Russian / Ukranian Combat Tactics

[John]

Looks like deal has been worked out for Ukrainian forces in Mariupol to surrender, wounded are being taken to hospital near Mariupol. The total count per RT is 300 far cry from thousands claimed to holed up (sorry no 70 yr ex NATO general where among them ).

https://twitter.com/archer83able/status ... 1Zz0H8A8vg

https://twitter.com/militarylandnet/sta ... 1Zz0H8A8vg

Just a word of caution while RT and few Ukrainian sources are stating all Ukrainian soldiers have been pulled out and are being moved to occupied Russian territory before prisoner transfer to Ukraine. Others are stating Ukrainian soldier continue to remain in the plant so mixed communication on this.

[Cyrano]

From SM: "I hear that the Azovs surrendered after the Russian forces surrounded the steelworks with Dolby speakers and played the winning Eurovision song on repeat all night"
There's the tipping point Russia has been desparate to find.

[bala]

Luhansk Oblast is under constant fire from the Russians, especially Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. Luhansk region: there is massive shelling of Sievierodonetsk. Lysychansk, Pryvillia, Novodruzhesk, Rubizhne, Voievodivka and Bilohorivka have also been attacked from artillery and multiple launch rocket systems. Russians fired on the phenol chemical plant in Niu-York and the Avdiivka coke plant also came under fire. Russian shelling during the day in Shevchenkivskyi Raion [district] and Saltivka District. In Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian military struck Chuhuiv District, Derhachi and Barvinkove. Early in the morning in Mykolaiv there was a series of powerful explosions due to missile strikes and strikes by occupying forces’ multiple rocket launchers in residential areas of the city. There was shelling in the Bereznehuvatska municipal community during the day and in the evening. Fighting is taking place near Kherson and in communities on the border with Zelenodolske, Kryvyi Rih, Snihurivka and Mykolaiev.

Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest man owns steel plant of Azovstal. At the ruined plant some 600 Ukrainian troops are wounded and need medical assistance. "The Russians have firm control over the city", said Dzhemilev, the leader of the Crimean Tatars and a member of the Ukrainian parliament. According to Iryna Vereshchuk, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, almost 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are besieged in the Azovstal plant in Mariupol.

[ramana]

Guys, It's not even India's war yet you guys are reporting each other.
Be temperate and don't get banned.
brar can you lay off the outright support for Ukraine. We don't have info yet you repeatedly rush to defend Ukraine.

And others we all know his bias. So what do you get by saying teacher, teacher he ***
Admins will shut the thread and you are all left high and dry.
So both lay off.
Thanks.

[brar_w]

Yes sure. No more posting from me at all. Bye

[Manish_P]

Yes sure. No more posting from me at all. Bye

Come now Brar Sa'ab, humbly request you to take it in the right spirit.

You have been a highly disciplined poster.. your thread discipline in particular is exemplary.

And you have always posted with articles/ videos with high levels of authenticity, backed by sources.

I, for one, have gained immense knowledge from your posts.

Request you to please continue here in these forums.

[Cyrano]

Brar ji, just a few skirmishes and you want to desert! Hope you draw some inspiration from Ukr fighters and stay on.... It's gonna be a long one saar !
Seriously, I for one would not rejoice seeing you go .

BTW I haven't reported anyone.
Everybody has the right to their opinions however wrong they may be

[Baikul]

Ramana ji I’ve been following this thread and the war intensely, and - for what it’s worth (mostly likely little)- brar_w ji has easily been the highest value poster on this thread. Which is saying something because a lot of people (pro and anti) have contributed. His focus on combat tactics (the thread title) has been informative and bang on target.

IMO if one looks at context, charges of him biased in favour of Ukraine are totally wrong IMO. I think it‘a a function of the fact that we have a lot more data from the Ukrainian / western side than from the Russians.

But I agree that - as Indians - taking sides on this issue is ridiculous. And the tone of posters defending their ‘sides’ can get amusing.

Also, can we stick to combat tactics, and not politics? This is a high value thread being ruined by posters feeling insulted because ‘their side’ isn’t doing well.

[Baikul]

On topic, as other posters have mentioned on this page, Azovstal is an interesting case. On the one side the Azov regiment (along with other Ukrainian units, IIRC the marines) have defended the place amazingly well, maybe even fanatically. The factory is supposed to be nuclear hardened.

I will note this as personal opinion - the Azov regiment has a clear Nazi heritage, which personally for me hasn’t been cleared up (despite western media attempts) amd removes any sympathy I may have, despite the fact that they’ve fought really really well.

On the other hand, despite their gritty defence, it seems that the Azov regiment is compromising despite earlier having stated that they’d fight to the end. It seems that there’s some sort of surrender deal with the Russians. Sources below:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/az ... 022-05-16/

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-ne ... 60135.html

[Rakesh]

Yes sure. No more posting from me at all. Bye

There is no need for that.

[Pratyush]

To bring the thread back on topic.

Why is Russian armour on the field without any of the APS systems developed by Russia?

The same question for the APS developed for helicopter. Shot down helicopter don't seem fitted with active protection systems.

[Maria]

On topic, as other posters have mentioned on this page, Azovstal is an interesting case. On the one side the Azov regiment (along with other Ukrainian units, IIRC the marines) have defended the place amazingly well, maybe even fanatically. The factory is supposed to be nuclear hardened.

I will note this as personal opinion - the Azov regiment has a clear Nazi heritage, which personally for me hasn’t been cleared up (despite western media attempts) amd removes any sympathy I may have, despite the fact that they’ve fought really really well.

On the other hand, despite their gritty defence, it seems that the Azov regiment is compromising despite earlier having stated that they’d fight to the end. It seems that there’s some sort of surrender deal with the Russians. Sources below:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/az ... 022-05-16/

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-ne ... 60135.html

So, they would surrender after all. In fact Intel Slava says they are surrendering in batches already. Would you know how many Russian/Allied troops are currently committed towards Azovstal?

Also, I like to categorically mention that Kharkiv is very much a target for capture by the Russians because unlike Chernihiv and Sumy - the Russians keep returning there for probing and recon, however, commonsense tells me that they will be forced to take more territory beyond Kharkiv in the West. They will have to build strong points along a natural barrier such as the Dniepr, as to me, any gains in the Donbass will be untenable even with a temporary ceasefire.

Also, one of the reasons why Russia has committed so few troops is because of paucity of funds, however, it seems some in the West are relenting and releasing Russian funds frozen. Once more funds are released, Russia would probably commit more troops to the theatre.

Once, the Donbass falls (which it will soon - obvious from reports), it will free up over 100,000 men for an attack on the Northern Ukrainian cities east of the Dniepr.

This war won't end this year - the West will keep fueling the war with umpteen provocations and more Ukro-orc-Nazis will die all over the East. The West will egoistically arm the Pakrainians with the delusion that it would drain Russia to a breaking point.

Watch out for another spectacular attack on Russian territory to further engrage the Rus'. The Varangians are not done yet.

[Cyrano]

they’ve (Azov) fought really really well.

Err... I'm not sure of that. Just a few years back they were football hooligans, rewarded for helping achieve Maidan regime change by legitimising them (ie right to bear arms all the time, use force and kill), given regiment status and then insidiously integrated into Ukr forces horizontally as well as the "political" command structure that controls the AFU from within, to a very large extent. They are also credited with rampant drug usage. There are multiple reports of committed journos and medical volunteers whom you won't see cited in MSM that have attested first hand to all this. Together with SBU they control Ukr and ensure Massa's bidding is done.

The members of such undeservedly power drunk militias will not care to master military skills like calculating artillery barrages or setting up a network of trenches or manoeuvre tactics or firing missiles or repairing tanks or medvac etc. They are a pack of barking pitbulls to ensure their master's desired order is maintained. I wouldn't call that "fighting" in the way an Indian Army regiment would do its "fighting".

What I've observed Azov do so far, is take shelter in civilian areas, terrorise people to occupy civilian structures, adopt some urban guerrilla warfare tactics and launch ATGM/RPG attacks on Russian vehicles. Thats something many rag tag militias with teenage kids have done all over the world. Where Azov distinguishes itself is how easily and frequently they brand their own people as pro-russian and lynch/rob/maim/kill fleeing non-combatants. And shoot their colleagues in the back who dare speak of retreat or surrender. There are multiple accounts of civilians who report that Azov snipers randomly killed civilians going out in search of food and water in Mariupol and elsewhere - just target practice.

Despite all the drugs, the shelling and missile strikes in Mariupol must have knocked some sense into them and they have en masse run into Azovstal dungeons taking several hundreds of civilians along with them for barter later. Which is exactly what has happened now; caring little for ones own life is not bravery, caring none for other's lives is not valour. I haven't come across a single battle recit that I can call "fighting really really well".

If you can share any detailed accounts of battlefield bravery or brilliance by Azov (led) battalions, things that would fetch a medal in Indian Army for example, please do share. I'm open to change my views of them.

[Rakesh]

But I agree that - as Indians - taking sides on this issue is ridiculous. And the tone of posters defending their ‘sides’ can get amusing.

Two schools of thought here.

Thought 1 —> This line of thinking comes from a section of posters who despise Nehru’s non-alignment strategy (today known as multi polar alignment). Russian maal is bad. India is now in a bind. Serves India right for continuing to align with Russia and purchasing their kit in large numbers. Have fun when the Chinese coming invading. None of the Russian kit is reliable. It is all going to fail and India will lose. India had ample opportunity to get into a military alliance - since the early 2000s - with the West (basically Amreeka), but did not do it because of foolishness and lack of vision.

Thought 2 —> Russian maal is not perfect. Lots of QC issues. However getting out of the clutches of the Russian bear and running into the all loving embrace of America is not a wise strategy either. India is only shifting her reliance from one nation to another. Our relationship with Russia dates back to the 50s. India does not need to enter into military alliances, especially with the United States.

As long as these two schools of thought are diametrically opposed to each other, you will always have folks taking sides. Taking sides was bound to happen in such an environment. Both just want each other to fail, because the alternative is scary. But the conflict has become an arduous slug fest between Ukraine and Russia. IMVHO, neither will win.

Failure (real and perceived) of Russian maal on the battlefield is also being fanned vigorously in this thread, to push an agenda and narrative —> Drop Russian, Buy American. Make America Great Again and Keep America Great

In this mess, the geopolitical lesson for India is already known to her —> there are no permanent friends, only interests. It is a lesson she has learnt - sometimes the hard way - consistently since independence. When India achieves self reliance, taking sides will no longer be relevant.

Also, can we stick to combat tactics, and not politics? This is a high value thread being ruined by posters feeling insulted because ‘their side’ isn’t doing well.

There should have been two threads - one for combat tactics and the other for the political fallout of this conflict. That did not happen and therefore a tamasha is playing out between two competing groups vying for the top slot and the subsequent bragging rights.

[NRao]

Yes sure. No more posting from me at all. Bye

Unnecessary

[NRao]

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/stat ... 3401202688

#Lyman Update - #Russian forces continue their assault on Lyman and are progressing in surrounding and laying siege to the town. Novoselivka to the NW either has been or will be captured in the next 24 hours and fighting rages 2km away in Yarova as indicated by #NASA FIRMS data.

#Ukrainian troops defending #Lyman will soon have to decide whether to bunker down for a #Mariupol like siege or fallback to the SE over the Donets River. The bridges over the river have been destroyed to slow #Russian advances. If #UAF doesn't decide soon, they will be trapped.

[Pratyush]

Rakesh, an excellent summary of thought process of several posters from your end.

However, my own thoughts are somewhat different from what you have encapsulated in your post. One of the reasons why I am a relative lurker on the thread.

I am sympathetic to the Russian cause due to the realpolitic of the situation. Because I recognise that the post 91 settlement in Europe was unfair to Russia. But because they could not redress the situation at that time. They accepted that settlement.

But the moment they had developed the ability in their own mind. That they could address the situation. They started to do so.

Starting from 2007.

The US has been a bad faith actor for reasons best known to itself. With the different interventions in Ukraine starting from 2004 and 2014.

The situation since 2014 is covered in great detail in the other thread. So no need for me to rehash the argument. In a lot of ways, i think that Russian tactical interest will be served with detachment from Ukraine of the Eastern Provinces and the Criemia.

However, what I am unable to understand is the lack of full Russian mobilisation in the face of what it's up against in Ukraine. What do the Russians know that the rest of the world don't.

[Cyrano]

An example of firsthand witness - A former French SF guy who went to Ukr recently as medical volunteer who speaks about Azov militias pervasive influence, terror tactics and the free hand they enjoy to commit atrocities, says he has hours of video clips to back up everything he said, if any media is willing to open their eyes and see it:
https://youtu.be/ZoKnhXnp-Zk
Despite all that he taught them some battlefield injury management and life saving first aid techniques. I'd expect some of that would already be part of professional soldiers training, but then Azov are something else.

Dunno if auto translate is possible for those who dont understand French. There are reports from another French journalist Anne Laure Bonnel who spent months in Donbass, now no longer welcome in Ukraine. Also from Italian reporter Georgio Bianchi.

I would caution anyone from forming strong opinions on the progress of this war, the tactics adopted and the motivations/capabilities driving them, or notable incidents like snake island, river crossings, cluster munitions, azovstal solely based on MSM and popular SM influencer's content. The reality can often be very very different. By and large I find Russian media more factual therefore reliable (though not always full picture) than western media.

Last OT from me on this, because I felt its important to clarify where some of my strong views on this topic have developed from.

[NRao]

But I agree that - as Indians - taking sides on this issue is ridiculous. And the tone of posters defending their ‘sides’ can get amusing.

In the fog of war a lot of things are causalities, including relations between family members (there is a video out there on Germans of Russian origin and one can see very distinct Venn diagrams). It is natural and has happened for eons.

However, IMO, one of the "sides" here are the Neoconservatives (Neocons) (as opposed to the US) have an element of deliberately "interventionism in international affairs" to make the other nation in their own image. Will try and post in the other UKR/RU thread on this topic, but, to finish this thought, the Neocons are responsible for all those color revolutions - and, it is simple - they want to change the world to reflect their views - so, that is what they do. Dogs bark, lions rorar, and Neocons intervene. Nothing complicated

So, WRT to "India", apply that thought of "interventionism in international affairs". Once this is understood one can then understand what Jaishankar has been saying since 2019 AND the friction that has developed between Jaishankar and Blinken.

The Neocons have made a move on Somalia.

[Cyrano]

If one can be urged to recollect, the 36th Marine Brigade of AFU surrendered few weeks ago when its commander realised they were surrounded on all sides by RA and continuing to fight means inevitable death for all his 1500 odd men. In my book thats an honourable soldier. He did not hole up somewhere with civilians as ransom and try to negotiate safe passage with arms to a third country - thats Azov.

[NRao]

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/stat ... 7651280897

#Donetsk Update - #Russian forces continued to make incremental progress in this area. #RUAF shelled the entire front line with a special emphasis on #Ukrainian positions in #Severodonetsk. #Russia also advanced in towns along the front line. Half of Toskivka was captured today.

#RUAF also attacked and gained a foothold in Novozvanivka to the S of #Popasna. #RUAF also made advances around Komyshuvakha but have not managed to enter the town yet. #Ukrainian troops continue to repel #RUAF assaults on Katerynivka and Zolote.

#Russian forces also attacked to the W of #Popasna and have reached the outskirts of Pylychatyne. #RUAF has not taken the small village yet, but likely will do so within the next 24 hours. This is a continuation of the #RUAF attempts to envelop #Ukrainian troops in #Donbas.

[Cyrano]

Rakesh ji,
Agree with what you're saying, but there is a more subtle polarisation happening here.

Those who want to continue to stick to dominant American/western world view trusting it to be benign/right and therefore wanting Ukraine to win and Russia to lose - on one side

And those like me who dont hesitate to call out rapacious and toxic sides of American/western world view which we fear will sooner or later impact India directly and see Russia's fight as an important force of containment of this toxicity even if defeating it seems unlikely in the near future. I think some posters are in denial of this because it will make a lot of what they believed all their life come crashing down. Facing an internal meltdown is not a nice place to be.

I personally have pity for Ukrain's suffering but no sympathy for what they've let themselves become as a society and as a nation. And my respect for western institutions, politicians, thinkers, media, and its unthinking public is at a sad all time low.

However I do realise attributing collective blame is the first slippery step that leads to a collective guilt judgement and justifies collective punishment - the very same path taken by extremist (Neo)nazi ideologues - and "cancel everything Russian" anti fascists activists (!!!) so I try to be very very careful on that.

[ks_sachin]

Rakesh,

A good summary.

I started this thread purely to understand combat tactics. Along the way, I have also used it to observe people's biases and the battle between ideology and reason.

While I may or may not have particular leanings my desire to understand combat strategy and tactics is unideological. It is premeditated on the fact that every action teaches me something and gives me some insight into the bigger picture.

I have been interested here in understanding BTGs because we have a parallel in our own reorg in the IBG concept for example. Another question was around the use of Armr and that is something I am exploring in the Armr thread.

So please if you can remove me from your equation as I feel don't this I fit into any one of those from the perspective of this thread.

That is why Brar_w was good. He knew enough to cut through some of the fanciful notions that people had/have - across a number of threads.

[Baikul]

they’ve (Azov) fought really really well.

Err... I'm not sure of that. Just a few years back they were football hooligans, rewarded for helping achieve Maidan regime change by legitimising them (ie right to bear arms all the time, use force and kill), given regiment status and then insidiously integrated into Ukr forces horizontally as well as the "political" command structure that controls the AFU from within, to a very large extent. They are also credited with rampant drug usage. …

The members of such undeservedly power drunk militias will not care to master military skills……

They are a pack of barking pitbulls to ensure their master's desired order is maintained. I wouldn't call that "fighting" in the way an Indian Army regiment would do its "fighting".

What I've observed Azov do so far, is take shelter in civilian areas, terrorise people to occupy civilian structures, adopt some urban guerrilla warfare tactics and launch ATGM/RPG attacks on Russian vehicles. ……

If you can share any detailed accounts of battlefield bravery or brilliance by Azov (led) battalions, things that would fetch a medal in Indian Army for example, please do share. I'm open to change my views of them.

Saar, they’ve defended Mariupol for weeks now, Russia hasn’t been able to take control. That simple fact is enough to determine their effectiveness.

I Don’t have any special detailed accounts of AZOV bravery (unless you see the insane amounts of video footage, which is commonly shared and there are plenty of those). But is that relevant? How does a medal matter to overall effectiveness?

They’ve defended a location for weeks despite having the crap bombed out of them - that is credible IMO. And you don’t have to be the equivalent of an IA regiment to be recognised as a fighting force.

No, I think they’ve done well in defending Mariupol. But now that it’s seems they’re surrendering their wounded (for starters) - they’ve disappointed plenty who believed they’d never give up.

I also notice that I am ‘defending’ a group that I personally despise just trying to be dispassionate.

[Cyrano]

Factually wrong saar, all of Mariupol except for 11sq km of Azovstal has been under Russian control for weeks now. Russians took the city when 36th Marine Brigade surrendered and Azov ran from the city, tried to escape from the sea port but Ru naval blockade made it impossible. Some just put on civilian clothes and melted away (a few were caught at RA manned check points thanks to nazi tattoos etc.), others took lots of civilians (exact circumstances & are they related families is not clear) and holed up under Azovstal. Will that qualify as effective combat tactics? I'll let you decide. RA had decided they're not going anywhere, and waited them out instead of risking their soldiers in dungeon fights.

Cruelty and bigotedness is a coward's refuge. When Azov's loyalty is only to themselves, what or who else will they defend ? Azov militias' bravery is a carefully orchestrated myth, don't fall for it.

added later: This perception might be the result of how western MSM has been reporting on it, "Ukr nationalist resistance", "last stand in azovstal", "Mariupol's brave defenders against Russian aggressors" etc. Totally bogus headlines dished out in a/c comfort of newsrooms in Paris, Berlin, London, NY etc by people who never set foot in Ukraine, and are spoon fed by Kiev regime's PR machine people - who themselves are kept under Azov gun's shadow.

[ManuJ]

Guys, It's not even India's war yet you guys are reporting each other.
Be temperate and don't get banned.
brar can you lay off the outright support for Ukraine. We don't have info yet you repeatedly rush to defend Ukraine.

And others we all know his bias. So what do you get by saying teacher, teacher he ***
Admins will shut the thread and you are all left high and dry.
So both lay off.
Thanks.

Just wow.
I guess it's acceptable to call Ukrainians 'Nazi pigs' on this thread but not to try and present the truth about the war.

[Cyrano]

ManuJ,
Feel free to present evidence to blow my argument to bits that Ukraine is today controlled and run by Nazi pigs. Truth alone triumphs, right?

Its impossible to say how much of that ideology common folks of Ukr have bought into and silently/actively support. At an individual level, I'd hold every Ukrainian innocent unless proven otherwise; but as a collective, they have done what they have done since 2010 or thereabouts. They cant escape their deeds which they even bragged about

My feeling is that brar_w wasn't upset about that what Ukrs are being called, or that his quest for truth is being stalled, but may be he got mighty uncomfortable about getting called out on the deceit & lies spread by the camp he was defending before and during this war.

[Baikul]

Factually wrong saar, all of Mariupol except for 11sq km of Azovstal has been under Russian control for weeks now….

I won’t argue on this, because I think we’ll get into semantics.

On topic: if the Russians manage to enforce a cease fire, it’s a tactical win for them.

[Cyrano]

Are the Russians asking for a cease fire? It was US DefSec Loyd Austin asking for it, no?

[eklavya]

Guys, It's not even India's war yet you guys are reporting each other.
Be temperate and don't get banned.
brar can you lay off the outright support for Ukraine. We don't have info yet you repeatedly rush to defend Ukraine.

And others we all know his bias. So what do you get by saying teacher, teacher he ***
Admins will shut the thread and you are all left high and dry.
So both lay off.
Thanks.

Just wow.
I guess it's acceptable to call Ukrainians 'Nazi pigs' on this thread but not to try and present the truth about the war.

ManuJ, losers have nothing to offer but insults. Take it as a sign of Putin’s complete failure (military, political, moral, financial, etc.) in this war. The whole world can see which side’s behaviour is akin to the Nazis. The moral vacuum and military incompetence is frankly staggering.

[Cyrano]

265 combattants surrendered at Azovstal today, 51 wounded transferred to hospitals.

More are surrendering in batches. Some demanded no photos or filming - curiously RA obliged, but drones filmed from above 50 odd people exiting carrying wounded on stretchers.

Russian Defense Ministry T channel has posted videos of surrendering men - they look harrowed and their clothes look several sizes too big , no doubt due to weeks of starvation.

More expected.

The Duma may pass a bill prohibiting those accused of war crimes from being exchanged.

[John]

Factually wrong saar, all of Mariupol except for 11sq km of Azovstal has been under Russian control for weeks now. Russians took the city when 36th Marine Brigade surrendered and Azov ran from the city, tried to escape from the sea port but Ru naval blockade made it impossible. Some just put on civilian clothes and melted away (a few were caught at RA manned check points thanks to nazi tattoos etc.), others took lots of civilians (exact circumstances & are they related families is not clear) and holed up under Azovstal. Will that qualify as effective combat tactics? I'll let you decide. RA had decided they're not going anywhere, and waited them out instead of risking their soldiers in dungeon fights.

Cruelty and bigotedness is a coward's refuge. When Azov's loyalty is only to themselves, what or who else will they defend ? Azov militias' bravery is a carefully orchestrated myth, don't fall for it.

added later: This perception might be the result of how western MSM has been reporting on it, "Ukr nationalist resistance", "last stand in azovstal", "Mariupol's brave defenders against Russian aggressors" etc. Totally bogus headlines dished out in a/c comfort of newsrooms in Paris, Berlin, London, NY etc by people who never set foot in Ukraine, and are spoon fed by Kiev regime's PR machine people - who themselves are kept under Azov gun's shadow.

Azov was using the plant as their hq they weren’t trying to escape via sea Ukraine has little to no transport capability and Russia attempted to storm the plant even couple days ago there are vids of fighting.

Please refrain from adjectives and political discussion and stick to factual information on combat.

Anyway overall I believe amount of defenders in Mariupol were vastly overestimated perhaps Ukraine didn’t have defenses prepared or Russia over committed its forces 10-15 BTGs to take whats turning out to be less than 2000 defenders (currently about 300 Azov are there and couple hundred marines were captured, so if we thriple that to account for dead and those who escaped).

[Cyrano]

Irrespective of how the Kiev regime spins the Azov surrender - rescue/evacuation/removal/coming home/victory I'm expecting the news of to trickle to the AFU troops dug into Donbass and lead to realisation that :
- their govt doesnt do zilch to rescue those boxed in, only worries about optics and how to spin their death or capture
- they are fighting a pointless war in their own territory against their (until very recently) own people of D & L
- there is no glory in dying like a rat when those "heroes" crying "Slava Ukraine" have given up
- Russians will treat them humanely, provide medical assistance and process them as PoWs
- Unless they have committed war crimes, they can hope to some day reunite with their family

A fantastic combat tactic for RA now would be to drop leaflets and message on loudspeakers all over the front lines urging surrender. Hopefully more senseless loss of life can be avoided.

[Cyrano]

John,
You seem to want to be in denial, using flimsiest of arguments based on cherry picking. Yes, Azov were using the steelworks dungeons as HQ, but they were joined by several hundreds as Mariupol fell. Sea rescue was attempted using commercial transport ships but was thwarted, after multiple heli-evacs were attempted and 6 or 8 helis got shot down.

RA units surrounded Azovstal completely and offered safe surrender to unarmed persons, its normal that they search and clear every building. Those who peeped out armed or shot at them were killed. What they avoided doing was enter the dungeons and fight underground.

Thanks for your advice on how I should word my posts.

[Cyrano]

BTW John, perhaps you can enlighten us why there were hundreds of women, children, civilians in Azov HQ ? Why they were kept there for weeks ignoring safe passage assurances, before finally letting them go. Was that part of Azov combat tactics as well ?

[John]

John,
You seem to want to be in denial, using flimsiest of arguments based on cherry picking. Yes, Azov were using the steelworks dungeons as HQ, but they were joined by several hundreds as Mariupol fell. Sea rescue was attempted using commercial transport ships but was thwarted, after multiple heli-evacs were attempted and 6 or 8 helis got shot down.

RA units surrounded Azovstal completely and offered safe surrender to unarmed persons, its normal that they search and clear every building. Those who peeped out armed or shot at them were killed. What they avoided doing was enter the dungeons and fight underground.

Thanks for your advice on how I should word my posts.

So far wreckage of only one helo was found unless the others disappeared (it is in oryx list) and I am not aware of any sea rescue by civilian vessel so you have any link to back it up? No civilian ship would enter a warzone, Turks did offer a deal to Russia and Ukraine (as Turkey controlled the straits) where they would help evacuate injured and wounded civilians and military personnel via ship. Are you confusing with that?

As for civilians being holed up there I assume they were family members of fighters or I believe the plant is almost mini city and it has residential housing complex and they could be from that area. They weren’t able to leave due to fighting and they did leave after last ceasefire agreement a week ago.

[Baikul]

Call it what it is - the Azov regiment fought well, when few expected them to.

However the Azov regiment is also surrendering, where once they’d handed out stories of immortal last stands, death before dishonour, etc. In fact the defiance that their leaders earlier showed on video seems to imply no surrender. And now here we are.

Can’t spin this any other way.

[Cyrano]

So much events have gone by in 80+ days, I haven't maintained a record of sources, but my sources are Telegram channels of Russia Def Min, RT, and a couple of other channels that basically post the content of the first 2 in English.

There were 3 heli rescue attempts reported, several days apart in early April iirc. The first attempt - 2 out of 3 helis got shot down. RA let them land, take off loaded with people and then shot them down. Unconfirmed reports of some French officers and other nationalities among the dead based on passports and patches found in wreckage.

The next 2 heli attempts came over the sea board into Azovstahl, they were shot down and fell into sea. No rescues reported. One has to search thru those channel messages to find the exact dates.

The ship rescue was attempted next, a few days before French presidential elections, a civilian transport ship veered off course at night and headed for Mariupol docks just west of Azovstal. Flares were fired from the docks but the ship was intercepted by RuN and escorted to Sebastopol I think. Soon after, RA took control of and sanitised these docks. Its conceivable that Azovs there ran (back) into the plant and joined others hiding there.

Several YT commentators following battle events daily reported/discussed these events as well.

[habal]

new york times & other west media insist on calling the mariupol azovite 'surrender' as evacuation.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1526 ... ZneuEdaeSg

Seen in Indian context it would mean 90,000 pakistani troops evacuated from bangladesh.

This is why you have to assume that pretty much everything coming out of “Western” media about the tactical progression of the war is a distortion. They’re operating within an impenetrable superstructure of ideology that prevents the NYT from labeling this a “surrender”

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1526 ... ZneuEdaeSg

[Cyrano]

I wondered for a while why RA wasn't doing more to totally interdict supply of west supplied weapons, M777 arty, mopped up tanks from FSU nations. There is enough real time public info on convoy movements, plane landings in Poland, trains loaded with mil stuff etc.

The explanation I've come up with in my mind, is the following : Perhaps RA knows that these supplies wont make a difference in the hands of poorly trained and fatigued AFU troops; but letting them come in and tracking them to their delivery point - which I think RA intel can very well do in most cases - allows them to pinpoint which are the best troops destined to receive them and then immediately shower them with Arty/Air attacks before such equipment can be put to any meaningful use.

They seem to be doing this quite effectively - going by the number of reports every day of captured western equipment. I'm thinking if this goes on for a few more months, Russia will have more stockpiled western arms than many EU-NATO countries !

Lviv/Yavoriv are major logistics bases for incoming foreign supplies like munitions (and earlier, mercenaries - but thats no longer trending now), of late Odessa area, and Russia has been striking this area regularly as well. Overall RA mil int seems to be working very well.