Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

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nam
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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby nam » 30 Oct 2020 15:09

darshhan wrote:But what about precision. Regular smerch rockets are not precision guided, whereas LM by default will be precision guided. I do not remember the details but there was a study which concluded that to obliterate a single target in ww2 you needed to release thousands of bombs. The same target would be taken out today with a single bomb. Sure shot obliteration based on precision. And this is what increases the fear factor.

Remember even at infantry levels it is the sniper who inspires much more fear than say a Machine gunner.

Canera feeds and video footage will affect civilians mainly. I doubt if hardened soldiers would let themselves get affected by some videos.


Smerch has lots more warhead types than just HE. The thing about precision weapon is exactly that. Precision. Reduces opportunity for the people at the receiving end to escape and creates a feeling of pointless fight. Armenian soldiers have been digging up holes and small bunkers near their position, where they try to jump in on the first hint of a drone or ATGM flying in. Puts in tremendous pressure to create a defensive shield, even for the forces in depth.

Imagine doing this constantly in a fluid battle situation.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby nam » 30 Oct 2020 15:12

chola wrote:Confession: My god, 5000 dead in a month of fighting. A war between two small states. Taken aback following this conflict. Feel for the Armenians surrounded as they are by Peacefuls.

Now I am glad that the LAC had stabilized. I can't imagine the carnage if we and the chinis tangle with far more firepower on either side.


PGM have created a very high casualty game. Specially on the tactical level. Hope someone on our side realize the need to augment firepower, than raising more strike corps.

When two sides with serious PGM capability go in for a fight, you are definitely looking at carnage.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby nam » 30 Oct 2020 15:26

My concern is that this video warfare is going hope to Pak & Chinis, that they can attempt a similar war on us. Defensive lines, mountains region, dug in positions. All attacked by loitering drones and UCAV. Land being captured, after the defensive lines fail. For Paks, it is the dream scenario.

Pretty sure Paks in particular are going to buy lot of Chini tactical drones. The heights are no more an obstacles. They would love to punch through our LoC line and capture few area and call for ceasefire. Even if they don't get it keep it, it will PR'ed as a victory, as in the case of Feb27.

Just for stats, Tiger hill was hit with 9000 artillery rounds on the day of attack. Now probably 20 odd loitering drones might do the job.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby chola » 30 Oct 2020 16:03

nam wrote:My concern is that this video warfare is going hope to Pak & Chinis, that they can attempt a similar war on us. Defensive lines, mountains region, dug in positions. All attacked by loitering drones and UCAV. Land being captured, after the defensive lines fail. For Paks, it is the dream scenario.

Pretty sure Paks in particular are going to buy lot of Chini tactical drones. The heights are no more an obstacles. They would love to punch through our LoC line and capture few area and call for ceasefire. Even if they don't get it keep it, it will PR'ed as a victory, as in the case of Feb27.

Just for stats, Tiger hill was hit with 9000 artillery rounds on the day of attack. Now probably 20 odd loitering drones might do the job.


Chinis were into this from day one. They've been the facilitators of this technology into the Middle East for years and are hawking even more. See chini mil thread.

This is what they prefer with their lil emperors army who even PRC official press say are far comfortable behind a computer playing with a joystick than on the battlefield. This type of warfare fits perfectly for them. In traditional fighting, their lack of combat experience and attitude would get their scrawny necks wrung.

But that is why Cheen is formidable. They know their own weaknesses and compete to their strengths unlike Pakis who stay true to their belief of "martial races" despite losing war after war. But the success of the Turks in introducing this kind of warfare in Armenia will surely influence the Pakis and they will have an endless variety of the stuff to choose from the chini MIC.

Still, I think the chinis will rather bank on out-infrastructuring us on the LAC than going kinetic. Their record shows it. They don't fight. They steal by flooding man-made machines and structures in places others can't match. That's less risky for them because like in the SCS they think they will outbuild anyone over time and simply create fait accompli on the ground. The Pakis though being what they are might be more tempted.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Cain Marko » 31 Oct 2020 11:54

Big question is - how effective are these loitering munitions if airspace is contested? I would think that harop types would be detectable to GBAD assets like Akash, AEW, and fighter radar?

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Cain Marko » 31 Oct 2020 12:02

brar_w wrote:The videos below describe what a swarm is a mil context. Early swarm experiments are focusing on combined situational awareness development, target prioritization, BDA and re-routing based on sensory inputs. Think of a bunch of munitions collaborating on attacking targets, and a bunch of them get shot down, the remaining can re-route , re-task and focus on the most important targets first (and be smart enough to determine what they are independently). S



The sort of very early collaborative work in practice (demo) -



This isn't science fiction. Early demonstrations and proof of concept work, with operational munitions (upgraded for this role) is already happening and this will shift into a completely new gear when new munitions, designed specifically for this role, begin showing up.


How likely is it for India to see this vs say, China in the next year or two. Are those being used by Turkey/Azeris anything remotely similar? My guess is that it normally takes a good 10-20 years post US induction for the world to really adopt the same.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby manjgu » 31 Oct 2020 12:31

if chinis were so super duper with drones they would have used them by now.. unfortunately war is not so antiseptic that u can sit in the comfort of a/c command bunkers and win wars with drones without suffering own casualties. drones though promising tech ( and should be adopted) will not prevent own casualties.. especially between almost equal forces. as a layman , i think the mountains, high altitudes negate many technologies ( as they exist today) ..PLA could be quite a force in the plains? maybe

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Cain Marko » 31 Oct 2020 12:45

manjgu wrote:if chinis were so super duper with drones they would have used them by now.. unfortunately war is not so antiseptic that u can sit in the comfort of a/c command bunkers and win wars with drones without suffering own casualties. drones though promising tech ( and should be adopted) will not prevent own casualties.. especially between almost equal forces. as a layman , i think the mountains, high altitudes negate many technologies ( as they exist today) ..PLA could be quite a force in the plains? maybe

That's my guess too...not in the plains either. With India now producing top notch radar systems across the board, layered ADS will not be easy to breach. Even the upgraded Schilkas have an AESA FCR iirc with capability to track/destroy 0.1sqm targets.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby tandav » 31 Oct 2020 12:49

The only way is to have offensive and counter offensive drone system. IA has to develop comprehensive drone vs drone fight capacity. Tanks, APCs, Trucks and exposed personnel are sitting ducks to swarm drone systems. Even if there is little damage the drone can shape the battle field and funnel any offensive into killing fields suitable to more conventional methods.

0) Laser based system: The only system capable of actually scaling and meeting the manouvering drone threat. From Rafael

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVNtz8gLhaY
https://petapixel.com/2020/02/14/watch- ... iles-away/

The other anti drone solutions mentioned below are all showcased against non maneuvering targets. It is well known that it is extremely difficult to bring down fast moving drones with conventional system like machine guns. Ballastic hard kill seems to be a no go.

1) A solution to drone swarms is a shotgun type system that saturates the air with small pellets that destroy the drone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlGdPrhRvBA

2) fire wide angle nets to entangle the drone in CQB mode.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sURKOPtI9ME

Other options: However nearly all solutions mentioned here would not really be practical against drone swarms

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X27-2WDIZR0

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Cain Marko » 31 Oct 2020 13:02

tandav wrote:The only way is to have offensive and counter offensive drone system. IA has to develop comprehensive drone vs drone fight capacity. Tanks, APCs, Trucks and exposed personnel are sitting ducks to swarm drone systems. Even if there is little damage the drone can shape the battle field and funnel any offensive into killing fields suitable to more conventional methods. The anti drone solutions mentioned below are all showcased against non maneuvering targets. It is well known that it is extremely difficult to bring down fast moving drones with conventional system like machine guns.

Like I said in another post, air burst AMMO like Oerlikon's AHEAD might be the way to go. Each projectile creates a cone shaped burst spiral of 100s or little tungsten balls that shred anything and everything. Mix in this kind of ammo with a high rate of fire anti air system, and drones will not find it easy. Especially if you can have a mixture of optical and aesa based targeting systems.

https://youtu.be/bdwjcayPuag

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby manjgu » 31 Oct 2020 14:17

Cain Marko wrote:
manjgu wrote:if chinis were so super duper with drones they would have used them by now.. unfortunately war is not so antiseptic that u can sit in the comfort of a/c command bunkers and win wars with drones without suffering own casualties. drones though promising tech ( and should be adopted) will not prevent own casualties.. especially between almost equal forces. as a layman , i think the mountains, high altitudes negate many technologies ( as they exist today) ..PLA could be quite a force in the plains? maybe

That's my guess too...not in the plains either. With India now producing top notch radar systems across the board, layered ADS will not be easy to breach. Even the upgraded Schilkas have an AESA FCR iirc with capability to track/destroy 0.1sqm targets.


i meant effective wrt massed artillery, rocket force, mobile forces etc. not necessarily a effective force in plains only due to drones.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby uddu » 31 Oct 2020 15:04

One solution will be to use swarm of miniature highly maneuverable drones against drones. Hit to kill. Later on improved variants of drones could be developed that can shoot multiple small nets to entangle and bring down attacking drones. This can help with reusable anti drone drones. Also these drones can be developed as multi role attacking and defending drones thus being helpful in offense and defense.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Prithwiraj » 31 Oct 2020 17:02

What about some kind of electro magnetic micro bust? A lot of insect repellents use these kind of technologies where they either create uhf burst or a mass suicide traps like uv light to draw them close in masses.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Manish_P » 31 Oct 2020 18:57

Read an interesting post (in a UK forum) by a retired Mil vet. He said that sometimes re-looking/re-purposing old stuff could help. Especially when desperate times called for desperate measures and/or there were cost/tech challenges.

He had suggested exploring usage of barrage baloons as a counter suicide-drone measure... by making the attacker's approach more difficult/reduced to coming in from vectors which could be defended. He clarified that he didn't mean the exact same type as those used in WW2 but perhaps a modernized variant - like remotely triggered airburst munitions stored on-board etc. He accepted that there would be challenges, but some of the challenges were known (ex - high winds at higher heights) but there could be tech/tactics to minimize those while still offering a relatively low-cost possible counter.

It was rather a fascinating discussion, with some members suggesting disruptive techs and some others (especially the older retired ex-mil guys) suggesting to have a relook at older systems and explore possibilities of re-purposing them. With the Drone threat expanding exponentially, i have a feeling that the UAV thread here will have some good discussions soon enough...

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby brar_w » 31 Oct 2020 19:42

Cain Marko wrote:Big question is - how effective are these loitering munitions if airspace is contested? I would think that harop types would be detectable to GBAD assets like Akash, AEW, and fighter radar?


The more "contested" an airspace the more attractive they become for a development and acquisition perspective. I mean just look at the various drone, expendable and attritable UAS, and swarming drone programs in the US. These aren't being done with the Taliban in mind, but are exclusively focused on the competition with China and Russia.

uddu wrote:One solution will be to use swarm of miniature highly maneuverable drones against drones.


Drones vs drones is already happening. One of the C-UAS systems fielded in Syria and Iraq/Afghanistan by the US Army leverages the Coyote drone to destroy other drones. But they have limitations. A small drone may not always be a loitering munition. It could be a backpack carried ISR platform that could still give usable ISR for artillery or other strike in the time you detect, track and kill it with a slower drone. So it can't be an all encompassing solution but one that can surely be layered in with other options like high energy laser, microwave etc. If you have good beamforming then nothing will match a HEL when it comes to destroying the target. The dwell times for a Group 1 or 2 UAS may only be single digit seconds for a 40 kW HEL, for example, which also factoring in its speed of light is going to be faster than any other option. So a strategy to have a HPM for massive quantities of these things, a HEL for and additional layer, and a kinetic option as a final, more all-weather option is the way to go. For more fixed installation you can even bring larger caliber guns for very short range targeting (but there drones can just stand off so you'd need a lot of them).

Layering in the right sensors is also important. You don't need huge radars but ones optimized for detecting, tracking, discriminating very large quantities of very small threats at short ranges. Bunched up DJI phantoms (as an example) is a very different sensor problem to solve then detecting stealth aircraft flying at 25,000 ft. It may be difficult to wrap one's head around it but its a solution that requires a dedicated sensor family and not just repurposed traditional sensors. And an EO and acoustic layer that is stitched for constant 360 SA, detection tracking and for guiding your lasers to optimal points on a UAS (like the wings, or a fuel tank etc).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VJ7ZMqO3xs

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Cain Marko » 01 Nov 2020 12:00

brar_w wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Big question is - how effective are these loitering munitions if airspace is contested? I would think that harop types would be detectable to GBAD assets like Akash, AEW, and fighter radar?


The more "contested" an airspace the more attractive they become for a development and acquisition perspective. I mean just look at the various drone, expendable and attritable UAS, and swarming drone programs in the US. These aren't being done with the Taliban in mind, but are exclusively focused on the competition with China and Russia.

I was thinking more in terms of what the Chinese or TSP could bring to bear vs India in the near future. Something like perhaps what Turkey can put forth. I'm not sure that will be very effective vs. IAF/IA assets. Beating down a lone Pantsir is one thing - but getting into a layered and networked ADS with robust ECCM capability? Forward formations though might not have as many defences - probably the Biho and Shilkas occasionally accompanied by Akash.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby nam » 01 Nov 2020 14:50

manjgu wrote:if chinis were so super duper with drones they would have used them by now.. unfortunately war is not so antiseptic that u can sit in the comfort of a/c command bunkers and win wars with drones without suffering own casualties. drones though promising tech ( and should be adopted) will not prevent own casualties.. especially between almost equal forces. as a layman , i think the mountains, high altitudes negate many technologies ( as they exist today) ..PLA could be quite a force in the plains? maybe


It is all about objectives. The objective may not be to win a large war, but to have tactical and PR gains. What did Pak gain by their action on Feb 27? Nothing in practical terms. But they had something to show. We didn't, even though we shot down a F16. We couldn't provide a clear dominating action. We have spend months arguing about our faults and complains about R77.

The Chinis (or Paks) can hit our positions at heights with hundreds of loitering drones. They could rapidly capture some of the heights. It gives a offensive advantage, which we can only negate by going in a full fledged war. It doesn't matter if Chinese win or not, later on.

It is about conventional escalation ladder. This game was played on Feb 26-27. Based on that, India is NOT interested in full fledged war. This gives our adversary a window of opportunity.

From the Chinese perspective, they are more worried about us formally getting allied with US and also blocking Chini imports, than lack of drone capability.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby nam » 01 Nov 2020 14:53

Our current IADS, be it Akash, Barak 8 or legacy system, is not geared to handle a scenario like say 300-400 "flying ATGM" coming towards our positions.

Akash or Barak8 cannot fire 400 rounds to bring them down, even if it is detected.

The concern is not the larger drones. It is the small, tactical ones.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Karan M » 01 Nov 2020 16:03

Even the US does not have an inventory of 400 flying ATGMs per target. Let's keep things realistic shall we.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby brar_w » 01 Nov 2020 19:15

nam wrote:Our current IADS, be it Akash, Barak 8 or legacy system, is not geared to handle a scenario like say 300-400 "flying ATGM" coming towards our positions.

Akash or Barak8 cannot fire 400 rounds to bring them down, even if it is detected.

The concern is not the larger drones. It is the small, tactical ones.


That is an unrealistic scenario for several reasons including the basic fact that no one can get close enough to a medium to long ranged SAM system and launch 300-400 ATGM's even if they had that many and a means to launch that many. These aren't obviously SEAD weapons whereas unmanned, expendable and attritable SEAD weapons exist and lots more are coming. But that is a different problem. The basic LM's do ok for SEAD in the Aermenia-Azeri situation because they are going up against a poorly equipped and likely poorly trained force. Some of them may work against short range systems. But most don't expect them to suffice in that situation, hence higher end systems specifically designed for SEAD/DEAD are being developed and/or fielded or already operational in some cases.

The sort of loitering munition that can tackle light - medium armor targets aren't necessarily SEAD weapons but more like one that can be employed against relocatable formations of armor, infantry, command and control, artillery etc and other stuff that is less protected, more mobile and not necessarily under a fortified fixed scenario. They are very much weapons that will be employed at the very tactical edge against suitable targets where sarming via loitering munitions is cost beneficial. IADS are expensive enough, and important enough to justify dedicating way more resources and more expensive systems to counter them.

For those at the tactical edge, here are some basic examples (just a few, though there are lots more between US, Chinese, Israeli, Turkish etc )

One of the drones used in this experiment (launched from the launcher) is the Coyote which can be configured with an appropriate sized warhead and sensor so that it can act as either an ISR drone, a loitering drone with a detonating warhead, or a guided Anti-Drone missile (there is even a jet powered version of it) which is the drone vs drone scenario described earlier -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qW77hVqux10

The Chinese too have their "mass" launchers and payloads -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUg5GZqttkA

These are two different threats, both very important and both where lots of development is happening, best looked separately in terms of work being done to expand SEAD/DEAD options beyond stand-off jamming and anti-radiation missiles / guided munitions AND work being done to defeat other tactical targets more efficiently and in ways which imposes significant costs when it comes to fortifying defenses at the very tactical edge and in mobile and rapidly deployable formations.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby nam » 01 Nov 2020 19:40

I was referring to tactical frontline targets, the ones which would generally be targeted with artillery/MBRL etc, not just SEAD. The Chinese truck mounted short range loitering drones, seems to be come in pack of 48. If required, they can use 10 of these trucks. Granted there is an element on how these drones are controlled, however I see them to be autonomous with image recognition capability in the future.

Loitering drones with warhead, with a range of even 20-30KM and 1 hour endurance, would significantly degrade defensive positions(or anything it attacks), which would generally be a "mass attack & hope" target using artillery.

Fundamentally these tactical drones will act as better artillery. Why fire 3000 155MM, when you could do it better with 300 loitering drones.
Last edited by nam on 01 Nov 2020 21:50, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby brar_w » 01 Nov 2020 19:52

Yes they will augment artillery and be used in innovative ways against these targets. It's just an additional layer of offensive capability that will be fielded in addition to RAM and other short-medium ranged fires with the advantage that these systems do their own (and for others) ISR. And they need not be against soft targets only. For example, on its Switchblade 600 offering, AeroVironment managed to incorporate the Javelin multi purpose warhead so there is going to be some inherent capability there to tackle armored targets as well. All in a electric/battery powered system with a 40-min endurance getting it between 40-90 km range which is pretty consistant with currently deployed tubed or rocket artillery range so these things can surely be mixed together in offensive formations. This is the future and just another layer of offensive capability on top of what is possible now. So C-RAM is now C-RAM&LM* I suppose both against high-volume / lower capability threats, and lower-volume/higher capability threats. The ISR value alone makes these investments worthwhile because long range artillery fires don't work if there is no high quality ISR so C-ISR is going to be the enemies main focus in denying long range artillery strike and a ton of dual-purpose/multi-role LM's make this task a lot harder to achieve. It also draws attention to a need to provide Counter LM or CRAM (at large) systems to tactical formations which is precisely the cost imposition that I was referencing earlier (cost not just in $$ but also in mobility, ability to maneuver etc).

* - This threat of a combination of RAM and LM's (that both target and both enable, by providing high quality ISR, RAM against relatively mobile or quickly re-deployable targets when they are not moving) is why the US Army is being forced to rush into service (first platoon to be fielded by 2022) a complementary 50kW Directed Energy mobile SHORAD system (HEL that is capable of firing on the move) in addition to its kinetic mobile SHORAD system. The SHORAD system tackles traditional mobile SHORAD threats while the DE-MSHORAD system tackles RAM and LM threats which can saturate kinetic magazines on any mobile kinetic intercept solution.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7088&start=1800#p2467394

You can see the TNOV X band interferometric sensor already integrated into the vehicle which is going to be vital for very precise/high accuracy tracking and targeting of very small rocket and mortar threats that can be guided by ISR provided by small drones or even LMs. It will be augmented by a 360 degree multi-mission radar (4 x S-Band GaN Arrays covering all four sides) and the EO/IR system which, together, will provide on the move C-UAS capability and Counter RAM capability when the formations are not moving as this is the time when cheap ISR can really make RAM effective against these deployed formations.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby nam » 01 Nov 2020 21:46

In terms of long range targeting, I take these drones will be deployed using Ballistic missiles.

DRDO has a missile launched PGM, where SANT like ATGM/PGM is deployed as BM warhead. I take this will be replaced with loitering drones, given the ISR and loitering capability that it provides.

For SEAD/DEAD, you triangulate the radar source and fire a BM based LD. If the SAM is not mobile (or didn't bother to move), irrespective of the distance, it will be hunted down.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby brar_w » 01 Nov 2020 21:50

nam wrote:In terms of long range targeting, I take these drones will be deployed using Ballistic missiles.

DRDO has a missile launched PGM, where SANT like ATGM/PGM is deployed as BM warhead. I take this will be replaced with loitering drones, given the ISR and loitering capability that it provides.

For SEAD/DEAD, you triangulate the radar source and fire a BM based LD. If the SAM is not mobile (or didn't bother to move), irrespective of the distance, it will be hunted down.



Sub-munitions are a known battlefield threat. LM's on the other hand extend that both tactically and from a defensive perspective. They can be deployed using a number of ways. Air launched, ground launched, or even UAV's launching smaller UAV's. You can palletize them by the dozens, make them cannister launched, and even launch them from very fast hypersonic carriers.

See this for an example -
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3 ... onic-speed

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Philip » 10 Nov 2020 14:43

New ceasefire,Armenia cedes territory,etc.in NK. Azerbaijan celebrates a " victory" of sorts even though the capital of NK is in Armenian hands. Russia which has close ties with both sides kept neutral and will send in a peace-keeping force. Turkey supported the Azeris hugely and Erdo will be preening himself. Putin will be hoping that the ceasefire holds and will reinforce his reputation as
a peacemaker as in Syria.
Last edited by Philip on 11 Nov 2020 03:54, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby nam » 10 Nov 2020 15:13

This conflict would have given lots of ideas to Pak & China. There will be thoughts in these countries, that a overwhelming drone driven offensive would allow for a quick war and victory, forcing us for a ceasefire deal. One of them might have a go at us.

Specially in Pak. This conflict is their dream ops. Get part of J&K and then force India to cede more territory. There will be lot of push to get tactical drones from China and attempt an offensive.

It doesn't matter if we have the capability to drive it back. It matters to know what our adversary is thinking. A heavy loitering drone driven offensive will cause initial losses..

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby John » 10 Nov 2020 19:40

The conflict show Russia/Putin waning influence even its own back yard multiple ceasefire attempts failed as Azerbaijan just ignored it and even muted response when it lost a chopper. It is also clear Turkey has reportedly even planned to use Syrian jihadis to shore up trouble in Russia’s provinces and Putin has been muted on that too afraid that S-400 deal will fall apart.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Vips » 10 Nov 2020 20:35

First Turkey shoots down a Russian warjet and openly threatens it against further escalation and now Azerbaijan treats Russia with contempt after shooting down its chopper. What next for Russia - Tuvalu giving it a few jhapads? :lol:

Imagine the dire straits Russia will be in when China openly starts encroaching and occupying its eastern territories and mineral rich Siberia. Russia's position right now is akin to worse then what was of Bahadur Shah Zafar during the British Rule - The emperor is naked behind the flashy gown. :rotfl:

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Rony » 11 Nov 2020 03:13

From Western mouthpiece Bloomberg

Putin brokers deal to end Karabakh war, brings Turkey into Russian Caucasus

Though he’s not a signatory to the deal, the agreement also represents a strategic triumph for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose vocal support of Azerbaijan in the fighting has allowed him to muscle into Russia’s Caucasus backyard. Aliyev said Turkish troops will join the Russian peacekeeping mission in a televised address to the nation early Tuesday.

The peace accord also gives Erdogan potential land access across southern Armenia to Azerbaijan and the resources-rich republics of central Asia for the first time, even as Turkey rejects diplomatic relations with its Armenian neighbor and keeps their joint border closed.

The pact effectively sidelines the US and France, enabling Putin and Erdogan to dominate talks on the terms of any future settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia, France and the US tried and failed for decades as international mediators to persuade the two sides to reach a peace agreement after Moscow brokered a 1994 truce to halt a war that killed 30,000 and displaced 1 million amid the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“We got what we wanted,” Aliyev said in his TV address, in which he mocked Pashinyan for accepting “capitulation” in the war. “We forced them” to peace, he said.

“For Putin it’s the best deal under the circumstances given our reluctance and inability to fight the war on Armenia’s side,” said Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat who’s now a foreign policy analyst in Moscow. “It keeps a functioning relationship with Erdogan while avoiding a major fight.”


The deal came after Azerbaijani forces took control of the city of Shusha, which is called Shushi by Armenians, on Sunday, putting them on the outskirts of Stepanakert. The government there, backed by Armenia, had warned that the loss of Shushi would lead to the fall of the entire region.

Rony
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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Rony » 11 Nov 2020 04:12

Contrary piece saying that Turks actually lost at the negotiation table. So Turks wont be part of the peacekeeping force.

Russia leaves little room for Turkey in Azeri-Armenian truce

Turkish military support, along with Israeli arms assistance, was instrumental in tipping the scale in favor of Azerbaijan on the battlefield. Yet Turkish diplomacy seems to have little say on the negotiating table now. By helping Azerbaijan, Ankara pushed Yerevan firmly into Russia’s arms. In other words, it effectively subcontracted the job of undermining the West-friendly Pashinyan, whom Moscow has viewed with suspicion since he came to power after a “velvet revolution” in 2018.

Moreover, the planned corridor from Nakhchivan, which shares a tiny border with Turkey, to the Azeri mainland will be under Russian control as well, dampening Ankara’s hopes of using the route as a gateway to boost its influence in Azerbaijan and Central Asia.

nam
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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby nam » 11 Nov 2020 18:54

https://eurasiantimes.com/karabakh-today-kashmir-tomorrow-is-kashmirs-liberation-next-on-cards-for-turkish-president-erdogan/

It didn't take a day from my post for this to come up! :rotfl:

It is good, Paks chase this wet dream. Will keep us on the toes..

Philip
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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Philip » 12 Nov 2020 04:17

Oh great! It would be a splendid opportunity to crashland the bombastic Ottoman In-sultan and teach the two "bithers-in-arms" a signal lesson. I still can't fathom why despite his anti- Indian angst we haven't cancelled the deal for 2 auxiliary support vessels for the IN and awarded it either to a foreign OEM.We earlier had Italy building them for us and have just signed on multiple agreemeents with the Italians,and can build them locally.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Y. Kanan » 12 Nov 2020 09:59

You can be sure the Pakis and the Chinese are watching - especially the Chinese. The PLA's weakness is the quality of its soldiers, but they can manufacture like anything. They can and will pump out vast fleets of drones and use them on us. Will we be caught flat footed just as the Armenians have been? India always gets caught off guard when it comes to military procurement; we're always (just barely) equipped for the last war, not the current one.

I see no sign that the Indian armed forces have gotten into drones in a big way. This technology is still very much an afterthought for Indian military planners, obsessed as they are with tanks, fighter jets, aircraft carriers, etc.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby John » 12 Nov 2020 11:08

Rony wrote:Contrary piece saying that Turks actually lost at the negotiation table. So Turks wont be part of the peacekeeping force.

I would wait for dust to settle to see what shakes out but one thing is clear Putin/Russia came out clearly weakened unable to help Armenia or stop Turkish intervention or even react to Azerbaijan bringing in jihadis and shooting down their helo.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby V_Raman » 12 Nov 2020 12:17

I might sound like a broken record - we better get going together on indigenous drones - we wont be able to afford importing them in quantities required and things are moving fast. Armed Forces may not be there - but DRDO should get moving on the UAV front.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby ParGha » 12 Nov 2020 18:43

How it played out per Washington Post:

In a matter of months, however, Nagorno-Karabakh has become perhaps the most powerful example of how small and relatively inexpensive attack drones can change the dimensions of conflicts once dominated by ground battles and traditional air power.

It also highlighted the vulnerabilities of even sophisticated weapons systems, tanks, radars and surface-to-air missiles without specific drone defenses. And it has raised debate on whether the era of the traditional tank could be coming to an end.
...
In the early stages of the war, Azerbaijan used 11 slow Soviet-era An-2 aircraft that had been converted into drones and sent them buzzing over Nagorno-Karabakh as bait to Armenian air defense systems — tempting them to fire and reveal their positions, after which they could be hit by drones.

Azerbaijan used surveillance drones to spot targets and sent armed drones or kamikaze drones to destroy them, analysts said.
...
Their tally, which logs confirmed losses with photographs or videos, listed Armenian losses at 185 T-72 tanks; 90 armored fighting vehicles; 182 artillery pieces; 73 multiple rocket launchers; 26 surface-to-air missile systems, including a Tor system and five S-300s; 14 radars or jammers; one SU-25 war plane; four drones and 451 military vehicles.

Azerbaijan, the group concluded, had visually confirmed losses of 22 tanks, 41 armored forced vehicles, one helicopter, 25 drones and 24 vehicles. The full tally of losses on both sides cannot be independently verified, however Armenian losses appear significantly higher, according to military analysts.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Haridas » 13 Nov 2020 08:27

Prithwiraj wrote:What about some kind of electro magnetic micro bust? A lot of insect repellents use these kind of technologies where they either create uhf burst or a mass suicide traps like uv light to draw them close in masses.

Insects can't absorb and wavelength that is say more than 2 times their size. So uhf, s,x band has no effect.

Similarly UAV require freq that greater L band or more, higher the better, however stealthy shape is a curved ball. Stealth shaping is easy for winged UAV, and rf absorbing surface construction is easier for higher freq K band.

So one needs a system approach, not a single silver bullet singleton.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Atmavik » 15 Nov 2020 00:26

celebrations in Baku. you will see quite a few Paki flags. as they say in Hyd. "beganee shadi me Abdula diwanaa". (loose translation - adbula going mad in unknown wedding"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhUQk_PQfME

Aditya_V
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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Aditya_V » 16 Nov 2020 11:24

I Bet this ceasefire will not hold for long, Azerbhaijan with Turkey and Pakis have tasted blood, they will go for the kill, Amermians if they are smart will not prepare to fight a proper war with a treaty when not if when the next Azeri offensive starts.

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Re: Armenia Azerbaijan Conflict - 2020

Postby Dilbu » 16 Nov 2020 14:14

There is a strong possibility of non-state actors continuing the fight inside Armenia keeping the fire of separatism in wider areas on slow boil. This is after all the only area of expertise pakis can offer.


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