India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

The Military Issues & History Forum is a venue to discuss issues relating to the military aspects of the Indian Armed Forces, whether the past, present or future. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8103
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nachiket » 29 Oct 2020 06:45

Mod-note: Ok enough of the discussion about Indian consumers and cold weather gear etc. This is going way OT for this thread. You can continue in a suitable thread in the Tech-Econ forum if you wish.

darshhan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2734
Joined: 12 Dec 2008 11:52

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshhan » 29 Oct 2020 09:07

S_Madhukar wrote:This is also the result of us not encouraging Himalayan tourism and alpine sports as we should have. I mean we have foreign tourists who hike and climb the Himalayas but we never encouraged domestic adventure tourism in that sense. hopefully things will change with the younger generation...


Foreign tourists will anyways bring their own gear. Indian hikers and trekkers are very small subset of Indian tourist nos. This number is not likely to rise a lot. The reason will be surprising to you. It is India's antiquated arms act. Only a fool will undertake serious trekking or hiking activities in himalayas being unarmed. The lower to middle ranges are heavily forested as are the valleys and these abound in wild animals. Even in higher reaches you could find predatory species such as snow leopards. If you are unarmed you are taking a very big risk. Since Indian state treats its subjects with extreme contempt and as lesser humans, hardly anyone is given a license. So scope of such outdoor activities will be extremely limited in our glorious nation. Our politico bureaucratic overlords don't deem these activities as suitable for us.

A word of sincere advice for the aspiring trekkers and hikers. Do check with with your trekking group whether the guides have weapons or not.

CalvinH
BRFite
Posts: 669
Joined: 15 Jul 2007 04:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby CalvinH » 29 Oct 2020 10:12

darshhan wrote:
The reason will be surprising to you. It is India's antiquated arms act. Only a fool will undertake serious trekking or hiking activities in himalayas being unarmed. The lower to middle ranges are heavily forested as are the valleys and these abound in wild animals. Even in higher reaches you could find predatory species such as snow leopards. If you are unarmed you are taking a very big risk.
A word of sincere advice for the aspiring trekkers and hikers. Do check with with your trekking group whether the guides have weapons or not.


You are very wrong here. Just check the videos of solo travelers and hikers around the world and none of them carry a gun. There are many others tools to scare the animal away or keep them away. You don’t have to fight or kill them to keep yourself safe.

That snow leopard mention must be joke. I am sure people would camp just to be able to watch them.

YashG
BRFite
Posts: 193
Joined: 22 Apr 2017 00:10

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby YashG » 29 Oct 2020 11:33

Cold weather apparel is mainly about specialised polymer materials/ Stitching them can happen anywhere in Ludhiana or Tiruppur - very easy for even 20-50K orders. It is not the cost of setting up the ops or even buying the materials in bulk. Infact thr will be lil different in the cold weather adventure gear and military ops. This isnt even a mil specific capability! Indeed thr might be an indian supplier doing this.

Even if we had a local supplier (we 'd not pay them on time - Indian govt treats thr suppliers shoddily, greasing is mandatory to release payments). So every supplier bakes in the cost of grease. But greasing also makes the procurement inflexible. When we buy from firangs, we behave better ( Like indian housewives do not haggle for a pricey burger at mcd unlike we do with a veggie vendor). So sitting in MoD or Army HQ, knowing that I want something fast - I will not just trust our procurement. I know it sounds so shoddy but thats what we do with Indian vendors.

Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12424
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Aditya_V » 29 Oct 2020 12:05

YashG- spot on, Many Indians treat other Indians badly while groveling to the Gora's- they will set impossible terms to Indian vendors but gift away orders to foreign vendors for say 1 onsite visit.

YashG
BRFite
Posts: 193
Joined: 22 Apr 2017 00:10

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby YashG » 29 Oct 2020 12:41

“Don’t know about nuclear button or nuclear flashpoint. But PM Modi gave green signal to all measures if any harm came to the IAF officer at the hands of Pakistan Army …. India was prepared to go down the missile road on February 27 , ” said the CCS member. ( old tale)

A recent string of article talks about why Abhinandan was released so promptly - India was about to do a missile attack on Pakistan. Pakistanis were literally kurta-shivering. I'm NOT at all a modi fan (too neutral) but I like the way he has changed the red lines and Indian stance. Reading that pakis were afraid cz we would pretty much take the fight to their homes, is something that Pakistanis never faced before. Its a jingo pleasure to even read such stuff.

What could a missile attack of 9-12 look like?
a. What types, b. what targets, c. what decimation, d. what counter-measure ( since Pak would have retaliated?)


------------

a. Brahmos for sure! ; Which ballistic missiles?
b. #1 Karachi for sure! A few indian destroyers sending Karachi port in flames/Pak navy in flames ( Nightmares of 71 revisited)
b. #2 Some missile bases of Pakistan/fwd deployments?

rpartha
BRFite
Posts: 119
Joined: 24 Sep 2016 00:04

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby rpartha » 30 Oct 2020 01:36

Trying to bring the topic back on track - the more I think about it and the way geopolitics is changing, this attack by China is to prevent India from attacking Pakistan/GB.... US will have no friends left apart from India - with Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia, China etc trying to form a block... even if any central Asian countries want, they are landlocked with no access to them... access to GB will open up some routes for us...

Davidrock
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 78
Joined: 10 Mar 2019 12:07

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Davidrock » 30 Oct 2020 04:43

If Pakistani nukes are removed, we will be in a much better position to capture GB. However, we need to prepare the target before attacking it.
Their freedom movement is still in nascent stage.

mihir.mehta
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 37
Joined: 09 Sep 2020 11:11

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby mihir.mehta » 30 Oct 2020 10:35

rpartha wrote: this attack by China is to prevent India from attacking Pakistan/GB.... US will have no friends left apart from India

That's what this is really!!! And by doing that China is securing its CPEC.

The only thing we can really do is - to create top of the line all weather infra and an agile, light, swift, modern military force and ALWAYS keep Pak under pressure - all along the western border.

Spend the least amount of money to keep the Pakis under pressure - play a game of attrition, wear them down.

rpartha
BRFite
Posts: 119
Joined: 24 Sep 2016 00:04

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby rpartha » 30 Oct 2020 10:49

This is not just about CPEC either... Asia, Africa, South America and part of Europe is getting divided between pro US and pro China/Russia bloc just like during the cold war era... The thing is China needs Russia on their side to be successful and US needs India on their side to be successful... among many reasons - among many reasons, one of the reason for this action is to force India into US bloc and cut off ties between Russia and India.. China underXii may have realized that this is inevitable - ie clash between US and China and no more peaceful raising... prob they may have played their hand too soon instead of waiting for another 10 years... but next couple of decades going to be interesting...

Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6617
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Dilbu » 30 Oct 2020 11:40

China tries to negotiate sweet deal to step back in Ladakh. India won’t bite
Even as New Delhi awaits Beijing’s confirmation on a date for the eighth round of military-diplomatic level dialogue on disengagement in East Ladakh, HT learns that it has rejected the conditions posed by the People’s Liberation Army for the withdrawal of Chinese troops from the Finger 4 mountainous spur on the north banks of Pangong Tso.

According to senior military commanders familiar with the discussions between the two sides, India has found PLA’s condition that Indian Army should only patrol till Finger 3 of Pangong Tso, with the Chinese army only patrolling till Finger 5 unacceptable as this means that the contentious Finger 4 will become part of occupied Aksai Chin.

Essentially, the Chinese proposal means that Finger 4 will become out of bounds for both armies even though the Indian Army used to (or at least try to) patrol till Finger 8 in the past.

The Chinese perception of the line of actual control or LAC, by a 1959 line, runs through Finger 4 of the Pangong Tso lake.

The Indian perception of LAC is that the line runs through Finger 8 of the salt water lake. To complicate matters, the PLA has built a road right up to Finger 4 from Finger 8, while the Indian side is still to connect by road to Finger 4.

While Indian and Chinese troops are both at the height of 5800 metres on Finger 4, Beijing’s proposal calls for permanent vacation of the spur by the Indian Army.
On May 5-6 night, the PLA, using riot gear and nail studded clubs and rods launched an assault on Finger 4, throwing an Indian Army officer into the Pangong Tso lake and overpowering contesting Indian troops.

New Delhi has also rejected Beijing’s proposal that the Indian Army vacate the Rezang La -Rechin La ridge-line on the south bank of the Pangong Tso first as part of the disengagement process.

India’s position, which has been conveyed to the Chinese according to the military commanders cited above is that the aggression on the LAC was initiated by Chinese troops — first on Finger 4, then in the Galwan valley and finally, in the Gogra-Hot Springs area — and that the Indian Army then retaliated in South Pangong Tso. New Delhi wants the disengagement and de-escalation to follow the same order, with the Chinese withdrawing first.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23655
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby chetak » 30 Oct 2020 21:15

for those who were wondering about the many alphabet soup agreements that India signed with the US

this is going to cause quite an itch in the han langotes

First time LEMOA used in an operational context.


Manu Pubby@manupubby · Oct 29

India activated key foundational pact with US for soldiers deployed along China border.

11,000 sets of Extended Cold Weather Clothing System (ECWCS) arrived late last month from US Army stocks.

First time LEMOA used in an operational context.


India acquires 11,000 extreme cold gear sets from US army

RajaRudra
BRFite
Posts: 136
Joined: 17 Sep 2019 14:13

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby RajaRudra » 30 Oct 2020 22:19

chetak wrote:for those who were wondering about the many alphabet soup agreements that India signed with the US

this is going to cause quite an itch in the han langotes

First time LEMOA used in an operational context.


Manu Pubby@manupubby · Oct 29

India activated key foundational pact with US for soldiers deployed along China border.

11,000 sets of Extended Cold Weather Clothing System (ECWCS) arrived late last month from US Army stocks.

First time LEMOA used in an operational context.


India acquires 11,000 extreme cold gear sets from US army



Good! May be we should be little pro active in having the minimum required winter gear. Who ever responsible for planning , had not even considered a small skirmish with china to begin with!

Who ever, that person/commission/ministry must have many such known/Still unknown gaps for sure.

We are outsourcing our lack of planning ability to some colorful soup agreement. Good it seems to be working now. But at what economical and strategic cost, that we will never be knowing.

Thakur_B
BRFite
Posts: 1739
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Thakur_B » 31 Oct 2020 08:14

IA has started trials of Locally developed extremely cold weather wearables by OFB. Let's hope for the best.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 24189
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SSridhar » 31 Oct 2020 08:33

rpartha wrote: . . . the more I think about it and the way geopolitics is changing, this attack by China is to prevent India from attacking Pakistan/GB.... . . .

My post in June
Second Post

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4626
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cain Marko » 31 Oct 2020 10:58

SSridhar wrote:
rpartha wrote: . . . the more I think about it and the way geopolitics is changing, this attack by China is to prevent India from attacking Pakistan/GB.... . . .

My post in June
Second Post


Sridharji, I think you are bang on target here. And the first post above captures it:
B has to be taken. That will put paid to a lot of Chinese ambitions.
China's latest moves in Ladakh have to be seen from its necessity to secure GB. It is not merely protecting G219 as it was until some years ago.

The big question is how and when can India make this move? Can a new thread be started with focused discussions related to this possibility (eventuality?).

Cyrano
BRFite
Posts: 706
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 31 Oct 2020 14:47

Arc'teryx is brand that comes to mind when we talk about extreme cold weather clothing. Arguably of very high quality but uber expensive stuff, popular with rich weekend warriors and outdoor exploration enthusiasts.

They are also a big supplier of cold weather clothing and camping gear etc to the US Army and other forces, police, assault units etc of rich countries. They have a division called LEAF (law enforcement and armed forces) whose prices are even higher when selling to Govts.

Designed in Canada, but mfgd in China, Bangladesh and other countries.

So the irony would be providing our troops with super expensive imported gear from US but made in China to fight the Chinese on Indian borders!

While emergency purchases are somewhat understandable, no reason they or similar such brands can't be mfgd in India for long term to bring down costs significantly and for export.

vnadendla
BRFite
Posts: 150
Joined: 09 Mar 2006 00:40
Location: USA

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby vnadendla » 31 Oct 2020 15:43

Cyrano wrote:...,,

While emergency purchases are somewhat understandable, no reason they or similar such brands can't be mfgd in India for long term to bring down costs significantly and for export.


What is stopping (the General) you from setting it up? If you make a POC you can raise funds and market it.

Cyrano
BRFite
Posts: 706
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 31 Oct 2020 17:32

I have some other pots on the fire at the moment. What about you sir ?

Added later: My old friends at "wildcraft" are pioneers in India in this field. Perhaps they're listening... Check them out at https://wildcraft.com

Mods: Perhaps we need to have an Atmanirbhar Bharat thread in one of our forums.

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3102
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshan » 31 Oct 2020 18:53

Cyrano wrote:Added later: My old friends at "wildcraft" are pioneers in India in this field. Perhaps they're listening... Check them out at https://wildcraft.com

Mods: Perhaps we need to have an Atmanirbhar Bharat thread in one of our forums.

There's a thread of that was created during an incarnation of previous effort to make things in India. I have bookmarked this company. I'll be buying things for them while donating clothes this year.

YashG
BRFite
Posts: 193
Joined: 22 Apr 2017 00:10

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby YashG » 31 Oct 2020 20:12

I see a bit of hot handles here on cold weather eqpt. Mods earlier said we shud get over with all this cold weather kit. I'd request the same. Its such a small fry. Cold weather eqpt is not a strategic piece. I bet if Indians had to make this in India - making cold weather apparel/boots atleast is 2 weeks job - end to end. Stitching small batches of apparel in India happens all the time. Indeed many Indian apparel mfg facilties do small batches better than Chinese factories. We should move over to other things on this thread.

rpartha
BRFite
Posts: 119
Joined: 24 Sep 2016 00:04

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby rpartha » 01 Nov 2020 00:18

Cain Marko wrote:


Sridharji, I think you are bang on target here. And the first post above captures it:
B has to be taken. That will put paid to a lot of Chinese ambitions.
China's latest moves in Ladakh have to be seen from its necessity to secure GB. It is not merely protecting G219 as it was until some years ago.

The big question is how and when can India make this move? Can a new thread be started with focused discussions related to this possibility (eventuality?).


Sridhar, Cain - it ain't going to be easy... because whatever India is going to do in GB, will be seen through the prism of Allies (I.e. US group) which will swiftly bring other countries into play apart from China... Russia wouldn't want a US ally entering into central Asia... it's not just about Pakistan anymore- it is about access to Central Asia and even keeping Afghan's Hope alive... too many variables...

rpartha
BRFite
Posts: 119
Joined: 24 Sep 2016 00:04

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby rpartha » 01 Nov 2020 00:22

^^ but now we can confidently keep Baluchistan and GB active - making it very active... How desperate Myanmar wants to open up for other countries apart from China? Sri Lanka strategically lost its sell by date when they gave the port away to China... i think we dont need to keep them happy if the cost is very high... need to keep Bangaladesh and Myanmar in check though....

AdityaM
BRFite
Posts: 1982
Joined: 30 Sep 2002 11:31
Location: New Delhi

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby AdityaM » 01 Nov 2020 06:05

All talk here of India doing anything in GB is the same hot air as the talk of India marching into Lhasa in the starting days of this thread. You can't have such grand plans when you are making emergency purchases of rifles and clothing to fulfill basic needs.

Uri & Balakot had set the bar for Indian response in the event of pak terror misadventure. And pakis have probably paused on account of that.
Chinese actions have ensured that India may no longer have a viable Uri/balakot kind of response ready for future Paki mischief. The escalation matrix now to such a response is no longer as predictable or manageable.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 01 Nov 2020 09:36

AdityaM wrote:All talk here of India doing anything in GB is the same hot air as the talk of India marching into Lhasa in the starting days of this thread. You can't have such grand plans when you are making emergency purchases of rifles and clothing to fulfill basic needs.

Uri & Balakot had set the bar for Indian response in the event of pak terror misadventure. And pakis have probably paused on account of that.
Chinese actions have ensured that India may no longer have a viable Uri/balakot kind of response ready for future Paki mischief. The escalation matrix now to such a response is no longer as predictable or manageable.

While India may or may not have plans for GB, I don't know either ways, Indian forces but specifically IAF has stated multiple times that they are ready for 2 front war. Now for a force that is ready for a 2 front war, a Balakot type response is no big deal.

The escalation matrix does not get any more complicated than what it already was with Baki having nukes. China factor in the form of CPEC and its involvement/investment in propping bakistan has been a constant for many years preceding Uri/Balakot. Nothing has changed.

We tend to over analyze and over complicate matters.

OTOH, that India did not rollover to the Chinese aggression on the LAC but gave it back in kinds will play negatively on the baki mind, not that it is going to change their calculation much.

Plus, the next response to a Phulwama or an Uri might not be strictly a "balakot" but something else, probably something nearer to what forced bakis to return Abhinandan pronto.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 24189
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SSridhar » 01 Nov 2020 10:39

rpartha wrote: . . . Allies (I.e. US group) which will swiftly bring other countries into play apart from China...

rpartha, didn't get you. Are you saying that the 'Allies' would encourage China to stop India from getting back its own territory, an act that would only help the Allies' goal of materially degrading Chinese power? And, who could the other countries be?
Russia wouldn't want a US ally entering into central Asia...

We are also a Russian ally. Besides, China is already at Russia's border and very uncomfortably all over that place, even claiming Kazakhastan & Kyrgystan all because some 7th CE Tang Emperor occupied these places and called himself 'Khan of Khans'.
too many variables...

Always the case in International Relationship. Cannot be deterred by that.

banrjeer
BRFite
Posts: 351
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 14:39

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby banrjeer » 01 Nov 2020 11:27

CalvinH wrote:
darshhan wrote:
The reason will be surprising to you. It is India's antiquated arms act. Only a fool will undertake serious trekking or hiking activities in himalayas being unarmed. The lower to middle ranges are heavily forested as are the valleys and these abound in wild animals. Even in higher reaches you could find predatory species such as snow leopards. If you are unarmed you are taking a very big risk.
A word of sincere advice for the aspiring trekkers and hikers. Do check with with your trekking group whether the guides have weapons or not.


You are very wrong here. Just check the videos of solo travelers and hikers around the world and none of them carry a gun. There are many others tools to scare the animal away or keep them away. You don’t have to fight or kill them to keep yourself safe.

That snow leopard mention must be joke. I am sure people would camp just to be able to watch them.


snow leopards are extremely rare and nearly extinct. Wildlife Photographers have to wait for years to get a glimpse and capture footage. Campers don't carry guns for fear of wildlife. Then US is the most gun friendly country on earth. But guns are not used during camping but for self protection from other humans and for hunting.

rpartha
BRFite
Posts: 119
Joined: 24 Sep 2016 00:04

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby rpartha » 01 Nov 2020 11:34

AdityaM wrote:All talk here of India doing anything in GB is the same hot air as the talk of India marching into Lhasa in the starting days of this thread. You can't have such grand plans when you are making emergency purchases of rifles and clothing to fulfill basic needs.

Uri & Balakot had set the bar for Indian response in the event of pak terror misadventure. And pakis have probably paused on account of that.
Chinese actions have ensured that India may no longer have a viable Uri/balakot kind of response ready for future Paki mischief. The escalation matrix now to such a response is no longer as predictable or manageable.


Are you suggesting that India has absolutely no hand in what's going on in Balu and GB... I dont want to further aay on this as BRF has strict guidelines on these items... even something mildly going on during Cong govt and now MAD is in charge... so I will leave it to your imagination...

On your second point - Chinese actions will not stop India from attacking Pakis if they try any more Uri or Pulwama... I am 100% sure... in fact it has even more emboldened India...

rpartha
BRFite
Posts: 119
Joined: 24 Sep 2016 00:04

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby rpartha » 01 Nov 2020 11:53

SSridhar wrote:
rpartha wrote: . . . Allies (I.e. US group) which will swiftly bring other countries into play apart from China...

rpartha, didn't get you. Are you saying that the 'Allies' would encourage China to stop India from getting back its own territory, an act that would only help the Allies' goal of materially degrading Chinese power? And, who could the other countries be?
Russia wouldn't want a US ally entering into central Asia...

We are also a Russian ally. Besides, China is already at Russia's border and very uncomfortably all over that place, even claiming Kazakhastan & Kyrgystan all because some 7th CE Tang Emperor occupied these places and called himself 'Khan of Khans'.
too many variables...

Always the case in International Relationship. Cannot be deterred by that.


Sorry for not being clear... I am putting India in US group and for the time being let's say they are the Allies. So any move by India towards GB will bring other Geopolitical pressure from countries - not just China but others who are inimical towards US entering Central Asia - in this case Iran or Russia... we have to assume that if India attacks GB, then it will have blessings of US. Again, India has it's own independent foreign policy but that does not mean that we can attack GB without taking few of our allies into confident... So in future, Russia or Iran wont look at it as just a border issue between Pak-India.

Yes Russia is Indias ally - but for the time being... the Russia China relationship is interesting... will Russia play second fiddle to China - I doubt it but given lack of option and its economic status - Germany was willing to deal with Russia but the reaction from Germany on the killing of Russian opponent is a surprise... similarly other challenges are there for Russia in Europe, Suadi- Israel-UAE is a powerful axis with US that leaves only minor players in mid east for Russia.. same thing in south america and Africa... Russia dont have the economic power so it needs tie up... so far India was buying from Russis - but with US equation - how much more will be question? That leaves room for China - Russia relationship... Russia may not like it but not sure what choice they have...

Again, as I said too many variables - it will play out in the next decade...

Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6617
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Dilbu » 01 Nov 2020 12:02

India-China ties under ‘severe stress’, LAC changes unacceptable: Jaishankar
Noting that relations with China had remained stable for three decades, he said peace and tranquillity on the border had allowed the two sides to expand cooperation in other domains. “But as the pandemic unfolded, the relationship has come under severe stress,” he said.

“To restore normalcy, agreements between the two countries must be respected scrupulously in their entirety. Where the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is concerned, any attempt to unilaterally change the status quo is unacceptable,” Jaishankar said.

“The relationship cannot be immune to changes in the assumptions that underpinned it. Large civilisational states re-emerging in close proximity will not have naturally easy ties. Their interests are best served by a sustained engagement based on mutual respect and mutual sensitivity,” he added.

“Underlying it is, of course, a basic willingness to fully recognise the challenges that the nation faces. By playing down issues like cross-border terrorism or competitive geopolitics, there has been a tendency to look away from the hard choices. In a more difficult world, that is going to be less possible,” Jaishankar noted.

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4059
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nam » 01 Nov 2020 14:14

It is been constantly said that this is the first time Chinese are getting deployed in winter.

It boggles my mind, that we never bothered to re-captured the areas lost in 62, when the were no Chinese guarding the place :roll:

The Chinese get away with what they do, because our idiocy. We seems to be acting whiter than white.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 01 Nov 2020 17:46

We did not want 2 active borders.

Till the latest Chinese gambit on the LAC, Modi's India was satisfied with status quo on the "altered" LAC that IT has inherited in 2014!!! Is that a surprise? Not really. Modi's India and every GOI before it wanted to avoid having to confront China on the Land.

Even now India is willing to live with pre- March/April status quo and that status quo will NOT be the 1962 status quo but an "altered" version of the 1962 LAC. That again is not a surprise.

Forget China, even with Bakistan, till very recently, India was willing to live with the current LOC provided there peace at the LOC and no terrorism push into J&K/India. Modi's India might still be willing to live with the LOC for all we know.

I am surprised that people are surprised.

Guddu
BRFite
Posts: 991
Joined: 01 Dec 2008 06:22

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Guddu » 01 Nov 2020 19:36

Sir, getting back GB is a stated position of the BJP and its ministers. This will happen militarily. Aksai Chin will be negotiated after we get back GB, at which point China will have no reason to not negotiate.

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3102
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshan » 01 Nov 2020 19:46

pankajs wrote:Even now India is willing to live with pre- March/April status quo and that status quo will NOT be the 1962 status quo but an "altered" version of the 1962 LAC. That again is not a surprise.

Forget China, even with Bakistan, till very recently, India was willing to live with the current LOC provided there peace at the LOC and no terrorism push into J&K/India. Modi's India might still be willing to live with the LOC for all we know.

I am surprised that people are surprised.

Why would Modi believe that neighbors will keep their word? Not even Nepal will. Modi who has seen enemies up close and how they work even inside India, it sounds foolish that he believes that any border settlement on LoC will bring peace.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 01 Nov 2020 19:54

darshan wrote:
pankajs wrote:Even now India is willing to live with pre- March/April status quo and that status quo will NOT be the 1962 status quo but an "altered" version of the 1962 LAC. That again is not a surprise.

Forget China, even with Bakistan, till very recently, India was willing to live with the current LOC provided there peace at the LOC and no terrorism push into J&K/India. Modi's India might still be willing to live with the LOC for all we know.

I am surprised that people are surprised.

Why would Modi believe that neighbors will keep their word? Not even Nepal will. Modi who has seen enemies up close and how they work even inside India, it sounds foolish that he believes that any border settlement on LoC will bring peace.

1. Modi GOI's initial stand on LAC standoff was to restore status quo ante, perhaps still is.
2. Modi has offered a hand of friendship to Nawaz/Bakistan in his own style. Perhaps then he was still willing to let LOC be IFFF peace was assured in J&K, etc.

There are all in public domain. Modi may not believe them but was willing to live with the current border configuration, at least in the short-term.

The above is clear enough answer to the question "Why India never attempted to re-capture the territory lost in 1962?"

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14734
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 01 Nov 2020 20:01

Guddu wrote:Sir, getting back GB is a stated position of the BJP and its ministers. This will happen militarily. Aksai Chin will be negotiated after we get back GB, at which point China will have no reason to not negotiate.

AND getting back Aksai Chin too is a stated position of GOI but also Modi's GOI in the parliament. Why then it is willing to settle for "status quo ante" on the LAC right now?

Logical question no given your very logical point on BJP's stated position. Btw, Aksai Chin's importance to China is independent of GB.

darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3102
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshan » 01 Nov 2020 22:16

pankajs wrote:There are all in public domain. Modi may not believe them but was willing to live with the current border configuration, at least in the short-term.

The above is clear enough answer to the question "Why India never attempted to re-capture the territory lost in 1962?"

Information is public and you have also stated before. What I'm going towards is why Modi may have been heading in that direction. Is he more of a gandhi believer? Or does he believe more in others like Patel?

We can at least believe that he's not naive enough to believe that there will be peace by border settlement as there was none after the division of country.

Was Modi counting on short term solution based on other side not keeping the word and use it to India's advantage? Or was Modi hoping to do the same to them once India changed at the ground level? Or something else based on the presumption that the word won't be kept.

SriKumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2059
Joined: 27 Feb 2006 07:22
Location: sarvatra

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SriKumar » 01 Nov 2020 23:56

nam wrote:It is been constantly said that this is the first time Chinese are getting deployed in winter.

It boggles my mind, that we never bothered to re-captured the areas lost in 62, when the were no Chinese guarding the place :
One could argue that this is exactly what JAwaharlal Nehru did with his 'forward policy' where he had Indian troops stationed close to the McMAhon line and sometimes forward of it into China, to stop the steady occupation of Indian land by Chinese forces. What happend was China took stock of the situation, built up resources and attacked at a time of their choosing. And JLN got the bad press on having a 'forward policy' approach without adequate prepartion for a full-scale war.

If India wanted to re-capture any area lost in 1962, India would HAVE to prepare for an eventual war at the time of decision to re-capture, whether OR NOT a war would acutally materialize. The good news with this situation would have been that India would have had many more mountain divisions and strike corps than what India has now. The bad is news that the defnece spending would have to be significantly more than what is it today and this would have started at the time of occupation (years/decades of high defence spending). This is a bad choice on all fronts, and for a peaceful GOI focussed on economic development and heavy fiscal corruption this would have an easy decision to make.....i.e. let sleeping dogs lie, we make our money, nation makes progress. All are happy.

A version of the situation you alluded to in terms of re-capture has now arrived at India's doorstep- in my opinion, this was inveitable and only a matter of time. GOI has to figure out (am sure they did) ALL the various scenarios on how this will end, including the use of Agni V (no tests yet....). I hope there is a silver lining to all this. (And, it is WELL past due date for a third round of app bans and trade sanctions. Why is GOI OK with continuing trade at current levels with China? ).

Guddu
BRFite
Posts: 991
Joined: 01 Dec 2008 06:22

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Guddu » 02 Nov 2020 02:01

pankajs wrote:
Guddu wrote:Sir, getting back GB is a stated position of the BJP and its ministers. This will happen militarily. Aksai Chin will be negotiated after we get back GB, at which point China will have no reason to not negotiate.

AND getting back Aksai Chin too is a stated position of GOI but also Modi's GOI in the parliament. Why then it is willing to settle for "status quo ante" on the LAC right now?

Logical question no given your very logical point on BJP's stated position. Btw, Aksai Chin's importance to China is independent of GB.


Taking back GB is a challenge, one of the factors that we will consider is that China has invested in CPEC, even though that is not enough for us to not take back GB.. However, once GB is taken back and it is fait accompli, the major concern that remains for China is their highway that runs thro Aksai Chin, which they will want to protect.

I thinking fighting Pak for GB, vs fighting China for Aksai Chin have different probabilities of success and the amount of blood shed that will need to occur. I dont anticipate GOI going to war with China over Aksai Chin, but I do anticipate negotiations over Aksai Chin if we can get GB.

Ashokk
BRFite
Posts: 691
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Ashokk » 02 Nov 2020 04:31

58 Years After 1962, Aggressor China Up Against A Resolute India Along LAC


China Restive As India Connects Ladakh Better


Return to “Military Issues & History Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: brar_w, Kakarat, manjgu and 97 guests