Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Apparently EU has abandoned immediate cutting of Russian oil. Lol. Postponed it:

https://twitter.com/StarboyHK/status/15 ... 7135863811
Bamboozled again by von der Leyen - going from a total Russian oil ban to:

To save Europe from Putin, we must continue to buy Russian oil. Because if we don't, Putin will sell it elsewhere and profit more from higher prices, so we better buy Russian oil and not let him profit

Embedded video of von der Leyen
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

NRao wrote:Apparently EU has abandoned immediate cutting of Russian oil. Lol. Postponed it:

https://twitter.com/StarboyHK/status/15 ... 7135863811
Bamboozled again by von der Leyen - going from a total Russian oil ban to:

To save Europe from Putin, we must continue to buy Russian oil. Because if we don't, Putin will sell it elsewhere and profit more from higher prices, so we better buy Russian oil and not let him profit

Embedded video of von der Leyen
Image
NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

^^^^^

I do NOT think so

These neocons are biding for time. IF and when they get their chance they will wipe the opposition out. India is top on their list. And, I *suspect* they have placed India in the Sino-Russo group - or at least leaning - "shaky" as Biden called it.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

One of the things that surprised me about sanctions is the speed at which MNC's who have spend 2 decades investing in the Russian market, abandoned it at the urging of the West. I worked in a leading MNC in consumer goods, in Russia. European bosses would regularly visit (as they do in India) to tell the natives how committed they were to the local market. They lost no time in exiting Russia once sanctions were announced. Its imperative for India to build its own MNC's, invite investment for non western sources (Gulf, Taiwan. Japan) and have local substitutes for imported products.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

I suspect sound business acumen has been replaced by corporate wokism and fear of woke intolerant consumers taking to SM and cancelling the brand.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Vayutuvan »

NRao wrote: Embedded video of von der Leyen
How to get that clip from youtube? That question/answer starts at 4 mins and ends at ~6 min mark.

Here is the full interview on YT

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ldev »

Russian oil and gas cannot be eliminated from the market if for no other reason than that no other producer or group of producers has the spare capacity to increase production by ~6.50-7.00 million barrels per day which is what Russia exports to the world. What can happen over a period of time after a painful adjustment of geographical flows is that countries that have not sanctioned Russian oil and gas will buy it and others wont. China e.g. currently buys 30% of Russian oil exports but only 6% of gas exports. Europe on the other hand buys almost 50% of Russian exports of oil and 75% of Russian exports of gas. Clearly those figures are reflective of oil and gas flows before February 2022. So the Russian oil and gas infrastructure is geared towards exports to Europe and it will take some painful adjustment for it to be re-directed towards China e.g.

An interesting article behind a paywall at Energy Intelligence which states that PSUs in the Indian Petroleum Sector are not showing much interest in buying Russian oil assets being divested by Western oil companies exiting Russia despite GOI suggestions that they do so.

https://www.energyintel.com/00000181-06 ... 1f5dc60000
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Shanmukh »

There are a few things to be noted here. Russia is integrating the southern regions - Zaporozhie, Kherson, etc into its administration. However, they are not doing the same thing in the north - Izyum and Kupyansk are still working as in the previous cases. This indicates to me one of the two possible things.
a) The Russians plan to trade back the Kharkov region to Ukraine in exchange for peace at some future date. In that case, there is no point integrating or spending money on those regions.
b) The Russians plan to hand over Kharkov to the new LDPR republic that they plan to create. In this case, Kharkov would be a vital thing for the LDPR republic, since Kharkov is the heart of the Donets industrialisation. Kharkov will be desperately needed to make LDPR economically strong and viable, and not depend on Russia for everything. In this case, Russia might keep the southern coast, and give large parts of the northern regions to LDPR - may be even Dnepropetrovsk and Sumy region, in case they have the mind to conquer these also. In the case of Ukraine totally collapsing, this would be perfectly feasible.

Not sure which they want to do, and even the Russians may be playing it by the ear, to figure out what to do in future. However, what is clear to me is that, short of a total collapse and the regions being conquered by Ukraine, Russia is not giving up the southern coast to Ukraine.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by SandeepA »

If Russia intends to landlock Ukraine then it will go ahead with the advance prior to completing the liberation of Donetsk as Luhansk is almost complete now. Once Donetsk is liberated too then Donbas is free and they are far too committed to end the SMO as this is the main stated objective. So my 2 cents on some heating up of Kharkov or mykoliav fronts once severodonetsk/ lysychansk is freed.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Russia may want to resolve Transnitria while they are at it, which means taking Odessa oblast
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Shanmukh »

SandeepA wrote:If Russia intends to landlock Ukraine then it will go ahead with the advance prior to completing the liberation of Donetsk as Luhansk is almost complete now. Once Donetsk is liberated too then Donbas is free and they are far too committed to end the SMO as this is the main stated objective. So my 2 cents on some heating up of Kharkov or mykoliav fronts once severodonetsk/ lysychansk is freed.
They still have to go some way to achieve the liberation of Donetsk. Lugansk will be complete once Lysychansk is taken, but they need to do quite a bit more in Donetsk - especially taking the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk region, and regaining Avdeevka [this is just the outskirts of Donetsk city, including its outer railway stations] and Maryinka. But they may be able to complete these in a couple of months. Once that is done, if they still have appetite, they can go for Nikolayev and Kharkov. Thing is - Kharkov will be defended desperately by Ukraine. It is the second city of Ukraine after Kiev and it is three times the size of Mariupol. We may see another meat-grinder like Mariupol, except in greater intensity if it is done. I am not sure that the Anglo-US alliance will let it happen even ....
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 1601314816
The Zaporozhye region in Southern Ukraine is switching from settlements in the Ukrainian hryvnia to Russian rubles.

Familiar pattern continues.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

As a place holder:

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 4612152321
Welcome to the new reality

India has sent medical supplies to Russia to assist Russian forces.

Large shipment of humanitarian aid including drugs manufactured in India.
A loaded tweet, IMO.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/stat ... 6867374080
#Russia struggled to initially re-open the port due to anti-ship mines placed by #Ukrainian forces to defend against an amphibious assault. The rolled steel shown below and taken by Russia may be the last ever produced at #Azovstal as its production capability has been destroyed.

Image
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Trying to find the original readout.

French/German/Italian/Austrian leaders got a earful from Putin:

* problem caused by Ukraine
* more western weapons will only lead to more problems
* food related issues are because of sanctions


Western leaders are stuck. Their sanctions has not worked. West is running low on everything, especially weapons to support UKR.

Supposedly there is a ref to "liberated" parts of UKR - what Russia has is what Russia keeps. Just deal with it.

Peace will cost UKR even more, IMO.

Putin told Scholz and Macron Russia is ready to resume dialogue with Kiev
MOSCOW, May 28. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a telephone conversation with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, confirmed Moscow's readiness to continue peace talks with Kiev, the Kremlin press service said on Saturday.

"Special attention was given to the state of affairs on the negotiating track, which is frozen because of Kiev. Vladimir Putin confirmed Russia is open to resuming the dialogue," the statement said.

Western weapons
Putin, in a telephone conversation with Macron and Scholz, stressed the danger of pumping Ukraine with Western weapons, the Kremlin press service said.

"The Russian President also highlighted the issue of dangerous ongoing pumping of Ukraine with Western weapons, warning of the risks of further destabilization of the situation and aggravation of the humanitarian crisis," the statement said.

Problems with food
Problems with food supplies were caused by anti-Russian sanctions and other mistakes of the West, Russian President said in a telephone conversation, the press service reported.

"Based on specific data, Vladimir Putin explained the real reasons for the difficulties with food supplies, which were the result of the misguided economic and financial policies of Western countries, as well as the anti-Russian sanctions they imposed," the statement said.

The Kremlin noted, "Russia is ready to help find options for unhampered exports of grain, including exports of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports". "Increasing supplies of Russian fertilizers and agricultural products will also help reduce tension on the global food market, which, of course, would require removing the relevant restrictions," the statement said.

"The leaders agreed to continue contacts," the Kremlin said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said earlier, the global food crisis happened long before the start of the military operation in Ukraine, due to factors such as the pandemic, and miscalculations of Western countries. At the same time, Lavrov added that the current situation has exacerbated the problem, and Western sanctions have become one of the key reasons for the disruption of food supplies, which worsened the crisis.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Blame game is out folks

Ukraine conflict is O V E R

Simon Tisdall :: The Donald and the Kremlin Don: how Trump’s toxic legacy helps Putin

Written by a English neocon in the Guardian, 15 hours ago:

___________________

Of course, Trump is the problem.
From Afghanistan to North Korea, Joe Biden is running short of time to repair the damage done by his predecessor in the White House
Even by Donald Trump’s chaotic standards, the “comprehensive peace agreement” for Afghanistan signed by the US in Doha in February 2020 was a huge own goal.

The pact posited no binding ceasefire, no power-sharing requirements, and no political roadmap. In return for some mumbo-jumbo about al-Qaida, Trump pledged total, unconditional US and Nato withdrawal within 14 months.

This was not peacemaking. This was capitulation. The Taliban could hardly believe their luck.

Trump hoped to benefit politically from “bringing the troops home”, even though the vast majority had already left. He was otherwise wholly indifferent to the fate of the Afghan people.

Military men in the US and UK were aghast. So, too, were diplomats, politicians, aid agencies and analysts familiar with Afghanistan. But their warnings of looming catastrophe were ignored.

Despite being hobbled by official secrecy, two damning reports this month, one by a US public watchdog, the other by the UK parliament’s foreign affairs committee (FAC), lay bare the almost unbelievable incompetence of the two governments.

Boris Johnson and the then British foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, failed to effectively challenge the Doha pact, then failed adequately to prepare for the 2021 withdrawal, the FAC report said.

On 8 July 2021, Johnson blithely told the Commons there was “no military path to victory for the Taliban”. On 15 August, Kabul fell. Chaos reigned. Evacuees died. Dogs were saved. But many UK-employed Afghan staff and workers were not.

Twenty years of nation-building, at a cost of tens of thousands of US, British and Afghan lives, were blown away in a few shameful days. Johnson and Raab should have resigned then, but didn’t. There’s still time, guys.

The report of the US special inspector general (Sigar) blamed the calamity on Trump as well as his successor, Joe Biden, and the then Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani.

Biden was certainly at fault. He should have insisted on renegotiating Doha and kept some US forces at Bagram base, outside Kabul. European Nato allies should have voiced their misgivings more forcibly.

But responsibility lies primarily with the man who set this lethal geopolitical car crash in motion. While boasting of his prowess as a dealmaker, Trump caved to a gang of feudal warlords, who promptly defaulted to tyranny.

Today’s ongoing Afghan tragedy is but one aspect of Trump’s toxic legacy. The negative impact of his presidency is still being felt around the world – and time is running out to dispel its noxious after-effects.

In two years’ time, Trump or a Trump-endorsed Republican clone could win back the White House. His reactionary, disruptive America First agenda may once again dictate the way the US deals, or fails to deal, with the big global challenges of the day.

This dire prospect is rendered more likely by Biden’s apparent inability, seen in Afghanistan, to fundamentally shift the dial on a range of key international issues.

It’s little wonder, for example, that occupation-related violence between Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank and elsewhere is at its highest level since 2014, according to the UN.

Trump abandoned peace efforts and the internationally preferred two-state solution, ignored the Palestinian Authority, and promoted the business-focused “Abraham Accords” between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain.

Since neither Gulf state threatened Israel, this was hardly the historic breakthrough he claimed. But it did further marginalise the Palestinians while helping legitimise the “apartheid crimes”, as characterised by Human Rights Watch, of successive Israeli governments.

Biden recently condemned yet another expansion of illegal West Bank settlements. But he has done little to revive the peace process. Maybe this will change when he visits Israel later this year. Maybe not.

Biden also appears to have bowed to Israeli pressure over Iran. Trump stupidly reneged on the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. Since then, Iran has reportedly moved steadily closer to acquiring nuclear weapons capability.

Trump’s blunder, coupled with repeated Israeli and US assassinations of prominent Iranians, has increased tensions. Yet despite a firm promise, Biden has been unable to revive the deal. Now it seems he’s giving up.

Trump made a fool of himself trying to charm the nuclear-armed North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-un. His photo-op summitry boosted Kim’s prestige for zero return. Kim has lately been firing off ballistic missiles like there’s no tomorrow. The way he’s going, there may not be.

Yet North Korea is another tinder-box issue on which Biden has nothing new to say. His visits to South Korea and Japan last week underlined how much he has neglected China and the Indo-Pacific region, ostensibly his top overseas priority.

Trump’s attempts to pressure China punished America. He picked trade fights that hurt US exporters and boycotted the Trans-Pacific Partnership – more own goals.

Now Biden is belatedly trying to pick up the pieces, reassuring Taiwan of US military backing, strengthening regional alliances, and launching a multi-country an “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” to counter China.

While some of his problems are self-inflicted, Biden’s struggle to repair the global damage wrought by Trump’s four-year rampage has been made infinitely more difficult by Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Trump obsequiously courted Vladimir Putin. He obligingly trashed Nato and the EU. And he clashed with Putin’s arch-foe – Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelenskiy – whom he notoriously (and impeachably) pressured in a bid to discredit Biden.

Trump, in office, seemed inexplicably beholden to the Kremlin mafia boss. He still does.

Now Putin’s brutal imperialism threatens in turn to damage Trump’s arch-foe – Biden – by derailing his international and domestic priorities and, if Russia wins, discrediting American global leadership.

The symmetry is striking. Horror in Ukraine, directed from Moscow, nobbles Joe’s chances in 2024. It’s almost like the Don and the Donald are working together. Perish the thought!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Click on the link below for the video. A must watch.

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/stat ... 0xP_lWRYgg --->EU President Ursula. “We need to buy Russian oil so Putin doesn’t make more profits elsewhere”. These people are twisting themselves in pretzels to come up with a strategy. They are also economically illiterate.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ks_sachin »

Admiral you are doing pretzels a disservice.
This is more like a Monty Python sketch.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

If an asteroid hits planet Earth tomorrow. Some people will find a way to blame Trump.

The Simon Tisdell article is an example of that phenomenon.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

The Britshits like Simon are liars par excellence, just look at the Britshit history of the Raj era and you would want to puke at the unadulterated nonsense they fabricated while looting India completely and killing 80-90 million Indians.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Rakesh wrote:Click on the link below for the video. A must watch.

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/stat ... 0xP_lWRYgg --->EU President Ursula. “We need to buy Russian oil so Putin doesn’t make more profits elsewhere”. These people are twisting themselves in pretzels to come up with a strategy. They are also economically illiterate.
Admiralji there are more pretzels being churned out.

The European Commission has suggested kick-starting an embargo on Russian oil by giving up on seaborne deliveries, while delaying a ban on pipeline supplies. The EU's executive arm says shipments of oil through the Druzhba pipeline, which connects Russia to Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria and Germany, should for now be spared from the embargo that the bloc is looking to impose on Moscow over its military offensive against Ukraine.

// some pigs are more equal - George Orwell

As for supplies by sea, all EU states are to give up on Russian crude delivered by tankers in six months and refined petroleum products in eight months, the sources said.

// just 6 months; i am sure there will be another extension granted.


Meanwhile Serbia secures new gas contract with Russia
Belgrade has agreed a new three-year gas supply contract with Moscow, Serbian president has announced. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on Sunday he had agreed a new three-year gas contract with Moscow during phone talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. “I cannot speak about the price now, all details will be agreed with Gazprom,” Vucic told reporters. Belgrade has refused to join anti-Russian sanctions and maintains ties with Moscow. Serbia has enjoyed strong political and economic ties with Russia for years.
Last edited by bala on 30 May 2022 09:36, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

NRao wrote:Blame game is out folks

Ukraine conflict is O V E R

Simon Tisdall :: The Donald and the Kremlin Don: how Trump’s toxic legacy helps Putin
Biden has made things worse. In my opinion.

Afghanistan - There was no need for Biden to honor the Doha agreement. He had reneged on other decisions of Trump and its disingenuous to blame Turmp for the chaotic withdrawal. After that he froze all the Central bank funds of Afghanistan, including the life savings of ordinary Afghans.

Russia - Given his ties with Ukraine, he accelerated the process of arming Ukraine and provoking Russia.

Iran - He could have renewed the Nuclear deal that Obama signed and was a foreign policy triumph for that Dem administration. Russia cooperating with Iran on Nuclear tech will be a nightmare scenario for US. Russia is probably not doing that only because they have Saudi cooperation to keep oil prices high. The Israel-Saudi friendship has not improved US ties with Saudi.

Ties with Turkey and China worsened. India still under CATSAA, more lectures on human rights, etc
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Poland demands more refugee money from EU

Brussels has offered only €144.6 million to help Warsaw shoulder the costs of hosting 3 million Ukrainians, and the money hasn’t arrived. None of the €144.6 million that the European Commission offered to help Warsaw get through the Russia-Ukraine crisis has been transferred, Polish Deputy Interior Minister Pawel Szefernaker told the Polish Press Agency in an article posted on Saturday. Given that Poland will incur billions of euros in costs as by far the top destination for Ukrainian refugees, the EU support that has been promised so far is far from enough, he said. Poland’s government has given Ukrainian refugees free health care, education and other services. About 80% are reportedly housed in the private homes of Polish citizens. More than 3.5 million Ukrainians fleeing the fighting in their country have crossed into neighboring Poland since Russia began its military offensive against Kiev three months ago, according to a United Nations estimate. Some of those refugees have continued on to other countries.

// ouch this is hurting the EU nations big time.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by prahaar »

NRao wrote:As a place holder:

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 4612152321
Welcome to the new reality

India has sent medical supplies to Russia to assist Russian forces.

Large shipment of humanitarian aid including drugs manufactured in India.
A loaded tweet, IMO.
NRaoji, I recall reading on Twitter that it was 3 tonnes.

A related news item is here: http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2022/05 ... sends.html

As a context, India has been regularly supplying Ukraine with tens of tonnes humanitarian aid, with substantial pharmaceutical aid. This was also stated by our foreign minister in parliament.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Baikul »

Need to pay attention to Poland in all this. It certainly seems to be gunning to become amongst the most powerful military in Europe. Consider:

- 32 F -35 A aircraft on order

- Deal to acquire 500 HIMARS. Suffice to note that the US Army has only 375 of these! 2 years Poland had purchased 20 for around $490M, so you do the math on this new order.

- Request to purchase 4 patriot batteries (already have 2). I believe cost is $1B per battery

- Ordered 1 battery of the Common Anti-Air Modular Missile air defense system from UK; 23 additional planned

- $4.5B deal to acquire 250 Abram Tanks

US contractors will be happy, extra jobs for constituents will make the politicians happy. Everyone’s happy.

Poland has the history, resentment and will to fight Russia. More than other NATO allies, IMO Poland is USA’s mailed fist (or catspaw, if you like) in Europe.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Something for all to consider. Not that neocons will, but, here goes:

https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1531289825227292672
#US will not deliver missiles to #Ukraine to reach #Moscow and #Russia won't deliver missiles to countries in Latin America to reach #Washington.

Good equilibrium and bargain.
^^^^^ That is the end of the Monroe Doctrine

And, a stat
The number of African, Asian, Middle Eastern and South American countries who have imposed sanctions on #Russia is 0.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/AlexeiArora/status/ ... 0JeFqBQZvA ---> Confirmed: India & Russia have worked out a fertilizer barter deal that bypasses USD. Russia will supply fertilizers via a barter system that avoids US sanctions; Russian importers will exchange fertilizers for various Indian commodities, including tea, raw materials & auto parts.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Kati »

Negative views of Russia mainly limited to western liberal democracies, poll shows

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... poll-shows
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

India secures fertiliser supplies from Russia
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 1-amp.html
30 May 2022
To hedge against geopolitical flux and globally high prices, India opened government-to-government talks in February with Russia for the long-term import of fertilisers.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

^^^^
Will this invite CAATSA sanctions? :mrgreen:

https://twitter.com/AlexeiArora/status/ ... FojeVmjfuw ----> Confirmed: India & Russia have worked out a fertilizer barter deal that bypasses USD. Russia will supply fertilizers via a barter system that avoids US sanctions; Russian importers will exchange fertilizers for various Indian commodities, including tea, raw materials & auto parts.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ks_sachin »

Last edited by ks_sachin on 31 May 2022 11:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

Rakesh wrote:^^^^
Will this invite CAATSA sanctions? :mrgreen:

https://twitter.com/AlexeiArora/status/ ... FojeVmjfuw ----> Confirmed: India & Russia have worked out a fertilizer barter deal that bypasses USD. Russia will supply fertilizers via a barter system that avoids US sanctions; Russian importers will exchange fertilizers for various Indian commodities, including tea, raw materials & auto parts.
Let's go CAASTA! :rotfl:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Dilbu »

As expected.
Biden will not supply Ukraine with long-range rockets that can hit Russia
Joe Biden has said the US will not supply Ukraine with rockets that can reach into Russia, in an attempt to ease tensions with Moscow over the potential deployment of long-range missiles with a range of about 185 miles.

The White House has been weighing up pleas from Ukraine – which is losing ground in the battle for Donbas – for multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) to offset Moscow’s increasingly effective use of long-range artillery, amid Russian warnings that doing so would cross a red line.

“We are not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that can strike into Russia,” Biden told reporters on Monday after arriving back at the White House after a weekend in Delaware.
The precise meaning of Biden’s remark on Monday was unclear, but it was consistent with other briefings from the weekend that the White House was willing to provide MLRS as long as it withheld the longest-range missiles.

That was repeated on Monday. One senior US official said: “MLRS is under consideration, but nothing is on the table with long-range strike capabilities.”

The former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev described Biden’s remarks as “reasonable” and warned that if his country’s cities had been struck, then Russian forces would “have struck at the centres of these criminal decisions”.
NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Bye bye Ukraine! Nice to have known you.

Blinken’s Indo-Pacific Blueprint

With a bye line from Bangalore, India !!!!!!

WSJ puts her weight behind the new neocon adventure.
A clear statement of American national strategy that deserves bipartisan support
So, I really hope ALL of you will pivot East. Hope to meet you all in Taiwan.

Now for some comic relief.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken gave his long-awaited speech laying out the Biden administration’s China policy last week at George Washington University. It was a clear statement of American national strategy that will be closely read by foreign ministries and leaders around the world. {who is going to take this joker seriously }Since 1945, Mr. Blinken said, America and its allies have built a global order that has to a large degree kept the peace and promoted the well-being of people around the world. The system needs to be modernized and reformed, but the defense of that system remains the cornerstone of President Biden’s foreign policy.


{ laying the foundation for Kissinger's speech. Make peace with Putin }
No country, Mr. Blinken said, had benefited from this order more than China, whose current power and prosperity were due to the opportunities the American-backed system offered for growth through trade. Rather than using its power to uphold and develop the world system, however, China has chosen to challenge it. Calling the 2020s a “decisive decade,” Mr. Blinken pledged to work with American allies to compete effectively with China economically, diplomatically and militarily to ensure the survival and prosperity of the current world system.


{ this is already not going well. Putin at least was logical - left a paper trail of every event for anyone to see. China has lobbed first counter salvo. WE ARE A POLE }
The speech didn’t go over well in Beijing. In Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin’s words, the rules-based international order that the U.S. claims to defend “is nothing but a set of ‘house rules’ established by the US and a handful of other countries to maintain the so-called ‘order’ led by the US.” As for American plans to create and strengthen alliances and trading relations capable of balancing Chinese power, Wang Wenbin fumed that “forging ‘small blocs’ is against the trend of history. . . . This move to gang up on China will get no support and is doomed to fail.”

Recent developments in the South Pacific seem to bear Mr. Wang out. China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, arrived in the Solomon Islands Thursday to sign a cooperation agreement with the strategically located island nation that could extend China’s military presence well beyond Taiwan and potentially threaten the shipping lanes between the U.S. and Australia. Wang Yi is on an eight-nation tour of the South Pacific as China hopes that more Pacific Island nations will sign on to far-reaching security and economic agreements.

...........
NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

EU is in chaos. They have no reserves of energy and have worked very diligently to cut Russian oil supplies.

Spiraling inflation.

Food shortages.

Wait another 2 months, let reality sink in, and light the political Fuze. See Europe light up like never before.

I expect Russia to get her pound of flesh for the sinking of the Moskova, 1000 tanks, etc. She is coming. And, Russia is the bap of Iran.

Russian missiles in Cuba? One or two Air Craft Carriers sunk? Dunno.

Fun times
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

Indonesia is looking to buy russian crude and they may be making payment via India


https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/indones ... ssian-oil/

Pertamina’s CEO Nicke Widyawati said that the firm saw “an opportunity to buy from Russia at a good price,” in the wake of the invasion, which has prompted the advanced democracies to impose a raft of sanctions and led the price of Russian oil to tumble.

“Politically, there’s no problem as long as the company we are dealing with was not sanctioned. We have also discussed the payment arrangement, which may go through India,” she told parliament.

Pertamina is searching for a crude oil supply for its Balongan refinery in West Java, which produces gasoline, gasoil, jet fuel, and polypropylene for supply to the densely-populated western half of Java as well as for the capital Jakarta. Nicke said that the refinery is currently in the process of an upgrade that will allow it to refine all types of crude oil, as well boosting its daily capacity from 125,000 to around 150,000 barrels per day. (Currently, Balongan can only process crude oil with a low sulfur content, which is relatively expensive.)

This opens it up to purchases of Russia’s Ural crude oil, the price of which has fallen far below Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, since the February 24 invasion. One oil industry analyst suggested that the gap between the prices for Russian crude and Brent crude could now be as much as $30 per barrel. (The price of Brent crude is currently just over $112.)
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

chetak wrote:
. One oil industry analyst suggested that the gap between the prices for Russian crude and Brent crude could now be as much as $30 per barrel. (The price of Brent crude is currently just over $112.)
And.

The Europeans, in their infinite wisdom, are paying $30 more per barrel.

IF the reserve currency meanwhile moves to any other than the US dollar, we are in for massive turmoil. Ukraine will not exist. I would expect "European Union" itself to fragment. And, will not be surprised to see even NATO split.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

The Russian tactic should be not to create a massive destabilisation of American & western economic hegemony in one swoop which will most likely generate a regime change effort like none we have seen so far.

They should simply wean away the non-international community and show them alternatives exist and can be beneficial without kowtowing to the west. Its a once in a century opportunity for Russia to increase its influence, become desirable and be more open to the world, and breakaway from the imaginary box the west has drawn around it, which somehow despite all of Putin's nationalism, they have implicitly accepted and proudly but erroneously stayed within.

Its time for Russia to realise the western globalisation model is not swallowed hook, line and sinker by large swaths of the world and there is ample space for it to not remain uni-dimensional with just mil supplies, and invisible commodities, but engage the world multi-dimensionally through its businesses, culture and influence.

That would make for a better multipolar world which India would also thrive in, than a bipolar disorder world.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

The whole Russian rouble for oil business is upending the American Petro dollar Bretton woods system. the USD is sure started its ride down . I am gonna call the thing Putin's gambit (c)brf

lots of folks thought it was for stabilizing the rouble ., now the very foundation of American hegemony is getting hacked off


Not so long ago a middle east dictator was popped off for even thinking of an alternative to the petro dollar , also Saddam
Last edited by kit on 31 May 2022 19:26, edited 2 times in total.
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