Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

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Mort Walker
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Mort Walker »

We all learn from failures and space launches are hard, and it takes time and money. The failure of the upper stage means this is at least a 12 month setback for GSLV launches. More realistically an 18 month setback.

Can’t rule out sabotage during assembly by Americans, Chinese and Russians.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by arvin »

ramana wrote:A few things to remember:
Accidents happen
And major accidents happen rarely.
Heinrich triangle says for 100 incidents, 85 are glitches, 13 are minor accidents and 2 will be major accidents. So keep that perspective.
As for recovering the satellite, not its altitude, and use your physics to calculate the G force with which it hits the ground/sea level.
The altitude per that ISRO screenshot on Twitter was 139.74 km. ie. 139740 m.
Assume the vertical velocity component is zero for ease of calculations. The CUS was horizontal to earth anyway by then.
USe g= 9.81m/sec^2.
Do the math.
Amber G if they falter, guide them. Don't give the answer yet.
Hmmm...Your physics and they falter.
By the same yardstick the person who you named to guide gets his\ her post regularly poofed by mods.
Anyway thanks for the hint, will work on it.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by disha »

Note that the sat did not make it to GTO and is not in a useable or stable orbit for it to be repurposed effectively.

It can maybe used as a science experiment briefly and its capability tested. I am sure that ISRO satellite group will be on it to see how the payloads are working. They may reveal or chose to not reveal.

EOS will re-enter Earth atmosphere and burn up. One can monitor its orbit, check when and where it will enter Earth's atmosphere and burn up.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by disha »

arvin wrote:
Hmmm...Your physics and they falter.
By the same yardstick the person who you named to guide gets his\ her post regularly poofed by mods.
Anyway thanks for the hint, will work on it.
arvin'ji, one does have to acknowledge that some members are very good at maths and physics. If their talent is available to increase our understanding of the physics of rockets, why not?
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by ramana »

Various descriptions of the pyro chain which was used in many vehicles and locations on those vehicles as comprising:
A pyro chain consists of an igniter, 2 safe/arm units, and Energy Transfer Assemblies.
The above is being described in reverse:
There should be a command unit that sends signals to the 2 Safe/Arm units which connect to the ETAs to the igniter.
So any of these could have malfunctioned.

The command unit is Ok as telemetry shows it sent the CUS IGN command. And is not Cause.
This goes by cables to the 2 safe/arm units which probably are relays- one to safe the pyrochain for safety and the other to arm the pyrochain to transfer the signal to the igniter via ETAs.

We don't know if the Safe/Arm units are in parallel or in serial. There lies an unknown at this time.
If the relay for safing malfunctions, the arm signal does not go through.
And if the arming relay malfunctions the signal to the igniter does not go through.
So the relays and the cables could be likely causes.
However, the cables are the same as those used for 6 flights. So not likely cause.
Relays could be likely cause as mechanical relays can have spring problems, armature problems, contacts sticking.

The ETAs could have an anomaly due to - excess bend radius, not being torqued properly to the igniter.
Excess bend radius could be ruled out as this is the 6th flight and they have procedures.
The ETA fitting to igniter torque is a likely cause.

From these superficial facts, the causes narrow down to relays or installation procedures.

We need more data to get deeper.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by arvin »

Happy to learn Disha ji. I am nowhere close to said members in terms of depth of knowledge. My only objection was why bring in JEE kammandu giri to make simple points.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by fanne »

could the camera at 139 Km instead of 36,000 KM give some awesome earth pic with mind boggling resolution so that it can be used for some other purposes? Can the Camera be refocused. Even if it is alive for 100 days before burning up in earth's atmosphere, and make x rounds around the earth, we may have usable high res earth atlas.

My understanding is that EOS-1 had significant foreign contribution (beyond our current ability) and that's why other powers had so much say in its well being (and perhaps yet for other powers to sabotage it).
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by ramana »

You need to do back of envelope calculations to make points.
When an object falls from 139740 m to earth with just acceleration to earth it will hit with a high velocity that will break it.
So cant reuse it.
Not intending to demean you.

fanne, its not in orbit at 139km. That's, not orbital height.

LEO is 200 nm or 200*1.61= 320km.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by ramana »

Just for fun please download this book from ISRO giants:
https://cpentalk.com/drive/index.php?do ... om+%29.pdf
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by khatvaanga »

ramana wrote:A few things to remember:
Accidents happen
And major accidents happen rarely.
Heinrich triangle says for 100 incidents, 85 are glitches, 13 are minor accidents and 2 will be major accidents. So keep that perspective.
As for recovering the satellite, not its altitude, and use your physics to calculate the G force with which it hits the ground/sea level.
The altitude per that ISRO screenshot on Twitter was 139.74 km. ie. 139740 m.
Assume the vertical velocity component is zero for ease of calculations. The CUS was horizontal to earth anyway by then.
USe g= 9.81m/sec^2.
Do the math.
Amber G if they falter, guide them. Don't give the answer yet.
if my calc is correct then it comes to ~6000 kmph.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Haridas »

yensoy wrote:
Prem Kumar wrote:"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time its enemy action"
GISAT-1 has seen an unusual number of setbacks. There were even murmurs that we delayed its launch due to Amreeki pressure once. The possibility of sabotage needs to be looked into.
That could be so. But it is equally likely that a sophisticated satellite like a hyperspectral sensor is heftier, has additional power requirements and must be placed in a more challenging orbit, all of which complicate the launch process over and beyond the GSLV's typical bread-and-butter envelope of success.
This argument has no bearing on Cryoengine stage failure. Stages are merely impulse devices, one does not risk change their operating parameter to get few extra newtons.
The CUS had been uprated to provide initial overdrive thrust (at somewhat lower ISP) till stage's kinetic energy equals energy of orbit at 120 km (I.e. reach the point where there is no vertical axis force component needed; i.e. no ISP loss due to gravity). Thereafter the CUS thrust is eased to economize the ISP. This possibility was identified by ISRO engineers upon their study of CUS (that would help increase GSLV GTO payload capability by about 100 Kg) . The Russian CUS was contracted to provide the additional thrust, but they never delivered.

India paid for the defunct Soviet Union space industry to survive. Instead of buying Russian space industry India foolishly paid good money to keep Russian industry alive (the same happened with Mig industry with the $800 M purchase of naval Mig29K). It is hard to believe that the first Russian Cryogenic stage (in Russian history) was the engine they sold to ISRO and rode on GSLV.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Haridas »

disha wrote:Note that the sat did not make it to GTO and is not in a useable or stable orbit for it to be repurposed effectively.

It can maybe used as a science experiment briefly and its capability tested. I am sure that ISRO satellite group will be on it to see how the payloads are working. They may reveal or chose to not reveal.

EOS will re-enter Earth atmosphere and burn up. One can monitor its orbit, check when and where it will enter Earth's atmosphere and burn up.
Looking at the last grainy screen data, the upper stage w/sat fell down. There is no way for it to have enough velocity to even maintain a very low earth orbit of say 120 km. The reentry into atmosphere will disintegrate the satellite.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Haridas »

https://youtu.be/pLtPmYJ6HDA?t=201
Watch this report.
The CUS worked for 1 minute out of teh 13 minutes planned duration.

I know from ROCKSIM that 1 minute thrust cant give enough velocity to maintain low earth orbit. Hence the craft certainly crashed back into atmosphere.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Najunamar »

Haridasji, does this not mean ignition occurred and continued as expected for nearly 44s before this 'anomalous behavior' was observed? would eliminate ignition as the root cause?
From that link 04:56 to 05:40 functioned normally as we also saw the path tracking to expected...
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Haridas »

Najunamar wrote:Haridasji, does this not mean ignition occurred and continued as expected for nearly 44s before this 'anomalous behavior' was observed? would eliminate ignition as the root cause?
From that link 04:56 to 05:40 functioned normally as we also saw the path tracking to expected...
Yes.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

ramana wrote: ...
As for recovering the satellite, not its altitude, and use your physics to calculate the G force with which it hits the ground/sea level.
The altitude per that ISRO screenshot on Twitter was 139.74 km. ie. 139740 m.
Assume the vertical velocity component is zero for ease of calculations. The CUS was horizontal to earth anyway by then.
USe g= 9.81m/sec^2.
Do the math.
Amber G if they falter, guide them. Don't give the answer yet.
Ramanaji -
:) As you and most people here know, using g=9.81 m/sec^2 is of little practical use.. value of 9.81 is a sea level and this value it self changes as you go higher up. Practically one can use this type of formula if height is few hundred meters or so but it loses it's practical value for higher altitudes. A few times I have posted a simple formula for orbital calculations (see note 1)

At this altitude ( few hundred km) simple math - if velocity is > 8km/sec (at 140 km it is is about 7.8 Km/sec) the satellite will orbit (or go in a higher orbit). Otherwise, the orbit will decay/spiral down in the atmosphere below.

At what velocity "it" will hit earth - most likely it will burn up. Depending on size, density etc some fragments may hit the earth's surface but terminal velocity will be reached for most small fragments.

****
Note 1: For those who want to calculate - this simple formula may get you *all* you need for rough calculation.


v^2 = (4*10^14) (2/r - 1/a) for earth.


This is a very practical formula - If you know velocity at any one point you know the orbit)

All units are SI ( meters and seconds etc)
v = velocity (in m/s)
r = distance in meters from center of earth ( so have to add altitude + radius)
a = *average* of the orbit
4*10^14 value is for earth (it is GM for earth.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by SriKumar »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMAQdfjWXvM&t=3s

1. The failure happened around 140 km. where the Cryo Upper stage (CUS) malfunctioned. At this point the satellite was still attached to the cryogenic engine and not separated. So it was probably not even activated. At 140 km its velocity was around 4.78 km/sec vs an orbital velocity required for this altitude needed is 7.8 km/sec. No question of the satellite orbiting.

2. In above video, at time 36:18 39:19 there are plots of the GSLV velocity and altitude vs. expected trajectory plotted versus time. "Cryo stage ignition commenced" was called out at 38:37 by the ISRO guy (one can just hear this over the useless commentary from DD commentators). So, one could say that the CUS was 'functional' to some degree for about 45 seconds.

3. However, if you see the plot (i.e. freeze the video) at 39:19, departure from expected trajectory (for altitude) begins about 20 seconds after the CUS ignited (see the time on the x-axis). So, this is where the anomaly began, i.e. about 20s after CUS started.

4. In the same plot, one can see that the velocity is maintained constant or even rises a little after CUS ignition. This suggests that the CUS delivered power. The fact that it departed from the expected velocity could be either due to (i) the CUS working fine but the attitude of the CUS went awry, or (ii) the CUS started losing power while maintaining the right attitude. Since attitude info. is not known, it is difficult to say what happened. The relative velocity actually increased a bit during this time (which might indicate a 'fall' i.e. nose pointing below the expected inclination- but this is 110% speculation)'.

Added later: I posted this as AmberG made above post. Hence not deleting the orbital velocity comment.
PPS: The DD commentator merrily continued to provide facts and figures for almost a minute after the plot was shown indicating a departure from the expected trajectory (until she was cut off mid-sentence).
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

SriKumar wrote:

1. The failure happened around 140 km. where the Cryo Upper stage (CUS) malfunctioned. At this point the satellite was still attached to the cryogenic engine and not separated. So it was probably not even activated. At 140 km its velocity was around 4.78 km/sec vs an orbital velocity required for this altitude needed is 7.8 km/sec. No question of the satellite orbiting.

.
Thanks SriKumarji for the nice post -
Just to take the above data and use my formula posted above (v^2 = 4*10^14 (2/r - 1/a)

We have r = 6371+140 = 6511 km get to get to transfer point of 42,000 Km, we need a = 24267 Km, substituting these values we needed V = 10.31 km/sec == for a successful transfer orbit .
To achieve circular orbit we needed r=a=6511000m which needed v = 7.84 km/sec. for circular orbit

We had 4.78 km/sec..
If we calculate we get a = around 4000 km -- and the radius of earth is around 6370 Km .. the orbit will be inside - or it will hit earth's surface.

I wanted to put this formula because it simplifies lot of important aspect. Hope this helps.
Last edited by Amber G. on 13 Aug 2021 09:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

@Ramanaji - If earth had no atmosphere - than my formula (just posted above) will give v = 5.12 km/hour when it hits the earth.. (Of course, most likely it will burn down in atmosphere before it hits earth) :). (The formula works for all heights instead of v^2=2gh type formulas which are for small heights only :))
khatvaanga wrote: if my calc is correct then it comes to ~6000 kmph.
If we assume that there is no air resistance, the value from my calculation comes out to be around 5 km/sec or 18000 kmph which is same order of magnitude as yours... The trouble with using simple falling body type approach is that 1) g is not constant, 2) Earth is not flat but a sphere .. so when it hits earth, it hits at angle and may be you are just calculating the vertical component --and since "vertical" direction is not fixed - the calculation becomes more complicated.)
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by SriKumar »

Amber G. wrote: Thanks SriKumarji for the nice post -
Just to take the above data and use my formula posted above (v^2 = 4*10^14 (2/r - 1/a)

We have r = 6371+140 = 6511 km get to get to transfer point of 42,000 Km, we need a = 24267 Km, substituting these values we needed V = 10.31 km/sec == for a successful transfer orbit .
To achieve circular orbit we needed r=a=6511000m which needed v = 7.84 km/sec. for circular orbit

We had 4.78 km/sec..
If we calculate we get a = around 4000 km -- and the radius of earth is around 6370 Km .. the orbit will be inside - or it will hit earth's surface.

I wanted to put this formula because it simplifies lot of important aspect. Hope this helps.
Please no ji for me. My physics knowledge is still at a 10th grade level (as you can tell) :D . I had not thought about the transfer orbit, I simply went for a circular orbit at 140 km and did a force balance of GMm/R^2 = m*V^2/R (9th grade physics) to get 7.8 km/s. Interesting perspective there at 4.78 km/sec it would still orbit, except that the earth would be too large for it. :-o
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by RajaRudra »

May be its time, we have to check our Anti SAt Missile. I could understand from the discussion current height is too low. Event If not for the kill testing, we can again test the ASAT for the procedures, time to launch from command and testing the vehicle itself against a live target.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by csaurabh »

I see a lot of people talking about orbital mechanics, pyrogen igniter and so on but no discussion on the real source of the trouble which is the human factor. An organization is not made of buildings and rocket manufacturing facilities. It is made up of people. If we don't understand the people, we don't understand the organization.

Got a lot of flak when I brought it up last time but this is not about people who we think or imagine working there, it is about people who actually work there. You and I may regard ISRO as of great national importance, but for a lot of people it is just a regular government job, with all the inefficiency and backbiting that goes along with it. Of course the real problem is more complicated than just that , I will try to give some hints.

See the thing is that there are actually two types of ISRO scientists- the ones recruited before 1984 and the ones recruited after 1995. The gap of 11 years represents the period when it was assumed that ISRO would be a failed organization and shut down (hence no point recruiting). Also the recruitments before 1984 were done on a rather ad-hoc and local basis, not through all-India exams so quality is somewhat questionable. The gap between the thinking process of the pre 1984 (old timers) and post 1995 is quite huge, I have witnessed it personally. The old timers are steeped in Soviet era/ License raj ways of thinking - they want no truck with private sector or startups, are against indigenization/atma nirbharta and do not like any new technologies (they don't know what SpaceX or NASA are doing ). All they want is to maintain the processes established in the 1980s and 1990s.

The problem is that what the government wants are exactly opposite to what the old timers want and the old timers are now essentially in charge of ISRO (because of seniority based promotion in govt orgs ). But the new timers (post 1995s ) are much more in sync with what the govt wants. They are tech savvy and nationalistic. So what we are witnessing here is a transition era where the old timers are slowly being retired and replaced by new timers. And this is a period of civil war between those who are technically in charge and those who are actually working on the ground.

The internal civil war is essentially the source of all the problems in ISRO. What we see externally are just signs of it. The only solution will come post 2024 when the old timer morons will be compulsorily retired, until then you can expect same type of continuing problems. I would also add that COVID-19 has played havoc and contributed a lot to the current problems. However to say that things were running smoothly prior to covid is simply wrong.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

^^^ this is a load of tripe if ever there was one. The pre 84 crowd were the ones who took the PSLV to success. They were there when the GSLV was first launched.

Pre 84 ISRO crowd has worked with Indian Pvt sector companies all their working lives. Else Godrej boyes and others would not be working with ISRO.

Please try to understand the history and budget of the organisation before posting what you have.

For a rocket to fail. Just one component has to fail. For a success thousands have to work.

The solution is to do a thorough RCA. Identify the components responsible and test them to failure again.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Mort Walker »

What is the mandatory retirement age of ISRO workers? Is it different from standard central government service for those who are in senior scientist positions?
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

SriKumar wrote: Please no ji for me. My physics knowledge is still at a 10th grade level (as you can tell) :D . I had not thought about the transfer orbit, I simply went for a circular orbit at 140 km and did a force balance of GMm/R^2 = m*V^2/R (9th grade physics) to get 7.8 km/s.
The formula, you used, of course, is quite correct and very useful. Rewriting it:

v^2 = GM/r for circular orbit. (Value of GM for earth happens to be ≈ 4*10^14, a nice figure I always remembered)

The general formula for elliptical orbit - very useful, and quite simple - which I posted above is just a slight modification:

v^2 = GM (2/r - 1/a) ≈ 4*10^14 (2/r-1/a) (for earth)
(where a is average of perigee and apogee)
(with this, one can calculate velocity at *any point* at a distance r - and vice-ver-sa)

@ramanaji and others - this is one of the easiest method to calculate the velocity at any point - quite accurate if one neglects air resistance.
Interesting perspective there at 4.78 km/sec it would still orbit, except that the earth would be too large for it. :-o
YES! I always like to say that when one throws a ball (or path of a missile) the trajectory is an ellipse - not a parabola -- of course air resistance affect it and earth's surface too..!

So if this 4.78 km/sec object, continued the orbit , the orbit will be an ellipse, coming in contact with earth's surface at around 5.2 km/sec and zipping pass the other side (about 1500 km from center of earth) at 21 km/sec and return back to the original point again with the 4.78 km/sec speed -- that is if the earth's atmosphere and rocks did not effect the orbit :) :)..
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by titash »

Pratyush wrote:^^^ this is a load of tripe if ever there was one. The pre 84 crowd were the ones who took the PSLV to success. They were there when the GSLV was first launched.

Pre 84 ISRO crowd has worked with Indian Pvt sector companies all their working lives. Else Godrej boyes and others would not be working with ISRO.

Please try to understand the history and budget of the organisation before posting what you have.

For a rocket to fail. Just one component has to fail. For a success thousands have to work.

The solution is to do a thorough RCA. Identify the components responsible and test them to failure again.
Pratyush-ji ++

If differential mindset(s) was all it took to crater a launch, you'd have a 50% launch failure rate at the bare minimum.

There is nothing wrong in having a pro-soviet/pro-commie mindset as long as you are working dedicatedly to further Indian interests. Even if you're looking at ISRO as just a job (and with a wife & kids, trust me...it happens in your late 30s and 40s to anyone and everyone, even in the US) as long as you show up and do due diligence you can still put rockets in space

What needs to happen is a hard look at the Failure Mode & Effects analysis (FMEA) and do a deep dive Root Cause Corrective Action (RCCA). This is engineering plain and simple...a human or component or sub-system has failed or underperformed, or a multi-variable interaction has happened, or a catastrophic event outside of the design parameters has happened. It will cost $$ to find and fix, but with IoT/Telemetry hopefully it will be nailed down quickly
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Mort Walker »

The fact is we can only speculate here. AFAIK, only csaurabh has currently worked/contracted with ISRO, so getting input from him is useful.

The loss of EOS-03 is of several hundred million dollars, and worse the time setback. Given that COVID is taking up so much financial resources, along with anemic growth rates, GoI is not going to adequately fund space and defense as needed for a country the size of India. It's just a budget reality. All GSLV launches are going to be pushed back by 2 years given this pandemic and failure. Failure of CY-2 aren't a big deal because that was high risk to begin with, but this is of the launch vehicle, which is really really bad.


Expect significant delays for:
1. GSLV-III GAGANYAAN first demo flight
2. GSLV-II IRNSS-1J Navigation satellite
3. GSLV-III GSAT-20 Comms satellite
4. GSLV-II NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR)
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by disha »

Haridas wrote:https://youtu.be/pLtPmYJ6HDA?t=201
Watch this report.
The CUS worked for 1 minute out of teh 13 minutes planned duration.

I know from ROCKSIM that 1 minute thrust cant give enough velocity to maintain low earth orbit. Hence the craft certainly crashed back into atmosphere.
Thanks Haridas'ji and I was not paying attention (it was also mentioned by Ramana'ji). Srikumar in later post also clarified about the steps.

Well one can say that the sat did go higher and faster than Bezos stick :-) [Remaining discussion can be carried in the international space]
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by disha »

csaurabh wrote:The internal civil war is essentially the source of all the problems in ISRO. What we see externally are just signs of it. The only solution will come post 2024 when the old timer morons will be compulsorily retired, until then you can expect same type of continuing problems. I would also add that COVID-19 has played havoc and contributed a lot to the current problems. However to say that things were running smoothly prior to covid is simply wrong.
CSaurabh'ji, all organizations have to go through that evolution. All I see is that it is evolving and I think this setbacks will make it to evolve positively.

I do remember Dr. K. Radhakrishnan not keen on the current CUS of the naughty boy mk2 and since it has testing complications he wanted to not put money behind the current staged combustion and wanted to go ahead only with GG cycle CUS of mk3.

I felt that was shortsighted and was glad to see the focus coming back on mk2. In my perspective, India (and ISRO0 needs both staged combustion and the GG cycle engines.

If one notices the ISRO failures in the past decade (and excluding Chandrayaan 2), ISRO failures are more to do with hardware rather than software. For example the PSLV heat shield did not separate. Here the ignition command was given but something happened after that. Either it failed to ignite or did the motor grip issue bedeviled Mk2-CUS again? Both again are hardware problems.

Was the GSLV-Mk2 CUS testing was starved of funds for the team to cut some corners or rely on models to take calculated risks which did not pan out?
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by ramana »

AmberG Thanks for the formulae.
The simple Calc was to show the satellite cannot be used as it would breakup. Especially as payload fairing was already separated about 60 secs earlier to CUS ignition CMD.

If ignition occurred then it's some other mechanism for the anomaly.
Amber G.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

Quote from one of the greatest mind in physics/math - John von Neumann:
It is just as foolish to complain that people are selfish and treacherous as it is to complain that the magnetic field does not increase unless the electric field has a curl. Both are laws of nature. - John von Neumann
Amber G.
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

Pratyush wrote:^^^ this is a load of tripe if ever there was one. The pre 84 crowd were the ones who took the PSLV to success. They were there when the GSLV was first launched. ..
Yes, have to agree - especially about the part about giving less priority to scientific aspects and thinking that solution is not understanding orbital mechanics but waiting for the "old timer morons to be compulsorily retired".
For a rocket to fail. Just one component has to fail. For a success thousands have to work.
Yes.
The solution is to do a thorough RCA. Identify the components responsible and test them to failure again.
This will take time and it needs to be thorough. We will do that. YES, problems are real and serious - can't deny that.
***
What makes me optimistic are *many* people I know, like - just one example - Koppillil Radhakrishnan (Who not only is familiar with ISRO (being a chairman in the past), but at present is BoG of IIT Kanpur , Chairman of IIT Council and among other things, Distinguished Advisor to ISRO) are (have become) quite active in providing needed leadership to new generation of scientists. Many of these scientists, I think much more than in the past, are getting very good support from the government. Things like DST secretary (who just got additional duties for "Earth Sciences" too) have direct ear of PM and there is much less red tape than in past.
(Disclaimer: These are my views - Take it for whatever it's worth. Also I do not live in India, so my perspective may be different but strangely covid brought a new era of better communication and there is much more communication between academic world and governmental agencies)
csaurabh
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by csaurabh »

Pratyush ji do you really think I don't know what I am talking about? I have had to deal with these old timers a few times. Maybe I exaggerated a bit (got carried away by recent bad experience ), but really this is common knowledge within the organization. All the new timers I know personally have barely disguised contempt/disregard for the old timers and can't wait for them to be retired. Same for me.

Fact is that ISRO as an organization will really only start making really good progress after 2024 once all the old timers (pre 1984s) are retired and gone. Just wait and watch.
Pratyush
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

^^^ what you are saying doesnt compute. The old timers are the ones whose sweat and told took PSLV to success.

The GSLV and Cryo technology are proving to be a challenge. The fundamental of the technology is well understood. The mastery of its application could be question mark. Something that can be sorted out with testing and development. Eventually.

Having said all that. The question about mindset amongst the post 94 batch of ISRO people tells me nothing.

Because the older crowd are ones who have actually worked alongside those who were launching rockets that were being towed to the launch pads by bullock carts. When the work shop for assembly of rockets was a church shed.

The people groomed and shaped by interactions with those older people will have a different appreaction of the situation. As opposed to the people of the post liberalisation generation.

I can accept that.

But to say that the old timers are a hindrance to Indian space program is a gross misunderstanding of the situation.

If the younger crowd is genuinely thinking this way. Then more than anything else it shows a lack of maturity in younger crowd.
SSridhar
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by SSridhar »

Pratyush wrote:The GSLV and Cryo technology are proving to be a challenge. The fundamental of the technology is well understood. The mastery of its application could be question mark.
Pratyush, I do not believe that we have not mastered the cryo technology.

Six successive successful launches cannot come about without mastering it. This is a CE7.5 engine (75 kN thrust) with a C15 Stage which have flown multiple times.

While it is true that it could fail the seventh time, other components of the rocket have flown multiple times without failure. It is important that with the upcoming Gaganyaan (though it uses Mk III), we do not encounter failures. The CUS of Mk III is a much enhanced cryo stage operating on Gas Generator cycle with 200 kN thrust and unless ISRO felt that we have mastered the cryo, it would not have been sanctioned in the first place.

Again, I can attribute only two reasons - sabotage (most probable) and QC.
kit
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by kit »

SSridhar wrote: Again, I can attribute only two reasons - sabotage (most probable) and QC.
Don't like conspiration theories, but one needs to consider why and what. Sabotage cannot prevent only delay a new launch. Who is likely to benefit?

In that context top tier spacefaring nations have backup systems and replacements in place for the very such scenario., a "hard" attack or a "soft" kill using espionage or cyber systems.

A "short launch" system works for smaller satellites to LEO but larger ones to GEO takes more resources
Pratyush
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush »

Sridhar, the correct thing to do would be to wait for the investigation to be concluded and understand the mechanism of failure.

Personally, I am quite disgusted at the over emotional responses to failure in space from both ISRO and some of the other professional rudauli's.

Space is challenging. If just 1 of the thousands of things that must go perfectly. Goes wrong, the mission fails.

It doesn't mean that there is an organisational civil war as was alluded by one of the posters.

Or that sabotage happened. It's just that one component didn't do the job that it had to do.

It has to be identified why it failed to perform. The issue solved and re launch the system.

From my POV. Space launch is inherently risky and risk can't be totally eliminated. If the ISRO failure rate is 5%. Compared to 10% for the others space launch agencies. It's good enough.
SSSalvi
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by SSSalvi »

Have they downgraded the bloody dog fights that used to take place in Review Meetings prior to any major event by 'that' pre '84 and pre '95 gang?
There used to be fights in meeting hall and 'Aur Kaise ho yaar?' talks after meeting by those same fighter cocks.

If the modern management technology dislikes disharmony then to hell with it. These things WILL happen.

I am sure there will be some members in those committees who would have thought of the probability of 'Will this component survive the stress' but he/she did not ( or was not allowed to ) bring out that view lest he becomes a laughing stock. Anyway he will have a last laugh when the FAC report comes out.

It is the grass root level worker who knows more about at least the mission that he is working on than the theoreticians - and in the days of those old blokes there was no bar for a screwdriverwala to interrupt in the meeting and put his views at least for the pears to understand his view.
Unfortunately, someone said correctly:

Fact is that ISRO as an organization will really only start making really good progress after 2024 once all the old timers (pre 1984s) are retired and gone. Just wait and watch.
Yes, wait and watch. That last hurdle will be out in another 3 years onlee.

And, I don't see that famous : 'It will fail onlee'
before this mission.
csaurabh
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by csaurabh »

I don't think all the pre 1984 gen are moronic old timers. Otherwise the PSLV would never have got off the ground.
But the fact is that a significant percentage of the current senior management today are very stupid and clueless. I have had too many interactions to have any doubt about that.

We have to remember that it was not only sweat and blood that launched the PSLV. It was also the massive amounts of imports and foreign help. The PSLV is a reverse engineered French rocket after all.
This 'import whatever you want just make the rocket fly somehow' is detrimental to the current progress of Indian space programme.
I have seen too many excellent technology development proposals being torpedoed by the old timers because of their short sightedness and stupidity.

I forgot to mention that another churn ISRO is currently going through is that it is supposed to be split up into ISRO and NSIL. But this split has not properly been decided yet. Old timers are steadfastly against any split in ISRO at all. One gent told me that Modi can say what he likes, they will do nothing.
srin
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Re: Indian Space Program: News & Discussion

Post by srin »

I see that the influence of the "moronic old timers" is only on the cryogenic ignition, and not on the Vikas engine or the solid booster.

Good to see that the convention of kicking when someone is down still goes strong !
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