India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

nam · Post by **nam** » 30 Dec 2020 03:39

Based on IAF Chief's comments today, Services and GoI are not confident that the Chinis intend to go back. Chief doesn't seem to indicate an immediate conflict, however has made it clear that it is China, which will lose globally in a conflict.

Any action by the Chinese will result in immediate classification as Tier 1 threat by US & Europe. They will see China as willing to use force. The Chinis know this.

Regarding the article, there are still tons of people in our security and media, who cannot let go "we are the same people" feelings. The same lot will ask for an invasion in to Tibet..

vnadendla · Post by **vnadendla** » 30 Dec 2020 05:58

Rishirishi wrote:

Gurus please comment on my thoughts.
LAC is some 8-900 km away from any large Chinese city and 3-4000 km away from the main centres. Compared to India, which as 2 advantages. 1 being the landscape which is simpler to defend ? and 2 the LAC is closer to Indian population/troop centers (once the tunnels are complete). By air, LAC is very close to the largest Indian airbases. So now the Chinese will have to keep a permanent troop concentration on 100K plus solders ? Because India will be able to bring on large troop concentrations within very short time (once the road infrastructure is complete).

Worse for them
1) cannot be fixed. There is a reason why Tibet cannot support large cities nearby
2) we can easily build more big cities even closer to border on our side with time.

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 30 Dec 2020 06:49

What are the chances PLAAF may try to do some swift Kungfu and claim some quick victory Napaki style... there won’t be any physical presence needed on the border and they can claim all that they want ... may be even use their energetic dragon plane and claim they are better than Khan

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 30 Dec 2020 08:01

X-Post from the IAF: News & Discussion thread....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

In case anyone needed pictorial reference for the string of pearls

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 17920?s=20 ---> IAF Chief: There's no target that exists in the 'string of pearls' that cannot be targeted by IAF fighters.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 30 Dec 2020 08:08

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 29985?s=20 ---> Indian electronic intelligence satellite EMISAT carried out a pass over Flag of China PLA positions in occupied Aksai Chin & Tibet. The EMISAT satellite features instrumentation to detect, locate & characterize electromagnetic signals, transmitted by military radar.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 30 Dec 2020 08:12

I think China will not disengage unless India agrees to restore ties and behave as if nothing happened. They will not release military pressure without getting that in return. It will be difficult for India to do that.

They are also using Russia to put pressure on India on quad. The way India can get back at them is by joining US.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 30 Dec 2020 10:00

Rishirishi wrote:

Gurus please comment on my thoughts.
LAC is some 8-900 km away from any large Chinese city and 3-4000 km away from the main centres. Compared to India, which as 2 advantages. 1 being the landscape which is simpler to defend ? and 2 the LAC is closer to Indian population/troop centers (once the tunnels are complete). By air, LAC is very close to the largest Indian airbases. So now the Chinese will have to keep a permanent troop concentration on 100K plus solders ? Because India will be able to bring on large troop concentrations within very short time (once the road infrastructure is complete).[/quote]

To put it simply: Earlier China could have a minimal presence along the LAC while we were partially deployed (e.g. 1 brigade of a division would be forward deployed while the other 2 might be at their peacetime location - albeit close to the LAC e.g. Leh, Gangtok or Tawang. This was because we were no threat to Chinese positions on the LAC.
In the current situation our deployment is quite adequate to defend Ladakh, as long as we occupy the dominating heights, or defensive positions (which we do). We don't need to send more troops than we currently have. If the PLA decides their numbers are not enough to gain territory,
they still cannot ho back to their pre 2020 deployment, as they are uncertain if we will creep up and claim our previously lost territory in the
Depsang plain, or Pangong Tso fingers.
So, if the status quo continues, the extra no of PLA deployed in Ladakh would exceed ours, as would the cost of maintaining each PLA soldier
compared to ours.

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 30 Dec 2020 16:22

The latest critical window for India - Sino-Napak preparing for misadventure between 06th Jan to 20th Jan 2021 as the world will be busy in the USA power transition and it might not be as smooth as it was in the past.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 30 Dec 2020 17:29

Cost could be higher for China but their economy is also bigger

nam · Post by **nam** » 30 Dec 2020 18:32

The additional cost is loosing out on 60B( and increasing) worth of exports in to India. And a threat on western border, backed by US. China's own 2 front war.

That is along with the cost of maintaining PLA on LAC.

If Pak & Chinis make a formal defence pact, we should go in for a pact, to move across LAC if Taiwan is attacked.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 30 Dec 2020 19:16

manjgu wrote:Cost could be higher for China but their economy is also bigger

Cost to CCP, PLA and it’s leadership could be much higher. But you are right about the economy.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 31 Dec 2020 01:43

RKumar wrote:The latest critical window for India - Sino-Napak preparing for misadventure between 06th Jan to 20th Jan 2021 as the world will be busy in the USA power transition and it might not be as smooth as it was in the past.

Now go back and listen to ACM Bahduria speech at VIF

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 31 Dec 2020 08:28

Rakesh wrote:X-Post from the IAF: News & Discussion thread....
In case anyone needed pictorial reference for the string of pearls

The picture shows that China's notion of 'First Island Chain' is being extended all the way to the Gulf.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 31 Dec 2020 10:46

The question (as an uninformed arm chair warrior) is - why should we always play defense? I did not hear the good ACM's speech but there is enough quality firepower (with IA, IAF and IN) which if used with an appropriate strategic vision and tactics, could be lethal for the enemy. Should India strike pre-emptively on the 5th instead of waiting? Quite like the action to take control of the heights earlier in this standoff if war is imminent, India should launch the first crippling strike to take out/blunt the enemy's offensive capability. With Pak where targets are probably very well defined, they should not hesitate to take stronger action and wipe out the F16s on the ground.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 31 Dec 2020 16:54

Vivek K wrote:The question (as an uninformed arm chair warrior) is - why should we always play defense? I did not hear the good ACM's speech but there is enough quality firepower (with IA, IAF and IN) which if used with an appropriate strategic vision and tactics, could be lethal for the enemy. Should India strike pre-emptively on the 5th instead of waiting? Quite like the action to take control of the heights earlier in this standoff if war is imminent, India should launch the first crippling strike to take out/blunt the enemy's offensive capability. With Pak where targets are probably very well defined, they should not hesitate to take stronger action and wipe out the F16s on the ground.

Its not about `always playing defence'. The role of our armed forces is to defend our country, not attack someone else's country with no provocation.
Therefore, when we do fight a war, it is a morally just war.
In the current situation we are far off from a war either with Pak or China. We are also far from being able to gain territory outside our currently
administered borders, or claim victory, if we do go to war (no matter what jingos here may claim). Fortunately, the same situation is true of Pak and China. In a no-war situation, we use the time gained to reduce our infrastructure and weapons gap with China, while allowing Pak's falling economy to pull its armed forces down with it. Diplomatically, China is increasingly seen as the new `Evil empire', Pakistan as a failed state and India as the responsible emerging superpower.

nam · Post by **nam** » 31 Dec 2020 17:17

Another aspect is that being seen as "benign" makes us more acceptable as we move towards 10T GDP and above. We are not seen as threat and a nation which will not use force, unless attacked. Getting towards the 10T is our biggest priority.

Chini's wolf warriors and Pak's "freedom fighters" has been very useful for us to make friends.

vnadendla · Post by **vnadendla** » 31 Dec 2020 18:21

vnadendla wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:

Gurus please comment on my thoughts.
LAC is some 8-900 km away from any large Chinese city and 3-4000 km away from the main centres. Compared to India, which as 2 advantages. 1 being the landscape which is simpler to defend ? and 2 the LAC is closer to Indian population/troop centers (once the tunnels are complete). By air, LAC is very close to the largest Indian airbases. So now the Chinese will have to keep a permanent troop concentration on 100K plus solders ? Because India will be able to bring on large troop concentrations within very short time (once the road infrastructure is complete).
Worse for them
1) cannot be fixed. There is a reason why Tibet cannot support large cities nearby
2) we can easily build more big cities even closer to border on our side with time.

Like this - 100 villages near border proposed to be developed.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... LD24O.html

RaviB · Post by **RaviB** » 31 Dec 2020 18:49

Rakesh wrote:X-Post from the IAF: News & Discussion thread....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

In case anyone needed pictorial reference for the string of pearls

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 17920?s=20 ---> IAF Chief: There's no target that exists in the 'string of pearls' that cannot be targeted by IAF fighters.

I have argued this before that the string of pearls can be considered a noose, if we are in we will loose only mode

rajpa wrote:

but it can also be thought of as a plate of gulab jamun. It is less escalatory than hitting Chengdu and yet all of them are nice juicy and vulnerable targets and destroying them will have a nice strategic payoff even in the long term. What are the Chinese going to do if the next time they do something in Panggong Tso, we send a sub to Hambantota? Or humanitarian assistance to Djibouti in an IAF plane? Or an SSB training mission in Maldives?

These are not pearls, they are gulab jaamuns, these are accupressure points ripe for the squeezing.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 31 Dec 2020 20:50

Rakesh wrote:X-Post from the IAF: News & Discussion thread....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

In case anyone needed pictorial reference for the string of pearls

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 17920?s=20 ---> IAF Chief: There's no target that exists in the 'string of pearls' that cannot be targeted by IAF fighters.

This is a very interesting comment by IAF and has political implications all over.

This is the first official statement I've seen from GOI* , and specifically a miitary leader, that talks about targetting an enemy facility on foreign (non-Chinese) soil. All of the 'pearls/gulab jamuns' sit in non-Chinese countries- Sri LAnka, Maldives, Burma, Djibouti etc.

ACM Bahaduria has put these countries on notice that their Chinese bases on thier soil can expect to get targeted should China attack India.

(Its high time these other countries know the seriousness of what they are doing- they are enabling a regressive and repressive dictatorial regime by allowing China to base military hardware/logistics on their soil, and the is a pretty serious matter for long-term stability of international polity.)

(* Maybe the other statement to this end was made by MEA(?) ~ 1.5 months ago that India will fight on foreign soil, and it was speculated in these pages that Bhutan was being implied. Gilgit/Baltistan was the other putative entity.)

The follow-up question would be whether these countries have any pact with China to protect Chinese military hardware from attack using their own air forces/SAM sites- which means these counties will be entering the war from China' side.

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 31 Dec 2020 21:18

SriKumar wrote:(Its high time these other countries know the seriousness of what they are doing- they are enabling a regressive and repressive dictatorial regime by allowing China to base military hardware/logistics on their soil, and the is a pretty serious matter for long-term stability of international polity.)

With regards to Sri Lanka, Burma as these are Buddhist nations, does the Dalai Lama not have any influence ???
Can he not play a diplomatic role ?

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 31 Dec 2020 21:32

^^^^^Budhdhism has Mahayana and Heenayana sects.... Dalai Lama at most represents Mahayana... no influence on Heenayana sect of Budhdhism in Burma or Srilanka.

Koreans (about 2%population) follow Mahayana, so do Japanese.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 31 Dec 2020 22:18

nam wrote:Another aspect is that being seen as "benign" makes us more acceptable as we move towards 10T GDP and above. We are not seen as threat and a nation which will not use force, unless attacked. Getting towards the 10T is our biggest priority.

Chini's wolf warriors and Pak's "freedom fighters" has been very useful for us to make friends.

What are the benefits of appearing benign? A soft state whose softness was exploited to the fullest by both NaPak and China? Is a soft state respected by neighbors like Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Burma, Maldives and others?

In the present case, India will not be looked at as an aggressor since China attacked us at Galwan and has refused to back down despite our requests for diplomacy and peace. I'm not advocating war but we shouldn't be seen as weak. India needs to be seen as "at the ready and prepared to respond asymmetrically".

Getting towards 10T cannot dictate national security though it is a great goal.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 31 Dec 2020 23:01

I think it goes without saying that China will (and has) attack (ed) India before India gets to a point where it can credibly be seen as stronger than China. Why would China wait? To the contrary, if China knows India will get to a point of parity beyond which there is no turning back, it will be their priority to hit India before India gets to that milestone.

Their worldwide ambitions are quite well-known and nothing is being hidden anymore. So, by definition, India can expect to get attacked prior to a 10T (or 20T) economy or what is the milestone for parity. China never stopped taking territory in bits and pieces, and otherwise challenging the border when it is not actively taking Indian territory. They are currently working on taking villages in Nepal and creating settlements in Bhutan even in the last 2 months as has been documented in these pages. (In other words, appearing benign has worn out its usefulness. The question is whether appearing benign is a necessity at this stage and if it is, there is some merit to appearances. But it is pretty clear that being benign will not work with China).

nam · Post by **nam** » 01 Jan 2021 00:33

Currency fraud by the Chinis over the years. In 94 they devalued their currency by 60%

https://www.macrotrends.net/2575/us-dol ... ical-chart

Chinis were 2.7T GDP in 2006. After that they started adding almost 1T to their GDP, using growth and currency manipulation!

Here is GDP over the years:

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+gdp+ ... e&ie=UTF-8

2015 to 16, their GDP went from 11.02 to 11.14T , only 138 Billion!

nam · Post by **nam** » 01 Jan 2021 00:45

Our obsession with imports, added with market currency, has caused our military not being able to equip itself for the 2 front threat we face. It is time our service heads and policy maker come to their sense and use local kit, without which we are seriously degrading our national security.

To put it in simple terms, we will never have the required kit. The more we delay going local, more expensive our local kit will become due to inflation.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 01 Jan 2021 02:37

Totally agree about the obsession with imports. It is remarkable that faced with such an existential threat, we look to ridiculously expensive gold plated imports for salvation. If we fight China in January, there will be 8 Rafales (2 two seaters included), maybe another 3 will join. LCA deliveries should have been expedited instead - all efforts should have been made to ensure all suppliers to HAL had everything they needed to deliver on time (fundamentals of vendor development for mass production). Some things never change.

However, with a force structure that does not fully meet requirements, I would rather set the terms of the engagement. Defending would be more difficult. I would rather attack well and destroy/degrade the enemy's offensive capability to limit/deter the attack. Sitting and waiting for the attack does not make sense. You cannot defend against cruise missile attacks and hope that your capabilities survive to retaliate.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 01 Jan 2021 02:47

nam wrote:Currency fraud by the Chinis over the years. In 94 they devalued their currency by 60%

https://www.macrotrends.net/2575/us-dol ... ical-chart

Chinis were 2.7T GDP in 2006. After that they started adding almost 1T to their GDP, using growth and currency manipulation!

Here is GDP over the years:

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+gdp+ ... e&ie=UTF-8

2015 to 16, their GDP went from 11.02 to 11.14T , only 138 Billion!

Do we have the vision and the balls to do what they did? India throws all her money on farmers while chasing industrialists to the ends of the world to arrest them for failures. The rich farmers are the source for all money laundering. This fixation on farms being some kind of favors to humanity while industrialists being thieves is propagated to keep India poor. Farms should be run as industries and have the same benefits for both. Both farming and industry are important, the latter more so.

In the 90s, Chinese flooded the world with cheap products (lower than raw material costs). Their industries made huge losses but instead of throwing them in jail, they re-capitalized their banks and made cheap capital available so their industry could develop and make the world depend on them. This was an extremely risky strategy. However, because they stuck with it, they're now reaping the benefits. On the other hand Indian industry setup in the 90s was wiped out and their owners either committed suicide or had heart attacks and died.

Does the Indian population (ruling party, opposition) have the ability to come together and revive domestic industry? We could be world beaters.

rajpa · Post by **rajpa** » 01 Jan 2021 10:35

RaviB wrote:
Rakesh wrote:X-Post from the IAF: News & Discussion thread....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

In case anyone needed pictorial reference for the string of pearls

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 17920?s=20 ---> IAF Chief: There's no target that exists in the 'string of pearls' that cannot be targeted by IAF fighters.
I have argued this before that the string of pearls can be considered a noose, if we are in we will loose only mode

rajpa wrote:

but it can also be thought of as a plate of gulab jamun. It is less escalatory than hitting Chengdu and yet all of them are nice juicy and vulnerable targets and destroying them will have a nice strategic payoff even in the long term. What are the Chinese going to do if the next time they do something in Panggong Tso, we send a sub to Hambantota? Or humanitarian assistance to Djibouti in an IAF plane? Or an SSB training mission in Maldives?

These are not pearls, they are gulab jaamuns, these are accupressure points ripe for the squeezing.

We must loosen our purse strings and invest in these pearls.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 01 Jan 2021 11:11

rajpa wrote:
RaviB wrote: I have argued this before that the string of pearls can be considered a noose, if we are in we will loose only mode

but it can also be thought of as a plate of gulab jamun. It is less escalatory than hitting Chengdu and yet all of them are nice juicy and vulnerable targets and destroying them will have a nice strategic payoff even in the long term. What are the Chinese going to do if the next time they do something in Panggong Tso, we send a sub to Hambantota? Or humanitarian assistance to Djibouti in an IAF plane? Or an SSB training mission in Maldives?

These are not pearls, they are gulab jaamuns, these are accupressure points ripe for the squeezing.
We must loosen our purse strings and invest in these pearls.

I think the opposite is true. China is investing Billions on a high risk strategy of bases around us - all of which are easily accessible by IN/ IAF but thousands of miles from China and also unable to offer mutual support to each other.
India, by being better integrated with the Quad and having basing rights in other countries can have bases at negligible cost in :
Coco's islands - Off Indonesia( Australian), Vietnam, Japan, Diego Garcia, Seychelles, Oman. There's an additional possibility of Chabahar,
Our presence in any of these bases - which we can activate at short notice, would present a huge risk to the 8000 strong Chinese fleet that can be interdicted by a single sub, surface raider, or P8I in these bases.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 01 Jan 2021 14:58

nam wrote:Another aspect is that being seen as "benign" makes us more acceptable as we move towards 10T GDP and above. We are not seen as threat and a nation which will not use force, unless attacked. Getting towards the 10T is our biggest priority.

Chini's wolf warriors and Pak's "freedom fighters" has been very useful for us to make friends.

I doubt if we can reach 10T GDP in any reasonable time frame.

nam · Post by **nam** » 01 Jan 2021 16:14

This is bit OT, but relevant for national security, as everything fundamentally depends on money.

Getting shown as 10T Dollar economy has multiple factors. As the Chinis have shown, you can get there using currency manipulation. Instead of R 70 to a dollar, what if we are Rs 7, like the Chinese? We will be more than 25T in GDP on paper... ofcourse it will crush our exports.

Our objective should be to have enough money to be able to afford (citizen or GoI) whatever is required. For that things should be produced in India. That means being better and investing in technology.

If Indian companies can produce parts for Iphone, it doesn't matter if Indians cannot buy a Iphone. We will create an affordable phone with the same parts.

So let's get contract & export manufacturing in every field possible, just like the Chinis are doing. As long as we are producing everything that the world wants, it doesn't matter if we are struck at 3T in dollar terms..

nam · Post by **nam** » 01 Jan 2021 16:21

The most wonderful example is the Vaccine for the Chinese virus. SII doling out billion doses at 3 dollar each. This capability allows us to cater to our population, despite not being a 10T GDP like US, Europe or China.

Our objective should be to achieve what SII has done.

nam · Post by **nam** » 01 Jan 2021 16:32

Our boys dominating the top on finger. The Chinese camps are visible in the valley below. A wonderful artillery target, if the balloon goes up.

Kakarat · Post by **Kakarat** » 01 Jan 2021 16:45

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/13 ... 1195439106

I don't think chinese would have expected this

chola · Post by **chola** » 01 Jan 2021 17:43

nam wrote:This is bit OT, but relevant for national security, as everything fundamentally depends on money.

Getting shown as 10T Dollar economy has multiple factors. As the Chinis have shown, you can get there using currency manipulation. Instead of R 70 to a dollar, what if we are Rs 7, like the Chinese? We will be more than 25T in GDP on paper... ofcourse it will crush our exports.

Nam ji, Cheen manipulates DOWNWARD to cheat on exports. No trading nation (Japan, Korea, Cheen) manipulates its currency upwards, it is always downward to cheat.

Cheen is 6.5 to 1USD and the US still think the Yuan is undervalued. The chini exports boom in spite of the Wuhan virus and the trade war tariffs proves the US is right.

Basically Cheen is pretending to be a $10T economy when it is actually much bigger to STEAL export share from poorer nations -- including India.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 Jan 2021 18:00

https://www.followcn.com/xi-jinping-to- ... urysm/amp/
Xi Jinping to undergo surgery due to worsening intracranial aneurysm

The supreme leader of the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping will undergo surgery due to a worsening intracranial aneurysm, reported by Mr. Lude during his evening YouTube live show on Dec 27.

Xi has already received multiple interventional treatments, but the condition is worsening and he could become unconscious at any moment, according to additional information provided by Mr. Lude on Monday morning.

Xi has established his own “National Special Crisis Office” for the transition of power in case he cannot rule the country due to his health condition. This newly created office is replacing the “Standing Committee” of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, abandoning the “group-leadership” of the CCP designed to avoid Mao Zedong’s mistakes of one-person-to-bring-down-a-country. Xi’s younger brother Xi Yuanping and Xi’s loyalists like Xu Qiliang and Ding Xuexiang are in the special office to ensure the continuity of Xi’s “dynasty”.

How credible?

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 01 Jan 2021 19:54

I hope he dies on the operation table because that is probably the only way out of this situation. The hans have no reason to stay in such a desolate area anymore, now that all possible objectives have failed. The only reason they are still there is Xi's ego.

While this increases the burden of opex in our armed forces but this is also a good tradeoff in terms of speeding up Capex and more domestic manufacturing.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Jan 2021 23:25

vijayk wrote:https://www.followcn.com/xi-jinping-to- ... urysm/amp/
Xi Jinping to undergo surgery due to worsening intracranial aneurysm

The supreme leader of the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping will undergo surgery due to a worsening intracranial aneurysm, reported by Mr. Lude during his evening YouTube live show on Dec 27.

Xi has already received multiple interventional treatments, but the condition is worsening and he could become unconscious at any moment, according to additional information provided by Mr. Lude on Monday morning.

Xi has established his own “National Special Crisis Office” for the transition of power in case he cannot rule the country due to his health condition. This newly created office is replacing the “Standing Committee” of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, abandoning the “group-leadership” of the CCP designed to avoid Mao Zedong’s mistakes of one-person-to-bring-down-a-country. Xi’s younger brother Xi Yuanping and Xi’s loyalists like Xu Qiliang and Ding Xuexiang are in the special office to ensure the continuity of Xi’s “dynasty”.

How credible?

In the 19th Congress thread, I had said, Xi Jin Ping is different than the party hacks who succeeded Mao.
He is like Mao himself and closer to the early Tang Dynasty.

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 01 Jan 2021 23:28

Incredible

nam · Post by **nam** » 02 Jan 2021 02:11

We need Xi or Xi like character in China. More they get over confident of their power, more trouble they will create.

And China creating trouble is what we want.