Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

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Neela
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Neela »

That Netra fiasco triggers me every pucking time. How on earth would any country let go of such cost effective system. They used it in Balakot. Why stop at just 32 aircraft.The corruption background is just an excuse.
There is a huge learning curve for system specific integration which you iterate over the first few versions to get to an optimal platform. And the cost - was the investment recuperated ? Indeed the IAF has unhealthy spending habits and drowning such programs with absolutely poor vision. And now it is shaken grounds up with an Airbus as base. How do you justify the investment for Airbus modifications and consulting charges - it is nightmare for any company to work with IAF.
It is unbelievable that Netra is also not commoditized for export. And easily maybe $50 million in lifetime revenues per aircraft for the OEM and country. For a country like Indonesia with scattered islands, imagine what 3 Netras can do.

The Nitin Gokale interview with chief is interesting - the headlines read "fully committed to AtmaNirbhar" but then a less than enthusiastic commitments in the contents. Looks like someone has sent a note to the PM soon after and a counter statement is made. Also mentioned before , IAF is being clever by making tall promises on AMCA - an aircraft which is still 10 years away. But They have the Mk1,Mk1A in hand and ready for mass orders - yet they make partial commits.

Sorry to say but the IAF dithering, delays, grandisose thinking , making OEMs jump over hoops, protracted timelines, unsure commits over several decades - all speak of lack of management quality, lack of vision, lack of professionalism in program and risk management . They only have their sorry selves to blame for the backlash. "We are the ones fighting the war, not civilians" argument is not enough when their historical track record is heavily working against them.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Karan M »

The Nitin Gokale interview with chief is interesting - the headlines read "fully committed to AtmaNirbhar" but then a less than enthusiastic commitments in the contents. Looks like someone has sent a note to the PM soon after and a counter statement is made. Also mentioned before , IAF is being clever by making tall promises on AMCA - an aircraft which is still 10 years away. But They have the Mk1,Mk1A in hand and ready for mass orders - yet they make partial commits.
Exactly, the commitment to AMCA is also contingent upon there being a desi engine , the basic AMCA is only committed for 2 squadrons (and again, you can bet if it is not up to spec in some fashion, we will see cribs), and the advanced one, when a new engine comes, and *provided* it meets ASQR, then 3-4 squadrons or some such number.

MK1A is all but round the corner, and no real commitment beyond 4 squadrons.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by kit »

The moment GOI commits to large scale foreign fighter purchase, one can be sure that IAF won't have the requisite strength in numbers. For the foreseeable future. Also it would mean GOI would be constrained militarily due to lack such a force . It looks like a vice that traps and never let's go.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

http://idrw.org/flying-coffins-an-insul ... ing-fleet/

The chorus is getting louder.

But still with the same stupidity about the delayed LCA.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

Karan M wrote:
Exactly, the commitment to AMCA is also contingent upon there being a desi engine , the basic AMCA is only committed for 2 squadrons (and again, you can bet if it is not up to spec in some fashion, we will see cribs), and the advanced one, when a new engine comes, and *provided* it meets ASQR, then 3-4 squadrons or some such number.
The IAF has sabotaged the AMCA project from day one by specifying the internal weapons bay to be only 1.5 tons.

This is going to seriously limit the aircraft in it's day one knock down the door type operations.

Given the way Indian services have behaved with Indian designed weapons. I am quite confident that IAF will crib about the size of the IWB once the aircraft is approaching service entry.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Karan M »

Its the complete lack of production commitment and a hands off, attitude in terms of tangible orders that bothers me.

KF-X - takes a dual engine design based on the proven Ge-414, avoids full stealth in first iteration, already with the following orders. That's around 6-7 squadrons.
The KF-X aircraft will replace Korea’s F-4D/E Phantom II and F-5E/F Tiger II fleet. The development program is scheduled to be completed in 2026, while flight testing will occur in 2023. A total of 120 KF-X aircrafts are scheduled for production for the Air Force. GE Aviation will provide 240 F414 engines plus spares.
And note:
Six flying prototypes, including two two-seat versions, will conduct 2,200 flights until mass production begins in 2026. 40 Block-1 jets will have an interim capability limited to air-to-air duties, then the following 80 Block-2 jets from 2028 will add air-to-ground engagement.
So limited stealth, no A2G in first variant, yet 40 on order, and to be followed by 80 more. And this is the domestic commitment.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

The IAF is a first class airforce. No compromises in capacity for it.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Luxtor »

I echo all of the members sentiments about the armed forces' brass have been and still living in a world of delusions. The aversion of the air force and navy to LCA, the army with Arjun and generally all indigenous weapon systems. Switching to indigenous weapon systems should have happened in earnest 20 years ago if not earlier. But we're still dilly dallying with MRCA, LCA, while still flying MiG-21 in the year 2022. The current situation in the world is very dangerous for India and these are the times we should have been preparing for from a long time ago. Now that this global crisis has arrived, the military brass is still slumbering, happy in their lack of foresight and frankly in their lack of expertise in the geo and regional strategic factors. The navy just completed ski jump trials of carrier based fighters from two foreign vendors just now and the air force still not acquired capable fighters in large numbers as a serious deterant to the Chinese. The army is another intransigent entity when it comes to being prepared with adequate and indigenous weapons. All this while the world and our own neighbourhood is starting to fall apart fast. By the time these navy and air force jets come into service, the Chinese might have already attacked us and taken large swaths of our territory and we'll be forced to make peace with them and the Pakis on their terms. Have we not learned anything from 1962 and Kargil?
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Neela »

Karan M wrote:
The Nitin Gokale interview with chief is interesting - the headlines read "fully committed to AtmaNirbhar" but then a less than enthusiastic commitments in the contents. Looks like someone has sent a note to the PM soon after and a counter statement is made. Also mentioned before , IAF is being clever by making tall promises on AMCA - an aircraft which is still 10 years away. But They have the Mk1,Mk1A in hand and ready for mass orders - yet they make partial commits.
Exactly, the commitment to AMCA is also contingent upon there being a desi engine , the basic AMCA is only committed for 2 squadrons (and again, you can bet if it is not up to spec in some fashion, we will see cribs), and the advanced one, when a new engine comes, and *provided* it meets ASQR, then 3-4 squadrons or some such number.

MK1A is all but round the corner, and no real commitment beyond 4 squadrons.
Karan-ji,
The spectrum of aircraft is there for IAF to squander.

Not a 1:1 comparison but still, look at the Airbus series
A300 _production_ in 1970
A310
A320 - with FBW soon after A310
Short range (A318/9 ) spinoffs , extended range in A321
A330 twin aisle
A330 military spinoff
A340 twin aisle
A350 twin aisle, after A380 was doomed
A380

Between all the variants - some 12000 aircraft produced - Twelve thousand!!!

More than half a century of vision, planning, commitment, R&D, production, execution, marketing, sales , service - what a job!! And look at how they came up with A350 to mitigate the A380 market collapse . And the quality, reliability of A320 series - no wonder the Chinese analysed it and started work on Comac C919 in 2006. They are ready for production.

And here we are , into the third decade , stalling , wasting time, money, resources, knowledge on what is the best modern take on single engine multi role aircraft. Sad, angry, frustrated really.


----------
BTW, NitinG had a chance to counter to the chief - but I doubt if he would risk coming very strong ....he will lose the priveleges.
Shiv Aroor has the media platform - if any of the known circles can influence him to put a show on the IAF commitments....
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Haridas »

Circa 2002 when Air Cdr Mateshwaran was writing the ASR for 126 MRCA, in 2008 the budgeted value was an astronomical $7 Billion (55,000 Cr). Later after 2 yrs the price tag was IIRC $11 bn, then the price tag kept increasing to 12, 15, 17, 22 Bn.... eventually the price tag rouse to "Unobtainium".

10 -12 yrs ago DM Saint Anthony said money does not grow on trees for MMRCA and One Rank one Pay.

Money only available for essentials like "muslims have first right to national resources", "compulsion of UPA constituents: read corruption:

1. Sell for cheap song to a cabal of middle eastern airlines the national carrier Air India landing rights and forced AIR India to buy 111 Airbus & Boing for 77,000 Cr in 2007 (instead of requisionted 30 planes) this doomed Air India into spiraling losses to bankruptcy.
2.Coal scam
3. 2G/3G scam
4. Augusta,
5. MFN to Chinese import to destroy Indian production industry and GDP growth
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by YashG »

Haridas wrote:Circa 2002 when Air Cdr Mateshwaran was writing the ASR for 126 MRCA, in 2008 the budgeted value was an astronomical $7 Billion (55,000 Cr). Later after 2 yrs the price tag was IIRC $11 bn, then the price tag kept increasing to 12, 15, 17, 22 Bn.... eventually the price tag rouse to "Unobtainium".

10 -12 yrs ago DM Saint Anthony said money does not grow on trees for MMRCA and One Rank one Pay.

Money only available for essentials like "muslims have first right to national resources", "compulsion of UPA constituents: read corruption:

1. Sell for cheap song to a cabal of middle eastern airlines the national carrier Air India landing rights and forced AIR India to buy 111 Airbus & Boing for 77,000 Cr in 2007 (instead of requisionted 30 planes) this doomed Air India into spiraling losses to bankruptcy.
2.Coal scam
3. 2G/3G scam
4. Augusta,
5. MFN to Chinese import to destroy Indian production industry and GDP growth
Saint antony was a good for nothing DM. But I hope you know that Saint Anthony is not the defence minister anymore. Sure you can rant about him, the scams all but I wonder how is that relevant to this thread that is discussing wrong decisions IAF is making today.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ramana »

You can take a horse to water but can't make it drink it.
IAF is the horse and Indian aircraft is the water.
Yes, you can make the horse drink the water by making it thirsty(squadron strength depletions) by taking it on a long walk or delays.
I think recent chiefs are beholden to vested interest and have to stay the course to appease those to whom they are beholden to.

It just doesn't make sense for various chiefs to continue to be adamant and preside over a depleting force.

Recall ACM Raha there is no Plan B to the 126 Rafale!
ACM RBS first speech was about 21 Mig 29s and 12 Su-30MKI.
The file didn't move an inch till even now!
we have LAC hot and yet Rafale, HAMMER wasn't bought.
It was Gen Rawat who had to say please order them.
RBS gets his son's birthday pictures taken in the new Hard Shelters for Rafale. With the roof thickness shown.
In USA any picture taken in such areas leads to dismissal and if it is a civilian to jail.
So what really wrong here?
Is it the middle force syndrome?
Smaller than the Army and bigger than the Navy.
Just like the middle son who wants to be wanton.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ramana »

Again all of them should read the biography of MAF Arjan Singh to understand what made him great.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by nachiket »

This is not an IAF specific malady. Recall the incredible attempt by the Army to buy Israeli artillery guns recently when so many resources have been spent on creating indigenous artillery.

At some point the government needs to realize that the services are not going to get out of its "end user only" mentality where they expect fully developed systems to be delivered to them without having to go through iterative development and receive the units at a fast rate despite piecemeal orders. This can only work with foreign systems where most of the issues have been ironed out during its early development with the help of the local military and the Indian orders can be quickly fulfilled thanks to much larger production runs for the local and other international customers.

The services have been given enough time to change their mindset and understand the importance and necessity of being self sufficient in weapons and equipment and their crucial role in reaching that goal. If the government wants Atmarnirbharta to be more than just a slogan, it needs to start forcing their hand with outright refusal of unreasonable demands like the 114 MRFA and forced orders of indigenous systems wherever they are available. Trouble is, no government wants to take such decisions for fear of getting raked over the coals if something goes wrong and the indigenous systems do not perform to expectations, god forbid during an actual shooting war. So they need to keep up appearances of trying to give the services whatever they ask for with the result being that no actual decisions get made, the services get neither the foreign nor the local systems in decent numbers and everybody (except our adversaries) loses.

The worst part is this fear is absent for foreign systems. They can and have performed poorly in the past and yet no one in the government, MOD or services who was responsible for its induction paid any sort of price for it.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by sankum »

The fourth mig 29 sq is not coming and present 3sq Mig 29 sq will retire 2027 onward on 40 years calender life over.
Jaguar 2sq old will retire 2027 onward while 4 sq upg Jaguar will retire in 2035 onwards.
That is 80 plus fighters in 2 years. Likely to be replaced by Tejas mk2 @24/ year and Tejas mk1a @ 16/ year. For total 40/ year.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by nachiket »

sankum wrote:The fourth mig 29 sq is not coming and present 3sq Mig 29 sq will retire 2027 onward on 40 years calender life over.
I saw that blurb about the early retirement of Mig-29's but it seemed more of a pressure tactic to convince the government that the 114 MRFA's are desperately needed. If the MRFA deal does not happen I fully expect the Mig-29's to keep flying longer. They recently went through a very comprehensive upgrade which included new engines for the whole fleet, radar, extra fuel and SPJ and the 2 engines make it inherently safer than the Mig-21 or 27. Retiring them this early would make no sense when the squadron strength is already at a historic low.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Prem Kumar »

<Posted in wrong thread>
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Kartik »

nachiket wrote:
sankum wrote:The fourth mig 29 sq is not coming and present 3sq Mig 29 sq will retire 2027 onward on 40 years calender life over.
I saw that blurb about the early retirement of Mig-29's but it seemed more of a pressure tactic to convince the government that the 114 MRFA's are desperately needed. If the MRFA deal does not happen I fully expect the Mig-29's to keep flying longer. They recently went through a very comprehensive upgrade which included new engines for the whole fleet, radar, extra fuel and SPJ and the 2 engines make it inherently safer than the Mig-21 or 27. Retiring them this early would make no sense when the squadron strength is already at a historic low.
Question really is - what is the source of the info on the MiG-29UPG squadrons beginning to retire from 2027 onwards? I have so far not seen any interview by the IAF ACM giving this detail, so the question really is who put this information out?
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by LakshmanPST »

Tejas Mk2 taking first flight and achieving atleast IOC will be a real landmark event for Indian Aerospace industry... It will permanently close all the doors for imports of 4++ generation fighters to India...
Import lobby has a very small window (even considering their attempts to delay the Mk2 project)... They're trying every trick in the book to push MRFA within this time...
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by fanne »

I think there is space for MFRA (100-150). That is our big stick. There is also space of 300 LCA mk1/2 (and 150 AMCA after that), that is our bread and butter plane. The sad fact is that MFRA and LCA is not either or scenario (the budget may force us there, but we are growing fast). It is the IAF that is making it one-way street - just MFRA.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Karan M »

Please keep an eye out for the usual suspects on social media, including some erstwhile defence forum types who are trying to push the line to cancel the Tejas Mk2 and "go directly" to AMCA.

As detailed previously, a cost effective AMCA is only possible thanks to the economies of scale a Tejas Mk2 brings.

The aim now by the MRFA contenders is to cancel Tejas Mk2 and by conning us into thinking its easy to jump generations and move directly to AMCA without first maturing a lot of AMCA's intended systems and technology (de-risking) via the Tejas Mk2. The US itself built thousands of F-16s and F-15s, and the F-22, B-2 before thinking of the F-35. But our "well wishers" want us to stop at a mere 123 airframes, import another 150 odd and then "we can make the AMCA", which as detailed above, is going to be far more complex than the Tejas Mk1A.

A lot of the above guys have been bought out, hook, line and sinker by thoughts of being authors for think tanks, lucrative visits abroad and what not. Don't fall for the lure and keep pushing for Tejas.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by bharathp »

a noob pooch - if getting a private player to get ToT is the bestway to have two lines and multiple airframes coming in every year,
why cant that ToT happen from HAL to Tatas/Adanis/BFOrges who-ever and let them create a new manufacturing line?
then the private players can absorb whatever tech they can and build from there?

it will also keep the inhouse R&D and spread it to multiple players inside India
HAL can keep the critical tech of course (As would any foreign OEM in the case of the MRFA)

if there are factions still insisting on the gravy train
the tatas/BForge/Adanis can then pay whatever chai biskoot monies to get selected for the said ToT - atleast the guys getting the rishwat can be within India?
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by LakshmanPST »

naraswami wrote:
I believe IAFs insistence on the MRCAsoup is to ensure a 2nd industrial system integration and product delivery capability* is created in-country... to do for aircraft what involving the BFs/Tatas/L&T for production and detailed development has done for Artillery & movers. Recall that this "screwdriver giri" people talk about there *(the realization and sustainment phases of product delivery) is exactly what HAL has done for decades too to learn and its still HALs weak point - and history has shown that the private sector is far more agile and able to absorb production technology and deliver (just for example look at the complexity of aero structures HAL delivers as part of offsets etc and what TASL does)
From what I understand, MRFA Tender will only get us an assembly line in India... Some parts may be localized to small Private companies (which can be negotiated in a normal deal as well), but fact remains that the main Technical player will only assemble the jets... It is called screwdrivergiri for precisely this reason... The assembly and delivery rate may be faster than what is done by HAL...
Beyond that, I do not see any other contribution to Aerospace industry in India...
Aircraft are too vital to Indias MIC to have ONLY one DPSU bogged down by decades of funk. The numbers and immediacy dictate that the IAF will need both Mk2 and MMRCAs - and both need to be done at speed. If ANYTHING needs sacrificing, I would even vote for the AMCA's platform to be slowed down perhaps (keeping the sub-system and component tracks alive for retrofits into Mk2 and future variants)
We need jets of a certain capability in certain nos.... For this certain capability, Mk2 itself is enough... If we have Nos., we can always ramp up production rate of Tejas Mk2...
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

The real prize in the development of MIC is the ability to design and build a product from scratch. Not have something that is built by some els and assembled in India with screwdrivers.

The most important lesson is the ability to manage the industrial supply chain. Something that the screwdriver assembly of MRFA will never teach us. So why have a second industrial source for this drama?
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by LakshmanPST »

naraswami wrote:
Karan - ji, I believe a deeper read of the KF-21 new might show that its actually a counterpoint to what you are trying to prove. This 40+80 is as much a notional plan as the Mk2 numbers... and if anything the 40+80 Mk1/MK1A plan is actually MORE concrete than the KF-21 (as it should be given a generation worth of maturity difference) but interesting coincidence that the KF-21 "plan" only sees a run of 120 articles until 2032 (after which a new variant takes over presumably).

I thought it was on AWST but for now I can only locate this more generic source that said (in Jan 22): "Currently, the plan is for four single-seat KF-21s and two two-seat prototypes to begin flight testing in 2022, while another two prototypes serve purely for ground-testing. If all goes according to plan, then a production contract will be awarded in 2024 with deliveries beginning two years later."
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/kf- ... big-plans/
Do you have any later sources that say that an actual order has been inked even for the 1st 40 post first proto flight ? I tried to look around but couldn't find any.

So look not even a production contract for the first 40 until proto testing and development work is completed. Seems like a pretty normal SOP to me, right ?
The main 2 differences between KF21 plans and Tejas Mk1/1A plans I see are as follows:-
1) KF21 planned numbers are fixed during prototype stage itself... They have a clear roadmap of how, where and in what role this jet fits in their Air Force... This gives the production house and all Suppliers to plan things ahead...
Tejas Mk1/1A numbers were never fixed during prototype stage... Orders were given on ad hoc basis of 20+20+83...
And those last 83 numbers were literally shoved into their throats by MP...
2) KF21 have a clear roadmap of block upgrades and iterations... 40 with A2A capabilities and next 80 with A2G capabilities added...
Tejas Mk1/1A never really had that roadmap... IAF kept adding new requirements without placing orders... And inspite of being involved in its development and they themselves preparing GSQRs, they made comments like 3 legged cheetah and stuff...
-----
It is true that they haven't placed order yet, but fact is they planned well... In future, if KAF does what IAF did with Tejas Mk1, then it will receive the same criticism...
But as on date, they planned well which was severely lacking on IAF's part...
Also interesting to consider why do KAI's scale & industrialization requirements seemingly satisfy with a planned run for 120 (40+80) but HAL's plan for Mk1 or Mk2 of similar stages or magnitudes is a huge miscarriage of justice perpetrated on them ( I have been away for a while and I don't know where you stand on this so please consider this a honest question not a rhetorical one).
The reason is simple... Numbers required by KAF are way less than the numbers required by IAF...
They have around 20 squadrons in total and have a much smaller area to defend, while we require around 42 squadrons...

Also, KAF has planned orders for 6 squadrons for the 1st iteration... The next iteration which is stealthy will have more numbers... KAF planned these numbers because they do not need more... Further, they already have a partner Indonesia thst may buy more jets...

Coming to IAF, they stopped at 6 squadrons of Mk2 because they want to import gold-plated jets and any commitment to more numbers will dent their plans...
IAF is being criticized not for stopping at 6 squadrons but the (correctly) presumed reason for which they stopped at 6 squadrons...
We need more than 6 squadrons because our requirement is more than 6 squadrons...
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ldev »

LakshmanPST wrote:We need jets of a certain capability in certain nos.... For this certain capability, Mk2 itself is enough... If we have Nos., we can always ramp up production rate of Tejas Mk2...
I think it will be helpful to list these capabilities which the Mk2 will have i.e. propulsion, range, payload, munitions, avionics and then compare them to what the PLAAF will have at that point in time facing India. From what I understand Mk1A production will end in 2030, so Mk2 production will begin sometime after that. The Mk2 will therefore be in service in the >2032-35 timeframe onwards. I think by 2035 the IAF will face an all 5th generation fleet of J-20s and J-35s across the LAC or at least a majority 5th generation fleet and maybe in the form of PLAN carriers in the Indian Ocean as well with 5th generation fighters. At least it will be prudent to plan for such a contingency. Will the Mk2 as presently configured be able to meet that challenge. If not, what improvements will need to be made to it? One should also assume that the PLAAF J-20 will also be refined and improved during this time. It is also entirely possible that in the 2035 time period, that China sells/donates/transfers some J-35s to Pakistan.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

The KAF are good because they have a proven track record of induction of domestically designed system.

Unlike the Indian armed forces where they come up with new requirements with the explicit purpose of delaying induction of a domestic product.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

All this is well and good. I am all for it.

But the argument that MRFA is automatically going to teach our company's how to solve the supply chain management puzzle is something that i reject.

Because whatever supply chain exists for that product is external to India and is already a part of host countries MIC. Very existence of a pre existing supply chain argues against such learning.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by LakshmanPST »

ldev wrote: I think it will be helpful to list these capabilities which the Mk2 will have i.e. propulsion, range, payload, munitions, avionics and then compare them to what the PLAAF will have at that point in time facing India. From what I understand Mk1A production will end in 2030, so Mk2 production will begin sometime after that. The Mk2 will therefore be in service in the >2032-35 timeframe onwards. I think by 2035 the IAF will face an all 5th generation fleet of J-20s and J-35s across the LAC or at least a majority 5th generation fleet and maybe in the form of PLAN carriers in the Indian Ocean as well with 5th generation fighters. At least it will be prudent to plan for such a contingency. Will the Mk2 as presently configured be able to meet that challenge. If not, what improvements will need to be made to it? One should also assume that the PLAAF J-20 will also be refined and improved during this time. It is also entirely possible that in the 2035 time period, that China sells/donates/transfers some J-35s to Pakistan.
I do not know what exactly IAF needs to counter China...
I wrote that statement about equating Tejas Mk2 and MRFA based on how the MMRCA saga progressed over the years...
- It started as procurement process to buy Mirage 2000 equivalent jets
- In MMRCA 1.0, F16 and Gripen were contendors and they're equivalent go Tejas Mk2
- After ordering 36 Rafales, MMRCA 2.0 was announced for 110 Single engine fighters and the contendors were F16 and Gripen E
- Then MMRCA 3.0 is announced, which is MRFA that has literally every 4.5 Gen jet available on planet as a contendor... It once again has F21, Gripen and MIG35 as contendors which are more or less equivalent to Tejas Mk2 capabilities
----
The question that runs in my mind often is, does IAF really know what they want...?
If they want Single Engine Mirage 2000 equivalent jet, Tejas Mk2 is there...
If they want Rafale equivalent or F15 equivalent jet, what is stopping them from clearly defining their requirements...? Why are they even accepting Gripen or F21 as contendors...?
And if their requirement is Rafale equivalent jet, why did they even announce the single engine Tender and wasted couple of years...?

If MRFA follows the same timeline as MMRCA 1.0, the first jet will join the Air Force only around 2030...

I definitely do not know the technicalities of planning force structure... So, can't comment on what is required to counter China and in what numbers...
But all I see is severe inconsistencies in IAF's statements and plans that are announced in the public... As a Mango man, it boggles my mind...
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

naraswami wrote:Its your presumption that its supply chain 'management". When you have a 50% or more offset clause, there are huge possibilities for PEOPLE QUALIFIED, SKILLED AND COMMITTED. Supply chain creation, 2nd sourcing, engineering and system integration, production technology absorption and evolutionary improvements, even reverse engineering and learning know-whys/know-hows... all of the theory that is spouted is best done by a committed work-force, lead by an accountable leadership team, with a culture of engineering and manufacturing excellence.

1) What has the offsets clause done in terms of building a company capable of designing subsystems in India? We have had offsets for the last 10 plus years.

2) just because the people are skilled doesn't mean those skills will be utilised in adding value to a licensed produced equipment. Because by definition a licensed produced equipment cannot be modified by the end user.

3) the argument about technology absorption is relatively valid. But it will forever keep domestic industrial capacity 20 to 30 year's behind leading edge.

4) the only way to be at the leading edge is to have a totally indigenous product. Screwdrivergiri of a foreign product either by HAL or some pvt sector player will never let us reach leading edge.

5) the real solution to the problem of an absence of second source might be to create an industrial consortium of pvt sector player's and off load production of ADA designed product to them. That will bring them at the same level as HAL. Where they go from that position is entirely upto them.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by nits »

If MRFA follows the same timeline as MMRCA 1.0, the first jet will join the Air Force only around 2030...
...
Gurus by what time we have to retire our Su-30MKI's; we have to start thinking long term. Every 15 years you will have line of your aircraft which needs to be retired or upgrade or both... what then ?

if IAF don't support Tejas successors with whole heart; we will end up launching MCRA 2.0 and 3.0.... :evil:
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

Naraswami,

1) even the pvt sector player will not be able to go anywhere with offsets if the users are not open to indigenous products.

2) in case of a licensed manufacturing of an imported product in India. You are only going to at the leading edge as to existed 20 years ago in the host nation.

Within the eco system of the licence manufacturers no incentive exists for improving manufacturing technology of the system. Because the end users are not interested in such a development. Because any such development has the potential of shutting down the line itself.

3) For me the ability to put an indigenous design and putting in production is the end goal. Learning and problem solving in such a process is it's own reward. Something that licence production of millions of imported product by pvt or public sector companies will never give us.

WRT, helicopters i was not in favour of the KA 226 then l. I am not in favour of it now.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

I am sorry for your belief that a basic appreciation is missing in the arguments being presented in front of you.

But WRT you calling BS on a specific point.

Please explain the following. How many such sub components which were substantially redesigned in India had a functionality so different that the production of such sub components resulted in the end product having totally different functionality from the original product.

Note: DARIN dosent count.

I will understand if you don't want to continue.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Karan M »

naraswami wrote:Karan - ji, I believe a deeper read of the KF-21 new might show that its actually a counterpoint to what you are trying to prove. This 40+80 is as much a notional plan as the Mk2 numbers... and if anything the 40+80 Mk1/MK1A plan is actually MORE concrete than the KF-21 (as it should be given a generation worth of maturity difference) but interesting coincidence that the KF-21 "plan" only sees a run of 120 articles until 2032 (after which a new variant takes over presumably).

I thought it was on AWST but for now I can only locate this more generic source that said (in Jan 22): "Currently, the plan is for four single-seat KF-21s and two two-seat prototypes to begin flight testing in 2022, while another two prototypes serve purely for ground-testing. If all goes according to plan, then a production contract will be awarded in 2024 with deliveries beginning two years later."
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/kf- ... big-plans/
Do you have any later sources that say that an actual order has been inked even for the 1st 40 post first proto flight ? I tried to look around but couldn't find any.
I think you missed the point entirely. The SoKo guys plan an 120 production run based on a proven engine. Ergo, its very possible to run the aircraft out. Second, they are willing to accept compromises baked into the plan - again, compare and contrast to the IAFs requirement for a new engine for a possible 80 aircraft run, and all-up stealth or nothing, supercruise performance, as versus the SoKo guys taking 120 for the baseline program itself and adding a mere IWB in the later batch. A country with far better fiscal resources, a much better access to worldwide industry (thanks to being an US ally for eons) is taking a far more conservative route and it's services are on board.
So look not even a production contract for the first 40 until proto testing and development work is completed. Seems like a pretty normal SOP to me, right ?
No, because unlike India, the Koreans have a track record of buying local en masse with their services cooperating as Shri Trump would say, bigly. They have to replace the F-4E and F-5 (over 170 in service per public reports), and have no other airframes planned or MRFA contest in place in the same category either. So its KF-21 or nothing. Unlike the IAF which is running a messy MRFA with aircraft in the same category as the Tejas Mk2 (and even some types, twin seaters e.g. beyond that).

And then they will be adding exports to whit. Which brings me to this point...
Also interesting to consider why do KAI's scale & industrialization requirements seemingly satisfy with a planned run for 120 (40+80) but HAL's plan for Mk1 or Mk2 of similar stages or magnitudes is a huge miscarriage of justice perpetrated on them ( I have been away for a while and I don't know where you stand on this so please consider this a honest question not a rhetorical one).
Because the plan wont stop at a mere 120 airframes. This is the point you are missing - we make for our local requirements and the services are dragged kicking and screaming to these projects (or so it often is), whereas the Koreans run these programs for their services - yes but also for exports. So, the Indonesians are part financiers and the Polish MOD recently announced a mega deal intent to take SoKo tanks, their new howitzers (in the hundreds), the FA-50 and have also expressed an intent to go for the KF-21.

Compare and contrast to the Indian services which don't look at all this at all. The Tejas Mk1A and Tejas Mk2 were literally negotiated out of the setup. The industrial aspects were ignored until HAL pointed out EOQ numbers associated with the Mk1A itself.

Next, there are to be around 270 Flankers in service (planned). How and what, will a mere 120 aircraft replace these? The Flankers will start retiring 2040 onwards. The IAF seems to be trickle feeding AMCAs into its inventory and will again ask for imports thereafter. Is there a HCA planned? The IAF is not even upgrading these aircraft with a local setup as it hasnt released any firm indent for key components. Whatever will appear is thanks to the DRDO developing competence in items like EW. Rest is still up in the air, whereas all we hear is a focus on the MRFA.
And to your point, by who exactly and from where these coordinated campaigns being run... of twitter posts, youtube videos, news "articles" with anonymous source, BRF posts that refer to the other components of this mass hysteria against the existing plans
Several groups who are deeply upset that the Tejas scuppered the immediate need for an "urgent MMRCA" and that the Tejas Mk2 will ring a death knell for the same. The current GOI are serious about atmanirbharta. They have seen what happened during Covid, the Russian Ukraine conflict, Galwan, the Dalip Singh fiasco, how in every case Indian diplomats have had to land up with bagfuls of cash, yet be given the run around for critical spares and assemblies. Yet, some in the services planning seem to think that imports are the way forward and that they will continue to be the answer. The GOI appointed a handpicked CDS to reverse the course. He left us before he could implement several plans, but the intent remains and it's clearly cheesing off a lot of folks who see both their profits as well as their strategic plans impeded. Might also want to check some members of India based "think tanks" who have now taken up positions in "xyz-India business councils" and are sagely advising GOI to not proceed on atmanirbharta as making in India is only going to result in delays, poor products etc etc.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Karan M »

naraswami wrote:#2. Oh wow ! Umm... bull-shit.
You can use a new low-cost manufacturing technique to make the same design and plump up your own margins. A well executed development results in a functionally equivalent part... which will pass your expected end-of-line test/verification. SOP across the world and even in India, and even in HAL. How in the world did you think HAL and other DPSUs executed all those import substitution initiatives until the 90s ??? Must;ve been 100s of crores worth of business and forex savings sending in components into HAL's license production. End users have already paid the up-front investment in TOT so ARE interested in you learning so that you can do spare parts and more in the future.

With this I think we've come to the end of my desire to "debate" this when some fundamental background or appreciation is missing. Thanks and I appreciate your well-moderated engagement even as we disagreed.
First, cut down on the snark and rude replies please. The language is unacceptable.

You need to understand that a lot of the import substitution we once did passed muster only because of less restrictive legal provisos and because our partners let us get away with them, because we were doing so with obsolete gear and not cutting into their margins by re-exporting the parts. Today, try putting your own "functionally" equivalent part in the Rafale, and then see what happens to the OEM warranties. They are all voided. The US wont even let you touch the F-35 unless ALIS says it is A-ok for maintenance. That's the level of intrusive control the more modern platforms come with. What we did with our MiGs, and are attempting with the Flankers, is impossible with new imports, until and unless we negotiate for it (and which no OEM will gladly agree to) and then there is ITAR etc when it comes to messing around with US gear in particular.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Karan M »

naraswami wrote:When HAL A/C Division proves that its not capable of learning and deploying screwdrivergiri at the pace the country needs(just like OFB) its time to give the private sector a chance at the Realization (Building, integration, reverse-engineering, screwdrivergiri) bit.. again independent of Design, R&D or even Sustainment. You mean to tell me our private sector Industrial giants are in-capable of "managing industrial supply chains" and that HAL has got a capability advantage here that is unbeatable ? All they have is more experience paid for by us tax-payers and they have squandered a lot of the opportunities. And boy - are you parroting the OFB line used to keep BF out for over a decade e.g. BF could learn know-why from their own brains and hardware and blueprints they brought out and OFB to this day cannot run a hi-quality gun barrel line
The much vaunted pvt sector industrial gents resisted being brought into the Tejas program because not one of them thought building a fighter without assured production numbers was a risk worth taking. That's the fundamental point you seem to be missing. They want the GOI to commit production numbers. And the GOI is looking towards the IAF which plays fast and loose with domestic orders, as they want "mature" platforms. The crux of this issue is only DPSUs will saddle their income statement and balance sheet with such programs, until and unless the "system", user, MOD, GOI commit to significant numbers upfront.
I suggest you read the HAL Annual Report recently brought out (might even been by you IIRC)...read it. Its 2022 - and HAL is talking about an initiative to "revive ERP". If you have ANY industrial experience or knowledge, or if you're even a DOO - talk to a SAP or ERP consultant. They will tell you that the #1 reason organizations resist ERP is resistance to accountability as it exposes all the "blockages" of work. Do a search for when ERP in HAL was first tried / introduced... that it has taken decades tells you all you need to know. I would bet even the Nirma soap guys have ERP running today (Sorry for the flippancy!) And oh, just for fun, read the Vigilance section too, it talks about issues like having phantom employees on payroll (ala Afghan Army or Office Space).

Sun-shine and competition is what HAL needs - efficiency is what the country deserves
This is not the full answer by any means. Many companies have bespoke packages for different aspects of their accounting, supply chain and manufacturing set-ups. When one moves to an ERP or a single software package, it causes a lot of disruption and is also an expensive, messy affair. Production case studies are replete with examples of how an improper ERP implementation caused a lot of headache.

Simply put, your answer is not the only one. You have assumed malafide intentions on the part of HAL when the reality could be far more prosaic and likely, is. As far as SAP, ERP consultants go, the joke was that they'd walk to a client and say we dont care what your problem is, the answer is ERP. Needless to say, all that didn't end well.

As to HAL requiring competition, that's perfectly fine. Do so with desi programs and products and go about it with a firm upfront commitment.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Karan M »

naraswami wrote:#5. YES!!! THats what's happened with Arty. Did DRDO/MoD ask OFB to make it happen ? So why would you put the Fox in charge and ask HAL to make it happen ? The SP models were meant to incubate such capabilities WITHOUT putting the Design/R&D burden on them - for that we have DRDO, R&D Teams within HAL or others etc.
For artillery, it is OFB that has been tagged by MOD to meet the immediate requirements. Both Dhanush (144) and Sharang (300) are in series production now. While ATAGS is awaiting orders (114 units).

The SP models are stillborn as they offered little in advantage over the existing setup beyond "private sector efficiency". Services opposed them. Plus, the other issue is, simply put, our budgets don't allow us to setup multiple lines at multiple production centers. So far the only ones we've been able to afford are the C-295 assembly at TASL and the K-9s at L&T. Both lines will go idle thereafter and hence there is a proposal for repeat orders for the K-9 and DRDO is trying to add a light tank to the L&T reportoire (based on the K-9 chassis).

That also means they will not make the Tejas or AMCA unless there is a significant, upfront, assured production run. Only then can the numbers be split between the two centers, say HAL and a pvt partner. Current plan is to split orders between L1 (60%) and L2 (40%). This is ok ok for a Pinaka or an ATAGs, but given the cost per line for an aircraft, will it be economically viable for the second partner, doubtful.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ashishvikas »

#CAS was on a two day visit to Bengaluru where he flew the #indigenous platforms, Light Combat Aircraft Mk 1 'Tejas', Light Combat Helicopter & HTT-40, which are being inducted into #IAF as part of its drive towards #AtmaNirbhartaInDefence. https://t.co/H4ZhyOMPPq

The Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Vivek Ram Chaudhari also undertook a sortie on the soon to be inducted into the Indian Air Force, HTT-40, turboprop trainer, at Bengaluru

https://twitter.com/delhidefence/status ... GIq9I9lfBA

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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Neela »

CAS seems to be taking mitigation measures after the media lashing.
Sorties on LCH, LCA trainer and HTT-40 - man, show some subtlety .
This leads to even more distrust!
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