India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Karan M » 13 Nov 2020 06:06

Cyrano wrote:
For many years, worthies on this forum posited that Pak is nuke-nood. The best they can muster is pav-kilo dirty bombs. But given our subtle doctrine evolutions in recent times, they will not dare go there. They WILL NOT escalate unconventionally since that would lead to obliteration. They WILL NOT go into to conventional war because the Pak Generals know their Army is a hollow shell in terms of war fighting capability and has ZERO will to fight. Those fat Generals just want to retire with moolah embezzled from Pak population and go join their children in UK/US and run pizza chains.


What is the plan if PRC hands over more nukes to Pak and decides to fight India to the last Pakistani?

This theory that "if we retaliate disproportionately, rabid hordes and suicidal battalions from Pak will attack India which we cannot deal with, therefore we should wince and bear this endless constant low intensity proxy war" is, IMVHO, just hogwash.


Who has made this argument? On BR at least.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshhan » 13 Nov 2020 09:21

nam wrote:Response like balakot will probably happen once in a decade, even if it involves missiles.

On the other hand, fighting on LoC happens every day. Our opportunity to increase the cost happens every day.

Unfortunately for us, we are still carrying out 20th century battle on loc with artillery and mortar rounds which doesn't hit anything worthwhile.

Instead of firing missiles at pjndi and isloo target PA artillery and positions with precision ammo on loc, everyday.


You are wrong on this one. Our artillery and mortar teams are sufficiently trained.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby aditp » 13 Nov 2020 13:24

shyamd wrote:
aditp wrote:https://indianexpress.com/article/india/china-proposes-pullback-at-pangong-india-considers-offer-7048438/

This article says that tings are still at the proposal stage. Proposal mooted by the Chinese Maj Gen in one to one talks with the IA XIV Corps Commander. We are still to consider the proposal and respond to the offer!

Was it perhaps the results of quiet covert diplomacy with Beijing at the highest levels?

Most probably the news of agreement may have been dropped by the noodle dalals to put pressure on the IA and GOI. It could even be an intentional leak by the GoI to gauge public opinion and contain any adverse fallout on the govt image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 13 Nov 2020 16:15

Gobar Times : Indian media's reports on detailed border disengagement plan with China 'inaccurate': sources

Indian media's reports that detailed arrangements for a proposed disengagement plan are being discussed and finalized by Chinese and Indian militaries are inaccurate and not helpful for the two sides to reach their established goals, the Global Times has learned from sources.

Times of India reported on Thursday that China and India have "broadly agreed to pull-back troops, tanks, howitzers and armored vehicles from 'friction points' in the Pangong Tso-Chushul area in eastern Ladakh."

The media also cited a source as saying that the "exact modalities and sequencing of steps" as well as the joint verification process for the proposed disengagement plan are "being discussed and finalized" by the two armies as a follow-up to the eighth round of corps commander level talks on November 6.

The "disengagement plan" reported by Indian media includes: The People's Liberation Army troops will withdraw to their positions east ofFinger-8 areas from their current position of Finger 4 on the north bank of Pangong Tso lake while the Indian troops will withdraw to their post between Fingers 2 and 3. The area between Finger 4 and 8 will be a non-patrol area. Around 30 percent of troops will be withdrawn every day for three days.

The onset of the brutal winter, which is exacting a toll on the thousands of rival soldiers deployed in altitudes of over 15,000 feet, also seems to have made China "more agreeable" to de-escalation, the Times of India wrote.

However, the Global Times learned from sources on Thursday that while the momentum brought by the eighth round of corps commander talk is good, the "disengagement plan" mentioned by the media is "not accurate."

Some Indian media outlets are good at projecting India's tough stance through partially true and partially false information, with the aim of stirring up domestic nationalism, sources told the Global Times.

The Global Times has learned that whether the disengagement of troops starts from southern or northern of Pangong Tso Lake, how to withdraw and with how many troops were key topics during the previous rounds of talks.

The sources told the Global Times that India has always had "unrealistic" ideas about the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and disregarded history, unilaterally believing that Fingers 4 to 8 are its patrolling areas, and has sought to gain bargaining chips in talks by fishing for interests in the disputed border area.

"This is the wrong premise for some India people in drafting policies," the sources said.


Qian Feng, director of the research department at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University, told the Global Times that the disengagement plan mentioned by Indian media is the media's self-interpretation about the outcome of previous talks between the two sides. But it also to some extent reveals the actual unilateral thought of Indian militaries.

However, it cannot represent the result the two sides have reached, nor will it be the final plan, Qian said.

Qian noted that as it is Diwali, the most important festival in Hinduism, sources in India gave information on the so-called disengagement plan to the public via media to pressure China as well as relieve the pressure on the Indians. :rotfl:

The Indian military's eagerness is understandable, as the weather in the stand-off area has become colder and it faces great pressure in ensuring logistical supplies. But this kind of "tip-off" is not good for the two sides to implement the consensus reached in previous rounds of talks, and could mislead opinion, Qian said.

China and India have had candid exchanges on key issues of the disengagement plan, including where to start and how many troops should be pulled back. The two sides have different demands but are gradually reaching consensus, and both have made efforts and sent positive signals to the outside world, Qian said.

But Indian media's reports also verify that after the eighth round of talks, China and India are detailing plans to solve the border issues in accordance with the consensus reached by the top leaders.

"The two sides are working in the same direction to solve the problem and also have reached some consensus," Qian noted.

China and India issued a joint release on November 6 after the talks, which noted, "Both sides agreed to maintain dialogue and communication through military and diplomatic channels, and, taking forward the discussions at this meeting, push for the settlement of other outstanding issues, so as to jointly maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas."

Qian pointed out that although the release did not mention "disengagement" between the two militaries, the "other outstanding issues" mentioned in the release obviously refers to the disengagement issue.

On September 4, defense ministers from China and India held talks in Moscow, during which Wei Fenghe, China's Defense Minister, said that the reasons and truth behind the current tense border situation between China and India are very clear, and the responsibility lies entirely with the Indian side. China will not lose one inch of its territory and the military has the resolution, capability and confidence to safeguard the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 13 Nov 2020 16:28

Karan M wrote:What is the plan if PRC hands over more nukes to Pak and decides to fight India to the last Pakistani?

Is it that easy? Just ship some nukes by DHL and Pakis will light them up like Diwali rockets? :D
Our current N-policy is not just oriented towards western neighbour.

I wrote: "This theory that "if we retaliate disproportionately, rabid hordes and suicidal battalions from Pak will attack India which we cannot deal with, therefore we should wince and bear this endless constant low intensity proxy war" is, IMVHO, just hogwash."
Who has made this argument? On BR at least.

I'm referring to what you wrote Karan ji:
But a nation of Paks side, as radicalized as it is, has a huge number of potential terrorists and light infantry tactics for suicide attacks are easy to teach.

If a Paki Gernail is reading this, he would be quite delighted that the proxy war and radicalised momins everywhere strategy is indeed quite successful in making India wary of taking any retaliatory action, and would double down on it.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 13 Nov 2020 16:53

Irrespective of the rhetoric adopted by Pak establishment, they are very well aware of the cleanup AS is doing in J&K, and the enormous amount of development effort being put in by GoI. DDC elections are scheduled for Nov28th, and a new wave of political activity will begin, and if all goes well, J&K will be set on a path to normalcy. Support to jehadi groups is dwindling as it is, and sometime in 2021 statehood is restored J&K will be just like any other state in India. Game over.

J&K people enjoying benefits of good governance and freedom will make PoK & G-B residents wise up and demand changes to status quo and worse : seek to become part of India as a unified J&K state.

From Pak establishment PoV, years of investment and Kashmir centricity will come to naught in the coming months if this happens. I don't expect them to sit back and cheer. They will try to use vested interests like the Gupkar group and other sleeper cells of muslim radicals from within and make a fresh infusion of radicals, jihadis, fake currency, arms & explosives via tunnels, drones, BAT teams - they will throw everything at it in a last ditch effort to destabilise the process and save their "raison d'être".

Therefore, it is not enough for India to raise high fences along the border and invest in developing J&K and winning over all of its people with the promise of a better future. The root of the problem lies across the border. Unless the Pak Establishment's back is broken, there will not be lasting peace. Whether its missile strikes, surgical strikes, air strikes, lucky strikes - it doesnt matter. We cannot eliminate their pathological obsession to destroy India through destroying Kashmir. We can eliminate their capabilities & will to attempt such a thing in the future. Thats what I'm calling for, NOW.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby shyamd » 13 Nov 2020 17:32

Well it looks like there are problems with the Chinese proposal. IA is saying that the no mans land between F-4 and 8 means that Indian patrolling rights is denied i.e. not really returning to status quo. Depsang is another issue where PLA are stopping Indian patrolling rights and isn't covered under the PLA proposal.

Sounds like there are factions coming out to play here.

---------------------------------------
The other interesting thing is GOI, Paris and Aussies are creating a new framework for Indian Ocean separate to the Quad (US/Aus/Ind/Jap) grouping. All three have agreed to join hands. Paris is promising ISR, Rafale, Submarines + cash support. Aussies have bought french subs. Shringla visit to capital said GOI is worried Gwadar and Hambantota can quickly be converted into a naval facility in the future.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby jamwal » 13 Nov 2020 17:58

https://twitter.com/VishnuNDTV/status/1 ... 9853042688

How did he get this video? Seems like footage from a CCTV camera.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Deans » 13 Nov 2020 18:04

RaviB wrote:
jamwal wrote:Apologies in advance for silly question.
Are there any locations in Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh where Chinese land forces can pose serious threat to Indian positions? I understand that the terrain is extremely difficult even in best of times and a land assault will be a long and bloody affair for invading PLA.


I'm no expert but on the Chinese side, I've often heard Medog county (part of Nyingchi prefecture) in Tibet spoken of as a dagger pointed at India. The county was only connected by road in 1970s and since 2010 has a road that's open year round and supports military vehicles. It's the area opposite Tuting and Bishing in Arunachal Pradesh. I don't know if this is a credible threat though.


Its easier (based on my amateur study of google earth, for my book) for our mountain infantry to interdict that road (and attack Nyingchi Manling airfield), than it is for the Chinese to use that road to invade Central Arunachal. The G-318 highway - the only road in the area for East-West movement, is also vulnerable.

China can pose a serious threat if they violate Nepal's airspace to target IAF airfields. I don't think our ground Radar/ AWAC and SAM coverage will take into account an ingress from Nepal. It's not about being shortsighted - we don't have the resources to defend everything. The only thing mitigating against this is that the location of their airfields - which means a detour to fly over Nepal. However, 2 PLAAF airfields near the Nepal border - near Purang and Tingri, which can be expanded to operate fighters will, in my opinion be a formidable threat.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby jamwal » 13 Nov 2020 18:43

You seem to be right. I've been poring over available data and maps for some time. There are barely any usable routes for PLA to exploit without complete air superiority. Their supply lines are longer, pass through much difficult terrain, altitude is higher at their side and 4000-7000 m high Himalayas play role of natural barrier. Large scale troop movement is extremely difficult.

I don't remember reading any action in this sector in your book. Am I right or forgetting something? Vivek Ahuja had written about invasion of Bhutan and fight up to Paro (or was it Thimpu).

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby sooraj » 13 Nov 2020 19:03

@drapr007
·
19m
#BREAKING : Atleast 40 Pak Soldiers & terrorists hv been eliminated while 16 Paki posts,2 fuel storages,2 ammunition dump & 4 terrorist launchpads destroyed in ongoing retaliatory action of IA along the LoC.
As usual, Pak army will accept these casualties after 8 yrs like Kargil.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby sooraj » 13 Nov 2020 19:03

FrontalForce
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10m
If Reports are to be believed, some readjustment has happened on LoC. Important peaks are tricoloured now.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby sooraj » 13 Nov 2020 19:05

FrontalForce
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39m
Pak Armymen wearing Burqa to hide from Indian Army on LoC.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Manish_P » 13 Nov 2020 19:29

Lot's of fireworks at the LAC. The boys are celebrating Deepawali with gusto!

May the Gods and the prayers of their families and fellow Indians grant them success and protect them.

Namo has a way with words. He can really connect with his audience.

Narendra Modi @narendramodi·
1h

This Diwali, let us also light a Diya as a #Salute2Soldiers who fearlessly protect our nation. Words can’t do justice to the sense of gratitude we have for our soldiers for their exemplary courage. We are also grateful to the families of those on the borders.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby shyamd » 13 Nov 2020 19:42

One should build a sequence of events on the LoC. IA/BSF soldiers were ambushed by BAT team a few days. Artillery from TSPA today resulting in further casualties.
Today's artillery strikes by IA over a number of sectors on fixed TSPA sites is a continuation of IA's SOP used throughout 2020. This is aimed to send a message of resolve and readiness to go up the escalatory ladder.

In my view IA would have to go for stronger action than what has been undertaken in the days ahead if they are to deter BATs. These strikes would have to be combined with other ground moves. If anything, it would be a good time to test the position of Biden if GOI undertake some limited action.

It is quite possible TSPA are forcing the hand of IA.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Nihat » 13 Nov 2020 19:53

We must look to leverage areas where we have clear superiority against the pukes. The use of stand off weapons like pinaka, air strikes from stand off range, targeting deeper and deeper into pok and increasing the body count of the officer class which cannot be hidden.

The losses absolutely need to pile up and air and drones should be activated. Any land we can grab is very very valuable.

Ofc the local population hostile to India must be handled appropriately

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Ambar » 13 Nov 2020 20:12

Its a lot more serious than what is being reported. The pakis as expected have been emboldened and made yet another attempt to push militants using their SSG BAT, after taking loses it looks like they have resorted to artillery . Sadly we've lost 6 soldiers today, 5 from Army, 1 from BSF and 10 civilian deaths. Are they purposefully keeping the border hot to give China space for mischief ? Who knows..but i wouldn't be surprised if that's the case.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby jamwal » 13 Nov 2020 20:23

If Pakis do mischief at sector A, they expect Indian army to retaliate. So if they manage to do something inciting like the ambush yesterday, they will empty out their positions in anticipation. I am pretty sure that Indian army now hits point A, B, C, D and lobs a few shells at E too. This scale and intensity of fire needs to increase a few times. If they try mischief in Rajauri, their posts in Poonch and Uri should face the music too.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Karan M » 13 Nov 2020 21:28

Ambar wrote:Its a lot more serious than what is being reported. The pakis as expected have been emboldened and made yet another attempt to push militants using their SSG BAT, after taking loses it looks like they have resorted to artillery . Sadly we've lost 6 soldiers today, 5 from Army, 1 from BSF and 10 civilian deaths. Are they purposefully keeping the border hot to give China space for mischief ? Who knows..but i wouldn't be surprised if that's the case.


This happens whenever there is a change of guard at Washington or they feel emboldened thinking they have a chance to raise trouble.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Deans » 13 Nov 2020 21:47

jamwal wrote:You seem to be right. I've been poring over available data and maps for some time. There are barely any usable routes for PLA to exploit without complete air superiority. Their supply lines are longer, pass through much difficult terrain, altitude is higher at their side and 4000-7000 m high Himalayas play role of natural barrier. Large scale troop movement is extremely difficult.

I don't remember reading any action in this sector in your book. Am I right or forgetting something? Vivek Ahuja had written about invasion of Bhutan and fight up to Paro (or was it Thimpu).


Jamwal ji you're right. Also, the altitude on their side is higher than ours, making them more vulnerable to high altitude problem from sustained operations in Tibet.
No action in Nepal / Bhutan in my book, except a bit of Doklam. The book has the Royal Bhutanese army allying with us (we have an agreement
to help Bhutan if asked to do so) and Gorkha SF, exfiltrating into Nepal after completing a mission in Tibet.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Anujan » 13 Nov 2020 21:49

Could also be domestic

Bajwa had to downhill ski after arresting Nawaz Sharif's son-in-law. Apparently those rangers and ISI goons were "removed" (given big plots in Punjab and resettled with a big pension).

First time Army has downhill ski-ed after picking up a fight with politicians.

They have to do something to distract the awam.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby chetak » 13 Nov 2020 22:48

jamwal wrote:https://twitter.com/VishnuNDTV/status/1327214089853042688

How did he get this video? Seems like footage from a CCTV camera.


the IA gives it to the journos.

there is no other source allowed that close to the border

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 13 Nov 2020 23:11

ToI has several such arty strike videos on its website.

Yeh Dil Mangey MORE !!!

Sadgati to our brave jawans who gave their lives for the nation.
Last edited by Cyrano on 14 Nov 2020 00:09, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby jamwal » 13 Nov 2020 23:19

I meant how did they manage to such such closeup footage

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Picklu » 13 Nov 2020 23:57

After Balakot, lot of folks (including me), mentioned that Military should provide proof and without proof the job is not done. This is not because we distrust our military but because it is important to tell the world that Justice has been done. The punishment has to be mated out in public to uplift the moral of the nation and break the will of enemy.

The message had hit home it seems. Expect to see such videos and proof going forward. Our forces, going forward, won't shoot with arms alone, they would shoot with recording devices too and release that for public consumption.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Mort Walker » 14 Nov 2020 00:22

Picklu wrote:After Balakot, lot of folks (including me), mentioned that Military should provide proof and without proof the job is not done. This is not because we distrust our military but because it is important to tell the world that Justice has been done. The punishment has to be mated out in public to uplift the moral of the nation and break the will of enemy.

The message had hit home it seems. Expect to see such videos and proof going forward. Our forces, going forward, won't shoot with arms alone, they would shoot with recording devices too and release that for public consumption.


No GoI organization works that way not IA, IAF, IN or ISRO for that matter. I do trust what these government entities say at the upper level more than governments in other countries.

The IA is there to protect the borders and people of India. However I do feel that even in this pandemic, those who are serving on the front lines need to have their Dearness Allowance restored and their families financially compensated.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nam » 14 Nov 2020 02:31

Finally someone in IA/GoI has learnt the value of "visual warfare". What we really need to do is a visual campaign of targeting PA artillery position, providing the justification of targeting units killing civilians on our side.

Should have done it long back.

Imagine a number of videos of loitering drone plunging down on PA artillery guys busy firing.. Or PGM strikes on mortar teams, duly recorded by UAV.

Sigh.. the tech has been available for year...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Roop » 14 Nov 2020 07:07

Mort Walker wrote:No GoI organization works that way ...


I don't know what you mean by "works that way"; you are trying to refute something Picklu said, but it's not clear what.

IAC, I agree with Picklu -- GoI appears to have finally realized the importance of some healthy PR. Not lies, mind you, nothing but the truth but at least sufficient quantities of the truth to keep public morale high. (And in fact, not just public morale as in "civilians/ jingos", but also the military personnel from other arms/services who were not directly involved in this specific action. They too watch TV / social media and deserve to have their morale upheld). And I agree with Nam too.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Mort Walker » 14 Nov 2020 08:28

^^^That is a lot of operational details could be gleaned from videos, albeit short, by the enemy or adversaries. It is the reason so few videos make it out to the general press. They are now, and I'm certainly happy, but if they didn't - I would still accept the GoI's description of events.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshhan » 14 Nov 2020 08:39

jamwal wrote:I meant how did they manage to such such closeup footage


Forward observers/Ghataks/special forces with special cameras staying just out of small arms range and calling artillery strikes. That is what I think.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cain Marko » 14 Nov 2020 12:07

One of those videos even had a TSP flying over the bunker before it got busted. High time we saw such things...or we'll continue to have "OSINT Experts" and Fair bibi types lecturing us for the foreseeable future..

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby vimal » 14 Nov 2020 12:16

Last edited by vimal on 14 Nov 2020 12:25, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Mort Walker » 14 Nov 2020 12:25

jamwal wrote:I meant how did they manage to such such closeup footage


A spotting scope with a camera mount or smartphone mount. They start at around $500 to $5,000 with Zeiss optics. With a removable adjustable eyepiece, one can easily obtain wide field of view with excellent 25x-50x magnification with minimal distortion or chromatic aberration.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Karan M » 14 Nov 2020 12:46

Cyrano wrote:
Karan M wrote:What is the plan if PRC hands over more nukes to Pak and decides to fight India to the last Pakistani?


Is it that easy? Just ship some nukes by DHL and Pakis will light them up like Diwali rockets? :D
Our current N-policy is not just oriented towards western neighbour.


So you think that missile attacks on Pindi etc won't escalate because Pak is nuke nude and China is going to sit by and watch without passing them ready to mate systems even in that scenario? Unfortunately the GOI and services don't seem to share your belief that Pak and China are two different actors or that all out war be their current preference. What is our current nuke policy btw? Perhaps I missed the part where its about deterrence and no first use regarding Pak, and also the current reality wherein India is currently struggling with a pandemic and war is arguably the last thing on its mind as the GOI is still focused on economic recovery and a gradual build up of the armed forces capabilities. The IAF, IA both have significant gaps and rearmament is still underway. And you want war anyhow, right now.

I wrote: "This theory that "if we retaliate disproportionately, rabid hordes and suicidal battalions from Pak will attack India which we cannot deal with, therefore we should wince and bear this endless constant low intensity proxy war" is, IMVHO, just hogwash."


Who has made this argument? On BR at least.

I'm referring to what you wrote Karan ji:
But a nation of Paks side, as radicalized as it is, has a huge number of potential terrorists and light infantry tactics for suicide attacks are easy to teach.


Then may I suggest that you read it again. What I wrote has little to do what how you misinterpreted it as. Instead, what I pointed out is that your handful of missile attacks will do nothing to stop the flow of terrorists as its very easy to build up a pipeline and also train them. When a huge portion of the entire Pak populace is radicalized, and the training is so easy, do you think that attacking a few pieces of infra in a one off will deter the opponent? They won't care.

If a Paki Gernail is reading this, he would be quite delighted that the proxy war and radicalised momins everywhere strategy is indeed quite successful in making India wary of taking any retaliatory action, and would double down on it.


Au contraire. Paki gernails would be delighted when they read the over the top posts you are making about missile attacks and all out war because they know its empty talk on the forum from folks who have no intention or means of either conducting those attacks or suffering the consequences thereof, hence it comes across as just empty sound and second it has very little likelihood of happening as Delhi has multiple levers of escalation. Its completely unrealistic, especially the way you've drawn up the scenario. There is a good reason the IA, IAF, IN all exist as versus a missile force alone.

Not only is it unrealistic, it allows Pak to do something equally facile for PR and then claim an equal equal, saber rattle about nuke conflict, build up local morale, force international attention and then claim victory. And continue their usual low cost terror policy. Missile attacks are best used against discrete high value targets as part of a proper conflict wherein we have clear targets and more importantly we are prepared for it. Right now, we are still a fair bit away from developing our armed forces fully.

Instead what the Jarnails are worried about is a gradual high pressure policy wherein India uses every lever it possesses - economic, military and sub-conventional to constantly build up pressure on Pak, which is actually what GOI is currently doing. Keeping sub-conventional conflict as an next step and even tempering that so as to allow us to attrit Pak military assets short of an all out war. I understand it may not be as flashy as outright missile attacks but like it or not, that's what the current GOIs policy is.

Vidur
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Vidur » 14 Nov 2020 15:00

I am no longer in RM so I feel able to share a viewpoint.

Attacks by Pakistan on Diwali have been a regular feature. It is driven by their religious beliefs against Kafirs celebrating Diwali. A deep and fundamental fact that we don't seem to understand

Our respomse has been just to match calibre and inflict similar number of casualties that they have over the last few days. There has been no element of punishment for initiating the aggression on our festival. Bunkers made of stone and mud are expendable. Wouldn't they have vacated the bybkers knowing what our standard response is ? Could we have targeted their Brigade HQs , maintaince and logistics areas ?
Artillery can accomplish this without resort to missiles which are seen as escalatory.

Against what parameters should we assess success, how do we measure it ? Equal number of soldiers killed, enemy officers killed, economic damage imposed, deterence effect?

Are we too focused on controlling infiltration rather than imposing costs on Pak army ? Do the OSINT handles on SM giving highly exaggerated accounts of our actions stop us from rational analysis ?

Bureaucracy is often blamed for many of the ills in strategic space and rightly so. But they don't control thr tactical battle. My personal view is that our military leadership is also risk averse along with the bureaucratic and political leadership. Strong military leadership willing to take career risk can achieve a lot

Aditya_V
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Aditya_V » 14 Nov 2020 15:50

Very well said, we should target supply convoys, we must focus on getting real time intelligence, where we must get thier Army supply trucks, Helicopters which have landed within artillery range, artillery pieces etc. Even key bridges, Diesel, ammo storage or key electricity distribution, mobile towers, communication nodes. Perhaps we are doing it, but getting visual proof would be classified compared to hitting visible bunkers. But being a typical bully, the cost must be high enough and miltary capability differential great enough that they feel the need for peace.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 14 Nov 2020 16:27

Karan M ji,
Let me layout the reasoning why my view point has shifted over time from a peace advocating nationalist - I've argued on BR that a peaceful and prosperous Pakistan is good for India against fellow members opining that Pakistan needs to be broken up - to my current position.

Pakistan as a country remains firmly in the grip of its Military Establishment. This goes for its political parties, institutions, and importantly, its radical elements. Gen Zia fuelled the islamic radicalisation of the country as a powerful tool to control its people, though its roots lie in partition, two nation theory and Khilafat movement that predated Zia. By controlling these radical elements who are by definition opposed to education & modernism which are the pillars for development, he could not only maintain ideological and cultural control but also got a free pass for civil and economic control. He and his successors used this power to fund and strengthen the military and by making a Hindu India is enemy No 1 as the justification. The Pak Military has for decades consumed a disproportionate share of resources and through its MoD, Fauji Foundation, MLC etc. have established unchallenged grip on every aspect of the country today. Keeping up their anti India sentiment through the Kashmir cause is central to this strategy. They have managed to keep a strengthening India tentative in dealing with this menace by brandishing nukes and letting unhinged elements spout their rhetoric. So far, I've not said anything you don't already know.

Meanwhile, India has dealt with numerous challenges and in many ways has turned the corner. In terms of economic growth, infrastructure, technology, health care, soft power, diplomacy and of course military power, India is on a trajectory that Pakistan simply cannot match or catch up to. India's rise is an eloquent slap in the face of the radical islamic and anti Hindu rhetoric the Army has been feeding generations of Pakistanis. In the recent years, due to some clear headed thinking by MADJ we have called the Pak bluff on the escalation ladder and have riposted its proxy terror war with surgical strikes. But that did not prevent Uri or Pulwama. Then we did Balakot and have had considerable success on the international scene exposing Pak and have tightened the screws with FATF etc. There has been slight decrease in terror activity in recent times not because Pak has reduced its efforts or has changed its strategy, but because we have significantly stepped up effort to weed out and eliminate jihadis.

India's tolerance levels have decreased but if we are not willing to strike at the root of the problem - Pak Military - we will be seen as still tolerant enough and willing to take some level of terror damage and loss of life as long as its not some big Pulwama type incident. That attitude is exactly the lifeline needed for the proxy war jihadi strategy. Despite our tactical retaliations like what happened yesterday, PA will keep it alive to reassure radicals and anti-india forces that there is still support for them and PA has not given up, and to continue drip feeding their own population on the opiate of the Kashmir cause and anti Hindu - anti India narrative. Heck they have not given up supporting Khalistan after all these years.

The biggest threat to this strategy is not FATF or international opprobrium or economic bankruptcy, their people have been brainwashed for generations into a superiority + victimhood + aggression mentality and will resist all that and "keep the faith" - remember the ghaass bhi khayenge lekin comments? Its very much true even today and will continue. The biggest threat is Kashmir getting on to a path of development, peace and prosperity, and Indian Kashmiris rejecting the separatist narrative in all its forms, and integrating into the rest of a prosperous India. Under the present Govt, for the first time in decades, that seems like a real possibility.

If we believe we have squeezed PA through a variety of high pressure policies, which I agree with, what are we expecting to happen next ? That Pak Establishment will see the futility of their ways and have a change of heart? That they will wean themselves and their population off the anti-India rhetoric and become if not a responsible neighbour at least a non-interfering neighbour? That they will refuse the Chinese call to pay the debt by keeping India occupied on the western border and the most inappropriate of times?

The stakes are high for us, not for PA. If they see years of investment in the proxy war & terror industry coming to a zero result, their ingrained anti-India predicated mindset will push them to risk it all since their "all" is not much. I'm sure PA Generals have learnt a thing or two from their Chinese friends and have made D-day plans should India attack, to escape with moolah and live in comfy exile somewhere. Pizza Papa investments are not an accident or a one off case.

From India's perspective, there will always be a good reason not to attack, a good reason to say "not now". It can be the pandemic, the economy, a bad monsoon, state elections, IPL season (just kidding) or some other reason. Similar reasons have not discouraged our neighbours as you can see.

Here are 5 reasons I believe we should break the back of PA, and do it ASAP:
1. PA for the same reasons cited, is hurting a lot more right now. We have squeezed and weakened the Establishment for the past 5 years, but incremental gains are decreasing and we need to move to the next step.
2. We have a leadership that can make such a decision, succeed in achieving the objectives and recovering from it. Who knows what the fickle electorate will vote for in 2024 ? If a weaker Govt comes into power, we'll be set back by 50 years in just one term.
3. Faced with a strong enemy China supported by its weak ally Pak Army, its better to deal with the weak ally first. Like Jarasandha. Before Pak cedes large swaths of G-B to China under the CPEC sham to save itself from fighting India alone. That would give China a legitimate excuse to intervene, like they would now if we tried to regain Shaksgam valley. PA will do it at some point of time to save themselves.
4. Chinese strategy is based on a soft pliable India. They would not want to get into conflict with an already belligerent India now. But in a few years, if B&RI and CEPC take off to some extent, they haven't given up on it one bit, the stakes will be higher and they may be willing to risk more.
5. India is on a trajectory to become a major power, economically and geo-politically. Unfortunately our neighbours will not let that happen by just sitting back and watching us grow. Or take the proffered hand of friendship by collaborating and sharing the success. If our rise is curtailed in this decade, it will mean another half a century of stagnation. Our neighbours know it.

As we labour the field of our destiny, we have to remove rocks and weeds from our path. The British have left us in a divided, devitalised state akin to Khandvaprastha. After decades of struggle, we are close to making it Indraprastha. So conflict is inevitable at some point. We can shape its contours or be shaped by it. The choice and the responsibility is ours.

I'll come to why missile strikes in a later post. Time to send up some Diwali missiles (crackers) first!

Happy Diwali to all Bharat Rakshaks.

darshhan
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshhan » 14 Nov 2020 19:38

Vidur wrote:I am no longer in RM so I feel able to share a viewpoint.

Attacks by Pakistan on Diwali have been a regular feature. It is driven by their religious beliefs against Kafirs celebrating Diwali. A deep and fundamental fact that we don't seem to understand

Our respomse has been just to match calibre and inflict similar number of casualties that they have over the last few days. There has been no element of punishment for initiating the aggression on our festival. Bunkers made of stone and mud are expendable. Wouldn't they have vacated the bybkers knowing what our standard response is ? Could we have targeted their Brigade HQs , maintaince and logistics areas ?
Artillery can accomplish this without resort to missiles which are seen as escalatory.

Against what parameters should we assess success, how do we measure it ? Equal number of soldiers killed, enemy officers killed, economic damage imposed, deterence effect?

Are we too focused on controlling infiltration rather than imposing costs on Pak army ? Do the OSINT handles on SM giving highly exaggerated accounts of our actions stop us from rational analysis ?

Bureaucracy is often blamed for many of the ills in strategic space and rightly so. But they don't control thr tactical battle. My personal view is that our military leadership is also risk averse along with the bureaucratic and political leadership. Strong military leadership willing to take career risk can achieve a lot


I reached the same conclusion. More focussed on COIN and LoC exchanges. Political leadership of the day will have to give them clear targets. Just leaving the military to do its own thing will not suffice.

shyamd
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby shyamd » 14 Nov 2020 20:27

^^ Reality is more complex - can’t just point at either military, politicians etc in isolation. It’s a system as a whole.. none of it works perfectly.

—————————
The weather on LoC hasn’t worsened which allows TSPA to squeeze in as much arms and supplies into the valley as possible.

TSPAF has started doing CAPs close to LoC. Tanks also sighted.

My view is TSPA has assessed that IA is suffering from shortage of experienced troops on LoC.

kit
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby kit » 14 Nov 2020 20:48

shyamd wrote:^^ Reality is more complex - can’t just point at either military, politicians etc in isolation. It’s a system as a whole.. none of it works perfectly.

—————————
The weather on LoC hasn’t worsened which allows TSPA to squeeze in as much arms and supplies into the valley as possible.

TSPAF has started doing CAPs close to LoC. Tanks also sighted.

My view is TSPA has assessed that IA is suffering from shortage of experienced troops on LoC.


:mrgreen: .. we ll dance and make them bl4ed


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