Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

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hnair
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by hnair »

Rakesh, you figured out why aliens won’t visit us: they are afraid of being issued requests by IAF top brass. And that too for stuff they don’t have or already crashed into planet Zendar during milder climates.

“No foreign brochure left behind” seem to be MoD motto nowadays. So someone should take glossy pics of Arjun/Tejas/Nag etc using one if those shiny coconut-eyes phones, open a POBox at Singapore/Dufai and make some brochure with those photos+POBox address at local DTP shaap. Then come to Delhi in a suit and make money by selling “THX150 Burjin” or “FTX-90 Tejuski” or “BGM-Goblin”.

Heights will be when SoKo and Turks come to us with their AMCA brochures of shiny stuff hanging off wings by next year. They too will get featured by that kernail-blogger and IAF will be evaluating a first tranche of 36 frames.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by kit »

hnair wrote:.

“No foreign brochure left behind” seem to be MoD motto nowadays. So someone should take glossy pics of Arjun/Tejas/Nag etc using one if those shiny coconut-eyes phones, open a POBox at Singapore/Dufai and make some brochure with those photos+POBox address at local DTP shaap. Then come to Delhi in a suit and make money by selling “THX150 Burjin” or “FTX-90 Tejuski” or “BGM-Goblin”.

Heights will be when SoKo and Turks come to us with their AMCA brochures of shiny stuff hanging off wings by next year. They too will get featured by that kernail-blogger and IAF will be evaluating a first tranche of 36 frames.
Hilarious...and pessimistic too :mrgreen: ..let's see how this turns out
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

hnair saar, you are too funny :D

Along the lines of your "no-brochure-left-behind" principle....the IAF should buy approx one squadron of each MRFA to fill up the 114 numbers. Six squadrons (114 MRFA) and seven contestants (Saab, Dassault, RsK-MiG, Boeing, Sukhoi, Lockheed and Euro Consortium).

When the IAF wants single engine capability, send the F-21 and Gripen E up in the air. When a twin-engine is desired, send the Rafale, MiG-35, Su-35, F-15EX and Typhoon.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by skumar »

hnair wrote:...
“No foreign brochure left behind” seem to be MoD motto nowadays. So someone should take glossy pics of Arjun/Tejas/Nag etc using one if those shiny coconut-eyes phones, open a POBox at Singapore/Dufai and make some brochure with those photos+POBox address at local DTP shaap. Then come to Delhi in a suit and make money by selling “THX150 Burjin” or “FTX-90 Tejuski” or “BGM-Goblin”.
...
:rotfl:
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Anujan »

Rakesh wrote:
Rakesh wrote:What a mishmash of capabilities the IN and IAF could end up with.

Rafale C/B/M with SCALP, F-18SH with Harpoon, Tu-160 with Kinzhal, MH-60R with NSM, S-400, P-8I with Harpoon, Akula, MQ9B, etc...

Full & complete sambhar onlee :lol:
:rotfl:

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... F8b2Ydlptg ---> India is continuing "side discussions" about getting the F-35 stealth fighter, reports top British defence publication.
I heard Japan and Korea are developing jets. We should explore buying 1 squadron each.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by nachiket »

Anujan wrote: I heard Japan and Korea are developing jets. We should explore buying 1 squadron each.
Might as well see if the cheeni will sell a squadron each of the J-20 and the J-31.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by nachiket »

ShauryaT wrote:The primary mission profile of the blackjack will be the strategic mission. The primary route for this is most likely over waters supported by tankers and escorts to maximize success of mission. The risk:return ratio is highly skewed in favor of returns for such a mission and hence poses a credible threat.
How are the escorts supposed to protect the Blackjacks from Chinese sea and land based SAMs? All it would take is for the strike package to fly within range of one Chinese destroyer for the whole mission to go down the pakistan before you even make landfall and have to worry about S-400s. If we really have money to burn lets build more Agnis and K-4's, spend on developing MIRVs ASAP, produce more warheads and more SSBNs. All reward and no risk guaranteed for those.

The only mission for which an aircraft like that makes sense for us is long-range anti-shipping in the IOR like what CM said above. Even there we would need the Russians to integrate modern anti-ship missiles like the Brahmos with the Blackjack's rotary launcher if that is even possible. And we'd need to buy a lot more than 6 to have enough available at any time for these missions.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Anujan »

Rakesh wrote:
https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... F8b2Ydlptg ---> India is continuing "side discussions" about getting the F-35 stealth fighter, reports top British defence publication.
On a serious note. Massa has said that they wont sell F35 to anyone who has S400 so thats that.

Massa had told India to junk the S400, and asked India to buy F35 *and* Patriots. If this report is true, maybe it is chunkian chai-biskoot session to hear out massa's warnings about CAATSA and hear their sales pitch.

If Massa is willing to sell F35, it means that NGAD is coming along well? :P :wink:
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by hnair »

Anujan, don’t!!! Mention NGAD loud enough and Tejas Mk2 specs will change to “having third-stream engine, should come with amazon prime subscription, Ring bomb-door bell and Nest enabled OBOGS”. Because I don’t think our GSQR-kavis writing lyrically about features have any more idea than us about what NGAD is all about.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by kit »

"Side discussion " = biscuit chai sessions. :((
ShauryaT
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ShauryaT »

nachiket wrote:
ShauryaT wrote:The primary mission profile of the blackjack will be the strategic mission. The primary route for this is most likely over waters supported by tankers and escorts to maximize success of mission. The risk:return ratio is highly skewed in favor of returns for such a mission and hence poses a credible threat.
How are the escorts supposed to protect the Blackjacks from Chinese sea and land based SAMs? All it would take is for the strike package to fly within range of one Chinese destroyer for the whole mission to go down the pakistan before you even make landfall and have to worry about S-400s. If we really have money to burn lets build more Agnis and K-4's, spend on developing MIRVs ASAP, produce more warheads and more SSBNs. All reward and no risk guaranteed for those.

The only mission for which an aircraft like that makes sense for us is long-range anti-shipping in the IOR like what CM said above. Even there we would need the Russians to integrate modern anti-ship missiles like the Brahmos with the Blackjack's rotary launcher if that is even possible. And we'd need to buy a lot more than 6 to have enough available at any time for these missions.
Standoff A2G missiles is the answer. The exact missile(s) we do not know yet. Surveillance assets and surveillance radars can help avoid such destroyers based SAM's and the TU-160 can easily avoid getting into cross hairs of destroyer based SAM's using its speed advantage. The escorts have a role to fill, if needed to conduct a SEAD mission but now it gets complex as you get closer to the land mass and risks become higher. The role of the escorts would be primarily to defend against air borne assets of the PLAAF. Deflect them and if needed take a hit in order for the larger strategic mission to succeed.

For the sea mission, it will still need escorts and surveillance assets against a PLAN flotilla and maybe the TU-160 can be used as a high speed bomb truck in such a scenario to saturate CBG defenses.

By the logic some are using here of VLO or nothing, you may have to ground the entire fighter fleet of the IAF, IN air fleet and 99% of PLAAF and the PLAN AF!!!

A Triad is the accepted force structure, cannot wish it away. The TU-160 is the best asset available to India for the strategic purpose today!
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Karan M »

Your proposal is intriguing but mission planning will be a severe challenge. And can we even afford it given we cant even afford MRFA right now.

Add Rafales, and then BGVs/ HGVs, MIRVs to Agni - that's cheaper than 6 white elephants.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

@ShauryaT: Before even considering investing in this purchase, it would be better to invest in an effective SEAD platform. The closest thing the IAF has to that right now is the Rafale F3R(I). First break down the door, create a corridor and then - and ONLY then - think of sending in the White Swan. If you don't have a VLO strategic bomber, this is the route to take IMVHO. That is assuming the IAF plans to use the Tibet route to strike mainland China. It all depends on where the IAF plans to deploy a strategic bomber like the Tu-160.

But breaking down the door - using the Rafale F3R(I) - will result in losses. So the IAF needs to invest in more Rafale squadrons (2 - 4 more would be required) to maintain a high tempo of SEAD/DEAD missions. The Chinese AD network over Tibet is sophisticated enough to cause attrition in the Rafale fleet. There are plans to deploy the Mk1A in the SEAD-lite role, but the Mk2 will be our desi Rafale. But till the Mk2 arrives, it is best to invest the meagre CAPEX in additional Rafale airframes (but not at 114, as that will bankrupt the budget). And while I don't need to state the obvious, I will still say it. Additional Mk1A squadrons and a committed order book of Tejas Mk2s are equally important as well.

There are a host of other investments (tankers, AWACS, weapons stockpile, spares, improving fleet availability) that are required to give the IAF the ability to successfully mount an air campaign against China. And this investment is not cheap, but is very necessary. The services are always jumping at the next best (teeth) capability, while ignoring the foundational blocks (tail) on which that next capability will rely on to survive and succeed. The flavour of the month is a modernized Tu-160 with Air HQ, with Navy HQ it is a 65K ton aircraft carrier with all the bells and whistles. But little to no serious investments are made in the support system. The concept of teeth-to-tail ratio (along with a commitment on Self Reliance) is utterly lost on the services.

Make the investments in these critical areas FIRST and then I will stand right next to you arguing for the Tu-160. Because at that stage, the Tu-160 will have a decent chance of actually surviving in reaching its destination to launch her stand off missiles. We seem to magically find funds for all these phoren platforms, but yet dekho-no-money excuses for the "not-shiny-but-vital" local platform is always given. Where are our priorities????

I would love to visit the la-la land that our Generals, Admirals and Air Marshals live in. It truly must be a wonderful utopia. They constantly complain about China having fielded X, Y and Z capability. But yet their horse blinders conveniently ignore a key fact - their platforms are ALL local. Our flag officers - having stars on their shoulders and stars in their eyes - refuse to invest in local platforms, but want similar or better capability. The hypocrisy is amazing.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ShauryaT »

Karan M wrote:Your proposal is intriguing but mission planning will be a severe challenge. And can we even afford it given we cant even afford MRFA right now.

Add Rafales, and then BGVs/ HGVs, MIRVs to Agni - that's cheaper than 6 white elephants.
If India could afford an entire SSBN and SLBM program (not from IN budget) the costs for these 6 would be a fraction of the IN leg of the triad, relatively speaking. The total available payload to deliver to Beijing from all four SSBN's, could conceivably be carried by 1 or 2 TU-160's. From a cost per unit of payload perspective, this would be quite cheap.

Again, do not think this is from the IAF capital budget.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ShauryaT »

@Rakesh: I have no disagreement on the thrust to invest on the capital side, indigenize to the max. One way to look at these strategic investments is as buyers of time to make these conventional investments. No matter how fast you and me would want this, we know the realities. It will take time and more time than is good for us. Insurance is not a bad strategy. Anyways, I think I have made my points for now. Thanks all.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

ShauryaT wrote:If India could afford an entire SSBN and SLBM program (not from IN budget) the costs for these 6 would be a fraction of the IN leg of the triad, relatively speaking. The total available payload to deliver to Beijing from all four SSBN's, could conceivably be carried by 1 or 2 TU-160's. From a cost per unit of payload perspective, this would be quite cheap.

Again, do not think this is from the IAF capital budget.
KaranM will reply, but I have to point out one key area that you are just not factoring into your equation.

This cost per unit of payload perspective will ONLY hold true, if the Tu-160 can actually reach her destination. The older Tu-160s had no defensive suites, while the modernized variants do. The SSBN is virtually silent and can stay hidden under the water indefinitely (limited only by the food onboard and the life of the reactor). The SSBN has an infinitely greater chance of survivability versus a platform like the Tu-160.

Therefore, from a cost per unit of payload perspective, the SSBN is actually cheaper because she will survive.

And just because this purchase will not come out from the IAF's budget, does not make it affordable. India's money pot is finite. There is only ONE money pot for all of India's ministries to dip into. The Ministry of Animal Husbandry, Dairying And Fisheries requires funding as much as the Ministry of Defence or the Ministry of Minority Affairs or the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment. The money pot is finite.

I keep reading on this forum (and elsewhere on the internet), that by 20XX India will hit $5 trillion economy. What use is that metric if our netas, babus and service personnel refuse to invest in areas that will actually matter? I don't work in the PMO or at Air HQ, so I am unable to see the logic in considering the Tu-160M2 when other areas first require glaring and immediate attention.

Address those issues first, so the Tu-160 can actually live up to her moniker of the White Swan versus having to unceremoniously wear the the title of a White Elephant.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by hnair »

The SSBN/SSGN has unlimited range, can go all the way to Okinawa area which is beyond Chinese control and pop up things that go a further 2000km. Also it can do that, like today.

The issue with Cold War Soviet era assets is that the refurb cos(including high end EW suites and SATCOM that India would want) is phenomenal and the operational cost to keep even basic uptime is even crazier. A bomber of this nature needs to be highly available 24x7 and only 6 of them is scary low. Plus the actual payload being carried also has to be survivable. Unless the deterrent is going to be a Brahmos2 (which doesn’t seem to have a lot of payload capability) launched by a LRB, there is no guarantee of success for an ALCM flying into a heavily defended high value target like Beijing/Shanghai.

The trillion dollar GDP calc is not relevant. India is a country that doesn’t even move the defense budget by a half percent point despite having two bat-crazy neighbors
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by John »

Tu-160s unlike Tu-22m3 cannot be used for AShW missions it cannot carry any Ashm as of this moment and it doesn’t have a capable look down radar to detect ships. And contrary to popular belief having SAT won’t allow 24/7 detection of enemy fleet atleast you can may be able to see few times in a given day (even with all satellite looking down in Black Sea we saw how hard it is to confirm the sinking of Moskava) . You need airborne assets to detect and monitor enemy fleet.

Even if you manage to modify Tu-160 to carry a couple Brahmos and send blindly at enemy fleet few thousand km away (lets assume 3 hrs) there is good chance in 3 hrs it takes to get there enemy ship could be anywhere in 5000 sq km. All it takes single destroyer to be in wrong place and something like Tu-160 flying high will light up hundreds of KMs away, there goes your whole Tu-160 squadron.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Aditya_V »

Any authentic source on this, I don't see any statement from the IAF that it plans to have a bomber aircraft in the future, where is this coming from?
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Pratyush »

From Bharat Karnad and comment from the former ACM Raha in a lecture.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ashthor »

Bharat Karnad and former ACM Raha ke haseen sapne
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Kartik »

Aditya_V wrote:Any official news, all this is looking like kite flying to me.
It is just a rumour, and shouldn't be taken seriously till there is some form of official confirmation.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Kartik »

hnair wrote:The SSBN/SSGN has unlimited range, can go all the way to Okinawa area which is beyond Chinese control and pop up things that go a further 2000km. Also it can do that, like today.

The issue with Cold War Soviet era assets is that the refurb cos(including high end EW suites and SATCOM that India would want) is phenomenal and the operational cost to keep even basic uptime is even crazier. A bomber of this nature needs to be highly available 24x7 and only 6 of them is scary low. Plus the actual payload being carried also has to be survivable. Unless the deterrent is going to be a Brahmos2 (which doesn’t seem to have a lot of payload capability) launched by a LRB, there is no guarantee of success for an ALCM flying into a heavily defended high value target like Beijing/Shanghai.

The trillion dollar GDP calc is not relevant. India is a country that doesn’t even move the defense budget by a half percent point despite having two bat-crazy neighbors
You don't need to refurbish any (still can't believe Bharat Karnad didn't know) since Russians re-started Tu-160M2 production with a brand new Tu-160M having flown with new engines, new avionics and cockpit. If at all there was any truth to this rumour, IAF would definitely be getting new build Tu-160M2s and not any of the older ones that needed to be upgraded.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ks_sachin »

So we want blackjacks as we entertain thoughts of nuking beijing?

A most asinine idea in more ways than one.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by hnair »

Kartik, what Russians say they proofed/tested and what actually works are two different things nowadays. There is no corroboration on whether it was a new build airframe that they claimed flew and their regular avionics sucked so badly that India, who was then not even considered a major EW or RF IP generator, replaced their stuff with our stuff for Su30MKI program. Same story for Brahmos.

Your claim that IAF will be getting new build Tu160 is just that, a claim. Because no one has stated that yet and we have taken partially build stuff happily as quid pro quo for vital design inputs in some other strategic programs (rickety groshkov as hafta for arihant inputs). Plus new build will go well into the 2030s because of their priorities and by then we might have even denser AD environments to penetrate

Have to wait and see if this is one of those quid-pro quo oddities of Indo-Russian relationship or just a trial balloon to goad khan lawmakers to open up something else.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Dilbu »

Definitely looks like a bait for khan.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by ShauryaT »

Source:
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

ShauryaT wrote:Source:
Thank you Shaurya for posting this.

It will give our discussion much greater clarity.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Prasad »

We have progressively MKI-zed all our Russian wares. From T-72s to Mig-29s. A lease of 6-16 entirely Russian Tus will be a massive drain on IAF revenue expenditure.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

I will watch the whole video later, but I fast forwarded to the Q&A session, with Bharat Karnad asking a question. Unrelated to the discussion, but nice to see Sandeep Unnithan sitting behind Bharat Karnad. Actually come to think of it, good that Sandeep is there.

I am providing the transcript below (which starts at 30:45 in the video for reference).
Video Link ---> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl_mndwLfbs&t=1845s

BK: Chief, you talked about the bomber...

ACM AR Sir: Yeah

BK: ...but you elided over the nature, you mean strategic bomber? Do you not? Because the shortest route to that would be leasing the Tu-160 Blackjack I imagine.

This is where the reply from Raha Sir gets interesting (and weird)...

ACM AR Sir: Yes

BK: I mean that is been on since Charlie Brown's...

Charlie Brown is the nickname for Air Chief Marshal Norman Anil Kumar Browne, ACM Raha's immediate predecessor....

ACM AR Sir: For quite some time yes, yes...

BK: Is that still on? Is that what you are saying?

ACM AR Sir: I do not know. That is something I cannot divulge, but this thought process I think is being regenerated.

I am unsure who the next person asking the question is, but he asks a question which we are discussing right now in this thread...

Unknown: What about missiles versus bombers?

ACM AR Sir: Missiles versus bombers....bombers would have lot of self protection. You see, it always offense versus defense. Sometimes the offensive path are riding the wave and sometimes the defensive path. So it is a battle. There are enough means to take care of missiles with EW suites and other countermeasures. It could also have other tactics that could be followed. You don't send one bomber single to attack a target.

Unknown: No, what I am saying is why not have more and more missiles?

ACM AR Sir: Oh...more and more missiles. It is like have more and more artillery and no infantry. You can't do that (laughs). You need to have a balance. Somebody talked about balance. Balance is very important. Unless you have boots on ground, no artillery and no air power would actually help you to finally occupy the land.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

Reading the above transcript, a couple of things are confirmed;

1) Air HQ has been discussing about a strategic bomber since ACM Browne's tenure (31 July 2011 to 31 Dec 2013). He states that the thought process of a strategic bomber is being regenerated. So this likely has to post Galwan, when Air HQ took a stock of what future capability might be required and where to source them from.

2) Since Russia would be the only one that would provide India with such a capability, their platforms were looked at by Air HQ. That would consist of the Tu-95, the Tu-22 and the Tu-160.

3) ACM Raha states that bombers have self protection, but the baseline Tu-160 does not. Only the Tu-160M2 will have such a feature. If the Tu-160M2 is the choice for Air HQ, then a self protection suite will be onboard. How good that suite will be against the Chinese AD horde remains to be seen. If the Tu-160 is not chosen, the next one on the list will be the Tu-22.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

Is Air HQ actually discussing in acquiring a strategic bomber? That is confirmed without a doubt now.

Close that chapter (does India need a strategic bomber or not) and only then we can open the next chapter --> What strategic bombers are out there and which country will provide that platform? Nothing will come from China. Same with the US. That leaves only Russia.

Close that chapter (who will provide India with said platform) and open the next chapter ---> what strategic bombers does Russia have? The Tu-95 is not being built anymore and I doubt the Tu-22 is either. Only the production of the Tu-160 is reportedly restarting, with Russia planning around 50 new build airframes.

Bharat Karnad has stitched his own idea, but how far fetched is that idea really? Unless BK now wants to switch to PAK-DA!!!

If such a deal does go through, it appears that the Indian taxpayer will once again revive the Russian aviation industry :mrgreen:
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

If India is indeed looking at a strategic bomber (in the true sense of the word)* then our options are indeed limited to aircraft of the past and that too from only one country.

*It depends on what India defines what a strategic bomber is -- does Su-30MKI qualify? Does Rafale? Or will a World War II Supermarine Spitfire also fit the bill? I am not trying to be glib, but we are unsure of what Air HQ's definition of a strategic bomber is. One can make educated guesses and eliminate some platforms, because ACM Raha would not have even bothered to mention it otherwise. An educated guess would eliminate all the aircraft currently in the IAF fleet.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

Another key factor is what is the time frame that Air HQ is looking at, in acquiring a strategic bomber.

During the early part of the previous decade (ACM Browne's tenure), perhaps the Tu-160 was seriously being looked at. With BK rubbing shoulders with many two, three and even four star flag officers...that would have surely fallen on his ears. It was BK who said that this was being looked at during ACM Browne's tenure, to which ACM Raha confirmed.

If this is a long term acquisition program, then India getting roped in on the PAK-DA development could occur. But will this end up like the failed PAK-FA venture? Or has India/Air HQ smartened up from that episode?

Long term would mean no Tu-160. At this stage, Air HQ is keeping all her cards in one basket that carries golden eggs ----> the 114 MRFA contest. That is why this talk of the IAF getting the Tu-160 in the immediate future, was a puzzling one. Divert resources to the White Swan and Air HQ can kiss the 114 MRFA acquisition goodbye.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

So the theme of this dialogue is VISION 2035: AEROSPACE CAPABILITY OF INDIAN ARMED FORCES.

The key word being 2035. So it appears to be a long term plan. I guess we can eliminate the Tu-160 entirely from this discussion. So what is left then? Not too hard to guess :)

Tupolev needs money to develop PAK-DA. China is not interested, as they are working on their own program i.e. Xian H-20.

So India is the next bet. The last thing our Air Marshals need is yet another foreign brochure :rotfl:
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Prasad »

naraswami wrote:
Prasad wrote: A lease of 6-16 entirely Russian Tus will be a massive drain on IAF revenue expenditure.

True...but I think this possibility has been prematurely raised.

BUT this is true for ANY new system or aircraft platform. Working out the Realization & Sustainment is (unsexy but essential) work that requires capability development as Design/R&D. And we "only have it" when you've atleast passed Phase 2 and have confidence for Phase 3. So we should appreciate that HAL has a true product success with the ALH, but has not quite come out of the woods with this 2nd phase for LCA delivery.
Couldn't make sense of the rest of it. But this part is true. Then again, leasing a massively expensive system would only make sense if a)it was of so much importance that we have to bite the bullet and eat the cost
b)it is a stepping stone or a stop-gap measure until we have our own platform coming up.

I'm not sure this is either of those things. LCA and Arjun having high maint costs initially makes sense. Not the Blackjacks and Backfires. That money isn't going back into the Indian economy.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

Well from a geopolitical angle, it perhaps makes sense to India's political leadership. India has always balanced both superpowers, especially now during the multipolar alignment era. To India's political leadership, Russia always has been a tried and true friend.

From a technical standpoint, I don't have much faith in the Russian aviation industry. That is my perception though and I am an outsider. With the US, the technical aspect has always been top notch...it is the political unreliability of the US that gives New Delhi the shivers, despite the moniker of Strategic Partner bestowed on India.

India: a strategic partner of the United States that purchases the Russian S-400, Russian nuclear-powered submarines (and now could end up with a Russian strategic bomber). Only in India will this happen, thanks to multipolar alignment.

Tu-160 or PAK-DA or whatever else catches Air HQ's fancy, this is going to be one expensive affair though.

P.S. A Euro MRFA will not pass (financial) muster with the Govt. An American MRFA will not pass muster with Air HQ, for fear of sanctions. And neither the GOI or Air HQ wants a Russian MRFA. This is the impasse with the MRFA. The GOI is waiting for the Tejas Mk2 to have her first flight to decide on further steps. I think it will be another 2 - 4 more Rafale squadrons and then go all in on Tejas Mk2. But this is the wrong thread for this discussion.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

The PMO will give the broad guidelines, but the technical nitty gritty will have to dealt by the respected service HQ (in this case, Air HQ).

PMO is not qualified to have technical discussions on military platforms with any of the three services. It is just not their domain. So the term "Air HQ's fancy" was meant in relation to the specific platform that they are zeroing in on. Whether that is Tu-160, PAK-DA or whatever else.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Rakesh »

Not to be left behind :lol: ....a one-year old article....

Ever watched an Abbas-Mustan movie via Bollywood? This is what this looks like. The plot lines do 180 degree turns.

Five Potential Export Clients for America’s Upcoming B-21 Stealth Bomber: From India to Australia
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/artic ... -australia
01 Aug 2021
India has previously expressed interest in acquiring a bomber primarily for a maritime strike role, and was previously considered a possible client for the Russian Tu-22M medium weight bomber for operations in the Indian Ocean. It also operated the Tu-142, derived from the Tu-95 bomber's airframe, for anti-submarine warfare. The B-21 is likely to be equipped with the same LRASM (Long Range Anti Ship Missile) currently used by the U.S. Air Force’s B-1B Lancer bombers, which combined with the new jet’s stealth features and powerful sensor suite would make it a very capable aircraft in an anti shipping role which could seriously threaten enemy warships across the Indian Ocean. With the U.S. having itself deployed bombers to the region, and looking to cultivate India as a major defence client, a B-21 sale would likely be approved. The aircraft would pose a threat to Chinese naval assets in a region which is key to the East Asian state's supply routes, and also has the potential of providing a deep strike capability to bolster the Indian nuclear deterrent. India’s Navy notably previously purchased American P-8 anti submarine warfare aircraft to patrol the Indian Ocean, while also previously considering the F-18E Super Hornet for its planned supercarrier before it was cancelled, which makes prospects for a small B-21 fleet flying under the Indian Navy far from implausible.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 23 March 2021

Post by Cain Marko »

Rakesh wrote:Another key factor is what is the time frame that Air HQ is looking at, in acquiring a strategic bomber.

During the early part of the previous decade (ACM Browne's tenure), perhaps the Tu-160 was seriously being looked at. With BK rubbing shoulders with many two, three and even four star flag officers...that would have surely fallen on his ears. It was BK who said that this was being looked at during ACM Browne's tenure, to which ACM Raha confirmed.

If this is a long term acquisition program, then India getting roped in on the PAK-DA development could occur. But will this end up like the failed PAK-FA venture? Or has India/Air HQ smartened up from that episode?

Long term would mean no Tu-160. At this stage, Air HQ is keeping all her cards in one basket that carries golden eggs ----> the 114 MRFA contest. That is why this talk of the IAF getting the Tu-160 in the immediate future, was a puzzling one. Divert resources to the White Swan and Air HQ can kiss the 114 MRFA acquisition goodbye.
My guess is strategic requirements are updated based on current and perceived future threat assessments. The possibility of Chinese CBGs crossing into the IOR in numbers, is very, very real. Based out of Djibouti or Gwadar, a couple of CBGs can keep the IN rather preoccupied, especially the newer iterations of said CBGs. Irrespective of the paper tiger nature of their claims, Indian strategists would not want to neglect these eventualities.

The fastest (induction wise) and cheapest way to deal with these is by a strategic bomber fleet. Perhaps SSNs as well - but these will take time, and their response times might not be effective against a far away target.

At this point even an upgraded Tu22 fleet might make sense. A blackjack of course, is the preferred route to take, and this seems as good a time as any - considering Russia's desperate situation. With the ability to reach over 2000 miles within a couple of hours, this increases options dramatically.
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