border and that it cannot really support a small scale battle victory here.

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Making matters worse, China’s dire needs for better deployment at its Western frontier has now met with an unprecedented population crisis. “The 40 years of one-child policy has left a gap in China’s demography where the young population is becoming greatly insufficient for large scale deployments at the battlefield and for other economic activities,” read an article in Honggehui, a website with Maoist lineage.

It is in this backdrop, there is a palpable unease among Chinese strategic circles over India’s massive troop deployment at the LAC. It has been noted with great concern on various occasions that with India reportedly stationing more than 200,000 troops at the frontier, the ratio between Indian and Chinese forces at the LAC may have become an alarming “4:1, 5:1 or possibly even higher”.

Further explaining the issue, Zhang Jiadong argued that, “In the past, China had advantages in infrastructure in the border areas, while India had advantages in human resources, and the two sides formed a rough balance.

However, in recent years, (while China is yet to make major headway in terms of deployment along the China-India border), India’s infrastructure development has been making rapid progress. This has broken the original balance of power at the border India now wants to use its tactical advantages to counter China's overall strategic advantages.”

Various commentaries in the Chinese internet strove to assuage this concern, by arguing that modern warfare is all about science and technology, where troops are really only “a living target”/ “cannon fodder” in front of precision guided weapons.

In the context of high altitude operations, equipment, supplies, and mobility are much more important than manpower. Others made vile attacks on India “for sending such a huge number of troops without adequate preparations for winter”, and condemned Indian culture for not valuing human lives enough and eulogising self-flagellation or life sacrifices, which they say is “unthinkable” in the Chinese culture and very difficult challenge for China to handle.

Some Chinese articles even compared India’s massive troop deployment at the frontier and its decision to spend the harsh winter at the LAC with India’s non-cooperation movement against the British, where in the Chinese perception, Indians through self-flagellation “embarrassed or rather disgusted” the British to make concession and ultimately agree to India’s freedom. “If this is a battle of will power”, warned Lin Minwang, “China should not underestimate India, given its track record (of freedom struggle movements) and how it has challenged Pakistan over the Siachen Glacier, allowing its soldiers to stay in freezing cold for years”. The Indian military, Chinese strategists infer, has hundreds of thousands of soldiers to sacrifice and will never give up easily.

Is China secretly planning a counterattack?

By occupying the key strategic heights in the south bank of the Pangang Tso, particularly the Black Top, Indian forces seem to have touched a raw nerve among many within Chinese strategic circles.

There has been much displeasure over the fact that in 1962, the People's Liberation Army had reportedly seized this highland with “82 casualties”, but now it has been recaptured by India “without firing a single shot”, which they say is “totally unacceptable”.

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It is further argued that given the current state of preparedness among the Indian military, it is very difficult to regain this highland through a hand-to-hand combat, while it is equally unrealistic to expect India to back down through negotiations and thus there has been a growing clamour among Chinese military circles for a forceful counterattack against India.

Other than that, the use of Special Frontier Force (SFF) by India in the China-India border confrontation has been yet another sore point and the consensus on this issue among Chinese strategists seems to be that “the reactionary force based on hatred towards China, the minions of India can only be physically eliminated.”

However, some Chinese strategists believe that by not reacting immediately, the PLA is actually buying time, building strong defences and fortification so as to launch a more severe counterattack in a more appropriate time.

Rumours are rife in the Chinese internet that China will take the opportunity of the US election to carry out a military expedition either against Taiwan or against India. Christmas time is also seen as an opportune moment for a counterattack against India when the US will stay distracted, and India will also be inconvenienced due to heavy snow.

The idea is to carry out “a small scale conflict at the tactical level” or an ambush attack by luring Indian troops into the Chinese territory. However, if this gets escalated into a larger military conflict, Chinese generals like Wang Hongguang, a former deputy commander of China’s Nanjing Military Region, suggest a four pronged strategy to deal with India, firstly, by seizing air supremacy over Ladakh and simultaneously capturing electronic control systems, destroying India’s command network, air defence network (radar network), and air command network, secondly, targeting India’s key infrastructures, artillery positions, armoured clusters, logistics storage warehouses, oil depots etc., thirdly, occupying key strategic heights, dividing and trapping the Indian deployments by cutting off the Depsang Plain and the Siachen Glacier, and finally, occupying National Highway 1 from Srinagar to Leh and thereby cutting off the connection between Ladakh and the outside world.

This way, China, if willing, can seize the whole of Ladakh in case of a large-scale military conflict with India, he further asserted.

Similarly, Chinese internet is full of commentaries urging the PLA to use its propaganda machinery to exploit caste and religion-based fault lines in the Indian military and create rifts between its officers and soldiers to bring down the morale of the Indian forces. They further advocated formation of a joint front with Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and others to launch a combined offensive against India where “China recovers Ladakh, Arunachal and the northeast, Pakistan captures Kashmir, Nepal gets its claimed land, Sikkim becomes independent, Bangladesh gets West Bengal, Bhutan comes out of India’s shadow and India is reduced to its princely state era.”

Regardless of whether China chooses to escalate or de-escalate, the present tension at the LAC, we in India should take note of the fact that as a direct fall out of the present crisis and before that the Doklam standoff of 2017, a greater realisation has been setting in within the Chinese strategic circles that India in the west, with 3 million square km of land area, with a comprehensive national strength ranked fourth in the world, with 1.3 billion people with an average age of 27 years, who has always considered China as an adversary, is a bigger threat to China’s rise than even the US in the east, which is a relatively aging society, a globally stretched out troops and against whom it believes it enjoys some sort of local military advantage.

Therefore, despite “strategically despising” India, Chinese strategists feel “tactically, it can no longer ignore India”.

In fact, there has been a growing consensus in China that a China-India conflict is somewhat inevitable, if not now, but in the future and most likely earlier than the Sino-US conflict and if China handles this well, it will provide more mileage to China at the global level but if it falters, “the China-India conflict in the new era will mark the beginning of China's decline”.

(Antara Ghosal Singh is a Researcher at the Delhi Policy Group (DPG). She is a graduate from Tsinghua University, China and has been a Chinese language fellow at the National Central University, Taiwan. Views are personal.)

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 18 Sep 2020 23:16

Till the Chinese withdraw to their peacetime location, we MUST always assume they are waiting to attack. There is no other way to play this.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nachiket » 18 Sep 2020 23:56

tsarkar wrote:Given that we've dharmically decided not to occupy Black Top and Helmet Top

If the Chinese never withdrew from Black Top after 1962 and have a post on top, then we cannot "occupy" it. It will have to be captured, Kargil style with an uphill assault followed by a firefight. Given that no state of war still exists between the two countries even now and neither side has gone beyond warning shots, how do you propose we do that without starting a war?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nachiket » 18 Sep 2020 23:58

Cain Marko wrote:So black and helmet top are still under Chinese control? Then what was the August 31 action all about where we supposedly made some crucial gains. Can dinner guru explain?

Did you watch Rohit Vats' video on the topic? He posted it on this thread a while back. He explains the whole situation quite well. Even allowing for Black Top and Helmet top still being under Chinese control, IA's actions have a significant impact.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby abhik » 19 Sep 2020 00:50

pankajs wrote:The Chinese Depsang gambit has to be countered in that sector ...

IA is on the task. Apart from blocking the IA patrol most of the Chinese buildup is beyond the Patrol route on the Chinese side as can be made out my the map attacked by @tsarkar.

1. IA has done some readjustment in this sector too ... whatever that means. I expect they have taken up positions on some heights surrounding the Karakoram pass and Depsang plain.
2. IA is deployed in strength both men and machines in the sector.

Any Idea where PP13 is? I have seen a couple of interpretations, and depending on which is correct, the Chinese could be physically blocking it with a camp (they have built a small one on Jivan nala).

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 19 Sep 2020 01:02

^^
PP-13 around 35° 2'1.34"N, 78°21'51.65"E.

The Chinese have a road right up to 35° 1'32.26"N, 78°13'38.38"E along the Jeewan nala. Infact, PP-11A, 12 & 13 are on a Chinese built road/track or we can state the reverse i.e. the Chinese have built a road/track along out patrolling route but especially PP-11A, 12 & 13. They could block us anywhere along the circuit if they so desire.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby williams » 19 Sep 2020 01:15

nachiket wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:So black and helmet top are still under Chinese control? Then what was the August 31 action all about where we supposedly made some crucial gains. Can dinner guru explain?

Did you watch Rohit Vats' video on the topic? He posted it on this thread a while back. He explains the whole situation quite well. Even allowing for Black Top and Helmet top still being under Chinese control, IA's actions have a significant impact.


If the Chinese never withdrew from Black Top after 1962 and have a post on top, then we cannot "occupy" it. It will have to be captured, Kargil style with an uphill assault followed by a firefight. Given that no state of war still exists between the two countries even now and neither side has gone beyond warning shots, how do you propose we do that without starting a war?


So first off as soon as this news came in, there were reports of Indian troops destroying Chinese surveillance equipment. Chinese have a small post below black top, but I don't think they occupied black top. They probably had some surveillance equipment.

The secondly, IA did not give out any operational postions for obvious reasons. But there were selective leaks. When news reports said IA occupied these two peaks, IA did not officially denied it. Few people like Nitin did say we did not occupy it. I dont think even Nitin ji can get this level of operational details especially when there is an ongoing operation. So the same old SDRE obfuscation is in play here.

So my thought is this is the face saver we are ready to give. If the Chinese descalate we will simply say, black top and helmet top is not with us. If not then we will use these positions to clean them up in the Spangur bowl. If we only occupied few other hieghts and not these two peaks, we can't say we are dominating this area.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby abhik » 19 Sep 2020 01:19

pankajs wrote:^^
PP-13 around 35° 2'1.34"N, 78°21'51.65"E.

The Chinese have a road right up to 35° 1'32.26"N, 78°13'38.38"E along the Jeewan nala. Infact, PP-11A, 12 & 13 are on a Chinese built road/track or we can state the reverse i.e. the Chinese have built a road/track along out patrolling route but especially PP-11A, 12 & 13. They could block us anywhere along the circuit if they so desire.

In that case, they do have a camp here at 35°01'25.0"N, 78°16'39.0"E, along the road they have already built, these should be part of the land that was salami sliced in 2013 or even before. Although I still don't get the narrative that they are blocking us at Y-junction which is very close to our Burtse base, and no nearby roads or Chinese bases.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 19 Sep 2020 01:28

IMHO, the base they use to launch patrol and blockage at y-junction is the one located on the Depsang plain @ 35°17'56.40"N, 78° 3'32.10"E opposite our Tac HQ base.

If one zooms close enough one can make out a faint jeep trail too from this base to y-junction, a distance of about 30 kms by road. Infact, in one of the maps I spotted a vehicle on this track.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 19 Sep 2020 01:36

Check this out ... https://zoom.earth/#view=35.17989,78.13844,19z; Choose the period "Nov 2010 - Sep 2015"

Can you see the track and the vehicle on the track? Where do you think is that vehicle going or coming from? Zoom out and check its position wrt Y-junction and follow the track both sides.

One can see the vehicle tracks up to https://zoom.earth/#view=35.161635,78.135171,20z in the middle of the frame just north of the shadow beyond which the image changes and the tracks are no longer visible. The track is moving towards y-junction.

Another vehicle on the track https://zoom.earth/#view=35.172407,78.140178,20z

Another vehicle on the same track https://zoom.earth/#view=35.21066,78.141294,20z

Another one https://zoom.earth/#view=35.221824,78.139384,20z

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 19 Sep 2020 02:17

Based on India Today report ..

https://twitter.com/YusufDFI/status/1306941865820712960
In the last four days, Indian positions have witnessed a daily stream of Chinese combat medics evacuate small numbers of PLA troops from high altitude posts in the Fingers area on stretchers.

Due to freezing temperatures. And the winter is yet to come

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby williams » 19 Sep 2020 05:17

pankajs wrote:Based on India Today report ..

https://twitter.com/YusufDFI/status/1306941865820712960
In the last four days, Indian positions have witnessed a daily stream of Chinese combat medics evacuate small numbers of PLA troops from high altitude posts in the Fingers area on stretchers.

Due to freezing temperatures. And the winter is yet to come


The temperature should not be that bad yet. Either it could be altitude sickness or our troops misfiring in the sky :wink:

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby RCase » 19 Sep 2020 05:34

pankajs wrote:Based on India Today report ..

https://twitter.com/YusufDFI/status/1306941865820712960
In the last four days, Indian positions have witnessed a daily stream of Chinese combat medics evacuate small numbers of PLA troops from high altitude posts in the Fingers area on stretchers.

Due to freezing temperatures. And the winter is yet to come

So much for the longevity of those 'Made in China' hyperbaric barracks/tents and heaters!
What is next? Those high speed optic fibers will start to squint in the cold?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby D.Mahesh » 19 Sep 2020 06:44

nachiket wrote:
tsarkar wrote:Given that we've dharmically decided not to occupy Black Top and Helmet Top

If the Chinese never withdrew from Black Top after 1962 and have a post on top, then we cannot "occupy" it. It will have to be captured, Kargil style with an uphill assault followed by a firefight. Given that no state of war still exists between the two countries even now and neither side has gone beyond warning shots, how do you propose we do that without starting a war?


Not unreasonable or even stupid to assert, PLA presence on Black-Top is little more than some bored border guards & one commissar. Definitely nothing like Tololing.

But the Ind-MIL has been treating it like a Kargil or even Siachen & has girded up for heavy action.

The core of the PLAGF/AF/N that is up to Indian-MIL standards is possibly 20% of standing cadre at best.

We lost ground badly in 1962 simply because of misdeployment & v.v.poor leadership.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby williams » 19 Sep 2020 06:57



Quiet a hilarious post of how Chinese live in their posh post close to the blacktop from Shiv. And some of us here are dhoti shivering that we need to go for war to occupy Blacktop. Near my home town, some domestic elephants will be tied to a small post with some very weak chains. One of the forest ranger explained to me of the fact that those elephants have more than enough strength to break from that chain but they do not. It seems they are tied with those chains right when they were babies and they have made up their mind that they dont have the strength to break from the chains even when they have become 7 ton adults. That is the story of India against the Chinese.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Roop » 19 Sep 2020 10:53

D.Mahesh wrote:We lost ground badly in 1962 simply because of misdeployment & v.v.poor leadership.


That, plus the fact that the PLA of 1962 was much tougher and more battle-hardened than today's PLA.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby wig » 19 Sep 2020 11:06

https://www.gunnersshot.com/2020/09/sin ... tions.html

this blog has excellent analysis and information

extracted from the concluding parts

Story of India. I need to tell a story. Summer of 99. Op Vijay broke out. My regiment (all Rajputs ) was mobilised overnight from the Eastern to the Northern sector. A number of young soldiers on completion of post recruit training were posted to make good our strengths. All of them reported to Siliguri. Around a dozen of them with a couple of NCOs, retuning from leave, were despatched to join the regiment in the staging area. War rumours were abound. At Delhi railway station, two young soldiers (from neighbouring villages) gave the slip and went AWOL. They went home and told their mothers that they came on leave. One of the mothers suspected something unusual and quizzed her son. Out came the AWOL story. She gave him a couple of tight slaps, took him to the other village and told the other boy’s mother about it. She in turn slapped her son. How could they become AWOL from the regiment when the nation was at war? One village elder was entrusted to deposit these young soldiers with the unit. He brought them to me and said “ CO sahab inko maaf kar dena. In dono ka mathaon ne inke saath bahut gussa kiya. Rajputon ka be-izzati ho gaya. Desh ka Raksha karna hamara kartavya hai. Bcahhe hain. Inko asli Rajput banao aur ladai mein sabse aage le jao.” That was that and life went on. When I last visited the unit those ‘boys’ are now experienced and tough gunners and junior leaders.




The Sum of All Fears. Indian mothers will send their sons to war as a matter of IZZAT and desh ka Raksha irrespective of caste, creed, Arm or unit. Phillip Mason called it a ‘Matter of Honour’. This spirit of sacrifice is deeply ingrained in Indian blood streams even now. It was on display in Galwan. A country which has such deep rooted patriotism cannot be defeated by some soft ‘one child Chinese’. Why am I recounting this story? Have faith in our men they will deliver. The sum of all my fears is that some weak bellied and ill-informed politician or diplomat will develop cold feet and fritter away the gains during negotiation. That is our history. We felt diplomacy and international stature will guard the Sino Indian border in 1962. We gave back Haji Pir in 1965. We gave back 93000 prisoners in 1971. We even went about saving Chinese ‘face’ during Doklam despite stopping them in their tracks. How wrong were we? Totally. There is a palpable fear swirling around that some jittery character will give away everything we have gained by blood sweat and tears. ‘Status Quo Ante’ of April has lost value. The Kailash Range should not be traded at any cost. It is ‘off table’ in all negotiations. We need to look at a new status post ante. That could be Northwards into Aksai Chin! Stay tight. This is a defining fight for India. There is more on the cards. The Chinese need a lesson and we will give it to them. Rub their ‘face’ in.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Roop » 19 Sep 2020 11:25

tsarkar wrote:Today the DBO airfield is 30 km from Chinese positions - well within artillery range. The Darbuk–Shyok-DBO Road is 7 km from Chinese positions - well within mortar ranges.


Okay, but what you are implying (or hypothesizing about) is a situation where the Chinese "go kinetic" (start a serious shooting war) against India and get away with no meaningful repercussions.

If what you suggest actually happens (and it is certainly possible, theoretically), IA and IAF will not be passively absorbing the blows like a punching bag, just hoping to survive. That was the India of 1962. Today, in such a scenario, Chinese positions would themselves receive the loving attention of Indian artillery, airstrikes, cruise missile strikes etc. What I hope/expect to happen is that the PLA contingent trapped/holed up in Moldo will be destroyed, their gun positions in Sirijap (near Finger 8 ) will be pounded, and any armoured units they have near Depsang will be attacked from the air. Moreover, if they attack our airfields/landing-strips, there is no reason for the IAF to hold back from air/cruise-missile strikes against Hwy 219 or PLAAF air bases.

Having said that, I will say that this hypothetical scenario (a Chinese attack on DBO and on the Depsang Plain with the intention of advancing towards the Karakoram Pass) is (or was, before the IA and IAF gave them serious pushback) IMO the most likely Chinese war plan in Ladakh. If they could succeed in that aim, they could isolate/starve out the IA contingent on Saltoro Ridge and force us to give it up and withdraw. After that, in their plan, they would IMO move in Paki mountain troops to occupy and hold Saltoro and permanently "join" PoK and CoL (Chinese-occupied Ladakh). I think this was their grand strategy when they started planning last year, or maybe 2 yrs ago. As it happens, IA/IAF were not about to meekly go along with the Chinese plan.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Mort Walker » 19 Sep 2020 11:34

williams,

A few things from Shiv's video, by the way we miss him here, but I think he's missed a few things here:

1. There are additional solar panels towards the back meaning there may be other buildings or bunkers below ground. Each of those panel clusters, look like 36 sq. meters, probably generates a peak power of 5KW at 220 VAC. You see at least 6 of these panel clusters. The solar panels provide power during the day and generator at night. The fuel tanks in the front are unlikely to be for the generator. They are still too close to the building. I suspect those fuel tanks are for vehicles and the one for the generator is behind the building on the left.
2. The power is used for purifying the brackish water from Pangong Tso below and store it in the tank, provide power to below ground bunkers, and power comms, surveillance equipment and associated sensors. There appears to be communication antennas are on top of the building. This is on the front top of the building where the soldiers are standing. It appears the PLA has some commercial point-to-point IP based wireless voice/data comms (looks like cheap Chinese stuff and not mil grade). The IA, being at higher elevation points, is most likely jamming these comms and hence the reports of the PLA running fiber optic cable trunks.
3. The pipes on the outside for gas and water don't make a lot of sense in those extreme freezing temperatures and appear to be PVC conduit running comms cables and power to the top and around the building for the antennas.
4. The video shows only 10 or soldiers, but after April/May there are probably many more PLA soldiers on that location.
5. I don't buy the business of oxygen concentrators. There may indeed be emergency oxygen for wounded, but unlikely on a regular basis. The PLA is not that stupid.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby LakshmanPST » 19 Sep 2020 13:14

pankajs wrote:^^
PP-13 around 35° 2'1.34"N, 78°21'51.65"E.

The Chinese have a road right up to 35° 1'32.26"N, 78°13'38.38"E along the Jeewan nala. Infact, PP-11A, 12 & 13 are on a Chinese built road/track or we can state the reverse i.e. the Chinese have built a road/track along out patrolling route but especially PP-11A, 12 & 13. They could block us anywhere along the circuit if they so desire.


The Cyan and Orange lines are Chinese roads/tracks in the area.
Green lines are Indian roads/tracks.
Red Line is Google Earth LAC.
Indian perception of LAC is way East of the Chinese road along PP11-PP13.
PP Points are approximate.
Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby madhu » 19 Sep 2020 13:35

What if china problem is just to give pak lifeline to annex gilgit to its province and then china can have BRI investment with no issue of india fiddling in it.

Is there a way GB province get connected to aksai chin that is much more meaningful road than current CEPC ? May be taking a part of india into aksai chin they may be in advantage and better connectivity?

I think pak going hyper on GB (starting from a map) and China at the door threatening should have some connection w
Without coincidence...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby jamwal » 19 Sep 2020 13:57

LakshmanPST wrote:
pankajs wrote:^^
PP-13 around 35° 2'1.34"N, 78°21'51.65"E.

The Chinese have a road right up to 35° 1'32.26"N, 78°13'38.38"E along the Jeewan nala. Infact, PP-11A, 12 & 13 are on a Chinese built road/track or we can state the reverse i.e. the Chinese have built a road/track along out patrolling route but especially PP-11A, 12 & 13. They could block us anywhere along the circuit if they so desire.


The Cyan and Orange lines are Chinese roads/tracks in the area.
Green lines are Indian roads/tracks.
Red Line is Google Earth LAC.
Indian perception of LAC is way East of the Chinese road along PP11-PP13.
PP Points are approximate.
Image


Hey, do you have a kml or kmz file of these roads and posts that you can share?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby rpartha » 19 Sep 2020 15:04

So much for the longevity of those 'Made in China' hyperbaric barracks/tents and heaters!
What is next? Those high speed optic fibers will start to squint in the cold?[/quote]


Weather cant be that bad now - too early in the season.. prob something else if it is actually happening...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby jamwal » 19 Sep 2020 15:15

It's not just weather. People from plains can't really acclimatise very well in high altitude places like this. A lot of tourists routinely fall sick in such places, even the experienced ones. It's very hot during day time with a very strong sun which can peel off exposed skin if exposed to sun even for a few hours. And in evening and through out the night, there are strong freezing winds which can cause hypothermia in an hour. There is a reason why this area is so sparsely populated even with so many lakes and rivers.
Marching with full battle load on such rough terrain takes a lot of experience and conditioning.
I once tried to set up camp at 4900 m by myself and it took me around 40 minutes for a 15 minutes job.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nam » 19 Sep 2020 15:17

The Lt Gen is his blog has stated what we thought was the key: Artillery & Airpower. Chini TFTA Rockets against our heights are useless.

Chinis would try out precision attacks using drones or artillery. It is imperative to get out counter battery and airpower in place to decimate Chini artillery and break their attacks.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby RajaRudra » 19 Sep 2020 15:21

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 29632?s=19

The much needed cleanup of dirt needed to start somewhere.

The good thing is, a chinese has been arrested..Indian Govt is in no mood to relent or giving a face saving to chene

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby vijayk » 19 Sep 2020 16:46


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 19 Sep 2020 17:06

Ok looks like things have changed again ..

https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/1307171637834334212
#BREAKING : In the latest developments along LAC, PLA tried to stop the patrolling of Indian Armed forces at 10 patrolling points in Depsong, Galwan and Gogra . Report of fresh deployment by both armies in Galwan.

1. Chinese have opened a few more cards.

2. "tried to stop" is not exactly clear. Where did this latest event occur? Have we been able to move past them or have our patrols been stopped?

3. Not clear where exactly have the latest faceoff taken place @ Galwan? At the PP-14 or inside the Indian side of the valley or at the LAC that is about 500m on the Chinese side of the bend? The last one is unlikely given that we patrol only up to designated patrol points.

The news of fresh faceoff will leak out within a weeks time at most. Could also be a rumor. That possibility can never be discounted when relying on anonymous twitter sources.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby g.sarkar » 19 Sep 2020 17:15

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/arre ... 200919.htm
Arrested journalist passed on secrets to Chinese intel: Cops
Edited By: Utkarsh MishraSeptember 19, 2020.

The Delhi Police on Saturday said it has arrested a Chinese woman and her Nepalese associate, and claimed that they were paying huge amounts of money to freelance journalist Rajeev Sharma for allegedly passing sensitive information to 'Chinese intelligence'.
"Special Cell has arrested a freelance journalist, Rajeev Sharma, for passing sensitive information to Chinese intelligence.
"One Chinese lady (sic) and her Nepalese associate have also been arrested for paying him large amounts of money routed through shell companies.
"Chinese intelligence tasked the journalist for conveying sensitive information in lieu of large amounts of money.
"Huge number of mobile phones, laptops and other incriminating/sensitive material have been recovered," the police said.
.....
Gautam

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby rpartha » 19 Sep 2020 17:38

jamwal wrote:It's not just weather. People from plains can't really acclimatise very well in high altitude places like this. A lot of tourists routinely fall sick in such places, even the experienced ones. It's very hot during day time with a very strong sun which can peel off exposed skin if exposed to sun even for a few hours. And in evening and through out the night, there are strong freezing winds which can cause hypothermia in an hour. There is a reason why this area is so sparsely populated even with so many lakes and rivers.
Marching with full battle load on such rough terrain takes a lot of experience and conditioning.
I once tried to set up camp at 4900 m by myself and it took me around 40 minutes for a 15 minutes job.


Got it. Thanks. that cleared.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 19 Sep 2020 17:44

If the stand off continues for next several months, some part of Chinese troops will eventually acclimatise. Sitting it out will only help the Chinese to improve their deployments, logistics etc. And they will get better idea of IA reposts each time they tickle us.

India will be better off making further decisive moves sooner than later.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshan » 19 Sep 2020 18:10

Mort Walker wrote: It appears the PLA has some commercial point-to-point IP based wireless voice/data comms (looks like cheap Chinese stuff and not mil grade). The IA, being at higher elevation points, is most likely jamming these comms and hence the reports of the PLA running fiber optic cable trunks.

More likely due to what someone had mentioned before that they are masking their communication loop activity being picked up. Apart from that, if communication is important requirement for their ops then the next logical step would be to head to non rf to reduce headaches. Just wartime steps being taken and nothing to do with using jammable links. They have much more advanced capabilities on LPI waveforms and SDRs. And also capacity and capability to manufacture. At the same time they have capacity and capability to go non RF route so obviously that would be chosen for backhauls instead. Simple utilization of strong points of having established industrial base. Even commercial 60GHz point to point backhaul link would require lot to jam as by nature it attenuates. On top of that add simple ad hoc traffic to fool enemy at the application level and it will be cat and mouse game. Very directed and capable RF jammer would be required. On other side, if I have click and replace capability due to my industrial base then I'm going with that as all headaches of rf links are gone and throughput goes up with no ad hoc masking of traffic required. No jamming just upping throughput and hardening.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Anoop » 19 Sep 2020 19:38

This thread moves very quickly, so I apologize if this interview with Lt. Gen. Pannu (Retd) has already been posted and discussed here. If not, this is a good one to watch entirely.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aq477SWjf-U

Some highlights:

1. In border meetings, the PLA still continues to refer to 1962 and threaten that future battles will go worse for the IA. It shows how much the political commissar's talking points weigh on the local commanders' minds, irrespective of the ground realities.

2. No more outflanking moves by PLA possible either in Ladakh or in AP, so any further gains can come only by head-on attacks on our strongholds, which even if successful (unlikely) will be too costly.

3. Chinese may have made a miscalculation about the world's response to their provocations and they need Pakistan more now to overcome their current predicament.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby hnair » 19 Sep 2020 19:39

amar_p wrote:If the stand off continues for next several months, some part of Chinese troops will eventually acclimatise. Sitting it out will only help the Chinese to improve their deployments, logistics etc. And they will get better idea of IA reposts each time they tickle us.

India will be better off making further decisive moves sooner than later.


amar_p, rpartha, adding to what jamwal’s excellent post:

Going up the hills is somewhat similar to coming up after a long SCUBA. You need to acclimatize slowly. Ideally it takes days and that is why Siachen troops hangout at various base camps for weeks before going up for tours of 60 days etc. But in Scuba, even with piped air, you don’t have that much time. So you use a hyperbaric chamber to increase the rate of acclimatization to reduced pressure. I am not going into the “bends” issue of nitrogen bubbles of SCUBA, but basically it is about acclimating body to lower pressure situation . What really helps in compressing the time for SCUBA is that human physiology and genetically disposition is towards sea level pressures. So you are back to normal after you come out in a few hours out of the chamber. The same works against you in high altitude acclimatize efforts - body wants to go back to normal sea level so you are working against physiology and genetics

High altitude have another issue in addition to pressure: oxygen shortage. PLA oxygen tents is trying a reverse of the SCUBA hyperbaric chambers as well as added feature, by increasing oxygen and pressure to near sea level . But their physiology and genetics works against that approach and hence they need frequent visits to the tent as body never have any incentive to acclimatize due to frequent mimicking of sea level conditions. But the little emperors do not have patience to struggle it out and let the lungs figure out a way over weeks.

A word about genetic disposition. There are free diver communities (for pearl, spear fishing etc) around the world who can withstand tremendous pressure and come up faster than regular guys. Natural selection over centuries have weeded out those who have disadvantaged genetic dispositions (disease, death etc causing lack of success in industry). Similarly Tibetans genes over millennia have weeded out those who can’t survive up there. As do a lot of Indian mountain communities. Not so with a plain dwelling Han or sea shore dwelling moi. We both have to acclimatize painfully over days but still have issues of fatigue and if we use oxygen, our body gets reset to plains conditions :)

Hyperbaric chambers like the DRDO ones are usually used only when there is an onset of HAPE condition which needs plains level pressure/oxygen and they are awaiting for air evacuation to the plains. Like an ER situation. It can’t be used to speed up acclimatization

So SFF gents will calmly watch as the row of stretchers go below them

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby A Nandy » 19 Sep 2020 19:52

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 204153.cms

Arrested scribe Rajeev Sharma was passing information on India's border strategy to Chinese: Police

"Both the Chinese woman and her associate were directors of shell companies in Delhi's Mahipalpur area and they would export medicines to China and in return, would get huge money which they gave to their agents here," Yadav said. Sharma was allegedly contacted by Chinese intelligence officer Michael in 2016 and the scribe allegedly shared sensitive information with him till 2018, the DCP said. He came in contact with Michael through a social media platform and later, also visited China where lucrative offers were made, the police officer said, adding Sharma allegedly started giving sensitive defence information to Chinese intelligence.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Prasad » 19 Sep 2020 20:07

I've read multiple accounts of travelers who took the train into Lhasa from Beijing. Even climbing a simple set of stairs ti the first floor feels like climbing a mountain when they reach and need supplementary oxygen to even sleep. Or else the body is so deprived of oxygen that you can't even fall asleep like normal. Flying in makes it slightly easier bit the bulk of the plagf troops will be coming in by train. Although acclimatization should not be that big of a deal if they were already in Tibet sincere they're TAR focused group armies. The Tanggula pass is at 5000m asl which the rain line has to cross to get to Lhasa.

That said if you guys read the translation off a language specialist in the PLA during 62 (translated into english by his granddaughter) you'll realize how tough it was good them to move up from Xinjiang.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Vips » 19 Sep 2020 20:17

Roop wrote:
D.Mahesh wrote:We lost ground badly in 1962 simply because of misdeployment & v.v.poor leadership.


That, plus the fact that the PLA of 1962 was much tougher and more battle-hardened than today's PLA.


Majority of the chinese had assault rifles, whereas Indian jawans had bolt action rifles with a ration of 200 bullets. Indian soldiers did not even have proper shoes to fight in the Himalayan winter!!!!


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