India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

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nam
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nam » 18 Dec 2020 01:56

Vidur wrote:Sir, with greatest of respect the last part is just devoid of military logic and appreciation of terrain and ground realities. Please rest assured that we are in well prepared defensive positions with enough reserves. The first makes any attack by China suicidal and the second means immediate counter offensives by us. I hope you are aware we have almost 3 armd brigade equivalent in the area. I hope you are not taken in by the nonsensical propaganda of Global Times.

Allow me to end by saying that is that if Chinese attack our armed forces will be quite grateful for an opportunity to smash them. As the movie Dirty Harry goes 'Go ahead, make my days'. I'm sure the Chinese are not silly enough to oblige.


It is not about what we can and will do. We may very well counter attack. If not in winter, but in summer. It is not about us. I know they cannot defeat us easily.

I am trying to formulate what the Chinese might be thinking. Wars are not accidentals. It happens when one of the party believes there is a window of opportunity, in which it can win.

We have a habit of getting surprised. Winter is the time, which allows the Chinese to apply standoff attacks, without a major risk of our mechanized forces invading in to Tibet.

Chinese would like to show that we a technological inferior foe, with the minimum blow-back.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby vnadendla » 18 Dec 2020 04:24

darshan wrote:
nam wrote:62 wasn't a knock out blow. It is considered one, because we didn't carry out a counter offensive. Chinis know they cannot win, unless India accepts defeat.

The Chinis empty the areas captured in 62 during every winter! No one in 60 years has ever thought about just walking in! That's how we are. :roll:


This is something that should be required to be debated at every education institute before allowing out of the 10th grade.


Its not the question of walking in. It is the question of keeping it. We need to develop the infrastructure on our side. That's what we are doing after many years. They stalled us through pakis and other means over the years. Once that is built they need to figure out how to man the area with such a difficult supply chain or give up.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby csharma » 18 Dec 2020 07:51

Jayadev Ranade had said that in the TV interview. Lt Gen Kulkarni was present as well.

here is an article by him
https://stratnewsglobal.com/lac-impasse ... ure-china/


Given the pressure he is under, especially domestically, Xi Jinping cannot be seen to be backing off. Instead, as pressure mounts he could resort to fanning nationalist sentiment including by taking military initiatives against neighbours he perceives as unfriendly. A successful offensive against India will yield him multiple gains. It will demonstrate that Xi Jinping is capable of defeating a friend of the U.S. and signal to other powers in the region that they should fall in line. It will, of course, enormously consolidate Xi Jinping’s position inside China.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ramana » 18 Dec 2020 12:56

Thanks for the excerpt.

We should ask Mr. Ranade what happens if Xi is unsuccessful against India?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ramana » 18 Dec 2020 13:11

nam, Your premise of capitulation won't happen. India of 2020 is not that in 1962.
So rest doesn't follow.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby csharma » 18 Dec 2020 14:10

Ranade does not say that China will succeed. He just says that is their desire. He said folks like Gen Kulkarni and his successors will deny them a victory.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby hemant_sai » 18 Dec 2020 14:46

ramana wrote:nam, Your premise of capitulation won't happen. India of 2020 is not that in 1962.
So rest doesn't follow.


India of 2020 is not that in 1962. But China of 2030 will be enormous than in 2020. Around 2030 there will be decisive war and we will suffer huge losses. Thanks to lethargic attitude in procurement and readiness.

Sorry for bringing in predictions - not appropriate on this forum. But If 2021 war with Pakistan becomes reality then there will be war with China too in coming decade.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Vidur » 18 Dec 2020 15:22

India has the advantage now

- IAF due to paucity of Chinese airfields and their geography so PLAAF numbers advantage cannot be brought to bear
- Indian Army has the advantage due to prepared defences and forward deployments on heights + reserves. Also training, experience
- IN has advantage due to narrow and shallow Malacca straits as main ingress channel , but has severe weakness in ASW and Submarines

Within 2-5 years all these Chinese weaknesses will be addressed substantially if not fully. One can look at each in detail and map out the trajectory.

Therefore I have said before on this forum that our window is now and we should be bold enough to exploit it. In my opinion and experience we will not be able to build up the way we project in our best case scenarios. Time works against us, not for us.

We are underestimating ourselves in short term and overestimating in the medium to long term.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nam » 18 Dec 2020 15:36

On the topic of Chinese airfields in Tibet, they have been refurbishing old airfields and possibly building more, which is not public yet.

The airfield issue is not a difficult one to solve. In the past 6 months, they could have easily built few runways and shelters in the vast Tibetian desert.

I will not underestimate PLAAF capability to move assets in to the region.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 18 Dec 2020 18:25

nam wrote:
Vidur wrote:Sir, with greatest of respect the last part is just devoid of military logic and appreciation of terrain and ground realities. Please rest assured that we are in well prepared defensive positions with enough reserves. The first makes any attack by China suicidal and the second means immediate counter offensives by us. I hope you are aware we have almost 3 armd brigade equivalent in the area. I hope you are not taken in by the nonsensical propaganda of Global Times.

Allow me to end by saying that is that if Chinese attack our armed forces will be quite grateful for an opportunity to smash them. As the movie Dirty Harry goes 'Go ahead, make my days'. I'm sure the Chinese are not silly enough to oblige.


It is not about what we can and will do. We may very well counter attack. If not in winter, but in summer. It is not about us. I know they cannot defeat us easily.

I am trying to formulate what the Chinese might be thinking. Wars are not accidentals. It happens when one of the party believes there is a window of opportunity, in which it can win.

We have a habit of getting surprised. Winter is the time, which allows the Chinese to apply standoff attacks, without a major risk of our mechanized forces invading in to Tibet.

Chinese would like to show that we a technological inferior foe, with the minimum blow-back.
We keep coming back to this point again and again ...

China has standoff weapons so do we. IIRC, there was a report where the Chinese were seen complaining that India had deployed too many Brahmos near the LAC. Brahmos is one amongst many standoff weapon that is available to India.

So while India is not going to invade Tibet, the risk to the Chinese standoff faceoff "at the LAC" is no less. They can target our military position and so can we in the "vicinity of the LAC".

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 18 Dec 2020 18:28

vnadendla wrote:
darshan wrote:This is something that should be required to be debated at every education institute before allowing out of the 10th grade.


Its not the question of walking in. It is the question of keeping it. We need to develop the infrastructure on our side. That's what we are doing after many years. They stalled us through pakis and other means over the years. Once that is built they need to figure out how to man the area with such a difficult supply chain or give up.

Correct on the first bit but I differ on the 2nd bit. India, on its own, decided it was not prudent to develop the border infra lest it makes the task of the invading Chinese easier. This was the official GOI policy following the '62 war.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 18 Dec 2020 18:31

hemant_sai wrote:
ramana wrote:nam, Your premise of capitulation won't happen. India of 2020 is not that in 1962.
So rest doesn't follow.


India of 2020 is not that in 1962. But China of 2030 will be enormous than in 2020. Around 2030 there will be decisive war and we will suffer huge losses. Thanks to lethargic attitude in procurement and readiness.

Sorry for bringing in predictions - not appropriate on this forum. But If 2021 war with Pakistan becomes reality then there will be war with China too in coming decade.
China of 2020 is also enormous when compared to India in economic and military terms but they know they will get punched in the face even now.

If a war breaks out losses will be huge on both sides. An all out war in 2020 will be no less damaging than one in 2030.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby vnadendla » 18 Dec 2020 22:21

pankajs wrote:
vnadendla wrote:
Its not the question of walking in. It is the question of keeping it. We need to develop the infrastructure on our side. That's what we are doing after many years. They stalled us through pakis and other means over the years. Once that is built they need to figure out how to man the area with such a difficult supply chain or give up.

Correct on the first bit but I differ on the 2nd bit. India, on its own, decided it was not prudent to develop the border infra lest it makes the task of the invading Chinese easier. This was the official GOI policy following the '62 war.


That's just for public consumption. Roads are not cheap and are not built and maintained on mass scale to nowhere. There should be an economic return. If Srinagar was Hyderabad and Leh Bangalore they would have been built. Why were they not. Who prevented the economic development?

Now Chinese problem is that they can never have a big city in Aksai Chin. They will always have to match India with dead end infrastructure. Hence they want to prevent India.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby hemant_sai » 18 Dec 2020 23:22

****deleted****
Last edited by hemant_sai on 19 Dec 2020 20:40, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Punjabi » 19 Dec 2020 00:01

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pakistan-war ... 18403.html
Pakistan's foreign minister on Friday accused neighboring India of planning a “surgical strike" against his Islamic nation, the latest in a war of words between the two nuclear-armed rivals.
Since this is relevant to the 2 front-war scenario, it likely points to piglies planning to do a terror strike in India with tacit approval of their Xinmai-baap and alerting the world (esp. their new maibaap sleepy UncleJoeB and auntiHarris). This is 'I told you so', now protect me, deter/counsel NaMo to take no action but KadiNinda only...
I hope I am not reading too much into it. It could also be focused on the event ShatirBrain Koooreshi was attending...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ParGha » 19 Dec 2020 02:05

vnadendla wrote:
pankajs wrote:Correct on the first bit but I differ on the 2nd bit. India, on its own, decided it was not prudent to develop the border infra lest it makes the task of the invading Chinese easier. This was the official GOI policy following the '62 war.
That's just for public consumption. Roads are not cheap and are not built and maintained on mass scale to nowhere. There should be an economic return. If Srinagar was Hyderabad and Leh Bangalore they would have been built. Why were they not. Who prevented the economic development? Now Chinese problem is that they can never have a big city in Aksai Chin. They will always have to match India with dead end infrastructure. Hence they want to prevent India.


The Fabian Strategy was official Indian policy until 1982. GoI spent millions of dollars on the IB and Special Services Bureau programs to teach the border villagers stay-behind and guerrilla warfare, so it was not a simple economic calculation based on lack of opportunity. The PLA threat was real, and India didn’t have the billions of dollars to fight a conventional war. By 1982, the Indian economy had improved enough to reconsider the strategy. The SSB was re-roled only in 2001 (and I still think it was a mistake; in their own humble way, they were more of a Special Force than the gucci-gear door-kickers of today’s popular imagination).

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nam » 19 Dec 2020 03:57

The Paks are up to something. Even for a joker like their FM, it requires extra pair to make a fool of oneself in a press conference in another country.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 19 Dec 2020 13:24

vnadendla wrote:
pankajs wrote:Correct on the first bit but I differ on the 2nd bit. India, on its own, decided it was not prudent to develop the border infra lest it makes the task of the invading Chinese easier. This was the official GOI policy following the '62 war.


That's just for public consumption. Roads are not cheap and are not built and maintained on mass scale to nowhere. There should be an economic return. If Srinagar was Hyderabad and Leh Bangalore they would have been built. Why were they not. Who prevented the economic development?

Now Chinese problem is that they can never have a big city in Aksai Chin. They will always have to match India with dead end infrastructure. Hence they want to prevent India.

The GOI's policy was based on what they actually believed and not just for public consumption. This has been confirmed by multiple source over the years both from within the military and the administration.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pankajs » 19 Dec 2020 13:35

Punjabi wrote:https://www.yahoo.com/news/pakistan-warns-india-planning-surgical-151618403.html
Pakistan's foreign minister on Friday accused neighboring India of planning a “surgical strike" against his Islamic nation, the latest in a war of words between the two nuclear-armed rivals.
Since this is relevant to the 2 front-war scenario, it likely points to piglies planning to do a terror strike in India with tacit approval of their Xinmai-baap and alerting the world (esp. their new maibaap sleepy UncleJoeB and auntiHarris). This is 'I told you so', now protect me, deter/counsel NaMo to take no action but KadiNinda only...
I hope I am not reading too much into it. It could also be focused on the event ShatirBrain Koooreshi was attending...
You are not reading too much .. The bakis are well just being bakis ... thinking everything tactically.

There is a change in guard and sleepy Joe has been a past benefactor. For the baki pov, it makes sense to test both India and sleepy Joe in the new changed environment.

What bakis have not yet understood thus far it seems is that while Modi certainly does not want any major terror strike, it does provide his with an opportunity to emphasize his "tough on terror" credential within India and especially with the masses. Plus it will allow Modi to divert attention from the internal situation and cement the support of the masses behind him.

Sleepy Joe will not be able to head off a retaliation should a terror strike happen in India. Modi himself has raised the bar for self and he cannot be seen to back off. Perhaps the missiles promised to Islamabad last time will be delivered next time.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Malayappan » 20 Dec 2020 10:24

Amid Indian Army's Strong Pushback At LAC, Xi Jinping Replaces General Leading PLA's Western Theatre Command
General Xudong shall succeed 65-years-old General Zhao Zongqi, who had also overseen the Western Theatre Command during the Doklam standoff with the Indian Army in 2017. The Ladakh standoff also erupted under his watch.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby suryag » 20 Dec 2020 10:35

Oops what happened to the hotshotness of zhao zhongqi, is he heading to Leeeducation camp ?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ramana » 20 Dec 2020 12:31

Vidur You know the situation better than most.

It's ultimately multi-dimensional.

Military we can defend right now.
And political goal of standing up has been realized.

Next step depends on Xi.
Lets see.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby kit » 20 Dec 2020 12:49

hemant_sai wrote:
ramana wrote:nam, Your premise of capitulation won't happen. India of 2020 is not that in 1962.
So rest doesn't follow.


India of 2020 is not that in 1962. But China of 2030 will be enormous than in 2020. Around 2030 there will be decisive war and we will suffer huge losses. Thanks to lethargic attitude in procurement and readiness.

Sorry for bringing in predictions - not appropriate on this forum. But If 2021 war with Pakistan becomes reality then there will be war with China too in coming decade.



India of 2030 will not be the India of 2020 :mrgreen: militarily and economically. If you are new to the forum and really worried , go back to 2010 and see what India s adv/disadv were. The China of 2030 would be ripe for a regime change., and any war with a major power will cause it "harm" enough to make a regime change , India would be the 3rd biggest economy and 3rd biggest military power by then, whichever you look at it., the US , EU etc will India more than ever.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby rpartha » 20 Dec 2020 13:19

^^^ India of 2030 will not be India of 2020 - if you say China of 2030 will not be China of 2020. We are on growth trajectory now where as China is kind of plateaued... we should continue to make strides in all areas and not just Military... We have started concentrating on all fields and esp Military area only in the last few years... and after Dokhlam and now this there wont be any confusion in the ruling class (babudom) on who the real enemy is... things will improve. If there is a fight we have to fight.. but no need to go and look for one

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 20 Dec 2020 16:43

China's FDI inflows show no sign of slowing down. Assuming they do and growth plateaus, the wealth amassed over 3 decades will still be around in big stashes to be channelled into military equipment, training & increasing troops for some time after that. India in 2030 will be big no doubt, but China in 2030 will be bigger and the gap will only widen. With US possibly plateauing and perhaps declining, and no other credible competition, expect China to increase it shark loan diplomacy and progress significantly on BRI, String of Pearls strategies by 2030.

They are a formidable foe now, but will be impossible to beat in a decade unless there are internal forces that are harnessed plus the QUAD really picks up and grows some ball$, and France, Germany, ME nations join an anti-china coalition.

Either we teach them a lesson to remember now, else we have to draw our northern & eastern neighbours closer to us and keep counting on the Himalayas to offer us some protection. Luckily for us, the latter aren't going anywhere.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby chola » 20 Dec 2020 17:20

Cyrano wrote:
They are a formidable foe now, but will be impossible to beat in a decade unless there are internal forces that are harnessed plus the QUAD really picks up and grows some ball$, and France, Germany, ME nations join an anti-china coalition.



Don't trust Japan and Korea to abandon Cheen. At best they will play both sides of the fence. They are already in talks for a Northeast Asia trade zone after RCEP.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/10/opinion/three-nations-could-rule-world-together-if-they-wanted/

Fifteen Asian countries representing one-third of humanity signed the biggest international trade deal ever. The new bloc is dominated by three of the world’s most vibrant nations: China, Japan, and South Korea. Combined, they have wealth equal to that of the United States and more than four times the population. All three have daunting military potential. And now that they have joined in a new trade bloc, their leaders want to deepen cooperation. It is a staggering prospect. If China, Japan, and South Korea could turn their economic partnership into a political alliance, they would jointly have little trouble brushing the United States aside to become the world’s top dog.


They (and Taiwan) are the reason Cheen became a power in the first place and they are the one propping up Cheen during the current trade/tech war. Without chips from Taiwan and Korea, the chini tech base would have folded under Trump's bans.

Same with Germany and France. Germany industrial base had made a mint in Cheen. They sell more cars there than in Germany. France had always played both sides though we are the better customers.

Forget the ME. Why would we expect them to go against Cheen? Kuwait, Saudis, Iran, Iraq and Syria had ALL bought chini mil gear. The UAE and Gulf states are using chini Covid vaccines.

The Anglo-sphere will be the most steadfast against Cheen. I wouldn't count on anyone else.

In a year when they are hated more than any other time with the Wuhan virus, they've actually increased their exports. What happens if their vaccines kick in and people forget after a few years?

Betting on them to be weaker in the future is a pretty bad wager IMO. Especially if they reconcile with Japan/Korea through RCEP. Far better to fight them now when they are despised globally.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Rsatchi » 20 Dec 2020 18:07

chola wrote:
Cyrano wrote:
They are a formidable foe now, but will be impossible to beat in a decade unless there are internal forces that are harnessed plus the QUAD really picks up and grows some ball$, and France, Germany, ME nations join an anti-china coalition.



Don't trust Japan and Korea to abandon Cheen. At best they will play both sides of the fence. They are already in talks for a Northeast Asia trade zone after RCEP.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/10/opinion/three-nations-could-rule-world-together-if-they-wanted/

Fifteen Asian countries representing one-third of humanity signed the biggest international trade deal ever. The new bloc is dominated by three of the world’s most vibrant nations: China, Japan, and South Korea. Combined, they have wealth equal to that of the United States and more than four times the population. All three have daunting military potential. And now that they have joined in a new trade bloc, their leaders want to deepen cooperation. It is a staggering prospect. If China, Japan, and South Korea could turn their economic partnership into a political alliance, they would jointly have little trouble brushing the United States aside to become the world’s top dog.


They (and Taiwan) are the reason Cheen became a power in the first place and they are the one propping up Cheen during the current trade/tech war. Without chips from Taiwan and Korea, the chini tech base would have folded under Trump's bans.

Forget the ME. Why would we expect them to go against Cheen? Kuwait, Saudis, Iran, Iraq and Syria had ALL bought chini mil gear. The UAE and Gulf states are using chini Covid vaccines.

The Anglo-sphere will be the most steadfast against Cheen. I wouldn't count on anyone else.

Cholaji
Without sounding racist I personally feel:
There are four/five groups the world is divided into broadly:
1.Caucasian/Anglo sphere
2.African
3.Muslim
4,East Asian/Mongolic
5. South Asian/Indic group
We form the third front to speak in the fight for supremacy between the Caucasian and East Asian fight
Of the other two the Muslim groups wields considerable influence in the present scenario
Religion may play pivotal part in Caucasian and Muslim groups but so much in the East Asian block
Regardless of Communism/Capitalism the fight of the 22nd century would be on the ethnic lines and urge to dominate!
The least influential are the African groups in-spite of the natural resources.
You might argue that I have left out the indigenous/tribal groups viz south Americans etc but there the groups that wield power there are the Caucasian/Christian group

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Cyrano » 20 Dec 2020 18:27

Too much bloody history and ethnic differences between China, Japan and S Korea, it would be wrong to lump them all under east-Asian/Mongolic. China will once again compulsively show its true colours in RCEP. Smaller nations may squeak and bear China's roughshoding, Japan & Korea won't, they will keep a wary distance without provoking and will avoid direct conflict as much as possible given their physical proximity/exposure.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SSridhar » 20 Dec 2020 20:50

The Japan-China relationship is *not* as complicated as that between Vietnam-China or even China-Korea. Though the Chinese believe that the Hans who went after a herb for virility towards the east three thousand years back settled down in what is Japan today (and implicitly it is therefore a Chinese land), and Japan remained a tribute-paying state to China in the early part of the Common Era, things changed in the 7th century when Japanese Empress said that Japan was the 'Land of the Rising Sun' while China was the 'Land of the Setting Sun'. Apart from its implied derision, it also implied an equality and a claim on 'Sun' which plays a crucial part in Chinese dynastic principles and assertions. Since then, the Japanese have remained steadfastly independent. Even the mighty Yuan couldn't defeat the Japanese. The Ming even sought the Japanesee help in the seventeenth century when the Manchu foreign hordes came pouring down to defeat and take over the Han race. The seas, distance and geography have helped the Japanese.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby TKiran » 20 Dec 2020 21:14

SS sir, but one thing is still puzzling for me. Japanese sticked their necks out in 2017 during the Doklam crisis, and perhaps the only nation of significant economic political and diplomatic heft which encouraged India to go for the kill and liberate Tibet a' la Bangladesh.

They had credible intelligence that India will prevail and China wouldn't be able to militarily avoid the defeat in Tibet. Only thing they miscalculated was the political will of NM govt. In New Delhi.

They became fools to have supported India in Doklam.

Now they have licked their wounds and getting closer to China. What has changed in the last 3 years???

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nam » 20 Dec 2020 21:17

Dimmer has again started screaming wolf on twitter about a "false flag" attack. PA is cooking some terror attack. Nagrota was an escape for us.

It is winter time, Chinis haven't agreed for the next round on LAC standoff, Saheen exercise is happening till Dec end.

Any flare off now, would result in PLAAF getting caught up in the fight, if they don't leave.

IAF needs to be on stand by.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby m_saini » 20 Dec 2020 21:27

The japanese and koreans have comparable sales in India and China. If we're to believe that Germany won't play favorites between US and China just because of their car sales, then we should also believe that Korea and Japanese won't play favorites between China and India.

Furthermore, they (Korea and Japan) both also depend heavily on access to american markets for their tech goods and both host american military along with american military bases. The article claiming that a "political alliance" between China, Japan and Korea would rule the world, while technically true, would never happen in a million years. It's just a thought experiment like saying a political alliance between China & India would be a super-duper-superpower and everyone would pay tributes to the union.

Besides, it's extremely patronizing to think that anyone *let* the chinese grow or that they became a power *because* of any country. They grew because of their own volition. Their exports are growing because they produce stuff for cheap and the alternatives burn and loot factories over wage issues. Their industrial monster was never going to be tamed just because of a virus.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ArjunPandit » 20 Dec 2020 21:34

nam wrote:The Paks are up to something. Even for a joker like their FM, it requires extra pair to make a fool of oneself in a press conference in another country.

i think we may be missing the usual paxi tactic of distraction. Their ties with dominant ME countries are on a downward slope. Raising india card there gives the domestic audience a distraction from that and not focus on tHe fact that they did not get baksheesh, their visa status has not been restored so cant be khadims doing khidmat and wont get the baksheesh of petro dollars/dinaars...much tougher days are ahead of them.
They might be upto terror strikes, that's just part of paxi life..

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SSridhar » 20 Dec 2020 22:05

TKiran wrote:Now they have licked their wounds and getting closer to China. What has changed in the last 3 years???

I do not buy the argument that Japan has gotten closer to China.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Vidur » 20 Dec 2020 23:39

ramana wrote:Vidur You know the situation better than most.

It's ultimately multi-dimensional.

Military we can defend right now.
And political goal of standing up has been realized.

Next step depends on Xi.
Lets see.


I dont think the political goal of standing up has been achieved. We have let an opportunity slip to press home our advantage and play to our atrengths. Depsang intrusions are deep and significant. We should have made our own intrusions at key points. Too much fear and defensiveness.

Yes it is multidimensional but we have not done enough on any dimension- narrative building, economic, military. We have brushed our victory at Galwan under the carpet and sent a message of weakness. Yes we have not capitulated but neither have our actions been in consonance with our claims and PM speech in Nimu

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ramana » 21 Dec 2020 02:31

That means it not over yet.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby raja_m » 21 Dec 2020 04:35

Intrusions have begun - there's more to this than what meets the eye

(TOI-let reports)

"ITBP personnel, civilians push back Chinese soldiers in civilian clothes at Chanthang in Ladakh"
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/itbp-personnel-civilians-push-back-chinese-soldiers-in-civilian-clothes-at-chanthang-in-ladakh/articleshow/79828557.cms

A group of Chinese soldiers in two vehicles recently crossed the Indian border into Changthang village in Nyoma area, 135 km east of Leh in Ladakh, as per a video circulated by the residents on Sunday........

Changthang in Leh is mostly inhabited by Tibetan refugees, and is located at an altitude of 14,600 meters above sea level in Rushpo Valley. The land is home to the Changpa nomads

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby fanne » 21 Dec 2020 08:09

I do not get this frequent urge or Modi has lost or India has lost against the Chinese.
War if it can be avoided should be avoided. Net overall on ground, we have more peaks and area under Indian control than in April 2020. Perception wise we are winning. PLA by all news have lost over 100s of soldiers due to weather related issues (and winter is just starting) to 0 of India. There net casualty could be 4 figures and that can itself lead to war in Summers of 2021 (Chinese would have already lost due to weather what they could have lost in short war). Since April 2020 to April 2020, I would say, both countries would have amassed enough weapon, but I would say India would have marginally amassed more (meaning that in April 2021 we will be more advantageous than we would have been in April 2020). So what is the point.
A war would have been devastating to both adversaries. What would be Indian goal of that war? - Get more land? A jhapad? What? None of them by itself is big enough to risk man and material. It is different if imposed on us. Till August 2020 chinese were running around shouting saying be very very afraid of us. Bow down or else....and we have refused to bow down. (After August they are running scared of us).Now the chinese have to come good with their or else threat and they have nothing there. Most likely we will win any skirmish in Ladhakh.At worst it will be a stalemate, each side winning some and loosing some (most likely out come - It would have been so in April 2020/2021/2022...).

Now for that outcome, why initiate a big war? Chinese are also making the same calculation and standing down.

The only people who want war are - Some western power who wants the schism between India and China to be final, and we in their lap and some losers in India who have fine hope that maybe India will loose and maybe that way Modi/BJP rule will come to an end.

If you calculate coldly, unless attacked, there is no sense for this war. Even when we are winning, chinese will not roll over and play dead. There will be a terrible price for both of us to way (of course more for the chinese to pay...but that is no consolation or reason for us to go to war).

On the chinese intrusions - Please read Nitin Gokhale account where he talks with Army officers posted in Sikkim and NE. The PLA soldiers were given goal to go to a post and take a picture (or you are dead - a chicom PLA political officer led army goal). The soldier would come and and beg to take the picture and return back (perhaps put a PLA flag etc), it has no goal to capture that land. This is not to say, one fine day they will not launch full attack to capture. But you will hear a lot that chinese came in peed and ran back and then we all are getting our undies in a twist. Or they march here or there. There is two ways we can fight this war. One what people like Ajay Shukla (a BIF gang member) would want us, spread thin and man every inch of land so that we can be easily defeated. Second is how IA sees fit, it deploys, that means not every inch of land is guarded and yes in that unguarded land PLA soldiers would come, shout XI xingping is great, put a flag, quickly build a chinese equivalent of a hut and run away. Please do not fall for enemy psy ops, we will go in and dismantle these, but do not start breast beating.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Punjabi » 21 Dec 2020 10:09

fanne wrote:I do not get this frequent urge or Modi has lost or India has lost against the Chinese.
War if it can be avoided should be avoided. Net overall on ground, we have more peaks and area under Indian control than in April 2020. Perception wise we are winning. PLA by all news have lost over 100s of soldiers due to weather related issues (and winter is just starting) to 0 of India. There net casualty could be 4 figures and that can itself lead to war in Summers of 2021 (Chinese would have already lost due to weather what they could have lost in short war). Since April 2020 to April 2020, I would say, both countries would have amassed enough weapon, but I would say India would have marginally amassed more (meaning that in April 2021 we will be more advantageous than we would have been in April 2020). So what is the point.
A war would have been devastating to both adversaries. What would be Indian goal of that war? - Get more land? A jhapad? What? None of them by itself is big enough to risk man and material. It is different if imposed on us. Till August 2020 chinese were running around shouting saying be very very afraid of us. Bow down or else....and we have refused to bow down. (After August they are running scared of us).Now the chinese have to come good with their or else threat and they have nothing there. Most likely we will win any skirmish in Ladhakh.At worst it will be a stalemate, each side winning some and loosing some (most likely out come - It would have been so in April 2020/2021/2022...).

Now for that outcome, why initiate a big war? Chinese are also making the same calculation and standing down.

The only people who want war are - Some western power who wants the schism between India and China to be final, and we in their lap and some losers in India who have fine hope that maybe India will loose and maybe that way Modi/BJP rule will come to an end.

If you calculate coldly, unless attacked, there is no sense for this war. Even when we are winning, chinese will not roll over and play dead. There will be a terrible price for both of us to way (of course more for the chinese to pay...but that is no consolation or reason for us to go to war).

On the chinese intrusions - Please read Nitin Gokhale account where he talks with Army officers posted in Sikkim and NE. The PLA soldiers were given goal to go to a post and take a picture (or you are dead - a chicom PLA political officer led army goal). The soldier would come and and beg to take the picture and return back (perhaps put a PLA flag etc), it has no goal to capture that land. This is not to say, one fine day they will not launch full attack to capture. But you will hear a lot that chinese came in peed and ran back and then we all are getting our undies in a twist. Or they march here or there. There is two ways we can fight this war. One what people like Ajay Shukla (a BIF gang member) would want us, spread thin and man every inch of land so that we can be easily defeated. Second is how IA sees fit, it deploys, that means not every inch of land is guarded and yes in that unguarded land PLA soldiers would come, shout XI xingping is great, put a flag, quickly build a chinese equivalent of a hut and run away. Please do not fall for enemy psy ops, we will go in and dismantle these, but do not start breast beating.


My 2 cents is like many of these, there are many conflicting/competing dimensions to this challenge... yes, there are many (in and outside India) who want NaMo gone for good and India losing is their dream. While no government can absolutely guarantee 0 incursions, no lost land ever, I feel our armed forces and current political leadership has the resolve to slap Xinpoopooes hard enough. Yes, if things go kinetic, there will be losses on both sides. Only NaMo and top military leadership knows the reality on ground and have plan A, B, C... Our adversaries are too accustomed to our leadership doing 'Kadi, Ghor Ninda and not much else...' for too long... They think NaMo will ultimately backdown and will keep looking for signals of that...and keep probing via flaring up things...No guarantees, but this man ain't letting them get away without a significant penalty...he WILL kick them hard at many levels and escalate with the right cost-risk-benefits analysis... Let's pray for his and India's success...and whatever we can (however insignificant) at our individual and collective level...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Prasad » 21 Dec 2020 10:40

https://twitter.com/delhidefence/status ... 65697?s=19
WATCH: Chinese Vehicles seen entering Indian territory in Eastern Ladakh, at Changthang near Nyoma. Strong protests by locals backed by ITBP ensured a retreat by the Chinese, suspected to be PLA soldiers in disguise. The visual is dated a few days ago



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