Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

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tsarkar
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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby tsarkar » 08 Oct 2020 11:35

Deleted as it was fake. Was being circulated on fauji Whatsapp groups today morning. We aren't very computer or game savvy. The gentleman who sent it to me is retired DG NSG and all of us got fooled given the overall darkness and realistic tracers and flares.

Thanks for the fact check, gentlemen. My apologies for a silly wrong post.
Last edited by tsarkar on 08 Oct 2020 15:33, edited 2 times in total.

Aditya_V
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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Aditya_V » 08 Oct 2020 11:58

Well that Pilot nearly took out the Shilka in Kamikazee style attack, but shows even with a Shilka it was difficult to shoot a manuvering aircraft at close quarters, Air defence missiles are better and aircraft are much better off with AGM 65 type PGM's,

Manish_P
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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Manish_P » 08 Oct 2020 12:32

Isn't that a game ?

This one certainly is..

<deleted youtube video of game>
Last edited by Manish_P on 08 Oct 2020 16:10, edited 1 time in total.

Aditya_V
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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Aditya_V » 08 Oct 2020 12:48

Highly likely a game as no pilot in real life would be that suicidal.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Manish_P » 08 Oct 2020 13:36

Nowadays it's quiet difficult to say (more so for non mil-background folk).. with games becoming very realistic in display.

nam
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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby nam » 08 Oct 2020 14:39

It is clearly a game video.

Manish_P
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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Manish_P » 08 Oct 2020 16:17

tsarkar wrote:Deleted as it was fake. Was being circulated on fauji Whatsapp groups today morning. We aren't very computer or game savvy. The gentleman who sent it to me is retired DG NSG and all of us got fooled given the overall darkness and realistic tracers and flares.

Thanks for the fact check, gentlemen. My apologies for a silly wrong post.


Quiet understandable, Sir.

As it is games now-a-days are very realistic. If you get videos, especially low res ones (more so of night time), then it becomes quite tough to ascertain. At least if the video player opens in youtube itself then you get to see similar videos at the side bar (and in some cases some illuminating comments from other users)

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Aditya_V » 09 Oct 2020 12:11

Any news of what is happening, is Azherbaijan winning and throwign out Armenia as the Turkic and Paki twitter accounts are saying, is it a stalemate, very little news on what is actually happening and whether any territory has changed hands.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Philip » 10 Oct 2020 14:32

https://sputniknews.com/world/202010101 ... unchanged/

A ceasefire is the latest news flash
.

arabakh Ceasefire Takes Effect Under Armenia-Azerbaijan Deal
The humanitarian ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding regions went into effect at noon (08:00 GMT) on Saturday in accordance with the agreement reached overnight by Armenia and Azerbaijan in Moscow.

The ceasefire is intended to allow both sides to recuperate forces and exchange captured individuals from either side.
Both sides agreed to carry on more substantive talks in Moscow throughout Saturday.

Azerbaijani Missiles Hit Karabakh Capital Ahead of the Ceasefire, Reports Say
Azerbaijan has intensified its air campaign on population points in Nagorno-Karabakh hours before the humanitarian ceasefire agreed between Baku and Yerevan was set to take effect, the Armenian Defense Ministry said on Saturday.

"After the statement of MFAs of #Russia, #Armenia & #Azerbaijan, the enemy intensified the use of UAVs in the southern direction. The units of the #DefenseArmy halt all the attacks of the enemy, causing heavy losses to manpower," Defense Ministry Spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan wrote on Twitter.

The Armenian Defense Ministry separately reported that drone attacks have targeted the Yeritsvank and Artsvanik settlements in the disputed territory.

The Armenia-aligned, unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic’s own defense department, for its part, confirmed that air raids in addition to ground combat in the leadup to the ceasefire at noon local time (08:00 GMT).

"At present, the fighting on the front line continues with varying intensity. The most fierce battles are in the south. The enemy makes extensive use of strike aircraft," the so-called Artsakh Defense Army wrote on its Telegram channel.

Aditya_V
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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Aditya_V » 10 Oct 2020 15:07

Its like Syria, unless Armenia inflict causualties on the Turkey supported ISIS horde there will be no ceasefire.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby brar_w » 10 Oct 2020 19:23

Looks like (video in the link below) one of their loitering munitions took out a 36D6 S-band acquisition radar -

https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/1314850918823849985

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby John » 10 Oct 2020 21:55

Apart from success with drones. Azerbaijan forces have been doing poorly on the ground haven’t been able to capture anything significant and seem to have lost more than dozen T-72/T-90/BTR/BMP to Armenian forces ( why the heck do you abandon perfectly intact tanks is beyond my comprehension) . Seem to have moved to human wave tactics using Syrian mercs and most of them seem to retreat on sight of artillery and gunfire.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 10 Oct 2020 22:45

Rahul M wrote:Thank you MK sir, I never went away but these days get very little time to post.
================

This is background of the disputed region, from their POV. While not strictly military, althought it does cover some of those, it's still good starting point to understand the genesis of the conflict. This channel in general does a decent job of covering issues others dont and does not toe the 'party line'.
When I first watched this couple of years back I had no idea this would snowball into a war.
Strongly recommended.


RahulM ji, your post triggered a search. Ended up with this book. A slightly different take on historical context of Armenian Genocide. Very interesting observations though it's limited to a chapter or so. But tons of information regarding Turkey and the root of problems in the Caucasus and Balkans.

All I can say is that in war the victor writes the history and there are no good guys or bad guys. The Armenians just happened to be caught up between two great powers.

Should go in our list of good reads - The Fall Of The Ottomans- Eugene Rogan. Overall a great starting point if you want an historical understanding of the arrogance of Turkey under Erdogan.

Image

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby brar_w » 11 Oct 2020 20:36

Potential loitering munition strike on SA-6 components

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1315290431438172160

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby nam » 11 Oct 2020 21:38

The shock and awe of drone videos, is possible because there is no proper air power with Armenia. And with Azeris, which means the drones are the best and cheapest way of providing CAS.

The lesson for us is NOT getting expensive ATGM armed drones.

It is
1. getting lots of cheap drones for ISR, link them to our artillery and CAS, to provide instant fire support on demand.
2. Loitering drones for short range attacks for infantry.
3. Air launched ATGM for fighters to carry them in numbers.
4. Air launched swarm loitering drones for attacking SAM locations.
5. Manpads for infantry to take out these drones.
6. Better radars on our SAM system to track these low RCS drones and loitering ammo.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby brar_w » 11 Oct 2020 22:12

The arrival of weapons like the Joint Strike Missile (and systems that offshoot from Gray Wolf like work will kick this into another gear) basically changes the equation of how a strike oriented MALE drone can be kitted against a better equipped and trained opponent. With a good passive (or passive+active) medium to long range targeting system, what was once a hellfire/ATGM carrying terrorist hunter, becomes a long-loiter medium-long range strike system fairly easily and affordably. This is the future where these MALE systems are probably headed. They will stand back and use their sensors and persistence (ability to efficiently hold orbits) while sending Air launched effects (some single use, while others recoverable) for additional stand-in targeting.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby John » 11 Oct 2020 22:35

In lot of drone videos we don’t see the result of the hit in fact if you slow down some of videos you can clearly see the tank hits didn’t do any damage. In fact in one video they hit two tanks parked by each other, after first tank is hit they show another video where they hit 2nd tank and first tank you can clearly see didn’t have any damage. So from my perspective they seem to be good at hitting trucks but seem to be failing badly at attacks on APC and Tanks

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby hnair » 11 Oct 2020 22:48

These Turkish/Israeli drones must be LOS controlled, since Turkey seem to be still struggling with satcom capable heavy UAV and Israel will get punched by Khan over MTCR. Their TAI Anka-S had a total of just 3 delivered about a year back. And due to its deficiencies, seem to be going for a newer and bigger version of Anka, the TAI Aksungur which has a first flight last year and the second manufacturer, Bayraktar Akinci seem to be even more early stages. Both seem to be Rustom2 class with two podded tractor propellers but is lagging behind Rustom2 by two years or so, thanks to Khan’s nyet on certain tech, most probably the satcom. For contrast, Rustom2 at this point seem to have around 7 units manufactured(with one crashed and written off) and for testing and seem to be more down the road.

Back to the loitering munitions - since they don’t have satcom yet, these seem to have good video feed, which means Ground control must be close by for strong signal from a relatively lower power source loitering munition. Wondering how good is singint of Armenians in triangulation of base stations or if used by smaller manportable units, triangulation and jamming

Let the drones be in the air, but triangulating and taking out the link or base station or humans operating them with artillery or special forces seem to be beyond the Armenians at this point

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby brar_w » 11 Oct 2020 22:52

John wrote:In lot of drone videos we don’t see the result of the hit in fact if you slow down some of videos you can clearly see the tank hits didn’t do any damage. In fact in one video they hit two tanks parked by each other, after first tank is hit they show another video where they hit 2nd tank and first tank you can clearly see didn’t have any damage. So from my perspective they seem to be good at hitting trucks but seem to be failing badly at attacks on APC and Tanks


That may be a limitation of some of the munitions used in the conflict but not loitering munitions per say. The Switchblade 600 for example managed to accommodate the Javelin multipurpose warhead so should have acceptable anti-armor capability for the desired mission. It being a man-portable system is space/weight/size constraint. But if you have a vehicle based systems you can design larger loitering munitions that pack even a larger punch for area affects for example.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby John » 11 Oct 2020 22:57

^ Yes another thing I find interesting is Az. seems to be not employing any Close air support even using drones most often attacking by sending in some T-90 at enemy positions backed by some APCs and as a result unable to hold down any position in counter attacks. Which leads to my theory drones are operated by Turkish operators who seem to be not coordinating with Azerbaijan.

Interesting why they haven’t sent in atleast Mi-24s to provide some air cover without it just one or two squad of Armenia soldiers armed with anti tank missiles can knock out dozen vehicles.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby brar_w » 11 Oct 2020 23:24

hnair wrote:Back to the loitering munitions - since they don’t have satcom yet, these seem to have good video feed, which means Ground control must be close by for strong signal from a relatively lower power source loitering munition. Wondering how good is singint of Armenians in triangulation of base stations or if used by smaller manportable units, triangulation and jamming


Outside of this conflict, this is an issue that can be solved by multiple means depending upon size and cost of the selected munitions. Autonomy in navigation and targeting (with operator in the loop for discrimination and trigger). Using FMV for WIA is (leave aside PR benefits) is somewhat of a poor way to do this from a survivability and efficiency perspective (in high end conflict bandwidth will always be degraded). Ideally, you would want smart sensors across multiple drones doing WIA and communicating via data-link (much lower bandwidth demands relative to transmitting FMV) and the targeting correlated for success (this is how sensor fusion does it). For applications where a high bandwidth tactical DL is absolutely required, you can establish an airborne, medium-long range adhoc mesh network that reduces the burden of daisy chaining several ground data-link stations that could come under attack or otherwise be limited. This is already becoming a reality. For the absolute higher end applications in these munition class, WIA via SATCOM is a perfectly legitimate way of doing it (though you have to be frugal in bandwidth allotment so until huge LEO constellations proliferate this will be a last-resort option for loitering munitions below a certain cost/capability threshold). In-service, dedicated, S/DEAD weapons already do this but it's probably not a very efficient way to do WIA for every armor or dismounted infantry target where you want to use cheap drones on. Also note that tactical data links, like L-16, are going to space.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Y. Kanan » 25 Oct 2020 03:25

Turkey has become the regional jihad-spreading powerhouse that Pakistan always dreamed of becoming. The way Turkey organizes and fields these armies of jihadists in Syria, Libya, and now Azerbaijan is very remiscent of how Pakistan formed the Taliban.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby anupmisra » 25 Oct 2020 22:52

My monthly contribution.

While the discussion on BRF is on the subject of the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict and our collective fascination with this region, here's an interesting article. Take it for what it is worth. For sane discussion purposes. Please note that spelling and syntax errors are from the original documents (and, hence, not mine). My interest on this topic stems from the fact that my ancestors, per records, moved to the Kanyakubj/Kannauj region in +/- 330 BC (not sure from where). Kannauj is also where this story first takes place.

This post could also be on the OIT thread as well.

Hindoos in Armenia, by Dr. Mesrob Jacob Seth
The Unknown Chapter in the History of Ancient India and Armenia

The first authentic record we have of the connection of the Armenians with India is to be found in the work of Zenob, one of the earliest classical writers who flourished in Christian Armenia in the
beginning of the 4th century.
Zenob, or Zenobias, who was a Syrian and one of the first disciples of St.Gregory the Illuminator the Apostle of Armenia-wrote, at the instance of his master, a History of Taron (an important province in W. Armenia, current Turkey) and in that work he refers to the history of a Hindoo colony that had existed in Armenia since the middle of the second century before the commencement of the Christian era and going back to the prior beginning of the Hindoo colony on
Armenian soil in the days of remote antiquity.
It appears from Zenob's account that two Hindoo Princes of far-famed Kanauj, named Gissaneh and Demeter, had conspired against Dinakspall, the King of Kanauj, and on the discovery of the plot, which spelt death for the two princes, they had no alternative but to seek refuge in flight, and to far-off Armenia they fled, and there they not only found an asylum, but were accorded a welcome befitting their princely dignity by their royal patron, King Valarsaces (a brother of Arsaces the Great) and the founder of the Arsacidae dynasty which ruled in Armenia from 149 B.C. to 428.A.D.
This event occured in 149 B.C. The Armenian King, who was evidently pleased with the Hindoo refugees, allotted them the province of Taron where they built themselves a nice city which they called Veeshap, which in Armenian means a Dragon, since they were of the Takshak House, which, as every student of Hindoo Mythology knows, signifies the Dragon. They then went to the Armenian city of Ashtishat, famous for its temples of the national gods and goddesses of heathen Armenia and there they set up the gods which they had worshipped in India.
They were not however destined to enjoy a long period of undisturbed peace and freedom in the land of their adoption, for they were, 15 years after their arrival in Armenia, put to death by the king for which no reasons or motives are assigned by the native historian, perhaps they had, as in India, hatched a conspiracy against their royal patron or abused his hospitality, hence the condign punishment meted out them by the Armenian king.
According to the Armenian historian, these two princes left three sons whose names were Kuars, Meghtes and Horean, and the Armenian king, bestowed on them the government of the colony and the principality of the province of Taron.
Kuars built a small city and called it Kuar after his own name. Meghtes similarly built his city and named it Meghti after himself, whilst Horean built his city in the province of Poloonean and called it Horeans.
Being new to the country, they were evidently not satisfied with the first selection of sites their habitations, so after some time they resolved amongst themselves to find fresh fields and pastures anew, so they went to the mountain called Kharkh and finding it an ideal place by reason of its beautiful and favourable situation, they built themselves untill 4th century, A.D. or a period of 450 years. And this is where they built their city and put up two gods named as Gisaneh and Demeter, after their murdered fathers whom they had deified.
These gods were made entirely of brass, the former, according to Zenob, was twelve cubits high, and the latter fifteen cubits and the priests that were appointed for the service of these gods were all Hindoos. Under the auspices of a heathen government, in whose eyes they had evidently found great favour, the Hindoo colony flourished for a considerable time in Armenia, but with the dawn of Christianity in idolatrous Armenia in the year of 301 A.D. the tide of royal kindness began to ebb and ebb very swiftly, for the Indian gods shared the fate of the national gods and goddesses, which were destroyed by that relentless iconoclast, St.Gregory the Illuminator, who had the famous temples of Gisaneh and Demeter razed to the ground, the images broken to pieces whilst the Hindoo priests who offered resistance were murdered on the spot, as faithfully chronicled by Zenob who was an eye-witness of the destruction of the Hindoo temples and the gods.
On the site of these two temples, St.Gregory had a monastery erected
The Hindoo priests attached to the temples of Gisaneh and Demeter, seeing the destruction of their national gods and their temples, with tears in their eyes entreated the victorious Armenians, their erstwhile brother idolators, to put them to death rather than destroy their mighty god Gisaneh, and for the resistance that they offered to the victors, six of the Hindoo priests were killed on the spot.
According to Zenob, who as i have said was a disciple of Apostle of Armenia, and an eye-witness of the events he narrates, the Hindoos that were baptised on the first day of Navasard, (the ancient Armenian New Year day)numbered 5,050 and these were composed of men and children only, as the females were, it appears excluded from that number and baptised on another day specially appointed for the occasion.
Some of these converted Hindoos adhered tenaciously to the idolatrous practices of their foreafathers, despite the paternal persuasions and the exhortations of St.Gregory.
From the narrative of Zenob, the Syrian, it appears that the Hindoo colony had, since their settlement in Armenia in the year 150 B.C. to the day of the memorable battle in the year 301 A.D. a period of 450 years, multiplied and increased considerably and formed a distinct and an important colony of their own in the fertile province of Taron where in the year 286 A.D. a Chinese colony had also settled under Mamgoon, the founder of the house of Mamikonian which gave a Vardan to Armenia who fought the Sassanians when they wanted to force the religon of Zoroaster on Christian Armenia in the year 451 A.D.
And this is how Zenob, the Syrian, describes the Hindoos whom he sees for the first time on his arrival in Armenia, with St.Gregory, the Illuminator, in the year 301 A.D. "This people has a most extraordinary appearance for they were black, long-haired and unpleasant to the sight, as they were Hindoos by race.


And the article, which is in three parts, gets more racist and xenophobic, which is perhaps the reason why I have not reproduced it here in toto. By the way, Taron was (is) in Eastern Turkey.

Source: http://www.angelfire.com/hi/Azgaser/hindus.html

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby IndraD » 26 Oct 2020 00:53

https://www.wionews.com/opinions-blogs/ ... der-336424

War in the Caucasus: One more effort to shape a new world order

The stakes for Azerbaijan, backed if not egged on by Turkey, are high as the Azeri capital’s Baku International Sea Trade Port seeks to solidify its head start in its competition with Russian, Iranian, Turkmen and Kazakh Caspian Sea harbours, to be a key node in competing Eurasian transport corridors. Baku is likely to emerge as the Caspian’s largest trading port.

An Azeri success in clawing back some Armenian-occupied areas of Azerbaijan, captured by Armenia in the early 1990s, would bolster Baku’s bid to be the Caspian’s premier port at the crossroads of Central Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

The Caspian is at the intersection of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) from China to Europe via Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) that aims to connect India via Iran and Russia to Europe.

An Azeri military success would also cement Turkey’s claim to be a player in former Soviet lands that Russia views as its sphere of influence and bolster nationalist sentiment among Iranians of ethnic Azeri descent that account for up to 25 per cent of the Islamic republic’s population, many of whom have risen to prominence in the Iranian power structure.

In an indication of passions that the conflict in the Caucasus evokes, Iranians in areas bordering Azerbaijan often stand on hilltops to watch the fighting in the distance.

Iranian security forces have recently clashed with ethnic Azeri demonstrators in various cities chanting "Karabakh is ours. It will remain ours."

The demonstrators were referring to Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan that is at the core of the conflict in the Caucasus.

The demonstrations serve as a reminder of environmental protests in the Iranian province of East Azerbaijan at the time of the 2011 popular Arab revolts that often turned into manifestations of Azeri nationalism.

Baku port’s competitive position was bolstered on the eve of the eruption of fighting in the Caucasus with the launch of new railway routes from China to Europe that transit Azerbaijan and Turkey.

China last month inaugurated a new railway route from Jinhua in eastern China to Baku, which would reduce transport time by a third.

In June, China dispatched its second train from the central Chinese city of Xi’an to Istanbul via Baku from where it connects to a rail line to the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, the eastern Turkish city of Kars and onwards to Istanbul.

Azeri analysts charge that Armenian occupation of Azeri territory and demands for independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, threaten Baku’s position as a key node in Eurasian transport corridors.

“By continuing its occupation Armenia poses (a) threat not only to Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity but also to the regional stability and cooperation,” said Orkhan Baghirov, a senior researcher at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations, a think tank with close ties to the government.

Mr Baghirov was referring to recent Russian, Iranian, Turkmen and Kazakh efforts to match Baku in upgrading their Caspian Sea ports in anticipation of the TITR and INSTC taking off.

Russia is redeveloping Lagan Port into the country’s first ice-free Caspian Sea harbour capable of handling transhipment of 12.5 million tonnes. The port is intended to boost trade with the Gulf as well as shipment from India via Iran.

Lagan would allow Russia to tap into the TITR that is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) via the Russian railway system as well as Kazakh, Turkmen, and Azeri ports.

It would also bolster Russian, Iranian and Indian efforts to get off the ground the INSTC that would hook up Caspian Sea ports to create a corridor from India to Russia via Iran, and in competition with the Suez Canal, to northern Europe.

The INSTC would initially link Jawaharlal Nehru Port, India’s largest container port east of Mumbai, through the Iranian deep-sea port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman, funded by India to bypass Pakistan and its Caspian Sea port of Bandar-e-Anzali to Russia’s Volga River harbour of Astrakhan and onwards by rail to Europe.



Iranian and Indian officials suggest the route would significantly cut shipping time and costs from India to Europe. Senior Indian Commerce Ministry official BB Swain said the hook up would reduce travel distance by 40 and cost by 30 per cent.

Iran is further investing in increased capacity and connectivity at its Amirabad port while at the same time emphasizing its naval capabilities in the Caspian.


For their part, Turkmenistan inaugurated in 2018 its US$1.5 billion Turkmenbashi Sea Port while Kazakhstan that same year unveiled its Kuryk port.

The fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia with Turkey and Israel supporting the Azeris; Russia struggling to achieve a sustainable ceasefire; Iran seeking to walk a fine line in fighting just across its border; and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates attempting to stymie Iranian advances wherever they can, threatens to overlay port competition in the Caspian with aspects of the Middle East’s myriad conflicts.

Said Iran scholar Shireen T Hunter: “Largely because of the Iran factor, the Caucasus has become linked with Middle East issues. Israel and Saudi Arabia have tried to squeeze Iran through Azerbaijan… Thus, how the conflict evolves and ends could affect Middle East power calculations…. An expanded conflict would pose policy challenges for major international players.”

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby chola » 26 Oct 2020 19:05

Drone warfare is now ubiquitous among muslims. What the Azeris are doing to the Armenians is more than a bit frightful. I never thought Azerbaijan would be using these things in such volume (and from the Isarelis too!) The Saudid, Turks, Iranians, Kuwaities, Jordanians, etc. had been buying this stuff in volume. Any doubts that the Pakis will be using them too? Obviously the chinis will.

This war and this form of warfare is foreshadowing what's to come.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/attack-drones-dominating-tanks-as-armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-showcases-the-future-of-war


Attack Drones Dominating Tanks as Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Showcases the Future of War


Azerbaijan’s Turkish and Israeli drones are wiping out tanks, artillery, and soldiers as the Armenians lose ground in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Stefan Weichert
Updated Oct. 26, 2020 7:59AM ET

STEPANAKERT, Nagorno-Karabakh—Stretched on a gurney, a soldier lies wrapped in gauze. Fifty percent of his body is burned, even inside his throat and lungs, says one of the paramedics in the back of the ambulance, which is making a seven-hour drive from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia’s capital Yerevan. War broke out almost one month ago between Azerbaijan and Armenia over a disputed border territory.

The ambulance snuck out of Stepanakert in between air raid sirens, as Azerbaijani shelling of the city picked up again after a six-day break. Only the soldier’s burned lips, a small part of the nose and his burnt eyelashes are showing. His hopes of survival are tied to a beeping respirator and the two paramedics constantly injecting him with morphine and saline solutions.

Reporters have been kept away from soldiers and the direct impact of the war in recent days, but plans scrambled by the reinvigorated shelling of Stepanakert lead to The Daily Beast suddenly finding ourselves in the back of this ambulance, being given an accidental glimpse at the human consequences of the war.

Kamikaze drones purchased from Israel have been used to devastating effect by Azerbaijan. These small craft also known as loitering munitions are able to surveil targets including tanks, artillery installations or troops before blowing themselves up. Larger Turkish drones are also flying high above the disputed region and launching missile strikes.
...

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby ParGha » 26 Oct 2020 22:34

Ralph Peters called it in “The War After Armageddon”.

Philip
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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Philip » 27 Oct 2020 07:55

Israeli drones,Harop?

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Manish_P » 28 Oct 2020 12:57

hnair wrote:These Turkish/Israeli drones must be LOS controlled, since Turkey seem to be still struggling with satcom capable heavy UAV and Israel will get punched by Khan over MTCR. ...


Found this on twitter... if accurate, basically an advanced form of pakistaniyat. And the way Turkey is marching towards caliphate, they will find western tech doors and windows closing faster

Image

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby brar_w » 29 Oct 2020 01:40

^^ Turkey is a bit of a copy cat in ripping western designs where possible within a budget and schedule. There are a few systems that they have literally just cloned with the most latest being a Small Diameter Bomb knockoff and their Kalkan radar which is Senitnel A2/3 inspired/cloned. However some of these commercially available sub-systems, and other military systems are probably too costly to replicate for them while still fielding these cheaply and in numbers.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby chola » 29 Oct 2020 13:45

This war is disturbing to me on all counts. Muzzies who are usually easy punching bags for kafirs -- like Azerbaijan was in its first war with Armenia. But here, because of the Turks, they are winning by using modern weapons against an Armenia using mainly Russian-based traditional arms.

By all counts, Armenia has the better organization, trained and more dedicated soldiers protecting a Christian nation in a region surrounded by Turkic muslims. But it seems technology was able to overcome that, at least initially. To the point that Armenia is going to Russia to seek ceasefires.

Not to dhoti-shiver. We too use a lot of Russkie weapons and are better trained than our enemies but the ones on the LAC build and sell more drones and drone types than anyone. The kind of war that the Amreekis unleashed on Iraq and Afganistan had changed the way these people fight. The Pakis will be influenced and Cheen has been selling this stuff across the Middle East for years.

https://www.ft.com/content/6acddc7d-cda5-44b2-9e5c-f6863f7bb9e7

Drones and missiles tilt war with Armenia in Azerbaijan’s favour

Henry Foy in Moscow YESTERDAY

When Armenia’s foreign minister flew to Moscow last week on a diplomatic tour in search of a ceasefire in the war against neighbouring Azerbaijan, enemy troops had advanced to just 65km from their prime target: a critical road that links his country with the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

By the time the ceasefire came into effect five days later, following talks in Washington, the picture was even more bleak: Azeri troops were just 30km from the winding mountain pass, and well within firing range.

That rapid progress by Azerbaijani forces is just one of many reasons why the ceasefire — the third attempt at an internationally-mediated truce since fighting broke out a month ago — collapsed after mere minutes in a salvo of artillery fire.

Backed by far superior military equipment and an airborne fleet of Israeli and Turkish drones that has inflicted major damage on Armenian tanks, air defences and heavy weapons, Azerbaijan’s army has made significant gains over the past fortnight, seizing back land surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh previously occupied by Armenian forces.

“The Armenians have been caught flat-footed,” said Jack Watling, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based defence think-tank. “One side is deploying modern weaponry and the other is using weaponry from the 1970s and 1980s.”

...

Can Kasapoglu, director of security and defence studies at Edam, an Istanbul-based think-tank, said the tactics used by Azerbaijan clearly echoed those used by the Turkish military in its campaign against Syrian government forces in Idlib last February and March. “Turkey has transferred not only weaponry but also concepts of operations,” he said.

Mr Hajiyev said Turkey had provided “extensive defence training” but denied that Ankara was playing a direct role in the conflict.

...


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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby brar_w » 29 Oct 2020 20:53

chola wrote:But here, because of the Turks, they are winning by using modern weapons against an Armenia using mainly Russian-based traditional arms.


What we see in this conflict is hardly surprising. Remember that back in the 1990 Gulf-War, there were Iraqi troops who were seen surrendering to RQ-2's hovering overhead so where we have come in the three decades that follow are hardly surprising. What is perhaps more alarming is the fact that the effects are being achieved with rudimentary (by modern standards) UAV and loitering munition technologies. So if a largely traditional air-defense architecture struggles against it, it isn't hard to extrapolate what would happen if it is confronted with a more challenging threat of UAV's, and other smart munitions and technologies. Before someone brings up the "decades old tech" in the air-defense systems it is worth noting that majority of the world, including the top western and eastern powers, have a ton of legacy equipment that has yet to go through a modernization cycle and may still be in service a decade out. I'm speaking of air-defense systems, armor, electronic warfare systems, tactical vehicles, and most importantly, command and control. For example, the US Army has a little over 140 AESA radars currently operational. The rest are all PESA. The same is likely true for most top powers. Command and control modernization is also quite slow except for parts which were modernized owning to an urgent operational need.

So the key take away, for me, is that flooding the battlefield with low-moderate tech LM's and affordable UAV's is a great leveler and can help impose very high costs on your opponent. It's not a be all end all but a great aid in helping plug capability gaps and exploiting enemy weaknesses. And you don't just need stealthy 6th generation flying wing UAV/UCAV's etc. Even lower tech stuff can get great results if cleverly employed (sort of explains why the Skyborg, and not an exotic X-45/47 like UCAV is getting the bulk of USAF invesmtent these days). Back in the cold war the strategy to impose a very heavy cost on an offensive force was to, borrowing a line from a former US-Army general, "get him to SEAD" and "get him to strike moving targets". These two things sucked up a disproportionate amount of resources and could bring any offensive plans to a halt (they still can though there has been vast improvement to perform these missions more efficiently). It seems that forcing the opponent to harden for C-UAS, LM's, and swarming munitions/missiles/UAVs is another way to impose a similar cost on your opponent. You can field the most formidable air-force in the region, but without having highly capable C-UAS solutions at the very tactical edge you aren't going to be able to ensure air-superiority below 2,000 ft against this threat. No amount of AWACS, or fast jets are going to solve for that. This air-superiority has to be maintained almost at the individual formation level right down to your light tactical vehicle formations and through to your armored units.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Dilbu » 29 Oct 2020 22:05

This is certainly a game changer. Will there be significant early bird benefits before everyone else catch up is the million dollar question.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby nam » 29 Oct 2020 22:15

There is no doubt that loitering ammo would cause tactical losses and makes for great physiological effect. But they won't win wars against a adversary with a formidable air power. Drones are now a cheaper form of airforce, for countries which cannot afford one.

We can consider loitering drones as every atgm hitting their targets with live feed. People would be quite impressed with every mbrl or 155mm round if it had a video feed.

Having a formidable firepower allows to push the threat back. You can hit drone teams, control stations, drone air bases etc. There will be tactical losses, but any adversary's offensive will be broken.

On self side, if you are able to bring in capability to fire off hundreds, if not thousands, of loitering drones towards an incoming armor division, you will break the offensive. A wolfpack of 100's of drones, would cause havoc on mechanized units. Probably the best way is to employ aripower to hunt down "drone carrying truck"

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby brar_w » 29 Oct 2020 22:38

Dilbu wrote:This is certainly a game changer. Will there be significant early bird benefits before everyone else catch up is the million dollar question.


Early bird benefits have already been realized by early adopters. RPA's have been used in a combat situation for decades. Loitering munitions too have been there for a while. What we are seeing now is a second and third wave of technology coming through into these systems.

nam wrote:There is no doubt that loitering ammo would cause tactical losses and makes for great physiological effect. But they won't win wars against a adversary with a formidable air power. Drones are now a cheaper form of airforce, for countries which cannot afford one.


Nothing will win a war for you by itself. Not a 5GFA and not a bomber force either. Similar to those military systems, drones, and LM's impose a cost on your opponent, plug gaps in your own ability and drones in particular enable things like persistent ISR which is impossible to get in any other way (without sacrificing too much other capability).

People would be quite impressed with every mbrl or 155mm round if it had a video feed.


I don't see a relation or why every drone out there, or every loitering munition out there would need to have FMV. Folks are moving away from that.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Dilbu » 29 Oct 2020 22:42

It becomes significant when we consider the nature of the wars being fought nowadays. The objective more often than not is to cause enough damage for a psychological victory and then retreat. For example this type of weapons will perfectly suit the Chinese if they want to retaliate against Indian actions in Ladhak, if the altitude permitted them to use it. A quick attack using loitering munitions against tanks and then declare ceasefire. Or it can be used to take out the defenses in a sector and then rush in to grab land. You cannot win a war but battles can be won and that is not insignificant.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby nam » 29 Oct 2020 23:47

I was referring to the physiological effect of having video feed of targets being attacked. Smerch rockets have being flying from both sides in hundreds with 10 times more warhead size, yet we hardly see the effect, that drones with camera present.

From an Indian perspective, the major concern is that we neither a dominating airpower, nor a drone power.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby darshhan » 30 Oct 2020 13:07

nam wrote:I was referring to the physiological effect of having video feed of targets being attacked. Smerch rockets have being flying from both sides in hundreds with 10 times more warhead size, yet we hardly see the effect, that drones with camera present.

From an Indian perspective, the major concern is that we neither a dominating airpower, nor a drone power.


But what about precision. Regular smerch rockets are not precision guided, whereas LM by default will be precision guided. I do not remember the details but there was a study which concluded that to obliterate a single target in ww2 you needed to release thousands of bombs. The same target would be taken out today with a single bomb. Sure shot obliteration based on precision. And this is what increases the fear factor.

Remember even at infantry levels it is the sniper who inspires much more fear than say a Machine gunner.

Canera feeds and video footage will affect civilians mainly. I doubt if hardened soldiers would let themselves get affected by some videos.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby chola » 30 Oct 2020 14:23

Even less respect for the Russkies. Selling to both sides and letting the f-ing Turks into the region without opposition.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/armenians-beg-putin-to-send-secret-soldiers-for-their-war-in-nagorno-karabakh

Armenia Fears Putin Isn’t Coming to Help in Nagorno-Karabakh
WAR AND PEACE
Anna Nemtsova
Updated Oct. 29, 2020 11:29AM ET
Published Oct. 29, 2020 5:14AM ET


MOSCOW—After several weeks of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the contested mountain region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenians have all but stopped hoping for any help from their ally Russia.

Under a mutual defense pact known as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)—the Russian equivalent to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization—Moscow has pledged to send troops to defend member states like Armenia if they are under attack. But Armenians aren’t holding their breath, even as the death toll mounts and Azerbaijan gains ground in the contested region thanks to their superior drone power.

“Every Armenian all across the world feels an existential threat to our nation,” an Armenian politician, Arthur Paronyan, told The Daily Beast. “But nobody expects the CSTO to help. It is a dead organization.”

Rather than sending troops, Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to broker a ceasefire in Moscow in early October. But the peace agreement quickly fell apart, and Putin acknowledged in a recent speech that the war in Nagorno-Karabakh has become more deadly than either side is admitting. Putin said the fighting has killed 5,000 people on both sides. “We have a conflict in its worst form,” he said.

If 5,000 people have indeed been killed in a month of fighting, the war would clearly be the most deadly now in the former Soviet Union, an area where Russia has presented itself as a protector of stability. This casualty figure is about a third of the deaths reported by the United Nations over six years of fighting in eastern Ukraine. This week, the countries kept fighting through another ceasefire, this one negotiated and announced by the Trump administration. Azerbaijan said Armenia had fired rockets at a civilian target, while Armenia’s defense ministry said rockets hit a city in Nagorno-Karabakh.

...

Russia’s position—it has sold weapons to both sides, even as it attempts to mediate the conflict—risks alienating not only Armenians close to home, but also members of the large Armenian diaspora, who are watching the conflict closely. “Together, we continue to pray during this difficult time for the many men, women and children who have been impacted by the war. We are one global Armenian nation,” Kim Kardashian, who is Armenian American, wrote in one of her recent social media posts.

...



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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby chola » 30 Oct 2020 14:41

Confession: My god, 5000 dead in a month of fighting. A war between two small states. Taken aback following this conflict. Feel for the Armenians surrounded as they are by Peacefuls.

Now I am glad that the LAC had stabilized. I can't imagine the carnage if we and the chinis tangle with far more firepower on either side.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Manish_P » 30 Oct 2020 15:05

darshhan wrote:
nam wrote:I was referring to the physiological effect of having video feed of targets being attacked...


...
Canera feeds and video footage will affect civilians mainly. I doubt if hardened soldiers would let themselves get affected by some videos.


Darshan ji, it is still a very important factor, especially in a democracy such as ours with the civilian politicos commanding the military. We have a gory history of the civilian overlords losing at the table what our military spilled their blood and guts to win. The current opposition bunch come across as a resident enemy of the nation every now and then.

Add to it a compromised and sold out MSM and a whole bunch of internal BIF termites, most of whom seem to be funded by outsiders, and the psychological impact cannot be underestimated or overstated. Another element is the social media, which is almost completely controlled from outside giving the government less ability to control and stop the viral propaganda warfare.


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