India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

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nam
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nam »

What we want from Quad, i.e. US & Japan is economic. Move their companies from China in to India.

We can manage other things ourselves.

If ballon goes up in the short term, USAF deploying F35 in classified ops would be very useful....
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ArjunPandit »

Speculative domain, but US put a nuclear device to track soviet tests along the border, (which was lost) ...india had supplied ammunition to taiwan too...so i think these things would be there..but deploying US planes i dont think would be up on table..may be drones for surveillance and monitoring ..keeping tab of their submarines .getting done with cyber attacks..i think in any major war china would certainly use that capability to begin with..would be a shame if powers that be havent planned/gamed that properly..
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Pratyush »

In a shooting war with PRC I don't expect any military assistance from the QUAD.

We can receive some logistical support from the American's as a result of the treaties signed between the two nations. But it will not be enough to make a real difference in the outcome of the fight.

Dhruvastra, and its jet launched cousins will be more useful then any Hellfire supplied by the Americans. So will various indigenous munition's and guidance kits. The MOD has to be wiped in shape to make sure that these munitions are ordered by the 10s of thousands.

Or else at the time of crisis you will see Indian officials traveling to various capitals asking for a few thousand of this and a few thousand of that. which in tern will be presented as a huge accomplishment by the media.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramana »

So what's status of Dhruvastra? Trials? Production?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by arshyam »

ArjunPandit wrote:Speculative domain, but US put a nuclear device to track soviet tests along the border, (which was lost)
Not Soviets, but to track Chinese nuclear activity in greater Tibet. This was accompanied by special recce flights flown by Biju Patnaik's aviation company. Both were done with the concurrence of GoI, of course.

The initiative waned by the late sixties, along with US-China rapproachment, and we moved closer to the Soviets. Even before the Paki midwifing of the first US visit to China, there was a growing realization in the US that China could be useful against the Soviets. Things had turned around fully by 1971.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Cyrano »

Prem Kumar
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Prem Kumar »

We need to count drone intrusions & infiltration of jihadis as "ceasefire violations". The current ceasefire with Pakis are more beneficial to them than us

1) They still get away with the above things
2) We've given them a breather to play mischief in Afghanistan, during US withdrawal
3) They will break the ceasefire at a time & place of their choosing anyway
4) We don't pro-actively break the ceasefire, which makes us predictable

What we got was some pressure-relief from our Western border, to focus more on China.

For all we know, the whole Chinese Ladakh incursion could have had a secondary agenda: to force a 2 front situation, due to which we'll be happy with a ceasefire with Pakistan, freeing up both Pakis and the Chinese to meddle with Afghanistan
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Kakkaji »

BRO constructs highest motorable road of the world in eastern Ladakh
The Border Roads Organisation (BRO) has constructed the highest motorable road in the world at the height of 19,300 feet at Umlingla Pass in eastern Ladakh, the defence ministry said on Wednesday.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by LakshmanPST »

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1423601843062468608?s=19
As per agreement reached during Corps Commander talks, both sides (India-China) ceased forward deployments in PP-17 in phased, coordinated & verified manner. Disengagement process was carried out over 4-5 Aug'21. Both sides are now in their respective permanent bases.

All temporary structures and other allied infrastructure created in the area by both sides have been dismantled and mutually verified. The landform in the area has been restored by both sides to pre-stand off period.

This agreement ensures that the LAC in this area will be strictly observed and respected by both sides, and that there is no unilateral change in status quo.

With this one more sensitive area of face-off has been resolved. Both sides have expressed commitment to take the talks forward and resolve the remaining issues along the LAC in the Western Sector.

The Indian Army along with ITBP is totally committed to ensure the sovereignty of the nation and maintain peace & tranquility along the LAC in the Western Sector: Indian Army
I guess PP-17 is Gogra... Not sure though...

EDIT:- As per Nitin Gokhale, PP17A comprises both Gogra and Hot-Springs... PP15 is near Hot-Springs that is yet to be resolved which will be taken up next...
Further, Depsang is pending... And Demchok only has a few tents near Charding Nala I guess...
https://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status ... 59428?s=19
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Deans »

Prem Kumar wrote:We need to count drone intrusions & infiltration of jihadis as "ceasefire violations". The current ceasefire with Pakis are more beneficial to them than us

1) They still get away with the above things
2) We've given them a breather to play mischief in Afghanistan, during US withdrawal
3) They will break the ceasefire at a time & place of their choosing anyway
4) We don't pro-actively break the ceasefire, which makes us predictable

What we got was some pressure-relief from our Western border, to focus more on China.
For all we know, the whole Chinese Ladakh incursion could have had a secondary agenda: to force a 2 front situation, due to which we'll be happy with a ceasefire with Pakistan, freeing up both Pakis and the Chinese to meddle with Afghanistan
Prem Ji, I have a slightly different take. Of course, we have to count drones as a CF violation. My sense is infiltration of jihadis has come down because attempts have to be backed up by covering fire.

We were not violating the CF, but reacting to what Pal was doing. If our boys can patrol the LOC with a reduced danger of being shot at and a
lesser chance of infiltration, the CF works in our favor. Pak patrolling along the LOC is less than ours as they don't have to worry about infiltration from our side.

I don't see Pak moving any troops east to do mischief in Afg, just because there is a ceasefire in the West. In any case, its not the Army's job to prevent Pak from acting in Afghanistan. Unkil has to do that.

I agree that Pak will break it at a time of their choosing. But until they do so, we can focus on China. China has only a 2 month window to act, before snow shuts down campaigning in Ladakh. By next Spring, a lot of infrastructure gap will have been reduced. It China was unable to act in 2020 or 2021, I don't see them doing it next year. Next year will also (in my opinion) be the third consecutive year of reduced militancy in Kashmir
and a greater acceptance of the reality of the abrogation of article 370. The result will be a smaller pool of local militants and more difficulty for infiltrating militants to get local support.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by stephen »

"I don't see Pak moving any troops east to do mischief in Afg, just because there is a ceasefire in the West. In any case, its not the Army's job to prevent Pak from acting in Afghanistan. Unkil has to do that.

The ceasefire on its eastern border has given the pukes some space to concentrate on its western border and focus on helping their bunnies to take over Afghanistan, most probably their army is also actively involved in the fighting. This has been the disadvantage of the ceasefire for our interests in Afghanistan. We could have been pounding the LoC outposts and doing raids to give the Afghan Army some breather, as the PA wont have been able to actively concentrate on two fronts. Right now they have a free run to concentrate on taking over Afghanistan and funneling their meager resources into this.
The advantage is that we are able to concentrate on the lizards. Another advantage which the IA will fully utilize is upgrading the infra even in our most remote outposts without the fear of attacks happening at construction sites. This is the time to make sure that our soldiers have the best infrastructure that we can design and construct. This is the best time for all the strengthening work.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Cyrano »

With some hindsight, its clear why the Pakis were willing to the ceasefire agreement on the LoC - to be able to move their troops away from LoC and focus to western Afghan border and the Durand line following the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. By issuing highly mediated statements that Pak will not lend its bases to US etc repeatedly, they have pushed US to mediate this LoC Ceasefire with India, which the US did quickly in its own interest since Bidenwa had announced hard dates for withdrawal and time was running out.

The Pakis probably negotiated with US to get India to agree to LoC ceasefire and keep things calm there in exchange for overland flight (over Paki air space) of US aircraft and drones based in UAE which cant fly over Iran, to take a circuitous route going east from UAE over Arabian Sea, then turning North over Pak and then turn west and cross into Afghanistan.

Which explains how suddenly the LoC ceasefire agreement came about and took everyone by surprise.

That doesn't stop Pakis from needling India by sending drones - using some clever interpretation of the ceasefire agreement + ever present deniability of non-state actors, and India is hesitating to react since we are much more attached to keeping our word and therefore won't escalate.

What did India get from US in exchange for agreeing to the LoC ceasefire? I'm not sure...
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by SRajesh »

Cyranoji
What's with the news of about 120 waiting at the launch pads??
Can there be a pre-emptive strike.
Afghan bunnies and these guys post September may cause serious mischief!
Will the terms of Cease-fire agreements prevent us from Balakot-2!!
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by jamwal »

There is news of a random number of terrorists on paki side waiting to cross every few months since 90s. Unless there is another "surgical strike", it is not even a news worth posting here.
Talibanis will be get busy fighting each other if and when Afghan govt surrenders. No need to lose sleep over them in near future.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by S_Madhukar »

We can always target even “alleged” camps, who in the world is going to prove Baki innocence specially with their ghalibs running around in Afpak… we set a precedent, now we should carry on Balakoting and call them defensive and preventive strikes
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramana »

China is sticking to the gradual agrewment on each area of contention and not a overall blanket agreement. Must be for internal optics.
At this rate it will close to December before they vacate Depsang.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Pratyush »

ramana wrote:China is sticking to the gradual agrewment on each area of contention and not a overall blanket agreement. Must be for internal optics.
At this rate it will close to December before they vacate Depsang.
This delay also ties nicely into any potential plan the PRC might be having to teach India a lesson. By October or November.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Deans »

Pratyush wrote:
ramana wrote:China is sticking to the gradual agrewment on each area of contention and not a overall blanket agreement. Must be for internal optics.
At this rate it will close to December before they vacate Depsang.
This delay also ties nicely into any potential plan the PRC might be having to teach India a lesson. By October or November.
Just the opposite. If they want to teach us a lesson in Oct-Nov, they have to start building up their forces now (all across the LAC), not de-escalating.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by chandrabhan »

Rohit, would you be kind enough to post your views on this new agreement at LAC - recent one on 4/5th August? What are the implications and have we lost some land or claims? PP17 is where this should be about? Are there further implications on Depsang plains and Demchok?

Ramana Sir, your views as well
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shyamd »

Cyrano wrote:With some hindsight, its clear why the Pakis were willing to the ceasefire agreement on the LoC - to be able to move their troops away from LoC and focus to western Afghan border and the Durand line following the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. By issuing highly mediated statements that Pak will not lend its bases to US etc repeatedly, they have pushed US to mediate this LoC Ceasefire with India, which the US did quickly in its own interest since Bidenwa had announced hard dates for withdrawal and time was running out.

The Pakis probably negotiated with US to get India to agree to LoC ceasefire and keep things calm there in exchange for overland flight (over Paki air space) of US aircraft and drones based in UAE which cant fly over Iran, to take a circuitous route going east from UAE over Arabian Sea, then turning North over Pak and then turn west and cross into Afghanistan.

Which explains how suddenly the LoC ceasefire agreement came about and took everyone by surprise.

That doesn't stop Pakis from needling India by sending drones - using some clever interpretation of the ceasefire agreement + ever present deniability of non-state actors, and India is hesitating to react since we are much more attached to keeping our word and therefore won't escalate.

What did India get from US in exchange for agreeing to the LoC ceasefire? I'm not sure...
No hindsight required at all. GOI was well aware of the game all along. the problem was PLA + C-19 wave happening at the same time.

You can read my post in May saying the same will happen - Link
TSPA - GOI peace talks.
TSPA need to focus on taking over Afghanistan. Regional challengers like Iran have kick started ops to battle for influence in key districts and provinces. Major recruitment drives underway in afghan population in Iran. ISI is most worried about Pashtun population/influencers being swayed by Iran.

TSPA are diverting terror groups etc to northern borders to cement the take over once US/NATO troops leave.

At a time when GOI should be upping the ante, GOI is caught dealing with COVID-19. Hopefully India will be out of its predicament by July.

Nat sec community fully aware of above and have been speaking with key people in Afghanistan, Iran and former Northern Alliance figures.
Afghan govt is likely to fall 'within weeks' is what the NATO wallas are saying... Problem for Biden is that this fall was likely to happen before the pullout was complete so they were forced to up the ante to prevent embarrasment

GOI is trying to manage any criticism of it's (relatively) minimal support.
Afghan govt wants IAF support to crush Taliban as fighting worsens across the country
Kabul: In an unprecedented move, the Ashraf Ghani government has sought “robust air support” from India as the fight between the Afghan government forces and the Taliban insurgents grew more intense in the last couple of days, ThePrint has learnt.

The Afghan government is concerned that the Taliban “will most definitely” escalate their level of violence once the US forces complete the drawdown of troops by 31 August and thus the need for air support from New Delhi is now being aggressively pushed by Kabul, top sources in the Afghan government told ThePrint, requesting anonymity.

The government in Afghanistan wants the Indian Air Force (IAF) to come into the country and support the Afghan Air Force given that General Kenneth McKenzie, chief of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), made clear that America will not give support after 31 August, sources added
.

While the request for air support is not new, the Ghani government is “extremely concerned” that the Taliban will now accelerate its violent actions across the country as it continues to make rapid advances. It’s latest advance is happening in Mazar-i-Sharif where fighting intensified Monday.

The matter is believed to have been discussed during a recent phone call between Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Haneef Atmar and India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

However, it appears New Delhi made it clear that it will not be able to take “such a drastic step” as India has never believed in these kinds of “counterterrorism mechanisms”.

Also read: Afghanistan braces for civil war as peace talks with Taliban are seen as dead

Troika Plus meeting in Doha
All eyes are once again on Doha now as the Qatari capital gears up to host yet another meeting of the peace process under the ‘Troika Plus’ as part of the intra-Afghan dialogue between Afghan government representatives and the Taliban leaders.


The meeting of the Troika Plus, also known as the Extended Troika, which has been called by Moscow, will take place amongst the US, Russia, Pakistan and China.

According to sources, the original plan by Moscow was to invite all regional stakeholders, including India as well as Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. However, that did not fructify and it seems now that the meeting, which begins Tuesday at Doha, will have to take some “tough calls” as the Taliban increases its offensive.

“Air power plays a critical role in the Afghan counterinsurgency, and US air power — long a difference-maker in Afghanistan — will soon be removed from the battlefield equation. So it’s not altogether surprising that Kabul would lean on India, one of its closest friends in the region, for such support. But for New Delhi, even with its grave concerns about Taliban advances, the costs of providing such assistance greatly outweigh the benefits,” said Michael Kugelman, deputy director and senior associate for South Asia, Wilson Center.


He added, “The last thing India would want is to get dragged into the war in Afghanistan, and to inflame tensions in a relationship with Pakistan that is already deeply strained. The use of Indian air power in Afghanistan would be a game-changer with destabilizing regional impacts that New Delhi would much prefer to avoid.”

On the Troika Plus meeting, which will be taking place at a time when Afghanistan is seeing unprecedented bloodshed, Kugelman said that even if these dialogues do not yield desired results, regional powers need to talk amongst themselves and find a solution.

“It’s easy to shrug off the latest regional diplomatic effort to resuscitate a peace process that is seemingly dead in the water, but these meetings matter. And they matter even more now with the US withdrawal. The US and its NATO partners have the luxury of withdrawing and knowing that they won’t be directly impacted by the spill-over effects of war. The regional players have no such luxury,” he said.

“Regional solutions are essential, even if they are and will continue to be elusive. It’s also significant to see, once again, the US decoupling tensions with its Russian and Chinese rivals to cooperate on shared concerns about Afghanistan. This is a silver lining in an otherwise gloomy state of affairs,” he added.

The Troika Plus last met in April this year when it urged for peaceful settlement in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, the UN Security Council meeting on Afghanistan that took place Sunday under India’s presidency, said that the “Taliban must hear from the international community”.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Cyrano »

Just how will Indian jets fly into Afghanistan if they take off from India? Flying over Pakistan and Iran ? No way. From INS Vikramaditya stationed in the gulf? Same problem. From our air bases in Tajikistan? Not sure we have the required type of aircraft, munitions, supplies and pilots and support crew in large numbers there. In the event of an a/c going down, SAR will be a nightmare. All this for what? To lob million dollar missiles on jihadis riding donkeys and jeeps?

The afghanis demanding this have little clue what they are talking about. The non-Taliban forces in Afghanistan need to get their act together and defend their country.

There is an apt saying in Telugu: How far can you push the ass of a palm tree climber?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by jamwal »

Their own pilots are deserting and fleet is in doldrums. Their own troops are not willing to fight talibanis, why should Indians?
India should aid Afghanistan govt only to hurt Pakistan. It is not like the Afghan society has ever shown any tolerance to Hindus and other non-muslims. They are trying to be friendly with India only because of the war and pakistani support for taliban. It is an islamic country with the usual hatred for "kafirs" and Indian blood should not be shed to defend them.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Vips »

Far cheaper option would be to Prop up the Northern Alliance, give them some real force multiplier arms then start to see the fun. It is just a matter of time before Sunny Taliban shows its true colors and pisses of Iran. So India will not be alone in supporting the Northern Alliance.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Deans »

jamwal wrote:Their own pilots are deserting and fleet is in doldrums. Their own troops are not willing to fight talibanis, why should Indians?
Exactly.
The reason provincial capitals are falling so rapidly, is that the local warlord simply decides to switch sides - once he is assured of a cut from the
drug cultivation operations in his region. The Afghan Army has more than enough weaponry to take on the Taliban, if they want to.

The only circumstances under which I see a military role for India, is if the non Pashtun areas of Afghanistan (Hazaras, Tadjik, Uzbeks) appeal for International assistance to resist the Taliban and India is then part of a Multinational UN led peacekeeping force (as we are doing in Congo or South Sudan) operating in only those parts of the country where the people want us. That might ultimately mean 2 Afghanistan's. A Pashtun /Taliban controlled one (which may want to be part of a greater Pashtun nation including parts of Pak) and a Shia (Hazara) led, non Pashtun half.

It would mean the US taking a back seat and a serious commitment of military personnel from several of the leading armies of the world. I don't see either happening.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Deans »

Vips wrote:Far cheaper option would be to Prop up the Northern Alliance, give them some real force multiplier arms then start to see the fun. It is just a matter of time before Sunny Taliban shows its true colors and pisses of Iran. So India will not be alone in supporting the Northern Alliance.
The problem with Iran is that it has never really helped the Hazaras (the only Shia group in Afghanistan and the 2nd largest ethnic group).
The Hazara population is concentrated in Central Afghanistan and does not border Iran. Hazara refugees have been used as low cost cannon fodder in Iran's proxy war in Syria.
The country that can and should prop up the northern alliance is Russia, which can suffer an influx of drugs into Russia, if they have no control over drug smuggling networks through Central Asian and then into Russia. The common language of communication across the different northern alliance groups is Russian and all have Russian origin weapons. However, there is a limit to what Russia can do, since there are bitter memories of Soviet occupation, Russia itself is being bled through sanctions and its proxy war in the Ukraine and the Central Asian countries between Russian and Afghanistan are run by corrupt despots. In theory, Russia could look at its Syria model - where a Russian led force stabilises parts of the country and takes on a UN recognised enemy - in this case the Taliban.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by jamwal »

Hazara and most other Afghani muslim minorities are islamists first. They being massacred by few other better armed islamist groups but all of them are happy to kill non-muslims. They showed their savagery in 1947-48 when they attacked J&K. You help them now, they will happily take all the money, weapons and aid. But will not hesitate to slit your throat few years later. India should protect its interests in Afghanistan just like a venom collector does it with venomous snakes. Keep them well fed as long as it is necessary but at a suitable distance in a cage and more than enough failsafes to destroy them in case they turn against you. Some stupid Indians suddenly developed a soft corner for them after watching/reading Kite Runner.

A huge percentage of American causalities in Afghanistan were due to betrayals and even straight up murders by their own Afghan allies belonging to a wide variety of ethnicities and factions, including those on their direct payrolls. Any move to provide aid to any Afghan faction on a humanitarian basis is just arming your own enemy. If anything, India should be happy to let the fight go on for as long as possible. If they're at peace, a large number of them will end up on our borders. Too many are here already.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Deans »

jamwal wrote:Hazara and most other Afghani muslim minorities are islamists first. They being massacred by few other better armed islamist groups but all of them are happy to kill non-muslims. They showed their savagery in 1947-48 when they attacked J&K. You help them now, they will happily take all the money, weapons and aid. But will not hesitate to slit your throat few years later. India should protect its interests in Afghanistan just like a venom collector does it with venomous snakes. Keep them well fed as long as it is necessary but at a suitable distance in a cage and more than enough failsafes to destroy them in case they turn against you. Some stupid Indians suddenly developed a soft corner for them after watching/reading Kite Runner.

A huge percentage of American causalities in Afghanistan were due to betrayals and even straight up murders by their own Afghan allies belonging to a wide variety of ethnicities and factions, including those on their direct payrolls. Any move to provide aid to any Afghan faction on a humanitarian basis is just arming your own enemy. If anything, India should be happy to let the fight go on for as long as possible. If they're at peace, a large number of them will end up on our borders. Too many are here already.
An excellent summary of what the situation is really like (I used to do business with Afghanistan from 1995-2002).
Kite runner is correct in showing the extent of mindless violence in the country and the futility of trying to do anything about it.
The only time all factions unite, is when there is a foreign invader. Left to themselves, they will be too busy killing each other for control of the only 2 things that contribute to the Afghan economy - Drugs and smuggling into Pak & Iran. The third was foreign aid.

This is a good article about the Afghan mindset, by a fairly liberal writer.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/iv ... mind-21506
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Paul »

There is a Hazara in KPK and then there are the Hazaras of Baluchistan/Afghania. The Hazaras who attacked in J&K are the Hazaras from KPK.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazara,_Pakistan

Are they both the same group ethnically. I think not as I have not read of Shia Hazaras being ethnically cleansed in KPK. Turis of Parchinar are shias and
we read of them gettinng the treatment periodically.

Other groups who attacked in J&K were the Shinwaris and Afridis among others.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramana »

China's 10k WTC troops are exercising with Russia.
Means unsure of LAC.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by SRajesh »

Deans wrote:
jamwal wrote:Hazara and most other Afghani muslim minorities are islamists first.

This is a good article about the Afghan mindset, by a fairly liberal writer.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/iv ... mind-21506
JamwalJi and Deansji
Reading this article reminds me of the behaviour of the young folks from their neighbouring country Paxtan
Gangs of Paxtans have been convicted in UK for Grooming young girls!!
Behaviour is similar : it is our right to take them as 'Spoils of War' to put it crudely!!
In the ??ITV or BBC documentary on their trial the defendant talk about these girls was appalling
Somehow the Middle Eastern people I see are much different especially the Egyptians/Syrians/Turks / Iranians
Is it cultural?? I mean these guys still behave as if they are living in the age of Mohammud of Ghazni and act like that and have that tribal code to honour. :eek:
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nandakumar »

ramana wrote:China's 10k WTC troops are exercising with Russia.
Means unsure of LAC.
Can you please explain? Armies routinely engage with one another isn't it? What's different now?
Thanks
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by S_Madhukar »

I am not so sure our Afghan policy is that great. I mean even now we are paying tribute to the hillybillies in some way or the other Talib or no Talib with whom our borders aren’t close and who may not do our bidding. All our money spent down the drain is really tribute and we will spend more, for what! Looks like we won’t learn from history lessons ranging from Attock to Panipat. It would have been better if we had built our defence and deep penetration capabilities with that money and we would have been respected more in the region
And not sure why we care about if this ethnicity will be friendly to us or not, like someone said we are all kaafirs, why do we expect civilised behaviour from hillybillies and treat our own people with less civility as a nation. I don’t think Karma and goodness concept applies to hillybillies only to civilised folks like us.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shyamd »

Iran and Russia would have to approve of any operation and GOI doesn’t really want to ask them.

What ANA is asking for is logistical and ammunition support mainly which they are critically short of. GOI provided ammunition element (mostly stock that was closest to going out of date)

IAF is short of logistical assets itself …

Jaishankar was in Iran to prep for GOI evacuation of nationals/diplomats - which has been announced today...
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by jamwal »

Hazara is an ethnic group in present day Afghanistan and Pakistan which follows the same ideology and has same practices in both nation. If one is specifically talking about Paki Hazaras, then it should be remembered that they along with Ahmediyas (another persecuted muslim group) made the most noise and efforts to get India divided in 1947. It is not that they've learned a proper lesson after being massacred by their co-religionists for decades.

I am more interested in propping up any anti-Pak faction of Taliban or some other group which wants creation of a Pashtoon nation comprising of Afghan and Pakistani territories. It will be fun to watch strategic depth experts of Pakistan running around like scared pigs. Who gives a shit about survival of any American pasand Afghan central regime. They have a lot of weapons and supplies supplied and left over by NATO forces which are being gifted to Taliban by their own ANA soldiers. Same thing happened in Iraq and Syria where govt soldiers either ran away or surrendered entire armouries to drugged up and poorly trained ISIS fighters without firing even one bullet.
Syria has a strongman backed by Russia to offer a fight. Afghanistan has a weak paranoid puppet backed by reluctant USA. Its fall is just a matter of time.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Avik »

shyamd- your insights are always helpful. would welcome your comments on the latest on the northern borders. and please post more, if possible
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shyamd »

Avik wrote:shyamd- your insights are always helpful. would welcome your comments on the latest on the northern borders. and please post more, if possible
Assuming you mean LoC and LAC.

LoC
Peace is being preserved by both GOI and TSPA. TSPA is focused on 2 issues:
1) Shia pakistanis returning from warzones. ISI chief was in Tehran for negotiations on how to deal with this matter.
2) Taleban takeover post NATO

GOI is using the peace to do some prep. Lots of construction activity on bunkers to protect civilian populations. Other than that its the usual stuff... reconnaissance, patrols, winter prep et al.

LAC
GOI focused on the mantra I gave - SPEED, MOBILITY and integrated/acclimatised forces in numbers. GOI thinks road access and infra is critical to achieve this in a sustainable manner in the long term. That means construction activities again. IAF announced Nyoma ALG development plans yesterday.

Lots of training activity for Spec Forces and High Readiness guys. Dominating the borders via patrols/showing presence in places historically we have had a very thin presence.

Winter planning /stocking would have started for both sides. I suspect this would have factored into PLA decision to withdraw at Gogra

Overall - GOI needs to up the ante on vaccination and preventing a 3rd wave, so forces will play a critical role in terms of logistic etc. From a defensive perspective things feel more comfortable than where we were this time last year.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by jamwal »

Image
Image
https://twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/stat ... 2807858179

Hardware supplied by India already in Taliban hands. Now this helicopter even if not in a flying condition can be utilised by Pakis for spares.
I've always maintained that certain people glamourise the martial attributes of Afghans without much basis in reality. Americans during their Rambo 3 Mujahideen phase made it mainstream. In reality, they are just a bunch of peasants with guns without who can only do a bit of guerilla raids and murders at best. Even with years of western training and equipment, they are folding down in front of pakistani sponsored talibanis. Soviets even with a crumbling economy of their own and relatively low tech equipment depopulated whole districts.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ldev »

nandakumar wrote:
ramana wrote:China's 10k WTC troops are exercising with Russia.
Means unsure of LAC.
Can you please explain? Armies routinely engage with one another isn't it? What's different now?
Thanks
First time independent access given to the Russians to Chinese armored vehicles

Joint electronic warfare coordination

Exercise is with the Chinese Western Theater Command which is responsible for the LAC with India. So the Russian units will travel through the areas of the Northern Theater Command which borders Siberia, also through the area of the Central Theater Command and reach the exercise area of the Western Theater Command. Logic would have dictated a joint exercise nearest the Sino-Russian border with the Northern Theater Command. Looks like China wants to send a message to India that your best weapons supplier has no objections to conducting an exercise with PLAGF and PLAAF units which face India.
Kicking off the opening ceremony, 15 attack and transport helicopters flew past the site, followed by nine ground phalanxes from the PLA Western Theater Command and three phalanxes from the Russian Eastern Military District which received inspection.

A total of six warplane echelons featuring J-20 stealth fighter jets, J-11 heavy fighter jets, J-16 multirole fighter jets, JH-7A fighter bombers, H-6K bombers and Y-20 large transport planes of the PLA Air Force put the opening ceremony to a climax.
The Russians have also sent in SU-30SM fighters for the exercise. A link from globaltimes is given below.

J-20 fighter jets highlight China-Russia joint strategic drills opening
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ldev »

nandakumar wrote:
ramana wrote:China's 10k WTC troops are exercising with Russia.
Means unsure of LAC.
Can you please explain? Armies routinely engage with one another isn't it? What's different now?
Thanks
Also that the Central Military Commission has concluded that the Theater Command most likely to see hostilities in the short term is the Western Theater Command and is therefore most in need of honing it's skills via exercises with the Russians.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Prem Kumar »

Prem Kumar wrote:For all we know, the whole Chinese Ladakh incursion could have had a secondary agenda: to force a 2 front situation, due to which we'll be happy with a ceasefire with Pakistan, freeing up both Pakis and the Chinese to meddle with Afghanistan
Someone else, who thinks like me - viz, the Ladakh intrusion by the Chinese was a 3-way-tango between them, Pak & the U.S

https://twitter.com/rathorekaran17/stat ... 8974648322

He explains our Armed Forces Leadership thinking in one of the tweets in the above thread.
I was in a clubhouse discussion the other day. A senior Retd army general remarked that we should not tickle the pakis on LOC lest they start tickling us in J&K. It is symptomatic of the psyche of numerous decision making senior hierarchy. Maintain status quo somehow
The fish rots from the head. Small wonder then that when the U.S brokered a ceasefire deal with the Pakis, we nodded our heads vigorously. U.S gets to make a clean exit. China & Pak get their strategic depth.

What did we get??
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