Russian / Ukranian Combat Tactics

[Cyrano]

US and cronies are just cutting their losses. No point supplying those expendable losers more than what the PR needs.

[ks_sachin]

Or want to maintain equilibrium so that this continues to be a festering sore for Putin.

[Pratyush]

Or want to maintain equilibrium so that this continues to be a festering sore for Putin.

Are the Ukrainians actually interested in such an outcome.

Because over the last few days Ukrainians have been showing a great deal unease with the western attitude. Infact the Ukrainian pravda quoted sources close to zelinsky that BoJo wanted Ukrainians to stop all negotiations with Russia.

[John]

^ Yes days before invasion they were willing to agree to not join NATO (in return for some security guarantees from France), agree to recognize Crimea and eastern separatist areas. This is what Macron discussed in meetings with Putin which is everything Putin supposedly wanted per NYT. But even before the meeting Putin had already given the go ahead for invasion so it was just rouse per US Intel.

[ks_sachin]

Or want to maintain equilibrium so that this continues to be a festering sore for Putin.

Are the Ukrainians actually interested in such an outcome.

Because over the last few days Ukrainians have been showing a great deal unease with the western attitude. Infact the Ukrainian pravda quoted sources close to zelinsky that BoJo wanted Ukrainians to stop all negotiations with Russia.

Well maybe the Ukrainians know something we don’t? They have fought a good engagement thus far.

[Pratyush]

The basic sticking point about Ukrainian willingness to accept Russian demand on the eve of invasion was that the Ukrainians were asking for article 4 and 5 without NATO membership.


Something that was unacceptable to Russia. So invasion happened.

[ks_sachin]

The basic sticking point about Ukrainian willingness to accept Russian demand on the eve of invasion was that the Ukrainians were asking for article 4 and 5 without NATO membership.


Something that was unacceptable to Russia. So invasion happened.

The question is not why it happened but the way fwd.
As you indicated the Ukrainians seem not to want to negotiate.
The West wants to prolong this so more body bags go back to Russia and it’s military capability is diminished.
Russia - well I don’t know what it wants now. Probably to go back to a day before the war started for starters..

[k prasad]

Arguably, a stalemate is actually better for the west, because it keeps Russia bogged down and distracted, while strengthening NATO.

[Baikul]

…
Ukranian soldier who participated gives a rundown below says there could be as much as 1500 Russian casualties…..

https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524 ... iqgCOOaHTA

Who is this guy, Andriy Alexsandr Rambo? He certainly thinks very highly of himself.

I have accomplished a mission which made huge impact on Russian losses…..

….my commander asked on 6th May me as one of the best military engineers to do engineering reconnaissance….

…I think my recon + hints to the river unit made the biggest impact. I outplayed RU mil engineers

However to be fair, the destruction and setback to Russia in this operation seem to be verified by Russian sources themselves, who are calling for the head of the “military genius” who planned this river crossing. For example:

https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/13591

https://t.me/sashakots/32549

And (this one takes it to a tactical evaluation)

https://t.me/vysokygovorit/7886

Edit - Adding another Russian source. There seems to be uniformity of opinion among multiple Russian sources that their assault across the Seversky Donets river crossing seems to have been a significant failure. This is Igor Girkin:

https://t.me/strelkovii/2545

Awkward google translation below:

As an answer to the question: “Was I aware of the terrible loss and senselessness of the pogrom on the Seversky Donets?” - I answer: yes, it was. Even 4 days ago. What I very briefly and without any details reported in the report of May 9: "failure with the crossing of the Seversky Donets south of Kremennoy." I then decided to refuse detailed coverage of the event also for the same reasons for which I did not write about many other “yawning heights of the art of military leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation”, which I know about. However, he did not fully represent the scale of the losses suffered at that time and believed them to be about half or even three times less. Do I now know something in addition to what bloggers have stated? - Yes, I know, including irretrievable losses in people (including senior command staff). But I don't plan to say.

[John]

Who is this guy, Andriy Alexsandr Rambo? He certainly thinks very highly of himself.

Yea all social media posters who are posting from front lines seem to have exaggerated stories atleast he put up a photo of him unlike few others in Ukraine who are annonymous but seem to be posting in US time zone. But his overall details of that op seems to match and so far no one has called him out.

It is interesting this has incident along with Kharkiv retreat and snake island has set off firestorm in Russian social media lot of criticism now of Russian operations not sure if this set up to put the blame on Shoigu and Gerasimov (who has been reported wounded by Ukranians but US Intel thinks he narrowly missed the strike and has been missing since that report).

Amazing photo from Sat what looks Russian landing ship dodging a missile from TB2 just wow

https://twitter.com/covertshores/status ... A-Zwx5hj1A

[bala]

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, stated that 155 mm artillery caliber type M777 howitzers, US supplied, is in action. The M777 has a digital fire control system similar to fire control systems in self-propelled guns. It can fire conventional missiles up to 24.7 km. The M777 howitzer can fire high-precision M982 Excalibur projectiles with a maximum firing range of up to 40 km. On April 13, 18 155 mm artillery calibre howitzers and 40,000 artillery rounds were handed to Ukraine. On 21 April, in a new package of armed assistance, the US government added 72 additional howitzers, 144,000 artillery rounds and 72 tactical vehicles to tow the howitzers. On 4 May, the Pentagon said on condition of anonymity that 81 of the 90 M777 howitzers had already been delivered to Ukraine. On 9 May, it became clear that almost all the 155 mm M777 howitzers were given. About one and a half thousand Ukrainian servicemen have passed and are undergoing training on the management of Western weapons that are supplied to Ukraine.

The transport connection between Sievierodonetsk and Rubizhne no longer exists and Russians have destroyed the bridge to Sievierodonetsk, said the Head of Luhansk Oblast Military Administration, Serhii Haidai.

[NRao]

Ukrainian lawmaker says situation on battlefield is "far worse" than it was at the start of war

A Ukrainian lawmaker called on the United States to provide air defense systems and fighter jets to Ukraine, saying that the situation on the battlefield is "far worse" than it was at the beginning of the war.

“It is hell” on the frontlines right now, Oleksandra Ustinova told reporters at a German Marshall Fund roundtable in Washington Friday. “We keep losing many more men now than it was at the beginning of the war.”

Daria Kaleniuk, a leading Ukrainian civil society activist, explained “we can't win this war with Soviet equipment because A. Russia has much more Soviet equipment, B. we don't have anywhere to get ammunition for this, and C. Russia simply has more people and more troops."

Ustinova said Ukraine no longer seeks the Soviet-era MiG fighter jets because “the war has changed.”

Instead, she said Ukraine needs the Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), Paladin self-propelled howitzers, and fighter jets like the F-16s in order to effectively counter Russia, and called on the US to begin training Ukrainian pilots to use such jets.

Kaleniuk, who said she recently met with Ukrainian defense officials in Kyiv, noted that Ukraine has “combat-experienced pilots, who are willing and ready to go now for trainings. They were willing to go yesterday for trainings. But there is no decision to accept them and to provide that because there is no decision to provide fighter jets.”

The US has begun to send heavy weaponry to Ukraine, but has yet to give them MLRS or fighter jets.

Ustinova and Kaleniuk, who were in Washington this week for meetings, said that they believe there is a lack of “political will that is needed” for the administration to decide to send such kinds of heavy weaponry – and quickly — and the feeling that there is still fear about provoking Moscow.

They decried the fact that it took so long for the US to decide to send the heavy weaponry it is sending now, with Ustinova saying, “if we had Howitzers two months ago, Mariupol would not happen because they wouldn't be able to surround like they did, to surround the city and literally destroy it.”

“For us time means lives, thousands of lives. We've been hearing that it has been unprecedented how fast everything is moving and how fast the decisions are taking. But there has never been a war since World War Two like that. And unfortunately, we keep asking here to take the decisions faster,” she said

[Cyrano]

The Nazi pigs are squealing... Tells us more about where this war is going than all the MSM.

[NRao]

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Short and sweet

Proxy warrior makes the call.

Well wonder how many pounds of flesh, bones, and blood is on the table. War reparations? Rolling back the sanctions? Regime changes across EU? If not dissolving NATO, rolling back to 1990/91 lines?

Got to expect demilitarization nd de-Nazification of UKR.

WashPost reporting too:

Lloyd Austin calls for Russia-Ukriane cease-fire in talk with Sergei Shoigu

By Reuters
May 13, 2022 12:42pm

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called for an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine when he spoke by telephone to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, on Friday, the Pentagon said.

It was the first time since the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine that the two men had spoken. Austin stressed the importance of maintaining lines of communication, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in a statement.

The United States and Russia have established a hotline since the invasion — which Moscow calls a “special military operation” — to prevent miscalculation and escalation in the region.

The “deconfliction” hotline is an open phone line based at the European Command’s headquarters and falls under Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, who leads all US forces on the continent.

[ks_sachin]

The Nazi pigs are squealing... Tells us more about where this war is going than all the MSM.

They can squeal all they like. The minute Russia invaded then the reins were completely in Washington.

[John]

With Kharkiv cleared up looks like Battle of Izyum has begun, NASA Firms data confirms this.

https://twitter.com/mapsasdataproxy/sta ... x_6Hj00GtA

More units lost from failed river crossing looks like they were scuttled by retreating Russians to avoid capture.

https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... x_6Hj00GtA

[NRao]

The reins have always been in Washington since 1990/91. Would like to pen a short - bullet point - history, with proper URL links, but this surrender by Austin Lloyd has deflated my interest

However, there are a few ill advised developments: there is a segment of the MAGA crowd that are trying to be more Neocons than the Neocons, to counter that (I think) is a segment in the Democratic party that has gone Ultra MAGA (aka MAGA-MAGA), and not to lose any momentum we also have some in the US Congress urging Biden to visit Taiwan (supposedly)

To digress a bit:
* the Neocons have thought of a color revolution in India, but were forced to think of an alternative because of Modi's popularity which is only increasing. This "alternative" is still being hatched - not going anywhere. IF Russia prevails in Ukraine, then the likelihood only reduces - postponed, never gets to zero
* "supply chain" as we know it is more than likely to be replaced by a move to produce everything locally - FTAs will no longer carry the same weight as they did in the past. This impacts India (and a few other nations) in many ways

Sorry for that rantish post

[niran]

i show 2 M777 destroyed 4 captured (they were found abandoned)

[John]

i show 2 M777 destroyed 4 captured (they were found abandoned)

Are you referring to telegram post? I believe it is a fake with cropped images taken from Ukrainian article.

[brar_w]

Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Defeated In Months-Long Battle For Kharkiv

[ManuJ]

Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Defeated In Months-Long Battle For Kharkiv

All part of the larger Russian strategy.
Russia never intended to take over Kharkiv, just like it never meant to overrun Kiev or overthrow the government.

Even Finland and Sweden joining NATO is something Russia anticipated beforehand and actually wanted to happen, since it will draw NATO closer to Russia and make it that much easier for Russia to defeat them in one crushing blow.

Similarly, attempting a river crossing in the same place thrice and losing hundreds of men and many dozens of armored vehicles in that process was a well-thought-out feint, meant to lull Ukrainians into a false sense of security.

[habal]

If Ukraine Is Winning Why Is The U.S. Requesting A Ceasefire?

The Ukraine is losing up to 15,000 men per month to the war. The total Ukrainian casualties, dead and wounded, are likely already at 50,000. The weapons the U.S. and others provide, are not sufficient to sustain the war. The Ukraine has only 3 days reserves of diesel and gasoline left. The main parts of its forces are immobile and are getting surrounded by Russian forces. Their situation is hopeless.

The Pentagon of course knows this all and that is why Austin initiated the call and asked for a ceasefire.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/i ... efire.html

[vimal]

^^ This reminds me of how US always intervenes for ceasefire when its munna gets kicked in the nuts.

[John]

If Ukraine Is Winning Why Is The U.S. Requesting A Ceasefire?

The Ukraine is losing up to 15,000 men per month to the war. The total Ukrainian casualties, dead and wounded, are likely already at 50,000. The weapons the U.S. and others provide, are not sufficient to sustain the war. The Ukraine has only 3 days reserves of diesel and gasoline left. The main parts of its forces are immobile and are getting surrounded by Russian forces. Their situation is hopeless.

The Pentagon of course knows this all and that is why Austin initiated the call and asked for a ceasefire.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/i ... efire.html

High highly doubt moonofalanama is a valid source, if they are on back pedal with running out of gas they wouldn’t have pushed back Russian force from Kharkiv and launching full scale counter attack in Izyum. As for bridge attack In Russian sides many have admitted including Igor these are all Russians vehicles and to not disrespect them by claim they are Ukrainian I doubt some right wing blogger in US knows more than Russians and Separatists.

[habal]

^^ This reminds me of how US always intervenes for ceasefire when its munna gets kicked in the nuts.

Kargil & Kunduz come to mind.

[John]

Latest ISW update this will more or less determine the course of the conflict in the east, if Ukraine can break thru and threaten the supply lines to Izyum could push the Russian forces to retreat in the east from Izyum in order to prevent 20 BTGs from getting trapped (similar to what we saw in Kharkiv).

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/statu ... GOcAGVUWYQ

#Kharkiv Update:
#Russian forces will likely focus on defending their ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to #Izyum that pass through #Vovchansk, roughly 60 km northeast of Kharkiv City.

[Baikul]

….

More units lost from failed river crossing looks like they were scuttled by retreating Russians to avoid capture.

https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... x_6Hj00GtA

Given that river crossings - crossing a body of water even - are a staple of military tactics from times immemorial, with plenty of literature floating around, this one (or these ones, since there are supposed to be 3 attempts at the same point) I feel will be studied in some detail.

….
All part of the larger Russian strategy.
….

Ouch

[ManuJ]

If Ukraine Is Winning Why Is The U.S. Requesting A Ceasefire?
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/if-ukraine-is-winning-why-is-the-us-requesting-a-ceasefire.html

Moon of Alabama?!
On the internet, one can find any number of blogs and media outlets to confirm and validate one's biases.

[ks_sachin]

Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Defeated In Months-Long Battle For Kharkiv

All part of the larger Russian strategy.
Russia never intended to take over Kharkiv, just like it never meant to overrun Kiev or overthrow the government.

Even Finland and Sweden joining NATO is something Russia anticipated beforehand and actually wanted to happen, since it will draw NATO closer to Russia and make it that much easier for Russia to defeat them in one crushing blow.

Similarly, attempting a river crossing in the same place thrice and losing hundreds of men and many dozens of armored vehicles in that process was a well-thought-out feint, meant to lull Ukrainians into a false sense of security.

You sir are a master of sarcasm and wit to rival Sir Humphry Appleby.

[Cyrano]

Funny that AFU only wins battles without a real fight like Kiev, now Kharhov.

[Cyrano]

Just because the other side is pulling more idiotic tidbit countries into the Russophobic orgy doesn't change the fundamental reasons for this conflict nor the inevitable outcome of this war. Destruction of Ukraine, decline of Europe and increasingly likely break up of EU.

[Cyrano]

Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Defeated In Months-Long Battle For Kharkiv

If that hog wash of an article is being quoted as a reference... Sigh!

[Deans]

On the river crossing -
While river crossings have always been a part of warfare, crossing a river under enemy fire, is difficult at the best of times. If the failed Russian crossing is all the Ukrainian (and by extension, Western) media has been talking about for the last 3 days, then Ukraine has a serious problem.
Russian media showed a clip of a Ukrainian forces failing at a river crossing, on the Kharkiv front, yesterday.
In both cases it was the equivalent of a Battalion that failed to cross the river, losing at best a company worth of vehicles. That is a tactical setback, not a military defeat.

Kharkiv is not very relevant in the larger scheme of things. Russia is not trying to capture the city, nor can Ukraine capture Russian territory across the border. As long as the Russians fix in place the Ukrainian forces around Kharkov, those forces cannot intervene in the more important battle for the Donbass. In the South, the Russians have stopped at the borders of Kherson province and consolidating there. There's no move to advance towards Mykolyiv or Krivoi Rog.

Strategically, at the start of the war, Rebel forces occupied half of 2 districts ( Donetsk and Luhansk) and Russia was prepared to concede Ukrainian sovereignty over them under Minsk-2. The most likely outcome after the current Donbass battle is that Russia will fully occupy 3 districts - Donetsk. Luhansk and Kherson and partly occupy Zaporozhye and Kharkiv.

[ks_sachin]

Funny that AFU only wins battles without a real fight like Kiev, now Kharhov.

True.
But then why fight when the Russians seems to be their own worst enemies.

[ks_sachin]

Deans,

Here is a question that nags me and perhaps you could answer.

Afterall this violent agitation of and the subsequent fallout operational as well as strategic/geopolitical consequences do people you speak to still believe that this was a well thought out Special Military Op and that Russia emerges net - neutral or even slightly ahead of the 8 ball?

[John]

Funny that AFU only wins battles without a real fight like Kiev, now Kharhov.

True.
But then why fight when the Russians seems to be their own worst enemies.

That’s basically the Ukrainian strategy wait till Russia to exhaust its forces with its offensive manuveurs and deplete it’s supplies and then launch the counter attack. I basically said more than a month ago you will see Ukrainians launching counter attacks around Mid May if Kyiv was any indication and it happened a few days earlier than my prediction

This help minimizes it’s casualties, when you don’t have air superiority and capable SHORAD systems that works. Otherwise it doesn’t take much than sortie of RusAF to level your forces. We all seen what happen when you try to launch offensive ops without air support see Saddam failed incursion into Saudi Arabia.

Other thing to note is while UkrAr might have capable soldiers prior to this conflict it didn’t field a very capable Army that had equipment, logistics and training to launch offensive operations it was primarily designed to defend the East. This was no Top 30 military by any means they now attempting transform themselves in middle of a war easier said than done.

[Cyrano]

That’s basically the Ukrainian strategy wait till Russia to exhaust its forces with its offensive manuveurs and deplete it’s supplies and then launch the counter attack

Quite some strategy while their buddies are getting starved and decimated in Donbass. And with what objective if one may ask? Moscow?

[Deans]

Deans,

Here is a question that nags me and perhaps you could answer.

Afterall this violent agitation of and the subsequent fallout operational as well as strategic/geopolitical consequences do people you speak to still believe that this was a well thought out Special Military Op and that Russia emerges net - neutral or even slightly ahead of the 8 ball?

Russians won't explicitly say so, but my sense is they know its a colossal eff up, by the political and military leadership.
Its the same people who said (and I agree) that Crimea 2014 was a masterstroke by Putin.
I think they will still rally around the armed forces and leadership, if they are convinced this is a war against NATO, which they would rather fight
in the Ukraine, than on Russian soil.

[ks_sachin]

That’s basically the Ukrainian strategy wait till Russia to exhaust its forces with its offensive manuveurs and deplete it’s supplies and then launch the counter attack

Quite some strategy while their buddies are getting starved and decimated in Donbass. And with what objective if one may ask? Moscow?

Given their relative strength to the Russians strength what combat tactic would they pursue?
Considering the structure of the Russian BTGs and relative inability to exploit or hold ground due to inadequate infantry that seems sound I would think.

[habal]

First footage of ukr bodies washed up in Snake Island. Ukr casualties are immense, it seems as if every western country except France & Germany is immune to Ukrainian concerns. Rest seem to be echoing same US pr.

https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1 ... 4xT4y3Z_3w