India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby sudeepj » 22 Nov 2020 23:47

fanne wrote:We have to formulate within our country (overtly or covertly) a policy that only a dead TSP is a good TSP.


The question is, what does a dead TSP mean? IA has already destroyed half of their GDP. Has that meant a dead TSP? The answer is no. Why not? the stories that run Pakistan are still humming. Average Paki still believes them and is willing to organize his life around them. Playing as per that script means attacking India pays dividends in the Army, in the civil society, among mullahs. This dynamic/script needs to change for the 'democratized' freelance/privateer violence export from Pak to India. In effect, this is a war that will be won (or lost) in the mind. If you can change the mental program of the avg Paki, you win.

How to change it? [pick your favorite punishment.] What stops the punishment? [pick your answer] Either destroy the obstacle or build technological edge that can go over the obstacle (render the obstacle irrelevant).

Keep the 1000 minute goal up front and prepare for that. Success will surely follow.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby fanne » 22 Nov 2020 23:56

There could be many answers - Mine is simple. Tsp divided into many parts - Pakjab, Baluch, GB is of course ours, Sindh... There are detractors of this approach, that these men will spill into India and who wants millions of yahoos. I think that assumption is wrong (currently 60-80% TSP is at Sub Saharan level) yet no one is crossing. Not to say they will not in the future (but you hardly see many N. Korean fleeing to South). One can pick some other option like - free Baluch (50% of area of TSP) ...BUT I think one has to destroy the central islamic deep state that has ghazwa a Hind as the goal (has ke liya hai pakistan lad ke lenge Hindustaan). Ghazwa a hind will not die (for that the faith has to die, not in near future), but then it will live with 3-4 small state. A threat but not a menace that it is now

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby sudeepj » 23 Nov 2020 02:09

Historically, when entire populations are in the grip of madness, deprogramming them takes crushing defeats when say, 20% of a population, (or as many as half of you fighting age men! perish in battle). You have enemy tanks rolling down your capitals promenade. You see women from respectable families turned to whores just to survive. E.g. Turkey in WW 1, Germany in WW II. Another alternative model is Soviet Rus, when basically the economy/country stopped functioning and no one believed the propaganda/narrative any more.

In both of these models, what eventually broke the regime was that reality became intolerable and the gap between the story and the reality became ridiculously obvious. This is what needs to be done in Pak too. An added complexity is that this scenario will need continuous pressure and barring an aar-paar open war, govts. in India will change and may not have the ideological inclination to continue the fight. If an AIMIM type, an ideological ally of Pakistan, becomes party to power, they will not support any such policy.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshhan » 23 Nov 2020 09:02

sudeepj wrote:Historically, when entire populations are in the grip of madness, deprogramming them takes crushing defeats when say, 20% of a population, (or as many as half of you fighting age men! perish in battle). You have enemy tanks rolling down your capitals promenade. You see women from respectable families turned to whores just to survive. E.g. Turkey in WW 1, Germany in WW II. Another alternative model is Soviet Rus, when basically the economy/country stopped functioning and no one believed the propaganda/narrative any more.

In both of these models, what eventually broke the regime was that reality became intolerable and the gap between the story and the reality became ridiculously obvious. This is what needs to be done in Pak too. An added complexity is that this scenario will need continuous pressure and barring an aar-paar open war, govts. in India will change and may not have the ideological inclination to continue the fight. If an AIMIM type, an ideological ally of Pakistan, becomes party to power, they will not support any such policy.


** This is not the forum for such deranged ideas. I am giving you a warning **
Last edited by SSridhar on 23 Nov 2020 11:34, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Delusional post deleted.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ks_sachin » 23 Nov 2020 09:19

darshhan wrote:
sudeepj wrote:Historically, when entire populations are in the grip of madness, deprogramming them takes crushing defeats when say, 20% of a population, (or as many as half of you fighting age men! perish in battle). You have enemy tanks rolling down your capitals promenade. You see women from respectable families turned to whores just to survive. E.g. Turkey in WW 1, Germany in WW II. Another alternative model is Soviet Rus, when basically the economy/country stopped functioning and no one believed the propaganda/narrative any more.

In both of these models, what eventually broke the regime was that reality became intolerable and the gap between the story and the reality became ridiculously obvious. This is what needs to be done in Pak too. An added complexity is that this scenario will need continuous pressure and barring an aar-paar open war, govts. in India will change and may not have the ideological inclination to continue the fight. If an AIMIM type, an ideological ally of Pakistan, becomes party to power, they will not support any such policy.


** Deleted by Admin**

Even if they had the stomach how would they go about ?
Last edited by SSridhar on 23 Nov 2020 11:38, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Prem Kumar » 23 Nov 2020 11:18

Short of nuclear, bio or chemical warfare, the other option is social engineering, leading to civil war. Some military action would be required, whereby we destroy/break-up the dominant military power (TSPA), thereby allowing militias to fight each other on equal terms. It'd be a long term project and we haven't had much experience in it since the days of Chanakya.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby RajaRudra » 23 Nov 2020 11:20

Friends, this is an open forum and i think we should better stick to killing/defeating PA and Zombies for now.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Aditya_V » 23 Nov 2020 11:39

The answer is break up and start the natural competition with Pakjab, since Pakjab is used to Usurping resources it will automatically initiate conflicts, till date only Pakjab has been armed, if both sides are armed things will change.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SSridhar » 23 Nov 2020 11:42

Warning: Please be mindful of what you say.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nam » 23 Nov 2020 16:12

Aditya_V wrote:The answer is break up and start the natural competition with Pakjab, since Pakjab is used to Usurping resources it will automatically initiate conflicts, till date only Pakjab has been armed, if both sides are armed things will change.


This looks good only on paper. We have BD as example. Other than Hasina and few of her supporters, not many in BD are anti-Pak. BD is going to become a headache for us, once they are economically well off. Give it a few years, BD will jump in for the fight for the crown of Sultan...

Within provinces of Pak, the religious hate towards India is much higher than hate towards each other. We cannot separate Sindh & Punjab, because they don't want to be separated.

We can only isolated Pak from us using IB & LoC as the line of fire. We need to capability to punish PA hard, whenever there is any attack on us.

That's all we can do. There is no solution to the problem called Pak.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 23 Nov 2020 16:56

I would say there are no easy solutions. We all agree that the fountainhead of Pak's hatred towards India and its terror policies is the Pak Military Establishment. In the exchanges a few pages ago with Karan M ji, I was calling for missile strikes on Pindi and Abbotabad. Very briefly, here is why:

Anti-India, anti-Hindu hatred has been fed by this establishment as an opiate to generations of Pakistanis by keeping them impoverished and telling them India is the cause, and using Mullahs to administer this opiate with a fundamentalist, anti-hindu rhetoric.

Our best chance to deal with Pak problem is to strike at the root which is the Establishment. Once the leadership of the establishment is decimated, the rest will collapse into chaos. This is also the least invasive way, with minimum boots on the ground. However, this needs careful preparation and planning, that goes beyond the military aspects. We need to create a new Mukthibahini type movement and organisation, with credible leadership, most of it underground, collect copious intelligence and have elaborate contingency plans. Total de-nuclearisation of Pak is a necessary step in the process. The China angle must be dealt with of course, thats the topic for another post.

Cutting off the head is just half the victory. India should be ready to step in to take control, the name Pakistan should cease to exist. Make Balochistan independent, and install a modern, progressive Govt in the new Indus-stan, that it can control, to run the rest of the country. Deprogramming and de-radicalisation will take time, but its best done from within than from outside. At some point in the future, New Industan could merge with India, but thats not a consideration until deprogramming and de-radicalisation is achieved.

If India is biding its time to build its economy and its world stature further and is tolerating the long tail of proxy war because it is actively preparing and investing in such a plan, then the current Govt policy makes sense. Else we are willing to be the elephant tied down by a crumbling rope attached to nothing.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby amitverma » 23 Nov 2020 18:42

FrontalForce
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BIG: India to brief P5 nations on Pak involvement in Nagrota Terrorist incident. Usually, such steps are undertaken before or after some action.
5:51 PM · Nov 23, 2020·Twitter for Android



The WolfpackRight-pointing magnifying glass
@TheWolfpackIN

Last time India briefed P5 envoys on terrorism was on Feb 15, 2019 just a day after Pulwama attack.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nam » 23 Nov 2020 18:54

I really hope GoI is prepared with a plan in case a Pak terror attack is triggered to get us in a two front fight in peek winter.

The silver lining is that the Nagrota attack failed and gave a early warning..

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby jamwal » 23 Nov 2020 19:14

What's the use of this briefing to Pee5? To show them how much of a good boy India is and get some pats on head?
Do you see any single self-respecting nation putting up presentations in front of others just to make case for it's own self-defence?

EDIT: Am I the only one who thinks that dragging American elections in to all this talk about recent attempted terrorist attacks from Pakistan is waste of time? Pakis will act like Pakis no matter who is in Oval office. They never stopped trying when Obama was in charge and didn't change much with Trump either. Only India can make Pakis stop their terrorist attacks against India, not US, not China, Saudi Arab or whatever country you like. You people talk like Trump had Bajwa's balls in his nuclear football and he gave them back after 2020 election results.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Americans don't give a shit if any number of Indians die in any paki terrorist attack.
Last edited by jamwal on 23 Nov 2020 19:43, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshan » 23 Nov 2020 19:36

Looks like US election results and hot LAC have enabled pakistani islamic public.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Philip » 23 Nov 2020 19:57

True,even Americans.What has the US done about its citizpens killed in the 26/11 attacks,the anniversary coming up in 3 days time? I've said for decades that the sordid,perverted relationship the US,CIA,military,intel agtncies,whoever, had with the Pakis from CENTO days to date, are too luscious,have too many skeletons in the cupboard to be revealed.We had 3 PMs of India assassinated,LBS,Mrs.G and Rajiv G. LBS abroad where the Pakis were at play,Mrs.G by Khalistanis,the movement in the pay of Pak,and Rajiv by the mercenary LTTE- but who directed the LTTE and paid them off? Which nations sent their FMs to Colombo (to try and force Rajapakse ) to save their fuhrer and his top leadership? The ISI have for long used SL as a base to destabilise India and for most of the time they and the Yanquis were bumchums! Even the Easter bombings that brought the brothers back to power ,committed in the field by Islamist indoctrinated youth had a yet to be identified mastermind/s. Who benefited from regime change? The PRC and Pakis.

So don't expect favours from the Yanquis.Follow Israel's example.Do things yourselves and those who wage terrorist war against you you exterminate at any cost.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby chetak » 23 Nov 2020 20:48

jamwal wrote:
Sorry to burst your bubble, but Americans don't give a shit if any number of Indians die in any paki terrorist attack.


true.

but then, and also sadly for us, the amerikis do give a crap about how many pakis die because the pakis have always bamboozled the amerikis to rein in the Indian offensives before it really begins to hurt the pakis.

the pakis routinely play the afghan card to get the amerikis to cool down the Indians. paki afghan dynamics hurt the ameriki withdrawal kinetics as planned and also as desperately desired by the amerikis and, in this regard, the pakis have the ameriki nuts in a vice.

India has nothing similar to offer in comparison and will also never agree to the Indian boots on the afghan ground that many ameriki thinktankis and army afsars are so keen to have.
Last edited by chetak on 23 Nov 2020 21:07, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby JTull » 23 Nov 2020 20:59

jamwal wrote:What's the use of this briefing to Pee5? To show them how much of a good boy India is and get some pats on head?
...
Sorry to burst your bubble, but Americans don't give a shit if any number of Indians die in any paki terrorist attack.


It does make it harder for certain elements in new administration to support easing off the pressure on Pakistan. And saves us from being pressured from escalating.
.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby sreerudra » 23 Nov 2020 21:52

JTull wrote:
jamwal wrote:What's the use of this briefing to Pee5? To show them how much of a good boy India is and get some pats on head?
...
Sorry to burst your bubble, but Americans don't give a shit if any number of Indians die in any paki terrorist attack.


It does make it harder for certain elements in new administration to support easing off the pressure on Pakistan. And saves us from being pressured from escalating.
.


My apoligies. It makes no effect on Americans. Remember Mumbai attacks? They didn't care to hand off Hadley guy. They don't really care.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby vimal » 23 Nov 2020 22:18

^^ Remember, members of India’s ruling party called 26/11 RSS conspiracy. Heal thyself is the motto.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 23 Nov 2020 22:31

Breifing P5 is to get continued support on FATF and prepare ground for possible action. And force China to bare itself as a Paki supporter once again or at worst put them in a bind about our next move.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Lisa » 24 Nov 2020 00:16

FWIW

At a Crossroads? China-India Nuclear Relations After the Border Clash

https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/08/1 ... -pub-82489

"Chinese experts tend to view both countries’ security strategies as defense-oriented. They believe India’s nuclear weapons program is primarily driven by prestige and the pursuit of international status, not by an offensive military agenda. And they maintain a relatively relaxed attitude toward India’s growing nuclear capabilities, which “don’t add to deterrence versus China.” These attitudes persist even though India has deployed a nuclear-armed submarine, tested an anti-satellite missile, and reportedly begun developing a multiple warhead capability for its ballistic missiles. Despite being able to reach Chinese territory, India’s long-range nuclear missiles are not seen as an immediate threat. Chinese experts tend to argue that these weapons are for general deterrence and not for actual employment.

Therefore, India’s nuclear capability and policy developments do not seem to have much effect on China’s strategic outlook. And because Beijing does not attribute India’s nuclear modernization to an aggressive military posture, Chinese experts do not see the need to respond strongly and immediately to India’s progress. This generally relaxed attitude may contribute positively to a stable nuclear relationship. That said, a Chinese academic noted, “There are always people in decision making circles who worry, so if the nuclear threat from India increases, then some in China will argue for a response.”

Chinese analysts also tend to believe that their country’s policies and actions do not affect India’s nuclear policies, despite clear beliefs in New Delhi to the contrary. This lack of Chinese sensitivity to Indian views of bilateral nuclear relations has created a situation that could be termed “decoupled deterrence.” Unlike a security spiral based on successive actions and reactions between two adversaries, in decoupled deterrence only the smaller or weaker power takes security-seeking steps in response to actions by the bigger power, which are motivated by a different threat. So in this case, India may respond to Chinese developments, but not vice versa, as China remains focused on the threat from the United States. Meanwhile, Beijing’s lack of understanding of New Delhi’s threat perception, disinterest in addressing India’s security concerns, and gradual effort to strengthen its own nuclear forces could add fuel to India’s perceived need to boost its strategic capabilities and nuclear arsenal.

Underlying analysts’ views is a widely held belief in Beijing that China has little influence over India’s nuclear policy making since it is driven by prestige rather than military considerations and China is only “a secondary or even tertiary factor.” For instance, some analysts with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) believe that India’s nuclear thinking is inward-looking: India has set its standard for credible nuclear deterrence, independent from the capabilities and postures of its rivals. They predict that India will continue building up its nuclear forces until its own standard of nuclear sufficiency is met and that other countries, including China, can do little to influence this process. As one Chinese military expert told us, “China is an excuse for India, a general rationale, but now [under Modi] there is an internal rationale” for India’s nuclear policies."

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ranneel » 24 Nov 2020 00:44

I have processed some Sentinel MSI 10m resolution and SAR images of late and would like to share them but not sure where to upload them as the reprocessed images are quite large in size (~1GB). I have some recent MSI from the Pangong Lake region, to the snow covered Neelum valley, to the coast and sea off the Makran coast as part of the experiment. Would there be interest in such a kind of work here ? If so, any suggestion on how to go about it and increase participation by other interested folks. I can share the flow of processing using tools from ESA for MSI and SAR images (it is publicly available info but would save a lot of time). The revisit time is 5 days around South Asia so the images can be as recent as that many days.
Last edited by ranneel on 24 Nov 2020 00:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby jamwal » 24 Nov 2020 00:47

Google Drive, Microsoft drive, Google photos or Imgur.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ranneel » 24 Nov 2020 00:48

jamwal wrote:Google Drive, Microsoft drive, Google photos or Imgur.

Don't they have size limitations on each image though ?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby jamwal » 24 Nov 2020 00:52

How big is each image, format? Can't you resize and compress them to JPG, PNG etc?

Weshare works for extra large files.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nachiket » 24 Nov 2020 08:27

Vidur wrote:I am referring to tactical and operational decisions not to modernisation and procurement. With our current equipment and inventory we can handle a 2 front threat. Please take this from me on face value. This is Govt of India plan and a fact. Akshay can share the concpet of operations.

Having said that we are not talking about that but a very defensive outlook in border management and in implementing 'Moral Ascendancy'. I say this with a lot of responsibility and close knowledge. Equipment is NOT a bottleneck today.

While I understand and appreciate the overall thrust of your argument, I am not sure how we can say that equipment is not a bottleneck today. Every single thread on the Mil forum here has one or more examples of severe shortcomings in equipment holdings in either quantity or quality or both. From basic rifles all the way to fighter jets. I cannot understand how this will *not* impact the Army's calculations when it gives options to the GoI on what retaliatory or pre-emptive measures we can take against Pakistan including projected casualty estimates. This will no doubt affect the GoI's own decision making when it comes to choosing between these options (or choosing not to exercise any of them). Now to be fair, the services themselves share some blame for this predicament since their own decision making regarding procurement has been problematic in more ways than one, but the lion's share of the blame is to be borne by boneheaded decisions of successive governments and most importantly the catastrophic performance of the bureaucracy when it comes to defence procurement.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshhan » 24 Nov 2020 14:20

nachiket wrote:
Vidur wrote:I am referring to tactical and operational decisions not to modernisation and procurement. With our current equipment and inventory we can handle a 2 front threat. Please take this from me on face value. This is Govt of India plan and a fact. Akshay can share the concpet of operations.

Having said that we are not talking about that but a very defensive outlook in border management and in implementing 'Moral Ascendancy'. I say this with a lot of responsibility and close knowledge. Equipment is NOT a bottleneck today.

While I understand and appreciate the overall thrust of your argument, I am not sure how we can say that equipment is not a bottleneck today. Every single thread on the Mil forum here has one or more examples of severe shortcomings in equipment holdings in either quantity or quality or both. From basic rifles all the way to fighter jets. I cannot understand how this will *not* impact the Army's calculations when it gives options to the GoI on what retaliatory or pre-emptive measures we can take against Pakistan including projected casualty estimates. This will no doubt affect the GoI's own decision making when it comes to choosing between these options (or choosing not to exercise any of them). Now to be fair, the services themselves share some blame for this predicament since their own decision making regarding procurement has been problematic in more ways than one, but the lion's share of the blame is to be borne by boneheaded decisions of successive governments and most importantly the catastrophic performance of the bureaucracy when it comes to defence procurement.


While Indian Bureaucracy leaves lot to be desired, but I doubt if they are that much of a villain especially in Namo govt? Who is responsible for not ordering Arjuns or Tejas MK1As or LCHs or Netra Awacs systems? I doubt if bureaucracy had a major say in these decisions.

And anyways all three services have been granted emergency financial powers for quite sometime now. Even these powers have been increased to Rs 500 cr per program after galwan clash. So can services still blame MoD bureaucracy for majority of procurement decisions? Most of the small arms as well as artillery ammunition can be manufactured by private manufacturers. Ammo is one item consumed most heavily in a war. All services have to do is to place orders.

Plus hasn't the Indian Army itself stated on record sometime back that it has sufficient reserves for 45 days war including 10 days of intense action. Are they now saying this was not true?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby a_bharat » 24 Nov 2020 15:39

sreerudra wrote:Remember Mumbai attacks? They didn't care to hand off Hadley guy. They don't really care.


That's a funny way of putting it. They were careful to not hand over Headley to cover their own role in terrorism against India.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Vidur » 24 Nov 2020 20:27

darshhan wrote:
nachiket wrote:While I understand and appreciate the overall thrust of your argument, I am not sure how we can say that equipment is not a bottleneck today. Every single thread on the Mil forum here has one or more examples of severe shortcomings in equipment holdings in either quantity or quality or both. From basic rifles all the way to fighter jets. I cannot understand how this will *not* impact the Army's calculations when it gives options to the GoI on what retaliatory or pre-emptive measures we can take against Pakistan including projected casualty estimates. This will no doubt affect the GoI's own decision making when it comes to choosing between these options (or choosing not to exercise any of them). Now to be fair, the services themselves share some blame for this predicament since their own decision making regarding procurement has been problematic in more ways than one, but the lion's share of the blame is to be borne by boneheaded decisions of successive governments and most importantly the catastrophic performance of the bureaucracy when it comes to defence procurement.


While Indian Bureaucracy leaves lot to be desired, but I doubt if they are that much of a villain especially in Namo govt? Who is responsible for not ordering Arjuns or Tejas MK1As or LCHs or Netra Awacs systems? I doubt if bureaucracy had a major say in these decisions.

And anyways all three services have been granted emergency financial powers for quite sometime now. Even these powers have been increased to Rs 500 cr per program after galwan clash. So can services still blame MoD bureaucracy for majority of procurement decisions? Most of the small arms as well as artillery ammunition can be manufactured by private manufacturers. Ammo is one item consumed most heavily in a war. All services have to do is to place orders.

Plus hasn't the Indian Army itself stated on record sometime back that it has sufficient reserves for 45 days war including 10 days of intense action. Are they now saying this was not true?


Gentlemen this is not about Armed Forces vs Bureaucracy. This is about 'military logic' as one of my army colleagues so aptly puts it.

Current holdings cater for a 2 front war with offensive on one front and defensive on other. India has a substantial edge on military force that can be brought to bear on Western front. Analysis on this forum is equipment centric and misses out the operational art, tactical and geography aspects completely. It also misses out the adversary's equipment states, morale, training, internal challenges.

''War is not a excel spreadsheet comparison of numbers as is seen on TV channels. It is ability to bring force to bear at right place taking full advantage of geography'' - Indian Military friends. It was illuminating for me as well when I first saw these concepts. I have asked Akshay to do a write up. If he does so, I will post it.

Rest assured your armed forces are in much better shape despite bureaucratic catastrophes and bunglings. This is due to geography and the Western adversary being a in a worse state. The Eastern Adversary is hampered by geography and lack of experience and will to fight. I would also urge all to study carefully Cybersurg's videos. The quality of analysis is superb and very credible
Last edited by Vidur on 24 Nov 2020 20:39, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Vidur » 24 Nov 2020 20:31

Don't let this be a get out jail free card for the bureaucrats. The trajectory of equipment gaps is against us and gaps will only worsen with time. Geographic advantage on one front will also reduce with time as China makes more airfields. Enemy will learn, adapt, correct mistakes so training and operational proceedure advantages will also close. The trajectory that faces us is against us given the shortage of funds + bureaucratic bungling as you rightly say. We will not be able to correct these with time. Our defence procurement problems are too systemic.

Even 3 years later I would not be in a position to make the statements I made in the previous post. Window is now.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshhan » 24 Nov 2020 20:52

Vidur wrote:Don't let this be a get out jail free card for the bureaucrats. The trajectory of equipment gaps is against us and gaps will only worsen with time. Geographic advantage on one front will also reduce with time as China makes more airfields. Enemy will learn, adapt, correct mistakes so training and operational proceedure advantages will also close. The trajectory that faces us is against us given the shortage of funds + bureaucratic bungling as you rightly say. We will not be able to correct these. Our defence procurement problems are too systemic.

Even 3 years later I would not be in a position to make the statements I made in the previous post. Window is now.


Exactly my thoughts. Our structural and procedural inefficiencies mean that we will be in a worse position after 3 years compared to today. Neither Pakis nor chinese have to contend and comply with CVC guidelines or L1 tendering system. If we feel that in future we will be in a better situation compared to today, well then that is just a feeling not a fact.

If the incoming Biden administration is hostile to us, it will only queer the pitch further.

With China asymmetry against us will only increase over a period of time. Atleast let us gather courage and destroy one front(pak) for now, so that we can focus almost completely on China.

If we fail to do the above, then future generations will blame Namo in the same way, that we do to Nehru and Indira Gandhi for non closure of Pakistan issue when they had the time and opportunity to do so.

Namo should accordingly initiate the process instead of depending upon the opinion of mil top brass who might be reluctant to come out of the COIN comfort zone. They have to be reminded that their scope of task is much more than replicating the job of J&K Police and BSF/CRPF.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby shyamd » 24 Nov 2020 21:42

Vidur wrote:There is significant defensiveness, career protection and risk aversion in military thinking especially in army. Politicians are risk averse by nature and don't have any military knowledge or expertise. So naturally they go for the path of least resistance in face of the advice they are given.

Can we be a bit more specific on how exactly they are risk averse? As you say it's not just equipment but geography, training, experience etc, bit difficult to be generic and too general to form any conclusion.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 25 Nov 2020 00:06

Vidur wrote:Even 3 years later I would not be in a position to make the statements I made in the previous post. Window is now.


Vidur ji,
I'm trying to read together your earlier comment about the leadership in the forces being risk averse and the comment above. The only third ingredient is the decision making by the Govt leadership. How do you see their appetite for a kinetic resolution of the Pak problem in the near term?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby sudeepj » 25 Nov 2020 01:31

Cyrano wrote:I would say there are no easy solutions. We all agree that the fountainhead of Pak's hatred towards India and its terror policies is the Pak Military Establishment. In the exchanges a few pages ago with Karan M ji, I was calling for missile strikes on Pindi and Abbotabad. Very briefly, here is why:

Anti-India, anti-Hindu hatred has been fed by this establishment as an opiate to generations of Pakistanis by keeping them impoverished and telling them India is the cause, and using Mullahs to administer this opiate with a fundamentalist, anti-hindu rhetoric.

Our best chance to deal with Pak problem is to strike at the root which is the Establishment. Once the leadership of the establishment is decimated, the rest will collapse into chaos. This is also the least invasive way, with minimum boots on the ground. However, this needs careful preparation and planning, that goes beyond the military aspects. We need to create a new Mukthibahini type movement and organisation, with credible leadership, most of it underground, collect copious intelligence and have elaborate contingency plans. Total de-nuclearisation of Pak is a necessary step in the process. The China angle must be dealt with of course, thats the topic for another post.

Cutting off the head is just half the victory. India should be ready to step in to take control, the name Pakistan should cease to exist. Make Balochistan independent, and install a modern, progressive Govt in the new Indus-stan, that it can control, to run the rest of the country. Deprogramming and de-radicalisation will take time, but its best done from within than from outside. At some point in the future, New Industan could merge with India, but thats not a consideration until deprogramming and de-radicalisation is achieved.

If India is biding its time to build its economy and its world stature further and is tolerating the long tail of proxy war because it is actively preparing and investing in such a plan, then the current Govt policy makes sense. Else we are willing to be the elephant tied down by a crumbling rope attached to nothing.


Its good to make plans that are possible and doable. When India has problems managing our own people, why do you think we should step in to manage the mess that is Pakistan? Let the Pakistani elite who created the mess in the first place own the mess! Our rather limited goal (for now) should be to have some kind of a lever on Pakistan's internal political, economic, even religious dynamic that actuates these attacks on India.

What is such a lever? One lever can be, everytime we are hit, somebodies properties/businesses/economic interests get a serious hit. Why should a Bajwa get to run his Papa John's in America peacefully? He can easily be made to suffer loss of his generational wealth. A Mumbai should cause a serious recession, food shortfalls, berozgari in Pakistan, and the elite should be made to own that mess. In the short term, they can say its the big bad India, but ultimately, the misery will bite. This is just one lever, there can be many others.

India-Pak relations should be like 'mowing the lawn' for 15-20 years, till they get it in their heads that they cant carry on like that.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SriKumar » 25 Nov 2020 05:51

Ah... about a month late, but here it is...another round of App bans in response to President Xi's India-friendly policies (probably in response to the Mumbai power cut hacking from China?). Ladakh is getting colder now. Every month of this prolonging should have one more round of app bans.

https://www.republicworld.com/technolog ... -here.html

In a significant development in tightening the noose against China, the Centre on Tuesday announced a ban of 43 more mobile apps. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MEITY) issued an order under section 69A of the Information Technology Act blocking access to 43 mobile apps, stating that the decision is taken based on the inputs regarding these apps for engaging in activities which are prejudicial to sovereignty and integrity of India, defence of India, security of state and public order. Moreover, this decision was based on the comprehensive reports received from Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre of MHA.
The list of apps in the article.....some of these will be missed, I am sure. They better save the phone #s quickly... :lol:

TrulyChinese - Chinese Dating App
TrulyAsian - Asian Dating App
ChinaLove: dating app for Chinese singles :D (why this is needed in India, Xi jaane)
DateMyAge: Chat, Meet, Date Mature Singles Online
AsianDate: find Asian singles
FlirtWish: chat with singles
Guys Only Dating: Gay Chat
First Love Live- super hot live beauties live online
Rela - Lesbian Social Network

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshhan » 25 Nov 2020 09:51

Cyrano wrote:
Vidur wrote:Even 3 years later I would not be in a position to make the statements I made in the previous post. Window is now.


Vidur ji,
I'm trying to read together your earlier comment about the leadership in the forces being risk averse and the comment above. The only third ingredient is the decision making by the Govt leadership. How do you see their appetite for a kinetic resolution of the Pak problem in the near term?


This question is directed to Vidur ji. But my answer would be "close to zero". That is based on my observation till date. I do hope that Namo changes this perception in the coming days and months. Will be good for his legacy too. For the country's good and his own good, he has to change from Trader/Businessman Prime Minister to Warrior/Commander Prime Minister that we need so badly. He sure has the potential and decisiveness. It is just a matter of priority for him.

Anyways economy is screwed and will continue to be screwed for some time more. Probably 1 more year atleast. This is partially because of reasons beyond Modiji's control(covid etc). To his credit he has unleashed significant reforms in Agricultural and Labour sectors. But still we will not be reaching $10 trillion economy any time soon.

So why not fight instead and grow your territory. Atleast your legacy will be cemented in Conquest terms. If you cannot become lee Quan yew or Deng Xiaoping, become atleast like Abraham Lincoln or FDR or even Mao. Otherwise become the next Nehru.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby shyamd » 25 Nov 2020 12:19

shyamd wrote:One should build a sequence of events on the LoC. IA/BSF soldiers were ambushed by BAT team a few days. Artillery from TSPA today resulting in further casualties.
Today's artillery strikes by IA over a number of sectors on fixed TSPA sites is a continuation of IA's SOP used throughout 2020. This is aimed to send a message of resolve and readiness to go up the escalatory ladder.

In my view IA would have to go for stronger action than what has been undertaken in the days ahead if they are to deter BATs. These strikes would have to be combined with other ground moves. If anything, it would be a good time to test the position of Biden if GOI undertake some limited action.

It is quite possible TSPA are forcing the hand of IA.

It looks like the armed forces did indeed conduct deeper strikes across the border.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Deans » 25 Nov 2020 15:17

sudeepj wrote:
Its good to make plans that are possible and doable. When India has problems managing our own people, why do you think we should step in to manage the mess that is Pakistan? Let the Pakistani elite who created the mess in the first place own the mess! Our rather limited goal (for now) should be to have some kind of a lever on Pakistan's internal political, economic, even religious dynamic that actuates these attacks on India.

What is such a lever? One lever can be, everytime we are hit, somebodies properties/businesses/economic interests get a serious hit. Why should a Bajwa get to run his Papa John's in America peacefully? He can easily be made to suffer loss of his generational wealth. A Mumbai should cause a serious recession, food shortfalls, berozgari in Pakistan, and the elite should be made to own that mess. In the short term, they can say its the big bad India, but ultimately, the misery will bite. This is just one lever, there can be many others.

India-Pak relations should be like 'mowing the lawn' for 15-20 years, till they get it in their heads that they cant carry on like that.


There is a lot of economic leverage we can have - I've written a paper on the subject (GOI is taking baby steps in implementing some of them).

1. Do what we are allowed to under Indus water treaty. Help Afghanistan negotiate a similar treaty with Pak, to reduce water flowing into Pak.
2. A small export incentive for cotton textiles and basmati rice (half of all Pak exports). There are WTO compliant ways to do this.
Ban export of raw cotton and all other Agri products to Pak.
3. Companies bidding for, or supplying goods to POK, or doing business with a terrorist organisation like Pak's Fauji foundation, may be banned
from business in India, or (if they insist on operating in Pak) pay an additonal `security tax'.
4. GOI can subsidise Indian labour going to the Gulf (displacing Pakistanis). This can be something simple like Air fare on AI, medical insurance
and not charging a recruitment fee. Gulf labor is Pakistan's 2nd largest source of forex, after cotton textile exports. If recruitment for govt
companies in the Gulf is handled by GOI, they can target labor from poorer states, rather than traditional manpower suppliers like Kerala.
5. Expats who wish to work in India should not have visited Pak in the past (this targets MNC's who club India-Pak as south Asia)
Any Pakistani who wants to visit India for business /work, needs security clearance.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshhan » 25 Nov 2020 17:19

Deans wrote:
sudeepj wrote:
Its good to make plans that are possible and doable. When India has problems managing our own people, why do you think we should step in to manage the mess that is Pakistan? Let the Pakistani elite who created the mess in the first place own the mess! Our rather limited goal (for now) should be to have some kind of a lever on Pakistan's internal political, economic, even religious dynamic that actuates these attacks on India.

What is such a lever? One lever can be, everytime we are hit, somebodies properties/businesses/economic interests get a serious hit. Why should a Bajwa get to run his Papa John's in America peacefully? He can easily be made to suffer loss of his generational wealth. A Mumbai should cause a serious recession, food shortfalls, berozgari in Pakistan, and the elite should be made to own that mess. In the short term, they can say its the big bad India, but ultimately, the misery will bite. This is just one lever, there can be many others.

India-Pak relations should be like 'mowing the lawn' for 15-20 years, till they get it in their heads that they cant carry on like that.


There is a lot of economic leverage we can have - I've written a paper on the subject (GOI is taking baby steps in implementing some of them).

1. Do what we are allowed to under Indus water treaty. Help Afghanistan negotiate a similar treaty with Pak, to reduce water flowing into Pak.
2. A small export incentive for cotton textiles and basmati rice (half of all Pak exports). There are WTO compliant ways to do this.
Ban export of raw cotton and all other Agri products to Pak.
3. Companies bidding for, or supplying goods to POK, or doing business with a terrorist organisation like Pak's Fauji foundation, may be banned
from business in India, or (if they insist on operating in Pak) pay an additonal `security tax'.
4. GOI can subsidise Indian labour going to the Gulf (displacing Pakistanis). This can be something simple like Air fare on AI, medical insurance
and not charging a recruitment fee. Gulf labor is Pakistan's 2nd largest source of forex, after cotton textile exports. If recruitment for govt
companies in the Gulf is handled by GOI, they can target labor from poorer states, rather than traditional manpower suppliers like Kerala.
5. Expats who wish to work in India should not have visited Pak in the past (this targets MNC's who club India-Pak as south Asia)
Any Pakistani who wants to visit India for business /work, needs security clearance.


These are solutions which would have worked from 1950's to 1990's. Not good enough now. Every extra day that Pakistan survives now is a danger to us.


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