Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

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John
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by John »

Prem Kumar wrote:Nothing stops the IAF from getting into a room with the MoD and HAL

1) State the nature of the emergency
2) Order 4 squadrons of Tejas-Mk1
3) Tell HAL to double their production capacity. Work 3 shifts. Do whatever the hell it takes to deliver 1 Mk1 squadron per year. Mission mode.
.
HAL has no incentive whatsoever to follow thru sure they will demand 10k crores for more lines. Once they get the money you can bet excuses will mount and they will be delivering MK1 well into 2030. Only way to break this is to bring another private player to break the monopoly and HAL to understand that they will lose everything if they miss product deadline by even single AC.
hemant_sai
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by hemant_sai »

Defense production is big puzzle.
Assuming we don't want to export at all or no export orders,
Balancing faster bulk production and idle time later is not easy?

And then it is India where getting new order itself is not easy. Any news on K9-Vajra? What that production unit is doing nowadays?
I have not heard of any export order as well?

Kochi shipyard saying they will loose skilled manpower if there is no order for another AC sooner.
Same was case with HAL - requesting more orders for Sukhoi just to keep the production going.

Imagine both above cases of production completing faster than what they did?
Kartik
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Kartik »

Unfortunately, given the long lead times that apply when it comes to deliveries after an order is placed, even if more Mk1 or Mk1As were ordered, they will not be able to fill in the gaps if the MiG-21 Bisons and their trainers were retired en-masse.

The only feasible situation is to order second hand airframes and try to get them into service as soon as possible. Even there, we don't see much progress. For instance, we've had no news about the the deal for 21 MiG-29s in a while even after Putin visited. IMO, the deal is off, which is possibly why the IAF is now looking at 50 MKIs instead.

UAE must be approached urgently along with Qatar to buy their Mirage-2000s. It is the most feasible and sensible solution now given that no new build fighter will be delivered earlier than 36 months after contract signature. Between them there are almost 70 Mirage-2000s of the latest spec available. Would allow for almost all the Bisons to be retired, while the Tejas fleet builds up concurrently.

Unfortunately, knowing how our defence acquisitions work, nothing will come of it and the Bison will continue on till 2025. And we'll continue to lose 5-6 per year for the remaining 4 years.
nam
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by nam »

Is there any public information on the cause of the various crash? Engine flameout? structural defects? parts failure?

How difficult would it be for HAL to replace some of the regularly failing parts? Create some composite parts?
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Manish_P »

Amateur noob question - will acquisition & operationalisation of the S-400 systems take some pressure of CAP missions? I am aware that pilots need a certain minimum of flying hours in the air to hone their skills & maintain their edge and that the simulator is no substitute for actual flying but can the time on the MiG 21 be reduced to bare minimum & put on the Hawk/Tejas/Sim ?
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Cain Marko »

Kartik wrote:Unfortunately, given the long lead times that apply when it comes to deliveries after an order is placed, even if more Mk1 or Mk1As were ordered, they will not be able to fill in the gaps if the MiG-21 Bisons and their trainers were retired en-masse.

The only feasible situation is to order second hand airframes and try to get them into service as soon as possible. Even there, we don't see much progress. For instance, we've had no news about the the deal for 21 MiG-29s in a while even after Putin visited. IMO, the deal is off, which is possibly why the IAF is now looking at 50 MKIs instead.

UAE must be approached urgently along with Qatar to buy their Mirage-2000s. It is the most feasible and sensible solution now given that no new build fighter will be delivered earlier than 36 months after contract signature. Between them there are almost 70 Mirage-2000s of the latest spec available. Would allow for almost all the Bisons to be retired, while the Tejas fleet builds up concurrently.
This is the only hope. If there is enough clamor or maybe a signature campaign, the politicos will make the stakeholders come together and make it happen.
Karan M
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Karan M »

Our tendency to haggle over every $$ for the best deal is seriously impacting defence preparedness. On the one hand we will spend billions on drones to appease the US over CAATSA, otoh, actual combat capability - fighter squadron accretion, is left directionless.

The IAF *is* the most easily accessible sword arm of choice when it comes to Pakistan and China. What airpower can do is incredible. We are ignoring it to our peril.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Mort Walker »

Karan M wrote:Our tendency to haggle over every $$ for the best deal is seriously impacting defence preparedness. On the one hand we will spend billions on drones to appease the US over CAATSA, otoh, actual combat capability - fighter squadron accretion, is left directionless.

The IAF *is* the most easily accessible sword arm of choice when it comes to Pakistan and China. What airpower can do is incredible. We are ignoring it to our peril.
Agreed. Priority should be given to fighter squadron strength and the impact it has on IAF morale. Other acquisitions seem like foreign government appeasement and kickbacks.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Jay »

Kakarat wrote: All I am saying is that the reason for lack of order beyond 83 is not due to lack of money but intent, so i think its better we stop this if we don't buy this we can buy Tejas. Even I want GOI to order more Tejas but saying buy tejas instead of a SAM or UAV is useless argument
I agree with your point and replacing SAM/UAV with Tejas is not an apples to apples argument. Its frustrating to see lives lost which could have been avoided with better intent.
Karan M
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Karan M »

Mort Walker wrote:Agreed. Priority should be given to fighter squadron strength and the impact it has on IAF morale. Other acquisitions seem like foreign government appeasement and kickbacks.
There is no evidence of any sort that this Govt or the services have undertaken any recent deal for kickbacks. Foreign Govt appeasement is part and parcel of geopolitics and if it is inevitable, i do hope more funds are made available for combat assets like fighters.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

Mort Walker wrote:Agreed. Priority should be given to fighter squadron strength and the impact it has on IAF morale. Other acquisitions seem like foreign government appeasement and kickbacks.
Banned for a month for making allegations that you are unable to prove. Off you go!
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

Roop wrote::roll: Wrong!! Cancelling S-400 and Predator would be the worst, the most reckless and foolish thing that IAF could do. Most of the Mig-21 bashing I am seeing on this thread is nothing but ill-informed whining, as if every deshbhakt on this forum knows more about air-defence and battle-planning than the IAF and various Indian military staff.

You could ground the Mig-21, order ten thousand Tejas and still have nothing to show for it. Those extra Tejas you order would not show up for 3 years at least, and in the mean time (under this scenario) the Mig-21s would be sitting idle on the ground and IAF would be even worse off (squadron strength-wise) than now, and of course would also be without S-400 and Predators. What a brilliant plan!
Thank you for a great post. 108+ to you.
maitya
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by maitya »

X-posting from the forum-feedback page:
<deliberate snip>
But in the larger vein of true-atmanirbharata, are we to throw simple logic out the window?

I see a number of posters talking about immediately retiring all the MiG-21s and replacing them with Tejas, not realizing that any order for additional Tejas will take three years for delivery. If the IAF retires the MiG-21 and the balloon goes up between now and when the entire delivery is completed, what is the IAF expected to fight with? Or is the enemy going to wait till all the Tejas are delivered to the IAF and all pilots have completed their conversion training on the type?

A few posters have consistently argued for cancellation of the Rafale in favour of the Tejas Mk1/Mk1A, stating that the latter is far more superior and capable than the former. I don't even know where to begin with this. I once asked (in retort) would it be wise to replace all the Su-30MKIs with Tejas Mk1/Mk1As? I got no constructive reply.

Atmanirbharata is a wonderful strategy and not that my opinion matters, but it is something I am fully behind. But to blindly follow that and throw all phoren maal out the window, is quite frankly inviting peril. It is however going to take decades to achieve that reality, but we will get there. And with the reality of a 2 front war on our doorstep, the armed forces have to acquire whatever they can afford and get their hands on.

Those acquisitions have to be weighed against a number of geopolitical and military realities that India is facing.
Rakeshji, let's be slightly more mature in our discussions, wrt the logic and counter-logic that we put forward.

It's quite ingenious to subtly change the debate about questioning the lack of support (actually active opposition) to indigenous platforms, to that of utterly strawmanish one of "let's throw away the already-imported platforms" in favor of a future indigenous platforms’ mythical-inductions.

It's a no-brainer that, given the force-structure of IAF, any subtraction is suicidal ... but at the same vein, why is there a burning urge of running in for support of a diabolical logic of importing uber-expensive platforms like Rafale - at the expense of an indigenous LCA Mk1/Mk2 etc.

How would you feel, if I take the same strawmanish route, and ask you to list the advantage of the $2b ICE modifications (and start comparing the LCA dev approved budget vs this foreign-R&D-funding without any IPR ownership of it).
Knowing fully well, that none of us would be privy to the exact nature of the capabilities being obtained via that route (and rightly so, there is something called confidential about strategic weapon-systems, and it needs to remain that way).

Anyway, coming back to the topic:
The issue is this deeply entrenched import-pasandness of the IAF leadershipwhich continues to grow, irrespective of the multiple successful kalluram-produced platforms.

The repeated insinuations by multiple IAF top brass against indigenous platforms and programs, some with their outspoken one-liners, others with their subtility (e.g. not once visiting his own men who slogged for years and decades, alongside the development team, many a times sacrificing their own career opportunities, over the entire developmental phase of 2+ decades), is anything but atmanirbharata mindset.
Actually, it's a true-blue brown-sahib mentality, of having that pugnacious air of superiority alongside of that privileged-feeling swagger, that infests the Lutiyens Dilli and elsewhere.

And, at the same time, it is quite incredulous, when we see those who coin terms like atmanirbharata and then quite quietly encourage these indegenous-platform-opposers by appointing them to leadership positions of orgs of national-importance (e.g. IAF, yes and lest we forget, is there to defend us and our society – Bharat) – all the while they having the singular authority to weed-out these indigenousition-opposers.

So, the question arises – is atmanirbharata a merely a slogan, to be paid lip-service without doing anything about it.
If no, where is that follow up MK1A order (of say 80 more) with a firmed-up vision of replacing all Bison and Jaguar platforms in 5-6 years’ time-frame with them?
This, instead of, allowing the IAF chief to repeatedly and publicly, clamor for imported platforms like additional Rafales/MRFA etc etc, while conveniently side-stepping the even utterance of the Mk2 program.

Anyway, I think time has truly come, to call this one out by saying:
Hey if our country is to be defended by imported platforms why should those who manning them also be not imported.
Imagine how wonderful it would be - TFTA foreign platforms manned by foreign-TFTA-personnel defending Bharat - a true Imported Air Force aka IAF
.
Cheers … and I say, bring it on!!

... and others, who are reading this, and if in agreement - pls remember Bharat is a country of us, the Kallurams, and thus to be defended by Kallurams, with weapons developed by fellow kallurams.
So pls don't be intimated by these silly bans and whatnot - always raise your voice supporting indigenous platforms/products, remembering a fellow-kalluram-patriot's age-old words: "jodi ... tobe ekla cholo re ..."
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by m_saini »

maitya wrote:...And, at the same time, it is quite incredulous, when we see those who coin terms like atmanirbharata and then quite quietly encourage these CDDUs (Closeted Desh Drohi in Uniform) by appointing them to leadership positions of orgs of national-importance (e.g. IAF, yes and lest we forget, is there to defend us and our society – Bharat) – all the while they having the singular authority to weed-out these white collar CDDUs....
Maitya sir, not to butt into the argument but I don't think this is quite correct. The people who coined the term may appear to have the singular authority but they don't. They're answerable to other organs of a democracy such as judiciary and their "suo moto cognizances", the aforementioned lutyens dilli media; and lastly the people in the country who love to block national capitals at the slightest perception of injustice, whether true or not.

For better or worse, we're not in a system like China's and they've got to work with what they have and get things done while fighting with what looks like literally everyone in the GoI structure. So I don't think it's quite right to put the blame on them and question their commitment (by insinuating kickbacks or foreign gov appeasement) when there isn't a single reason to.

But I do agree that yes it's very puzzling and infuriating to see the lust for uber-expensive MFRA (or more Rafales) when precious few pilots continue to sacrifice their lives in the "flying coffins". Especially when further orders for Tejas could've easily avoided all this. The brown-sahib mentality will take a while to get rid of, unless we do Stalin-esqe purges. And I do realize it's easy for me to say "will take a while" when it's not my loved ones who have to fly in the 21s.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Prem Kumar »

^^ Actually the GOI (Modi sarkar) has shown courage/conviction by appointing those it believed were the best men for the job by bypassing the "seniority rule", thus ruffling many feathers. This happened in both the IA and IN chief appointments in the past few years. So, its not like they're bound by unbreakable rules.

If we want to give them the benefit of doubt, they did choose the best man for the job in the case of IAF too. But sorry to say that the incumbent has pretty much rubbed everyone who wants Atmanirbharta the wrong way. His lack of mention of MK2 is downright dangerous for our MIC, because it threatens to destroy the hard work of 1000s of men & women who are no less dedicated to serve this country than he is. It can potentially do the same harm to our MIC that the lack of follow-up on the Maruts did.

We can fig-leaf ourselves by saying that the Mk2 program will outlast the Chief. But we want the MK2 & our MIC to succeed by design and not by accident.

I know that speaking about serving Chiefs is treading on thin ice on this forum & I respect that. But sometimes a spade must be called a spade. As I mentioned above, the people who slogged their entire careers, the test pilots, people like the late Parikkar etc are no less patriots. They & the country deserve better.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by nachiket »

Karan M wrote:Our tendency to haggle over every $$ for the best deal is seriously impacting defence preparedness. On the one hand we will spend billions on drones to appease the US over CAATSA, otoh, actual combat capability - fighter squadron accretion, is left directionless.

The IAF *is* the most easily accessible sword arm of choice when it comes to Pakistan and China. What airpower can do is incredible. We are ignoring it to our peril.
It goes beyond a lack of money and penny pinching. Terrible decision making hurts us even more. What was the point of canceling MMRCA if you were just going to repeat the entire process all over again with essentially the same aircraft in the fray once again? There does not seem to be any long term plan in mind and decisions are always ad-hoc. At least they could have substantially increased the orders for the Tejas Mk1 after the Rafale orders were curtailed to 36. Or taken the decision to order another 2 squadrons of Rafales while making it clear to the IAF that the MRFA wasn't realistically possible given the monetary situation. Simultaneously they could have added maybe another squadron of MKI's to the order book before the line shut down as a compromise.

No such decisions were taken. IAF seems to be stubbornly sticking to its demand for MRFA and the MoD wants to tell them neither yes nor no. Agree with the IAF or don't and come up with your own proposal which is financially feasible, but for god's sake do something and then stick to it.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Dilbu »

What I do not understand is the aversion from IAF to commit in favour of Tejas. It would be understandable if all they want is the cutting edge technology and nothing less than the best money can buy. However it is confusing when they prefer to continue with Bison instead of replacing it with Tejas which is clearly a better platform from any angle. Is it just lust for foreign maal or is there another deep rooted distrust regarding desi stuff? But then they do trust HAL with MKI right?
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by konaseema »

Unless there is an explicit statement from the Air Chief against the Tejas Mk2, there is no need to be bothered about the program. ADA & HAL are proceeding with all the programs, including Mk2. That said, the Air Chief represents the entire IAF and their need is 6 squadrons of a MWF. It is for the current government to decide if they want to go thru the charade again of RFP / Lowest bidder / Commercial Negotiations or just order 114 Rafale's (if they think we can afford) or another tranche of 36 aircrafts. The only option other than Rafale's at this time, that we can procure in numbers is 2 additional squadrons of Tejas Mk1 before 2025. Not sure if IAF will be happy with what Tejas Mk1 offers as Point defense fighter / Interceptor and would like to induct 2 more squadrons of them.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

maitya wrote:Rakeshji, let's be slightly more mature in our discussions, wrt the logic and counter-logic that we put forward.

It's quite ingenious to subtly change the debate about questioning the lack of support (actually active opposition) to indigenous platforms, to that of utterly strawmanish one of "let's throw away the already-imported platforms" in favor of a future indigenous platforms’ mythical-inductions.
This is what is being stated in this thread and not by me.

1) Cancel "already imported" Rafale in favour of more Tejas
2) Cancel "already imported" S-400 in favour of more Tejas

This is the strawmanish logic that is being put forth in this thread. So lets take those statements to its "logical" conclusion. How is the GOI planning to convince the IAF to return the "already imported" S-400 and Rafale in favour of additional Tejas aircraft? I would love to see how JSC Rosoboronexport or Dassault is going to take these platforms back, unless we donate it for free.

I am not the one bringing in the immature arguments and neither am I changing the course of the discussion :)
maitya wrote:It's a no-brainer that, given the force-structure of IAF, any subtraction is suicidal ... but at the same vein, why is there a burning urge of running in for support of a diabolical logic of importing uber-expensive platforms like Rafale - at the expense of an indigenous LCA Mk1/Mk2 etc.
With another type, in the MRFA contest, it will be 114 aircraft. If it is the Rafale it will be 90 aircraft. Either route is expensive and unaffordable, but let us assume the stars align for the IAF and the purchase goes through. These 90 Rafales or 114 MRFA will not address the squadron shortage in the timeframe that is required by the IAF. By the early next decade, the MiG-29UPGs (3 squadrons), the Mirage 2000Is (2.5 squadrons) and the Jaguars (4+ squadrons) will all be retired. These 90 Rafales or 114 MRFA will still be under deliveries at that time and even when completed, will not replace all the 9.5+ squadrons of the MiG-29UPG, Mirage 2000I and Jaguars.

The 13-14 Rambha squadrons + 2 Rafale squadrons + 2 Tejas Mk1 units + 4 Tejas Mk1A units will be the only birds that are left by the early 2030s. That is around 21 - 22 squadrons, which is around 50% of the sanctioned squadron strength of 42 units. Add the 114 MRFA (6+ units) or 90 Rafales (5 units) and the number jumps to around 28 - 30 squadrons. There will still be a gaping shortage of 12 squadrons that will need to be filled. I am not going to bring the AMCA into the mix here, because that is ways off no matter what ADA or HAL says. If only designing fifth generation aircraft were as easy as the Chinese claim with their J-20 and J-31, then I would believe it. But any sane & logical person knows otherwise. So what will fill that gap of 12 units? It will be either additional Tejas Mk1A or the Tejas Mk2.

I am not going to buy the argument (I am not stating you are!) that inducting 4th generation aircraft like the Tejas Mk1A/Mk2 will be pointless in the late 2020s and 2030s, because then why is Saab, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Dassault continuing with the development of the Gripen E, F-15EX, F-18SH, F-16 Block 70/72 and Rafale? Brazil and Sweden are inducting the Gripen E, the USAF plans a significant purchase of around 144 F-15EX, the F-18SH has a secure future with the USN, the Rafale is continuing with the F4 and even F5 variants, the UAE just signed a deal of 80 Rafale F4s with deliveries to start in the late 2020s and will continue well into the 2030s. Taiwan has just upgraded their F-16s to the Block 70/72 standard, Bahrain is getting new build F-16 Block 70/72s, if I am not mistaken. The list goes on and on. All fourth generation aircraft with significant upgrades to keep them relevant.

This reality - shortage of 12 units despite induction of MRFA - is already well known to the IAF. No matter what happens, they will have to induct additional Tejas aircraft if they want to maintain a sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons. There is no two ways about it, despite whatever the current Air Chief (or Air HQ) says or does not say.
maitya wrote:How would you feel, if I take the same strawmanish route, and ask you to list the advantage of the $2b ICE modifications (and start comparing the LCA dev approved budget vs this foreign-R&D-funding without any IPR ownership of it).

Knowing fully well, that none of us would be privy to the exact nature of the capabilities being obtained via that route (and rightly so, there is something called confidential about strategic weapon-systems, and it needs to remain that way).
Since we are under the umbrella of the "strawmanish route" discussion, I feel bad in response to your question. But I will be even more heartbroken, when I see the cost of the Super Sukhoi upgrade which will make the $2b ISE Rafale modifications seem like pocket change.

I am equally heartbroken that after all the MiG-21s, MiG-27s, Jaguars, Hawks and Su-30MKIs that HAL has built since the 70s, there has been zero IPR ownership on any of them. The Adour turbofan was made in India for the Jaguar (under screwdrivergiri model), but yet when it came time to do an engine upgrade, the GOI had to conduct a torturous and lengthy contest which ended up nowhere. That is really quite sad. I am even more heartbroken that after HAL claiming that the AL-31FP is built from the raw material stage in India, that we are unable to make a single viable turbofan (following the example of the blessed Han race and reverse engineer it). That is truly tragic.

But I rest with the hope that the agreements over the MiGs, Jaguars, Hawks and Rambhas fall under the confidentiality understanding about strategic weapon-systems and it needs to remain that way. Mango Abduls like myself have no business questioning such decisions.
maitya wrote:So, the question arises – is atmanirbharata a merely a slogan, to be paid lip-service without doing anything about it.
If no, where is that follow up MK1A order (of say 80 more) with a firmed-up vision of replacing all Bison and Jaguar platforms in 5-6 years’ time-frame with them?
There are only four MiG-21 squadrons left in the IAF (confirmed by Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari) and will be replaced on a one-to-one basis with four Tejas Mk1A units. Deliveries will start in 2024 (as per plan) and will continue over the course of a 5 to 6 year timeframe with an end delivery date of 2029. The Jaguar units (the newer ones with the Darin III upgrade) will retire only in the early 2030s, along with the Mirage 2000I and MiG-29UPG. Two of the oldest Jaguar units will be retired this decade. I believe it is the units at Ambala and Gorakhpur, but will have to confirm.
maitya wrote:This, instead of, allowing the IAF chief to repeatedly and publicly, clamor for imported platforms like additional Rafales/MRFA etc etc, while conveniently side-stepping the even utterance of the Mk2 program.
The Chief is well aware that he is not going to get 114 MRFA. Neither will he get 90 Rafales. But he will continue stating it, because he knows that will likely result in a few additional Rafale units. That is as far as this will go.
maitya wrote:Anyway, I think time has truly come, to call this one out by saying:
Hey if our country is to be defended by imported platforms why should those who manning them also be not imported.
Imagine how wonderful it would be - TFTA foreign platforms manned by foreign-TFTA-personnel defending Bharat - a true Imported Air Force aka IAF
.
Cheers … and I say, bring it on!!
36 Rafales is causing this much heartburn Sirjee? :) Really?

I hope you are aware that Tejas is also imported.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

I know I am going to face a huge backlash for this, but that is okay.

The concern at Air HQ is that if funds are diverted for additional Tejas units at this current juncture...it will take away funds from the MRFA contest. That is a deep worry in the IAF and has nothing to do with the IAF salivating over import maal. The Rafale will be the primary door breaker to push into Tibet. And 36 Rafales is not enough to do that job. If there is anything of concern about China, it is their robust air defence network. Entering the airspace over Tibet is going to be very expensive for the IAF, both in terms of men and material. Breaking down the door is a very dangerous mission to conduct and will result in heart breaking losses, but it will have to be done. Other the Rafale, there is no aircraft in the IAF inventory that can do that role. I am not privy to the Super Sukhoi upgrade, but I doubt she will be able to do that. Perhaps KaranM can confirm because of his vast knowledge.

One thing I am certain, the IAF will lose a number of Rafales in SEAD/DEAD operations. They will accomplish their mission, but these pilots will pay for it with their lives. That is the price of war. To not break down the door, will result in an even greater and unacceptable loss rate. The soon to be raised Integrated Rocket Force will alleviate some of those missions, but not all. The IAF has to take the fight into Tibet and for that Rafale (or an aircraft like it) is very much needed. The Tejas Mk2 will - in the words of Air Marshal Raghunath Nambiar (retd) - will exceed even the Rafale. Rest assured, the Tejas Mk2 will come.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Cain Marko »

Rakesh wrote:The Rafale will be the primary door breaker to push into Tibet. And 36 Rafales is not enough to do that job. If there is anything of concern about China, it is their robust air defence network. Entering the airspace over Tibet is going to be very expensive for the IAF, both in terms of men and material. Breaking down the door is a very dangerous mission to conduct and will result in heart breaking losses, but it will have to be done. Other the Rafale, there is no aircraft in the IAF inventory that can do that role. I am not privy to the Super Sukhoi upgrade, but I doubt she will be able to do that. Perhaps KaranM can confirm because of his vast knowledge.

One thing I am certain, the IAF will lose a number of Rafales in SEAD/DEAD operations.
Admiral Saar, why do you think such attrition will occur? What will the rafale's primary target? And are you expecting the losses due to Chinese GBAD or fighters?

As far as the mki goes, the mki/bmos combo will be the real door buster backed by the rafale and scalp.

As such in the absence of f35 type, Iaf's best hope lies in getting larger quantities of very long ranged stand off munitions and platforms that can carry the same. Rafale and scalp are good, but deploying additional M2Ks with scalp might give mid options say stand off ranges. In any case, I'd be packing bmos on every mki that I can. Maybe that's why they're ordering additional mki. It's a pity the rafale doesn't have a decent long ranged ARM in it's arsenal. Another reason why the mki is a competent (and possibly better} door busting platform... Even without the SS upgrade.

As an aside: An f35 force, even a small one (say 36) could serve as a better door busting platform. Even if the use was restricted. Irrespective of an f35 purchase, I'm sure that we are looking at a silver bullet stealth force in the next 10 years... Maybe su57. But they'll come. The missing 12sqds that you talk about are unlikely to be all Tejas types.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

Cain-ji, I am going to reply to your posts in a set/series of posts....otherwise one post will get quite long.

I am only temporarily locking the thread, so that no one posts while I collate all the info in multiple posts.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

This is the first post or part one of six.

Please read through these articles. And the author of these articles is a retired Indian Army officer. This is his biography that I have copied from the DDR Website ---> Colonel Mandeep Singh (Retd) joined the Indian Army in December 1982 and was commissioned into Air Defence Artillery. He commanded an Air Defence Group during Operation Parakaram and also commanded his Regiment along the Line of Actual Control with China. Besides Regimental service, he has experience in several Staff appointments. He has written extensively on various in-service subjects and contributed to technical journals.

China’s Integrated Air Defence System Part-I
https://delhidefencereview.com/2017/04/ ... em-part-i/
By Colonel Mandeep Singh, 29 April 2017

China’s Integrated Air Defence System Part-II: Technology Trends
https://delhidefencereview.com/2017/05/ ... gy-trends/
By Colonel Mandeep Singh, 13 May 2017

China’s Integrated Air Defence System Part-III: On The Roof Of The World, Tibet
https://delhidefencereview.com/2017/05/ ... rld-tibet/
By Colonel Mandeep Singh, 26 April 2020

People’s Liberation Army Ground Force Air Defences In Tibet: An Analysis
https://delhidefencereview.com/2020/04/ ... -analysis/
By Colonel Mandeep Singh, 26 April 2020

From the above articles, it is well understood that the PLAAF/PLAGF have significant numbers and a variety of SAM platforms such as the HQ-9, the HQ-16, the S-300PMU, the S-400 among others. A number of these platforms are stationed around airfields that dot all along the border in Chinese Occupied Tibet (COT), in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and in mobile units with the PLAGF. These PLAAF airfields can be viewed in the map below. Also read through the article as well

Tracking China's Sudden Airpower Expansion On Its Western Border
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... ern-border
16 June 2021

Image
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

This is the second post or part two of six.

For copyright reasons, I cannot post large portions of the article below. Just posting some relevant snippets. But do read through the link.

Some caveats before you read this post --->

1) China is NOT Libya. The Libyan AD network is nowhere close to where the Chinese capability is.

2) The Rafale is NOT a magic bullet against China. While it provides the IAF significant capability, it will NOT be a cakewalk into Tibet. The magic bullet - perhaps not the right term, but cannot think of anything else now - is a VLO aircraft like the F-35 or AMCA.

3) Therefore, please take the article below in that spirit and with that understanding. What was relatively easy in Libya for French Rafale crews, will NOT be so with Indian Rafale crews against China. The Chinese are a totally different beast and have significantly greater capability.

Rafale Combat Success
http://omnirole-rafale.com/wp-content/u ... x-3-15.pdf
Such was the confidence of the French aircrews in their new mount that all missions were conducted without any support from dedicated electronic warfare and SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defences) assets: thanks to its Spectra state-of-the-art electronic warfare/self-defence suite, the Rafale was able to operate at will in a dangerous environment, against a dense network of deadly surface-to-air missile systems. Even more significant is the fact that the Rafale was able to accurately locate enemy air-defence systems and engage them.
Among the Rafale’s weapons, the Scalp stealth cruise missile was singled out for long-range strike missions against hardened targets very deep inside Libyan territory. Strikes were conducted by a combination of French Navy Rafales and Armée de l’Air Rafales and Mirage 2000Ds. It is understood that the first target for the Scalps was a heavily-defended high-value target deep inside Libya, where a strike with close range weapons would have proved unnecessarily dangerous.
The Rafale’s sensor and armament suite has proved extremely effective and remarkably flexible, explains the Commanding Officer of French Navy Flottille 12F. I will take one example: the Rafale’s weapon system has not been specifically designed for the DEAD role, the Destruction of Enemy Air Defences. With all our sensors - the radar high-resolution mode, the Spectra suite and the Damoclès and Front Sector Optronics systems - we were, however, fully capable of detecting, localising and engaging enemy surface-to-air missile sites and we destroyed SA-3 and SA-6 SAM systems with our AASMs, including some mobile, time sensitive systems. This was a significant achievement. I would like to insist on the fact that Flottille 12F is one of the very few units in the world which can carry out such a large array of missions from a carrier deck, from reconnaissance to nuclear deterrence, from DEAD to anti-ship attacks, from close air support to air-defence.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

This is the third post or part three of six.

Breaking down the door (or flying into Tibet for air strike) is one of the main roles of the Rafale. Please see the article below. But just because the Rafale can conduct a DEAD/SEAD role - with elan - it will not be picture perfect against China. The Chinese are well aware of what the Rafale is capable of and will throw everything at their disposal to stop the Rafale from successfully executing her mission. It is to be expected that in the face of a near-impregnable Chinese door, the IAF will lose Rafales in the process and even worse the pilots. Examining the attrition rates at Exercise Gagan Shakti gives one a moment of pause - it is not pretty. I am posting that as well below this article. Please do read.

‘Rafales will provide India major advantage in Tibet in case of aerial combat’: Ex-IAF Chief Dhanoa
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... Q3nwL.html
02 Aug 2020
In an interview to PTI, Dhanoa said the Rafale, with its fantastic electronic warfare suite and maneuverability, will be able use mountainous terrain in Tibet to its advantage and blind the enemy before India’s strike aircraft penetrate hostile airspace to carry out their missions.

“Rafale has got a fantastic Electronic Warfare (EW) suite (SPECTRA), fantastic weapons and therefore are capable of protecting themselves electronically besides being able to use the terrain to their advantage,” Dhanoa said. “So they (Rafales) can play an important role in doing DEAD (Destruction of Enemy Air Defence) on the Surface-to-Air Missiles that the Chinese have put on Tibet.

“Once you take out those surface to air missiles, then other aircraft like Su-30, Jaguars, even Mig 21s can go out and drop the bombs on the Chinese forces. The strike aircraft carrying bombs can put tonnes and tonnes of bombs on the enemy troops, freely carrying out their mission. But if you do not do DEAD then you will suffer a lot of casualties,” he said. The leading air forces globally carry out Suppression of Enemy Air Defence (SEAD) or DEAD using their top of the line aircraft or weapons before launching any major operation in hostile territories.
IAF Exercise Gagan Shakti 2018 – Simple Attrition Estimates
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news ... estimates/
19 June 2018
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

This is the fourth post or part four of six.

Against India, China's greatest Achilles heel is the actual air component of the PLAAF. However, the Chinese are doing everything in their power to overcome this handicap and they will. I just happened to read the other day that they are increasing the production rate of the J-20 to counter the large number of F-35s that the PLAAF believes they will face in a future conflict.

* Fully expect a larger number of J-20s that the IAF will have to encounter than previously planned.

* I also expect the PLAAF to station a sizeable air fleet in Pakistan to overcome the disadvantage they have in Tibet and in XUAR.

Another fantastic read by Colonel Mandeep Singh. Do read.

A Realistic Assessment Of The People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s Capability Against India
https://delhidefencereview.com/2020/06/ ... nst-india/
By Colonel Mandeep Singh, 28 June 2020
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

This is the fifth post or part five of six.
Cain Marko wrote:Admiral Saar, why do you think such attrition will occur? What will the rafale's primary target? And are you expecting the losses due to Chinese GBAD or fighters?
Answered above in part 3 by none other than Air Chief Marshal Dhanoa Sir :)
Cain Marko wrote:As far as the mki goes, the mki/bmos combo will be the real door buster backed by the rafale and scalp.
Again, Air Chief Marshal Dhanoa Sir has clarified that point.
Cain Marko wrote:As such in the absence of f35 type, Iaf's best hope lies in getting larger quantities of very long ranged stand off munitions and platforms that can carry the same. Rafale and scalp are good, but deploying additional M2Ks with scalp might give mid options say stand off ranges. In any case, I'd be packing bmos on every mki that I can. Maybe that's why they're ordering additional mki. It's a pity the rafale doesn't have a decent long ranged ARM in it's arsenal. Another reason why the mki is a competent (and possibly better} door busting platform... Even without the SS upgrade.
First sanitize the airspace, so that the Rambha and other aircraft can operate in relative ease.
Cain Marko wrote:As an aside: An f35 force, even a small one (say 36) could serve as a better door busting platform. Even if the use was restricted. Irrespective of an f35 purchase, I'm sure that we are looking at a silver bullet stealth force in the next 10 years... Maybe su57. But they'll come. The missing 12sqds that you talk about are unlikely to be all Tejas types.
The ideal door buster is a VLO aircraft like the F-35. But we will not get it. The Russians have some ways to go when it comes to proving their VLO designs. Give the Su-57 another decade of development and perhaps the IAF may take a look at it then.

In the absence of either and war on our doorstep, the Rafale is the next best option. Obviously my first choice would be AMCA, but that is nowhere on the horizon. Right now AMCA is Khayali Pulao.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

This is the sixth post or part six of six. Thread is now unlocked.
Rakesh wrote:The Rafale will be the primary door breaker to push into Tibet. And 36 Rafales is not enough to do that job. If there is anything of concern about China, it is their robust air defence network. Entering the airspace over Tibet is going to be very expensive for the IAF, both in terms of men and material. Breaking down the door is a very dangerous mission to conduct and will result in heart breaking losses, but it will have to be done. Other the Rafale, there is no aircraft in the IAF inventory that can do that role.

One thing I am certain, the IAF will lose a number of Rafales in SEAD/DEAD operations. They will accomplish their mission, but these pilots will pay for it with their lives. That is the price of war. To not break down the door, will result in an even greater and unacceptable loss rate. The soon to be raised Integrated Rocket Force will alleviate some of those missions, but not all. The IAF has to take the fight into Tibet and for that Rafale (or an aircraft like it) is very much needed.
To quote my own post from above in this page - after the series of posts that I have made - it is for these reasons that the IAF wants the 114 MRFA contest to go through. The 114 MRFA contest is only an excuse to get more Rafales. The IAF will take as many Rafales as they can get their hands on, because the attrition rate could be quite high while conducting SEAD/DEAD missions while trying to break down the door to enter Tibet. 36 Rafales - while a good welcome step - will just not be enough against China.

But the budget realities is staring the IAF in the face. There is no money for 114 or even 90 Rafales at one go. What will happen is a batch of 36 + another batch of 36 in the future. So 72 aircraft more or 108 aircraft in total. That will be six squadrons and will bring in some significant firepower for the IAF and more importantly maintain a high tempo of SEAD/DEAD missions during war, even with high attrition.

There is another (not very appealing) option. The IAF will have to turn into a purely defensive role in war against China and not conduct any offensive missions. So protect Indian airspace and don't venture into China at all. Will result in a dramatically lower attrition rate. Adopting this path, will require no further Rafales either other than the 36 acquired. Will the IAF bite that bullet?

The goal of any military platform that India acquires is to make China think. Basically the Chinese need a moment of pause and reflection and ask themselves this very pertinent question ---> I have more capability, I have significantly more resources (financial, human and machines) that I can bring into a theatre of conflict. Defeating India - while doable - could incur significant losses on my side. How much PAIN am I willing to absorb to defeat India?

India's goal is to make that pain as unbearable as possible for the Chinese. India will not be able to match the Chinese missile for missile, plane for plane, tank for tank, ship for ship or soldier for soldier. We just don't have the resources for it and we will go bankrupt if we try that. But make the Chinese feel pain and they will back down. That is the only lesson the Chinese really understand.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by brar_w »

More important (IMO) to the PLAAF's J-20 induction rate (which is a long term consideration) is their annual J-10C induction rate. The cheaper J-10C is their recipe to rid their air-force of very old 3+ generation aircraft. The began deploying the C variant around early 2018 so should have some fairly good operational experience with it over the last 3.5 years. They also had the advantage of producing significant numbers of the less capable versions of it (A/B) so have to assume that they've ironed out initial bugs by now. That and the Y-20U (and Y20s other variants) are the a/c that will add a significant qualitative increase in their capability over the next 5-10 years. J-20, Su-35 etc will be their most capable but also the least available over this period.
Last edited by brar_w on 29 Dec 2021 08:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by konaseema »

I have a different take wrt a potential war with China. I think the government's approach all along has been to improve our deterrence viz a viz China and prevent a war. That doesn't mean it is not arming its forces to fight a war but the government has shown no signs of starting one. So far China has only shown the world that it is a barking dog and not the one that bites. Having said that, I would like Rakesh sir or other senior members to dissect the IAF's needs into two. Up to 2025 and then up to 2030 in terms of equipment (Aircraft, Missiles, AWACS, Re-fueler, Transport, Helicopters (Transport & Combat) & UAV's (UAV & UCAV) for the purposes of deterrence and for a war. If we were to do this exercise, we can make some sense with the purchases made in the last few years and the potential purchases in the next 3-4 years.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Dilbu »

Thank you Rakesh Sir for the detailed posts. Explained the scenario very clearly for mangoes like me.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

Rakesh, an interesting set of posts. But there is a matter that I believe you have ignored along with the authors that you have quoted.

1) The PRC is a largely indigenous force. Because of that, it's ability to build it self is substantially larger than what ever the IAF can acquire from overseas.

2) Qualitatively, the PRC will be quite capable in terms of the capability it can bring to the battlefield once it has built sufficient numbers of J20 Fighters and Y20 multi role tanker transports.

3) Coupled with the large numbers of 4++ generation aircrafts and area denial SAMs. They can prevent the IAF from being able to operate offensively over Tibet theatre of operations.

Given the above, it will be a fate accompli for the IAF that it will have to operate defensively on the eastern front. Given the numbers of 4+ MRFA IAF plans to acquire.

I am seeing 2 distinct pathways available to the IAF for 2030 and beyond.

1) Whip the HAL into shape to produce 150-180 Mk2 per annum from 2026. Till ORCA/ AMCA come online. Once ORCA/ AMCA are on line. Repeat the numbers to be built annually. Till year 2040 -45.

The total number of manned fighter aircraft should stabilise at 3000- 3500.

Gear up the training stream and manpower planning to accomplish this task from the next couple of years.

If it is not possible to reach this figure in the required timeline. Then,

2) Tell the Americans. We will do whatever you want us to do. But we want 400 to 500 F35 aircrafts by 2035. Turn the IAF into 4 aircraft force. Su30 at heavy end, F35 / Rafale at medium weight, Tejas light. Everything else is gone.

Get those aircrafts. Call it a day till 2060- 2065.

You will end with a potentially a 900 strong force by 2035. But the F35 should be able to negate the numerical advantage of PLAF 4++ generation aircrafts and deal with the J20 as an equal.

AMCA comes on stream or not will be irrelevant to the future of the IAF.

Please note that I am not discounting the potential UCAV the IAF will be acquiring.

We need this capacity in addition to the UCAV & LRSAM force that will be available.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by hemant_sai »

@Pratyush ji - we don't need to get into panic mode. Let's think on practical feasible options and lets not get carried away too much.

If offensive capability is limited - it is obvious that forces will plan on more robust defensive approach. Nobody is saying we won't be even able to defend ourselves. In fact, India will never use its offensive capabilities to its full potential or to free Tibet as its own initiative.

Why we need offensive capability then? And how much of it?
1] Deterrence is 1st objective i.e. No war at all,
2] If it fails, then shorten the war and with more certainty to have favorable result of war.
3] Defensive mode - longer duration of war, huge losses (probably for both parties) but still we should be in position to defend successfully.

I have confidence in our armed forces. There is no way we can loose J&K, Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh unless we have any other leadership than current party.
In fact, with change of regime, we stand to loose those territories without fighting any war. So CCP will rather put more efforts for change of regime than fighting war with Indian forces.

Advanced fighter planes are the only means for offensive capability?
Let us have some trust and wait till 2024 on how things are unfolding. At least both political and military leadership have same good intent to make country more stronger. There could be different paths.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by hemant_sai »

Coming back to main question - why MRFA circus at all?
IAF is certain that it needs more Rafale and CDS has already gave its approval but with practical message to have those in staggered manner.

So it is clear that there is no hurdle to get another 36-40 Rafale as G-2-G deal. Then why still this MRFA circus?
So it is obvious that we don't have courage to upset other so-called strategic friends. At least not yet and probably political leadership is also not willing to take any chance as 2024 is approaching.

I just hope, internally IAF and GoI have set some timelines and plan-B. We should not drag this MRFA circus forever just because we don't want to upset those friends.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

Hemant, the point is not about panic. The point is about having a cold headed assessment of the capability PRC is developing. How that capability will transform the PLAF in it's war fighting capacity.

1) Suppose the PLAF has 2500 combat aircraft. Along with 350 tanker transports. it can fly 6000 to 6500 combat sorties / day against India in a sustainable manner. For as long as it needs to operate.

2) Suppose they have 3000 combat aircrafts. Along with 450 tanker transports. They can fly between 7000 to 8000 combat sorties per day.


When PLAF develops this capacity. They will not just be operating purely bombing missions. They will have substantial SEAD capacity as well.

The IAFs combat capacity needed to handle this force will need be substantially different from a PLAF that can only fly 1200 to 1500 combat sorties per day.

Today I doubt that they can operate at even the lower end of the scale. But by 2045-50, the PLAF is going to be at the upper end of the scale.

In that situation the IAF combat capacity needs to grow substantially larger than what it is currently and is projected to be.

1800 to 2500 combat aircraft by 2045 should be a realistic goal for us.

The MOD/ IAF needs to study how to get there.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

hemant_sai wrote:
Snip....


So it is obvious that we don't have courage to upset other so-called strategic friends. At least not yet and probably political leadership is also not willing to take any chance as 2024 is approaching.

Snip....
1) I am not sure that the present Indian government is too bothered about the foreign "friends".

2) If the ASQR for MRFA has not been finalized and the CDR for Mk2 has been completed. Then nothing stops the IAF to say that Mk2 is the MRFA.

Unless the ASQR is drafted is such a manner that leaves only F35 in the race.

Whatever the IAF will ask for, in the MRFA( provided it's not for F35) the Mk2 can easily accommodate it.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by hemant_sai »

Valid concerns @pratyush ji.

But it is equally certain that we are not looking beyond 35 sqdns by 2035 and even if I try to be more optimistic, by 2045 that goal won't be more than 45 sqdns i.e. 900 combat aircrafts max. We may certainly add combat drone force of 300/500 - so it might well reach to 1200-1400 by 2045.

And that's it. We got to find other means :) There is no way we can or should try to match CCP forces.
We need to be smarter than just rely on raw power.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

1) All things being equal, the one with smarts will win.

2) Both sides being equally smart and ruthless. The one that is stronger will win.

3) Both sides being equally strong and smart at the beginning of the war. The one with stronger industry and information protection systems will win.

4) All things being equal. The one with stronger alliance system will win.

I would want India to be at 4th para. But we don't live in a perfect world. I will want India to be take 3 by 2050.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by nam »

In the current scheme of things, either IAF is not in a hurry to increase the numbers or we don't have money to get the shiny toys from France.

Given the situation, it is better to concentrate on 2 aspects: Improve availability rates and invest in weapon & ECM.

Availability:
Cannot do much about Mig21.May be we could look in to replacing some of the parts with modern variant and make it work till 2027?
We are already investing in to bettering rates fro Su30, M2K. Jag should not be a problem either. Don't know about Mig29.

Weapons
Need Astra MK2 & SFDR on a high priority.SaaW and all sort of glide weapons. We can wait for fighter numbers, but these need to be inducted fast. Jets don't break door, BVR, PGM, ARM's do.

ECM
May be IAF doesn't like to talk it about, but this is one area which should have got major attention. AESA based jammers should be rolled out quickly. Lower numbers won't matter, if Chinis cannot shoot down our fighters due to our ECM. As seen when the jokers on the west fired Aim120 for no results..

All of these are doable within the country. No dependency on external factors.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by brar_w »

Pratyush wrote:1) Whip the HAL into shape to produce 150-180 Mk2 per annum from 2026.
The MWF/MK2 is still in design phase. It won't likely be in low rate production till 2030 and high rate production probably well into the 2030s. Reality is that even the MK1A hasn't flown and HAL will likely take most of this decade to fully deliver on that order. We are all supportive of the Tejas but let's be realistic in terms of what HAL can deliver. Heck not even the larger western or Russian OEMs can go from design to producing 150+ examples /yr in the specified timeframe. There is the entire test program to consider.
Pratyush wrote:2) Tell the Americans. We will do whatever you want us to do. But we want 400 to 500 F35 aircrafts by 2035. Turn the IAF into 4 aircraft force. Su30 at heavy end, F35 / Rafale at medium weight, Tejas light. Everything else is gone.
The S-400 deal means that no F-35 will be offered in this timeframe. This is just a reality. Look at Turkey that got expelled from the program.It's a NATO member, was an established F-35 production/development partner, and a nation that allowed US nukes on its soil, strategic missile defense systems (TPY-2 radar), and an air-base on its soil etc etc. All of that changed when they moved closer to a now widely recognized (across political parties in the US) US adversary in Russia and began inducting a major weapon system purchase.The Indo-US relationship is/was not as developed as the US-Turkey relationship which was also within the context of a formal military alliance with each nation obligated to come to the others defense in the Atlantic scenario.

Better to discuss realistic scenarios of maintaining conventional deterrence in the short-medium term before things like AMCA etc are available to develop a qualitative edge in the late 2030s. Training investments, readiness investments, increasing weapon stockpiles bring the best short term ROI. For the medium term, inducting all the Rafales, and getting additional AEW/AWACS would help. Longer still, the MKI upgrade which should be available in the 2030s would help alleviate some pressure from AMCA. Modern weapon systems are complex and there isn't a magic wand that you can wave and acquire a dramatic increase in capacity or quality over a very short period. Even if you had options, absorbing them into the force structure is going to take time. Without effectively doing that the capability is not credible and thus not really a real deterrent.

Militaries generally take a all-of organization approach to new capability. This could be changes to training, or equipment. A great framework to use when looking at what it takes to add new technology or capability is the DOTMLPF approach or something similar used elsewhere. These are the things a real world planner would have to consider when making modernization decisions and a lot of these things cannot be rushed.
Last edited by brar_w on 29 Dec 2021 21:31, edited 5 times in total.
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