India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 08 Jan 2021 22:00

vnadendla wrote:
manjgu wrote:
well ... even our logistics lines / nodes ( Leh being close to border as well) are very tenous albeit shorter. we have connectivity to mainland india ( 1000 tp 1500 km away) through limited (2) now (3) lines.. thru mountainous terrain/high passes. most of our men are entrenched in flat grounds and relatively few in the mountains.
Could be closer if have have bases in Himachal. The lines can be increased with time. More tunnels and roads. China mainland cannot come closer in the cold desert.

the number of lines remain constant ...1) zozila ..kargil , 2) manali ..3 passes, 3) manali shinku la ....3 lines. right now none of them is open 365 but with tunnels on zozila ,,shinku la can be year round but not anytime soon. HImachal does not produce anything worthwhile .,,everything comes from the plains...punjab...UP...beyond. true that the air distance between ladhak and plains is not too much.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Jan 2021 02:18

Please read this. The original Chinese 33-page assessment is behind paywall.

https://www.vifindia.org/article/2021/j ... iews-india

venkat_kv · Post by **venkat_kv** » 09 Jan 2021 05:18

ramana wrote:Actually, NaMo is using Chanakaya tactics to make China choose.
They can withdraw or fight. Right now winter doesn't allow either.
Hence my timeline from April to June for the choice.
To withdraw will be a loss of face.
To fight will also lead to real losses.
Like Ajit says
"Isko Liquid Oxygen de de!
Liquid maar dega aur Oxygen marne nahin dega!"

Ramana Sir,
the chinese have one more option. they can keep squatting on the land as they are doing now. I am not sure if Indian Govt. gave a dealine to vacate, but we are not known to initiate hostilities. So i am not sure a war will come untill the chinese initiate it and they seem to keep creeping little by little without any of the actual fighting.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 09 Jan 2021 07:02

^^^^
CCP/PLA have made a diplomatic, economic and military miscalculation. The longer this goes on, the worse it is for them:
- It shows that they cannot bend India to their will i.e. their aspirations to be #1 in Asia is just gas
- India’s military posture grows stronger by the day i.e. they will worry about walking into a trap, starting something, and getting thrashed
- India is actively decoupling from the PRC economy, without something like this confrontation, this would never have happened
- India and other Asian and global powers are now actively forming military and diplomatic alliances to contain this menace
- They are now relying on Pakistan to divert Indian attention, highlighting their nervousness, and showing how little they understand Pakistan (that cheque always bounces)

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 Jan 2021 07:24

ramana wrote:Please read this. The original Chinese 33-page assessment is behind paywall.

https://www.vifindia.org/article/2021/j ... iews-india

Available here for English version's download.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 09 Jan 2021 10:54

Eklavya saar, China just signed an economic pact with EU and RCEP. Nobody is standing up to them and with USA in decline this will accelerate. It’s a bit presumptuous of us to think of China as weak.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 09 Jan 2021 13:19

Vimal ji, India has always given due consideration to China’s undoubted strengths. The question is if China’s leader is using these strengths to the best advantage of his country, or creating unnecessary trouble for his country. Ravan was also very strong.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 09 Jan 2021 13:58

There was a rumour about IA capturing 5 PLA persons in Gurung hills..and letting them off couple of days before. Babas tweet..

No news in the media though..for now

Neilz · Post by **Neilz** » 09 Jan 2021 14:11

RajaRudra wrote:There was a rumour about IA capturing 5 PLA persons in Gurung hills..and letting them off couple of days before. Babas tweet..

No news in the media though..for now

Saurav Jha confirmed it

Alright, sources say that five Chinese PLA Ground Force troops were captured in the Gurung Hill area of the Kailash Range by the Indian Army, day before yesterday. They have since been returned as a goodwill gesture subsequent to a Border Personnel Meeting.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1347808799692767232

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 09 Jan 2021 15:42

Neilz wrote:
RajaRudra wrote:There was a rumour about IA capturing 5 PLA persons in Gurung hills..and letting them off couple of days before. Babas tweet..

No news in the media though..for now
Saurav Jha confirmed it

Alright, sources say that five Chinese PLA Ground Force troops were captured in the Gurung Hill area of the Kailash Range by the Indian Army, day before yesterday. They have since been returned as a goodwill gesture subsequent to a Border Personnel Meeting.
https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1347808799692767232

And timesofindia say's one apprehended on Friday Gurung Hill area!

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 09 Jan 2021 18:00

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/chin ... 210109.htm

Chinese soldier captured in eastern Ladakh

Sonugn · Post by **Sonugn** » 09 Jan 2021 18:52

vijayk wrote:https://www.rediff.com/news/report/chin ... 210109.htm

Chinese soldier captured in eastern Ladakh

Looks like a lot of Yaks are crossing over, "inadvertently" & poor CCP soldier needs to retrieve the same.

Hope our Veers fed the Yak.

vnadendla · Post by **vnadendla** » 09 Jan 2021 21:37

manjgu wrote:
vnadendla wrote: Could be closer if have have bases in Himachal. The lines can be increased with time. More tunnels and roads. China mainland cannot come closer in the cold desert.
the number of lines remain constant ...1) zozila ..kargil , 2) manali ..3 passes, 3) manali shinku la ....3 lines. right now none of them is open 365 but with tunnels on zozila ,,shinku la can be year round but not anytime soon. HImachal does not produce anything worthwhile .,,everything comes from the plains...punjab...UP...beyond. true that the air distance between ladhak and plains is not too much.

Are you telling me alternative routes cannot be built

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 09 Jan 2021 23:15

manjgu wrote:
vnadendla wrote: Could be closer if have have bases in Himachal. The lines can be increased with time. More tunnels and roads. China mainland cannot come closer in the cold desert.
the number of lines remain constant ...1) zozila ..kargil , 2) manali ..3 passes, 3) manali shinku la ....3 lines. right now none of them is open 365 but with tunnels on zozila ,,shinku la can be year round but not anytime soon. HImachal does not produce anything worthwhile .,,everything comes from the plains...punjab...UP...beyond. true that the air distance between ladhak and plains is not too much.

HP produces plenty of worthwhile stuff, but there is no need for everything to the produced in HP. The point is that logistics and bases can easily be hosted out of HP with proper augmentation in infrastructure. There is plenty of scope for development and ample land and water resources in HP.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 10 Jan 2021 01:21

Written in Nov 2020

shyamd wrote: ---------------------------------------
The other interesting thing is GOI, Paris and Aussies are creating a new framework for Indian Ocean separate to the Quad (US/Aus/Ind/Jap) grouping. All three have agreed to join hands. Paris is promising ISR, Rafale, Submarines + cash support. Aussies have bought french subs. Shringla visit to capital said GOI is worried Gwadar and Hambantota can quickly be converted into a naval facility in the future.

Link

While India and France discussed China and its role in the Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean, Paris has invited Indian Navy to participate in European Maritime Awareness in the Straits of Hormuz (EMSOH) as well as use facilities at the French base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa. On China, the two sides have decided to build maritime capabilities to ensure that international maritime law is followed in both Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean through joint surveillance and sharing of intelligence. France’s Chief Military Advisor also accompanied envoy Bonne. France has also offered India to join in trilateral naval exercises with UAE, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia.

---------------------------------
GOI is conducting strategic communications that If there is no forward movement on withdrawal once the snow melts there will be escalation.

- A5 brandished at full operational mode in multiple locations (Vajpayee model)
- Movement of troops forward - Army plans to keep 2 strike corps for mountains facing China amid Ladakh crisis
- Guided artillery and other equipment
- Friendly countries have promised to provide additional transport and A2A refuelling as well as logistic equipment (example given in above article of UAE/France there are others too in the region)
- GOI greenlight will be given at very short notice to undertake an offensive operation.
And Much more.

COAS visit to forward areas was to communicate this directly with key individuals in IA.

Notice to effect will be very short but will but within boundaries of international law.

nam · Post by **nam** » 10 Jan 2021 01:46

The French are probably worried about their Pacific islands.

I don't see things getting in to kinetic mode. Even if there is war, it will just result in similar deployments all year long. Just the positional line may differ.

Neither side will accept defeat, nor can take the risk of disengaging in winter, least the other side move in. Both sides can fight a long war. So both sides will stay where they are unless there is a deal on going back to April position.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 10 Jan 2021 02:47

shyamd, what would be Indian objectives for an offensive? Would the Chinese not retaliate heavily?

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 10 Jan 2021 03:09

Is the Agni V deployment linked to this development? Does it provide a deterrent under which conventional hostilities could take place?

kit · Post by **kit** » 10 Jan 2021 03:20

shyamd wrote:Written in Nov 2020
shyamd wrote: ---------------------------------------
The other interesting thing is GOI, Paris and Aussies are creating a new framework for Indian Ocean separate to the Quad (US/Aus/Ind/Jap) grouping. All three have agreed to join hands. Paris is promising ISR, Rafale, Submarines + cash support. Aussies have bought french subs. Shringla visit to capital said GOI is worried Gwadar and Hambantota can quickly be converted into a naval facility in the future.

please elaborate on "cash support ?"

nam · Post by **nam** » 10 Jan 2021 04:08

We push the Chinese back to F8, then what? Why not beyond F8? Are we then accepting F8 as the border? If not then we have to go all the way to AC. Would the Chinese accept such a large loss? No.

Suppose we go only to F8. Are we going to maintain troops on F8 during the winter after the offensive? If yes, what did we gain? If not, how will we make sure the PLA doesn't take over F8 again?

It is 3400KM long border. Both sides know you cannot convince the other side to disengage (like 62) with a military defeat. We have got the Chinis exactly where we want. Fear of a counter salami from us, has forced PLA to deploy in strength.

The only other choice they have is try out war, in the hope that we accept a 62 type defeat.. which we won't.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Jan 2021 07:23

SSridhar wrote:
ramana wrote:Please read this. The original Chinese 33-page assessment is behind paywall.

https://www.vifindia.org/article/2021/j ... iews-india
Available here for English version's download.

Thank you. Will be analyzed for themes.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Jan 2021 07:29

venkat_kv wrote:
ramana wrote:Actually, NaMo is using Chanakaya tactics to make China choose.
They can withdraw or fight. Right now winter doesn't allow either.
Hence my timeline from April to June for the choice.
To withdraw will be a loss of face.
To fight will also lead to real losses.
Like Ajit says
"Isko Liquid Oxygen de de!
Liquid maar dega aur Oxygen marne nahin dega!"
Ramana Sir,
the chinese have one more option. they can keep squatting on the land as they are doing now. I am not sure if Indian Govt. gave a dealine to vacate, but we are not known to initiate hostilities. So i am not sure a war will come untill the chinese initiate it and they seem to keep creeping little by little without any of the actual fighting.

Good thinking. It assumes Chinese have higher capacity for deployment in harsh climate.

Per China watchers, PLA has suffered quite a few cold weather related casualties than our troops.
The redirection of 1st Corps towards Ladakh plugs the gaps.

So I my humble opinion this option is not palusible.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Jan 2021 07:33

eklavya wrote:^^^^
CCP/PLA have made a diplomatic, economic and military miscalculation. The longer this goes on, the worse it is for them:
- It shows that they cannot bend India to their will i.e. their aspirations to be #1 in Asia is just gas
- India’s military posture grows stronger by the day i.e. they will worry about walking into a trap, starting something, and getting thrashed
- India is actively decoupling from the PRC economy, without something like this confrontation, this would never have happened
- India and other Asian and global powers are now actively forming military and diplomatic alliances to contain this menace
- They are now relying on Pakistan to divert Indian attention, highlighting their nervousness, and showing how little they understand Pakistan (that cheque always bounces)

This is the multidimensional confrontation that GOI is fighting and its only a few rungs have been climbed.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Jan 2021 07:38

Vivek K wrote:Is the Agni V deployment linked to this development? Does it provide a deterrent under which conventional hostilities could take place?

No. It just reminds pistol mere paas being hain.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 10 Jan 2021 10:43

csharma wrote:shyamd, what would be Indian objectives for an offensive? Would the Chinese not retaliate heavily?

Can’t go into technical aspects about how it will be done but common sense is that the focus will be what is defendable in terms of border alignment.

The minimum objective will damage PRC/PLA and shake Xi’s seat.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 10 Jan 2021 10:44

kit wrote:
shyamd wrote:Written in Nov 2020
please elaborate on "cash support ?"

Low interest finance for that equipment... grants/subsidies etc

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 10 Jan 2021 12:44

shyamd, Thanks. The Jayadev Ranade article which summarises what Chinese scholars are writing, says that the they expect India to occupy mountain passes or something like that.

So, it is quite possible that they are aware of possible next steps. They may not know the details obviously.

kit · Post by **kit** » 10 Jan 2021 16:02

shyamd wrote:
kit wrote: please elaborate on "cash support ?"
Low interest finance for that equipment... grants/subsidies etc

Would be interesting if that happens., I don't think any country other than the erstwhile USSR supplied weapons and equipment to India on soft terms . The US certainly could pass a bill to rush supplies etc but every American largesse comes with a *lot of strings*

kit · Post by **kit** » 10 Jan 2021 16:04

ramana wrote:
Vivek K wrote:Is the Agni V deployment linked to this development? Does it provide a deterrent under which conventional hostilities could take place?
No. It just reminds pistol mere paas being hain.

Vajpayee did something similar., the armed and deployed MIRVed Agni 5 in a ready to fire from a multitude of locations is not a pretty sight for the Chinese

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Jan 2021 23:24

Twitter

https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1348649058068385793

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Jan 2021 01:00

Lt. Gen Hasnain writes:
https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinio ... 48353.html

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 12 Jan 2021 09:53

kit wrote:
ramana wrote: No. It just reminds pistol mere paas being hain.
Vajpayee did something similar., the armed and deployed MIRVed Agni 5 in a ready to fire from a multitude of locations is not a pretty sight for the Chinese

Haay re haay! Bhat Agini Phiew are ju talking about saar? Koi pichar wichar toh dilao - cannister/MiRV and and all. What did I miss?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 12 Jan 2021 09:58

vijayk wrote:Twitter

https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1348649058068385793

Dont believe it unless confirmed by the MOD. Remember a few months ago the Indian media reported that both sides have decided to deescalate only for the report to be denied by the PRC.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 Jan 2021 13:20

Well,the Chins are being smart.Why freeze their reserves unneccesarily? They well know that the IA do no want a war at the
current time,both weather ,eco situ and internal problems( J&K, farmers,etc.) ,plus our decades long policy of maintaining a defensive posture until attacked. The 10K troops can just as easily be brought back given their fine infra. The Q is whether we too should rest some our rear forces ,or rotate forces in the light of the PLA withdrawal. It might be a good idea.

nam · Post by **nam** » 12 Jan 2021 20:43

News report om smcp that pla has moved 10k troops and done in day light so that we can see. They have left their kit, because they could nt complete their test.

Chinia are trying a stunt to force us to replicate it. We cannot easily get our troops back because our areas r snowed.

They can easily come back and their kit has not left.

Trying to fool us.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 13 Jan 2021 00:43

nam wrote:News report om smcp that pla has moved 10k troops and done in day light so that we can see. They have left their kit, because they could nt complete their test.

Chinia are trying a stunt to force us to replicate it. We cannot easily get our troops back because our areas r snowed.

They can easily come back and their kit has not left.

Trying to fool us.

Snow blockage means we can't easily resupply, replace or replenish our troops either. IA would assess the truth of the claim and will also move back cautiously if it makes sense.

I don't think either side will pull back front line troops facing each other now. Could be some partial pull back of fwd deployed Chinese troops which are still away from LAC, or injured/exhausted troops who are useless and drain logistics.

Najunamar · Post by **Najunamar** » 13 Jan 2021 01:18

nam wrote:News report om smcp that pla has moved 10k troops and done in day light so that we can see. They have left their kit, because they could nt complete their test.

Chinia are trying a stunt to force us to replicate it. We cannot easily get our troops back because our areas r snowed.

They can easily come back and their kit has not left.

Trying to fool us.

What's the objective of this "test"? There hasn't been any major change in either parties' stance or regime, then makes one wonder if they actually bit off more than they could chew?

kit · Post by **kit** » 13 Jan 2021 01:27

Najunamar wrote:
nam wrote:
They can easily come back and their kit has not left. Trying to fool us.
What's the objective of this "test"? There hasn't been any major change in either parties' stance or regime, then makes one wonder if they actually bit off more than they could chew?

Smoke and mirrors., i think its not just that they can redeploy , these acclimatized soldiers would be deployed to a new front while new ones would come to the same region at a later time of their own choice.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Jan 2021 01:43

nam wrote:News report om smcp that pla has moved 10k troops and done in day light so that we can see. They have left their kit, because they couldnt complete their test.

China are trying a stunt to force us to replicate it. We cannot easily get our troops back because our areas r snowed.

They can easily come back and their kit has not left.

Trying to fool us.

Philip, What do you make of this?
Am asking as you are old timer.

Folks please wait for his response. TIA

nam · Post by **nam** » 13 Jan 2021 01:56

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/militar ... ource-says

A Beijing-based military source said the weapons were only there temporarily for training and tests because the People’s Liberation Army failed to complete drill targets last year.
“Almost all the PLA’s new advanced weapons, including new generation aircraft like the J-20 fighter jets, Z-20 helicopters and drones, as well as tanks and others, need to be sent to high altitudes for tests,” the source said