Russian / Ukranian Combat Tactics

[brar_w]

Based on the latest videos emerging, newly received western artillery seems to be inflicting heavy damage on the Russians. Probably because of its increased range and due to the Ukrainians' counter-offensive around Kharkhiv and Izium bringing them closer.

I haven't seen the LW155 or other western (not former FSU) systems showing up on the frontline just yet. The few videos that we've seen show Ukr army training with it, probably in western Ukr or Germany. though over the last couple of days we've seen videos and images of Ukrainians towing these (there's a very recent one claimed to be around Odessa) so we're probably a week or so away from these arriving on the frontline in scale.

[Tanaji]

The entire ISR component for the Ukranians is being outsourced to NATO, which has historically been much more advanced than what Russia can put out. Couple this with on ground Nato advisers and weaponry, it is no wonder that so many Russian generals have been taken out and high value assets like Moskva sunk.

Will this allow Ukraine to retake Crimea or Donbass? No.

[brar_w]

There are no NATO or US drones flying over Ukraine that we know of (whatever intel and targeting is being provided by US and NATO is entirely being generated from within NATO, international borders or via space). While there is significant intel sharing going on, and is actually even acknowledged (regarding ID Moskva and also specific intel on Russian high command movement around the battlefield) it is a stretch to suggest that the entire ISR component is being provided by NATO. There is clear evidence over the last 70-days of Ukrainian ISR capability doing surveillance, coordinating strike, and BDA . We got a glimpse of that in the video released from the Snake Island operation just 48 hours or so back. Quite remarkable that they are still able to generate those sorties and Russian AF hasn't neutralized TB-2 operations (or Ukrainian fast jet ops for that matter) into the third month of this conflict.

[Tanaji]

Given the primitive state of Russian battlefield communications, their training and operational security, I suspect whatever ISR is being done from space and Nato borders is significantly valuable to provide accurate targeting. Plus there are very likely Nato special forces operators inside Ukraine that are doing reconn or advising Ukrainians.

If one goes by reports alone, TB-2 would appear to be some sort of a super drone straight out of terminator and matrix movies, that relentlessly hunts down targets. It’s hardly that.

I am not for a moment suggesting Nato is doing the targeting or pulling the trigger. But significant amounts of ISR data of high value targets is coming from Nato and this cannot be denied.

[brar_w]

Probably significant in some cases (like electronic intel, access to satellite and CID) but obviously not entirely coming from NATO. TB-2 is obviously not a super duper wonder weapon but here we are in terms of this conflict being in its 3rd month, and the drone is still able to coordinate strikes, do BDA, and take part in AD suppression in offensive operations so there's also that to factor. Not sure how much is that a combo of the capability of the platform and tactics employed by the Ukrainians, or due to the performance of the Russian system and air-defenders..Given the TB-2 isn't runway independent, it shouldn't be very hard for Russian airpower to monitor those air-bases, have AWACS coverage and CAPs along with strikes to go after the control stations.

[ldev]

Will this allow Ukraine to retake Crimea or Donbass? No.

The stated objective of the war from NATO's perspective has changed from the "defense of Ukraine" to "weakening Russia" (see my post in the Strat Forum). The objective of weakening Russia is best served if the war is prolonged as long as possible and grinds into a stalemate, recouping territory lost by Ukraine becomes secondary with such an objective.

[ks_sachin]

Deleted

[John]

Given the primitive state of Russian battlefield communications, their training and operational security, I suspect whatever ISR is being done from space and Nato borders is significantly valuable to provide accurate targeting. Plus there are very likely Nato special forces operators inside Ukraine that are doing reconn or advising Ukrainians.

If one goes by reports alone, TB-2 would appear to be some sort of a super drone straight out of terminator and matrix movies, that relentlessly hunts down targets. It’s hardly that.

I am not for a moment suggesting Nato is doing the targeting or pulling the trigger. But significant amounts of ISR data of high value targets is coming from Nato and this cannot be denied.

Latest gen Russian SAM failure against TB2 and other aerial targets is well documented. For example Panstir on paper appears to be excellent system but has repeatedly failed. In demonstration to Syrians it failed to shoot down target drones till the Russian rigged another test in its favor (likely feed the location before hand) subsequently passed and no suprise it has failure numerous times against TB2, Israel drones and F-16s.

We typically blame it on poor training of Syrians but Russian experience should prove otherwise part of problem is system is overly complicated forcing the operator to switch between missile and guns (no automation) and tries to pack too many things into single platform as it result has a sub par radar (which is venerable to jamming ).

Russia make great rockets but electronics and software are sub par while that may be fine during Cold War when you can make it up with sheer #s you cannot do the same as post Cold War the prices are almost equivalent to western systems. And especially when dealing low RCS targets you simply cannot make more systems to make up for sub par detection capabilities.

So I am not surprised by poor performance in Syria, Armenia and Ukraine against TB2 by Russian air defense.

[ks_sachin]

Deleted

[bala]

..

Defanging the erstwhile Soviet Union and after the collapse, Russia has been part and parcel of the western agenda from time immemorial. This is a great power rivalry with Russia thinking it's a great power. Much like the Soviet Union, it has been hollow because of the endemic corruption.NATO actually plays a secondary role in the American liberal democracy agenda and strategic interests. If Russia is neutered and the European theatre becomes benign then America can turn its undivided attention to the Chinese.

Perhaps this is another reason
link
How good are the Russians at the electronic guts of their weapon systems?

Is this all part of combat tactics?

[ks_sachin]

..

Defanging the erstwhile Soviet Union and after the collapse, Russia has been part and parcel of the western agenda from time immemorial. This is a great power rivalry with Russia thinking it's a great power. Much like the Soviet Union, it has been hollow because of the endemic corruption.NATO actually plays a secondary role in the American liberal democracy agenda and strategic interests. If Russia is neutered and the European theatre becomes benign then America can turn its undivided attention to the Chinese.

Perhaps this is another reason
link
How good are the Russians at the electronic guts of their weapon systems?

Is this all part of combat tactics?

Point taken.
I have deleted my posts

[bala]

Ukr is reporting that Oil tanks were hit at Lyshchansk and the Ukr army retreated from Popasna. Shipilovo was also hit.
Ukr said on Friday that Russian forces had almost encircled Severodonetsk - the easternmost city still held by Ukr - and are trying to storm it.

"Phoenix" and "Lugakom" mobile operators, which operate in the territories controlled by the DPR and LPR groups [the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic], are switching to the Russian +7 phone system.
So these areas are already part of Russia.

[suryag]

===deleted===

[suryag]

^^^ yikes no more on this, will take down the post.

[bala]

Mykolaiv Region and the city of Mykolaiv in particular have also been struck by Russian missiles. Russian troops carried out a missile strike on an infrastructure facility in Voznesensk District of the Mykolayiv Region. Donetsk Region: Air strikes and artillery shelling of Avdiivka,Sviatohirsk, Siversk, Lyman, Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, Marinka, and Toretsk and Ocheretyn municipal territorial communities continued.

Colonel Vladimir Baranyuk, commander of Ukraine's 36th Naval Infantry brigade ended up surrendering peacefully after being captured during a failed attempt to flee the city of Mariupol.
// contrast this with the US deep state knocking of generals of Russia.

[Deans]

Mykolaiv Region and the city of Mykolaiv in particular have also been struck by Russian missiles. Russian troops carried out a missile strike on an infrastructure facility in Voznesensk District of the Mykolayiv Region. Donetsk Region: Air strikes and artillery shelling of Avdiivka,Sviatohirsk, Siversk, Lyman, Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, Marinka, and Toretsk and Ocheretyn municipal territorial communities continued.

Colonel Vladimir Baranyuk, commander of Ukraine's 36th Naval Infantry brigade ended up surrendering peacefully after being captured during a failed attempt to flee the city of Mariupol.
// contrast this with the US deep state knocking of generals of Russia.

While Russian General level officer losses are well known, Ukraine has lost several Battalion and regimental commanders either KIA or POW.
They are not organized higher than brigade level. Typically the highest ranked Ukrainian officer actually on the battlefield will be a Colonel.

[brar_w]

Based on the latest videos emerging, newly received western artillery seems to be inflicting heavy damage on the Russians. Probably because of its increased range and due to the Ukrainians' counter-offensive around Kharkhiv and Izium bringing them closer.

I haven't seen the LW155 or other western (not former FSU) systems showing up on the frontline just yet. The few videos that we've seen show Ukr army training with it, probably in western Ukr or Germany. though over the last couple of days we've seen videos and images of Ukrainians towing these (there's a very recent one claimed to be around Odessa) so we're probably a week or so away from these arriving on the frontline in scale.

Here's what appears to be the first video of a LW155 in use at the front line.

[Tanaji]

Further to my comment on Nato providing ISR:

https://eurasiantimes.com/china-deeply- ... ities-usa/

Has information on how Starlink is being used in active combat. Yes, SpaceX isnt Nato, but it almost is.

[brar_w]

Starlink is commercial internet and is hardly “ISR” though it gets to be a pain for Russia to shut it off like they can with other forms of internet providers or utilities. In a modern battlefield, one should expect their adversary to use the internet if it’s available and you probably need to have a way to turn it off to deny them this capability.

None of the crap that the PLA are saying about Starlink is substantiated or should be taken seriously. At the end or the day it is commercial internet so if someone has managed to take that capability and morph it into their decision making and SA then that’s on the defensive team for not having a way to disrupt a commercial signal..It’s not like these are hardened jam resistant signals with multiple redundancies built in though those hardened mil grade LEO constellations are not too far off. Ukraine is also probably paying for relatively high resolution commercial satellite imagery. But that’s also hardly “NATO” it’s just being smart and making best use of what they have access to. This obviously doesn’t take away from more direct and military grade ISR and targeting being provided openly by NATO (mostly the US). One can simply look at ISR orbits around the Black Sea to see what sort of capability is being provided .

[Cyrano]

If Starlink is no game changer, then why deploy it in a war zone? So that these nazi soldiers can relax with some HD p*rn after a hard day's battle? If its even marginally or redundantly useful, then it becomes another provocation thats a rung in the escalation ladder. Hoping Russia will destroy some Musky satellites using an ASAT missile and US can once more paint them as (Space) villains.

[John]

If Starlink is no game changer, then why deploy it in a war zone? So that these nazi soldiers can relax with some HD p*rn after a hard day's battle? If its even marginally or redundantly useful, then it becomes another provocation thats a rung in the escalation ladder. Hoping Russia will destroy some Musky satellites using an ASAT missile and US can once more paint them as (Space) villains.

I doubt russia for starters can even shoot down one of starlink satellite they are much smaller than Cosmos satellite they have hit before. Also the missile costs quite a lot (atleast 10+ mill) and these Sats don’t even cost 200k so Elon would love it to see Russia go bankrupt trying to knock it down.

[Tanaji]

Brar_w: it matters little whether an asset is commercial or government. What matters is who has exclusive control over the asset and what it is being used for. The second part is easier: only the Ukranians can use it and they use it to target Russians, mostly for days uplinks.

The first part as well: do you think the US government will sit by idly if the Russians start taking out Starlink satellites? They will consider it as a strategic asset (if they haven’t already) and it will invite retribution on Russian space assets by US. So this is a good as a US asset and not a commercial company.

I agree that it is not in a league of a military ISR asset. All it gives is a reliable communication link, but that is significant as well.

[Tanaji]

I doubt russia for starters can even shoot down one of starlink satellite they are much smaller than Cosmos satellite they have hit before. Also the missile costs quite a lot (atleast 10+ mill) and these Sats don’t even cost 200k so Elon would love it to see Russia go bankrupt trying to knock it down.

They can very well do a small EMP in low Earth orbit when the starlink train passes. 4-5 of these will take out some coverage of that area…

[John]

I doubt russia for starters can even shoot down one of starlink satellite they are much smaller than Cosmos satellite they have hit before. Also the missile costs quite a lot (atleast 10+ mill) and these Sats don’t even cost 200k so Elon would love it to see Russia go bankrupt trying to knock it down.

They can very well do a small EMP in low Earth orbit when the starlink train passes. 4-5 of these will take out some coverage of that area…

Even then cost is high to get rocket and low yield warhead that high, best approach is laser or some sort of antiSat Satellite that deorbits other satellite. Those are probably most cost benefit approach, I know China has been working on the latter.

Anyway on topic of Ukraine, Ukrainians are claiming Gerasimov is dead in the previous strike . As Gerasimov is missing in todays parade he has been seen in previous parades.

I suspect Gerasimov injuries where serious or visible enough where he was left off. If you recall a week ago he was supposedly caught in strike North of Izyum per Ukrainians. Russian sources did confirm he was moved from Belgorod to Moscow right after, they claimed he visited the forces in Ukraine but was suddenly moved out and He hasn’t been seen since.

https://www.newsweek.com/valery-gerasim ... ng-1704798

[brar_w]

Starlink is no game changer, then why deploy it in a war zone?

I don’t think you’re getting what I wrote. It is commercial internet that is a lot more survivable and re-deployable than traditional commercial internet infrastructure or other utilities like land lines or mobile towers. So those with access to it are going to make full use of it in whatever shape they can in terms or obtaining a tactical mil advantage just as they would use commercially derived imagery or Sentinel or other similar services. High speed internet from LEO is going to proliferate way beyond Starlink so this will be the norm going forward just like using mobile phones and its associate infrastructure was leveraged to trigger IEDs years ago.

Back to my main point, this is a commercial signal and service - a modern military should really be aiming to disrupt the military grade signal and version of a globally deployed LEO or MEO constellation. You aren’t going to ASAT your way out of this - this is a CEW problem set and one can read between the lines to see how effective they’d be at disrupting mil grade space capability if SL hasn’t been made useless months into it being used in Ukraine.

Brar_w: it matters little whether an asset is commercial or government. What matters is who has exclusive control over the asset and what it is being used for. The second part is easier: only the Ukranians can use it and they use it to target Russians, mostly for days uplinks.

Yeah I get it. US or any other country would have the ability to exercise control over their own (or friendly) commercial service providers just as Russia or China would do the same to theirs. So this is mostly a case of those not having commercial players with vast deployed LEO constellations yet rather than a “blame SpaceX” etc. Ukraine is smart in using commercial internet including SL to its advantage. It’s on Russia to jam or disrupt that signal and deny them of it and field something similar if they feel they’ll befit from it. This is the future and expect multiple privately owned SL like constellations over the next decades including those from China so it’s just a part of a modern battlefield and you have to be prepared to manage that problem.

[ldev]

I doubt russia for starters can even shoot down one of starlink satellite they are much smaller than Cosmos satellite they have hit before. Also the missile costs quite a lot (atleast 10+ mill) and these Sats don’t even cost 200k so Elon would love it to see Russia go bankrupt trying to knock it down.

They can very well do a small EMP in low Earth orbit when the starlink train passes. 4-5 of these will take out some coverage of that area…

An EMP in space is the first step in launching a nuclear strike by taking out your opponent's early warning satellite systems, and will be seen as such so if Russia detonates an EMP in space the world will be on a hair trigger nuclear alert if not launch. The Russians know this from Soviet days and will refrain from any such step unless they wish to initiate a nuclear exchange. Of course you have hardened military satellites which will be able to withstand the EMP, but regardless any EMP in space will lead to a nuke launch countdown by the opponent which may or may not be halted by cooler heads.

[Tanaji]

Ldev and brarji ,

Fair points.

[John]

Where is RusAF is my question when I see this UkrAF Su-24 pounding positions ( keep in mind this has been doing this few times in this area so it’s not anything new), I have my doubts whether RusAF is properly utilizing their AWACS and combat AC patrols.

https://twitter.com/redintelpanda/statu ... _nl2KkPEAQ

[Leonard]

Now that #Popasna has fallen & the #Siverskyi Donets has been crossed, #Russia is poised to finish the first dramatic encirclement of the war. Any UA troops not falling back to at least the Bakhmut-Siversk line & better the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Toretsk line will be surrounded.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status ... 2Lp6QqAAAA

[John]

Popasna was likely a lost cause for a while the real threat for Ukr comes from these bridging attempts in Bilohorvika. Reported some Russian forces have moved in

https://twitter.com/hn_schlottman/statu ... _nl2KkPEAQ

In Ukrainian side looks like Kharkiv has been more or less been cleared up and forces more now moving to Izyum.

https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1523 ... _nl2KkPEAQ

[bala]

Russian missiles and shell volleys landed in border areas of Ukraine’s Sumy and Chernihiv Regions, in the Shostka District of the Sumy Region, villages of the Horodnia District and in Hlukhiv.

A well-known officer of the Ukrainian Navy, Deputy Commander of the Navy for Aviation, Colonel Ihor Bedzai, has died in Ukrainian skies, said marine and military expert Taras Chmut. Deputy head of Ukrainian navy, Colonel Bezday, killed in action while conducting a military operation with the Mi-14 marine helicopter which was hit by a Russian fighter jet.

On the Lyman front, Russians have seized the northern outskirts of Shandryholove (Donetsk Region) following an assault. The Russians continue their offensive on the Lyman, Popasna, Sievierodonetsk and Avdiivka fronts. On the Kurakhove front, the Russians with the support of artillery resume the offensive towards Novomikhailivka. Russian forces have carried out shelling in the areas of Prudianka, Slatyne and Tsyrkuny and a major offensive in the Izium - Barvinkovo and Izium - Sloviansk sectors. On the Pivdennyi Buh and Tavriysk fronts, the Russian troops, supported by aircraft, continue to strike, regroup and reinforce their units, and increase their fire and logistical support systems. The ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov continue to isolate the area of combat operations, conducting reconnaissance and providing fire support along the Primorsk front.

[Cyrano]

The best combat tactic on display from NATO side is Projection. ie to take one's own misdeeds / failures and attribute them to Russia.

A bunch of fine examples in this ex combattant in Donbass' account which reveals the wilful blindness on display here, where Europeans are now surpassing Americans.

[ks_sachin]

The best combat tactic on display from NATO side is Projection. ie to take one's own misdeeds / failures and attribute them to Russia.

A bunch of fine examples in this ex combattant in Donbass' account which reveals the wilful blindness on display here, where Europeans are now surpassing Americans.

Sorry, I don't understand? To me, he is describing his combat experience or am I missing something. Any new jawan who has not been through the experience of a live op is likely to be like that. Speak to some of the jawans/officers who were involved in the road clearing ops in the valley in the early 1990's. We took a lot of casualties as well.

[NRao]

I have found about 3 sources to be rather "reliable"

The one that is most reliable, is, and posts every day:

(He is a South-East Asian guy and in the recent past he has been providing his own tactical views (editorials) - but he is good and his maps are really granular. Try him out):

[John]

^ If you want up to date progress you can follow this person, Ukraine War map in Twitter he is pretty good.

https://twitter.com/war_mapper?s=21&t=0 ... xvjL157uVg

Latest updates

Updates:

Ukr carried out two offensives in the Kharkiv area.

North of Kharkiv, Ukraine captured the settlements of Slobozhanske, Borshchova, Rus'ki Tyshky, and Cherkas'ki. Lyptsi is contested.

Northwest of Kharkiv, Ukraine captured Bairak, Rubizhne, Verkhnii Saltiv, and Zamilivka.

Southwest of Izyum Russia has taken control of Velyka Komyshuvakha.

Russian forces have reached Derylove and Drobysheve, to the Northwest of Lyman.

[niran]

Here's what appears to be the first video of a LW155 in use at the front line.

training video saar, there is a vrew member standing barrel side a criminal negligence translate into rookie gun crew on first day of training

[John]

Might belong in our Armour thread this vid illustrates how venerable T-90 rear section is, T-90m (most advanced variant) taken out by Carl Gustaf

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... 3KO30sEiKQ

[Cyrano]

The best combat tactic on display from NATO side is Projection. ie to take one's own misdeeds / failures and attribute them to Russia.

A bunch of fine examples in this ex combattant in Donbass' account which reveals the wilful blindness on display here, where Europeans are now surpassing Americans.

Sorry, I don't understand? To me, he is describing his combat experience or am I missing something. Any new jawan who has not been through the experience of a live op is likely to be like that. Speak to some of the jawans/officers who were involved in the road clearing ops in the valley in the early 1990's. We took a lot of casualties as well.

Projection items from the interview :
- Russian Army is deploying greenhorn soldiers, badly trained, equipped and fed.
- RA is dependent on foreign mercenaries
- RA deliberately targets civilian areas for no reason
- RA soldiers desert battlefield and run (ex near Kiev)
- RA tanks don't have good targeting and fire blindly
- RA has no snipers or they're no good
- RA overhyped Chechen / Wagner fighters
Etc.
We have heard such affirmations in western MSM and SM over and over since this war started, haven't we?

[Cyrano]

On StarLink - it seems we agree that if available Ukr can use mil or commercial grade telecom infra and that would be a smart thing to do, and of course any thing Russia considers is helping it's enemy kill Russian soldiers is a legitimate target. There are many ways to go after a legitimate target in a war, it seems Elon Musk realises it and is building a fortress of tweets to protect himself. LoL !

[brar_w]

Yeah they can attempt to go after it just as they would for other utilities or communication. They haven’t so far and Star link overcame initial attempts to jam their signal. So let’s wait until we see what else Russia chooses to do since it hasn’t been successful over the last couple of months in terms of denying Ukraine the use of Starlink. As I said earlier, this is a CEW problem set so we’ll see what capabilities, if any, they have to go after it.