India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 25 Feb 2021 17:20

could be bakis are gonna get some money from 4fathers in lieu of this ceasefire and krore kamandus will take the offer right now cos bakis are bankrupt.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Feb 2021 17:33

Pakis once they get thier money will break the ceasefire.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 25 Feb 2021 18:29

Aditya_V wrote:Pakis once they get thier money will break the ceasefire.

I hope this time it is us. Let them move their troops to their western side fully then we can start again pinning them down in LOC as punishment for infiltration.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Feb 2021 18:30

I highly doubt it, it is in our nature to trust the snake and get bitten.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Feb 2021 18:36

There is a context as to why I see the ceasefire from Pak as being very significant.

I track militancy related numbers in Kashmir. When article 370 was abrogated, it was widely expected, even from optimistic nationalists like me,
that Militancy and unrest will go up in the short term.

If 370 was to be a success, it would be because development activity in the valley would be bigger and more efficiently executed.
That did not happen, thanks in part to Covid.
The biggest industry in Kashmir, tourism was finished for 2 consecutive seasons. That alone should have been enough for Kashmiri stone throwers to come out. The economy tanked. Govt lost a series of state elections. We had CAA/NRC/ Farmer unrest.
It was a perfect opportunity for China-Pak to threaten us. This was the kind of scenario their most optimistic view would resemble.
In reality we had in 2020:

Militant deaths are higher than 2018 & 19. Civilian and Security forces deaths are at their lowest in the past decade.
The number of arrested militants in 2020 is the highest since 2007.
Approx 550 killed or arrested terrorists accounted for 58 security personnel killed.
The ratio of Militants neutralised: Security forces killed is the highest in a decade.
(Security forces killed include unarmed JKP/CRPF, not just Army/RR).
Civilian deaths down and almost none at the hands of security forces.

The number of ceasefire violations required to push in 1 militant was the highest in 2019/20.
Hence, Pak army risks losing (possibly) 1 soldier for every militant they sneak in. However, 10 of those militants only account for the death
of 1 security force personnel. The total number of Kashmiri civilians & policemen killed by militants is higher than the number of non Kashmiri
Army/CRPF/RR personnel, so even when Militants kill someone, its often green on green, which makes them unpopular (as does cross border
shelling) with Kashmiris.
It was a losing strategy for Pak Army and I think Gen. Bajwa saw it for what it was. Though it won't be admitted, they have in my opinion, given up on serious involvement in Kashmir.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Feb 2021 18:50

I don't think so, they may take pause of 3 months but will , stock up and hit us again. That's the nature of Pakistan since 1989. We are being naive with ceasefire agreements

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 25 Feb 2021 18:53

Maybe the inevitability of even half of the 90K troops being disengaged from Chinese border just pivoting towards Pok. India did not thin out any forces on Paki border to beat down the dragon - so whatever gets pivoted from LAC to LoC will be the anvil that will drive deep into PoK.
Also - for GOI - taking back PoK before next elections will ensure almost 2/3rd majority in 2024.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 25 Feb 2021 18:58

A question for all the gurus. In the far north, where the borders with Pakistan are equally hazy, can we not do to the Pakistanis what the Chinese were doing to us all these years? Grab parts of the land and keep pushing them back? Since we claim all of PoJK, can we incrementally take parts of PoJK and keep it?

Of course, if we have been doing all this without any fanfare, then we should keep doing so.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Feb 2021 19:02

Larry Walker wrote:Maybe the inevitability of even half of the 90K troops being disengaged from Chinese border just pivoting towards Pok. India did not thin out any forces on Paki border to beat down the dragon - so whatever gets pivoted from LAC to LoC will be the anvil that will drive deep into PoK.
Also - for GOI - taking back PoK before next elections will ensure almost 2/3rd majority in 2024.

Just normalising Kashmir and standing up to China is what the voter would like, as far as national security is concerned.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Feb 2021 19:08

Shanmukh wrote:A question for all the gurus. In the far north, where the borders with Pakistan are equally hazy, can we not do to the Pakistanis what the Chinese were doing to us all these years? Grab parts of the land and keep pushing them back? Since we claim all of PoJK, can we incrementally take parts of PoJK and keep it?

Of course, if we have been doing all this without any fanfare, then we should keep doing so.

Short answer - No. The border is much better demarcated even if the fence isn't there along some of the northern part of the LOC.

Pakistan's FCNA has 4 brigades well entrenched in the area, against our 8th MD in Dras, 2 brigades of the Gurez based 28th Inf Div and a brigade in Siachen. That, given the difficult terrain, is not enough superiority for us to do salami slicing, particularly, when we also have to guard against
infiltration.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 25 Feb 2021 20:33

Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 77376?s=20 ---> Indian Army working on an AI project to translate from Mandarin to English (& vice versa), confirms Army Chief. Will be useful for SIGINT stations along China frontier who can instantly translate intercepted PLA communications without having to pass them through translators.

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 47077?s=20 ---> Also has some applications in cryptography & cryptanalysis.

https://twitter.com/SandeepUnnithan/sta ... 11041?s=20 ---> “Working on AI-based software project for translating from Mandarin to English and vice-versa “ Gen MM Naravane. Calls it a challenging project because ‘Mandarin is a tonal language - this takes into account the body language as well’

https://twitter.com/hukum2082/status/13 ... 33263?s=20 ---> Commercial speech transcription software is available off the shelf. What the Indian Army seems to be looking at is a convergence of transcription + facial gesture recognition.

F**k Off + Middle Finger = Angry Han

F**k Off + Closed Eyes + Neck Drooping Left = Tired Han

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 25 Feb 2021 20:50

Aditya_V wrote:I don't think so, they may take pause of 3 months but will , stock up and hit us again. That's the nature of Pakistan since 1989. We are being naive with ceasefire agreements

Perversely, this is actually the preferred option for us, because if they came to their senses and established peace in the region then they will be able to concentrate their resources on improving their economy, which is the opposite of what we want. We are better off if they continue to feed the bottomless pit of their military, to the point of breaking their country.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2021 06:42

NRao wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:Except that the Kailash Range is now littered with landmines, listening devices, accelerometers to detect movement and likely crisscrossed with tunnels.

Tunnels likely to have been stocked with food, water and weapons caches.
Are all these confirmed news?

Kailash Range is within Indian LAC, there has never been any doubt about that - even from the PLA. So unless the landmines are on the other side of the LAC, there is really no use. Nikhil Gohkle addressed this issue - said that IF the PLA make a move IA can move faster. After all the PLA has to move from at least some 100 Kms out.

I feel India has won this round and needs to forget Pangong Tso, etc and capitalize in other areas: WHO (chairman), UNSC, etc. Checkmate China there and the LCA will be resolved for the time being - the bigger picture is the Indo-Tibetan border.

This Nehruvian globalist thinking guided by tyranny of not a blade of grass grows there. One lesson since 1962 is what ever is in Chinese possession gets fortified and possession solidified.

Meanwhile India gets international stature.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Feb 2021 12:09

Why cant we make admission of F-16 loss a pre condition in all these back channel talks- is Doval ji desperate for Paki peace?

It will be very appropriate for the 2nd anniversary of Swift retreat.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 26 Feb 2021 14:57

Need to also put pressure for closure on the 'Missing 54'.. and not have them become the forgotten 54.

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 26 Feb 2021 15:02

I don't know what is the requirement to sign another agreement? They keep supporting terrorism and attacking the government in place by equating them to Nazi and what not. And we keep giving them concessions. Most of the time, I fail to understand government policies.

It is a give and takes relationship, did they handover Neelam valley to us?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Feb 2021 16:28

Looks like US deep state pressure and we don't have enough where withwal to resist them, the change in Admin is affecting us adversely.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 26 Feb 2021 16:35

Aditya_V wrote:Looks like US deep state pressure and we don't have enough where withwal to resist them, the change in Admin is affecting us adversely.

Tell that to NRI jokers in US who were baying for Trump's blood and rooting for Biden. Truly a mentally blind bunch. Pakis were rooting for Biden too, but they are smart and back the right horse

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 26 Feb 2021 18:56

Ankit Desai wrote:India has 'strategies' in place to tackle Depsang after 'win-win situation' for both in Pangong Tso: Army chief

India has 'strategies’ in place to tackle the 'pending’ friction areas like Depsang in eastern Ladakh as well as other parts of the Line of Actual Control with China, said General MM Naravane on Wednesday, while describing the Pangong Tso disengagement as 'a very good end-result’ in 'a win-win situation’ for both sides.

“There is a trust deficit… We will be wary and cautious. We have something to negotiate with in future talks, but I would not like to talk about those strategies,” he said.
The quote which matters to me is below. I am sure establishment including IA are aware of it. I am glad IA Chief spelled out.

China is in the habit of making “small, creeping, incremental moves” to grab new territory without a shot being fired or loss of life, with each change by itself not being big enough to be contested.
-Ankit

AFAIK Chinese have said they will not pull out from Depsang because they have been in those locations since 2013 and were not properly challenged. Also this area in negotiations is singled out based on maps with a BIG/thick line running through which is difficult for anyone to interpret (hence PLA are taking advantage).

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 26 Feb 2021 19:38

sanjayc wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:Looks like US deep state pressure and we don't have enough where withwal to resist them, the change in Admin is affecting us adversely.
Tell that to NRI jokers in US who were baying for Trump's blood and rooting for Biden. Truly a mentally blind bunch. Pakis were rooting for Biden too, but they are smart and back the right horse

After phenomenally botching the Black Lives Matter movement and response to Covid, Trump became unelectable. After his support to the Capitol Hill rioters, he became toxic. It's better that NRIs supported Biden because those supporting Trump would look like idiots today. But yes in the next election I hope NRIs heavily back the Republican candidate, whoever it may be.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 26 Feb 2021 22:04

sanjayc wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:Looks like US deep state pressure and we don't have enough where withwal to resist them, the change in Admin is affecting us adversely.
Tell that to NRI jokers in US who were baying for Trump's blood and rooting for Biden. Truly a mentally blind bunch. Pakis were rooting for Biden too, but they are smart and back the right horse

You cant have a monkey to fight off China. Trump was a moneky, ready to lick the chinese - if they gave him stuff to show off domestically. Trump was not even building an alliance to contain China. He kept on appointing loyalists to defence positions with little experience. Nobody trusted trump - not even South East Asian nations - he was known to be transactional. Biden will give long term confidence that countries need to take on China.

Biden is bring together the US-EU axis to contain China. He will let the right talented ppl to man defence.
As an example - yesterday - Biden started an exercise on supply chain shifting - https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/2 ... ies-471304
This will target shift of sourcing away form China in 4 sectors. You'd never see trump doing this - because he was always interested in bombastic, loud useless actions that never delivered real results. Biden will be more discreet, yet effective.

If containing China is what we want - Biden is a better bet.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 26 Feb 2021 22:05

If NRIs would have looked like idiots supporting Trump, they should have sat the elections out. Why were they rooting for Biden? Is it a criminal offense not to vote?

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 26 Feb 2021 22:06

YashG wrote:
sanjayc wrote: If containing China is what we want - Biden is a better bet.

Tell that to US diplomats whose anal swabs are being taken at China airports.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 26 Feb 2021 22:25

sanjayc wrote:If NRIs would have looked like idiots supporting Trump, they should have sat the elections out. Why were they rooting for Biden? Is it a criminal offense not to vote?

What you're expressing is opinion not a logical leaning.

Let em tell you why it makes logical sense to lean democrat in America.

Democrats are usually richer - Biden voters account for 70% of the US GDP
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-aven ... ic-divide/

Educated people in America tend to vote democrats. This is known as diploma divide and this growing. Trump had the least number of college educated whites voting for him. The argument between republicans & democrats is simple - Intelligent people like democratic policies and vote them.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/20 ... ing-lines/

I'd always want NRIs to be counted among in the richer & educated pool of Americans.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 26 Feb 2021 22:29

Admin note: YashG, yensoy, sanjayc et al, do not derail threads with your unabashed love/hate and hope/despair for US politicians in this forum! Use your own personal profiles for all those, please.

If there is any India-relevant news or fact that came out about these critters, then please post in appropriate thread with your dispassionate analysis

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 26 Feb 2021 22:32

hnair wrote:Admin note: YashG, yensoy, sanjayc et al, do not derail threads with your unabashed love/hate and hope/despair for US politicians in this forum! Use your own personal profiles for all those, please.

If there is any India-relevant news or fact that came out about these critters, then please post in appropriate thread with your dispassionate analysis

Fair enough !

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 26 Feb 2021 23:05

sanjayc wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:Looks like US deep state pressure and we don't have enough where withwal to resist them, the change in Admin is affecting us adversely.
Tell that to NRI jokers in US who were baying for Trump's blood and rooting for Biden. Truly a mentally blind bunch. Pakis were rooting for Biden too, but they are smart and back the right horse

And what makes you think that the NRI Jokers who supported Biden are not OK with the continued Paki perfidy against India?

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 26 Feb 2021 23:09

India’s firmness, Xi Jinping’s political goals, explain China’s withdrawal in Ladakh.

Another shock for Beijing has been that the Indian Army has been deputed, through the Commander of the Leh-based 14 Corps, to conduct the negotiations. This is a first in post-Independence India. For most foreign service officers, negotiation is the art of compromise. A soldier knows far better than a diplomat how a few hundred meters in a mountainous area can be vital.

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 27 Feb 2021 01:48

My point of view of the situation with Terroistan is following:

There is no doubt in my mind that it was done under massa pressure (the wording used to accommodate porki outstanding issues in the joint declaration is dead give away).

There was no way India would have agreed to this crap given our situation viz- a viz porkies at the moment and near future. If you read the signals POTUS called PM Modi only after announcement of restoring of 4G services in cashmere, Porkies got baksheesh released via IMF and now this so there is nothing new in this or too much to read.

Indian establishment has gone this route, earlier too with Ganja to show we are the good guys happy to talk piss but its porkies who spoil the game. Come campaign season of summer in the valley and see what happens. This is calm before the storm , India will play along and let porkies make their move. There should not be any love lost or too much to read in this piss agreement. LOC breather is welcome however it is porkies who should be roasted everyday for supporting terrorists against India. Let everything continue.

You may even see some vaccines sent to them and Kulbhushan Jadav released but that just ends there. Now is the time to keep powder dry and creating capabilities that will hit porkies when they make move in coming summer.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 27 Feb 2021 02:50

Idea to occupy Pangong Tso south bank heights: Inside details of how India's plan changed game along LAC

:
:
According to an ANI report citing sources, the idea 'to occupy heights to gain an edge over the Chinese' troops emerged during a meeting chaired by National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval and attended by military commanders that included Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Bipin Rawat, and Army Chief General MM Naravane besides others.

The advice given by our NSA also came in extremely handy: Army Chief Naravane

you would think the army would know and plan for all possible contengencies

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 27 Feb 2021 03:38

krishna_krishna wrote:My point of view of the situation with Terroistan is following:

There is no doubt in my mind that it was done under massa pressure (the wording used to accommodate porki outstanding issues in the joint declaration is dead give away).

There was no way India would have agreed to this crap given our situation viz- a viz porkies at the moment and near future. If you read the signals POTUS called PM Modi only after announcement of restoring of 4G services in cashmere, Porkies got baksheesh released via IMF and now this so there is nothing new in this or too much to read.

Indian establishment has gone this route, earlier too with Ganja to show we are the good guys happy to talk piss but its porkies who spoil the game. Come campaign season of summer in the valley and see what happens. This is calm before the storm , India will play along and let porkies make their move. There should not be any love lost or too much to read in this piss agreement. LOC breather is welcome however it is porkies who should be roasted everyday for supporting terrorists against India. Let everything continue.

You may even see some vaccines sent to them and Kulbhushan Jadav released but that just ends there. Now is the time to keep powder dry and creating capabilities that will hit porkies when they make move in coming summer.

I fail to see what we gain by this agreement. as part of the agreement, both sides will pull back their offensive units. for us this means SF Units (pakis finally admitting surgical strikes) and maybe some artillery. for pakis does this mean they will stop sending their infiltrators? i dont see how this helps us

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 27 Feb 2021 05:05

Atmavik wrote:
krishna_krishna wrote:My point of view of the situation with Terroistan is following:

I fail to see what we gain by this agreement. as part of the agreement, both sides will pull back their offensive units. for us this means SF Units (pakis finally admitting surgical strikes) and maybe some artillery. for pakis does this mean they will stop sending their infiltrators? i dont see how this helps us

We gain nothing just optics, we also know it so do porkies. Biden has upped the ante expect more of such crap, but I am confident GOI will do what's best in our interest. Rest is chai biskoot , more the merrier.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 27 Feb 2021 05:24

krishna_krishna, I had warned users against dragging in US or its leaders into these discussions without adequate reasons.

So please take this irrational faith in Biden as a supreme being with relevance to Indian decision making elsewhere! What India and its government does is hardly dependent on US and its leaders. India never bothered with what US thought, when it comes to dealing pakis.

Warning issued.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 27 Feb 2021 15:29

krishna_krishna wrote:My point of view of the situation with Terroistan is following:

There is no doubt in my mind that it was done under massa pressure (the wording used to accommodate porki outstanding issues in the joint declaration is dead give away).

There was no way India would have agreed to this crap given our situation viz- a viz porkies at the moment and near future. If you read the signals POTUS called PM Modi only after announcement of restoring of 4G services in cashmere, Porkies got baksheesh released via IMF and now this so there is nothing new in this or too much to read.

Indian establishment has gone this route, earlier too with Ganja to show we are the good guys happy to talk piss but its porkies who spoil the game. Come campaign season of summer in the valley and see what happens. This is calm before the storm , India will play along and let porkies make their move. There should not be any love lost or too much to read in this piss agreement. LOC breather is welcome however it is porkies who should be roasted everyday for supporting terrorists against India. Let everything continue.

You may even see some vaccines sent to them and Kulbhushan Jadav released but that just ends there. Now is the time to keep powder dry and creating capabilities that will hit porkies when they make move in coming summer.

@hnair there is a more relevant thread on international diplomacy - how can we take this post the and continue the discussion thr. Krishna made some interesting points and instead of bringing them up here - I'd like to to this in relevant forum.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 27 Feb 2021 18:13

I believe we are missing a couple of points in understanding why the ceasefire happened.

If Pak detected the slightest weakness in our position, (against them or China) they would not have agreed to a ceasefire. They have done so
despite what must have been a lot of Chinese pressure to keep the LOC active. Its because we have imposed an unacceptable cost on them to have an active LOC.

Its easy for us armchair critics to suggest that we need an active LOC, while simultaneously occupying the Kailash range heights etc.
Its a lot easier for the army to secure the LOC against infiltration - its main task, when there is a higher probability that they will not be shot at
by Pak army and (conversely) when infiltrators don't have covering fire. I believe one quiet summer in Kashmir, will be enough to change the
character of the valley for good.

In the Kailash range too, unless we want to budget for another Siachen (against an opponent who can afford the cost) it made sense to restore the status quo (which was what we wanted all along). China acted against what it perceived to be a weak India. If they did not win this time, there is a lesser chance they will do so after we further reduce the infrastructure gap with China, fill gaps in our hardware procurement and start recognise China as our main adversary.

nam · Post by **nam** » 27 Feb 2021 18:23

No issue in holding fire, as long as it doesn't go in to more puppi jhapa, IPL, bhai chara with Pak and back to importing from the Chinese.

We can talk peace, as long as as both Pak & Chini are not making anything out of us.

Once the Chini go back, if Pak try to infiltrate, we should pound the day lights out of PA's LC units. I guess Pak was worried, this would happen, as Chinis were disengaging.

mody · Post by **mody** » 27 Feb 2021 19:16

For us, if the pakis stop the infiltration for the next few months, it willhelp us stabilize the situation in Kashmir and after carrying out the delimitation, hold the elections in J&K.
Already the number of active terrorists operating in J&K has come down drastically and without new recruits joining the ranks for a few months, the scale will tip even more in the favour of the security forces.
If the situation stabilizes, then the economy can also start to improve and the government largess will show better results on the ground. Govt can claim that scrapping 370 was the perfect move to restore normalcy to J&K.

Offcourse the pakis will only be bidding time and will go back to their usual antics, when they get the chance.

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 27 Feb 2021 22:50

hnair wrote:
So please take this irrational faith in Biden as a supreme being with relevance to Indian decision making elsewhere! What India and its government does is hardly dependent on US and its leaders. India never bothered with what US thought, when it comes to dealing pakis.

Warning issued.

Sir with all due respect, I would not even be the last person to have such a faith in Biden being a supplement being. I am of the opinion that massa is a receding power but still relevant. The reason I made that reference is that it is my opinion on why ceasefire was announced on almost eve of Balakot strikes by India and proxies being released IMF funds. I see no other reason why at this stage with two fronts going on with Chinese that porkies would agree to this , neither will India when it has upper hand on both the fronts. So people may/can absolutely disagree with that opinion.

Regarding your comments about India never bothered about US and its leaders, history is littered with such examples including present GOI, do read Gen. Paddy's book and statements about op parakram on how the very Rafale jets we claim as our Crown Jewels of IAF (best fighter in the fleet now) ,the very same fighter was used in conjunction with massa and enforced a no fly zone around loc and intimidation patrols. Where massa jets from their aircraft carriers and Rafale's from Charles de Gaulle were intimidating India's hand. India was off course weaker than today but nonetheless so this forum is aware of of such instances. There are also instance were Indian leaders have shown middle finger.

My only point is discussing and analyzing facts since they are relevant to the border security with china and Pakistan. I would appreciate to hear from you your thoughts on why this happened with a Joint statement with porkies at this juncture if you would be kind enough to post your opinion here or some other threads.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Feb 2021 23:17

Still not a good idea to discuss US politics in this thread.

BTW Pak releasing the video of Abhinandan shows some resistance to the ceasefire in the Pak military.

For all, we know they will be like that scorpion and the duck and break the agreement.

YashG, Please use the strat forum where there are a couple of threads.

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 27 Feb 2021 23:27

ramana wrote:Still not a good idea to discuss US politics in this thread.

BTW Pak releasing the video of Abhinandan shows some resistance to the ceasefire in the Pak military.

For all, we know they will be like that scorpion and the duck and break the agreement.

+200 to both the points, I can estimate the timing when this would occur , summer when there is campaign season in cashmere when tango's and porki army have high BP.

I also believe porkies wants to behave as nice kids temporarily since Afghanistan is also under evaluation where final call of recalling those 2K troops that are leftover today. Porkies really want their western front to be secure and want massa out of there and they can sense the finish line.