India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

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nachiket
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nachiket »

Karan M wrote: The GOI has to open up purse strings and spend more on defense on a sustained basis now. There is no other go.
Whatever the government does now in terms of defense spending will have little effect on the immediate crisis beyond shoring up ammo stocks and ensuring supplies to the forward deployed troops in winter. The deeper problems like lack of aircraft, helos, artillery etc. is not going to get fixed overnight. We are paying today for mismanagement, failures and apathy of years past.

The other thing is that we have perhaps not learned the right lessons from Kargil. We did improve our capability to wage war in mountainous, high altitude regions based on experiences then, but do not seem to have imbibed the "prevention is better than cure" lesson. It is always going to be difficult to take back territory already lost no matter how much you prepare. Starting a war is always going to be an extremely unlikely decision unless the loss is as bad as Kargil and even then there were limits imposed on what the army and IAF could do. We don't seem to have improved in that enough compared to 1999 when the pakis surprised us by occupying territory under our noses. That in essence is what happened in some regions of the LAC too. Would have been great if we figured out a solution for that in the last 20 years.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shyamd »

Cyrano wrote:Great job by Para SF! However this type of infiltration will only increase.

When action starts on the Afg-Tajik border, India should do a 2xbalakot to give PA a jhaapad from both sides.
Check the Afghanistan thread
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by williams »

Pratyush wrote:I don't think that PRC will attack just yet.

The logistics are not in place for a bare knuckle fight against India.

Secondly, the moment PRC attacks India. Any and all pretence of quad being a non military setup goes out of the window.

Provided Biden is a not a PRC agent. The Americans will be placing USAF in Indian bases for a fight against the PRC. The US MIC needs that conflict.
They will not start a war. They will salami slice and stall. In fact if we let this practice go lightly, they might do this as part of their annual exercise every year when they bring in their conscripts. It is kind of a variation of Nehru's forward policy, but they build roads, infrastructure and backing troops to hold their position. Honestly, we have allowed this to fester for too long. Only way forward is counter salami slice their flanks and go for the kill when the the gloves are off. Slowly it is dawning on me, that we were a bit too quick to agree for withdrawing from the Kailash range. We were stupid to agree to talk about that sector first.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by anupmisra »

williams wrote:They will not start a war. They will salami slice and stall. In fact, if India lets this practice go lightly, they might do this as part of their annual exercise every year when they bring in their conscripts.
To paraphrase what you allude to above (which by the way I agree with), PLA has all the time in the world to take over Ladakh and Arunachal. They have been doing this since 19450. They are in no rush. Out of date Indian foreign policy of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam is the biggest hurdle in India salami-slicing chini-occupied territories.

Never negotiate with the chinis from the position of weakness.

In the 21st century realpolitik, you either lead, follow or get out of the way.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Maria »

shyamd wrote:10 Para SF killed all 5 terrorists involved in ambush of troops on LoC last night. Desert Rats operating on LoC........
Aren't they the Desert Scorpions?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Karan M »

nachiket wrote:
Karan M wrote: The GOI has to open up purse strings and spend more on defense on a sustained basis now. There is no other go.
Whatever the government does now in terms of defense spending will have little effect on the immediate crisis beyond shoring up ammo stocks and ensuring supplies to the forward deployed troops in winter. The deeper problems like lack of aircraft, helos, artillery etc. is not going to get fixed overnight. We are paying today for mismanagement, failures and apathy of years past.

The other thing is that we have perhaps not learned the right lessons from Kargil. We did improve our capability to wage war in mountainous, high altitude regions based on experiences then, but do not seem to have imbibed the "prevention is better than cure" lesson. It is always going to be difficult to take back territory already lost no matter how much you prepare. Starting a war is always going to be an extremely unlikely decision unless the loss is as bad as Kargil and even then there were limits imposed on what the army and IAF could do. We don't seem to have improved in that enough compared to 1999 when the pakis surprised us by occupying territory under our noses. That in essence is what happened in some regions of the LAC too. Would have been great if we figured out a solution for that in the last 20 years.
We actually have a lot of desi gear and even imported gear which has cleared trials but is awaiting orders because of low Capex. Opening up the funding spigot can make a significant difference to the order and induction pipeline in both the short, and medium terms beyond the longer term alone.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Karan M »

williams wrote:
Pratyush wrote:I don't think that PRC will attack just yet.

The logistics are not in place for a bare knuckle fight against India.

Secondly, the moment PRC attacks India. Any and all pretence of quad being a non military setup goes out of the window.

Provided Biden is a not a PRC agent. The Americans will be placing USAF in Indian bases for a fight against the PRC. The US MIC needs that conflict.
They will not start a war. They will salami slice and stall. In fact if we let this practice go lightly, they might do this as part of their annual exercise every year when they bring in their conscripts. It is kind of a variation of Nehru's forward policy, but they build roads, infrastructure and backing troops to hold their position. Honestly, we have allowed this to fester for too long. Only way forward is counter salami slice their flanks and go for the kill when the the gloves are off. Slowly it is dawning on me, that we were a bit too quick to agree for withdrawing from the Kailash range. We were stupid to agree to talk about that sector first.
We didn't have an option. Deploying under those conditions in perpetuity would have created another Siachen. An opex hole that gradually diverts more and more from Capex. The IA/Govt were sharp and ensured this did not repeat by a time bound deployment which gained us an equivalent advantage and withdrew.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nachiket »

Karan M wrote: We actually have a lot of desi gear and even imported gear which has cleared trials but is awaiting orders because of low Capex. Opening up the funding spigot can make a significant difference to the order and induction pipeline in both the short, and medium terms beyond the longer term alone.
I was talking about the big ticket items like fighter aircraft, refuelers, LCH, ATAGS, NAMICA, WhAP, MGS etc. We have shortfalls everywhere. It takes time to set up or expand production for those. Even if the govt. orders them now they will not impact the current situation. There is no immediate solution for IAF's lack of numbers which you were talking about earlier. The only item they may be able to get quickly might be more K9 Vajras. But even there we have allowed the production line to shut down and are now thinking of more trickle orders in two digits.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Cain Marko »

nachiket wrote:
Karan M wrote: We actually have a lot of desi gear and even imported gear which has cleared trials but is awaiting orders because of low Capex. Opening up the funding spigot can make a significant difference to the order and induction pipeline in both the short, and medium terms beyond the longer term alone.
I was talking about the big ticket items like fighter aircraft, refuelers, LCH, ATAGS, NAMICA, WhAP, MGS etc. We have shortfalls everywhere. It takes time to set up or expand production for those. Even if the govt. orders them now they will not impact the current situation. There is no immediate solution for IAF's lack of numbers which you were talking about earlier. The only item they may be able to get quickly might be more K9 Vajras. But even there we have allowed the production line to shut down and are now thinking of more trickle orders in two digits.
The s400s will help. And are desperately needed.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Karan M »

nachiket wrote:
Karan M wrote: We actually have a lot of desi gear and even imported gear which has cleared trials but is awaiting orders because of low Capex. Opening up the funding spigot can make a significant difference to the order and induction pipeline in both the short, and medium terms beyond the longer term alone.
I was talking about the big ticket items like fighter aircraft, refuelers, LCH, ATAGS, NAMICA, WhAP, MGS etc. We have shortfalls everywhere. It takes time to set up or expand production for those. Even if the govt. orders them now they will not impact the current situation. There is no immediate solution for IAF's lack of numbers which you were talking about earlier. The only item they may be able to get quickly might be more K9 Vajras. But even there we have allowed the production line to shut down and are now thinking of more trickle orders in two digits.
Even big ticket items are available if we had significant funding.

In some cases, they can be transferred from existing stocks. For instance if the situation was truly dire and we made a case for it, a weapons provider might transfer airframes from in service inventory with the proviso they'd be upgraded to Indian standards later. We've proven with the Rafale we can rapidly induct and operationalize.

At the end of the day it's all about willingness to spend. You turn up with a big bag of cash and the other side will try and meet you halfway.

Frankly, we've run through the peace dividend with the PRC and Pak but GOI seems to have convinced itself that it's doing OK with its limited inductions and can continue as is. It's a mindset I am forced to disagree with as the situation has changed for the worse in the past two years, and the steady, modernisation method is too slow. OROP broke the bank and even most emergency purchases till 2019-20, came from within the already stretched regular budget.

The problem with the current approach is that for one, our opponents are not deterred (as seen from the constant low level attacks in Kashmir and the constant salami slicing), and second, we are actually overusing our existing stock to keep up a high operational tempo.

The constant desire to balance the books the Fin Min advisors seem to suffer from is going to be counterproductive in the medium to long term when a lot of our eqpt is going to need replacement even faster than it otherwise would, because already older, hard to sustain airframes like the Jaguars were heavily flogged.

We have no plan for that either. If MRFA is ordered giving into the IAFs arm twisting (and they have operational reasons to ask for it, see the above), we won't have money for the MWF.

Our R&D budgeting has also been so-so. While there have been increases, the projected spend has never been met. For a mere few billion$ a year the benefits in accelerated devpt would have been huge.

Aatmanirbharat campaign is a great idea but with intermittent orders its not ramping up as fast as it should.

This Govt has made huge strides in making the AF battle worthy by focusing on serviceability and WWR, the pace of large scale new inductions trickled to a stop between 2014-16. Thereafter it picked up again but in fits and spurts when it came to big ticket platforms losing us time.

IAF is now at 30 sq, IA towed arty is in a sad state, we lack CIWS, heavy shelters in substantial numbers for most of our key AFB, we need to accelerate inductions of force multipliers like AWACS, EW assets, PGMs and IFR, and for that we need more funding. Not a single new Phalcon is in service. Not a single new IFR asset. Not even the 33 extra Flankers or MiG-29s have been ordered. The Su30 upgrade remains unsigned. We've made huge strides in the Navy but gaps remain.

Its unfair to the current GOI as they inherited this total mess from the UPA but it is what it is.

When you run short of technology you turn to manpower. Actually, we are moving all our reserves and force surplus vs Pak to face off against China. Now we are in this state, where we are stuck in opex heavy deployment, because we haven't focused enough on the ISR or speartip either to preempt or deter our adversaries.

Fact is we need to spend more. At the end of the day the soldiers and the political executive plus the nation, pay the price for a conflict, any loss of territory plus huge damage to civil and military infra.

The cost of fixing that will dwarf any military spend today.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by pushkar.bhat »

I guess we will have to wait for the National Monetisation pipeline initiative to start running its course for many of these capital purchases to fructify. I believe this will take at least a couple of years. Post that I expect that the realisation of these assets will be faster then the trickle that we see right now.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nam »

Chinis have formed an agreement with Bhutan to "resolve boundary issue". This must be to show to the world that they are quite "benevolent" on the boundary issue and it is not it's fault.

Chinis are up to something on LAC. The probability of conflict on LAC is much higher than Taiwan. A war over Taiwan would disrupt Chini economy, but on LAC there is no such issue. Nothing is getting disrupted on a fight in those remote places.

Not to mention, a two front fight might be a terror attack away.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by YashG »

pushkar.bhat wrote:I guess we will have to wait for the National Monetisation pipeline initiative to start running its course for many of these capital purchases to fructify. I believe this will take at least a couple of years. Post that I expect that the realisation of these assets will be faster then the trickle that we see right now.
It's a bridge too far. Even Aatmanirbharta hasnt even taken off. Bangalore metro is importing bogies worth 1000 cr from china when BEL also wanted to supply. Ask me what could have got chinese the contract? Must have been grease. Even karnataka govt cudnt follow. The plant to produce those 1000cr bogies is just 350cr.

We do the same in defence procurement.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Vicky »

YashG wrote:
pushkar.bhat wrote:I guess we will have to wait for the National Monetisation pipeline initiative to start running its course for many of these capital purchases to fructify. I believe this will take at least a couple of years. Post that I expect that the realisation of these assets will be faster then the trickle that we see right now.
It's a bridge too far. Even Aatmanirbharta hasnt even taken off. Bangalore metro is importing bogies worth 1000 cr from china when BEL also wanted to supply. Ask me what could have got chinese the contract? Must have been grease. Even karnataka govt cudnt follow. The plant to produce those 1000cr bogies is just 350cr.

We do the same in defence procurement.
As far as this topic of rolling stock is concerned this isn't entirely accurate. The Chinese were allowed to bid in certain contracts after 2019 because those projects are funded by World Bank and/or Asian Development Bank. These financiers don't allow targeted restrictions. If we want to bar them from contracts we should not be using their financing. The Chinese really underbid and no bureaucrat will cancel an L1 bid lest be accused of corruption. If the Chinese qualify bid conditions, they generally win because they underbid. Atleast GoI wised up and imposed some conditions barring the Chinese in 2020 otherwise idiot Babu's weren't even implementing the 2016 Make in India order in letter or spirit.

Currently the following Indian made metro rolling stock manufacturers have orders for Indian metros

1. BEML Bengaluru plant
2. Alstom India - Sri city, AP factory/Bombardier India- Sanand factory
3. Titagarh wagons and their Italian acquisition

The earlier CRRC orders for Navi Mumbai metro, BLR metro are prior to these restrictions being put up.

BEML still uses some Japanese components from Mitsubishi.

BEML can go full atmanirbhar by replacing Mitsubishi components with BHEL or Medha Servo components but they aren't doing it yet. Alstom is partial indegenisation but their design team is now in Bengaluru.

BEML has their largest order for Mumbai Metro Line 2, 3 and 6.
Alstom for Mumbai Line 3, Kanpur, Nagpur

Old winners like Hyundai for Hyderabad & Delhi metro, Mitsubishi for Delhi metro are no longer competing.

Some more forced Atmanirbharta is still required in this area but gradual progress is happening. Hope BEML's new future owners will continue this drive. BEML shouldn't be sold to a foreign owner.
Last edited by Vicky on 15 Oct 2021 01:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Larry Walker »

Currently the situation is in India's favor. PRC has an upper hand in terms of assembling a large force of weapons and material and logistics - and this type of force will have an impact in manoeuvre kind of warfare. Right now this kind of warfare it is only possible in certain areas of Ladakh and UK and there the IA has matched PLA deployment. In rest of the areas the PLA has to actually fight mountain warfare and here defender has advantage. Also targeting well-built and hidden and well camouflaged bunkers in mountains is not that easy. In Kargil - PAF was not there to challenge IAF and IAF could achieve that. But in India PRC conflict India will still be able to sanitize the battlespace against fighters and standoff weapons when in defensive mode. So only option for PRC is a very short sharp assault to generate some shock-and-awe kind of images and then let weather come in to stop the war - show the doctored videos to global audience and declare victory. But the only problem in this scenario is India can also give them some shock-and-awe at some pre-selected targets and then it just becomes equal-equal.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/144 ... 01217?s=20 ---> Why are these WTC commanders being changed ever so often by the PLA? That is because, after a WTC commander understands the ground reality, he starts thinking 'may be beyond a point peace & tranquility is not such a bad idea'. But the CMC is not at that point yet.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by AdityaM »

Another video of injured Indian soldiers being walked by the Chinese.

https://twitter.com/evazhengll/status/1 ... 34700?s=21


These are poor optics for us.
Sure the Chinese suffered too, in large part due to a fortuitous landslide, but would we ever get to know the true horror of that day. Till date no Indian video of Chinese captives from that event has come out. And whatever little media does come out, is met by more damning videos from Chinese.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nam »

What about the video of PLA retreating early this year then?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nachiket »

Karan M wrote: Even big ticket items are available if we had significant funding.

In some cases, they can be transferred from existing stocks. For instance if the situation was truly dire and we made a case for it, a weapons provider might transfer airframes from in service inventory with the proviso they'd be upgraded to Indian standards later. We've proven with the Rafale we can rapidly induct and operationalize.
....
Wonderful post Karan. I agree. My only consternation is that when things on the equipment front are this bad it is essential to not get surprised by the enemy like at Kargil because we are in no position to launch any sort of offensive action to take back lost territory. I am not saying every inch of territory needs to be manned and defended. That is never a good defensive tactic. But at least land whose occupation can give the enemy a tactical or strategic advantage needs to be. For example at Pangong Tso we atleast had the option of occupying the Kailash range to force a Chinese withdrawal. But we don't seem to have any such counter options at Depsang, Gogra etc. otherwise I am guessing we would have used them by now. And unfortunately the area they have occupied seems to give them some advantage in terms of observation and future interdiction of our supply routes. This has been a massive mistake to allow them to come inside in force, occupy those areas and even build supporting infrastructure. The government has been put in a very precarious position.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nachiket »

nam wrote:What about the video of PLA retreating early this year then?
These videos they are releasing seem to be from the clashes last year. At least the previous one was.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nam »

Yes they are. It is given we have similar videos. But then our "whiter than white" attitude to not hurt our enemies feelings means, I have not much hope it will be released.

Regarding the Chini videos, it is part of the game. We need to learn to provide counter narratives.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by YashG »

Vicky wrote: 2. Alstom India - Sri city, AP factory/Bombardier India- Sanand factory
3. Titagarh wagons and their Italian acquisition
Actually these are two silver linings for atmanirbharta:
> Alstom/Bombardier are also exporting to Australia, Brazil and several other countries.
> The alumnium rolling stock that Titagarh is building with Firema's tech is a very state of art wagon. This is where India has a advantage over China. China's last acquisition for vossloh in train segment faced bad political weathers. In future acquisitions will be difficult for CRRC but India isnt a pariah in that sense
Additionally
> CBTC has been indigenised by DMRC, yet to percolate everyhwre but it was an important import till now.
>Since this is OT for border discussion. So last from me.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by YashG »

nachiket wrote:
Karan M wrote: Even big ticket items are available if we had significant funding.

In some cases, they can be transferred from existing stocks. For instance if the situation was truly dire and we made a case for it, a weapons provider might transfer airframes from in service inventory with the proviso they'd be upgraded to Indian standards later. We've proven with the Rafale we can rapidly induct and operationalize.
....
Wonderful post Karan. I agree. My only consternation is that when things on the equipment front are this bad it is essential to not get surprised by the enemy like at Kargil because we are in no position to launch any sort of offensive action to take back lost territory.
I would rather read that post like this. Things are manageable/on the edge right now but they will become bad, if we dont pull back from the edge with faster inductions/investments. Very soon we will fall off the cliff, if we dont.

A few years (mid of last decade) ago IAF was more than enough for PLAAF, we had scores of MKIs/Cheen had nothing to match & their numbers were also much lesser for 4th gen fighters. Now PLAAF has exapanded much beyond; now we take solace in the tibetan plateau/flying out of the himalayas to suprise kind of advantages helping our cause. In few years as PLAAF expands, this solace will also become insufficient. So time is right now to invest, fasttrack & induct.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nachiket »

YashG wrote: I would rather read that post like this. Things are manageable/on the edge right now but they will become bad, if we dont pull back from the edge with faster inductions/investments. Very soon we will fall off the cliff, if we dont.

A few years (mid of last decade) ago IAF was more than enough for PLAAF, we had scores of MKIs/Cheen had nothing to match & their numbers were also much lesser for 4th gen fighters. Now PLAAF has exapanded much beyond; now we take solace in the tibetan plateau/flying out of the himalayas to suprise kind of advantages helping our cause. In few years as PLAAF expands, this solace will also become insufficient. So time is right now to invest, fasttrack & induct.
Our incompetence at planning/executing for the future has not gotten better in 20 years so I don't expect us to suddenly change now overnight. And this is only partly a government or finance problem. The armed forces themselves have made mistakes or erected stumbling blocks in their own modernization in many cases. And this intransigence still continues along with the huge funding issues which Karan has outlined above. Forget the Chinese who seem to have infinitely deep pockets, even the pakis do far better at actually utilizing the rather limited resources they have.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Nihat »

One more JCO Kia at the LoC today. This makes it 2 officers and 5 jawans who attained veergati in the past 3 days.

I pray to god that we are going to respond and respond with wrath and fury that the LoC has not seen before. Even the Chinese across should be able to hear the roar of arty guns.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Larry Walker »

Prem Kumar wrote:
Larry Walker wrote:This jingo is extremely proud of our forefathers from C-Company in Rezang-La who made their supreme sacrifice for the motherland. We lost that battle - but yet each one of us is indebted to those brave men on how they smashed Chinki heads till their last breath.
These pics have been released by Chicoms to dishonor our Galwan braves - there should be some response from GoI.
Sorry if I am behind the curve. What images were released?
The pics posted on Chinki forums earlier were related to release of injured Bravehearts post Galwan clash last year as part of prisioner exchange - same context as the twitter video posted above. I dont want to post those nasty pics again - but GoI also needs to come out with our narrative and similar visual documents.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by YashG »

nachiket wrote: Forget the Chinese who seem to have infinitely deep pockets, even the pakis do far better at actually utilizing the rather limited resources they have.
'Completely agree on the 20 year record wont change overnight' but we are also not as worse, just not pulling equal to our weight.

Additionally what I dont agree on the deep pockets of chinese. Chinese money is a myth
Something very pathbreaking is happening in China right now - China is running out of money. Let me explain in 5 points & one story.

Story here: https://palladiummag.com/2021/10/11/the ... ng-huning/ If you read through this premis you will know the china story is falling into pieces.

Now 5 points:
#1 Most of the Chinese growth comprises of property assets and even these assets are not productive.
Why China’s infrastructure investment may be doing more harm than good
https://review.sbs.ox.ac.uk/Why-Chinas- ... -good.html

#2 Chinese industrialisation is not creating virtuous cycle of innovation. So dependent are chinese on external ToT & then copying it - that while it takes them to current standard but they are just stay there. Their industry doesnt takes the next steps.
Examples:
1. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... sfer-fears - China cant export cars like India does! Why ? Carmakers gave chinese JVs obsolete tech. They could never take the next step in auto innovation.
2. China has the world's 70% of High Speed Railways - CRRC is the largest manufacturer; CRRC acquired the state of art from Alstom/Bombardier on high speed railway & gained an equal, even greater footing but Alstom/Bombardier have mover ahed on innovation. China hasnt taken the next steps
https://itif.org/publications/2021/04/2 ... speed-rail

#3 Chinese debt is increasing at 30% of GDP per year & is now huge. This wouldnt have been a problem if China was still growing at 8% but they are not - their official est is now below 6. Or the population was not aging so fast. Chinese companies are saddled with debts & since their best years maybe behind - they do not have easiest ways to repay debts - with stalling productivity gains, aging populations, failure to kickstart next steps in innovation cycles.
China’s booming EV industry faces overcapacity issues
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies ... s-and-will

#4 Chinese BRI projects are facing headstorms; China is pulling out because their banks can no longer bankroll intl projects - chins doesnt have the money. China’s Superpower Dreams Are Running Out of Money https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/06/ch ... -spending/

#5 Everything you see 11 doing - his overt radical control - is a sign that he wants to build new levers of social control. Earlier chinese people were happy as long as they saw real growth in living standards. Now when they will not - what wil you consolidate your rule around? Nationalism, Chinese Exceptionalism, Wealth Rebalancing, Envoronmentalism & So on.
Can you believe - china announced a 250+ million USD biodiversity fund! Why? Climate action is a good way to explain why growth can be compromised. Now that China cant grow anyways - China can use the climate action danda to control others like India too.

-
China is investing in military hardware not because but inspite of economic growth. Its their way of showing that all is well - we are strong. This spree will not last forever but long enough for us to invest/induct quickly.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nachiket »

YashG, none of that is going to change the fact that the PLAAF is inducting several squadrons worth of new 4th and 5th gen fighters every year, or that the PLAN inducts large surface combatants at an unheard of rate or that they are furiously building longer runways, expanding apron space and building more HAS at their airbases in Tibet and Xinjiang or that they continue to bring in large numbers of artillery, armor and other assets facing our forces in eastern Ladakh and AP etc. etc. Their predicted financial woes are an interesting discussion for the PRC economy thread but they do not affect the military situation in the near future at least.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nachiket »

YashG wrote:
nachiket wrote: Forget the Chinese who seem to have infinitely deep pockets, even the pakis do far better at actually utilizing the rather limited resources they have.
'Completely agree on the 20 year record wont change overnight' but we are also not as worse, just not pulling equal to our weight.
I made that comment because the pakis have achieved near parity with us in some areas where they have no business having it looking at our much larger defence budget. The have an equal number of refuelers and AWACS as us when they have a smaller fighter fleet and have to worry about only one front instead of two like us. Their major airbases all have much better infrastructure with multiple runways and lots of HAS. We are only now remedying the HAS situation and none of our airbases except for Gwalior seems to have 2 runways. They are now also buying 236 PLC-181 truck mounted guns while no orders for mounted guns for the IA have materialized despite local solutions available. Our Vajra orders are stuck at 100 again despite local assembly. They are buying 250 52 tonne VT-4 tanks as well. I don't need to remind you what the IA did to the Arjun. They made a very practical decision to order large numbers of JF-17's despite the aircraft's shortcomings keeping in mind their financial situation and the knowledge that they can get progressively better equipped versions in the future and upgrade the older ones. And whatever fun we may make of that aircraft when large numbers of JF-17's show up in an engagement like they did on Feb 27 2019, we will have to assign resources to deal with them, resources which will therefore not be available to counter their more dangerous jets. Meanwhile we had IAF officers deriding the Tejas as a three legged cheetah or Mig-21++ not too long ago and Parrikar ji (bless his soul) had to do a lot of hand wringing to even make them accept the Mk1A. Now we are again in a precarious situation with only 30 squadrons and no easy way out.

So yes they do utilize the limited resources they have far better than we do ours despite having a lot more.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Anoop »

Aditya Raj Kaul (@AdityaRajKaul) Tweeted:
Great news. 4G Jio Tower installed by India at Demchok in Eastern Ladakh on LAC with China. Digital India a work in progress. An excellent and fantastic example of synergy and cooperation between Indian Army and LAHDC civil administration. Shared by a dear friend. https://t.co/DDG3hQv3pg%20https://twitt ... 28290?s=20
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nam »

We have 2 type of adversary. One where money & resource is not a problem and another one a beggar with nothing to loose :roll:

We have to defend ourself from attacks from the beggar and incursion from the rich. At the same time grow our economy. Cannot go to a open war with the beggar or with the rich, as there is no clear objective. We don't want to invade the beggar and is difficult to defeat the rich.

The only way out is to punish the beggar without an open war and hold the line against the rich one, under the threshold of a war.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by williams »



Nitin providing some clarity of the current situation. Probably we can deal with further salami slicing for now.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.voanews.com/a/india-china-l ... 67352.html
India Prepares for Long Haul on China Border Dispute
Anjana Pasricha, October 12, 2021

NEW DELHI — A deadlock in the latest round of talks between India and China on their disputed border means that tens of thousands of Indian troops will hunker down for a second winter in subzero temperatures in the Himalayan mountains.
The challenge of manning two contentious frontiers with rivals Pakistan and China comes at a time when the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan also could pose a security risk for the South Asian country, according to analysts.
While a dozen rounds of negotiations between Indian and Chinese military commanders since a deadly clash in June last year in Ladakh had helped contain tensions and led to troops pulling back from some disputed areas, efforts to disengage from other hotspots stalled Sunday.
Each side blamed the other for the breakdown – India said the Chinese side was not agreeable to its “constructive suggestions,” while the Chinese side blamed India for making “unreasonable and unrealistic demands.”
“The indications are very clear, that the Chinese are not going to move back from their position of April 2020, which is what India has been insisting upon. They have put the onus on India by saying it is up to us to adopt a responsible position,” said Jayadeva Ranade, who heads the Center of China’s Analysis and Strategy. “It basically means that India now has no option to manning two hostile borders because this situation is here to stay.”
India has deployed an estimated 50,000 troops, backed by artillery and fighter jets in the Ladakh region since last year along the so-called Line of Actual Control. That’s more than double the number before hostilities erupted last year, according to security analysts.
Although Indian soldiers are adept at high altitude warfare and accustomed to operating in punishing mountain terrain, where temperatures dip to minus 30 degrees Celsius, India’s worries center on the massive infrastructure that China is building on its side.
“The Chinese are sharply raising their military capability in Tibet along the Indian border, upgrading airfields, constructing residential facilities, helipads, dumps for ammunition, and other military infrastructure,” said Manoj Joshi, distinguished fellow at New Delhi’s Observer Research Foundation. “So, that is a real challenge for the Indian army.”
The build-up by the Chinese side means “they are there to stay,” India’s Army Chief M. M. Naravane said on Saturday. “If they are there to stay, we are there to stay, too. The build-up on our side and developments on our side, I would say are as good as what the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] has done.”While India is speeding up road projects to remote borders, building bridges and cutting tunnels through the mountains to facilitate troop movements, China has a head start, according to analysts.
......
Gautam
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Karan M »

nachiket wrote:
YashG wrote:
'Completely agree on the 20 year record wont change overnight' but we are also not as worse, just not pulling equal to our weight.
I made that comment because the pakis have achieved near parity with us in some areas where they have no business having it looking at our much larger defence budget. The have an equal number of refuelers and AWACS as us when they have a smaller fighter fleet and have to worry about only one front instead of two like us. Their major airbases all have much better infrastructure with multiple runways and lots of HAS. We are only now remedying the HAS situation and none of our airbases except for Gwalior seems to have 2 runways. They are now also buying 236 PLC-181 truck mounted guns while no orders for mounted guns for the IA have materialized despite local solutions available. Our Vajra orders are stuck at 100 again despite local assembly. They are buying 250 52 tonne VT-4 tanks as well. I don't need to remind you what the IA did to the Arjun. They made a very practical decision to order large numbers of JF-17's despite the aircraft's shortcomings keeping in mind their financial situation and the knowledge that they can get progressively better equipped versions in the future and upgrade the older ones. And whatever fun we may make of that aircraft when large numbers of JF-17's show up in an engagement like they did on Feb 27 2019, we will have to assign resources to deal with them, resources which will therefore not be available to counter their more dangerous jets. Meanwhile we had IAF officers deriding the Tejas as a three legged cheetah or Mig-21++ not too long ago and Parrikar ji (bless his soul) had to do a lot of hand wringing to even make them accept the Mk1A. Now we are again in a precarious situation with only 30 squadrons and no easy way out.

So yes they do utilize the limited resources they have far better than we do ours despite having a lot more.
Precisely. I find it incredible we have the most nationalist Govt we have had in decades, yet they won't open the purse strings for essential purchases when the Wolves are at the door, and are still playing the emergency purchases game.

Its just baffling.

We could have at least ordered the 2 Phalcons, CIWS (to defend against PGMs), a few regiments of Bharat-52, long range BVR for the Su-30 (not just parity), the 33 Flankers and MiG-29s, and we'd be seeing deliveries and rapid induction now.

We are sitting on financial resources that dwarf Pakistans. Yet soon they will have more AEW&CS than ours, with our program to make more merely sanctioned this year. We are literally penny pinching. The 83 Tejas order was delayed for so long that the 36 month delivery timeline started earlier this year.

OTOH we want to talk of repeating the surgical strikes. OTOH we won't arm for it. The delay and chaos with the OFB only means their ever ready delays and late deliveries will stretch even more. We didn't even find alternate pvt sector suppliers to them previously and kept debating. At least now we should place orders on pvt suppliers.

TBH with such a cavalier approach to conflict is it any surprise that China and Pak think they can arm twist us? They know our deployments are to hold territory. We are clearly not prepared for the kind of conflict that would go into TAR and create a mess. In any other country, all the key stakeholders MOD, MoF, RBI etc would sit together and somehow find a way. We simply aren't bothered beyond band aids - retire x person after 2 more years etc etc. Penny pinching and steady modernisation have had their run, we need more rapid platform inductions now and a bigger boost to R&D to rapidly accelerate key developmental trials and go for rapid induction.

We need radical moves but all we've got from MoF has been incrementalism.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by YashG »

nachiket wrote:YashG, none of that is going to change the fact that the PLAAF is inducting several squadrons worth of new 4th and 5th gen fighters every year, or that the PLAN inducts large surface combatants at an unheard of rate or that they are furiously building longer runways, expanding apron space and building more HAS at their airbases in Tibet and Xinjiang or that they continue to bring in large numbers of artillery, armor and other assets facing our forces in eastern Ladakh and AP etc. etc. Their predicted financial woes are an interesting discussion for the PRC economy thread but they do not affect the military situation in the near future at least.
Nachiket ur correct. Chineae economic woes will change nothing in near term. We have to get going. There is ofcourse no excuse for invets and induct.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nam »

If GoI really wants, it has the way and means to increase buying of the firepower mass. Defence service, banks, DPSU all come under GOI. GoI could arrange for a sovereign loan from the banks or a local bond for Indian citizens to fund a major buildup of kit.

What we need is numbers from local industry. The key are fighters, artillery & PGM. All of these are available locally. But alas..

All GoI needs to do is give a interest free loan to BF/LT/Tata for a large 155MM artillery purchase or issue a bond, which can fund this purchase. Similarly for HAL.

But then we have a situation where our services are not really planning for a war. They are in to finding ways to import. IAF is choking LCA numbers & everything else for it's dream of more Rafale. IA is letting the artillery issue continue to import ATHOS.

Sigh
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by kumarn »

A 25k crore order to HAL will increase its market capitalisation by 25k crore. Someone in GOI needs to be a bit smarter than they are.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by AshishA »

nam wrote:We have 2 type of adversary. One where money & resource is not a problem and another one a beggar with nothing to loose :roll:

We have to defend ourself from attacks from the beggar and incursion from the rich. At the same time grow our economy. Cannot go to a open war with the beggar or with the rich, as there is no clear objective. We don't want to invade the beggar and is difficult to defeat the rich.

The only way out is to punish the beggar without an open war and hold the line against the rich one, under the threshold of a war.
The only way we can deal with it for now is by keep Beggars attention on Afghanistan and internal issues and the rich guys attention on their little islands they so want to invade.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by yensoy »

kumarn wrote:A 25k crore order to HAL will increase its market capitalisation by 25k crore. Someone in GOI needs to be a bit smarter than they are.
I see where you are going. So GoI orders from HAL, drives up the market price and sells some part of its ownership to recoup the cost of the order? Brilliant strategy.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by williams »

yensoy wrote:
kumarn wrote:A 25k crore order to HAL will increase its market capitalisation by 25k crore. Someone in GOI needs to be a bit smarter than they are.
I see where you are going. So GoI orders from HAL, drives up the market price and sells some part of its ownership to recoup the cost of the order? Brilliant strategy.
That tool is always there but who is going to bell the cat. It is political suicide. Let me explain. If you are selling private equity you need to perform. That means no wastage of resources and profitability. Which then means performance based management. Which means many HAL employees won't like it. Followed by strikes, followed by opposition making hay out of it. Followed by commie media supporting it. Followed by BeeBeeSea and foreign media jokers asking for regime change. I am telling you these internal enemies are worse than the Chinese and Pakis.

I think the best plan will be to reduce the scope of HAL and bring in more new private players. Let the private players create separate assembly lines with direct inputs from DRDO/ADA. Private players can pull the performers out of these PSUs. Leave the PSUs alone and slowly silently kill them.
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