India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

The Military Issues & History Forum is a venue to discuss issues relating to the military aspects of the Indian Armed Forces, whether the past, present or future. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Post Reply
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramana »

SSridhar, Do look up the politics of Entente Cordiale and see if you can come up with something analogus.
YashG
BRFite
Posts: 939
Joined: 22 Apr 2017 00:10

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by YashG »

The rumors of the death of american influence are grossly exaggerated. The intangible influence that America has built is a result of over 70 years. Maybe China can do it in half the time starting in 2020 as one of the worlds top 3 most hated major countries.

One way to look at signs of waning American influence can be to see
#1 when pakistani generals who can afford to send thr children to american universities, start sending them to mainland Chinese universities as a matter of preference not compulsion
#2 We start using a map app from a chinese company instead of google or apple maps
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7101
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shyamd »

Assessment of Security Situation post Kabul takeover


TSPA priority
- TSPA support Taleban priority firstly will be to consolidate, secure and prevent any forces that can launch a counter coup. Apparently Kabul is not completely secure and the Taleban are still continuing operations.
- Negotiations are taking place between Taleban and forces that are capable of resisting thus the general amnesty for former Afghan govt officials (to complete the coup which means the Taleban/TSPA are still worried about resistance forces)
- The other issues is that TSPA know that there are a lot of groups that are not under direct C2 of TSPA - these will need to be dealt with as well eventually

- Consensus for major powers is that as long as Taleban is truly 'inclusive' then pressure will be taken off Taleban - I believe funds of the Afghan govt have been frozen or about to be frozen
- ISI backed troops such as LeT and JeM are playing a significant role. They have two roles - keep control of Taleban gangs going lose/off the chain and prevent forces that can launch a counter coup.

GOI moves
- First priority is securing all Indian nationals, diplomats and other interests of the Sikh/Hindu community. Majority of the work was completed in 48 hours from the green light given by GOI leaders.
- The next will be to re-establish connections with key players (some of whom are in Delhi) and others in central asian states.
- GOI have a choice. Either support those ready to launch a counter coup and make the point that Taleban hold is weak/vulnerable or move to a long term strategy which is to be recon/surveillance/intel focused.

With only around 9% of indian population vaccinated GOI's primary focus is to get this fixed.
Vips
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4699
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Vips »

YashG wrote:
One way to look at signs of waning American influence can be to see
#1 when pakistani generals who can afford to send thr children to american universities, start sending them to mainland Chinese universities as a matter of preference not compulsion
People who go the US Universities do so to ultimately to settle there. US society offers an open environment with opportunities galore. Not to mention the other things that are attributed to "soft power". Compare that to the communist controlled and totalitarian regime. Now who would want to live and settle there? :lol:
ramdas
BRFite
Posts: 585
Joined: 21 Mar 2006 02:18

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramdas »

And these have to be missiles that have survived a first strike. So the total looks like 80 Agni 5s and 160 warheads of 200 kt. If this number has to definitely survive a first strike, gross it up by whatever your estimate is of the casualties on account of the first strike e.g. at a 50% rate, you need 160 Agni 5s and 320 warheads.
This is a very reasonable estimate vis a vis China. Assuming of course, that we have MIRVed A5's with 4-5 200 kt warheads on each. So MIRVed A5's need to be tested urgently, and confidence in a 200 kt miniaturized warhead needs to be ensured one way or the other. Hope this is done with urgency. The numbers increase if the large Chinese force is capable of destroying more than 50% (or if the Chinese deploy an ABM system, which they will sooner or later). In addition, given its lunatic jihadist nature, a good 50 200 kt warheads must be able to reach Pak in a 2 front situation. That calls for 100 or so A1/A1P's. The option of inducting tactical nukes to offset conventional disadvantage vis a vis PLA/PLA-Pak combine must also be considered seriously.
k prasad
BRFite
Posts: 962
Joined: 21 Oct 2007 17:38
Location: Somewhere over the Rainbow
Contact:

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by k prasad »

Do we have a specific thread for Afghanistan updates?

I've been following the OSINT updates, and there seems to be a restart of the Great Game happening again, with the re-forming of the Northern Alliance, Dostum, etc. I don't doubt that Indian intelligence is playing a role, if not a major one!
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18274
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Rakesh »

k prasad, please go here --->

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7203&start=1760
k prasad
BRFite
Posts: 962
Joined: 21 Oct 2007 17:38
Location: Somewhere over the Rainbow
Contact:

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by k prasad »

Thanks Rakesh-saar! I forget that BRF has 3 subforums, and usually only stick to the Mil one
SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 25087
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:SSridhar, Do look up the politics of Entente Cordiale and see if you can come up with something analogus.
Ramana, thanks. Will do so. Good pointer.
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7101
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shyamd »

Gissar Military Aerodrome — India’s first overseas base that came to the rescue in Afghan crisis
However, it was only under the Narendra Modi government that India undertook the first international deployment of fighters — Su 30MKI — to the DMA on a temporary basis, sources said.
The GMA is often confused with another Farkhor base. Farkhor in southern Tajikistan — near the border with northern Afghanistan — is a city where India ran a hospital in the 1990s.

It is at the same hospital that the powerful Afghan Tajik guerrilla leader, the late Ahmed Shah Masood of the Northern Alliance — which fought the Soviets and later the Taliban — was brought in for treatment after a suicide bomber blew himself up near him in 2001. However, the military doctors at the hospital could not save him despite all efforts.


Following the 9/11 strikes, the hospital ceased operations, sources said. India runs a still functional 50-bed hospital for Tajik military personnel at Qurgan Teppa in southern Tajikistan.
With Tajikistan just about 20 km from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir across the corridor, having the ability to operate from Tajikistan gives a lot of options to military planners.

IAF fighters can target Peshawar from Tajikistan, which puts additional pressure on the resources of Pakistan, sources said.

At a time of war, this means that Pakistan will have to move its assets from its Eastern borders to the Western which weakens its direct front with India.

Another big advantage of having a foothold in Tajikistan is that it opens up different routes into Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan.

However, some within the defence and security establishment, argue that India has never been able to fully utilise the DMA or the investments made. Other such joint collaborative efforts with other countries, too, have not fully taken off over the years, they said.
Mostly recon ops and then quite often Russia would veto IAF presence.
ldev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2616
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ldev »

shyamd wrote:Gissar Military Aerodrome — India’s first overseas base that came to the rescue in Afghan crisis


Mostly recon ops and then quite often Russia would veto IAF presence.
Yes, that's what I had also understood, Russia still regards the STAN countries as it's sphere of influence and the IAF was not totally welcome in Tajikstan inspite of the investments made to re-develop and refurbish that airfield. With the change of regime in Kabul and the current posture of both Iran and Russia towards it, I think that Tajik base prospects have become even more dim. Access to it for Indian military aircraft is dependent on Iran allowing overflights and basing is contingent on Russia.
Maria
BRFite
Posts: 213
Joined: 15 Aug 2020 13:50

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Maria »

ldev wrote:
shyamd wrote:Gissar Military Aerodrome — India’s first overseas base that came to the rescue in Afghan crisis


Mostly recon ops and then quite often Russia would veto IAF presence.
Yes, that's what I had also understood, Russia still regards the STAN countries as it's sphere of influence and the IAF was not totally welcome in Tajikstan inspite of the investments made to re-develop and refurbish that airfield. With the change of regime in Kabul and the current posture of both Iran and Russia towards it, I think that Tajik base prospects have become even more dim. Access to it for Indian military aircraft is dependent on Iran allowing overflights and basing is contingent on Russia.
I think Russia is aware of the acute threat although they are running with the bunnies and hunting with the hounds:

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-re ... 021-08-23/
Y I Patel
BRFite
Posts: 781
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Y I Patel »

Excellent article by Praveen Swamy on the state of play in the negotiations over the standoff in Eastern Ladakh. Some valuable nuggets include:

* 4 and 6 Divs are now deployed in Eastern Ladakh along with two infantry divs from 1 Corps. 34 Armd Div part of 1 Corps remains in the plains according to Swamy.

* Negotiations involved creation of buffer zones aka no patrolling zones. This is a new development and may indicate a willingness to arrive at a pragmatic compromise. Previous no patrol zone between Fingers 3 and 8 in Pangong, new one after recent Gogra area disengagement north of Kugrang Nalla - may involve IA agreeing not to patrol up to points 15 and 17 A.

Disengagement in Ladakh trades territorial claims for time to meet bigger strategic challenges ahead: Praveen Swamy in FirstPost

Patrol Points 15 to 17A
Image

Patrol Points in Depsang Plains
Image

And important posts around Pangon Tso
Image
shaun
BRFite
Posts: 1385
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shaun »

I fail to understand some of the basics. In case of pangong lake , we have claimed line till finger 8 , Chinese till 3 , they have a all weather road till finger 4. Any trangression from our part crossing finger 3 to finger 4 , sees prompt response from PLA as they can intercept our patrol easily covering with their vehicles and also because they observation post at srijap camp . We some time sneaked through, crossing heights aligned to roads as per some anecdotal evidence . I guess we can gauge the ground reality correctly if we can compare the number of transgressions taken by both side upto their perceived area.

PS : Situation before the border negotitaion
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5481
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Cyrano »

How can there be a compromise between Indias Line of Actual Control claims (and NOT India's claimed BORDER limit) and China's BORDER claims (and not China's LAC claim)?

IF any such compromise is reached, India would be forever giving up ins claims on the entire Aksai-Hind territory which is several tens of thousands of sq kms.

For India's claimed BORDER limit: its the thick ------ line based on the Jhonson line of 1865. See below:

Image

For securing "PATROLLING RIGHTS" over a few 10s of sq km at Galwan, Depsand, Pangang Tso etc? we are letting go of "TERRITORIAL SOVERIGNITY RIGHTS" claimed over 38,000 sq km?

Current Indian Govt and Mil leadership is not so stoopid. They will ensure that the text of any agreement that may be reached explicitly and in bold re-states the full extent of India's territorial claims in the sector in English (though I'd prefer Hindi) and Chinese for total disambiguation because the Chinese will, a few years down the line, hold up this very agreement and claim that India has conceded this or that territory and obfuscate in translations etc.

As I said long ago in this forum, India should make its territorial claims wrt China explicit in the form of a series of GPS coordinates 100 meters apart. Not in the form of a line drawn on a map where the line's thickness itself covers several sq kms as per map scale. And China ha already used this to create confusion and clever interpretations to nibble territory.
Anoop
BRFite
Posts: 632
Joined: 16 May 2002 11:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Anoop »

Y I Patel wrote: * 4 and 6 Divs are now deployed in Eastern Ladakh along with two infantry divs from 1 Corps.
YIP, the 4 and 6 Divisions ARE ex I Corps, so there are aren't any more Divisions from I Corps deployed in Ladakh.

The article makes for depressing reading on two counts:

1. What has the deployment achieved, if we have essentially ceded even patrolling rights? The PLA concessions can be easily reversed at the time of their choosing, since infrastructure (both road and posts) on their side remains in place (except on Fingers 4 and 5).

2. Without access, or indeed permanent posts in the upper reaches of the Galwan River, defense of the road from Shyok to DBO is difficult, making it all the more imperative to get the alternate road via Saser La in place.

I can't shake off the feeling that the PLA, with a feint in the Pangong Tso sector, which had a natural barrier to further encroachment at Finger 4, managed to extract more valuable concessions in the Depsang Plains, by forcing us to take off the table the issue of our patrolling rights from PP 10 through 13. I hope I am wrong.

As far as trading space for time, I wonder what steps we can put in place so that would prevent a recurrence of this.

1. Reliable satellite coverage of the TAR and main passes from Xinjiang to TAR to track PLA troop movement.

2. Road, water, fuel, electricity and communication infrastructure to forward posts in Ladakh.

3. Significant political engagement with Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar to deny PLA additional fronts.

4. Large scale military and civil infrastructure in Andaman and Nicobar.

5. Stepping up naval collaboration with Vietnam and the Philippines.

6. Finally, a revitalization of manufacturing and MSME to gather a larger share of export market to build up the economy.
yensoy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2494
Joined: 29 May 2002 11:31
Location: USA

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by yensoy »

Looking at the de-facto Chinese roads constructed in the Depsang plains which go way beyond their own perception of the LAC well into our territory, I think the Indian military has been asleep at the wheel for some time now. I can understand differing perceptions of the LAC and the fact that both sides patrol into the areas claimed by them, but when one side is so egregious that they feel they can build roads way past their own "published border claim" then something is seriously wrong. We should have stopped them right at the red line like we did in Doklam. The rot is old.
shaun
BRFite
Posts: 1385
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shaun »

yensoy wrote:Looking at the de-facto Chinese roads constructed in the Depsang plains which go way beyond their own perception of the LAC well into our territory, I think the Indian military has been asleep at the wheel for some time now. I can understand differing perceptions of the LAC and the fact that both sides patrol into the areas claimed by them, but when one side is so egregious that they feel they can build roads way past their own "published border claim" then something is seriously wrong. We should have stopped them right at the red line like we did in Doklam. The rot is old.
Exactly my point. If we have allowed construction of roads and other permanent structure in our perceived area , it means we have ceded our control , occasional patrolling is meaning less , some time you can sneak through masking the terrain and firmly returned back by PLA when detected is not how you show your dominance , at least that's case with Pangong Fingers .

2008 - 89
2009 - 100
2010 - 104
2011 - 95
2015 - 164
2016-77
2017 - 112
2018-72
2019 -142
Y I Patel
BRFite
Posts: 781
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Y I Patel »

Anoop

Yes, I had forgotten about 4 Div and 6 Div being part of 1 Corps, so thanks for that.

Regarding the access to patrol points, what does India want to do with that territory? Some of them have great offensive and defensive potential for India, and the Chinese know that. So if India is really serious about asserting the claims, there will be war, so what's the long term cost benefit of that? If India does not have offensive intentions but wants to just keep the claim alive until a more permanent solution is found, then showing the flag through relatively lower threat patrols is the way to go. Even that is causing a whole lot of friction now, so it seems that IA is willing to settle for a buffer zone with no land presence by either military - but one that does not, presumably, preclude observations through UAVs and satellites... if no side has a presence, neither will be threatened and India's goals will be met if the intent is to buy time right now. There's a lot going on right now which makes it advisable for India to have a foot in many camps, and if Modiji does not want to fight this particular battle then that's his prerogative.
ldev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2616
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ldev »

The law of diminishing returns sets in when the marginal cost of maintaining the additional deployment exceeds the marginal benefit of added security. IMO, that point has been reached on the LAC. So unless India goes to war it will not be able to push the Chinese back from present positions. Also IMO the marginal cost of getting that 200 or 500 sq km via a limited war will always exceed the marginal benefit given the logistics tail because of the topography. So the best option at this stage is to freeze the existing LAC into defensible positions and get exponential increases in ISR via satellites and drones. Offensive operations vs China have to be in the sea domain, interdiction of supply routes and from snatching away a chunk of manufacturing GDP where China is king.
Anoop
BRFite
Posts: 632
Joined: 16 May 2002 11:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Anoop »

Hi YIP,

The fallacy with that argument is that China has NO reason to come to a final settlement on the border, especially one that is equitable to India, if it is not forced to do so. As power differential grows, especially projectable power by means of infrastructure development, map boundaries can and have become elastic.

The times when China has blinked was when we did tit-for-tat e.g. 1967 Sumdorong Chu and 2014 Chumar. But we faltered in not pressing the advantage by building infrastructure on the heels of it and instead, allowing the PLA to build infrastructure and cover the gaps, so that such options are not possible. In this instance, what I would have liked was for the Kailash Range to be occupied until PLA agreed to restore IA's patrolling rights in Depsang Plains. What is it worth? The restoration of status quo ante and our credibility in enforcing the Peace and Tranquility agreements between the two countries. Much as we did in Kargil.

Secondly, I think we should up the ante for Tibetan and Xinjiang freedom, both covertly and through diplomatic means. The PLA needs to be covering its flanks and we should do to it what the PA has done to us for 3 decades.

There is no offensive potential in the seas unless we are in a hot war. But we can certainly redirect China's strategic attention to securing its southern sea border, as long as we play the Quad and ASEAN against it.
Anoop
BRFite
Posts: 632
Joined: 16 May 2002 11:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Anoop »

I also forgot to add - given that the PLA doesn't seem to be in the mood for a shooting war this time around, we could have reduced the defenses in depth around the Kailash Range, thereby saving money and material, while still maintaining our hold on the passes and key features. Yes, it's not sound military tactics, but we could have called the PLA's bluff and kept the Moldo garrison under threat until we negotiated a fair settlement in the Depsang Plains. But, that's an arm chair strategist view! It's just born out of frustration at being out maneuvered by the slimy CCP.
Y I Patel
BRFite
Posts: 781
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Y I Patel »

Lt Gen Joshi stated that himself in a series of interviews after the agreement - the occupation of Kailash Range was undertaken as quid pro quo to give us a local and temporary strategic advantage. It presented the Chinese with a situation they could not live with. They would be compelled to negotiate seriously up to a point, but there would always be limits to how much they would concede. If the push came to shove they would have escalated, I'm sure India would have beaten them back... but then what? Would a border skirmish force a total and permanent reversal of China's aggression? Quite the contrary - even if the actual shooting match somehow stayed limited, India would continue to face antagonism from a China that's not getting weaker or less aggressive, and consequently face much more actively hostile responses on other fronts.

But more than anything, what gets lost is that a negotiated compromise means that India forced the ascendant global hegemon to back down without having to engage in a costly and risky military showdown. That itself is a great accomplishment, and one that IMHO gets denigrated in seeking more satisfying but unrealistic outcomes.

A negotiated settlement buys time for India as well... a lot of infrastructure development has been taken up, nothing to stop it from continuing. Likewise for building up IAF and IN... and the biggest benefit is that it retains India's geopolitical options in both camps - Quad as well as SCO. The US, for example, would have been the country that gained most from a shooting match - because India would have no choice but to sign on to a full fledged military alliance, and forego all the advantages of strategic autonomy. This is most relevant for those coming from a continuing strategic relationship with Russia, which would be a lot more constrained partnering with an actively hostile opponent of China.

So yes, a compromise is never ideal or emotionally satisfying, but remember Modiji deserves to pick his battles. This was never one he wanted to fight in the first place, and now he can continue to not have his choice made for him.
Anoop
BRFite
Posts: 632
Joined: 16 May 2002 11:31

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Anoop »

YIP, but my question is - would the PLA have resorted to a hot war to relieve pressure on Moldo garrison? I doubt it. But the chances of a local flare-up, with tanks basically 1 km separation at the Spanggur Gap could not have been ruled out. I am not sanguine about our infrastructure development, given the real difficulty of building in that terrain. But we really should be populating that region, even if it is by non Ladakhis...maybe Tibetan diaspora. Civilian settlement has traditionally dissuaded the Chinese e.g. Demchok. But Tibetan settlement can be a double edged sword, giving the Chinese another sorry justification for expansion based on common ethnicity.

On a different note, the Chinese have been following a land grab for mineral resources,, whether iin Baluchistan or Afghanistan, not to mention Africa. I wonder if sea bed excavation offers an alternate source, so that we are not reliant on them for minerals like Li etc, that can affect future energy sources.
RKumar

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by RKumar »

It seems with every party, Bharat is more accommodating than anyone else be it Napak, Afg, SL, Nepal or Chinese. Why are we not able to make a stand and make a point?

When Chinese unilaterally broke the agreement and change the border, did they worry that Bharat will start the war and will the cost justify their action?

It was a blunder for us to vacate the Kailash range. And I don't understand why vacated it without complete disengagement. It seems we are in hurry to show, we won a battle then achieving a final victory. In this case, it was a good tactical win but a strategic failure.
LakshmanPST
BRFite
Posts: 673
Joined: 05 Apr 2019 18:23

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by LakshmanPST »

Getting the permanent structures which were constructed earlier removed now would mean war...
The issue here is, neither side knows if they'll be able to control the level of escalation once a war starts...
A war will happen once one of the sides comes up with a clear plan and game it such that they can fully control the escalation level...
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7101
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shyamd »

RKumar wrote:It seems with every party, Bharat is more accommodating than anyone else be it Napak, Afg, SL, Nepal or Chinese. Why are we not able to make a stand and make a point?

When Chinese unilaterally broke the agreement and change the border, did they worry that Bharat will start the war and will the cost justify their action?

It was a blunder for us to vacate the Kailash range. And I don't understand why vacated it without complete disengagement. It seems we are in hurry to show, we won a battle then achieving a final victory. In this case, it was a good tactical win but a strategic failure.
There are a number of points

The perception is that GOI is "accommodating" but that's not necessarily correct and the actual truth on ground.

PLA was not geared up for a conflict either - they didn't have the numbers for a start, they didn't take the neighbouring heights... PLA was following the usual policy of 'testing' the adversary, pushing the limits on shifting the border (which needs to be read into context of what PLA is doing on all its borders...who wasn't complaining about PLA aggressive actions on borders?) and the most likely reason is to get GOI to agree to something (RE: BRI)...

Even in Doklam - I can tell you it was PLA that was sweating.

GOI did what any responsible govt would do - aimed to resolve through talks initially.... once that wasn't going anywhere, they conducted Op Snow Leopard which included crossing the LAC which was to prove the point that GOI is not afraid to use it's mil force too... There were 2 withdrawals that took place on those heights by the way... not just the complete withdrawal that the press is stating.

Further, GOI asked the armed forces to change posture re: PLA border to demonstrate will to fight... PLA wanted withdrawal in winter for example... GOI were the ones that stuck it out to prove a point... The Gogra/Hot springs issue was actually resolved as part of Pangong withdrawal... the PLA didn't withdraw in the end because they were worried IA will have the advantage due to troops/eqpt in the rear.

Lots to add on this topic but insufficient time
Last edited by shyamd on 30 Aug 2021 18:38, edited 1 time in total.
nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4712
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nam »

From our perspective, going hot for patrol rights for 8 to 10KM is a pointless war. Unless we have an objective of an comprehensive defeat of Chinese forces across the LAC, i.e. 62 style fight, any hot war is a waste of men & material. This applies for the Chinis as well. They have to comprehensively defeat us across the LAC, otherwise we will just invade on another part of the LAC, in return for any PLA action on Ladakh.

The LAC is 4000KM long. German Soviet front line was 2500KM long... So you can make the math.

So for us, it boils down to 2 things: Infra & mass. We need roads left, right & center. And numbers: artillery, radar, SAM, fighters which will prevent any Chini dreams of "short" war.

On the strategic level, longer the standoff.. better for us. We need large number of PLA troops freezing their back side at 4000 mtrs high, 3000KM away from their girfriend's lap. Our line of comm is quite short. Not for the Chinis.
shyamd
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7101
Joined: 08 Aug 2006 18:43

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by shyamd »

x post from Afghanistan thread
shyamd wrote:
ldev wrote: I think that Pakistani influence in Taliban 2.0 will be much less than Taliban 1.0. Taliban 2.0 has been influenced by Qatar and MB, leadership in Doha for many years. And therefore also under Turkish influence.
Be careful....maybe ISI want us to think that. From speaking to people I'm getting the sense all dirty business (terror training) will be shipped of to Afghanistan from places like Mansehra and PoK. TSP will follow the international community publicly...i.e. if the powers recognise, they will recognise... if they don't then TSP won't.

The impact will be TSPA will come out of FATF and look clean... they'll say all terror planning/training is happening from "ungoverned places".


Iran has close ties with many in Talebs but they aren't trusted.

UAE has approached Turkey for alliance on Afghan file.
CDS statements on afghanistan have confirmed. One thing to add is that Pulwama attack was planned from Afg.
nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4712
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nam »

If the next round comes from Afghanistan, then as I expected we would need Nirbhay follow the wavepoints through the Karakoram , Wakan corridor and then in to Afghanistan.

PoK is Indian territory, so we are well within our rights to fly through it.
srin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2509
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:13

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by srin »

^^^ No no no. Doesn't matter Taliban, ISIS-K or whatever brand, it is all ISI. The punishment must always be against Pakistan.
vimal
BRFite
Posts: 1904
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by vimal »

Right on srin.
Attacking Afghanistan is repeating US blunder.
ritesh
BRFite
Posts: 494
Joined: 13 Dec 2005 17:48
Location: Mumbai

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ritesh »

srin wrote:^^^ No no no. Doesn't matter Taliban, ISIS-K or whatever brand, it is all ISI. The punishment must always be against Pakistan.
And the punishment which should visible quantifiable and undeniable by the porkis.
Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14332
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Aditya_V »

Attacking Afganistan is following USA failed strategy, terrorist s will not catapult from Afganistan to space and land in Kashmir. Pakistan and Pok willbe there bases which need to attacked.

You can attack Paki miltary compounds and claim they were terror camps
VKumar
BRFite
Posts: 730
Joined: 15 Sep 1999 11:31
Location: Mumbai,India

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by VKumar »

Pakistan is India's strategic depth against Taliban.
Roop
BRFite
Posts: 670
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Roop »

shyamd wrote:There were 2 withdrawals that took place on those heights by the way... not just the complete withdrawal that the press is stating.
Two withdrawals by whom? India? China? One of each?

Your posts are IMO really interesting, but you have to be a little less cryptic/ambiguous and say directly what you mean.

TIA.
Roop
BRFite
Posts: 670
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Roop »

ritesh wrote:And the punishment which should visible quantifiable and undeniable by the porkis.
Aditya_V wrote:You can attack Paki miltary compounds and claim they were terror camps
Two excellent ideas that we should have followed on both previous 'surgical strikes', i.e. in response to the Uri attack and the Pulwama attack. Especially re. what Ritesh said, it is clear that GoI so far has made too much effort to try and save Paki's H&D, keep the Indian military response so low-key and secret that Pakis simply deny that anything happened, and the Indian native traitor class (the 'sabooth gang' of INC, CPI, Lutyens media etc.) publicly say they believe Pakis and GoI is lying.
anupmisra
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9203
Joined: 12 Nov 2006 04:16
Location: New York

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by anupmisra »

VKumar wrote:Pakistan is India's strategic depth against Taliban.
I partly agree with you.

Not the whole of pakhanistan, though. In ancient India, Indus river was really the defining boundary for Bharatvarsh. The tribes across the river (Mlechcha kingdoms) were not to be trusted but enjoined by treaties.

Therefore, the region between India's boundaries and the Indust river is in my opinion India's strategic depth.
rajpa
BRFite
Posts: 437
Joined: 04 Aug 2004 09:35
Location: Chennai

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by rajpa »

Roop wrote:
ritesh wrote:And the punishment which should visible quantifiable and undeniable by the porkis.
Aditya_V wrote:You can attack Paki miltary compounds and claim they were terror camps
Two excellent ideas that we should have followed on both previous 'surgical strikes', i.e. in response to the Uri attack and the Pulwama attack. Especially re. what Ritesh said, it is clear that GoI so far has made too much effort to try and save Paki's H&D, keep the Indian military response so low-key and secret that Pakis simply deny that anything happened, and the Indian native traitor class (the 'sabooth gang' of INC, CPI, Lutyens media etc.) publicly say they believe Pakis and GoI is lying.
Great point. If any infiltration or incursion is spotted, 15 Porki army posts in that region should be obliterated/wiped out for facilitating it. This should be announced as our strategic defense policy against terrorist infiltration and should not be equated to ceasefire violations.


(We can print this and handover to TSP in a nice ceremony as photo op opportunity of our joint collaboration against terrorism. :twisted: that way the sabooth brigage also will be happy.)
Post Reply