Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

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Rakesh
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheAvenger82/status ... HpqLX-u5JQ ---> Government of India, intends to procure approximately Quantity 500 Long Range Guidance kit with Warhead (in the short-term) from registered Indian vendors. While a long term requirement of 1,500 such systems is intended. Should be compatible with Rafale, Tejas and Mirage 2000.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by basant »

AKA AASM HAMMER?
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Kartik »

basant wrote:AKA AASM HAMMER?
Seems like it! This would be over and above the stocks purchased directly from France it seems.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by basant »

Mirage and Rafale is understandable, when was it qualified on Tejas? Astra's integration is what I wanted hear but get to see news on JDAM and HAMMER. :|
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... 8lOhAWRqVg ---> Report: Four of IAF's Mi-17 helicopter squadrons have now been dedicated a light attack role. They are armed with ATGMs and rockets. Spike NLOS coming soon.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... Qpw4xfFk5Q ---> IAF will upgrade 86 older Mi-17 helicopters. New systems will include Smart MFDs, TACAN, TCAS, satnav suite, EW suite, MAWS, RWR, IFF, Wx radar, SDR, CMDS, etc.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... Qpw4xfFk5Q ---> IAF fighter pilots to be equipped with electronic flight bags (EFBs) in the near future.

EFBs ---> https://skybrary.aero/articles/electron ... ht-bag-efb
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Thakur_B »

Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... Qpw4xfFk5Q ---> IAF will upgrade 86 older Mi-17 helicopters. New systems will include Smart MFDs, TACAN, TCAS, satnav suite, EW suite, MAWS, RWR, IFF, Wx radar, SDR, CMDS, etc.
Let's hope that IMRH has a quick development like LUH so the older Mi 8 can be replaced quickly.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... 8lOhAWRqVg ---> Report: Four of IAF's Mi-17 helicopter squadrons have now been dedicated a light attack role. They are armed with ATGMs and rockets. Spike NLOS coming soon.
I had missed this news. So does that mean that IAF has at this moment in time over 100 attack helicopters. Including the Mi25/35, the AH64, the attack role tasked Mi 17, plus whatever numbers ATGM armed Chetaks are still in service.

I have not included Rudra to the list as i am not sure if they have started entering service with the IAF.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Kartik »

basant wrote:Mirage and Rafale is understandable, when was it qualified on Tejas? Astra's integration is what I wanted hear but get to see news on JDAM and HAMMER. :|
Not 100% sure if the integration and testing of the Hammer AASM has been done or is in progress or is in the pipeline. But what we do know is that the IAF definitely intends to have it available on it's Tejas Mk1 and Mk1A fleet, along with JDAMs.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Bala Vignesh »

Thakur_B wrote:
Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... Qpw4xfFk5Q ---> IAF will upgrade 86 older Mi-17 helicopters. New systems will include Smart MFDs, TACAN, TCAS, satnav suite, EW suite, MAWS, RWR, IFF, Wx radar, SDR, CMDS, etc.
Let's hope that IMRH has a quick development like LUH so the older Mi 8 can be replaced quickly.
Thakur ji,

Mi-8 has been decommissioned for almost 3 years now. We only operate Mi17-1V and Mi17-V5 now.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by VickyAvinash »

Kartik wrote:
Not 100% sure if the integration and testing of the Hammer AASM has been done or is in progress or is in the pipeline. But what we do know is that the IAF definitely intends to have it available on it's Tejas Mk1 and Mk1A fleet, along with JDAMs.
It is integrated on Tejas https://www.overtdefense.com/2022/04/29 ... rom-tejas/
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

X-Post from the Rafale thread...
Rakesh wrote:India stations Rafale fighters at Leh, sends tough message to China
https://www.etvbharat.com/english/natio ... 0366366234
13 July 2022
I am always amused by headlines like this. PRC today has nearly 2000 aircrafts without about 1000 being 4th generation.

Plus thousands of cruise missiles.

They're going to be impressed by a force of just 36 Rafales sending a strong message.

Or they are going to die laughing rolling on the floor.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ldev »

Pratyush wrote:
Rakesh wrote:India stations Rafale fighters at Leh, sends tough message to China
https://www.etvbharat.com/english/natio ... 0366366234
13 July 2022
I am always amused by headlines like this. PRC today has nearly 2000 aircrafts without about 1000 being 4th generation.

Plus thousands of cruise missiles.

They're going to be impressed by a force of just 36 Rafales sending a strong message.

Or they are going to die laughing rolling on the floor.
By some estimates, the PLAAF has inducted 875 4th and 5th generation aircraft from 2011 to 2021. The estimate is that currently they are inducting about 80-85 aircraft per year of which about 20-25 are J-20s, and the rest are a mixture of J-11s (their version of the SU-30 with their AESA radar), J-10Cs and J-16s. These numbers do not include PLAN. When the smaller FC-31 5th gen fighter is ready, 5th gen production and induction will be at least 50% and probably more of total production/induction. The bottleneck had been jet engines but now the WS-15 engine powers the J-20 (replacing the less powerful WS-10 which in turn replaced the Russian AL-31FP), production is expected to increase sharply. India cannot plan on having 36 Rafale and 83 Tejas MK1a to face off against the PLAAF and planned Tejas mK 2 production of 12-14 planes per year.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

Pratyush wrote:I am always amused by headlines like this. PRC today has nearly 2000 aircrafts without about 1000 being 4th generation.

Plus thousands of cruise missiles.

They're going to be impressed by a force of just 36 Rafales sending a strong message.

Or they are going to die laughing rolling on the floor.
Not possible to match the PLAAF one for one. We can wish that as much as we want, it will bankrupt us. Every Service Chief has said this.

If 36 Rafales are not going to make them dhoti shiver, then will 114 MRFA? Or 200 Tejas Mk2s? Nothing that we can realistically afford is going to match the PRC on paper. So they can die laughing via amusement onlee.

The PRC also has something that India will never have at the national level - communism. There is no one to question their budget, what platform is being acquired and why. The PRC is the Supreme Court, the Overlord and the All Seeing Eye. Good luck implementing that in India.

Even the most powerful military force on earth (the US military) has to have their budget vetted by their Congress. It is foolish to look at the PRC's numbers and then do rona-dhona.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Bart S »

Rakesh wrote:
Pratyush wrote:I am always amused by headlines like this. PRC today has nearly 2000 aircrafts without about 1000 being 4th generation.

Plus thousands of cruise missiles.

They're going to be impressed by a force of just 36 Rafales sending a strong message.

Or they are going to die laughing rolling on the floor.
Not possible to match the PLAAF one for one. We can wish that as much as we want, it will bankrupt us. Every Service Chief has said this.

If 36 Rafales are not going to make them dhoti shiver, then will 114 MRFA? Or 200 Tejas Mk2s? Nothing that we can realistically afford is going to match the PRC on paper. So they can die laughing via amusement onlee.
Also unnecessary. Their planes are spread across their wide country with multiple combatants from SK, Japan, USN, Taiwan, Vietnam etc to deal with. Even if they move all of them over to our border through some extraordinary feat, they can only operate as many as their forward infrastructure allows.

So we basically need to beat whatever they have in Tibet and Xinjiang, and unlike them we have the advantage that whatever we base in the northern part of the country can easily be used against both adversaries in the vicinity.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

Bart S wrote:Also unnecessary. Their planes are spread across their wide country with multiple combatants from SK, Japan, USN, Taiwan, Vietnam etc to deal with. Even if they move all of them over to our border through some extraordinary feat, they can only operate as many as their forward infrastructure allows.

So we basically need to beat whatever they have in Tibet and Xinjiang, and unlike them we have the advantage that whatever we base in the northern part of the country can easily be used against both adversaries in the vicinity.
Try not to use logic Sirjee. It will not work. Terms like "what their forward infrastructure permits" will go over the head.

Keep it simple onlee -- they will die laughing via amusement :)
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by KSingh »

Pratyush wrote:
Rakesh wrote:India stations Rafale fighters at Leh, sends tough message to China
https://www.etvbharat.com/english/natio ... 0366366234
13 July 2022
I am always amused by headlines like this. PRC today has nearly 2000 aircrafts without about 1000 being 4th generation.

Plus thousands of cruise missiles.

They're going to be impressed by a force of just 36 Rafales sending a strong message.

Or they are going to die laughing rolling on the floor.
If you are China you couldn’t be more happy with having as feckless a foe as india in its position. Imagine having a Japan in India’s geographic position and with its Human Resources, you’d be in a perpetual state of dread if you were Beijing. Instead you have an india there , a nation that takes 20+ years to talk about ordering 126+63 jets that results in just 36 jets who then begin the 20+ year process all over again.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

KSingh wrote:If you are China you couldn’t be more happy with having as feckless a foe as india in its position. Imagine having a Japan in India’s geographic position and with its Human Resources, you’d be in a perpetual state of dread if you were Beijing. Instead you have an india there , a nation that takes 20+ years to talk about ordering 126+63 jets that results in just 36 jets who then begin the 20+ year process all over again.
No matter how modern fighter aircraft that the IAF can realistically acquire (even the famed 126+63 planned order) will match what the PLAAF has. It is not possible to match the PLAAF one for one. We just do not have the resources for it. Add another 200 Tejas Mk2s to that mix and it still will not make a dent in the numbers. The PLAAF will always have the numerical advantage. Qualitative advantage is a whole other story.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by KSingh »

Rakesh wrote:
KSingh wrote:If you are China you couldn’t be more happy with having as feckless a foe as india in its position. Imagine having a Japan in India’s geographic position and with its Human Resources, you’d be in a perpetual state of dread if you were Beijing. Instead you have an india there , a nation that takes 20+ years to talk about ordering 126+63 jets that results in just 36 jets who then begin the 20+ year process all over again.
No matter how modern fighter aircraft that the IAF can realistically acquire (even the famed 126+63 planned order) will match what the PLAAF has. It is not possible to match the PLAAF one for one. We just do not have the resources for it. Add another 200 Tejas Mk2s to that mix and it still will not make a dent in the numbers. The PLAAF will always have the numerical advantage. Qualitative advantage is a whole other story.
Okay but there’s a big difference in ~30 squadrons made up of MiG-21s, Jaguars, Mirages etc and ~30 squadrons of Rafales, LCA etc


India has ceded quantitative and qualitative advantages to PLA
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

KSingh wrote:Okay but there’s a big difference in ~30 squadrons made up of MiG-21s, Jaguars, Mirages etc and ~30 squadrons of Rafales, LCA etc

India has ceded quantitative and qualitative advantages to PLA
Absolutely. I full agree KSingh. Well said.

The qualitative advantage of Tejas Mk1As + Tejas Mk2s + Rafales + Su-30MKIs is far better than a force strength of MiG-21s, MiG-29s, Mirage 2000s and Su-30MKIs.

The sad reality is this rather than order another four more units of the Mk1A and place an order of intent for 200 Tejas Mk2s, the IAF is only interested in acquiring 114 MRFAs. From there, they want to jump straight to AMCA.

We don't want to learn our lesson the easy way. We will learn it then the hard way.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ShivS »

Lot of emotion. Till around 2035, we will need to replace nearly 350-400 aircraft. Mig 21, Jaguar, Mig 29 and Mirage 2000s.

Room for the imports, the Mk1a and the vadda Tejas. Imports are needed.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

ShivS wrote:Lot of emotion. Till around 2035, we will need to replace nearly 350-400 aircraft. Mig 21, Jaguar, Mig 29 and Mirage 2000s.

Room for the imports, the Mk1a and the vadda Tejas. Imports are needed.
Imports are needed. I made that point ---> viewtopic.php?p=2555227#p2555227

To replace the nearly 400 aircraft - as you have indicated above - they are looking at 83 Tejas Mk1As + 114 MRFAs. That is Air HQ's plan.

The problem is the pithy orders that they gave for the Mk1A, the silence over the Tejas Mk2 and this inexplainable reason to jump directly from Mk1A to AMCA.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ShivS »

I am sure you have your sources, but the fact is that a depleting fighter fleet has been one of the IAF’s biggest issues.

This would mean a 27 or 28 squadron force.

Don’t see that happening.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

ShivS wrote:I am sure you have your sources, but the fact is that a depleting fighter fleet has been one of the IAF’s biggest issues.

This would mean a 27 or 28 squadron force.

Don’t see that happening.
One cannot make up numbers. The numbers are what they are.

Neither can one extend the life of the MiG-29, Mirage 2000 and Jaguar beyond a certain point. The MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 fleet will hit nearly 50 years when they retire in the early 2030s. The Jaguars will be a bit older, as the first lot (which arrived in the late 70s) is being phased out.

So 27 or 28 squadrons is very likely, even with 114 MRFA. That is the reality that Air HQ has set its self up for. Unless they want to increase the number of MRFA or start yet another never ending quest for a new foreign (5th gen) fighter. The other option is to order additional Tejas Mk1As and place a large order for the Tejas Mk2.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Cain Marko »

I think the only non critical assessment of the IAFs treatment of the Tejas can be that the force is extremely reluctant to have a large chunk of it's fighter fleet powered by the US GE engine. At a strategic level they may have taken into account the possiblity of Indias growth and penchant for a multi polar and independent foreign policy being treated as hostile by the US.

The Navy however may order the shornet... Sort of like a hafta for the big man in the room that India will still pay until it is big enough itself.

Just my positive spin on this whole drama and the step motherly treatment meted out to the Desi bird.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Neela »

When war breaks out, cost of all imported spares will go up dramatically. If you are an Indian company , you would be rewarded well but govt will not bleed. Does the IAF have any ownership of the financial implications - are they a stakeholder or are they a end-user keeping every other institution at arms length to preserve <whatever>
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by AkshaySG »

Cain Marko wrote:I think the only non critical assessment of the IAFs treatment of the Tejas can be that the force is extremely reluctant to have a large chunk of it's fighter fleet powered by the US GE engine. At a strategic level they may have taken into account the possiblity of Indias growth and penchant for a multi polar and independent foreign policy being treated as hostile by the US.

The Navy however may order the shornet... Sort of like a hafta for the big man in the room that India will still pay until it is big enough itself.

Just my positive spin on this whole drama and the step motherly treatment meted out to the Desi bird.
That would make sense if the IAF and the government had then come together to fund the indigenous engine development and prioritize it due to extreme national and strategic importance

What good is rejecting large number of LCA's and not replacing those numbers at all or worse yet replacing them with just as prone to sanction Western Jets.

Even keeping that in mind the financial, technological and other advantages that a large order of Tejas and it's follow up variants brings is too big to refuse solely on basis of potential future sanctions .
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ldev »

Bart S wrote: Also unnecessary. Their planes are spread across their wide country with multiple combatants from SK, Japan, USN, Taiwan, Vietnam etc to deal with. Even if they move all of them over to our border through some extraordinary feat, they can only operate as many as their forward infrastructure allows.

So we basically need to beat whatever they have in Tibet and Xinjiang, and unlike them we have the advantage that whatever we base in the northern part of the country can easily be used against both adversaries in the vicinity.
You are talking about a country that opened 58 NEW airports between 2012 to the end of 2020, for a total of 241 airports. That is 7 new airports per year. They have plans of adding 10 new airports per year all the way to 2035 for a grand total of 400 airports. You are also talking about a country that built 3 airbases in the middle of the South China Sea, from atolls that were half under the sea, 1000 km from the nearest Chinese territory of Hainan Island, each airbase has a 10,000 feet runway. You are talking about a country that has two thirds of all High Speed Rail Lines (250-300 kph speeds) in the world. Say what you may say about the quality of their construction but do you really think that if they wanted to, they will be unable to build 10 new airbases in Tibet/Xinjiang if they really viewed India as a threat? And get rid of that so called forward basing infrastructure constraint? As K Singh says, China is happy to have a country such as India nestled to it's vulnerable soft underbelly. A Japan geographically in India's position would have given them nightmares.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

AkshaySG wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:I think the only non critical assessment of the IAFs treatment of the Tejas can be that the force is extremely reluctant to have a large chunk of it's fighter fleet powered by the US GE engine. At a strategic level they may have taken into account the possiblity of Indias growth and penchant for a multi polar and independent foreign policy being treated as hostile by the US.

The Navy however may order the shornet... Sort of like a hafta for the big man in the room that India will still pay until it is big enough itself.

Just my positive spin on this whole drama and the step motherly treatment meted out to the Desi bird.
That would make sense if the IAF and the government had then come together to fund the indigenous engine development and prioritize it due to extreme national and strategic importance

What good is rejecting large number of LCA's and not replacing those numbers at all or worse yet replacing them with just as prone to sanction Western Jets.

Even keeping that in mind the financial, technological and other advantages that a large order of Tejas and it's follow up variants brings is too big to refuse solely on basis of potential future sanctions .
They don't want to induct the Tejas Mk2, no matter what they say at press conferences. Currently, they don't even mention the Tejas Mk2. This batch of 80s commissioned officers have zero faith in HAL to deliver anything. And this decade of officers are all in senior leadership positions.

When they realize (they already know it to be honest) that they are looking at 27 squadrons post the retirement of the MiG-29, Mirage 2000 and Jaguar units in the early to mid 2030s...then they will just continue with the MRFA production line. Then the argument will be why invest in a new Tejas Mk2 line, when the existing MRFA line can serve the same need. It will go beyond 114 MRFA.

The AMCA will take time to fruition. We are looking at a FOC of no earlier than the mid 2030s.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

Neela wrote:When war breaks out, cost of all imported spares will go up dramatically. If you are an Indian company , you would be rewarded well but govt will not bleed. Does the IAF have any ownership of the financial implications - are they a stakeholder or are they a end-user keeping every other institution at arms length to preserve <whatever>
Neela, a future war with India and China will not be a long drawn out affair. Especially like the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

If it takes China that long to hand India a decisive defeat, that one should seriously reconsider the PRC's war fighting capability. It will be short, it will be swift and the loss of life will be significantly painful for the losing side to accept the terms of surrender. I will stick my neck out and say it will be around a week or at the most two (even that is stretching it). Both India and China are interconnected to the global economy. Most manufacturing goods come from China and significant portion of BPO services come from India.

It is not like China and India can announce to the world that they are going to war for an extended length of time like how Ukraine and Russia are in. A long drawn out conflict will hurt both countries' economies and it will cause irrevocable damage to the global economy. The international community will not permit such a conflict either, as it directly affects their own well being. Therefore the cost of spares - in times of conflict - will not be the most pressing concern.

If the IAF ends up with the Rafale as the winner of the MRFA, it will be the upgrade costs (F4, F5, F6 + ISE) that will give us the sticker shock. Everything else is a known variable right now to the IAF i.e. unit cost of the Rafale, the ISE upgrades, the weapons, the tools, the spares and even the maintenance & operational costs. It is also two years - to the month - that the Rafale has been in active service with the IAF, as the first batch arrived at Ambala AFS in July 2020. So there is no ambiguity with the Rafale on that front.

If the Mirage 2000 upgrade was a sticker shock for India ($43 million per plane), a future F4, F5 or F6 upgrade with ISE will give the MoD Babu asthma attacks. The Eurofighter will be even more expensive, the Gripen should not be much cheaper than the Rafale. Only the American F-teens will have a "relatively" cheaper upgrade cost. And that is because of economies of scale. But then the F-teens come with a whole other set of (even more expensive) problems than the Rafale.

GOTUS is just unreliable & untrustworthy and cannot be counted upon other than their own interests. But that is not an issue that is germane to this thread. The need for 114 MRFA (Rafale) is valid, as the numbers clearly indicate that. What would be a geopolitical disaster for India is if the IAF ends up with any other MRFA other than the Rafale. There are also other factors at play here, but will again divert from this thread topic.

And yes Neela, I am contradicting myself in a single post. I am arguing for 114 Rafale, but equally stating that the a future upgrade cost of the Rafale will be exorbitantly expensive. But this is the situation that the IAF has landed itself in.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by bala »

Cain Marko wrote:large chunk of it's fighter fleet powered by the US GE engine
Neela wrote:When war breaks out
This can be managed by acquiring extra GE engines as insurance especially during war. This is SOP of companies which protect themselves against vagaries of supply chain and/or closure of company or in our case during War it is US applied sanctions.
Rakesh wrote:80s commissioned officers have zero faith in HAL
Looks like India Army has more faith in HAL supplied Helos. They have acquired the LCH too. The IAF has some LCAs and the 83 order is in the works.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

bala wrote:This can be managed by acquiring extra GE engines as insurance especially during war. This is SOP of companies which protect themselves against vagaries of supply chain and/or closure of company or in our case during War it is US applied sanctions.
Mod Note: bala-ji, when replying to multiple posters...please put the name of the posters you are quoting. Easier for readers who are following the thread. I have edited your post.

===========================================

In a short conflict, additional GE engines will be the least of India's worries.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by VinodTK »

When history of IAF is written historians will not be kind to:
- IAF Chiefs
- Bureaucracy
- Raksha Mantri's
- Finance Ministers
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Bart S »

ldev wrote:
Bart S wrote: Also unnecessary. Their planes are spread across their wide country with multiple combatants from SK, Japan, USN, Taiwan, Vietnam etc to deal with. Even if they move all of them over to our border through some extraordinary feat, they can only operate as many as their forward infrastructure allows.

So we basically need to beat whatever they have in Tibet and Xinjiang, and unlike them we have the advantage that whatever we base in the northern part of the country can easily be used against both adversaries in the vicinity.
You are talking about a country that opened 58 NEW airports between 2012 to the end of 2020, for a total of 241 airports. That is 7 new airports per year. They have plans of adding 10 new airports per year all the way to 2035 for a grand total of 400 airports. You are also talking about a country that built 3 airbases in the middle of the South China Sea, from atolls that were half under the sea, 1000 km from the nearest Chinese territory of Hainan Island, each airbase has a 10,000 feet runway. You are talking about a country that has two thirds of all High Speed Rail Lines (250-300 kph speeds) in the world. Say what you may say about the quality of their construction but do you really think that if they wanted to, they will be unable to build 10 new airbases in Tibet/Xinjiang if they really viewed India as a threat? And get rid of that so called forward basing infrastructure constraint? As K Singh says, China is happy to have a country such as India nestled to it's vulnerable soft underbelly. A Japan geographically in India's position would have given them nightmares.
They can build airports, but not at short notice during a war. Building runways is easy but not necessarily the entire supporting infrastructure, supply and logistics chain required to actually operate a massive offensive from there. If they do decide to ramp up infrastructure in Tibet that drastically, we should have plenty of advance warning. Also, this is OT but their HSR build was an expensive boondoggle that is largely unused or heavily underutilized (except fro the major routes like Beijing-Shanghai) and this project alone has saddled them with almost $1T of debt (which is not even counting the debt taken on by local govts for it), so while all of this creates 'shock and awe' (which is probably their intention) a lot of it will backfire in the end.

Of course, none of this excuses the inefficiency with ramping up numbers of LCA at least on our side, but it is completely pointless to compare absolute numbers and draw inferences from that alone.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ShivS »

Probably the wrong place, but nevertheless -

The IAF cheered the Tejas quite strongly after Gagan Shakti in 2018. If they are moving away there is likely to be one of two key reasons:

1. The IAF is disappointed with HAL's delivery rates or the Mk1.

Its been surprising that the Mk1 IOC squadron is still at Sulur - it should have been deployed at the Western or Eastern border. Every month that this is delayed is bad news. As far as I know, the Derby (ER or otherwise) has been integrated so the full weapons package is functional. I wonder what availability rates are like and how the plane is shaping up.

On the other hand the AMCA is being developed with HAL, so there can't be a complete breakdown in trust.

2. The second reason is that the IAF does not see a place for a Tejas Mk 2 entering service somewhere in 2028-2032 in its capacity and capability planning - hence it prefers a MRFA program with far lower program risks.

That decision is the IAF's prerogative. If their view is that they would rather have a decline in squadron strength to sub 30 numbers but focus resources on the AMCA, MFRA and Su30 upgrades - well, they have the right to make that call.

There is a third option - the IAF will reserve judgement till is sees the Mk2 fly. Funding has not been stopped on the Mk2 program, its progressing as planned. Some "show me" is not a bad idea given the past experience with Indian weapons design and manufacturing.

Some random facts

1. There is an undercurrent of hostility towards the Tejas - not sure why. I wish some data was available on the availability, combat outcomes in training and we saw the Tejas participate in combat exercises and deployed to the hot borders. This would dispel a lot of the FUD.

2. On cost - while the Mirage upgrade caused heartburn, it had no strategic implication whatsoever. We can afford it - if anything the exceedingly slow pace of the upgrade is a far bigger disappointment.

3. Neither the Tejas Mk2, not the MFRA will make an immediate impact - at best the Mk2 will enter service in meaningful numbers in the early 30s and the MFRA may be a little ahead of that.

The solutions to that issue are different.

Lets not always make decisions a function of personalities (IAF chiefs from the 80s) - there may be reasons that are unpleasant but reflect reality.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by KSingh »

ShivS wrote:Lot of emotion. Till around 2035, we will need to replace nearly 350-400 aircraft. Mig 21, Jaguar, Mig 29 and Mirage 2000s.

Room for the imports, the Mk1a and the vadda Tejas. Imports are needed.
Who told IAF to cap LCA MK1/1A numbers at 123 units? The ONLY fighter after 2022 that is actually in production for them but they put an arbitrary limit at 7 squadrons which isn’t enough to cover the retired MiG-21/23/27 numbers.

Nor are they firm on the 200+ LCA MK.2 commitment anymore, last I heard they wanted 126 of them now, at the rate that IAF chiefs are cutting projections for it they’ll order 36 by 2029.

A bird in the hand and all that.

All their attention seems to be on their holy grail (100+ MMRCA) that successive generations of IAF brass have been indoctrinated to believe this is the answer to all their issues. First talks for MRCA started almost 25 years ago now and the current MRFA process is slated to be another 10-15+ year saga in the meantime the world has changed but they doggedly stick to the same plan?

Doing the same thing again and again expecting a different result….
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by KSingh »

Cain Marko wrote:I think the only non critical assessment of the IAFs treatment of the Tejas can be that the force is extremely reluctant to have a large chunk of it's fighter fleet powered by the US GE engine. At a strategic level they may have taken into account the possiblity of Indias growth and penchant for a multi polar and independent foreign policy being treated as hostile by the US.

The Navy however may order the shornet... Sort of like a hafta for the big man in the room that India will still pay until it is big enough itself.

Just my positive spin on this whole drama and the step motherly treatment meted out to the Desi bird.
This is an excuse looking for an answer.


IF this was an issue why when HAL/ADA were running their selection between the EJ2000 and GE404 did the GoI/IAF not intervene in favour of the European engine? Why are they allowing Kaveri to die a slow death? Why are they accepting that the LCA MK.2, TEDBF and AMCA MK.1 will all be GE powered?


This is some high level sabotage if true- say nothing the entire development cycle then at the last moment ‘but American engine, we have to import to keep ourselves strategically autonomous’
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ks_sachin »

ShivS wrote:Probably the wrong place, but nevertheless -
A most depressing post….
I am loosing faith in our military leadership!!!!
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

ShivS wrote:Probably the wrong place, but nevertheless -

The IAF cheered the Tejas quite strongly after Gagan Shakti in 2018. If they are moving away there is likely to be one of two key reasons:

1. The IAF is disappointed with HAL's delivery rates or the Mk1.
The shoe should be on the other foot - we should be disappointed with the IAF for ordering a pithy 40 Mk1s. I will be amazed if Air HQ then has the gall to complain about HAL's low delivery rates, after ordering just a tiny number. Increase the order book of 'X' platform and the order delivery rate of said platform will correspondingly increase as well. That has been proven time and time again.

Disappointment with the Mk1 would be appreciated and understood, but then this is the same IAF that operates the MiG-21 Bison in 2022. So the IAF loses credibility on that front. Granted the Mk1 is not an AESA-equipped, medium weight fighter. But if the IAF is complaining about the Mk1 not having sufficient legs, it was designed as a MiG-21 replacement. Air HQ was fully aware of this during the entire developmental phase. Tejas is not some jack that sprung out of the box and yelled Surprise!

And if Air HQ is complaining about the Mk1's inefficiencies, then neither is the MiG-21 is anything to crow about and at present fields four frontline squadrons. If the balloon goes up tomorrow, the MiG-21 will go into battle. We lost three experienced MiG-21 Bison pilots in 2021 due to Air HQ's indifference towards the Mk1. One of the pilots was the CO of TACDE. Apart from the personal loss to their families, losing experienced pilots hurts the IAF.

The disappointment argument in relation to the Mk1 platform is really not going to fly.

If it was not for Manohar Parrikar who pushed the Mk1A onto the IAF, this would be the same Air HQ who would be sitting on their thumbs right now waiting for the holy grail to come to fruition ---> the 114 MRFA program. It is very sad and tragic that it took a Defence Minister - with zero experience in defence - to read through the entire Tejas program file and come up with a solution in the form of the Mk1A. Why did this initiative not come from Air HQ? Why did Air HQ not come up with this solution? What were the Air Marshals doing?

For the past 20+ years, they have been burning the midnight oil chasing some mirage in the desert (and still continue to do so) called the MMRCA and now known as the MRFA. They know the Mk1 is way ahead of the MiG-21 Bison and the Mk1A will be eons ahead. But they will not invest in further Mk1 or Mk1A units, as that takes away their precious CAPEX from the 114 MRFA purchase. They will not upgrade the Su-30MKI, because again that takes away from the 114 MRFA purchase.

But Air HQ will state at every press conference, that the IAF is fully capable of dealing with a two front war. Air HQ complains about squadron shortage and thus not being able to conduct full spectrum of operations, but their own MRFA acquisition plan does not address squadron shortage either. But still they are eager to induct 114 MRFA, but are silent on additional Mk1As or even talk about the Tejas Mk2.
ShivS wrote:Its been surprising that the Mk1 IOC squadron is still at Sulur - it should have been deployed at the Western or Eastern border. Every month that this is delayed is bad news. As far as I know, the Derby (ER or otherwise) has been integrated so the full weapons package is functional. I wonder what availability rates are like and how the plane is shaping up.
The plan was to transition the FOC unit to a frontline base in the Western theatre. But it appears now that plan has changed with some of the FOC units converting to Mk1A flying test beds. So staying at Sulur appears to be the plan now. Once the 83 Mk1A order starts deliveries, the entire FOC Mk1 unit should see conversion to the Mk1A and will be redeployed.
ShivS wrote:On the other hand the AMCA is being developed with HAL, so there can't be a complete breakdown in trust.
Air HQ can play it safe on AMCA, because it is not coming anytime in the near future. It does not matter what HAL says, the AMCA will not arrive anytime before the mid 2030s. Air HQ has kicked that can down the road. There is no trust to verify for now. That is a moot point.
ShivS wrote:2. The second reason is that the IAF does not see a place for a Tejas Mk 2 entering service somewhere in 2028-2032 in its capacity and capability planning - hence it prefers a MRFA program with far lower program risks.
There is no MRFA coming in the timeframe that is required. The plan is to induct ~12 MRFA a year. That works out to a 9.5 year delivery schedule for 114 aircraft. Payments are made on aircraft delivered and 12 is what they envisage they can afford with the CAPEX, in addition to their other concurrently running acquisition programs. So much for addressing the squadron shortage. The first 18 will come from the OEM and the next 96 examples from a screwdrivergiri factory in India. We are in RFI stage with this acquisition and it is well known how that works out. It took us 20+ years to get 36 Rafales.

The MRFA program does not arrest their falling squadron numbers, as the numbers being inducted will be less than what they will be retiring in the 2030s. The risk of low squadron numbers is still very much there. This is why the Tejas Mk2 (and additional Tejas Mk1As) are crucial.
ShivS wrote:That decision is the IAF's prerogative. If their view is that they would rather have a decline in squadron strength to sub 30 numbers but focus resources on the AMCA, MFRA and Su30 upgrades - well, they have the right to make that call.
I believe you said you don't see the IAF moving to a 27 or 28 squadron force. Why the turn around?

* No announcements have been made on the Su-30MKI upgrade, as the focus is on 114 MRFA.
* AMCA is khayali pulao this decade and will be in the first half of the next decade.
* MRFA in any meaningful numbers will not come anytime this decade.

At nearly every press event since this current Air Chief took over, he mentions three things;

1) The IAF has invested in 83 Tejas Mk1As.
2) The IAF wants the 114 MRFA program to reach fruition to meet the numbers.
3) The IAF is fully behind the AMCA program.

That's it.
ShivS wrote:There is a third option - the IAF will reserve judgement till is sees the Mk2 fly. Funding has not been stopped on the Mk2 program, its progressing as planned. Some "show me" is not a bad idea given the past experience with Indian weapons design and manufacturing.
That is a nice punt which the IAF has used to great effect with local platforms. Yet this same rule does not apply to all the subpar (at first) foreign platforms they acquired. Some examples;

1) Under powered Jaguars (Mk 804)
2) Under powered Mirage 2000s (M53-5)
3) Less powerful radars on MiG-29s
4) Less capable Su-30Ks

Some "show me" to the IAF is translated as "show me the best". If it is not the best, then I don't want it. This is the strategy. Iterative block improvements is not something they are interested in entertaining with local platforms.

When forced (like Manohar Parrikar did with the Mk1A), then we have to listen to parochial lectures from Air HQ as to how much concessions they have given to the Tejas program, how the enemy will not give such concessions and no where else in the world will you see such a commitment towards local platforms. The irony of the last one is tragic, but the hilarity of it overcomes the tragedy.

The sheer lie in that line is clearly evident, but yet not a single member of the press calls out Air HQ on it. None of them ask about the Tejas Mk2 either. The media are gullibly swallowing whatever Air HQ tells them, for continued access to generate news for their channel or media house.
ShivS wrote:Some random facts

1. There is an undercurrent of hostility towards the Tejas - not sure why. I wish some data was available on the availability, combat outcomes in training and we saw the Tejas participate in combat exercises and deployed to the hot borders. This would dispel a lot of the FUD.
Nothing mysterious here. It is a funding and CAPEX issue. It is that simple. There is no data that needs to be parsed.
ShivS wrote:2. On cost - while the Mirage upgrade caused heartburn, it had no strategic implication whatsoever. We can afford it - if anything the exceedingly slow pace of the upgrade is a far bigger disappointment.
It was never the monetary affordability that is the issue. It usually never is in India.

It is the bureaucracy - that has zero clue about matters of national security - that are left to make financial decisions on military programs.

So when the Rafale comes up for upgrades (F4, F5 or F6), it is the Babu that will throw a spanner in the works.

India - especially now - is not monetarily poor, but is poor in outlook on matters of defence.
ShivS wrote:3. Neither the Tejas Mk2, not the MFRA will make an immediate impact - at best the Mk2 will enter service in meaningful numbers in the early 30s and the MFRA may be a little ahead of that.
I would love for the Air Chief to give a talk on the Tejas Mk2, as he so eagerly talks about 114 MRFA.

Now one can claim that the Air Chief has not been shown the "show me" about the Mk2. But the counter argument to that is why do you not have an IAF team that is working with ADA on that front? Are they giving Air HQ regular updates about the program? What capabilities are coming? What are the envisaged numbers in the pipeline? How do they foresee the Mk2 fitting into force structure? The Mk2s is mentioned in one word syllables at Air HQ, when asked by the media.

Q. What is the future force structure?
A. Tejas Mk1, 114 MRFA and AMCA

Q. And Tejas Mk2?
A. Yes

But yet, this is the same Air Chief that talks about the AMCA like the back of his hand. Air HQs knows the required numbers (the first two units will be Mk1s with GE F414 turbofans and the next five units will be Mk2s with indigenous turbofans) of seven units. They know that AMCA will have 5.5 generation capabilities. AMCA will have an internal weapons payload. AMCA will act as a mother ship for autonomous drone platforms that will enter enemy airspace to conduct strikes, etc, etc.

Air HQ is fully aware of one program that will arrive in the mid 2030s and the risk associated with it, but eerily silent (to the point of willful ignorance) on another that is a low hanging fruit and will be available this decade. Why?
ShivS wrote:The solutions to that issue are different.

Lets not always make decisions a function of personalities (IAF chiefs from the 80s) - there may be reasons that are unpleasant but reflect reality.
The unpleasant reason that reflects reality is plain and simple ---> the IAF does not want to invest manpower and financial resources into a long intensive program, which can instead be readily sought by purchasing airframes from abroad. Why take the hard route, when the easy route is available. The GOI is gullible and clueless, so let's take them for a ride and get the best. Unfortunately, best is the enemy of good enough.

Importing is all that these Air Marshals know. And it is not IAF chiefs from the 80s, but rather 80s era commissioned officers who are now in senior leadership positions at Air HQ. They are the decision makers today and as young Flying Officers and Flight Lieutenants in the 80s, they cut their teeth on HAL-produced examples of MiG-21s, MiG-27s and Jaguars. They have sordid experiences of HAL's QC from back then and carry it with them to this day.

Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha wanted 200 - 250 Rafale aircraft. The 114 number is only the first batch. A second batch of 86 (or more) will be readily entertained by Air HQ, if the GOI gives them that option. The ultimate goal is perpetual importing.

India needs 200-250 Rafales to maintain edge: Arup Raha
https://www.livemint.com/Politics/hHJn9 ... -Raha.html
28 Dec 2016

Let Air HQ have a candid & honest discussion with the PMO and tell them the following --->

1) The Tejas Mk1 is a sub-standard platform that does not meet our requirements. She is overweight, underpowered and not technologically adequate to meet the needs of air operations in the 21st century.

2) The Tejas Mk1A was forced upon us by the previous Raksha Mantri. But since the order has already been placed, we will induct it. However, we do not want to further invest financial resources or manpower into future Tejas variants (i.e. the Mk2).

3) We are invested in the Rafale and would like to continue with further imports of Rafale or another suitable MRFA.

Do one thing - either import OR invest in local platforms. But please don't do half baked efforts in both. Take a stand on one and stick to it. But spare us all the talk of Atmanirbhar Bharat at press conferences, but then go and do the exact opposite. That is hypocrisy.

I get the squadron strength and the air combat requirements with 114 MRFA, but another four more Mk1A units and an order of intent of 200 Tejas Mk2s is going to affect the IAF negatively how? No air force - the world over - inducts more foreign platforms, when they have a local military aviation industry (and a homegrown platform to boot) at home. Only in India does that dichotomy exist.

But will Air HQ invest in further Tejas units? That is the question to ask.
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