India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

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Roop
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Roop »

Anujan wrote:For all their reputation of a 50 year and 100 year view, they are actually quite stupid, driven by factionalism. They show the same level of strategic planning as Pakis ...
Yes, thank you for saying it. This! This is what I have thought the PLA / CCP for a long time. The problem is, until recently (say, around Galwan time) it was not possible to say this on Indian forums (including this one) without being attacked for being "ignorant" or "complacent". Even after the clear psychological defeat for PLA and moral victory for India at Doklam, you still couldn't really bash PLA without some pushback from Indians wanting to be so uber-sophisticated, giving China all the H&D it demanded.

The only place I would differ with your assessment (and even that is a pretty minor difference) is that I would call them "foolish" (i.e. lacking wisdom or judgement) rather than "stupid' (i.e. lacking intelligence).

It is IMO entirely possible, maybe even likely, that they will start a war in the next month or so purely from this foolishness, i.e. their H&D has been humiliated, they have no way to "save face" other than war. Many wars in history have been started purely by blundering and misjudgement.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Agasthi »

I have a slightly different theory. Since the Uri payback in 2016 (and multiple paybacks since then on the LoC - the LoC was hot until the ceasefire and there were reports that parts of the LoC has changed), Doklam in 2017, Balakot in early 2019, J&k becoming an integral part of the union of India by law, rumors about indian plans on PoK (2020 -2021 time period) and impending American pullout from Afghanistan (Pakis would have supplied with accurate details of the negotiations to the chinis), deterrence between Pakis and us were breaking down. And, the Americans & Gulfies did not try to shore up massive support for Pakis as they would have done a decade ago.

The pawn was no longer sure about defending itself if it were to be invaded (it have thought surgical strikes and balakot are trial runs) when the amrikis leave. The pakis despite their bravado shut down their airspace after balakot for a long time, we didn't. Pakis would have panicked and sounded their alarms to China. To protect the Chini investment in Pakistan (nukes, missiles, CPEC, vassalage and securing afghanistan for china), the cat probably had to show up from the shadows and bare its fangs to deter us.

They would have calculated or been led to calculate that 2020 - 2022 would be a crucial year for the pakistan's very existence. I believe that's why they turned up on the borders in 2020 to deter us and with Covid they thought lets push the borders as well and then show Emperor Xi and get promotions. But when humans at the ground level start interacting all your best paid plans goes kaput.

Galwan happened, we took a beating but kung-fu became a watery chowmein. Chinis have caught the tigers tail and the tiger has possibly put off plans to throttle the swine's throat for another day. When our govt. is openly saying "wish we knew" is in my opinion a disinfo campaign to appear coy, no govt. especially a general would like to show that they are 'clueless'. To me it sounds like they are laying a bait. just my thoughts on this.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by SriKumar »

I did not see the exact quotes from the EAM or the general but if they are publicly professing ignorance, it is likely they know what's going on. If you dont actually know what's going on, the last thing you'll do is to say it aloud in public. high profile jobs like that of an EAM and an army general by nature require them to be very careful with words- their words go far, and are listened to. I am with ramana's conjecture that they are warning civilians to prepare for possible uncertainty. (GOI has plenty of experience at issuing bland statements about 'importance of continuing dialog', or 'situation stable', or 'near-term challenges with optimistic prognosis in the long-term' etc. Terminological exactitude is the forte of babudom. They decided to not exercise it this time.)
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by SSridhar »

csharma wrote:The only reason is that China wants to pressurize India because of India’s increasing closeness to US.
I am re-posting from Jul 8, 2020
there is never a single objective with the Chinese. They roll in multiple ones carefully into their move and try to achieve a few, like two steps forward, one step back. Of course, the priorities of different objectives are different and that is opaque to us. But, we should consider all of the following:
1. To ‘Teach India a lesson’ as in 1962 [or in Vietnam] for its omissions & commissions so far
2. To put India ‘in its place’, a feeling that has been growing in China especially after c. 2008
3. Grab as much real-estate as possible during this Wuhan Corona virus time
4. Provide more buffer to the G219 Highway
5. Settle the border dispute by ‘force/deception’ to achieve its larger timeline goals [ c. 2035 & 2050 ]
6. Protect Gilgit-Baltistan – the Critical chokepoint for CPEC
7. To influence India’s strategic / tactical decisions (Quad, WHO)
8. Deflect attention from within to outside, especially India
9. Raise national fervor amidst Corona, Trade War, 5G, Huawei/ZTE, Hong Kong, Economy
10. Show to the rest of the world, especially the US & its allies, who the hegemon is
11. One or multiple (more likely) of the above objectives
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by SSridhar »

Anujan wrote:For all their reputation of a 50 year and 100 year view, they are actually quite stupid, driven by factionalism. They show the same level of strategic planning as Pakis
Anujan ji, completely agree with you on that point.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramana »

SSridhar wrote:
Anujan wrote:For all their reputation of a 50 year and 100 year view, they are actually quite stupid, driven by factionalism. They show the same level of strategic planning as Pakis
Anujan ji, completely agree with you on that point.
Anujan and SS, I agree on everything but they're being stupid.
My take is to underestimate everything except their brain.

Chinese have had a long journey since the century of humiliation beginning with the Opium Wars.

They got rid of the European mandates, got rid of the monarchy, fought the Imperial Japanese, created the People's Republic, fought the Korean war, exploded nukes to become NPT members, got the UNSC security council with veto seat. And refashioned their economy from the twin failures of the Great Famine and the Great leap Forward. And accepted the industrialization pace to become the #2 economy.

I do admit the Galwan encounter has a complex explanation.
The tactical aspect is the sycophant Commander wanted to present XJP a birthday gift and launched the operation on 15 June.
The more complex aspect is why did XJP authorize it?
What were the aims?

Pakis had a country handed to them in a platter by the British to spite the Hindus.
To put these two on the same level is incorrect.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by AshishA »

I feel it has got to do with the internal struggle that's going on inside ccp. Maybe Xi wanted to a pull a Mao? Humiliate India to strengthen base inside the party? And to differeniate himself from Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, Deng Xiaoping? All of them haven't achieved a military victory against India. And make his status in the party on the same level as Mao's? He is gunning for a unprecedented third term in 2022. He may have thought this might be a easy way to smoothen his ride and make others fall in line.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote: Chinese have had a long journey since the century of humiliation beginning with the Opium Wars.

They got rid of the European mandates, got rid of the monarchy, fought the Imperial Japanese, created the People's Republic, fought the Korean war, exploded nukes to become NPT members, got the UNSC security council with veto seat. And refashioned their economy from the twin failures of the Great Famine and the Great leap Forward. And accepted the industrialization pace to become the #2 economy.
ramana, of the above you have cited, I agree on the bolded part because they reversed their obsession with merely clinging to a rotten 'ideology' to take their country phenomenally forward. Let me clarify. I do not use the word 'stupid' lightly. It has a particular context, in terms of their tactical or strategic approach, except for the one exception above. I do realize that the Chinese are one of the cleverest people on Planet Earth, they have an appetite for knowledge, hard working, have kept their doors open for new ideas to come in etc. including taking the extreme position that knowledge could be acquired through stealing.

But, I have a different take on the rest of the issues that you have cited. I do not credit the Chinese for the outcome of any of these. There were many reasons for the Mandates to disappear. The Chinese did fight the Imperial Japanese, but the effect was minimal. It is a fact that the Japanese defeated the vast Chinese Imperial Army in the Korean Peninsula and in the Yalu naval battle (which is regarded as one of the finest) and then immediately in Weihaiwei, posing a pincer attack on Beijing from Liaoning and Shandong hurriedly leading the Chinese to make peace with the Japanese leading to the Shimonoseki Peace Treaty which freed Korea from Chinese vassalage, gave Formosa and Liaodong, Dalian in perpetuity to Japan and made Japan as its MFN. Thus, Japan achieved its 2000 year ambition of having Korea as its buffer from the giant neighbour. The Ryukyu Kingdom came under the Japanese control in the 17th century itself without the Chinese Emperor being aware of it for the next 200 years. Similarly, the claim by the Chinese that they fought successfully the 'Fascist forces' in WW-II is CCP's spun-story. They did fight, even Mao's Red Army and the Chinese Army under Chiang Kai-shek fought together against the Japanese with some American help. But, to what use? The Japanese left *only* on their own volition after Hiroshima/Nagasaki. The Korean War of the 50s was a disaster for China with a million lives lost, which of course no totalitarian regime cares about. The Chinese intervened in Korea under Soviet prong, to show consolidation with international Marxist-Leninist ideology and to enhance CCP's position. The possession of the nukes happened fortuitously because of close collaboration with the USSR. I do concede that they have worked on further designs and fusion etc. There has never been a doubt about their ability. An authoritarian China, which was at the nadir anyway, had nothing to lose in terms of more sanctions by exploding the bomb in c. 1964. Losing millions of lives was also not a problem for Mao anyway. After Galwan they have made India a permanent enemy, thus undoing the previous three decades of efforts. China has only made itself friendless in the neighbourhood and beyond. May be, that's their ploy. The 'one and only Middle Kingdom' cannot treat anyone else as equal and has to put everyone else in 'their places' which are below that of China's. If this is what they consider as a brilliant strategy, well, good luck.

Even tactically, they shoot themselves in their foot. For example, in opposing India's involvement in drilling in Vietnamese EEZ while citing 'economic reasons' for CPEC through GB. For opposing terrorism in Xinjiang but supporting Hafeez Saeed & Masood Azhar. For their grandfathering of Pakistani nuclear plants. For trying to create an impression that several members of the UNSC opposed withdrawal of Art 370 & 35A while we know that China was the lone opponent. Similarly, in its position on our admission into the NSG. For their 'spot and immediate punishments' for any perceived transgression. There are many other instances where its bluff has been called many a time. Even the term 'Wolf Warrior' that they relish is a reference to the Mongols who ruled them for 200 years. They could never tame the steppe warriors.

The only point where I admire Chinese strategy was in temporarily giving up its ideological hatred towards the USA in order to join hands with her to dismantle the USSR. The Chinese also set aside their 'civilizational hostility' with Japan to attract investments & technology to grow. Then, it turned against them both.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by AshishA »

Btw I came to notice that Galwan Valley incident happened on 15th June, 2020.
The Doklam incident started on 16th June, 2017.

Is it a coincidence that PLA guys chose 15th to make the first move? I feel chosing that date is deliberate and I feel Galwan incident was done to avenge loss of face at Doklam. All in all, Chinese were as stupid as the pakis.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Anoop »

Sridhar,

You referred to China making India a permanent enemy by its actions on the LAC. However, bilateral trade volume is at a record high and the imbalance is still as high (around $28 Billion) in the first half of the year.

https://www.indiatoday.in/business/stor ... 2021-07-14

Banned Chinese apps are reappearing in the Indian market under bogus names.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I58-j1lGjJQ

In contrast, our limited military budget, already stretched by high revenue expenditure, is further stretched by the forward deployment. Not just monetarily, but also in terms of human cost, this is heavy in terms of health issues, lack of leave, reduced peace time posting in addition to wear and tear on equipment - almost a mini-Op Parakram.

Keeping this no-shooting deployment in place for another couple of years will really drain our resources. My hope is that the GoI and IA publicly announce a change of strategy for our public - we will redeploy and be willing to trade space but will go kinetic if any further intrusion takes place, to reclaim lost land. And any gains will be permanent and non negotiable, outside the purview of existing agreements. That way, there is less pressure to substitute manpower for firepower. Use this time to accelerate the indigenous development and deployment of satellite based surveillance, UAVs (armed or not), PGMs, MBRLs and long range tube artillery in Ladakh also, like they have in the Arunachal sector.

On the international scene, India should join the US and any other grouping to persuade countries to cancel their BRI commitments - the African equivalent of the Arab Spring. If the Chinese take it to international arbitration, the details of the lopsided loans will become public. If the Chinese use military force, these countries should be defended.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Karan M »

Agasthi wrote:I have a slightly different theory. Since the Uri payback in 2016 (and multiple paybacks since then on the LoC - the LoC was hot until the ceasefire and there were reports that parts of the LoC has changed), Doklam in 2017, Balakot in early 2019, J&k becoming an integral part of the union of India by law, rumors about indian plans on PoK (2020 -2021 time period) and impending American pullout from Afghanistan (Pakis would have supplied with accurate details of the negotiations to the chinis), deterrence between Pakis and us were breaking down. And, the Americans & Gulfies did not try to shore up massive support for Pakis as they would have done a decade ago.

The pawn was no longer sure about defending itself if it were to be invaded (it have thought surgical strikes and balakot are trial runs) when the amrikis leave. The pakis despite their bravado shut down their airspace after balakot for a long time, we didn't. Pakis would have panicked and sounded their alarms to China. To protect the Chini investment in Pakistan (nukes, missiles, CPEC, vassalage and securing afghanistan for china), the cat probably had to show up from the shadows and bare its fangs to deter us.

They would have calculated or been led to calculate that 2020 - 2022 would be a crucial year for the pakistan's very existence. I believe that's why they turned up on the borders in 2020 to deter us and with Covid they thought lets push the borders as well and then show Emperor Xi and get promotions. But when humans at the ground level start interacting all your best paid plans goes kaput.

Galwan happened, we took a beating but kung-fu became a watery chowmein. Chinis have caught the tigers tail and the tiger has possibly put off plans to throttle the swine's throat for another day. When our govt. is openly saying "wish we knew" is in my opinion a disinfo campaign to appear coy, no govt. especially a general would like to show that they are 'clueless'. To me it sounds like they are laying a bait. just my thoughts on this.
Completely agree that the Chinese turned up to protect the swine. They had no other option. It is one of their multiple agenda's as SSridhar has pointed out they tend to run with.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 78818?s=20 ---> Reports: Chinese PLA has increased military activities/operational tempo in sectors north of Tawang.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nam »

Ukraine deployed UCAV to knock off artillery guns which killed a Ukrainian soldier. Imagine if we do this to PA on LC. No need to send in UAV, just invest in tech to pinpoint and use PGM. Cannon fodder is cheap, loosing artillery gun is not.

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status ... 6137966603 ----> Today Russia's forces killed 1 Ukrainian soldier and wounded one. Artillery shelled villages of Hranitne near Mariupol city & Krymske. Ukrainian forces used their Turkish made Bayraktar combat UAV to attack 3 gun artillery battery. Video showing 1 gun hit ---> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEY4qPO1ffU
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by hnair »

I wonder how much damage happened to the gun, unless those Russians who joyfully scrambled away after the explosion was not made of titanium :lol:

Not even shell shock ? What do the turks use for warhead? mentos and coke?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ldev »

China's push against India and Taiwan is to reclaim land's which it sees historically as part of China, the island of Taiwan itself and in the case of India, Ladakh and South Tibet (Arunachal Pradesh).

It's push in the South China sea via the creation of artificial islands and occupation of reefs is to create a buffer to protect the Chinese mainland from naval action by the US.

For India a political and military victory will be if in the event of conflict, instead of China occupying parts of territory which it claims belong to it, for India to instead occupy Chinese territory. And for once India should get over it's reticence about not going beyond India's "perception" of where the LAC/border is. The aim in the conflict should be to occupy as much net new territory as is possible in any sector, even if it an area over which India has no claim at all and preferably something well known i.e. like a town, or cutting off G-219 in Ladakh etc. That will be a setback which will turn the internal CCP infighting among various factions into a free for all.

With it's prodigious industrial capacity, production of military hardware, whether aircraft, ships or artillery pieces is relatively easy for China unlike India where losses of military hardware carry an expensive price tag. Any losses China suffers in hardware suffered will be made up within weeks. But the loss of land will be a permanent stinging blow.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Anoop »

hnair wrote:I wonder how much damage happened to the gun, unless those Russians who joyfully scrambled away after the explosion was not made of titanium :lol:
Yes, not even stumbling from injuries! No sympathetic explosion of ammo. And to disable a gun, the easiest way is to use an airburst to kill the crew; much greater area coverage and less accuracy required. It's like they fired a dud, but what was the explosion that showed on the screen?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ldev »

The views of Russian media on issues such as the India China boundary dispute are normally not given wide publicity. The article linked here is written by an Indian but has obviously passed muster with RT.com as something that fits in with how Russia views this situation. You may or may not agree with the views expressed but some statements are hilarious:

India-China border impasse: What would be a common-sense solution?

Equal=Equal
As usual, both sides’ statements were almost exactly symmetrical; both accused the other of making unreasonable demands. The same symmetry exists about both nations’ versions of the deadly Galwan Valley clash in June 2020, which resulted in casualties on both sides – the first in 45 years. India says it’s all China’s fault; China says it’s all India’s fault. Neither side’s account can be independently verified of course; you believe who you want to believe.
What happened after diplomatic relations were re-established in 1979 after being broken off during the 1962 war:
Bureaucrats like talking. Almost as soon as diplomatic relations were re-established, mandarins from both sides got down to business. They rightly started negotiations on the border issue – but like most negotiations undertaken without political will, they achieved little. It was almost as if the chin-wagging was carried just as a performative PR exercise, or indeed, an exercise in garrulous diplomatic gloating. Diplomats love their clichés: they established “Working Groups”, “Political Parameters”, “Guiding Principles”, “Confidence Building Measures”, “General Frameworks”, “Special Representatives”, “Working Mechanisms” – the lot. :rotfl:

Until the ongoing standoff that started in 2020, the rap sheet included:

8 rounds of senior-level talks between 1981 and 1987

14 Joint working group meetings between 1988 and 2002

17 rounds of talks between special representatives since 2003

Activity became a substitute for achievement. :rotfl: After all, in the civil service, to quote from the British television show ‘Yes Minister’, success is measured by activity, not results. :D

Since 2020, the list (just to resolve the current standoff and negotiate troop withdrawals, not the whole border dispute), is even more impressive. In the 15 months ending in July 2021, more chins were wagged between India and China than almost any time in recent history:

12 rounds of corps commander level talks

10 rounds of major general level talks

55 rounds of brigadier level talks

1450 calls over hotlines
Even during the current impasse, each side has its favored clichés. India’s preferred platitude is that China has “unilaterally violated the status quo” – its standard narrative for every standoff with China, including the 2013 and 2017 border crises. China, meanwhile, keeps harping on about how India is “misjudging the situation”, and its favorite chestnut, how it “violated the consensus”.

Previous talks had led to some rudimentary successes. Many assumed that the negotiations were headed along the right path, when the 13th round of corps commander level talks occurred earlier this month.

It was a bloodbath. The negotiations broke down completely; with both sides accusing the other of being disagreeable
. The same clichés were repeated, plus a tad extra, leading to the sharpest diplomatic exchange in months.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Karan M »

Chini admirer. His profile drips with admiration for Chinese "strength" in resisting the west. One more Indian unable to address his anger at western interference, hence resorting to hero worshipping India's biggest strategic threat.
If you want something said, ask India.
If you want something done, ask China.

/Occasional opinions in
@RT_com
,
@ChinaDaily
,
@CGTNOfficial
,
@Chinaorgcn
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by SSridhar »

Anoop wrote:Keeping this no-shooting deployment in place for another couple of years will really drain our resources. My hope is that the GoI and IA publicly announce a change of strategy for our public - we will redeploy and be willing to trade space but will go kinetic if any further intrusion takes place, to reclaim lost land. And any gains will be permanent and non negotiable, outside the purview of existing agreements.
Anoop, didn't we follow this policy until May 2020 (except for announcing openly the 'kinetic, non-negotiable' part you've mentioned)? Our muscular response is known to China since at least 1967. We even did that at the trijunction in 2017. China employed the ruse of military exercise to move in troops in January/February, 2020. Tactically, China wants a large chunk of Ladakh as well as Tawang. One never knows what new demands it would put forth based on some vague memories of vassalage/tributary status 500 years back. That also ties in with its strategic goal of "There cannot be two tigers in the same mountain". China recognizes India as its potential and only competitor strategically. The rising power of China not only wants to challenge the established power of the USA but also wants to smother the future challenger simultaneously. If we understand the ideas of tianzi, tianxia & zhongguo, then we know that China will not stop at anything. Its latest demands on Kazakhstan & Kyrgyzstan are examples.
On the international scene, India should join the US and any other grouping to persuade countries to cancel their BRI commitments - the African equivalent of the Arab Spring. If the Chinese take it to international arbitration, the details of the lopsided loans will become public. If the Chinese use military force, these countries should be defended.
We see two things happening here today. The BRI countries have begun to see how China has taken them for a ride in many instances. They are fighting back, especially when China introduced Wuhan Coronavirus is ravaging them equally. China has made many concessions to them, some openly, many otherwise for fear that there would be a deluge otherwise. There is no international arbitration clause in the opaque BRI deals made between China and unscrupulous BRI countries. Though XJP announced two years back Singapore for international arbitration of BRI disputes, that is more to mollify than with any real intention. China has bribed its way thro' all BRI countries and nobody wants murky things to come out. They also fear retaliation by China which is known for 'spot & immediate economic punishments'. The other thing is that there is some kind of alternative to BRI in the form of Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC), the Blue Dot Network and now G7's B3W initiative though we know that they have to go someway before taking on the well-established BRI. Anyway, this thread is not the place for that discussion.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ernest »

Karan M wrote: Completely agree that the Chinese turned up to protect the swine. They had no other option. It is one of their multiple agenda's as SSridhar has pointed out they tend to run with.
If China is pushing in Indian territory to protect its terrorist munna, then the least India can do is to push into China occupied Tibet to ease pressure off Taiwan. If China has to take its sight off Taiwan due to the "2-front threat", that is a decent win for India. Tit for tat simple
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by kit »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 265396.cms

I am not sure if we in BRF have fully realised the import of this new law


They seem to have effectively legalised their occupation and have no qualms about occupying others territory.

The country will "take effective measures to resolutely protect territorial sovereignty and land border security", the law says.

Chinese military and military police - the People's Liberation Army and the People's Armed Police Force - are responsible for guarding the border against any "invasion, encroachment, infiltration, provocation".

The law stipulates that China can close its border if a war or other armed conflict nearby threatens border security.


https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chi ... 021-10-24/

Going back to the Galwan clashes and Indian SF occupying the peaks inside chinese territory ., are they making sure this does not happen again ?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Karan M »

ernest wrote:
Karan M wrote: Completely agree that the Chinese turned up to protect the swine. They had no other option. It is one of their multiple agenda's as SSridhar has pointed out they tend to run with.
If China is pushing in Indian territory to protect its terrorist munna, then the least India can do is to push into China occupied Tibet to ease pressure off Taiwan. If China has to take its sight off Taiwan due to the "2-front threat", that is a decent win for India. Tit for tat simple
For that we have to transition into a, war economy, focus most of our resources on MIC development and give up on social justice and economic growth. No democratic Indian leader can easily undertake that choice. Having said that we need to spend more on defence now. Namo needs to find a way to make that occur. The relative peace dividend of the first seven years is gone. And PRC and Pak are now both active to ensure we don't push back too hard against Pak.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by SSridhar »

kit wrote:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 265396.cms

I am not sure if we in BRF have fully realised the import of this new law
This complements the Coast Guard & Maritime Security Law that they enacted earlier this year. China also has a long-standing law that stipulated death penalty for anyone who conceded Chinese territory.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ernest »

Karan M wrote: For that we have to transition into a, war economy, focus most of our resources on MIC development and give up on social justice and economic growth. No democratic Indian leader can easily undertake that choice. Having said that we need to spend more on defence now. Namo needs to find a way to make that occur. The relative peace dividend of the first seven years is gone. And PRC and Pak are now both active to ensure we don't push back too hard against Pak.
Does the same apply to PRC as well? Will they pay a huge price in terms of economic growth for pushing into Indian territory, and picking up quarrel all around? If they can manage to do this without hurting economy, we can do it at some level too. Maybe the current level of border activity can be maintained without serious strain on economy. This heightened activity will only push us towards an Atmanirbhar MIC as well, and force us to decouple from Chinese economy. Would this tie up enough of the PLA resources to keep them from going all out on Taiwan? If the economic costs are reasonable, then I would prefer to see their plans crash as well. Will set up an example that they cannot get away with bullying everyone.

That said, I can only guess the economic impact. Those who actually can work out the trade offs are the ones who are the best to decide. Let's hope our decision makers have the right understanding, and the will to make the best trade offs
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by pushkar.bhat »

kit wrote:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 265396.cms

I am not sure if we in BRF have fully realised the import of this new law


They seem to have effectively legalised their occupation and have no qualms about occupying others territory.

The country will "take effective measures to resolutely protect territorial sovereignty and land border security", the law says.

Chinese military and military police - the People's Liberation Army and the People's Armed Police Force - are responsible for guarding the border against any "invasion, encroachment, infiltration, provocation".

The law stipulates that China can close its border if a war or other armed conflict nearby threatens border security.


https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chi ... 021-10-24/

Going back to the Galwan clashes and Indian SF occupying the peaks inside chinese territory ., are they making sure this does not happen again ?
If someone want to occupy a piece of land then they will do it irrespective of your perception. India has said exactly this via its own communique. Chinese Laws which breach unilaterally previous joint agreements are not worth the paper on which they were printed.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Larry Walker »

If China wants to develop its existing border region - then what or who is stopping it ? They have already built highways and towns in land that they had captured earlier. I am not able to understand what is the motive or objective of this new law - other than starting rapid development on new lands that they will captur. It looks like an instrument given to PLA to start building infrastructure in land that they occupy after war and this way the CPC or Central Government in PRC is not directly involved in administration of these new lands. So to show the world the PLA will occupy the land while negotiations are on and at the same time build infrastructure to rapidly change the geography or demography of the occupied land.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Aditya_V »

China has never needed any law that for the Indo-Tibet Border, it has always been take as much as they can. This is just frustration- the first winter has been tough with high attrition, 2nd winter will be worse. Either they or their tallen and deepen friend will be told to do something to break the impasse. I suspect IM the dim is going to the loser here.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Cyrano »

The window for any Chinese action in Ladakh is nearly shut since November is almost upon us. India just fired off an Agni-V and slammed that door shut in China's face. SugarBabys are in for another long winter haul, they're just lovin'it :lol: :rotfl:
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by SSridhar »

The border law like its maritime laws and the 'death penalty law' are meaningless as far as anyone else is concerned, much less India. China employs threats & 'Three warfares' in the hope something would work. Besides, preparations have started already for the 20th Party Congress.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shyamd »

ldev wrote:The views of Russian media on issues such as the India China boundary dispute are normally not given wide publicity. The article linked here is written by an Indian but has obviously passed muster with RT.com as something that fits in with how Russia views this situation. You may or may not agree with the views expressed but some statements are hilarious:

India-China border impasse: What would be a common-sense solution?
Love it! It's a pretty good summary...
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Cyrano »

Really? A Chinese stooge pushing status quo to be made IB after decades of salami slicing, and forever accepting occupation of Tibet - what's there to love in that?

I'd argue that with their deceitful, condescending attitude, the Chinese are only pushing India to become expansionist in turn. I'm actually ok with the current stalemate to drag on for a few years. Next PM of India may not be half as accommodating as the current one. :twisted:
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ParGha »

ernest wrote:If China is pushing in Indian territory to protect its terrorist munna, then the least India can do is to push into China occupied Tibet to ease pressure off Taiwan. If China has to take its sight off Taiwan due to the "2-front threat", that is a decent win for India. Tit for tat simple
Republic of China (Taiwan) is not India's "munna". Taiwan is one of the largest "foreign" investors in People's Republic of China; a major link in the supply network that is fully enmeshed with PRC; and a backdoor for restricted technologies that is squirreled into PRC by unscrupulous businesses.

You want to play "tit for tat"? Then massively accelerate the development of Project 75 Alpha, and start churning out at least one SSBN every year for the next 15 years. Sign SSN and SSBN basing and replenishment treaties with other members of the QUAD, Vietnam and Russia. Stop pretending "Guardian of the Indian Ocean", start playing the "Goonda of the Indo-Pacific Arc". That is the only "second front" play available for India.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Rakesh »

ParGha wrote:You want to play "tit for tat"? Then massively accelerate the development of Project 75 Alpha, and start churning out at least one SSBN every year for the next 15 years. Sign SSN and SSBN basing and replenishment treaties with other members of the QUAD, Vietnam and Russia. Stop pretending "Guardian of the Indian Ocean", start playing the "Goonda of the Indo-Pacific Arc". That is the only "second front" play available for India.
Amen Sirjee! +108 to you. Well put. I love the terminology Goonda of the Indo-Pacific Arc. It is the only language the ChiComs understand.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by V_Raman »

Whatever is our sabre rattling - Agni ityadi - they are at the border and have not gone back. More time will only solidify the positions and we cannot do anything about it. That is the sad ground reality. We are still expecting action from them when they have already acted. Ball is in our court now...
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by csharma »

RT.com tends to be anti India. Don’t know why.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Bart S »

csharma wrote:RT.com tends to be anti India. Don’t know why.
Many aspects of Russia are rabidly anti-India and against Indian interests, for e.g. that Kabulov guy who is their point-man for Af-Pak and more Paki than most Pakis. They also seem hell-bent on supporting the Paki takeover of Afghanistan.

There is no need for this cognitive dissonance anymore, it's time to accept the reality that Russia in it's current form is fundamentally in an anti-India bloc (though might be for reasons other than anything to do with India specifically) while it keeps up pretensions of friendship and panders to our Soviet-era hangover as we are the only suckers willing to keep their mil-ind complex alive (often at the cost of our own). The best that we can hope for from them in terms of genuine sentiment (ignoring over the top 'eternal friendship' type nonsense statements) is indifference.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Rakesh »

India needs hi-tech system for armed forces to combat challenges at borders: General Bipin Rawat
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 344834.cms
28 Oct 2021
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Aarvee »

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/c ... 2021-10-27

China has restricted the use of its navigation system, known as BeiDou at LAC as per reports!
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Paul »

If 17th mountain corps is already raised, does that mean that we have 2-3 additional divisions under Eastern command. That would be heartening news certainly.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by csharma »

Multiple reports saying massive PLA build up throughout LAC. They might attempt something in the eastern sector.

Chinese build-up in RALP area matter of concern: officers
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 254191.ece
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