India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

[Y I Patel]

Charding La is to the southwest of Demchok, and to the east of Chumar. Roughly half-way between the two. There is a nullah (presumably Charding Nullah) flowing towards Demchok and joining the Sindhu. Based on a cursory examination of the topography it looks like the nullah is the LAC in that area and it would be extremely difficult for the Chinese to sustain any deployment on the wrong side of the nullah.

Coordinates for Charding La: 32°31'27"N 79°24'7"E

Link to a 3D Map:
Charding La

[manjgu]

once we disengage from PTso what lever do we have to force PLA to comply is beyond me..( atleast from what is available on public fora)? from what i understood ..depsang is one end of the chain..PTso in the middle..demchok is the other end. i think the biggest loss of patrolling rights was in depsang area and which is of critical interest to PLA.. negotiations should have begun from there. Ptso IMHO has more publicity value but from a strategic POV depsang is more important. I still do not understand why Ptso has to happen first.

1. It is we jingos who are clubbing PTso, Kailash range (yes I keep South PTso & Kailash range separate), Gogara, Hot Spring, Despsang, Galwan & Demchok.

2. Lt Gen YK Joshi & commanders keept only PTso & Kailash range togather where South PTso & Kailash range for bargain chips. YK Joshi pointed out in interview with Gaurav c Sawant of india today as well with Nitin Gokhale.

3. They are not even considering Depsang with 2020 incident, he even pointed out that in near past there was incident at depsang which lasted for 21 days and chinese went back.

4. He also mentioned that as things stand today, IA & PLA both are blocking each other's patrol. PLA perception line is quite in toward west. IA is not allowing them.

5. He also mentioned during both interviews that IA has ways to created South of PTso & Kailash range at Depsang and at other points.

6. Gogra & Hot Spring are stalled disengagement which should be relatively fast and there are not large number of troops facing each other either which will make it even faster.

New entrant in disengagement talk is Charding Ninglung Nallah (CNN) !

Similarly, the “friction” at the Charding Ninglung Nallah (CNN) track junction in the Demchok sector, which arose after the people’s Liberation Army (PLA) pitched some tents while also denying grazing rights to Indian villagers there, should be relatively easier to resolve, said sources.

IF POSSIBLE CAN ANYONE DRAW A MAP OF DEMCHOK AREA ? INDIA's area vs Chinese. A request to Rohit went in vain.

-Ankit

as per news coming out 10th round has failed.

2. i am trying to understand the logic for not discussing all the friction points in 1 go and doing it piecemeal ?

4. Correct me if i am wrong ( on the question of blocking patrols) .. PLA perception is till burtse and IA perception is close to the PPs. however, we patrolled till PP's but did PLA patrol till Burtse?

5. i will see the vid again for point no 5 ( any plausible reason we did not do a kailash range in depsang?)

[NRao]

as per news coming out 10th round has failed.

2. i am trying to understand the logic for not discussing all the friction points in 1 go and doing it piecemeal ?

............

That is what the GoI has always wanted. GoI did have the chance to reboot after the Kailash Range episode on Aug 29th, but opted to keep to the script.

Nothing, from a GoI PoV, has changed

[sanjaykumar]

Except that the Kailash Range is now littered with landmines, listening devices, accelerometers to detect movement and likely crisscrossed with tunnels.

Tunnels likely to have been stocked with food, water and weapons caches.

[NRao]

Except that the Kailash Range is now littered with landmines, listening devices, accelerometers to detect movement and likely crisscrossed with tunnels.

Tunnels likely to have been stocked with food, water and weapons caches.

Are all these confirmed news?

Kailash Range is within Indian LAC, there has never been any doubt about that - even from the PLA. So unless the landmines are on the other side of the LAC, there is really no use. Nikhil Gohkle addressed this issue - said that IF the PLA make a move IA can move faster. After all the PLA has to move from at least some 100 Kms out.

I feel India has won this round and needs to forget Pangong Tso, etc and capitalize in other areas: WHO (chairman), UNSC, etc. Checkmate China there and the LCA will be resolved for the time being - the bigger picture is the Indo-Tibetan border.

[Ankit Desai]

1. It is we jingos who are clubbing PTso, Kailash range (yes I keep South PTso & Kailash range separate), Gogara, Hot Spring, Despsang, Galwan & Demchok.
.....
-Ankit

as per news coming out 10th round has failed.

2. i am trying to understand the logic for not discussing all the friction points in 1 go and doing it piecemeal ?

4. Correct me if i am wrong ( on the question of blocking patrols) .. PLA perception is till burtse and IA perception is close to the PPs. however, we patrolled till PP's but did PLA patrol till Burtse?

5. i will see the vid again for point no 5 ( any plausible reason we did not do a kailash range in depsang?)

Failed ! It is first round. Reset clock, new rounds starts for Gogra, Hot Springs, Depsang, Demchok. It took 9-10 rounds to achieve status quo ante April 2020 at PTso.

2. YK Joshi explained.

4. PLA came close back in 2013, stayed there for 21 days and went back. As things stands, google's image 08/01/2016 IA has post at Burtse.

Depsang, YK Joshi explained, perception is even higher than Finger area. Apprx 1000 odd kms.

-Ankit

[manjgu]

Ankit ...1) all rounds till 7th IIRC failed as per YKJ ...its only when we got Han tail under our boots that the issue was resolved ! all i am trying to understand what presure points we have against PLA for further rounds to succeed or what will motivate PLA to resolve the impasse. 2) when were IA patrols stopped from patrolling till PP's in Depsang? 3) Nrao... yes u r right that GOI wanted that way but i am trying to understand the motivation for resolving PT issue first/alone and not part of a larger 'package'. Was it that PT issue attracted widespread publicity and GOI wanted to prove a point? that we have pushed PLA back and scored a victory.

[LakshmanPST]

IF POSSIBLE CAN ANYONE DRAW A MAP OF DEMCHOK AREA ? INDIA's area vs Chinese. A request to Rohit went in vain.

-Ankit

I marked the general area and roads here--->
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7810&p=2447484&hili ... K#p2447484

But don't know the specifics of CNN...

In the image that I shared in the embedded post, the Yellow line seemed to be the LAC on the ground...
That Yellow line is Indus river from Fukche to Demchok, where the river flows in North West direction...
At Demchok, a Nala joins the Indus river... I guess this Nala is the LAC coz. I observed Chinese roads on East bank and Indian road on the West bank... This Nala flows from South towards North and merges Indus at Demchok...

If you observe the terrain, the Nala's starting point is surrounded by mountains on all sides and small streams coming from the mountains feed into the Nala... Indian claim line is the ridge line on these mountains...
Chardung La (or Charding La) Pass is located South of the starting point of this Nala on this ridgeline...
China built a road over the Chardung La pass into the Nala valley to its starting point...

I guess this is the Nala that is in news...

[ramana]

Manjgu you are ex soldier. Why are you doubting Army General who so far has delivered?
What is his confidence even PLA would like to know!
Let's wait and see.
It took 9 rounds plus a lot of things to vacate Pangong Tso.
Let's see.

[ramana]

I have two tweets on the situation so far.

https://twitter.com/ramana_brf/status/1 ... 53824?s=19

India's China problem has always been political.
In 1962 China made a political decision to use PLA as an instrument of force in an area where India could not resist nor escalate due to resources and lack of political will. 1/2

https://twitter.com/ramana_brf/status/1 ... 03107?s=19

In 2020 India took a political decision to react in Ladakh (area) using Indian military services and economic measures (weapon) which PRC could not resist except by using a different weapon or in a different area. And this neither side wanted.
Hence the Pangong Tso reversal! 2/F

Please comment.

[Deans]

I have two tweets on the situation so far.

https://twitter.com/ramana_brf/status/1 ... 53824?s=19

https://twitter.com/ramana_brf/status/1 ... 03107?s=19

Please comment.

I agree Ramana ji. We often believe that since China's economy is 5 times ours, we cant confront them. A different way of looking at it, is that their trade surplus with India shrink by US$ 15 billion in 2020-21. This was on the back of a $5 billion reduction in 19-20.
Thus China lost 110,000 crore (most of that was import substituted, so Indian economy gained) from their salami slicing/ Galwan adventure.

Add to that pushback from other countries, also keen to restrict Chinese investment and reduce their trade deficit and India's stand could well have a domino effect and hit the Chinese economy significantly.

[manjgu]

not for a moment i am doubting the Generals. i am trying to understand the why of it. Was it something which was politically expeditious and/or militarily sound . why we insisted only on PTso. anyway we will await the result of talks.

[Cyrano]

Right across the Kailash range where we occupied the heights is our Chushul base. Any movement by the Chinese from Moldo to get closer to Spangur lake or gap can be effectively detected and countered by rapid troop mobilisation from Chushul as well as artillery. Refer to the maps and you will see this.

[manjgu]

Cyrano .. u need to study the maps once again... I have spent some time in Chushul. Spangur lake is behind
Moldo ..moldo practically is on the lake..spangur gap is in front of Moldo...

[nam]

Based on the numerous report and the comment from the 15 Corps CO, the Depsang issue seems to be about access through Bottleneck. Just like the access from F3 to F4 is a narrow path, I think bottleneck has a similar geographical constrain.

Overall there is a specific threat around Depsang, being good armor warfare. However the bottleneck per sa may not be an issue. We need to remember, Depsang is not a 1 or 2Km region.

There will be alternative path, heights etc, which IA can easily deploy if we really want to create pressure on the PLA. I keep saying, Chinese salami will only work IF we agree to it. We choose to counter deploy and counter intrude, Chini have to no choice other than go back or deploy themselves year long to guard their salami.

This is what the Chini don't want. They don't want India counter deploying. They saw the writing on the wall, when we deployed 90 thousand troops!

[ramana]

It was militarily needed. Off course free to dispute it.

[Rudradev]

Two things to keep in mind:

1) Xi Jinping is the first PRC leader since Mao to exercise as much personal control over all three wings of China's authority structure: the Politburo Standing Committee, the Government (National People's Congress and State Council), and also the Central Military Commission. The CPC is designed to avoid having any one leader accumulate power across all three departments. Now that an exception has been made for XI Jinping, his prestige as a leader of any one department would certainly be affected by his perceived successes (or failures) in running the other departments.

A failure in his capacity as CMC leader, for example, would open him up to attacks from rivals in the government and the Politburo. It was thus very important to him that any military undertaking should only burnish and bolster his prestige and never produce a questionable outcome (let alone an embarrassing loss).

2) As part of his leadership of CMC, Xi launched a major reorganization initiative to essentially restructure the PLA and rewrite its warfighting doctrine.

Some details here:
https://jamestown.org/program/the-plas- ... on-part-1/
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/p ... _CT488.pdf
https://www.vifindia.org/article/2016/f ... -for-india

Xi has staked a lot of his political fortunes on these reforms. From the purely cosmetic (soldiers in "space-age" black uniforms riding Segway scooters in parades) to the operationally significant (tactics and strategy pursued by PLAN in the South China Sea over the last 10-odd years) Xi's regime has taken trouble to showcase PLA as a "brave new military" that is far more professional, streamlined, technologically adept, and capable of taking on the US or any NATO adversary.

Backing down from the teeth of India's mirror deployment is a tremendous blow not just to China's H&D but to Xi's image of being a visionary, multi-faceted leader. The Chinese tend to be insular and self-obsessed; it is unlikely that the mental image CPC leaders in Beijing have of India has changed very much over the decades. CPC political leaders (as opposed to military thinkers) will not give much consideration to the fact that India of 2021 is not the India of 1962. Rather, they will see this as a major failing of Xi's ambitious program to modernize the PLA-- beating the Indians, which could once be achieved by young peasants armed with Soviet rifles and carrying live pigs on their backs for food, is apparently beyond the capacity of the lean, mean, and technologically advanced PLA under Xi Jinping.

Remember also that this comes on top of COVID19 and all its repercussions for China-- local as well as global.

Some interesting times lie ahead in Beijing.

[sanjaykumar]

Definitely. This will be used by factions against his royal potentate.

I expect India to be releasing unflattering videos of the PRA ( people’s repression army).

[Anujan]

Either that or Eleven finds some other heads to roll "They disobeyed leadership command guidance"

On the concerning side, they might still try to salvage image by trying to gain in other sectors.

[Vayutuvan]

Definitely. This will be used by factions against his royal potentate.

I expect India to be releasing unflattering videos of the PRA ( people’s repression army).

How would those videos reach lower ranks of PLA/Chinese Party apparatchik/citizenry? That is the question.

[sanjaykumar]

The Chinese citizenry is irrelevant to the CCP.

And yes Chinese monitor sites such as this one.

[ramana]

This is like October 1962 Cuban Missiles Crisis.
By 1964, Khrushchev was replaced by Gormokov and Kosygin.

However China has single leader. No duarcy.

[ramana]

Also it might be good to have a wiser XJP still in charge.

[Atmavik]

Also it might be good to have a wiser XJP still in charge.

Jack Ma or Jiang Mianheng are capable leaders...

[Jayram]

Remember this timing. It is the lunar new year. China went back post haste to send conscripts back home? Needs to be considered as they came in after the new year last year and went back on the dot of new year this year. China essentially shuts down for one week at this new year time. There would be pressures to reach an agreement from top to bottom of the Chinese hierarchy.

[Deans]

Remember this timing. It is the lunar new year. China went back post haste to send conscripts back home? Needs to be considered as they came in after the new year last year and went back on the dot of new year this year. China essentially shuts down for one week at this new year time. There would be pressures to reach an agreement from top to bottom of the Chinese hierarchy.

I don't think it has anything to do with the new year. The PLA was probably unable to sustain men at high altitude for months. Casualties from the altitude and terrain will be noticed, first by China's adversaries and then by the Chinese people - they were probably a lot higher than Galwan.
IA sustaining 0 fatal casualties from the deployment will also be noted - as would the IAF's ability to conduct an airlift in very adverse conditions.

[shyamd]

I don’t think it’s time to celebrate. There was a back channel diplomacy between Russia India and China. They are trying to arrange a summit in Delhi in the next few months.

Something related to Belt and road is being negotiated

We’ll know soon.

First news about the summit plans trickling out....

Too early to speculate on whether President Xi would attend BRICS summit in India

Part of the agreement that was hashed out involved a Chennai to Vladivostok corridor (kid you not) with Chinese nod. Another article this morning:

India Seeks To Expand Its Economic Presence In Russia's Far East To Counterbalance China's Influence

Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla spent two days last week in Moscow, where he met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and other senior officials.
As he later told an audience of students at the elite Russian Diplomatic Academy, one of the primary aims of his trip was to discuss bolstering economic cooperation in the Russian Far East.
"We see that as a very high potential area, where we can develop new sectors and help companies looking to invest in new areas such as coking coal, timber, liquid natural gas. There is huge potential there," he said.
Nandan Unnikrishnan, a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, told Nikkei Asia that Indian policymakers have watched with growing concern in recent years as Russia drew ever closer to China in response to worsening relations with the West.
For India, the Russian Far East has emerged as a region of growing interest over the past three years.
During a 2019 visit to the Far Eastern port city of Vladivostok, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that New Delhi would provide a USD 1 billion loan to aid the region's economic development. He also signed a memorandum to establish a direct maritime corridor between Chennai and Vladivostok, reported Nikkei Asia.
The new sea route is expected to cut the shipping time for goods between India and Russia to 24 days, versus 40 days via an European route.
Moreover, India has recently sought to bring Japan aboard its investment plans in the region. Last month, representatives from India, Japan and Russia concluded their first Track II or semi-official negotiations about joint Far East projects.
The three countries identified energy, coal mining, diamond processing, forestry, agro-industry, transportation and pharmaceuticals as potential areas of cooperation, reported Nikkei Asia.
"If India and other Asian countries don't get involved in the Russian Far East, then Russia will increasingly have to look to China as its main partner for developing the region," Unnikrishnan said.

Discussions are still ongoing AFAIK

I have always said the number 1 problem for India is how to keep Russia on side given we are trying to indigenize/buy western military equipment (the main reason why we trade with them). Efforts to build the Iran/rail route haven't been met by major success due to the Iran sanctions.

[nam]

We cannot allow Russia a veto over our relation with the Chinis. Did we ever ask Russia to stop defence tech supplies to China? If Russia doesn't accept a Indian veto over their relation with Chinese, why should we?

China has been using Russia to tamper our reactions to it's actions. We have the Russian albatross, where we cannot integrate ourself in to the Western supply chain, ally with them, nor provide a tough reaction towards Chinese actions.

Time Russia is told in uncertain terms, their relation with us is not to act as Chinese broker.

[Ankit Desai]

India has 'strategies' in place to tackle Depsang after 'win-win situation' for both in Pangong Tso: Army chief

India has 'strategies’ in place to tackle the 'pending’ friction areas like Depsang in eastern Ladakh as well as other parts of the Line of Actual Control with China, said General MM Naravane on Wednesday, while describing the Pangong Tso disengagement as 'a very good end-result’ in 'a win-win situation’ for both sides.

“There is a trust deficit… We will be wary and cautious. We have something to negotiate with in future talks, but I would not like to talk about those strategies,” he said.

The quote which matters to me is below. I am sure establishment including IA are aware of it. I am glad IA Chief spelled out.

China is in the habit of making “small, creeping, incremental moves” to grab new territory without a shot being fired or loss of life, with each change by itself not being big enough to be contested.

-Ankit

[ramana]

Ladakh update and 10th commanders conference

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/pangon ... 194063.cms

[Vips]

^^
But what if the PLA suddenly decides to occupy the Kailash range heights? The Pangong Tso agreement, as also the earlier pacts with China, is “premised on the fact that it will be observed in letter and spirit” and “we hope the PLA will adhere to it”, said the Army chief.(Sooner or later we will regret it, vacating the Kailash range heights is a very badmove)

[Ankit Desai]

^^
But what if the PLA suddenly decides to occupy the Kailash range heights? The Pangong Tso agreement, as also the earlier pacts with China, is “premised on the fact that it will be observed in letter and spirit” and “we hope the PLA will adhere to it”, said the Army chief.(Sooner or later we will regret it, vacating the Kailash range heights is a very badmove)

Vips, continuation from where you left in same article,

India, however, has also taken precautions, placed “systems in place” and will closely monitor PLA’s activities along the frontier to preclude the possibility of any such contingency, he added.

-Ankit

[yensoy]

Let's not forget that Kailash range is clearly on our side of the LAC, even in the Chinese perception of it. That is a line that PLA may not wish to cross because that would be an outright aggression and would invite war.

[ramana]

There are a few redlines already communicated to XJP.

But need to.understand that after 2008 US financial.colllaode China got aggressive and Sametime UPA stagnated. This caused financial imbalance. And the salami nibbling began..
So if economy tanks, the military can't be sustained and will be back to square one.
So guns and butter are needed.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 72997?s=20 ---> The CCP report also said that most of the Indian army’s main battle equipment and ground troops are equipped with night vision eqmnt & added, “They are good at night attacks, carrying out air raids, ground infiltration, airborne operation on their enemy’s rear.”

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 57096?s=20 ---> Adds: Indian army paid attention to learning from the experience of combat in high altitude areas. It has flexibly mastered tactics such as firepower warfare, comvined arms warfare, info warfare, logistics support etc. Their actual combat experience should not be underestimated.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 77376?s=20 ---> Indian Army working on an AI project to translate from Mandarin to English (& vice versa), confirms Army Chief. Will be useful for SIGINT stations along China frontier who can instantly translate intercepted PLA communications without having to pass them through translators.

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 47077?s=20 ---> Also has some applications in cryptography & cryptanalysis.

[Deans]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 32092.html

Pak has chickened out after big blother pulled back.
I think its a significant development as Pak has realised that China cannot intimidate us and China has realised it cannot count on Pak to keep the
LOC and insurgency hot.
Kashmir lost 2 tourist seasons, in 2019 due to article 370 abrogation and then Covid. If we have a normal summer this year (high tourism & low
infiltration & terror incidents), which would be the opposite of what Pak-China hoped, it would be a big win for us.

[Aditya_V]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 32092.html

Pak has chickened out after big blother pulled back.
I think its a significant development as Pak has realised that China cannot intimidate us and China has realised it cannot count on Pak to keep the
LOC and insurgency hot.
Kashmir lost 2 tourist seasons, in 2019 due to article 370 abrogation and then Covid. If we have a normal summer this year (high tourism & low
infiltration & terror incidents), which would be the opposite of what Pak-China hoped, it would be a big win for us.

I give them a few days to stab us the in the back, what is the use of any agreement with Pak??? The moment we lower our guard they will do a ceasefire violation.

[Deans]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 32092.html

Pak has chickened out after big blother pulled back.
I think its a significant development as Pak has realised that China cannot intimidate us and China has realised it cannot count on Pak to keep the
LOC and insurgency hot.
Kashmir lost 2 tourist seasons, in 2019 due to article 370 abrogation and then Covid. If we have a normal summer this year (high tourism & low
infiltration & terror incidents), which would be the opposite of what Pak-China hoped, it would be a big win for us.

I give them a few days to stab us the in the back, what is the use of any agreement with Pak??? The moment we lower our guard they will do a ceasefire violation.

Of course we can't trust them and I doubt we will move any formation away from the LOC. However, I believe the symbolism is important. Pak
is publicly telling China they want a ceasefire, just when China needs them to escalate. The message to Kashmiri's is that their struggle is not worth keeping the LOC active.

[nam]

Pak probably wants to move it's units towards the west, given the regular losses over there.

I was hoping we could have kept the pressure on LC and bleed them badly. Pak may have seen the writing on the wall, as the Chinis went back, however this is a not a good thing for us.

GoI as usual will take the wrong lessons. It will think, diplomacy will help manage escalation. This will effect our modernization, R&D funding, dropping our guard etc.

Pak & Chinis will come back next time with a better plan. We as usual will be caught off guard.