India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

[arshyam]

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 60961?s=20 ---> Interestingly the new commander of Flag of China PLA's Western Theater Command & GOC-in-C of Indian Army's Northern Command met each other during Sino-Indian joint military exercise in Pune (2016).

For a moment, I thought we were exercising with the US Marine Corps, the PLA General looks like a US Marine... digital camo, cap and the salute, all khan-like

I know these things change over time, but the resemblance felt too uncanny.

[shyamd]

x post

Latest SitRep

- GOI is implementing a strategy & plan on Afghanistan that was created earlier this year. Plan was in process of being updated during collapse.
....
- Intel assessment is that TSPA will turn up temperature in LoC and J&K very soon... There is a gradual redeployment of terror groups towards LoC (with Afghans being spotted).
- Meet held between PM, Def min, Home min yesterday. Number of options have been proposed by the Nat Sec (Defence is an element of Nat Sec) team with dealing with Afghan situation... Range of issues are being managed including how GOI will secure it's interest (i.e. make sure Afghan soil is not used for terrorism which is the top priority).

- My view: Armed forces (IA/IAF) will be making preparations for deployment to somewhere in central asia in coalition with regional powers (if green light provided). I suspect Brigade level operation with some air cover. Primary task will be border security.

Update:
The diplomatic position of Russia, India and others is that if Afghan soil is used to launch terror attacks - ISI/TSPA will be held responsible as they now own the problem of Afghanistan. This has been communicated to TSPA via multiple emissaries.
Military operations is still on the cards.

[Pratyush]

The above warning is not worth anything. Who will be launching military operations against ISI. India? Russia? PRC?

PRC will not be a target of Taliban. Russia even if they become a target. They will not be getting into Afghanistan let alone TSP.

That leaves India. In the absence of a quad mutual defence pact. India will not make any offensive against against TSP. Because PRC is sitting on the LAC and this distraction will give them an invitation to teach India a lesson.

So India cannot take any offensive action against TSP or even Afghanistan.

But dil ko behlane ko ghalib ye khayal achaa hai.

[shyamd]

Nations will do what it takes to defend their interests... if you think these countries will sit around whilst Afghanistan is used to conduct terror activities on their soil I think you are mistaken.

Equally this doesn't mean that people want to collapse TSP as a state either... The policies put in place will have to balance both issues.

India isn't the only state facing these issues.

[Karan M]

+100. This GOI wont ever be silent when it comes to natsec issues of this magnitude.

[RKumar]

The above warning is not worth anything. Who will be launching military operations against ISI. India? Russia? PRC?

PRC will not be a target of Taliban. Russia even if they become a target. They will not be getting into Afghanistan let alone TSP.

That leaves India. In the absence of a quad mutual defence pact. India will not make any offensive against against TSP. Because PRC is sitting on the LAC and this distraction will give them an invitation to teach India a lesson.

So India cannot take any offensive action against TSP or even Afghanistan.

But dil ko behlane ko ghalib ye khayal achaa hai.

Cavemen can't fly to India so they travel via Napak with the support of ISI and PA. So any wrong action by cavemen in Bharat, Napak own the blame and we have enough ways to make them pay for such activities.

Regarding LAC, Are they ready to collect body bags for Napak?

[ritesh]

Ghar mein guss ke marenge.. . This time it would be 10x 20x time more severe than Balakot and Uri.

[Rakesh]

Balakot proved that you don't need to send a single soldier across the border to inflict damage.

If Pakistan really wants to continue using their soil - to transport Taliban or whoever else - to transfer terrorists into India, then it will be a sad day for them.

[ChanakyaM]

Indian Army tank drills in Ladakh today.

https://twitter.com/livefist/status/143 ... NcUEA&s=19

Impressive, but what is the objective? just show casing? all show and no action does nothing good. Its like the massive build up we did during Sri Vajpayee's time only to pull back.

[Rakesh]

Impressive, but what is the objective? just show casing? all show and no action does nothing good. Its like the massive build up we did during Sri Vajpayee's time only to pull back.

What is the objective you are looking for?

[shyamd]

- My view: Armed forces (IA/IAF) will be making preparations for deployment to somewhere in central asia in coalition with regional powers (if green light provided). I suspect Brigade level operation with some air cover. Primary task will be border security.

Some confirmation today of what is being considered...
Troops of Moscow-led security bloc may be sent to Tajikistan — Belarus’ Security Council

This opinion was expressed by chief of Belarus’ Security Council Alexander Volfovich in an article published in the SB. Belarus Today newspaper on Thursday.

He emphasized that the events in Afghanistan may lead to an increase in transnational challenges and threats. "The further escalation and the unpredictability of the situation do not exclude, among others, making a decision to deploy the military contingents of the Organization’s member states on the territory of Tajikistan in order to protect the Tajik-Afghan border as part of the Rapid Deployment Collective Forces of the Central Asian Region and the CSTO Collective Rapid Reaction Forces," he noted.

According to the official, it is necessary to "undertake additional efforts on bolstering diplomatic and military-political relations within the framework of the Union State, the CSTO, the SCO, as well as in a bilateral format with other foreign partners."

[Avik]

Shyamd- thank you for sharing your insights. Could you perhaps share some more on the UK's role in this? Are they the real power behind our Pindi marshals?

[ChanakyaM]

Impressive, but what is the objective? just show casing? all show and no action does nothing good. Its like the massive build up we did during Sri Vajpayee's time only to pull back.

What is the objective you are looking for?

How are we different from what the chinkies are doing by just show casing stuff. What have we achieved by stepping away from the strategic heights captured and by not making the chinkies pay for their transgression? This just seems a show for the aam janta and for some thigh slapping

[LakshmanPST]

What is the objective you are looking for?

How are we different from what the chinkies are doing by just show casing stuff. What have we achieved by stepping away from the strategic heights captured and by not making the chinkies pay for their transgression? This just seems a show for the aam janta and for some thigh slapping

Can you please elaborate what exactly the Govt. should do...?

[shyamd]

Shyamd- thank you for sharing your insights. Could you perhaps share some more on the UK's role in this? Are they the real power behind our Pindi marshals?

Thanks for your interest. The UK actually wanted to create a coalition to stay in Afghanistan.. but no one wanted to without US support.

There is a fundamental misunderstanding of the TSP generals mindset. They think TSP as a state will cease to exist if present Afghan dispensation stayed in power with western support.. West thought they could pay off the generals (to some extent this was tried by UPA as well) and everything will be fine.

As I said previously.. TSPA/ISI had 2 core interests:
1) position of Afghan Govt on Durand line
2) role of India in Afghanistan

Alas even when TSP as a state was pushed to the edge of collapse this was unpalatable because of risk of loose nukes and refugees…

The above doesn’t need the UK to be involved… People love a conspiracy theory..

[Manish_Sharma]

@daeroplate_v2

The remote Chinese regions of Xinjiang and Tibet bordering India will soon have 30 airports at the disposal of the Western Theatre Command (WTC) to facilitate the movement of army personnel, a state media report said this week.

Among the three new airports to be built in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) are those at Lhunze county, Tingri county and Burang county, close to the border with India, official media had reported earlier this year

Another strategic airport to be opened by the middle of 2022 is the Tashkurgan, the first super-high plateau airport in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region (XUAR) on the Pamir plateau, close to China’s border with Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Afghanistan.

Tiny Tashkurgan is the last important town in China close to PoK and located in the Tajik Autonomous County of the Kashgar prefecture in XUAR.

Nearly two dozen new air routes have also been inaugurated connecting TAR and XUAR with cities across China this year, the report said.

chartered flight carrying 115 veterans from Shigatse Heping Airport in Tibet and headed for Chengdu, Sichuan province, Sept 1, marking official opening of 23 air routes for transporting new recruits and veterans into and out of Xinjiang and Tibet in second half of this year,”

“It is also learnt that, in addition, some airlines help to reserve tickets of regular flights to Ngari in response to the troops’ emergency needs. And some urgently needed military supplies could also be delivered free of charge or at preferential rates by the civil airliners,”

Lhunze is about 70km north of the weakest infra sector of border - central arunachal. It is a big logistic depot enough for a corps+ though not as a google scale as nyingchi further east… but roles are similar - jump off and resupply points for large formations.

1km x 3km mass of depot warehouses and barracks. Vague signs of bunkers and tunnels in the hills. Lies in a valley heading straight to border.

Green astroturf fields are tell tale pug marks of large plagf barracks nearby


https://twitter.com/daeroplate_v2/statu ... 88674?s=19

[ArjunPandit]

Balakot proved that you don't need to send a single soldier across the border to inflict damage.

If Pakistan really wants to continue using their soil - to transport Taliban or whoever else - to transfer terrorists into India, then it will be a sad day for them.

also balakot was before air brahmos-su30, hammer/scalp-rafale, if bakis stick to their usual self..we will see them being used by end of this year..

[ChanakyaM]

How are we different from what the chinkies are doing by just show casing stuff. What have we achieved by stepping away from the strategic heights captured and by not making the chinkies pay for their transgression? This just seems a show for the aam janta and for some thigh slapping

Can you please elaborate what exactly the Govt. should do...?

Why the rhetorical question? a Question to a Question I posed does not offer anything? What was the objective in relinquishing positions that were captured in the offensives? I am aware such things are not discussed in open but there are many contributors here that have more knowledge than me and sure could offer a thing or two as way of explanation.

Making statements on POK is not enough, we should have taken it by now and established a buffer zone. I know its easier said than done but Indian armed forces are capable of doing that and its the GOI that is always the weak link in this whole business. We need to be move from a reactive force to a pro-active force and extend our strength and claim what is rightfully ours.

[LakshmanPST]

Why the rhetorical question? a Question to a Question I posed does not offer anything? What was the objective in relinquishing positions that were captured in the offensives? I am aware such things are not discussed in open but there are many contributors here that have more knowledge than me and sure could offer a thing or two as way of explanation.

The objective for relinquishing the positions on Kailash Heights is that there is disengagement in Pangong Tso sector...
Whether we have enough leverage to push for disengagement in remaining sectors is something we civilians don't know... It is still an ongoing process...

Making statements on POK is not enough, we should have taken it by now and established a buffer zone. I know its easier said than done but Indian armed forces are capable of doing that and its the GOI that is always the weak link in this whole business. We need to be move from a reactive force to a pro-active force and extend our strength and claim what is rightfully ours.

No Govt. will launch an offensive without casus belli. You need casus belli not to fight the war, but to manage the politics (both domestic & international) before, during and after the war... It was never about capabilities.

[Deans]

@daeroplate_v2

The remote Chinese regions of Xinjiang and Tibet bordering India will soon have 30 airports at the disposal of the Western Theatre Command (WTC) to facilitate the movement of army personnel, a state media report said this week.

Among the three new airports to be built in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) are those at Lhunze county, Tingri county and Burang county, close to the border with India, official media had reported earlier this year

The airfields near the LAC are all within Pinaka range. (at high altitude range is extended).
With the Himalayas as a barrier to detection, all these airfields will have almost no warning of incoming IAF aircraft from ground based radar.
At the altitude the airfields are at, there will be a severe penalty in payload, or range, or both.
I don't think anyone has figured out what the loss in efficiency will be for pilots and ground crews operating in an oxygen scarce environment.

All the 30 airports meant to facilitate the movement of troops, will still have to use 1 highway, the G-219.

[Deans]

What is the objective you are looking for?

How are we different from what the chinkies are doing by just show casing stuff. What have we achieved by stepping away from the strategic heights captured and by not making the chinkies pay for their transgression? This just seems a show for the aam janta and for some thigh slapping

We did not `capture' anything. We occupied our own territory. In the process, we got the PLA to vacate the finger area and significantly disengage
from Hot springs-Gogra. The question to ask is what did PLA achieve after moving 2 divisions, 2000+ km and making them stay over a year, at a multiple of the expense we incurred and taking a large number of altitude related casualties.

Our own counter deployment has resulted in the creation of LAC infrastructure, we otherwise would not have had - narrowing the gap with China.
We were able to make that deployment without affecting our deployment in the CI grid, or on the LOC. On the LOC a simple rule to remember, is that the losing side is the one that asks for the ceasefire first, as Pak did. Pak has also got the message that PLA won't actually fight, they only try to intimidate. At least Pak army fires at us and inflicts and incurs casualties.

On the tank exercise - its very difficult to get armored vehicles to operate at 15,000 ft. For e.g. they lose half their engine power. No one has done it so far, except IA tanks actually in Ladakh. If you can get a tank regiment to move as desired, it sends a huge message on our readiness.

[ChanakyaM]

How are we different from what the chinkies are doing by just show casing stuff. What have we achieved by stepping away from the strategic heights captured and by not making the chinkies pay for their transgression? This just seems a show for the aam janta and for some thigh slapping

We did not `capture' anything. We occupied our own territory. In the process, we got the PLA to vacate the finger area and significantly disengage
from Hot springs-Gogra. The question to ask is what did PLA achieve after moving 2 divisions, 2000+ km and making them stay over a year, at a multiple of the expense we incurred and taking a large number of altitude related casualties.

Our own counter deployment has resulted in the creation of LAC infrastructure, we otherwise would not have had - narrowing the gap with China.
We were able to make that deployment without affecting our deployment in the CI grid, or on the LOC. On the LOC a simple rule to remember, is that the losing side is the one that asks for the ceasefire first, as Pak did. Pak has also got the message that PLA won't actually fight, they only try to intimidate. At least Pak army fires at us and inflicts and incurs casualties.

On the tank exercise - its very difficult to get armored vehicles to operate at 15,000 ft. For e.g. they lose half their engine power. No one has done it so far, except IA tanks actually in Ladakh. If you can get a tank regiment to move as desired, it sends a huge message on our readiness.

Deans , thanks for clarification. So we occupied our own heights (which we were previously just monitoring) and put pressure on the chinks to withdraw from hotsprings area per this. Has china vacated or pulled back to their previous positions in Galwan and PPO?. There are conflicting reports that they reoccupied Black Top and Helmet areas last vacated (albeit uncorroborated).

What monetary cost chinks incurred is not of interest to me nor should be to anybody, they have tons of money to throw around and we don't its that simple. The human cost though something they have to seriously contend with and manage.

Our infra build up has been going on since Modi ji has taken office and it has definitely improved our reach and deployment capabilities and no complaints there. We have taken a reactive approach else where in POK and should be pro-active and take what is OURS. Its already too late now that we have the new afg situation brewing, before it gets stabilized we need to make our move.

[ChanakyaM]

Why the rhetorical question? a Question to a Question I posed does not offer anything? What was the objective in relinquishing positions that were captured in the offensives? I am aware such things are not discussed in open but there are many contributors here that have more knowledge than me and sure could offer a thing or two as way of explanation.

The objective for relinquishing the positions on Kailash Heights is that there is disengagement in Pangong Tso sector...
Whether we have enough leverage to push for disengagement in remaining sectors is something we civilians don't know... It is still an ongoing process...

Making statements on POK is not enough, we should have taken it by now and established a buffer zone. I know its easier said than done but Indian armed forces are capable of doing that and its the GOI that is always the weak link in this whole business. We need to be move from a reactive force to a pro-active force and extend our strength and claim what is rightfully ours.

No Govt. will launch an offensive without casus belli. You need casus belli not to fight the war, but to manage the politics (both domestic & international) before, during and after the war... It was never about capabilities.

What casus belli do we need? POK is ours and so is the aksai chin. We do not need any other reason to take it back

[Maria]

How are we different from what the chinkies are doing by just show casing stuff. What have we achieved by stepping away from the strategic heights captured and by not making the chinkies pay for their transgression? This just seems a show for the aam janta and for some thigh slapping

We did not `capture' anything. We occupied our own territory. In the process, we got the PLA to vacate the finger area and significantly disengage
from Hot springs-Gogra. The question to ask is what did PLA achieve after moving 2 divisions, 2000+ km and making them stay over a year, at a multiple of the expense we incurred and taking a large number of altitude related casualties.

Our own counter deployment has resulted in the creation of LAC infrastructure, we otherwise would not have had - narrowing the gap with China.
We were able to make that deployment without affecting our deployment in the CI grid, or on the LOC. On the LOC a simple rule to remember, is that the losing side is the one that asks for the ceasefire first, as Pak did. Pak has also got the message that PLA won't actually fight, they only try to intimidate. At least Pak army fires at us and inflicts and incurs casualties.

On the tank exercise - its very difficult to get armored vehicles to operate at 15,000 ft. For e.g. they lose half their engine power. No one has done it so far, except IA tanks actually in Ladakh. If you can get a tank regiment to move as desired, it sends a huge message on our readiness.

I couldn't have placed all this better, I hope this would put to rest the dhoti-shivering that we SDREs are performing without any shame here.

[ChanakyaM]

We did not `capture' anything. We occupied our own territory. In the process, we got the PLA to vacate the finger area and significantly disengage
from Hot springs-Gogra. The question to ask is what did PLA achieve after moving 2 divisions, 2000+ km and making them stay over a year, at a multiple of the expense we incurred and taking a large number of altitude related casualties.

Our own counter deployment has resulted in the creation of LAC infrastructure, we otherwise would not have had - narrowing the gap with China.
We were able to make that deployment without affecting our deployment in the CI grid, or on the LOC. On the LOC a simple rule to remember, is that the losing side is the one that asks for the ceasefire first, as Pak did. Pak has also got the message that PLA won't actually fight, they only try to intimidate. At least Pak army fires at us and inflicts and incurs casualties.

On the tank exercise - its very difficult to get armored vehicles to operate at 15,000 ft. For e.g. they lose half their engine power. No one has done it so far, except IA tanks actually in Ladakh. If you can get a tank regiment to move as desired, it sends a huge message on our readiness.

I couldn't have placed all this better, I hope this would put to rest the dhoti-shivering that we SDREs are performing without any shame here.

No dhothi shivering here, ghus ke maarne ko keh rahe hai hum tho

[Vivek K]

If we remember- PLA was threatening DBO. With the actions taken including infrastructure development, things are different now.

[ChanakyaM]

If we remember- PLA was threatening DBO. With the actions taken including infrastructure development, things are different now.

I hope we are not suggesting to sit and wait till PLA and its cronies make the next move. What happened to taking back POK? They have now officially made or making POK as a province. Once they do that it will no longer be disputed but become a part of napaak. Do we then twiddle our thumbs?

[arshyam]

What's this sudden urge to "take back" PoJK here and now? If it were that simple, we would have done it already, Modiji or no Modiji.

Let's not build tall, unstated (by the powers that be) and immediate targets and then cry that nothing is happening. PoJK was let go in '48, and taking it back by force would require a major military operation. Given a choice, that would happen only when GoI's other priorities are sorted out (economy, healthcare, jobs, Covid, etc.). The pakis know that, so they won't provoke us a beyond a point. While I too want to see the Arjun driving around Skardu, we should temper our expectations around existing circumstances. The fact is, GoI in all its wisdom let go of PoJK when circumstances were clearly in our favour, and then squandered every opportunity that came our way since, biggest being that of '71. If we couldn't use the '71 war as casus belli to retrieve PoJK, how would we do it now out of the blue? Is the Indian public even asking for it? At least then GoI could justify public opinion as the basis for some action..

Another fact is, we have kept our border areas denuded of any usable facility due to some UPSC-exam-brihaspati's brainwave that keeping border areas undeveloped would make them less attractive to the enemy (esp China). Guess what? That lack of facility hampers our own troops' ability to defend the area, let alone go on the offensive! We can sing "ae mere watan ke log" only so many times - can we afford to cede more border areas due to the simple reason that we did not build any facilities for our own people and troops in our own land? So we need to make up for decades of lost time and build infra in double quick time, so if we want to "take PoJK", we should be in a good position to defend against Chinese machinations at that time - they will do something to stop us from acting on PoJK, given their interests in the area. Same for the Tibetan border - any activity there needs supporting infra, and the PLA is not going to wait for us till we build our infra. They will keep poking and we will have to keep responding and keep poking back where possible. The latter becomes more possible as our infra improves and we can more than return the favour, i.e. take the initiative ourselves rather than react to their provocations. But while dealing with all this, is starting a full-fledged military operation to "take PoK" the right thing?

The same argument can be given for our MIC, or lack of it. We are still way too dependent on imported arms - so any such offensive would need support from these arms providers. Sad, but that's the reality. The pakis are valuable to a lot of countries for various reasons, so there will be some sort of restraint on us to do something. Solution? Remove that import dependency and make our own arms. Reduce the threat of the arms embargo, so we can act in our own national interest as and when we see fit. If anyone wants to ensure the sanctity of pak, let them put boots on the ground and spill blood rather than pontificate to us in the UNSC. But would anyone actually put boots on the ground against us? No chance. These powers today get away with verbal restraints on us because they can. So we have to remove that power - are we there yet? Sadly, no. This is another sordid saga of successive GoI failures in securing our national security - so a nuke power cannot pursue her own military and security policy based on her own requirements.

GoI is doing the right thing for now - keep the claim alive, prevent Chinese machinations in the area (read CPEC), stamp out terrorism, and use IWT to our advantage (and then take some more later). Build the heck out of infra in the forward areas so we can have both offensive and defensive options on the table. Build up and increase the heft of the domestic MIC by giving contracts to local companies, especially in the private sector (any BRFits can attest to the difficulty of this task). Integrating J&K is a huge step in the right direction, considering the dithering every post-Nehru govt practiced. It has already had a salutary effect on terrorist attacks. In the meantime, address the average person's problems by providing basic infra, jobs, etc. so rozi-roti issues are addressed. The aam aadmi will also start thinking of these problems once their daily issues are sorted, and they can bring pressure on a future GoI for some action - what better casus belli for a democracy than public opinion?

So, to take back PoJK, there will be an opportunity at some point and we should move then. Or create opportunities once other priorities have become less pressing. The latter is what GoI is doing now.

[arshyam]

They have now officially made or making POK as a province. Once they do that it will no longer be disputed but become a part of napaak. Do we then twiddle our thumbs?

Tell me this: will the Arjun or T-90 stall on the Uri border crossing because the other side is part of some province in pak?

[arshyam]

On the LOC a simple rule to remember, is that the losing side is the one that asks for the ceasefire first, as Pak did.

Looks like this rule applies to the LAC as well - it was the PLA that wanted talks immediately after we took the Kailash range heights.

[Roop]

What casus belli do we need? POK is ours and so is the aksai chin. We do not need any other reason to take it back

This is a very childish and foolish way of looking at strategy, and no country in its right mind will start a major war "because we have a right to do it and we feel morally justified".

I'll address the Paki question in a moment, but first let's talk China. As things stand at this moment, starting a major war against China to retake Aksai Chin (A/C) is IMO simply out of the question, assuming a sane set of planners New Delhi. Things might have been different if the Chinese were still taking panga with us now the way they have done many times in the past (salami slicing, building roads on our side of the LAC, etc.). Any of those actions, if conducted now, may well constitute a casus belli (C/B) to at least start a shooting war in Tibet (not just A/C but also across the border from Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh etc.). The object of the battle then would not necessarily be to capture the whole of A/C, but to seize and hold territory to be used as a bargaining chip in future negotiations.

Legal / moral reasons and justifications (which is what C/B is, in fancy Latin terminology) matter a lot on the international stage. Any nation starting wars without them will soon become an international pariah, and India cannot afford to take that risk. It may appear to some that countries like US/Russia/China do that a lot, but in fact they don’t. Even they, wealthy/powerful as they are, are careful to provide some justification for military action. For example, IMO Russia was well justified in occupying and annexing Crimea (the C/B was NATO’s treachery in Ukraine) and in their military ops in Syria (the C/B was ISIS chutiyapanti all over the middle east, aided and abetted by Turkey, Israel and the US). Likewise, IMO, Israel had a valid C/B to use its air force to bomb Hamas positions in Gaza, etc. You or I or anyone else may disagree with this or that C/B in any particular case, but the fact is that a substantial part of world opinion did, in fact, agree with them.

If we started a shooting war in either POK or A/C, and the war didn’t go well (e.g. lasted 2 weeks with no decisive outcome) and we had no halfway-reasonable C/B to offer the world, who the hell would side with India or bother doing business with us? Goodbye foreign investments, goodbye military cooperation etc. And we started it all for what reason?

World (to India): What the hell is going on? Why did you start this crazy war?

India (to world): Why do I need a special reason? This is my territory, that is reason enough. It has been under illegal occupation for 74 years, I put up with that patiently for all that time, but now I decided that enough was enough, so I decided to go to war.

World: WTF!! Why now? If it was okay for you (or at least tolerable) for 74 years, what changed?

And your suggested answer to this question would be…. ??

At least in the hypotheticals I presented earlier (China continuing its physical aggression), or Pakistan continuing its terrorism, our answer could be quite simple and reasonable: “China (or Pak) has made clear by its actions that it will not live peacefully as our neighbour, it will continue its hostile actions threatening India’s national security or vital national interests, so our hand was forced. We had no choice”.

The world (or at least a reasonable percentage of it) would reluctantly accept that reasoning.

[fanne]

Mods, can something be done on the trolling that is going on?

[Deans]

For those advocating `take back POK' here is a reality check:

We have deployed along the LOC: (North to South)
8th Mtn Div (XIV Corps) Dras
19th Inf Div Kupwara & 28th Inf Div Baramula (XV corps). 28 Div has 5 brigades
25th Inf Div Rajouri (XVI corps)
There is also a dual tasked 39th Mountain division of IX corps based in Yol.

Pakistan has:
4 Brigades of the FCNA (plus 1, facing our brigade in Siachen).
19th Inf Div Mangla, 12th Inf Division Muree (which has 6 brigades) & 23rd Inf Div Gujrat - all of X corps.

So there is parity with both sides having roughly 4 divisions (1 div of each side is over strength). In Kargil it took 2 divisions 2 months to evict a much smaller force of infiltrators. That is the nature of mountain warfare.

That said, in my opinion, it is possible to base one of our artillery divisions in the Kashmir valley, to give us superiority in guns if we have to use fire assaults to hit Pak posts or Infra along the LOC. We could look at a `reverse Kargil' by salami slicing posts in the northern part of the LOC which is unfenced, or make some vulnerable posts and villages uninhabitable, or complete the Tulbul barrage and release water from the Chenab, which can flood vulnerable parts of the Neelam or Gurez valleys.

[Deans]

What casus belli do we need? POK is ours and so is the aksai chin. We do not need any other reason to take it back

This is a very childish and foolish way of looking at strategy, and no country in its right mind will start a major war "because we have a right to do it and we feel morally justified".

At least in the hypotheticals I presented earlier (China continuing its physical aggression), or Pakistan continuing its terrorism, our answer could be quite simple and reasonable: “China (or Pak) has made clear by its actions that it will not live peacefully as our neighbour, it will continue its hostile actions threatening India’s national security or vital national interests, so our hand was forced. We had no choice”.

The world (or at least a reasonable percentage of it) would reluctantly accept that reasoning.

There are many options between `do nothing' and `declare war'.
With China, our biggest leverage is economic. After China-US, the 2nd biggest trade surplus is the $50 billion that China has over us. The question they need to ask is if they can afford to lose $50 billion, to occupy some uninhabited area of Ladakh ( and another 10 billion each year to sustain that presence). The real cost to China may be more because other countries may follow - just as if 1 dictator stops paying back his BRI loan, other dictators will follow and may even nationalise the assets given to China. We can't stop trade with China suddenly, but this should be a wake up call for our industry and babus to promote made in India.

With Pak there are a range of options along the LOC that the International community will not oppose (some may welcome them).
- Use all the water we are allowed under the IWT and start going beyond that, to get Pak to talk.
- Build the Tulbul barrage (ostensibly to help water transport) which can result in northern infiltration routes being flooded.
- Use heavy artillery (once we have superiority in numbers) against Pak posts and villages to prevent terrorist infiltration. If Pak targets our villages
along the LOC, they lose goodwill among Kashmiris.
- Stronger propaganda through TV and Radio, in Kashmiri, targeting POK
- Announce that new industries in J&K do not need environmental clearance - move highly polluting industries like leather or chemicals, to
rivers near the LOC, where polluted water will affect people downstream (in Pak).

[yensoy]

^^^^ Economic dependence on China is not something which can be stopped overnight. We depend on pretty much all components of our own manufacturing sector. Low-end finished goods get a lot of negative rap (as they should, given they are low-end low value consumer goods) but the big deficits are in technology components, tech finished products, and machinery for which there are few alternatives. China has the supply chain all sewn up and the whole world is trying to figure out how to undo or replicate this, to make even a 10-20% second source alternative.

[Deans]

^^^^ Economic dependence on China is not something which can be stopped overnight. We depend on pretty much all components of our own manufacturing sector. Low-end finished goods get a lot of negative rap (as they should, given they are low-end low value consumer goods) but the big deficits are in technology components, tech finished products, and machinery for which there are few alternatives. China has the supply chain all sewn up and the whole world is trying to figure out how to undo or replicate this, to make even a 10-20% second source alternative.

You are right and any economic measures have to be carefully thought through. My point is that we we are barely trying - I have written on the subject, but our importer/trader lobby is just too strong. For e.g.
- Many of the banned apps are back.
- Most of our mobile phones are Chinese. They aren't manufactured here, only the components are assembled with under 10% local value addition. Data (of over half the country) is stored in China.
- We still import most of our soft toys, cheap gadgets etc from China.
- Hong Kong is used to get around Anti dumping duties by China. Asian FTA countries are another route. We do not check for the % of value addition in the exporting country.
- In the power sector. If we were to replace solar cells from Chinese to American, the cost of power will still be less than the avg. India pays.
- We failed to develop Drug API's (raw materials) and 80% is still imported from China
- There's no reason why Govt entities/ PSU's and any company where Govt has a significant shareholding cannot ban products from any country which endangers national security (Pak & China). This will comply with WTO norms - as will a security tax on the same companies for other imports, for the same reason.

[nam]

There is no point discussing the options regarding LoC. We currently have the best possible "nationalistic" government in place. But even it cannot shake off the "aman-asha" and we are one people syndrome.

Pak has learnt the trick of the trade.

Step 1: Pak sends across cannon fodders with artillery support. We kill and get killed in the process. We respond with artillery fire. The exchange goes on for a while. Pak calls up our DGMO, says "sorry, won't do it again". Every one goes back to "peace". Few weeks later things repeat.

Step 2: If this cycle escalates, Pak pings US, US pings Saudi or UAE. They bring Pak message to Delhi. All brothers in Delhi decide to give the cross border brother another chance. We are all the same people, who like Bollywood and Punjabi songs.

Everyone goes back to peace.

Step 3: After few months repeat Step 1 and then few months later progress to Step 2.

[nam]

We had ONE golden opportunity to hammer every terror infra in Pak during Feb 2019. What did we do? We left 3 holes on a roof and till this day nobody is really sure what happened.

I am now fairly confident, there was back channel Track 2 going on in 2019 and GoI wanted to protect it by restricting our response. Pak has perfected the game of terror & track 2.

[Cyrano]

Now that US has exited Afghanistan, there can be no room for any back channel pressures by US. It actually frees India to pursue any covert/overt action as it sees fit. We are on our own and thats mighty good.

If and when India acts, Pakis will start waving the (dirty) bum bogey. India must have a RAW plan to deal with that (may be we already do) instead of A. imagining US has already nook-nuded Pak therefore its an empty threat (they could have refined more material) or B. hoping that US will step in to save the day by preventing material from falling into wrong hands or weapons mated with WHs.

The threat perception now might be somewhat higher, but India's border defences are very robust now, and the will to act has been demonstrated. I don't think next time we'll stop at just 3 holes or whatever else was done last time which doesnt get much attention.

[Vidur]

Eye opening

https://twitter.com/Ak5985965/status/13 ... 38786?s=09