Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

[John]

I Bet this ceasefire will not hold for long, Azerbhaijan with Turkey and Pakis have tasted blood, they will go for the kill, Amermians if they are smart will not prepare to fight a proper war with a treaty when not if when the next Azeri offensive starts.

Pakistan is not involved heck Azerbaijan even bought arms from Indian private companies, Armenians noted a few planes were sent to Delhi from Az and they were claiming it was to pick up small arms and body armor during the conflict.

The conflict is Turkey/Azerbaijan (with most of Arms supplied by Israel ) vs Armenia/Russia. Armenians made the mistake of solely relying on Russia which help alienate the west and with Gas prices falling Putin has chosen to abandon them for $$ from potential arms deal from Turkey.

[Rony]

Armenians made the mistake of solely relying on Russia which help alienate the west and with Gas prices falling Putin has chosen to abandon them for $$ from potential arms deal from Turkey.

It could also be other way round. Current Armenian president wanted closer ties with West and wanted to reduce his dependence on Russia. Putin showed him his place by denying the help they need.

[John]

Armenians made the mistake of solely relying on Russia which help alienate the west and with Gas prices falling Putin has chosen to abandon them for $$ from potential arms deal from Turkey.

It could also be other way round. Current Armenian president wanted closer ties with West and wanted to reduce his dependence on Russia. Putin showed him his place by denying the help they need.

This will only bring him close to West, already lot of anger among Armenians at Russia as it more or less abandoned them. Not of great way promote russian arms industry as well when you are seeing the Tor and S300 destroyed by Israeli drones. You cannot blame this on incompetent operators.

We see similar case in Libya as well were Putin backed out and only Egyptian threat of invasion forced GNA to accept a ceasefire.

[Philip]

Ru peacekeepers are on the ground ,and will be there for 5 yrs.extendable. While there may be much wailing ,wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth in Yerevan, curses too at Russia,the sad truth is that had Russia not stepped in,it could be worse for Armenia who came off second best,losing much territory in the process. Russia has also consolidated its regional positioning,but it's Erdo and Turkey who have made a huge gain.The Q is,is Erdo spreading his legs too far? From Libya ,Syria to Armenia?

[TKiran]

OT alert / there's a street called Armanian Street in George Town in Madras. It seems they and Portuguese were pally in 16th and 17th century Madras.

Is Roger Binny (1983 WC winning cricket team member), an Armanian origin person?

[Atmavik]

OT alert / there's a street called Armanian Street in George Town in Madras. It seems they and Portuguese were pally in 16th and 17th century Madras.

Is Roger Binny (1983 WC winning cricket team member), an Armanian origin person?

1/2 Scottish. this is going OT. i met a few armenians when i lived in Los Angeles a decade ago. they love Bollywood.

this seems like a real politik by Putin. the Armenian president came to power with a color revolution and had purged pro russia oligarchs. he is now put in his place. there is huge anger in Armnia and the speaker of the parliament was lynched to death.

looking at youtube videos it reminds us of the 1971 war conflict where paki new was reporting victory and then suddenly the surrender came. many Armenians are in shock but they had no option but to surrender.

[Philip]

No,I don't think Roger B is of Armenian ancestry.There was a v.big English textile giant in Madras called Binny's.I think in those days the biggest in the south.. Famous for its cloth nationride. I have visited the Armenian church in Madras,now hardly any Armenians in India,perhaps a few in Calcutta.Bombay,Madras,Cal ,Cochin, were primary centres of the Armenian diaspora. My great-grandmother was an Armenian,from Cochin.

Coming back to the conflict,Armenia has virtually lost all it gained the last time round.A narrow corridor links the NK enclave to the country.A huge win for Azerbaijan and after a century has allowed the Ottomans to perch in the former USSR. Though Ru boots are on the ground keeping the peace,Otttoman mischief can't be ruled out. Let's see where Erdo tilts next.

[Prithwiraj]

Azerbaijan is rich in gas and it shows in the sudden development in their capital Baku. The formula 1 race in Baku Circuit is a proof that the country (Its leadership believes in show-off) has aspirations backed by serious funding from govt.

Armenia on the other hand sadly left looking for crumbs from sympathizers for too long. The only worthwhile export I have heard off from them is exotic wine and great looking women . Sooner or later in a battle of attrition your wealth will be deciding factor in regional traditional conflicts

[John]

OT alert / there's a street called Armanian Street in George Town in Madras. It seems they and Portuguese were pally in 16th and 17th century Madras.

Is Roger Binny (1983 WC winning cricket team member), an Armanian origin person?

1/2 Scottish. this is going OT. i met a few armenians when i lived in Los Angeles a decade ago. they love Bollywood.

this seems like a real politik by Putin. the Armenian president came to power with a color revolution and had purged pro russia oligarchs. he is now put in his place. there is huge anger in Armnia and the speaker of the parliament was lynched to death.

looking at youtube videos it reminds us of the 1971 war conflict where paki new was reporting victory and then suddenly the surrender came. many Armenians are in shock but they had no option but to surrender.

I think this ends any support Russia had in Armenia and brings it under the west there were lot of calls during the conflict to start pushing aside Russian ties from Armenians and with Putin’s betrayal no one will forget that. Interesting how all the pieces are falling around Putin all the while he had Russian friendly president in Trump with tables now turned it will only get worse.

It also highlights overconfidence among Armenia Defense on russian air defenses which failed spectacularly.

[VikramS]

https://www.rferl.org/a/technology-tact ... 49158.html

Technology, Tactics, And Turkish Advice Lead Azerbaijan To Victory In Nagorno-Karabakh

[Paul]

Need to stock up on more CBU-105s as well

[kit]

1/2 Scottish. this is going OT. i met a few armenians when i lived in Los Angeles a decade ago. they love Bollywood.

this seems like a real politik by Putin. the Armenian president came to power with a color revolution and had purged pro russia oligarchs. he is now put in his place. there is huge anger in Armnia and the speaker of the parliament was lynched to death.

looking at youtube videos it reminds us of the 1971 war conflict where paki new was reporting victory and then suddenly the surrender came. many Armenians are in shock but they had no option but to surrender.

I think this ends any support Russia had in Armenia and brings it under the west there were lot of calls during the conflict to start pushing aside Russian ties from Armenians and with Putin’s betrayal no one will forget that. Interesting how all the pieces are falling around Putin all the while he had Russian friendly president in Trump with tables now turned it will only get worse.

It also highlights overconfidence among Armenia Defense on russian air defenses which failed spectacularly.

Stand-off weapons capability, the longer range and highly precise firepower (more the better) backed by real time surveillance and targetting ability. Bring that overwhelming firepower early on and you win, no sense in waiting around. In that sense i predict the next India Pak war will be a short and decisive one. I look at an exponential upgrade in India's firepower and targetting and surveillance capabilities in the coming years. If the Chinese are caught in the cross fire bad for them. CPEC is dead anyway they try to revive it.
(We know what the turks can do and where they stand in an India Pak war.)

[Jarita]

The only overreaching message for India is that we must be armed to teeth. Indigenous should get the biggest push so that we are not dependent on any external group for weapons.
Also anyone proposing disarmament to Indians is really our enemy. Likewise anyone trying to SJW our armed forces is also our enemy.

[Karan M]

As I've been hollering we need new gun systems (the BiHo got cancelled) and better ammo for our L70 guns.
There is a round similar to AHEAD designed specifically for the L70, called the 3P. It should be licensed and made locally.
The BiHo replacement should be fast tracked with small UAV detection and engagement a key part of the revised requirements.

These two improvements will automatically negate a vast number of the UAV systems which put the Armenians on their back foot.

[arvin]

For UAV engagement, we dont seem to have something similar to RPS-42 S-band radar by RADA, Israel.
Hope DRDO develops something similar as part of biho replacement. Should not be difficult considering the expertise in S-band in other applications.
This one is air cooled with far lower power consumption.
Even BIHO parent country South Korea which uses TPS-830K radar (X-band) on biho is using RPS 42 after it was taken by surprise by intruding NK drones.
A bit old article.
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20140409001223

South Korea is revving up efforts to address vulnerabilities in its air defense, which were brought to the fore following the recent discovery of three crashed drones, presumably from North Korea.
Seoul authorities are seeking to introduce 10 Israeli-made RPS-42 low-altitude radars. South Korea and the U.S. are also reportedly considering including anti-drone measures in their joint operational plans.

US marines have them installed on polaris vehicles and credited with taking down an iranian drone last year.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/milita ... ian-drone/

LMADIS is a counter unmanned aerial system (counter-UAS) weapon consisting of two Polaris MRZR scooters: a command vehicle and a jamming vehicle. According to a C4ISRNet article from earlier this year, LMADIS consists of a “RPS-42 tactical air surveillance radar, small EO/IR camera, Skyview RF Detection system and Sierra Nevada MODi RF jammer”.

This appears to be weapon of choice for UAV detection in programs employing HEL against drones and UAVs.

[brar_w]

US marines have them installed on polaris vehicles and credited with taking down an iranian drone last year.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/milita ... ian-drone/

The sensor choice is dictated by the ability to integrate into service networks and the power margins of the platform. It isn't just S-band Rada supplied units that they use. Where possible (SWaP margins) they use the Ku Band AESA (where they need to fire control) as well particularly in its larger avatar where they have more power reserves on larger vehicles. Similarly for HEL programs they will use an additional high frequency inferometric radar (in addition to staring S band arrays) to target things like mortars. The polaris mounted capability is for extreme mobility and transportability (it can maneuver via V-22). MADIS as a program is scalable from M-ATV and JLTV as well (and down to Polaris sized vehicles).

The MADIS system relies on two vehicles per section working in a complementary pair, the MADIS Mk1 and Mk2.[iv] The MADIS Mk1 will be responsible for primarily neutralizing fixed and rotary-wing aircraft. The Mk2 will fulfill the Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System (C-UAS) mission, while also providing radar and C2 for the pair. The Marine corps also has the Light MADIS (LMADIS), which hosts the radar and EW suite on a Polaris MRZR. The LMADIS served as a testbed and interim C-UAS solution before the fielding of the MADIS Mk1 and Mk2. The LMADIS is still in operational use with Marine Corps LAAD battalions.

For kinetic weapons, the Mk1 variant possesses a missile pod holding 4 Stinger missiles. The main direct fire weapon on the turret is a 30mm cannon. Inside the vehicle are handheld Stinger launchers to be used by the crew. The optical sensors for the weapons system is produced by Lockheed Martin.

The electronic warfare system is the Modi II produced by Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC). It is the most advanced dismounted electronic countermeasure (ECM) system in the DoD inventory. It can be used to disrupt enemy drones, communications, and radio-controlled improvised explosive devices (RCIED). Using electronic warfare, air defenders can trick or “spoof” the drone’s navigation system, jam its communications by separating its data link, or defeat fuses and weapons’ triggers[v] The Modi II is the successor to the Thor II/AN PLT-5 and Thor III AN/PLQ-9.

The radar on the MADIS Mk2 is the RPS-42 produced by RADA Electronic Industries Ltd. What makes the radar so unique is that it is able to detect the extremely small radar cross-sections of commercial, off-the-shelf drones that have been proliferated on the modern battlefield by nonstate actors for lethal and nonlethal purposes. The RPS-42 is able to identify and detect targets flying at an altitude of 30 to 30,000 ft within a 30km radius.[vi]

The electronic warfare system is the Modi II, the same as the Mk 1 variant.

The direct-fire weapon on the MADIS Mk2 is an M134 Minigun, a 7.62x51mm NATO six-barrel rotary machine gun with a high, sustained rate of fire (2,000 to 6,000 rounds per minute).[vii]

The Mk 2 as part of its C2 capability will possess a Beyond Line of Sight (BLOS) gateway/server capability.[viii] This will allow the pair to engage targets being spotted by other ground-based radar in the same network. LINK

30mm prox fused rounds will provide a giant leap in capability against UAS threats.



The system isn't perfect and won't be until they introduce a directed-energy layer. Even that is happening as there exists a 20-30 (against Group 1-2 UAS) mag sized HEL mounted on a Polaris currently being tested in Afghanistan this very moment. But it is still a good capability as a baseline. The key takeaway here is that there is really no great area-defense option against this threat. You have to provide this capability at the very tip of the spear and in your mobile formations. And having capability that can scale to meet the unique needs of different types of platforms will make proliferating these systems without your formations much easier in a way that isn't disruptive to how they intend on manuever, deploy, or employ their other weapons. So if you can accommodate larger vehicles, trucks etc then you can scale them up, but if you have mobility and deployability in mind you need something that fits your standard manuever concepts and not slow everyone down.

[krishna_krishna]

I think this ends any support Russia had in Armenia and brings it under the west there were lot of calls during the conflict to start pushing aside Russian ties from Armenians and with Putin’s betrayal no one will forget that. Interesting how all the pieces are falling around Putin all the while he had Russian friendly president in Trump with tables now turned it will only get worse.

It also highlights overconfidence among Armenia Defense on russian air defenses which failed spectacularly.

John I disagree , if recent history is any proof it is a big mistake to write of Russia/Putin. The results are in their favor from Missiles in Poland, to Ukraine and Syria it is Putin who has emerged Viktor. With US surrender in Afghanistan complete, it is the massa that you would not bet on.

With regard to Armenia, Russians brokering a deal means they will get chance to have their own peacekeeepers that Turkey did not want. This brings back Russia totally into the game, yes this is a setback for them but temporarily like they did in syria, eukraine pithing 2-5 years you will see tables turn and turks will realize who the real boss is.

[Philip]

Armenia has to thank Russia for saving the core of the NK enclave.If not,it would've lost almost everything.The 5K Ru peacekeeping boots are saving Armenia's bacon .Ru finally has its troops on the ground in the Caucasus' again,but the Ottoman pretender has upped Turkey's profile. The sending of Turkish mil. experts to run the campaign was a significant factor in the Azeri victory. Putin however kept the pretender on a leash by wiping out dozens of pro- Turk fighters in a massive air strike in Syria.

The Russian use of heavy strat. bombers in conventional fashion,their Bears- soldiering on until 2040,upgraded Backfires and Blackjacks too,new ones being built,should be v.seriously watched by the IAF with its obsession of fighters.The PLAAF have hundreds of Sov.era Tupolev bombers,which with range,payload and LRCMs can cause huge damage to Indian positions across the LAC,even reach major cities and bases in N.India. By contrast,we have nothing that can reach Beijing,Shanghai or any of the major PRC cities or ports situated in the east of the country.This glaring deficiency must be redressed.

[titash]

Armenia has to thank Russia for saving the core of the NK enclave.If not,it would've lost almost everything.The 5K Ru peacekeeping boots are saving Armenia's bacon .Ru finally has its troops on the ground in the Caucasus' again,but the Ottoman pretender has upped Turkey's profile. The sending of Turkish mil. experts to run the campaign was a significant factor in the Azeri victory. Putin however kept the pretender on a leash by wiping out dozens of pro- Turk fighters in a massive air strike in Syria.

The Russian use of heavy strat. bombers in conventional fashion,their Bears- soldiering on until 2040,upgraded Backfires and Blackjacks too,new ones being built,should be v.seriously watched by the IAF with its obsession of fighters.The PLAAF have hundreds of Sov.era Tupolev bombers,which with range,payload and LRCMs can cause huge damage to Indian positions across the LAC,even reach major cities and bases in N.India. By contrast,we have nothing that can reach Beijing,Shanghai or any of the major PRC cities or ports situated in the east of the country.This glaring deficiency must be redressed.

Putin chose not to intervene so the uppity pro western Armenian leader got his comeuppance. He will be disposed off shortly. No one else is allowed to win in Russia's backyard. That is clear to everyone from Georhia to Crimea to Ukraine to Turkey to Armenia. Only Russia writes the rules here.

With respect to China, their population centers are on the east coast and the Tibetian plateau is simply a buffer zone to launch offensives and create strategic depth against counter offensives. A bomber fleet that has to cross this buffer zone is unsurvivable.

Simply put, nuclear submarines with cruise missile packs like the Ohio SSGNs sitting in the South China Sea with make the Chinese think twice before doing something stupid. A cruise missile launched just off your major population centres is a massive deterrent. A bomber fleet that has to cross Tibetian air defences is not.

[John]

John I disagree , if recent history is any proof it is a big mistake to write of Russia/Putin. The results are in their favor from Missiles in Poland, to Ukraine and Syria it is Putin who has emerged Viktor. With US surrender in Afghanistan complete, it is the massa that you would not bet on.

We can see how it turns out but most analysts agree that Putin power influence is rapidly on decline

In Afghanistan Taliban is asserting its over his allies ( Putin even made rare statement supporting US troop presence). In Syria Assad has failed to crush the remaining insurgency and unable to do anything in Turkish enclave even as Turkey is now shipping the militants now to Russian provinces to the south. In Libya his mercenaries and hardware failed miserably it was Egyptian threat that finally forced Gov forces to stopped the offensive. In Armenia anti Russian sentiment is growing and more calls for Western alliance. Azerbaijan has turned into Turkey-Israel proxy right in his backyard. His allies in Belarus, Venezuela and Eastern Ukraine are teethering under economic ruin and facing protests.

[Karan M]

For UAV engagement, we dont seem to have something similar to RPS-42 S-band radar by RADA, Israel.
Hope DRDO develops something similar as part of biho replacement. Should not be difficult considering the expertise in S-band in other applications.
This one is air cooled with far lower power consumption.

Google Aslesha for a S band system. Also the Atulya has a desi X band/Ka band radar.
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/imag ... g&usqp=CAU

The upgraded Schilkas also have an IAI supplied X band FCR.

[arvin]

Ok. Aslesha does the same job as RPS 42 with the difference being former has a multi beam antenna while latter is a AESA.
Weight at 190 kg may be limiting it to be static use. Worthwhile to reduce the form factor and weight (AESA...lesha ??) to make it vehicle mountable as seen on polaris and integrating it with HEL or other fire arms.

[Karan M]

Ok. Aslesha does the same job as RPS 42 with the difference being former has a multi beam antenna while latter is a AESA.
Weight at 190 kg may be limiting it to be static use. Worthwhile to reduce the form factor and weight (AESA...lesha ??) to make it vehicle mountable as seen on polaris and integrating it with HEL or other fire arms.

Aslesha is a semi-active array radar. But why would you want to use a S band surveillance radar for fire control when you have the ability to make X band systems for surveillance and fire control.

[brar_w]

Ok. Aslesha does the same job as RPS 42 with the difference being former has a multi beam antenna while latter is a AESA.
Weight at 190 kg may be limiting it to be static use. Worthwhile to reduce the form factor and weight (AESA...lesha ??) to make it vehicle mountable as seen on polaris and integrating it with HEL or other fire arms.

AESA allows for easier scalability and to create different versions based on platform integration and SwAP margins. Both the S-band RPS-42 / 82 (surveillance sensor which mates to a XBIR if fire-control is required on select systems where this radar is chosen) and the Ku band KuRFS (multi-role fire control) employ scalable architectures that can enhance performance and/or size based on the degree of surveillance or fire-control performance required and platform where it is to be integrated on. Both also use GaN. KuRFS, for example, has accumulated more than a million operational hours as a sensor around the land based CIWS and now and supports larger C-UAS systems and has a smaller scaled variant that supports similar C-UAS tasks on smaller light-vehicle platforms. Both the architecture and the decision to use GaN allows easier scalability especially when you may have higher thermal margins on one platform and have little to no (even air-cooling for example) on another platform. For C-RAM and C-UAS there is a trend of bespoke sensors and portfolio of RF, acoustic and EO/IR sensors that are being designed from the ground up for this mission instead of adaptation of traditional sensors. This allows designers to select and promote architectures and technology that can scale and adapt quickly given how this challenge is adapting and growing itself. It also allows them more freedom to use COTS, MOTS and other components which wouldn’t be usable on a more traditional sensor system they has had requirements framed around the most stressful target it is expected to encounter.

Big brother -



Little brother -

[arvin]

Ok. Aslesha does the same job as RPS 42 with the difference being former has a multi beam antenna while latter is a AESA.
Weight at 190 kg may be limiting it to be static use. Worthwhile to reduce the form factor and weight (AESA...lesha ??) to make it vehicle mountable as seen on polaris and integrating it with HEL or other fire arms.

Aslesha is a semi-active array radar. But why would you want to use a S band surveillance radar for fire control when you have the ability to make X band systems for surveillance and fire control.

This is specific to threats posed by unmanned air systems (UAS) at short ranges. As brar posted above regrds XBIR, S-band along with electro-optic cueing or XBIR is used for hard kill or soft kill (jamming) of UAS.
Between truck mounted Atulya (X , Ka, EO) and static Bharani\Aslesha we dont currently have any compact on the move (OTM) counter UAS solution.

[brar_w]

As brar posted above regrds XBIR, S-band along with electro-optic cueing or XBIR is used for hard kill or soft kill (jamming) of UAS.

The interferometric radar (XBIR) is used against the mortar and rocket/artillery threat and not for the C-UAS role. You can see it installed on the first Stryker based 50 kW HEL which is currently being fabricated and tested. The idea is for these platfroms to be mobile HEL solutions against UAS (where they will use the RBS-42 for 360 degree surveillance) and as static sectored Counter-RAM HEL layer when guarding infrastructure or troops when they are not on the move.



None of the US applications of the RPS 42 involve it performing fire-control duties. In fact none of the weapons mounted on those vehicles (where the RPS-42 is used) require a fire control radar. They are either fire-forget or EO/IR guided(able). For C-UAS solutions where they need fire-control (like the Howler) they don't use the RPS-42 but instead use the KuRFS (which is a Ku band GaN AESA that comes in two sizes as shown in prior post). Both these platforms receive medium ranged sensor feeds as they are networked. Both the US Army and the USMC have medium ranged radars that are helicopter deployable that can provide wider coverage and feed data into these smaller tactical systems. RPS-42 is there for providing 360 degree staring short range surveillance that helps identify threats at stand off ranges so that the weapons can be cued to them. This is important because they identified an organic RF sensor need for 360 degree surveillance as some of these Group 1-2 UAS fly so low that providing wide-area surveillance against them is tricky (this is how the Stryker based SHORAD is different from the old Avenger) so instead of a centralzied RF sensor providing data to multiple vehicles, they've included that and organic 360 degree staring sensors as a second layer of longer range surveillance relative to EO/IR or other passive sensors given that a centralized sensor, farther away, may completely miss detecting small UASs early enough to allow for targeting (because of sensor or LOS limitations).

[Atmavik]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sGHxZkZReo

The ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN Peace Agreement over NAGORNO-KARABAKH.

interesting analysis on the peace deal. looks like not completely taking over NAGORNO-KARABAKH has some advantages for the Azeri's

as part of the agreement a road is to be built to connect Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivian encalve. this removes the Azeri dependence on Iran and now allows a direct road link to turkey.

[Aditya_V]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sGHxZkZReo

The ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN Peace Agreement over NAGORNO-KARABAKH.

interesting analysis on the peace deal. looks like not completely taking over NAGORNO-KARABAKH has some advantages for the Azeri's

as part of the agreement a road is to be built to connect Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivian encalve. this removes the Azeri dependence on Iran and now allows a direct road link to turkey.

But the road will be controlled by Russian checkpoints.

[John]

Checkpoints with bunch of peacekeepers isn’t going to stop Turkey ( and Israel benefits from latter) from sending over fighters from Syria to infiltrate Russian southern provinces and Iran which has been its end game. Iran threat of an attack is what forced them into ceasefire and Putin has been MIA in spite of knowing clearly of what’s happening (Syrian army and Kurdish fighters have sized evidence pointing to this for last 6 months).

[Y. Kanan]

It could also be other way round. Current Armenian president wanted closer ties with West and wanted to reduce his dependence on Russia. Putin showed him his place by denying the help they need.

I don't think it was the other way around. I think Erdogan caught Putin by surprise, yet again, just as he did in Idlib (Syria) and later, in Libya. Turkey has become quite the thorn in Russia's side lately. Russia is in pure reactive mode nowadays, just hoping to keep the Turks from now spreading their influence deeper into the Caucasus. The Turks have gotten really good at hybrid warfare, using jihadist\mercenary proxies on the ground, drones, and their own military when needed. Russia so far has been outmatched, and with the Isrealis + NATO supporting Turkey behind the scenes, I don't see how Russia can prevail long term.

[jamwal]

I had written it as a quick article:

Lessons for India about drone warfare in Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

Few thoughts over so much “analysis” of Armenia-Azerbaijan war, effect of drones on modern warfare & how it figures in Indian context.

First, Armenia which was on receiving end:


1. Armenia had only ancient Soviet era defense systems Strela, Buk & Osa, that too in very small numbers spread over a very large area. Their air defense and battlefield radar surveillance capability was virtually non-existent.


2. Even Amrenian S-300 PM were 35 years old and were designed for defence against cruise missiles & aircraft. This old tech can’t engage more than a handful of targets at a time and was never designed for defence against small drones. Even most modern defence systems are vulnerable to saturation attacks that Azeris did.

3. One of the strongest AD against drones is Electronic Warfare and Jamming. Low tech drones with limited LOS used by Azeris can be jammed fairly easily. Yet Armenians lacked even this basic EW warfare capability.

4. Almost all of Azeri hits were on isolated Armenian targets which had low to nil AD cover.

5. Only aircraft which can shootdown drones in Armenian Air Force are 4 Su-30SM and 15 Mi-24. Total of 4 jets and 15 old helicopters is not even barely enough,


6. Only comparatively strong air defence systems that drones have been able to penetrate successfully in last few years is Saudi. There, it was mostly due to incompetence and unpreparedness.

Now about India.

India sure lacks cheap attack drones in large numbers. Yet it doesn’t mean that we need to start panicking and start cycle of emergency purchases. For one, India has a fairly robust defense system and second, drones are not the unstoppable wonder weapons that many people think they are.

1. Indian troops are using cheap drones for surveillance for many years now on LoC and LAC. Just go through news reports of drone shootdowns in the region. Majority of these drones can be brought down by machine gun fire. A vast majority of cheap drones rely on navigation line of sight which is more often than not a luxury in mountainous borders.


2. Most of these quadcopter type drones are virtually unusable in high altitude areas due to thin air, cold and strong winds.


3. India is already using multiple advanced Indian, Israeli and now American drones including a few armed ones like Harpy for many years. DRDO and private sector are involved in R&D and production of different types of such drones.

4. Unlike Armenians, Indian AD systems include multiple layers of radars, EW systems, guns and SHOARDS like AD guns, shoulder launched missiles and supported by their long ranged counterparts. Even Indian navy has more combat enabled aircraft than few countries like Armenia combined. Some dedicated anti-drone systems have already been deployed like Ashlesha, Bharani radars and a yet unnamed portable anti-drone system by DRDO.


In nutshell:

Are drones a serious threat? Yes. But not as much as they are to weak countries like Armenia or incompetent types like Saudi Arabia.
Are we doing anything about increasing our defensive & offensive capabilities wrt drones? Yes.

[hnair]

Excellent overview post jamwal-saar, too many dhoti shivering over Turkish propaganda BS on the drones. A disciplined military force would have regrouped and retaliated using methods you listed against the azeris by now, but Armenians does not seem to be one. This despite being at the receiving end of a gruesome Turkish genocide that is being brazenly swept under carpet by erdogan

John, my charitable view is that putin seem to be slowly using US as a backdrop to push erdogan to his side. A policy fraught with risks and at best he gets an ally with dubious standing in the world. Be it killing an amby at a press conference or shooting down planes, putin seem to be following our own UPA govt’s dossier-throw approach towards Istanbul for no reason.

As for erdogan, he seem to be flailing about in all directions and letting his mijjile lead his country. From Europe to US, he has pissed off most leaders. These are the powers who pay through the nose for countries like Turkey and pakis’ geographical position as strategic crossroads etc. Not xitler and not putin. To me, his only achievement recently is that he did the impossible - make a significant chunk of Kerala orthodox Christians vote for BJP due to his takeover of Hagia Sofia.

[John]

Even Amrenian S-300 PM were 35 years old and were designed for defence against cruise missiles & aircraft. This old tech can’t engage more than a handful of targets at a time and was never designed for defence against small drones. Even most modern defence systems are vulnerable to saturation attacks that Azeris did.

That is incorrect Russia extensively updated them and there were no saturation drone strikes at most handful drones were operating. Armenia also lost Tor SAM which were assigned to protect S-300 from drones.

I know we likely to support Russia but let's be brutally honest even Armenians admit the Russian systems turned out to be junk were easily jammed and struggled to even deal with Drones or Turkish F-16s one which Even shot down Su-25.

“ Top Russian military officials said at the time that Moscow has further upgraded Armenia’s anti-aircraft capacity and trained Armenian specialists to operate S-300s. ”

[jamwal]

I have no love for Russians.
Even with upgrades, S-300PM has a lot of limitations which are hard to remove for a 35 years old system. It maybe good against planes and cruise missiles but simply has nothing to offer against small drones.
TOR has been a failure even in Georgia and Ukraine(?). Russians tried to cram in too much (much like Indian army) in a small platform like ability to fire even while moving and failed miserably.

[John]

I have no love for Russians.
Even with upgrades, S-300PM has a lot of limitations which are hard to remove for a 35 years old system. It maybe good against planes and cruise missiles but simply has nothing to offer against small drones.
TOR has been a failure even in Georgia and Ukraine(?). Russians tried to cram in too much (much like Indian army) in a small platform like ability to fire even while moving and failed miserably.

I understand my bad see a lot of blind Russian PR getting spewed out. The drones the filmed the S-300 kill was TB-2 which by no means is small or stealthy and should have larger frontal cross section bigger than a cruise missile and definetly much bigger than banshee drones we use for missile tests.

[brar_w]

Unless one is talking about quadcopters or Group 1 UASs, Cruise Missiles are a more stressing target set for the sensor system than many Group 2 or larger UAV. RCS aside, this is also because the UAV's that are doing ISR or strike are themselves reliant on the same comms LOS or IR sensor FOV limitations for them to be effective at either ISR or strike. This means that many low-level trajectories are off-limits unless BLOS links or third party targeting is available. Cruise missiles, on the other hand, can fly optimal trajectories until much later as they are usually guided with known coordinates in mind (or get updates from a third party) and don't need to discriminate, until the very last minute, if at all. So they may be capable of testing the sensor limits much more than a relatively simple UAS that has to maintain communication and has to use an EO/IR sensor to provide targeting information back to the base station (or for targeting itself or its weapons on to the target). It will always be more exposed. This is why UAV launched smaller UAVs/LMs are now coming online. This is even more true when the cruise missiles isn’t targeting the IADS itself but a different target that stresses the limits or the defended area given the various aspects or the weapon and flight.

[nvishal]

India lost an opportunity to go inside Armenia militarily and understand turkeys firepower.

Added later: Armenia seems to have suffered for NATOs involvement with turkeys war in Syria. In plain words, Armenia will not receive security guarantees from Russia until NATO/Americans withdraw support to turkey wrt the war in Syria.

[John]

India lost an opportunity to go inside Armenia militarily and understand turkeys firepower.

Added later: Armenia seems to have suffered for NATOs involvement with turkeys war in Syria. In plain words, Armenia will not receive security guarantees from Russia until NATO/Americans withdraw support to turkey wrt the war in Syria.

I have no idea what you are saying, what does Armenia have to do with NATO. Armenians were in fact allied with Syrian government.

[nvishal]

When I asked a Russian interlocutor why Moscow isn’t more supportive of its ally(Armenia), they responded in even starker terms: “NATO isn’t supposed to support Turkey’s military adventures in foreign lands, be it northern Syria or Libya, right? So, why should Russia support Armenian military adventures in foreign, Azeri, lands?”

A captive ally: Why Russia isn’t rushing to Armenia’s aid

[John]

When I asked a Russian interlocutor why Moscow isn’t more supportive of its ally(Armenia), they responded in even starker terms: “NATO isn’t supposed to support Turkey’s military adventures in foreign lands, be it northern Syria or Libya, right? So, why should Russia support Armenian military adventures in foreign, Azeri, lands?”

A captive ally: Why Russia isn’t rushing to Armenia’s aid

It is pan European think tank portraying Putin as weakening would go against its purpose you need a bogeyman to justify it.