India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

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Dilbu
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Dilbu »

Jammu and Kashmir: LeT's suicide bomber, planning to target Army, nabbed along LoC in Rajouri
Jammu and Kashmir: The Indian Army on Sunday nabbed an intruding terrorist on the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir's Rajouri district. The development comes after security forces noticed suspicious movement in the Sehar Makri area of the Nowshera sector Sunday evening.

The terrorist has been identified as Tabrak Hussain - a suicide bomber who was sent across the border by the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).

Upon encountering security forces, the terrorist started to run back towards the Pakistan side of the LoC.

He was nabbed after the troops fired at him. Hussain was shifted to the Army's hospital in Rajouri after being provided first aid.

During the interrogations, he revealed he was sent as part of the LeT suicide squad to target Army installations along the LoC.

This is the second time that he crossed the LoC.

Earlier in 2016, he was nabbed by troops in the Jhanghar area while trying to plant an IED.

After 26 months of imprisonment, he was repatriated from the Attari-Wagah border. He disclosed that he was cultivated by the ISI and worked for the Intelligence Unit for approximately two years.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Nihat »

This seems like quite a silly thing to do with a pakistani, unless there was a double agent angle to it
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by sum »

I thought the general process was ¨no prisoners policy¨ if the caught guy happened to be a non-Indian, esp after the Kandahar hijackings?

Or maybe he was a cultivated asset who went rogue again, else doesn't make sense being sent back when not a ¨official agency spy¨ of TSP
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Cyrano »

Sending such vermin back with full state honours is the stupidest thing to do. They should be jailed for life, made to do hard labour and wages sent to family of terror victims or such association.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by James »

He could have been traded for someone from our side as well, who was caught by the Pakis. Don't know for sure, but it is possible.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/Firezstarter1/statu ... Fz9uJ_TZ6g ---> Interesting. As long as PRC is occupied with Taiwan, the rest of it's "aspirations" are on the backburner. Clock is ticking for Indian military modernisation too. Net, in our/Asia's interest that Taiwan remain independent.

Pelosi’s visit spurs Chinese discussions on a two-front crisis
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ ... nt-crisis/
20 Aug 2022
Once Taiwan is taken over, it is argued, the PLA will have a freer hand to deal with India and even recover other disputed territories.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Aldonkar »

Cyrano wrote:Sending such vermin back with full state honours is the stupidest thing to do. They should be jailed for life, made to do hard labour and wages sent to family of terror victims or such association.
They should not announce his capture, but arrange for a premature explosion of his explosives while he is preparing his mission. Saves a lot of money and sends a message to Pak.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Larry Walker »

<POOF>

Admin note: no racial ephithets. Informal warning
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Roop »

Larry Walker wrote:... while on our side lutyens media will do all the randi-rona on even small losses to show how PRC is thumbing-down Modi.
Sad to say, it is not just the Lutyens media who will do this. Political parties like INC, AAP, CPI etc. will be happy to do it too, and they have done it in the past. Remember the "saboot" gang from the Balakot skirmish?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Roop »

I have a question about the border area (i.e. the LOC) between J&K and POK:- In various accounts I have read about military action between IA and terrorists/PA, I have heard two names of rivers mentioned -- Kishenganga and Neelum. My question is, are these two different rivers or two different names for the same river (i.e. we call it Kishenganga and Pakis call it Neelum)? :?:

TIA.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Atmavik »

same river that runs along the LOC
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Aditya_V »

Pakis find Kishenganga too dharmic, hence Neelam.name of a Hindu female they self detonate on, Shakargarh Bulge, Poonch Bulge and Neelam Valley are the main trouble spots for us, these along with Thaparkar area of Sindh, Desoi plains, Hunza Valley should be merged with us and the Paki population must go to thier lands and independent Baluchistan will help stabilize the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia to some extent
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramana »

Grp Capt Hari Nair, I have a question about the thread.
We are discussing bored responses but not holistic military domain responses.
The Challenge of China requires a multi-domain response. I am thinking of creating a new thread in the Strat forum to discuss that aspect. This thread can remain for border incidents.
What do you think?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Pratyush »

India, China troops begin disengagement at Gogra-Hot Springs in Ladakh
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 076682.cms
08 Sep 2022
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by SSridhar »

With China, we have to do two things: give back equally, preferably more, than what we get; stand firm without conceding anything.

Just prior to Wang Yi’s arrival in March this year, the Chinese side had proposed a solution for disengagement at PP-15. It proposed that Indian troops move back to the Karam Singh Post between PP 16 and PP 17. China said it would withdraw its troops just behind the Line of Actual Control (LAC) as claimed by India in that region. Clever-by-half. The proposal was rejected since the Chinese claim line and India’s understanding of the LAC almost intersect at PP 15. If India were to accept the proposal, it would mean that while Chinese troops would move back very little, Indian troops would have to withdraw several kilometres behind. Besides, the Chinese proposal meant relinquishing even PP16 which has never been claimed by China earlier.

The 16th Commander-level meeting was held on 17th July 2022 (after a gap of four months) where China was asked to withdraw its troops and tents at two friction points in eastern Ladakh PP-15 and Charding Ninglung Nallah (CNN) track junction at Demchok, while also seeking restoration of patrolling rights at the Depsang Plains (PPs-10, thru' 13). The talks ended in failure. The Chinese did not agree to the Indian proposal to even complete the stalled troop disengagement at PP-15.

Now comes this news.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shaun »

SSridhar wrote:With China, we have to do two things: give back equally, preferably more, than what we get; stand firm without conceding anything.

Just prior to Wang Yi’s arrival in March this year, the Chinese side had proposed a solution for disengagement at PP-15. It proposed that Indian troops move back to the Karam Singh Post between PP 16 and PP 17. China said it would withdraw its troops just behind the Line of Actual Control (LAC) as claimed by India in that region. Clever-by-half. The proposal was rejected since the Chinese claim line and India’s understanding of the LAC almost intersect at PP 15. If India were to accept the proposal, it would mean that while Chinese troops would move back very little, Indian troops would have to withdraw several kilometres behind. Besides, the Chinese proposal meant relinquishing even PP16 which has never been claimed by China earlier.

The 16th Commander-level meeting was held on 17th July 2022 (after a gap of four months) where China was asked to withdraw its troops and tents at two friction points in eastern Ladakh PP-15 and Charding Ninglung Nallah (CNN) track junction at Demchok, while also seeking restoration of patrolling rights at the Depsang Plains (PPs-10, thru' 13). The talks ended in failure. The Chinese did not agree to the Indian proposal to even complete the stalled troop disengagement at PP-15.

Now comes this news.
Does it make any difference on ground ? For decades the chinese side have meticulously built roads for patrolling their perceived line which runs deep inside our perceived LAC . Actually in some patches we patrolled using their roads and tracks . They can effectively stop our patrolling and these is what they have achieved in last 2 years. These buffer zones negotiated like what happened at Finger 4 to 8 is best bargain for us. Thats is face saver for both as chinese got to keep their physical infra and we being able to temporally restrict chinese moment at our perceived PP

The other alternative is dismantle or annex their roads and put a permanent stop to their ingress and that means War.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramana »

Pratyush wrote:India, China troops begin disengagement at Gogra-Hot Springs in Ladakh
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 076682.cms
08 Sep 2022
Very significant agreement.
Kudos to all those involved in this agreement
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramana »

SS, Its a big deal. Go back to your gurus. They will explain.

Shaun Yes it's big deal. It restores the status quo ante as of April 2020.

Kudos to all those who worked hard over the last two years and the Galwan braves, the Kailash ranges victors.
So many to thank and they know who they are.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shaun »

ramana wrote:SS, Its a big deal. Go back to your gurus. They will explain.

Shaun Yes it's big deal. It restores the status quo ante as of April 2020.

Kudos to all those who worked hard over the last two years and the Galwan braves, the Kailash ranges victors.
So many to thank and they know who they are.
Ramana Sir ,

1. We don't know whether the same buffer concept being implemented for PP15 and if yes , then PP15 is out of bound for our patrolling team. Yes the same applies for Chinese too. That's the best we can extract in the present scenario.

2. If not for our disproponate response to chinese agression , they would have never agreed to these withdrawal.

3. It's high time CSG advisories pertaining to construction of roads by Chinese in our perceived LAC and PPs being made public , so that common citizens know what our successive govts did wrt to countering it after the 1994 parliament resolution . This is important to progressively make the citizens aware in case of any permanent boundary settlement with Chinese. In any disputed land , who ever can construct and control road on it , will always have the upperhand at the negotiation table.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramana »

Agree. However will politicize the past.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shaun »

That lies with the incumbent govt . I am sure no successive govts can escape the inaction from their part to effectively counter Chinese land grabbing specially after operation Falcon . That operation itself forced the then govt to start talks and thus these border agreements came into being , to pacify the chinese ! which the Chinese used in their favor by building roads and other necessary infra.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Pratyush »

ramana wrote:Agree. However will politicize the past.
Given the parliamentary resolution WRT, the whole of erstwhile state of J&K. I am not sure that it's a bad thing.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by A Deshmukh »

Why did the Chinese agree to this disengagement?
Why now?

possible reasons:
r1: Fatigue:
Chinese is loosing soldiers in winters and does not want to loose more this winter.
Cannot gain anything more, with Indian troops on alert and not withdrawing.

r2: Feint
lull Indians into complacency so that they can act somewhere else.
somewhere else = Taiwan, or different location in Arunachal/Bhutan/Sikkim/Nepal/Uttarakhand

r3: Feint/Trap:
with TSP in dire straits, India would act on PoK sooner than later.
Chinese will make their move during that time.

r4: Political rapprochement:
Want to push for greater BRICS initiatives and border dispute was a thorn.
Want to remove/reduce ban on Chinese imports/apps by India.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Cyrano »

4,2,1,3 for me.

Not to takeaway any credit from our soldiers, military leadership and political leadership who made China realise that this is a dead end militarily and geo-politically.

However, I think China has gained something in the whole process, and India has lost something. Its only but natural that the one who takes initiative with reasonable risks gets some reward.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by srin »

Depsang remains unresolved ?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by S_Madhukar »

But there is nothing to prevent them to do the same or do it again next summer, while we bled soldiers and equipment(their bleeding does not bother me). Not sure what military countermeasures we have in place to avoid a repeat. I hope we give back enough that they decide to do these shenanigans with other small players. On the economic and political side we played all the right moves.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by SidSoma »

S_Madhukar wrote:But there is nothing to prevent them to do the same or do it again next summer, while we bled soldiers and equipment(their bleeding does not bother me). Not sure what military countermeasures we have in place to avoid a repeat. I hope we give back enough that they decide to do these shenanigans with other small players. On the economic and political side we played all the right moves.

Same holds good for us. There is nothing to prevent us from taking over to our claim line.....Attack is some times the best form of defence
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Guddu »

When we look at reasons for China's willingness to pull back, plans to take Taiwan might be at the forefront. A lesser, perhaps theoretical possibility is, that perhaps the Dragon & Bear are trying to pull India in its orbit. If the 3 join hands, they become unbeatable. This would be analogous to earlier US efforts to woo Russia away from getting too close to China (which failed).

These days the world is changing, the almighty US $ is a paper currency backed by nothing but guns. Europe is realizing that you cannot print $ or Euros to buy hard assets like oil. Commodity producers like Russia are king.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by NRao »

I think this is part of a much larger dynamic: Russia, US, China, and India dynamics, and not a bipartisan dynamics between India and China.

IMO, as I have state before (Feb, 2022), India is sitting very pretty.

As we type we are witnessing the reconstruction of the world order. India is being seen as a pole. PLA/CpC/Xi withdrawal is only part of that dynamics
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by bala »

The 4 legged stool of Russia, US, China, and India has each country not in synch/hating 1 nation in particular. The US not liking Russia and vice versa, India and China at odds with other. If 3 of them band together then the fourth is outmatched. Of all possible 3 combination, only the Russia, China and India has a chance but India is not opposed to the US. Eventually all 4 recognize each other's strength and come to an understanding of treating each other with respect and not taking the other for granted. We should see this outcome evolving in the days to come.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by midoff »

Trust but verify is the operative term when dealing with the PLA after these events.
CPEC after the floods is pretty much under water at this time, and the Taleban V2.0 in Afghanistan are likely to be hostile to the BRI, which opens up several border conflicts on the Durand line which we know about, but causes uncertainty for the PLA in those undefined borderlands with the PRC.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Rakesh »

midoff wrote:Trust but verify is the operative term when dealing with the PLA after these events.
CPEC after the floods is pretty much under water at this time, and the Taleban V2.0 in Afghanistan are likely to be hostile to the BRI, which opens up several border conflicts on the Durand line which we know about, but causes uncertainty for the PLA in those undefined borderlands with the PRC.
Please change your username to a human sounding one. If you need assistance, please do let me know and I will change it for you.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by bala »

China’s military confirms disengagement at LAC in Ladakh

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 869582.ece
September 09, 2022
China’s military on Friday, September 9, 2022, confirmed it had begun the process of disengagement from Patrolling Point 15 in Gogra-Hot Springs, in another step towards resolving the stand-off between India and China in Eastern Ladakh. China’s Ministry of Defence, in a statement identical to what India released on Thursday, noted that “according to the consensus reached in the 16th Round of China-India Corps Commander Level Meeting, the Chinese and Indian troops in the area of Jianan Daban [as China refers to the PP15 area] have begun to disengage in a coordinated and planned way, which is conducive to the peace and tranquillity in the border areas.”

India and China had previously disengaged at PP14 in Galwan Valley in 2020, in Pangong Lake in February 2021, and in PP17A in Gogra in August last year. Issues at Demchok and Depsang remain unresolved.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramana »

True Demchok and Depsang still there.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by SSridhar »

bala wrote:The 4 legged stool of Russia, US, China, and India has each country not in synch/hating 1 nation in particular. The US not liking Russia and vice versa, India and China at odds with other. If 3 of them band together then the fourth is outmatched. Of all possible 3 combination, only the Russia, China and India has a chance but India is not opposed to the US. Eventually all 4 recognize each other's strength and come to an understanding of treating each other with respect and not taking the other for granted. We should see this outcome evolving in the days to come.
Our only and biggest enemy is China. This is a permanent threat. Let's be clear about this. I am puzzled by the highlighted statement.

Moreover, China doesn't want to share space with anyone. No modus vivendi and no modus operandi with anyone else.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by bala »

SSridhar wrote:I am puzzled by the highlighted statement.
Of all possibilities the highlighted one is plausible. Any other combination will not work. China happens to have both nations, Indian and Russia, on its borders. If US and China get together they could keep the rest in check. But the recent China / Russia alliance against the US in Ukr casts a major shadow on that possibility.

Traditionally over many centuries India and China have existed peacefully. Only the recent CCCP dispensation in China is at odds with India. The relationship of India/Russia and Russia/China is relatively strong, only the gap between India and China exists. India is in a better position since it is the rising economy compared to the others.

The Quad is a useless detour for India. The recent F-16 aid to Pukis by the US just shows how hollow the Quad relationship has become. China could negate the Quad completely, if they were to recognize India and have a rapproachment with India. No more threatening behavior. This would be the smart move by China CCP. The ladakh withdrawal has a slight movement in this direction. But I still have my doubts on whether this would happen completely.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by mody »

Depsang and Demchok remain unresolved.
Some earlier reports suggested that India was insisting on tackling all the contentious points together, whereas the Chinese as per their tactic wanted to tackle only 1 point at a time and were not interested in discussing Depsang and Demchok at all. As per them, these points were not part of the current conflict.

All in all, I would say that the Chinese tactic was a little better, as if all the friction points had been resolved together, then the give and take involved would have been the sum of all. Instead as each individual point was resolved one after the other, there was a give and take for each point. Perhaps the Chinese were able to extract is little more buffer area from India, by this approach.

Some movement was probably made from the Chinese proposal from February, as now the Indian troops will pull back to PP16, instead of PP17A, as the Chinese had suggested in February. Don't know what changed between July 2022 and now. Almost the same proposal was probably made in July as well, but the movement on the same has only happened now.

As per my very little and amateur understanding, the Demchok issue is minor and not a serious problem and it is meant to prevent India from gaining an advantageous position in the region, rather than helping China gain an advantage or take control of some territory.
The Depsang problem is much more serious and there are some murmurs that if Xi and Modi do have a one on one meeting at the SCO or some other forum, before the Chinese congress meets, then there might be some movement on this issue or maybe some mechanism might be devised to prevent eastern Ladakh type of flair up in the future. Let's see, similar noises were made after Doklam as well, but that didn't really pan out.

However, over the last 2 years of this conflict, India's military strength and the infrastructure on the Indian side, have relatively improved by a greater extent, then the military strength and infrastructure on the Chinese side. Going forward, both the infrastructure on our side and our military strength will continue to improve at a faster pace that China, primarily as we are starting from a lower base, particularly in the infrastructure arena. With more and more indigenous weapons systems coming online over the next 8-10 years, the balance will continue to tilt in our favour by 2030.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ritesh »

Cyrano wrote:4,2,1,3 for me.

Not to takeaway any credit from our soldiers, military leadership and political leadership who made China realise that this is a dead end militarily and geo-politically.

However, I think China has gained something in the whole process, and India has lost something. Its only but natural that the one who takes initiative with reasonable risks gets some reward.
Certainly looks like that. What was the hurry, any agreement should have been delayed till peak winter and date of mutual withdrawal to next spring. They should have made to taste the winter chill and some barf this year too.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Cyrano »

Whatever gains China might have made in terms of territory or better positions or some near term quid pro quo have come at a long term cost.

Badly soured relations with India
They cannot salami slice anymore - the whole LAC and border is thoroughly monitored and Swift, punitive action plans are in place
Indian side border infa has vastly improved
Stronger intent and urgency to Atmanirbhar & Make in India - few hundreds of billions of exports lost in this decade
US seeking more rapprochement with India, Intel sharing
...etc.

So by taking initiative in this way, China has also made a strategic blunder.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramana »

srin wrote:Depsang remains unresolved ?
And Demchhok.

When the process started it was clearly stated each point will be dealt with individually.

So have patience.

Mody gives a good explanation
No need for me to repeat.
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