Kakkaji wrote:If a prototype of Mk1A is not even flying yet, I don't see how they will deliver a production unit in 2023.
Won't the Mk1A have to go through flight trials, and IOC/ FOC, before it is approved for production?
I could be way off the mark here, but I don't see the Mk1A going through the entire gamut of trials like the Mk1 did. But IR or someone else will have to confirm. My limited understanding tells me that only components will have to get tested and validated - on a Tejas platform - which to me is basically the radar. There are some structural differences with the Mk1, but I don't believe it requires revalidation. So when HAL states that the first batch of Mk1As will arrive in three years of contract signature (which has already occurred), that is entirely plausible.
Below is from page 1 of this thread....
Year-Over-Year Tejas Production
• 2015-16
: One
• 2016
: Two
• 2017
: Three
• 2018
: Six
• 2019
: Four
• 2020
: Two
• 2021
: Four to Date
See how the production numbers improved from 2015 to 2018? Caveat - These numbers all reflect the first flight dates. That is how it has been calculated. But taking a look at these numbers at face value....what took HAL one entire year to produce two aircraft in 2016...now that same HAL made six aircraft in 2018. So the production numbers have obviously increased. The increase in numbers clearly reflect the learning curve.
But one can argue...that the numbers dipped in 2019, when it should have increased in 2019. So why did that happen? Well the four aircraft in 2019, represented the last four of sixteen IOC variants. The next batch of 16 aircraft (for the second squadron) are all FOC aircraft. So I am assuming there were some planning or discussions held for the FOC variants which perhaps caused some delay. Again, IR can confirm.
Then in 2020, COVID hit and HAL barely churned out two FOC aircraft, but in the first half of 2021...four FOC aircraft have flown. And when I say COVID hit, does not necessarily mean that every one in HAL caught COVID, were bed ridden and waiting for oxygen cylinders. But the lockdown in 2020 caused a ripple effect not just at HAL, but also at suppliers at the Tier 2 and Tier 3 stage. As an integrator, how do you assemble a plane when your parts are not there?
IR put it best --->
"HAL cannot work as SpaceX, LM, Boeing even if it wanted to." Now these numbers may not make us jingos happy. But HAL does not function or operate on satisfying us jingos on BRF. That is not their metric. They have an order for 83 Mk1As and how they do it, is up to them. They have to deliver.
The choice in 2020 was either have no lockdown and let a large percentage of the population die or impose a lockdown. If you were the PM, what would you do? Not directed at you Kakkaji....but easy to make decisions in hindsight, because talk is cheap. But it is next to impossible to plan for every possible eventuality. Nothing or nobody functions that way.
Tomorrow a giant octopus or zombies crawling from under the ground could destroy the Tejas production lines. What do you do? So while, these out-of-the-world theories may seem foolish....then consider this ----> if you told me in 2018, that in the year 2020...a virus was going to cause a massive global pandemic and a few million people in India will die as a result of this virus. That the Indian (and global) economy would come to a crashing halt. That there would be a nation wide lockdown. That everyone would wear a mask when out in public. That more than 100+ HAL employees will die. If you told me all this in 2018, I would have a good laugh. But now we know - in 2021 - that is exactly how it played out.
Let them iron out and address the issues, that is more important than hitting the numbers. If you want to see the Tejas fleet be a sizeable number, then let HAL do its job. The production is picking up with the FOC variants, but it will take time. Let us see how HAL does with the 83 Mk1A order. That is where we can measure their production performance. Right now, all we are doing is going back and forth on BRF, with no concrete solution.